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[drbubb]

PHILIPPINES STOCK WARNING
I posted on a viber chat:

"The more I look into the charts, the more Dangerous I think this setup looks!"

PSEI - vs. SMPH, ALI, MEG ... from 8/2016 : VIX : 10d : p2/ Last: 7,947, smph: 38.80, ali: 49.00, meg: 4.86 (agi: 11.74)

Why is this Dangerous?
PSEI looks weak, barely holding up, on the bottom of the long term upwards channel.

The upmove in Property stocks, to a likely cyclical peak in JULY, gave PSEI a Right Shoulder (RS#1= "Prop.Peak")

Many Stocks appear to be running out of momentum.
+ After the July peak, MEG stock collapsed as fear of a loss in POGO demand hit the market
+ MEG and PSEI made a low in Sept.  MEG fell xx% (P6.xx > 4.xx), and PSEI fell xx% (0,000 > 0,000)
+ Some of the fears were dismissed, and PSEI rallied back, led by a few "front-liners", like SMPH and ALI.
+ Many other stocks, and PSEI as a whole remained weak. (I made some money trading a bounce in AGI)
+ The front line property stocks appear to be losing momentum

What is NEXT?  
Another drop very possibly, and if this one is sharp enough, it will break the uptrend in PSEI
BE CAREFUL; Take some profits maybe, use some stops (if you like that technique), & hold off on new Buys.

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MORE charts & comments at the Link below - scroll down!

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Portfolio: GLO: 1,754 / PSEI (6,864)= 25.6%, MBT: 67.75, 0.99%

MBT:  / PSEI (6,864)= MBT: 67.75, 0.99%

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[drbubb]

Using BDO's chart, my added trendlines highlight a likely Right Shoulder in place

Comments from a viber chat:

M (relating to the above chart): "No body going to comment on this?"

To me this is a beautiful chart, and a possible setup for a downwards slide -- unless we get a very quick rise

T: "If there will be a problem, usually banking sector will reflect the concerns"

M: A Property developer or big  construction company going bust, would be the sort of news that might get the slide rolling

T: What if heavy debt from a big property developer is impacting banking sector? What charts would be supporting that possibility?

(example, MEG):

M: I will show you the one chart of MEG (heavy debt) vs ALI (stronger credit)

MEG /Megaworld vs. ALI /Ayalaland, etc ... 12mo : fr.Oct-2018 : 10d / Last: $5.00 vs. $45.00 - ratio: 10%

The year long relative weakness in Metrobank (mtb), was followed by a jump, in MEG into a July high (P6.54), and the a sharp 35% drop to P4.27 in August on heavy trading volume.  Ayalaland (ALI) has held up much better basically at P46-49, suggesting that investor are deserting MEG and its parent (agi), but still willing to hold ALI shares. 

Are there credit-related concerns about MEG?  Is MTB one of MEG's banks?  (the other two major banks are: BDO, tied in with SMDC, and BPI, tied in with Ayala/ALI.).

[drbubb]

(from the Timeline thread)

GOLD versus (Philippines) STOCKS:

Current level iof PSEI is about 10% of the Gold price
… Calculated like this...
PSEI ( 7,947) / Gold ( $1507 x 51.14= Php 77.07k)= 0.103 Oz.

Simple Rule of thumb for Recent Range may be: Expect approx.10% of an Gold Oz to buy you the PSEI.

Or: One Ounces buys approx. 10x the PSEI

GOLD,  Monthly prices since 2000

: $1507 x 51.14= P77,070

PSEI / Phil. Stock Index, since 1988: 10yr.: 5yr.: 1yr. / LAST: 7,947 - chart w/o Labels

SIMPLE RULE?  worked since about 2000...

