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Historical Data : S&P 500, Gold, Bonds / and LT Charts

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Historical Data : S&P 500, Gold / and Charts


SPX / S&P 500 ... update


Irrational Exhuberance Chart / Robert Shiller
SPX Data w/ adjustments : http://www.econ.yale...ata/ie_data.xls

Average Monthly Performance Since 1971

Return in January has been 1.14%
Return in February has been -0.1%
Return in March has been 1.18%
Return in April has been 1.49%
Return in May has been 0.14%
Return in June has been -0.02%
Return in July has been 0.96%
Return in August has been -0.01%
Return in September has been -0.52%
Return in October has been 0.74%
Return in November has been 1.5%
Return in December has been 1.7%

/source : http://www.davemanue...orical-data.php

Historical Data
(SPX Prices)
Google ------ : http://www.google.co...?q=INDEXSP:.INX
DaveManuel : http://www.davemanue...00-trade-on.php
Robt. Shiller : http://www.econ.yale...hiller/data.htm

(Gold prices)
Back to 1833 : http://www.kitco.com...oricalgold.html

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Updated, using Shiller's spreadsheet




For those who think: "Stocks are cheap", you'd better think again.

Dividend yields are below the level they were at back in 1929, before the great Wall Street Crash.

We are only tolerating such low yields because of "Financial Repression" - ie record low interest rates.



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The Gold-to-Dividends Ratio


This Ratio is something that has made great intuitive sense to me for a long time.

I have wanted to look at it over many decades, but I did not have the data to do that until I stumbled across the Excel spreadsheet on Professor Shiller's website earlier today. (I spend most of the afternoon adding the Monthly Gold data, so now I am able to run the chart):




I find the chart very revealing.


Trigger Levels:



+ Below 20, you want to be Selling Stocks, and Buying Gold

+ Approaching 80 or higher, you want to by Selling Gold and Buying Stocks


Current Level:

Gold ($1,600) to SPX-divs ($31.25) is: 51.20


Recent High was: August 2011

Gold ($1923.70) to SPX-divs ($24.90-Aug.'11) was: 77.25, or

Gold ($1923.70) to SPX-divs ($24.62-July'11) was: 78.13.


The record high was 1980, when the Ratio near 120 :1 at the beginning of 1980.


For 15 months (from Dec.1979 to Feb.1981) it was above 80, providing a long exit window.


A long slide in the Gold price, culminating in Gordon Brown's selling 60% of the UK Gold reserves between 1999 and 2002, helped to provide a nice long Gold buying window. The Gold-to-SPX-dividends ratio was below 20 for over 5 years from Nov. 1997 to Dec. 2002. The low Ratio was Aug. 1999, when Gold was $256.70 and Dividends were 16.38. for a low Ratio of 15.67.


Assuming SPX Dividends of 32, some Gold price Targets can be generated, as follows:


Rx 80 : $2,560

Rx100: $3,200

Rx120: $3,840


I note Jim Sinclair's targets (as follows)- is he using something similar to this Ratio ?


(Some NOTES, received by email):


“The only argument I can see to bail out of gold would be the legitimate end of QE”.


“Anything below $3,500 is a buy. Anything above $4,400 is a sell”.*


“I think China will shoot for a 15% reserves position in gold”.


If SPX-divs climb to 35.00, then $3,500 is 100x and $4,400 is 125.7x

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  • 2 years later...

Time to update this old chart?


Divs (Mar'15) : $ 40.81
Gold price --- : $1,187.2 / 40.81 = 29.09
Gold (Mar'15) : $1,185.5 / 40.81 = 29.05



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MONEY Has to go somewhere - A look at three key asset major classes


Gold, Bonds, Stocks ... update- from 11/4/2007 :: Four, w/OilB : 5/ w/DXY



+ In March 2009, people were worried about a Depression

+ In August 2011, people were worried about inflation and money exiting the USD

+ In March 2015, there was massive complacency, and people were rushing into USD assets,

like stocks and bonds


5 Assets / DXY (the USD etf, basically moves up and Down with Bond, and Oil falls help TLT & DXY



One thing that could help trigger another rally in the USD /DXY... and TLT /Bonds, would be a drop in Oil prices.

