British Pound down 10% following UK vote to BREXIT EU - what next?

[Perishabull]

20 year chart - British pound futures

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

5 year chart - British pound futures

 

 

10-d chart : http://tinyurl.com/GBP-10d

[Perishabull]

Huge question mark over EU now as other countries may hold referenda.

[drbubb]

FTSE is still in a downtrend ... update

 

 

And if you are being bombarded by property agents telling you to Buy UK property before it goes up...

 

Send them this link:

> http://hongkong.asiaxpat.com/forums/hong-kong-property-finance/threads/7927f188-ab68-4af1-acc2-d10d433475fc/brexit+-+what+next3f/

 

Haha.
As expected, I am bombarded by property agents telling me it is a great time to buy property in the UK since sterling hit a new low.

There's a chance they will be right, of course

But I think there are some more powerful reasons why this may not be a great time to buy:

+ The UK may close the door to immigrants from the EU, and people may leave the UK, causing demand to drop
+ Interest rates may have to rise in the UK to protect the currency
+ The UK economy may go into recession, cutting jobs, and pushing rents down

Of course, none of those anxious emails that I got mentioned these negative factors.

If you think Sterling is cheap, then buy Sterling. You can wait until things settle down and the waters are more calm, before you buy your next property in the UK.

(Feel free to copy this email, and send it to the manic agents, if they pester you!)

 

===

 

One of the agents who contacted me suggested that I look at buying a London studio, "from GBP 575,000"

Yeah, sure, THAT will work out well in a post-Brexit world. Sure.

[drbubb]

(in edit):

GLD / Gold had a good day : $126.01 +$5.90 : on 34.2M shares

 

GLD ... All / 2yrs / 10-days

 

10-days

=

[notanewmember]

Uncertainty lies ahead, but if Donald Trump gets in as the leader of the worlds most powerful country, history might look back at Brexit as the right decision. The road ahead is long, but at least there is a new direction of travel, where the previous one was rudderless.

 

Trump: 'Brexit a great thing'

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-36606184

[drbubb]

It is all about rejecting Globalism, and rule by unelected elites.

 

All these people who have pushed the Globalist NWO project:

Bush, Blair, Clinton, Cameron, etc. are going out of favor, than goodness (at last!)

 

(in edit - Alex Jones put it this way - in less than 2 minutes);

 

British Exit Spells Doom For World Government Project

 

"The Battle is only just beginning," says PJW

 

Brexit: Dawn of a Populist Uprising

 

"You Lost! Get over it!"

[drbubb]

Ben on Brexit
(he's always thought-provoking, and some of this might even be true):

The EU is bankrupt and that is why its governing structure will fundamentally change
Posted by benjamin
June 27, 2016

The real reason for the ongoing trouble in the European Union, including the recent vote by the British people to leave the bloc, is that the EU is bankrupt. We know in retrospect that the bankruptcy of the Soviet Union was the real reason the Warsaw pact fell apart, with Poland acting as the first domino. For the same reason, we can predict England was the first domino in the collapse of the European Union.

The emerging consensus view is, as Pentagon analysts put it, “Brexit may lead to Frexit (French exit), the collapse of banks, populism, nationalism and anti-globalism.” This is also likely lead to an end to Khazarian mafia sponsored Mulsim immigration.

The situation in France has already become so chaotic that French police say they are becoming too exhausted to deal with the daily, violent demonstrations taking place throughout the country. French President Francois Hollande, who has only 11% public support, is trying to ban demonstrations but it is hard to see who will enforce his “ban.” In other words, France is headed for revolution.

“This is the worst period I recall, there is nothing like it,” is how former Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan described the general situation and the market chaos that followed the Brexit vote.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-24/greenspan-worst-period-i-recall-theres-nothing-it

This may be the worst period Greenspan and his Rockefeller, Bush sponsors can recall but the Rothschilds are saying they made $2.5 trillion in one day on Friday by shorting all the stock markets and going long gold. This is their biggest bonanza since their insider trading on Waterloo. As the Rothschilds say, “the best time to make money is when blood is running on the streets.”

Indeed blood may well start running. Even top CIA experts are publicly saying a revolution is imminent in Europe and the United States.

http://thespiritscience.net/2016/06/26/ex-cia-spy-a-global-open-source-revolution-is-about-to-begin/

However, if properly handled, this situation will be a good thing for the US,
Europe and the rest of the world. If improperly handled, it will lead to chaos,warfare and hardship within Europe, the US and Japan and thus, to a lesser extent, in the rest of the world.

The EU that has gone bankrupt had become even more dictatorial than the Soviet Union ever was, according to Russian President Vladimir Putin. In Putin’s own words: “The percentage of mandatory decisions made by the European Parliament is larger than that of mandatory decisions made by the High Council of the USSR concerning its member-republics.”

http://www.informationliberation.com/?id=55071

Sources in the gnostic illuminati and the White Dragon Society say that if things are properly handled what is eventually going to happen is the European nations will form a larger, looser, freer union that will include Russia. In this scenario Britain will be a neutral country linked to Europe by free trade, somewhat like Switzerland, they say.