Buy PSEI below 0.080 oz. / Sell PSEI above 0.120 - or something like that

YrEnd: PHP/$ : Gold : PHgold: +1yr % :  PSEI : +1yr % : PS/oz.
1990 : 28.00 : $392.8 : 10.99k: ===== : 0,651.:  ===== : 0.059:
1991 : 26.67 : $353.2 : P9420: - 14.3%: 1,152.: +77.0%: 0.122:
1992 : 25.32 : $332.9 : P8429: - 10.5%: 1,256.: +9.03%: 0.149:
1993 : 27.79 : $391.8 : 10.89k: +29.2%: 3,196.: +155.%: 0.293:
1994 : 24.15 : $383.3 : P9257:  - 15.0%: 2,786.: - 12.8%: 0.301: End of Millennium "HIGH" for stocks??
1995 : 26.21 : $387.0 : 10.14k: +9.54%: 2,594.: - 6.90%: 0.256:
1996 : 26.29 : $369.3 : P9709:  - 4.25%: 3,171.: +22.2%: 0.327:
1997 : 37.17 : $290.2 : 10.79k: +11.1%: 1,869.: - 41.1%: 0.173:
1998 : 39.07 : $287.8 : 11.24k: +4.17%: 1,969.: +5.35%: 0.175:
1999 : 40.62 : $290.3 : 11.79k: +4.91%: 2,143.: +8.84%: 0.182:
2000 : 49.90 : $272.7 : 13.61k: +16.6%: 1,495.: - 30.2%: 0.110:
2001 : 51.79 : $276.5 : 14.32k: +5.22%: 1,168.: - 21.9%: 0.082:
2002 : 53.52 : $347.2 : 18.58k: +29.7%: 1,018.: - 12.8%: 0.055:
2003 : 55.45 : $416.3 : 23.08k: +24.2%:  N/A - : ===== : =====:
2004 : 56.18 : $435.6 : 24.57k: +6.46%:  N/A - : ===== : =====:
2005 : 53.61 : $513.0 : 27.50k: +11.9%: 2,096.:  ===== : 0.076:
2006 : 49.47 : $632.0 : 31.27k: +13.7%: 2,983.: +42.3%: 0.095:
2007 : 41.74 : $833.8 : 34.80k: +11.3%: 3,622.: +21.4%: 0.104:
2008 : 48.09 : $869.8 : 41.83k: +20.2%: 1,873.: - 48.3%: 0.045: LOW: only 0.045 Oz will buy the PSEI index
2009 : 46.42 : 1087.5 : 50.48k: +20.7%: 3,053.: +63.0%: 0.060:
2010 : 43.95 : 1405.5 : 61.77k: +22.4%: 4,201.: +37.6%: 0.068:
2011 : 43.65 : 1531.0 : 66.83k: +8.19%: 4,372.: +4.07%: 0.065:
2012 : 41.01 : 1657.5 : 67.97k: +1.71%: 5,813.: +33.0%: 0.086:
2013 : 44.10 : 1204.5 : 53.12k: - 11.9%: 5,890.: +1.32%: 0.111:
2014 : 44.69 : 1206.0 : 53.90k: +1.47%: 7,231.: +22.8%: 0.134:
2015 : 47.23 : 1069.0 : 50.59k: - 6.15%: 6,984.: - 3.42%: 0.138:
2016 : 49.82 : 1145.9 : 57.09k: +12.8%: 6,841.: - 2.05%: 0.120:
2017 : 50.39 : 1291.0 : 65.05k: +13.9%: 8,558.: +25.1%: 0.132:
2018 : 52.77 : 1279.0 : 67.49k: +3.75%: 7,466.: - 12.8%: 0.111:
9/’19 : 52.11 : 1485.3 : 77.40k: +14.7%: 7,779.: +4.19%: 0.101: = 10.1% of an Gold Oz req'd to buy PSEI
=====
Sources: PesoCross.XL > www.bsp.gov.ph/statistics/excel/pesocross.xls
Gold London pm, Kitco : https://www.kitco.com/scripts/hist_charts/yearly_graphs.plx

> See TIMELINE thread

[drbubb]

PH Property stocks, are leading the (likely) Rollover in PH & in China stocks too maybe

Both PSEI and China Shares (China A50 Index, traded in HK)... May be ROLLING OVER together

PSEI has been Leading the China index over the past 2-3 years, sometimes Months in advance

HK:2823 (China A50 shares) vs. PSEI ... update : fr. 11.23.16 / Last: $14.84 / 7,825 : Ratio 0.19%

==

BIG TEST?  Coming for Major PH Property shares

Ayalalnd at P 42 ... ALI: update / Last: P 44.00 



Megaworld at P4.40 ... MEG: update / Last: P 4.56 



Together ... update : w/ dmc :

==

[drbubb]

A SUCCESSFUL PH INVESTORS’s views & methods for trading in PH market

I want to share some NOTES (on a No-Name basis, until I get permission)

Saw a surprisingly good presentation on Technical analysis, sponsored by one of the brokerage firms

The presenter Is a Successful self-employed trader investor, who used to work for a big PH bank, And then said he “tripled his salary” when he joined a larger European bank for two years.  Then he went out on his own, and enjoyed enough success as a private trader to buy a P100 Million house about 2-3 years ago. In addition to his own Trading, he also prepares quarterly presentations for various large institutional clients.

