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drbubb

DrBubb's Diary - Oct. 2018 Trading - v.117

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TOP ... : Chan-GE : MP : PP : Charts2Acore : Fringe :

t24_au_en_usoz_6.gif : idx24_russell_en_2.gif : idx24_hui_en_2.gif :

3d : ag : au : 10d-Gvs.UK : >News : DrRp : AJo : Fox : WRH : Arc : RenA : Rvd : FxN :

chart.png?m=bitstampUSD&v=1&t=S&noheader

BTC all data: 8yr: 3yr: 12mo: 6mo 1mo 10d 10d 5d / SLV-lv

rRVz8qT.png

NYXBT : 3yr : 3yr-377d : 1yr : 6mo :

TEsee5x.gif

02/28: 0.6100 x10950-(- 50) =6680: -100:10950Mar(-800):6680/( -750 :11.2%):+0100:11048 +025,-.007: 11.6
03/31: 0.6817 x$7091- +200 =4834 -050:$7041Jun(+403):4800/(+603+12.6%):
04/29: 0.6942 x$9407- +100 =6530 +010:$9417Jun(+203):6537/(+303+4.64%):+0000:$9,477 +070,-.000: 9.65
05/05: 0.6937 x$9846(+000) =6830 +238:10,084Jun(+003):6995/(+003+0.04%):+0000:10,131+285,-.000: 10.1H
05/10: 0.6937 x$9365(+000) =6497 +268:$9,533Jun(+003):6613/(+003+0.05%):+0000:$9,633+568,-.000: 9.90
07/22: 0.6932 x$7700(+000) =5337 +050:$7,750Sep(+000):5372/(+000+0.00%):+0000:$7,750+050,-.000: 9.38
09/09: 0.6842 x$6185(+000) =4204 -040:$6,145Sep(+000):4204/(+000+0.00%):+0000:$6,135-050,-.009: 9.02
09/30: 0.6940 x$6570(+000) =4460 -040:$6,530Dec(+000):4532/(+000+0.00%):+0000:$6,538-032,-.000: 8.98
======
-Bonus: 0.225 x12750=$3337; x$6,530= $1469: 3063: H:4762 /$1,699/.6940= 2448 = 8.98 to New High

CRYPTO---- : BTC &us$ - 09/30: 09/09- : 07/22- : 05/10- :
Bitcoin-- : US-Dollars  @6,570: 6,180: @7,737: @9,330:
Cardano-- : .00001338 : $0.080 : $0.075 : $0.180: $0.330 :
Bitc. cash : 0.0838---- : $0,550 : $0,470.: $0,840.: $1,761 :
Ethereum-: 0.0353---- : $ 232. : $  191. : $  472. :  $ 787. :
Litecoin--- : 0.00951---- : $62.5 : $ 52.6 : $  86.0  :  $ 169. :
Ripple------ : 0.0000924 : $0.600: $ 0.274: $ 0.46.: $ 0.85 :
TRON------- : 0.0000035: $0.020: $ 0.019: $ 0.03.:
EOS Token: 0.0008847:   $ 5.80.: $ 4.66.: $ 8.45.:
HIVE.c------------------9/07: C$60.0 : C$0.68 : C$ 0.81 : C$1.120 > Last 6/5
ATLEF / Atlas Cloud--- : $0.110 : $ 0.165 :  $ 0.120 : $0.225 >
RIOT---------------------------- : $3.650 : $ 4.300 :  $ 5.900 : $7.800 >

Crypto miners

ATLEF vs Hive ...from 1.1.2018 :HIVE 9/7/2018 (vs.7/20): C$0.81 (0.81): RIOT: $5.90 (5.90), ATLEF: $0.12 (0.12)

KgRM2uM.gif

==

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Very Good.  Very Effective
(but not maybe the way the Dems would want it to be)
New Democrat Campaign "Ad"
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gjzeNBSZFUo
 "Republican promise FREEDOM.  We promise... FREE stuff.  
They are not just wrong, they are BAD PEOPLE."