The bankruptcy of the EU was triggered by the bankruptcy of Deutschebank, the largest bank in Europe, according to members of the Rothschild banking dynasty. Deutschebank is now under Chinese control, they say. If the Chinese had not stepped in to save Deutschebank, its collapse would have triggered a domino effect that would have taken down the entire European and then Western banking systems, multiple sources agree.
==
> source: http://benjaminfulford.net/2016/06/27/the-eu-is-bankrupt-and-that-is-why-its-governing-structure-will-fundamentally-change/

[drbubb]

Is the "Brexit hysteria" over?

FTSE has recovered ALL of its losses

 

UKX ... 10-days

 

[Perishabull]

Is the "Brexit hysteria" over?

 

FTSE has recovered ALL of its losses

 

UKX ... 10-days

 

 

 

 

Same with the Dow, back to the close on 22nd June, day before the vote.

 

 

If the UK comes out of the single market it would not bode well, but for now we are still in for at least two years. I think the problems will really start if political will in other EU states leads to other referenda and the breakup of the EU.

 

I watched Brexit the movie yesterday.

 

There were some comparisons with Switzerland and that UK Plc could do very well without the burdens of EU regulation and restrictions imposed on striking trade deals.

[Van]

J-curve recovery next. Seen it all before.

[drbubb]

Yet Gold and Silver are holding up - it's curious

 

I let go some of my Oct. SLV calls and some Jan. GKD calls yesterday, in case Precious metals head back down

[drbubb]

(comments on Brexit from Tony Caldaro's Blog)

 

alexh110 says:

July 2, 2016 at 7:32 am

Do Brexiteers have reverse gears I wonder?
One of their main slogans was “take back control”; but the problem is the UK will relinquish control of its main trading partner. Up ’til now it’s had a lot of influence over EU policy; after Brexit it will have none.
That could be very bad news for the UK economy, especially the financial hub in the City of London, which forms a very large chunk of UK GDP.
The UK has also lost its reputation for stability, which will inevitably mean higher borrowing rates. This along with the weak pound will impact the UK’s ability to service its national debt, possibly leading to a Greek-style default; but with no EU back-stop.
I suspect the public may eventually change their minds about Brexit; but by then it could well be too late.

Reply

• Dex T says:

  July 2, 2016 at 8:12 am

  No, “Brexit” is a done deal.

  Whatever influence they had was coming at an enormous cost to taxpayers as they continuously had to foot the bill for many initiatives. The UK was responsible for 15% of the EU’s budget.

  What the country received in return was highly questionable. Some politicians and bankers made their careers based on it but the majority of citizens were only footing the bill.

  The EU will still continue to trade with the UK – and the UK will have the advantage of making deals favorable to themselves.

  The UK had a long and successful history prior to joining the EU and there’s no reason to believe they won’t once again.

  Reply
  • dan pulford says:

    July 2, 2016 at 8:42 am

    Dex; Well said truth. EU was a drain and the UK stopped it up. The EU has regained their sovereignty.

    Reply
    • alexh110 says:

      July 2, 2016 at 9:51 am

      Is it not highly likely this saving will be more than wiped out by the loss of inward investment due to uncertainties about our future trade relationship with the EU?

      Reply
• mcgcapital says:

  July 2, 2016 at 8:12 am

  We have to see what form any trade agreement takes first. Much has been made of the potential that the City will lose its EU passport and this will mean jobs etc moving over to the EU, but financial institutions in the UK will be subject to MiFid II so will meet the requirements specified by EU regulation. Any attempt to impose trade barriers will affect continental Europe more heavily than the UK as the UK imports more than it exports from the EU, so it won’t happen unless the EU want to damage their own economy. The comparison to Greece isn’t justified – their issue is they don’t control their own currency. The UK’s national debt has a very long term, and yields are falling not rising despite sterling depreciation. The BoE would likely monetise more debt via QE before it would ever get to the point that the government would default on interest payments.

  Reply
  • alexh110 says:

    July 2, 2016 at 9:49 am

    What impact do you expect on gilts from the loss of our AAA rating, and where do you see a floor for sterling? I notice Soros has suggested $1.15.

     

    ==

    > https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2016/07/02/weekend-update-559/#comments

[notanewmember]

Yet Gold and Silver are holding up - it's curious

 

I let go some of my Oct. SLV calls and some Jan. GKD calls yesterday, in case Precious metals head back down

 

Nicolas Darvas chart on gold, bullish

 

[drbubb]

 

Nicolas Darvas chart on gold, bullish

 

 

Is this the dancer? Is he still around?

[notanewmember]

The dancer died not long after writing his final book, I believe in the late 70s. I drew those boxes by hand, after studying all his books.

----

 

 

Some info on GBP vs USD

 

Now at about 1.29

 

.....