He gave a very clear presentation on Technical analysis in front of a group of 6-8 people.  Fortunately, he was willing to entertain questions, and I asked him plenty, as did a few of the other attendees.  This allowed us to get some real depth of understanding into his current views,
And some of the areas where he enjoyed past success.

/ 2 /

Here-in, I will summarise some of the Bigger Picture views he presented, & I found most interesting
(These are not given in the same order they were presented.)

+ He thinks the PH market peaked about two years ago in Jan. 2018, at over 9,000

+ He does use Elliott waves also and thinks we are in the A wave of an long A-B-C correction that could last for some years. He agreed with me observation that we might have recently seen the Wave 2 of wave 2, and so are headed into a bigger drop

PSEI : Thu.1.23.2020: Php 7,616.35 + 147.62, + 1.98%. (ALI: 40.80 + 1.40, + 3.55%, DayH: 41.25)

+ 7500-7600 was key support, and it looks like that is gone for now. (Key Support about 5000 or lower?)
+ Other than Cash, there are no (or very few) safe havens for PH based investors

+ Personally, he moved away from PH stocks about two years ago, and now does most of his investing in the USA and other foreign markets, where etfs, shorts, options and other instruments are allowed

+ He finds it harder to trade now, with some shrinking of volume and illiquidity, as fewer foreign investors are active in PH now..  When he was trading in size in PH a few years ago he sometimes had to struggle to find the volume he wanted without moving the price too much.  (His trade size on a “big” personal trade might have been P 5 Million or more.)

/ 3 /

+ Some of his successful trades include Double Dragon (DD) where he approx. Doubled his money, riding the stock from the breakout just about P10 to P20, but missing out on the wild ride to P80.

And Integrated Micro-Electronics Inc (IMI), where he also made many millions.  There were other successes mentioned, but I did not Get them into my notes.

+ When doing technical analysis he makes extensive use of parallel lines as support and resistance Levels. He likens these to floors and ceilings, and talked about market action being like a tennis ball hitting those levels and trying to break through. He talked about techniques he uses to identify when the action might be ready to make a break. Coiled and tight action below a resistance level with higher lows. Can be a sign of a coming breakout, especially when buying volume rises.

+ We agreed that gaps can be meaningful and can be a warning or confirmation that a trend is changing or has changed.

( I will certainly be interesting in seeing more presentations by this gentleman. And I will show him a copy of these notes, and ask if he would like to join our Viber chat. )

[drbubb]

"The 2020 Starter Portfolio"

PSEI-etc ... fr. 2015:  2017 / 5yr: 2yr: 1yr: 6mo: 10d / 7,370 + GLO:1,889, MBT:xxm TEL:xx, SHLph:xx

Components - he mentioned these specific stocks to me, but this is not really "his" portfolio.

I will call it the "2020 Starter Portfolio":

7,370 +

GLO:1,889, MBT:xxm TEL:xx, SHLph:xx

======

Fritz Ocampo, Chief Investment Officer, Bdo Unibank Inc

Last night, I heard a very interesting Talk by Fritz Ocampo. (Chief Investment Officer, BDO)
Fritz is bullish on the PH economy, and on PH stocks for this year and beyond.
He expects lower rates and more spending to push up growth in 2020, & bring PHP lower.  
In his view, Right now is the time for bargain hunting in Stock Market because of...
two discounts: The "Duterte discount", and some global weakness from CoVid-19.
Du-30’s term will not last much longer, and people with start to look past that soon.
He also thinks the Virus with depress China’s growth rate, not eliminate growth completely.
He expects China's growth rate for 2020 to be cut by roughly half, growing again in 2nd Half.
PH will stand out as the fastest growing economy in the fastest growing part of the World.
At some point, probably soon, international investors will rediscover PH, and the capital
outflows from global investors will reverse to inflows.  PE ratios will rise, and probably
earnings too.  Meantime the Historical support level for PE's just below 15:1 may hold.

If these views are accurate, then the 7,000-7,200 level may be strong support for PSEI.

CHART - PSEI is now near 15X EPS> "An area very likely to generate a bounce...
Or a strong rally."  Let’s see which.
The PH market fell despite growth, because foreign money moved out. That may reverse soon.