 

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Tony C - sees a 50-62% Rally from the Low... we may have seen it

Readers chart : 0b7rGdSo

Wednesday update : New Low at 2652

SHORT TERM: quiet open then selloff, DOW -608

The first three days of the week display Asian stocks down 0.8%, and European stocks down 2.3%. US stocks started the week at SPX 2768. The SPX hit 2779 in the first few minutes after a gap up opening on Monday. Dropped to SPX 2691 on Tuesday, after a gap down opening. Then rallied nearly back to unchanged after being down 65 points. Today a quiet open then the selling resumed, and the SPX made new lows for the downtrend at 2652. Quite a volatile market.

DlhhgL7.png

Yesterday we thought the market had a chance to end this downtrend at SPX 2691, after several technical indicators looked positive. The market rallied big off the lows, and we were waiting for some upside follow through today before placing a Minor wave A label at that low. That upside follow through never materialized, and the market dropped right to our SPX 2675 initial target, and then the OEW 2656 pivot in the last hour of trading. Quite a volatile two days.

With today’s selloff the charts now display positive divergences on all timeframes. Naturally we would like to see some upside activity before thinking a significant low has been established. But this is what the RSI usually looks like at downtrend bottoms. Short term support is at 2656 and 2632 pivots, with resistance at the 2731 and 2780 pivots. Day traders markets!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: downtrend probable

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Something LIKE THIS maybe

spx-impulse-or-complex-10-24-2018.png

Could rally. Then Fall to lower Low > Then show a bigger Rise than shown above

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Gold in Euros

im8nci7.png

With possible Cycle

apoR8ux.png

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Strong Rally

SPY etc... update :

7c2QGIQ.gif

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FANGS Bite the Big One After Hours

The spokesmodels, cheerleaders, and stock pimps were all smiles today as the equity indices were bouncing back hard.

But alas, after the bell both Amazon and Alphabet, the behemoth formerly known as Google, shit the bed on their financial results, and the futures headed south with a vengeance.

Gold and silver were off a bit in honor of the Comex expiration today, and a stronger dollar.

Read more: WHAT REALLY HAPPENED | The History The US Government HOPES You Never Learn! http://www.whatreallyhappened.com/#ixzz5UzQMAVLO

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Oct 26 5:30am:

Here's what you need to know about the markets before you start your business day. More

UKX / FTSE-100 

YMDnzPF.gif

5d / FTSE-100  & big tech losers

tM6Kdh3.gif

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SOLD the rest of my SPY puts, booking a halfway decent profit, after sitting underwater for many weeks

SPY : 10d :

v3qLlSF.gif

Decided to flip to the "Long" side a little later, buying SPY Nov.16th - $260c at $8.60 ... update :

VPqllE5.gif

If we get a rally here, they should be good for $20+ within 2 weeks, probably.  We'll see

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Options sound like a fun game. I've always wondered how to buy them here in the UK - I shall have to ask my trader friend who makes options at Citi...

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The $260 CALL I bought at $8.60*, closed at $10.48 (10.42-10.54)

While I was sleeping, it traded as high as $11.74 (36% higher than I paid)

That is pretty good volatility for an in-the-money option

With the $265.33 close,, it is $5.33 in the money, and there are 3 weeks of life left.

In after hours trading, SPY was up to $266.37 > so 74% of my cost is now covered by intrinsic value

*I missed the Low at $8.24

 

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TREND BREAK

FbGOOG ... update 10d/ FB: $145.37 -3.70% / GOOG: 1071.47 -2.20% - Ratio : 13.6%

LSXynud.gif

FbGOOG ...  10d/

gYyGPp5.gif

==

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7 hours ago, drbubb said:

The $260 Put I bought at $8.60*, closed at $10.48 (10.42-10.54)

While I was sleeping, it traded as high as $11.74 (36% higher than I paid)

That is pretty good volatility for an in-the-money option

With the $265.33 close,, it is $5.33 in the money, and there are 3 weeks of life left.

In after hours trading, SPY was up to $266.37 > so 74% of my cost is now covered by intrinsic value

*I missed the Low at $8.24

 

That's actually a call but yeah looks like Vol is back.

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Yes.

CALL it is - I flipped my position from Short to Long > and I did that with a Call.

I am so used to buying Puts that I had to ask my broker to price it twice. to get on the Right side

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joe-friday-2-year-yields-hitting-37-year

>

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wrhmemberstory.jpg

Trend Followers Stung in Hedge Fund ‘Bloodbath’ as Rout Deepens

Hedge funds using computer-driven models to follow big market trends have been whiplashed as volatility has spiked, among the biggest casualties of a stock rout that has accelerated worldwide.