That might also drag Gold lower, and could ultimately lead to a Lower "Max Apathy" point. So watch Oil !

(Note: OILB : is the etf for Brent Crude, which is probably now the best benchmark for world oil prices, not WTI.

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Some interesting analysis above - and also a recent piece from Tony Caldaro on when bond prices might peak - which he expects imminently should the 34 year bond price cycle play out (I appreciate many have been waiting for the bond market to turn for a considerable while).


If you were planning to invest for the very long term - ie to create an income that you could draw via capital gains from time to time would an investment in an inverse bond fund be a potentially good investment if well timed now? Tony notes that at its low the 30 year bond was 2.23% and its high was 15.21% in 1981. (around 3% now) So if you could buy an inverse tracker now and hold into either a bond market spike or for the very long term until Interest rates "normalise" would that not be a better investment than chasing assets with high prices and low yields (shares, corporate bonds, or property etc).


Tony also argues that the 1 yr bond leads the rest of the rates including the Fed Funds rate.


What rate would you buy to maximise volatility and hence profits (1yr, 10 yr etc) and would you wait until the first US IR rise to wait for the adverse market reaction to the rise and hence potential fall in bond prices before taking on such an investment?


Interested in thoughts



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TONY C on Bonds:


"Once the 30YR yield (TYX) rises above a previous high (4%)... the bear market in yields is over"




Bond yields tend to move in 34 year cycles and there is very little sound data to go on much past the last 50 years, comparisons between the two maturities are limited to the 1981 yield peak. Then the 10YR and 30YR peaked within weeks of each other in the fall of 1981. They, amazing as it may sound, have been gradually declining for the past 34 years. When one considers the peak 30YR yield in 1981 was 15.21% and the recent low was 2.23%. It is quite clear, on average, yields do not move much at all. When compared to the stock market, for example, the DOW has risen from 1,000 to 18,000 during the same period.


. . .

During the entire decline from 1981-2015 the 30YR yield has made a steady series of lower highs. In fact, every high in yield has run into resistance at the monthly 89EMA. Notice how yields have risen into that EMA, get slightly above (less than 50 bps), then immediately reverse. The current level of the EMA is 3.63%. Since this EMA has been declining steadily over the years, the high points in yield have been declining steadily too. What this suggests is once the 30YR yield rises above a previous high, the recent high was 3.98%, the bear market in yields is over. And a new 34 year bull market in yields in underway.

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Update - to a chart on this historic thread


I said then: "Looks like GLD will touch the (unrecogised, but important) 480d MA today"... update



GLD / Gold-- GLD-chart : LT-chart



If GLD closes above $122 (x 10.4= $1,269, it will have made it through several important Resistance levels


Here's a longer term version of the chart ;


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  • 3 months later...

LONG TERM DOW Charts and cycles


(Just found the first chart that I made years ago when I was packing)




Low1 : 1788

Start : 1842

Low3 : 1896

Low4 : 1950

Low5 : 2004 : Oct.2002?


That Low in the 54 year (about 2004) cycle was timely ... update




The SEVEN YEAR Cycle - note sharp drops when the cycle peak comes "late"


Cycle # : HighDate : ---Level-- / --LowDate----- : ---Level--- : Points-Fall : %-Drop // High-No. : Low-No. :

X-Cyc.1 : 08/25/87 : $2,722.42 / 12/04/87-frid . : $1,766.74 : 00,955.68 : - 35.1% :

X-Cyc.2 : 02/01/94 : $3,964.01 / 11/23/94-wed. : $3,674.63 : 00,289.38 : - 7.30% :

X-Cyc.3 : 01/14/00 : 11,722.98 / 10/15/02-wed. : $7,286.27 : 04,436.71 : - 37.8 % :

X-Cyc.4 : 10/09/07 : 14,164.53 / 03/09/09-mon : $6,547.05 : 07,617.48 : - 53.8 % :

X-Cyc.5 : 05/19/15 : 18,312.39 / 09/15/15-ooo. : 13,600.00 : 05,000.00 : - xx.x % :

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It is easy to "forget" what you never experienced...