And then Norman Lamont (UK's Chancellor of the Exchequer) decided to take the pound out of the ERM.

 

This immediately devalued the pound, and the results were dramatic - the pound plummeted in value, falling to $1.75 within a month, and to just over $1.40 in five months.

Anyone starting a two-week holiday in early September, 1992, might have seen a $1000 hotel bill effectively rise by over £100 from the day they arrived to the day they actually paid the bill. And in six months the pound had been devalued by more than 25%. .....

 

Full article: http://www.miketodd.net/encyc/dollhist-graph2.htm

 

---

 

Interestingly, the FTSE doubled from 1980 to 1985

 

 

...

 

Here in the UK, at ground Zero, some might say. There's a flight to gold FRES, HOC, CEY, FRES, and GPM are starting to motor. If you're in the US, AUY, KGC, AG are about to leave the runway.

 

This week, three UK property funds are frozen as people are withdrawing faster than the asset manager can sell the underlying asset.

Link http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/aviva-becomes-second-uk-property-fund-to-suspend-trading-after-brexit-a7121006.html

 

It's all starting to go the way that the Remainers said, in the short term (capital leaving), and the Leavers, (in the long term, our exports are cheaper). They are seemingly both right.

[drbubb]

Trying to Buy Calls on Sterling today - but they are expensive !

 

FXB / Sterling etf ... update : 6-mos : 10-d :

FXB: $126.00 Aug.125c ($3.30-4.10) : 130c ($1.10-1.40) / Dec.125c ($5.30-6.30) : 130c ($2.95-3.60)

In edit:

I wound up buying Aug.$125c at $3.50... at near the Low of FXB in early trading (below $126, near $125.81)

[drbubb]

Cable / GBP / FXB is trying to put in a bottom

 

Trying to Buy Calls on Sterling today - but they are expensive !

 

FXB / Sterling etf ... update : 6-mos : 10-d :

FXB: $126.00 Aug.125c ($3.30-4.10) : 130c ($1.10-1.40) / Dec.125c ($5.30-6.30) : 130c ($2.95-3.60)

In edit:

I wound up buying Aug.$125c at $3.50... at near the Low of FXB in early trading (below $126, near $125.81)

Share Early : HOfDay : HOfYr : $Close
FXB : 126.50 : 126.78 : 154.85 : 126.42 :

 

GBP - in US$ ... 5-days : 10-d chart : http://tinyurl.com/GBP-10d

[drbubb]

British pound surges after Bank of England opts against cut

The British pound surged Thursday while the country's main stock index faltered after the Bank of England held off from cutting interest rates.

Elsewhere in Europe, stocks retained their recent positive ...

 

==

 

My FXB Calls have nearly doubled since I bought them

[drbubb]

Why is Sterling Lower today?

 

things to know before the open Get ready for a big, busy day.

Here are the five things you need to know before the opening bell rings in New York:

 

GBP in USD ... update

 

1. Great expectations in Great Britain:

The Bank of England is widely expected to cut interest rates Thursday in a bid to support the slowing economy.

The U.K. voted to leave the European Union in June, triggering a slump in the pound and a collapse in business and consumer confidence. Surveys suggest the British economy is already contracting.

Now economists expect the central bank to swoop in with a rate cut, and possibly other stimulus measures such as printing more money to buy government bonds.

U.K. stock markets were flat in the lead up to the rate decision, which is expected at 7 a.m. ET. The pound was trading around $1.33, down slightly from Wednesday and 11% lower than just before the Brexit vote.

> MORE: http://money.cnn.com/2016/08/04/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html

 

====

 

(here's a different point of view):

 

Bank of England should worry about a Brexit boom, not a Brexit bust

The Bank of England is ready to lower interest rates, but Matthew Lynn argues that the greatest risk the U.K. economy faces is not a Brexit bust, but a Brexit boom.

 

Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank of England, is hardly the most reliable guide to anything.

He has warned constantly that interest rates will have to rise soon, but has managed to get through three years in office without changing them even once. He has been through several versions of “forward guidance,” and come up with a range of newfangled ways of managing monetary policy, only to abandon them after a few months. An East German Trabant was more likely to get you to your destination on time.

Even so, if the bank does not cut interest rates tomorrow, and possibly launch another round of quantitative easing, it will come as a major shock to the markets. The sensible move for the bank would be to postpone any cut in rates. The economy is strong enough already.

And yet, that may well come to be viewed a huge mistake.

 

In fact, the British economy was already in a perfectly healthy state when the electorate decided to leave the European Union. Since then, there has been a massive devaluation of the pound GBPUSD, -1.1857% , and the government has effectively abandoned fiscal restraint.

 

What happens when you take an economy running at capacity and stimulate it? It starts to overheat.

 

The real risk for the U.K. is not of a Brexit bust, despite all the warnings in the immediate aftermath of the vote. It is of a Brexit boom — an overheating economy that may ultimately crash. The best way to avoid that would be to keep rates on hold.