DATABANK - PSEI - PE RATIO

Mo.End : PSEI : PEratio : Earns. : Chg. annual :
FYE’95 : 2,594 : 18.860 : P137.5 : ==========
FYE’00 : 1,495 : 14.160 : P105.6 : -23.2/-4% pa
FYE’05 : 2,096 : 15.050 : P139.3 : +31.9/ 5.55%
FYE’10 : 4,201 : 14.031 : P299.4 : +115./ 15.5%
FYE’15 : 6,952 : 19.552 : P355.6 : +18.8/ 3.45%
FYE’16 : 6,841 : 17.371 : P393.8 : +10.7%  p.a. :
FYE’17 : 8,558 : 21.228 : P403.1 : +2.36% p.a. :
FYE’18 : 7,486 : 17.887 : P418.5 : +3.82%  p.a. :
FYE’19 : 7,815 : 16.062 : P486.6 : +16.3%  p.a. :
=====
Jan.19 : 8,007 : 19.118 : P418.8 :
Feb.19 : 7,705 : 18.855 : P408.6 :
Mar.19 : 7,921 : 19.404 : P408.2 :
Jun.19 : 8,000 : 18.521 : P431.9 :
Sep.19 : 7,779 : 16.667 : P466.7 :
Dec.19 : 7,815 : 16.062 : P486.6 : +16.3% p.a. :
Jan.20 : 7,201 : 14.737 : P488.6 :
Feb.20 : 7,370e: 15.0 E :  P490E :
=====

[drbubb]

A PE ratio of 17.5x means investors are willing to pay 18.5 times the kind of money they can make from PSEi stocks. On the other hand, Ravelas said the peso could trade within a range of 50 and 52 to a dollar this year from around 51 against the greenback in 2019.Jan 6, 2020

 

Stock index seen hitting 8,800 in 2020 | Inquirer Business

[webmaster]

COL-etc, Last: 2.17 / PSEI (6,864) = 0.032%

[webmaster]

Portfolio: GLO: 1,754 / PSEI (6,864)= 25.6%, MBT: 67.75, 0.99%

MBT:  / PSEI (6,864)= MBT: 67.75, 0.99%

===

[webmaster]

UPDATE>..

SIMPLE RULE?  worked since about 2000...

Buy PSEI below 0.080 oz. / Sell PSEI above 0.120 - or something like that

YrEnd: PHP/$ : Gold : PHgold: +1yr % :  PSEI : +1yr % : PS/oz.
2008 : 48.09 : $869.8 : 41.83k: +20.2%: 1,873.: -48.3%: 0.045

0.045: LOW: only 0.045 Oz will buy the PSEI index
2009 : 46.42 : 1087.5 : 50.48k: +20.7%: 3,053: +63.0%: 0.060:
2010 : 43.95 : 1405.5 : 61.77k: +22.4%: 4,201.: +37.6%:  0.068:
2011 : 43.65 : 1531.0 :  66.83k: +8.19%: 4,372.: +4.07%: 0.065:
2012 :  41.01 : 1657.5 :  67.97k:  +1.71%: 5,813.: +33.0%: 0.086:
2013 : 44.10 : 1204.5 :  53.12k: - 11.9%: 5,890.: +1.32%:  0.111:
2014 : 44.69 : 1206.0 : 53.90k: +1.47%: 7,231.: +22.8%:  0.134:
2015 : 47.23 : 1069.0 : 50.59k: - 6.15%: 6,984.: - 3.42%: 0.138:
2016 : 49.82 : 1145.9 : 57.09k:  +12.8%: 6,841.: - 2.05%: 0.120:
2017 :  50.39 : 1291.0 : 65.05k: +13.9%: 8,558.: +25.1%: 0.132:
2018 :  52.77 : 1279.0 : 67.49k: +3.75%: 7,466.: -12.8%:  0.111:
09/’19   52.11 : 1485.3 : 77.40k: +14.7%: 7,779.: +4.19%:  0.101:

0.101: = 10.1% of an Gold Oz req'd to buy PSEI

2019 :  50.71 :  1519.5:  77.05k:  +00.0%:  7,815.: +0.00%: 0.101
2020 :  48.01 : 1877.3:  90.13k:  +00.0%:  7,140.: +0.00%: 0.079
2021 :   51.00 : 1827.5:  93.20k: +00.0%: 7,335.: +0.00%: 0.079
2022 :  55.68 : 1823.9:  101.6k: +00.0%: 6,556.:  +0.00%: 0.065
2023 :  55.40 : 2062.9: 114.3k: +00.0%: 6,450.: +0.00%: 0.056
04/’24  56.42 : 2273.0: 128.2k: +00.0%: 6,864.: +0.00%: 0.054

0.054: = LOW? only 5.4% of an Gold Oz req'd to buy PSEI

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Sources: bigcharts
Gold London pm, Kitco : https://www.kitco.com/scripts/hist_charts/yearly_graphs.plx