Sep 02 12:46pm:

The wild stock market gyrations may have scared many investors.



If anything, the young investors are doubling down, opening new accounts and buying stocks.
Robinhood, a stock trading app that is popular with Millennials, saw a 100% increase in new accounts on Monday, when the stock market tanked over 1,000 points at the open.
. . .
Young investors seem unmoved by China's economic slowdown and its domino effect on the global economy, which was behind much of the stock gyrations, says Gijs Nagel, CEO of Degiro.
"It's not something they feel is real to them," says Nagel. "They don't see that connection in their own personal lives."


The Dow remembers better than they do... update



The projected 7-year low in 1994, from this old chart of mine,

proved to be one of the most minor dips (- 7.3%) in the series of seven year cycle lows:



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Nikkei versus the Dow (in its day) - 60 years apart




The Magnitude and shape was very similar - and the Nikkei peak was also of great importance


(this is from my book on Cycles, written about 25 years ago)


Nikkei-225 ... update


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  • 1 month later...

A fascinating long term chart - Stocks are still very expensive vs. falling earnimgs

> https://stockcharts.com/articles/decisionpoint/2015/10/sp-500-earnings-trending-downward.html



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  • 4 months later...

Will surprise inflation wreck the Stock Market? . . . . . . see new CRB thread


Oil, Copper, and the CRB have fallen a long way, and maybe have started an important bounce, and even a Bull market


"Big Three" Charts (SPY, GLD, DXY) ... 10d-Intraday : 6mos-D : 2yrs-D : 5yrs-D // CUvsGLDvsCRB



CRB / Commodity Research Bureau index - on its own



CRB- long term - up to 2012 ... & showing the recent Low near 155




Here's one voice talking "Inflation Ahead"


Is Inflation Around the Corner?


The world is awash in worries about deflation, but here in the US it appears that inflation is making a comeback. If this new trend continues, it may catch a lot of investors off guard. Inflation, or the lack thereof, drives financial markets...

. . .

overall inflation took a nose dive lower, nearly crossing the sharp 0% line (which would mark the transition into deflation). We can see that that the collapse in headline inflation pulled core inflation down with it, but to a much lesser extent.



Now, over the last few months, inflation has begun to rebound (black arrows). Many people find this phenomenon strange when they consider that oil is still trading close to its recent lows, near $35/barrel. “Doesn’t oil need to rise for inflation to pick up?” they ask.

The answer is no; it doesn’t. It just needs to stop going down.

The reason oil took such a toll on overall inflation is because oil itself was experiencing massive deflation. The price of oil, when compared to its price a year earlier, kept on falling and falling. But now, oil has been sharply suppressed for over a year, and this effect is diminishing.

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  • 5 months later...

I Bought SPY PUTS on Friday, in anticipation of what I thought could be...

A KEY REVERSAL... and it was !

Also note the "toppy" long term chart for bonds


SPY Stocks / 10d





A CHART to watch now: TLT / Bonds !


TLT / Long-Bond etf ... update : All-data / 10-d : LAST: 138.36-0.81 / O: 139.73, H: 140.69, L: 138.22 / Vol: 11.9mn







A Key Reversal !


Here's Why Markets Loved Janet Yellen's Speech at Jackson Hole
Fortune- 6 hours ago
That's the takeaway from the Fed Chair speech Friday morning at the Kansas City Fed's annual gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyo. Yellen had ...
Stocks Fall After Yellen's Remarks
Wall Street Journal- 2 hours ago



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