Van Posted December 29, 2012 Report Share Posted December 29, 2012 The Sentiment Thread - Identifying tops and bottoms As we know, market tops and bottoms are forged at times of peak optimism/pessimism. So this thread is to identify common indicators and mainstream signs that we are at those peaks & bottoms. LINKS ===== NAAIM Sentiment----- : http://www.naaim.org...ager-sentiment/ Investors intelligence : http://www.investorsintelligence.com/x/charts/sentimentChart?_period=3y&stype=diff&sp500=y&w=600&h=400 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Van Posted December 29, 2012 Author Report Share Posted December 29, 2012 NAAIM is recording near record bullish sentiment: http://postimage.org/image/65nchcai3/ Mentioned here too: http://seekingalpha.com/article/1082031-the-bears-need-to-stick-to-their-guns Interesting SP500 earnings chart - looks highly vulnerable to a downturn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Van Posted December 29, 2012 Author Report Share Posted December 29, 2012 The President of the USA making the cover of Time Magazine is a huge warning flag that this wagon is about to go off the cliff: As far as mainstream contrarian warning signs go, mark my words that this one is right up there: http://www.syracuse....e_magazine.html 2013 is shaping up to be a monumentous year, right on cue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted December 30, 2012 Report Share Posted December 30, 2012 Interesting to see that positive sentiment as SPY slides over 5 days The positive sentiment (amongst small investors) has been evident in the Gold market (I heard), even as gold has been weak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Van Posted December 30, 2012 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2012 Interesting to see that positive sentiment as SPY slides over 5 days What's most significant is that the Mid Nov market "bottom" was made with nothing like the washout in sentiment that usually occurs at market bottoms, and to me that suggests that there is no short-covering fuel to propel us higher, and we will need to make new lows that really knock the stuffing out of the bullish sentiment - ie, an NAAIM reading of sub-40. The VIX index is another great sentiment gauge, and that barely registered any sort of "panic" that you would expect at significant bottoms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Van Posted December 30, 2012 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2012 This is a complacent market. Investors are still asleep; this is Nothing Like Panic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted December 30, 2012 Report Share Posted December 30, 2012 What's most significant is that the Mid Nov market "bottom" was made with nothing like the washout in sentiment that usually occurs at market bottoms, and to me that suggests that there is no short-covering fuel to propel us higher, and we will need to make new lows that really knock the stuffing out of the bullish sentiment - ie, an NAAIM reading of sub-40. The VIX index is another great sentiment gauge, and that barely registered any sort of "panic" that you would expect at significant bottoms. Makes sense... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giantbat Posted January 6, 2013 Report Share Posted January 6, 2013 What's most significant is that the Mid Nov market "bottom" was made with nothing like the washout in sentiment that usually occurs at market bottoms, and to me that suggests that there is no short-covering fuel to propel us higher, and we will need to make new lows that really knock the stuffing out of the bullish sentiment - ie, an NAAIM reading of sub-40. The VIX index is another great sentiment gauge, and that barely registered any sort of "panic" that you would expect at significant bottoms. Can VIX be manipulated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted January 7, 2013 Report Share Posted January 7, 2013 Can VIX be manipulated? Possibly, but it would be frighteningly expensive to do that - so probably not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Van Posted January 8, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 8, 2013 Investors' Intelligence now looking peaky: http://postimage.org/image/vp7l12szb/ update: http://www.investors...0=y&w=600&h=400 VIX sits near multi-year lows. There is a confluence of strongly bullish sentiment signals, which is bearish for prices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted January 12, 2013 Report Share Posted January 12, 2013 Yes. Even Bloomberg was talking about how Sentiment was getting to one-sided, and a Top may be near Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Van Posted January 15, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2013 Is it time to be contrarian? This is a terrific read, and has picked up the general high sentiment: http://thegreatbearm...blogspot.co.uk/ A few days ago, President Obama was named "Person of the Year" on Time Magazine and appeared on the magazine cover. The magazine cover picture can be seen here. The Magazine Cover Indicator is a peaking signal --- it is an indication that the "Obama brand" is approaching a peak of massive scale and a multi-year decline is imminent. If anyone has read any books by David Dremen, they revisit exactly this sort of stuff and make a very compelling case for taking your money off the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Van Posted January 15, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2013 Obama current approval rating: 56% http://www.forbes.com/sites/johnzogby/2013/01/13/president-obama-rides-high-into-inauguration/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted January 15, 2013 Report Share Posted January 15, 2013 Looking high, but the market could still go on rising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Van Posted January 15, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2013 This article is from 23rd Dec but still highly relevant (obviously): http://www.thetechnicaltake.com/2012/12/23/investor-sentiment-this-for-certain/ In a span of 4 weeks, investors (as represented by the “dumb money” indicator) have gone from a state of despair to one of euphoria. In over 20 years of data, this is the shortest time it has ever taken the indicator to go from extremely bearish to extremely bullish. I am not sure what to make of this tidbit of information, but it does point out how silly and fickle investors have become. One minute they are bearish, and the next they are bullish. --------------------- Interpret that however you want! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted January 15, 2013 Report Share Posted January 15, 2013 COMMENT by Paul Thomason, Elliott Wave Market Service I came across this article by Tyler Durden at Zero Hedge which provides a very insightful summary of the extreme bullish optimism that belies the market at the present time. You need to be aware that these conditions mirror or even exceed the extreme levels seen at the all time highs in 2007. There's some links in the article that are also worth reading if you time, here it is - 'Hedge Fund Most Levered And Long Since 2004!' Meanwhile, in the markets - SNAFU, After the rally from over-extended volatility recedes, the fact remains that investors are far too optimistic and a major reversal is at hand. As far as volatility goes, don't be fooled by short term extreme movements. Volatility is now intermediate bullish and is headed sharply higher, and as direct result equity markets are headed sharply lower - comprende? In the meantime, let's continue to defer our analytics models to tell us when that next major move lower is technically confirmed as being 'underway'. To find out more, please log-in to view the Daily US Market Forecast for January 14, 2012 which is now available. elliottwavemarketservice.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Van Posted January 15, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2013 II reading now at/near an 18 month high: http://www.investorsintelligence.com/x/charts/sentimentChart?_period=3y&stype=diff&sp500=y&w=600&h=400 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Van Posted January 21, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2013 Sentiment peaking with Obama's 2nd Inauguration? http://politicaltick...ugural-address/ The Stars are out in force... http://www.dailymail...led-Banner.html America is feeling like it's made the right choice........ The ride gets rocky from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Van Posted January 31, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2013 I'm very willing to stick my neck out an saying this is now a MAJOR PEAK in sentiment and prices: NAAIM record reading: http://www.naaim.org...dsenttrend.aspx II 18 month high: http://www.investors...0=y&w=600&h=400 Obama 60% approval rating: http://www.washingtonpost.com/page/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2013/01/30/National-Politics/Polling/release_199.xml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
littledavesab Posted January 31, 2013 Report Share Posted January 31, 2013 Im feeling good, usually a contra indicator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 1, 2013 Report Share Posted February 1, 2013 I'm very willing to stick my neck out an saying this is now a MAJOR PEAK in sentiment and prices: NAAIM record reading: http://www.naaim.org...dsenttrend.aspx II 18 month high: http://www.investors...0=y&w=600&h=400 You could be right. A bottom for Gold & Gold shares is possible too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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