Peak Debt Posted June 30, 2013 Report Share Posted June 30, 2013 I found this very intriguing chart on APF, comparing the gold price movement over the past few years to the famous 'typical bubble' pattern chart that we've all seen before. One view says the gold bubble has already burst. The other view says the gold bubble has just finished the bear trap phase and now prices will really take off! What do you guys think is the more likely scenario? Gold is a classic bubble - it follows the typical pattern precisely. Goldbugs. The time to panic... is now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happy Posted June 30, 2013 Report Share Posted June 30, 2013 I found this very intriguing chart on APF, comparing the gold price movement over the past few years to the famous 'typical bubble' pattern chart that we've all seen before. One view says the gold bubble has already burst. The other view says the gold bubble has just finished the bear trap phase and now prices will really take off! What do you guys think is the more likely scenario? Gold is a classic bubble - it follows the typical pattern precisely. Goldbugs. The time to panic... is now. Nice analogy! I suspect the 2nd scenario, give or take. (I doubt the Moon would be as richly priced). If I recall correctly, Glenn Neely has some catastrophic forecasts for Gold along the lines of the 1st scenario. And I wouldn't be surprised if the Elliot Wave guys have a similar scenario in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happy Posted June 30, 2013 Report Share Posted June 30, 2013 Glenn Neely: "Gold's Bull Market is Over - Multi-Year Bear Market has Begun" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notanewmember Posted June 30, 2013 Report Share Posted June 30, 2013 It is hard to call a top or pick a bottom. We are concerned with the journal between the two. Waves, cycles, Mandelbrot fractal patterns occur over and over. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G_GBwuYuOOs Is a dog big? Yes if you are a Ant. Is an Ant big? Yes if you are a bacteria. Is a bacteria big? Yes if you are a virus. And so on. It is all relative and therefore if you weren't human you cannot judge what is big or what is small. I.e. You cannot say this is a top or that is the bottom.. You must take yourself outside of your body and look at everything objectively. The important thing is that we ride the journey between the two points (and profit). Ignore the numbers on the right hand side of the chart. ^Why gold at $1500 was a crucial level. Ignore the feeling that we should be at the beginning of this chart or nearer the end. This chart HAS NO BEGINNING or END - it is the same patterns recurring over and over, over a undefined time frame. If we never get a new buy signal, we are not worried, and move on to something else. We know it is over on this current time line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted June 30, 2013 Report Share Posted June 30, 2013 Interesting thread - a useful counterpoint to some of the others started recently... Three Gold price measures worth a look : (1) "Real" gold prices, adjusted for CPI inflation: (2) Gold versus the Reserves of the major Central Banks ... and maybe this too. (3) Gold-to-Oil Price Ratio How many barrels of WTI Crude can you get for One Ounce of Gold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted June 30, 2013 Report Share Posted June 30, 2013 Even if that Neowave count is right, Gold might first get a nice big bounce up from near where it is now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happy Posted July 1, 2013 Report Share Posted July 1, 2013 Even if that Neowave count is right, Gold might first get a nice big bounce up from near where it is now Agreed. For what its worth, from the Neely thread: LINK 18. April, 2013 transcript I’ve been warning customers for a long time that I thought the high of $1,900 in 2011 was probably the top. I said there was a chance we might go comfortably higher a little bit, but I kept repeating that most likely was the end of the pattern and that it would finish at a lower high. . . . We needed to see a drop in the gold market bigger and faster than anything we’ve seen during Wave 5, which I think started way back in 2008 or early 2009. That has been accomplished. That’s the first stage of confirmation. A lot of people think, “This big sell-off in gold is probably done. All the weak ends have been shaken out. The banks and all these people have been holding. It was just overly subscribed and invested in. It’s just temporary. We’re eventually going to go higher.” Wave Theory says completely the opposite. This confirmation event indicates that Wave 5 is finished. Of course, Wave 5 is the end of an even bigger pattern. After this first decline, we might bounce for a little while, and maybe even bounce quite a bit. It could bounce as much as $150 off this current low, but then we need the next stage of confirmation. It won’t be confirming the end of Wave 5. It will be confirming the end of the entire pattern that started at the low in 2005. Unfortunately for anybody long on gold, this requires that we’re going to drop below $1,000 sometime potentially this year. We’re talking about another catastrophic decline in the price of gold to levels that people currently cannot imagine. . . . If everybody got extremely concerned and super bearish and pessimistic all of a sudden, that’s probably the low. That has not been the case. It has just been, “Oh my god! What’s happening? Why did this happen? That’s just temporary. Everything is going to get back to normal.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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