Shorting BANK stocks

[drbubb]

Shorting BANK stocks

 

This is probably too early, but it is not too soon to start contemplating which stocks to short and at what possible levels

(And also what instruments to use, such as Put options)

 

XLF / Financial stock etf ... All-data : 10-yr : 5-yr : 2-yr : 6-mos / 10-d : $23.37 -0.24 : -1.02%

 

[drbubb]

SHORTING Bank Shares - JPM

 

The chart of JPM shows an amazing symmetry since the 2009 Low - and could be topping now

 

JPM ... 10-yrs : 5-yrs : 2-yrs : 6-mos / 10-d : Last: $86.50 -0.63 : -0.72%

 

Jul.2017 $85 Put ... update : Last: $5.70 +0.25

[drbubb]

Tony C's count for XLF, is similar to mine for JPM, It turns out

 

> http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp/3

 

 

But a wave 3 (of V) may not be done: expected Pivots are: xx

And wave 5 (V) is still ahead

 

He calls XLF a leading sector, so it may peak out before SPX.

This shows his much more Bullish count for SPX: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp/1

 

> Tony Caldaro's blog: http://caldaro.wordpress.com/

[drbubb]

Green Line chart for XLE, show RS-95 - a Massive reading (found usually only in 3rd waves)

 

> update: http://stockcharts.com/public/1107832/tenpp/1

[drbubb]

Stocks may be just one last wave away from an important top

 

from JK's website ... update

 

here's iwm ... update

 

Ratio: RUT -to-TLT

 

TZA / 3x bear etf for RUT and IWM ... 10-yr : 5-yr : 2-yr : 6-mos / 10-d : RUT-10d : IWM-10d : VIX-10d :

 

============
5 Ways to play

Index : Last : Opt- Mo.Strike: Price : %-$Pr. : "ATM" : %-U/ly. : x 2-- : /40%
VIX- : 11.70%
SPY : 226.40 : Put - Apr. 226 : $5.97 : 2.64% / $6.17 : 2.73% : 5.46% : 13.7%
IWM : 136.19 : Put - Apr. 136. : $5.46 : 4.01% / $5.56 : 4.09% : 8.18% : 20.4%
TZA : $19.26 : Call - Apr. $17 : $3.33 : 17.3% / $2.33 : 12.3% : 24.5% : 61.3%
XLF : $23.46 : Put - Apr. $24 : $1.24 : 5.29% / $1.00 : 4.16% : 8.32% : 20.8%
FAZ : $20.80 : Call - Apr. $18 : $4.00 : 19.2% / $2.50 : 12.0% : 24.0% : 60.1%

[rigger]

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2017/02/01/a-new-look-at-nyse-margin-debt-and-the-market

 

Margin debt flashing warning signals as Goldman reaches a peak.

[drbubb]

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2017/02/01/a-new-look-at-nyse-margin-debt-and-the-market

 

Margin debt flashing warning signals as Goldman reaches a peak.

Thanks

XLF : chart

-Looks like it should hit $25.00, and maybe higher.

Now about $24.50

[drbubb]

"This Is Probably Just The Beginning" - Chinese Banks Are In Big Trouble

 

That's not supposed to happen...

 

(Funding squeeze! Banks will avoid lending.)

 

ith the crackdown on financial system leverage underway, Chinese banks (and securities firms) are in big trouble. As we noted previously, China's bond curve is inverted, yields are surging, and Chinese regulatory decisions shutting down various shadow-banking pipelines has crushed securities firms' stocks. However, as Bloomberg points out, as China’s deleveraging efforts cut into banks’ profit margins, rising base funding costs and interbank credit risk concerns have pushed banks' cost of borrowing beyond the rate they charge customers for loans for the first time in history.

As the chart above shows, the one-year Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate has exceeded the Loan Prime Rate, the first time this has happened since the latter was introduced in 2013.

“This is probably just the beginning” and interbank funding costs will rise further amid the drive to reduce leverage, said Xu Hanfei, chief fixed-income analyst at China Merchants Securities Co. in Shanghai.