Funds known as commodity trading advisers, or CTAs, have traditionally shielded investors during market selloffs such as the global financial crisis, especially when mathematical models show a clear or pronounced trend. But this time, they’ve been unable to navigate sharp reversals in asset prices, with Leda Braga’s BlueTrend hedge fund, GAM Holding AG’s Cantab unit and Man Group Plc’s AHL unit among those suffering steep losses in October.

“It’s a bloodbath out there across almost every strategy with very few exceptions,” said Vaqar Zuberi, head of hedge funds at Mirabaud Asset Management, which oversees 8.8 billion Swiss francs ($8.8 billion). “CTAs have been caught by a double-whammy with rising rates and equities plummeting,” said Zuberi. “There’s only one exit and everyone is trying to exit now because the models are telling them to do so.”

Computer-driven hedge funds were already headed for their worst year ever before this month’s volatility, amid slowing corporate earnings, political turmoil in Italy and uncertainty over Brexit. Such funds tumbled more than 4 percent in February for their worst month since 2001, according to a Eurekahedge index that tracks the category.

Read more: WHAT REALLY HAPPENED | The History The US Government HOPES You Never Learn! http://www.whatreallyhappened.com/#ixzz5VEIuK0cE
 
/ 2 /

The Market’s Trend Breakdown Has Been Confirmed

The S&P ($SPX) fell well below the 200 day moving average last week. The character of the US markets has shifted during October and from the chart you can clearly see the old adage in action; prices take the stairs on their way up and the elevator on their way down. More than likely we'll see a test of the April low price level within the next two weeks or so.

Expanding the view, you can see that January 2016 was last time the SPX closed substantially below the 200 day / 40 week moving average. At some point, the lower stock prices will bring in big institutions...so watch for trading volume cues.

2018-10-28 - $SPX Technical Analysis - Weekly

2018-10-28 - SPX Technical Analysis - Weekly

I took my own advice and checked my watch list. It wasn't pretty. But there are a few names that have held up well, relative to the overall market. And those names are the ones I'm watching closely for signs that the selling is complete.

Participate. Protect. Prepare.

Read more: WHAT REALLY HAPPENED | The History The US Government HOPES You Never Learn! http://www.whatreallyhappened.com/#ixzz5VEJMxxQP

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The Fed's Racetrack: Gold (GLD) vs Stocks (SPY) : update :vs.CRB : GLD-hr : SPY-hr : GLD/SPYratio

Ua8h1ob.gif

: 2015-18 :

Oz1lWIc.gif

A-wave Low in place maybe near SPY-263? 

Good place to bounce from?

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Tony C's

Weekend update

REVIEW

Very volatile week. The market started the week at SPX 2768. After a gap up opening on Monday, and hitting SPX 2779 in the opening minutes, the market headed south. A gap down opening on Tuesday carried the SPX to 2691 in the first hour of trading. Then the market rallied all the way back to SPX 2754 by the last hour of trading. Wednesday had a quiet open, and then the market sold off to SPX 2652 by the last hour of trading. Then a gap up opening on Thursday carried the SPX all the way back to 2723 in the last hour of trading. Friday’s gap down opening took the market down to an even lower low at SPX 2628. And just as quickly it rallied to SPX 2692. Naturally it headed lower after that and ended the week at SPX 2659. Summary: 2779-2691-2754-2652-2723-2628-2692. For the week the SPX/DOW lost 3.45%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 3.70%.

. . . During the summer we had been warning that the Asian and European markets looked quite weak. China had already confirmed a bear market, and Switzerland (which usually tops months before the US) had already topped. In fact, all but two of the international markets we follow looked like they had topped. We now have Canada, Germany and Spain, joining China in confirmed bear markets.

SHORT TERM

Initially we all thought the market would offer an orderly decline for this wave A downtrend. This week’s activity throws that assumption to the wind. This market is acting like 3%/4% moves mean nothing. The only short term count we can currently offer is on the hourly/daily charts: an a-b-c down. The first decline was 230 points (2941-2711). Then after a bounce to SPX 2817, the current decline is 189 points (2817-2628). About 41 points away from being equal: which is SPX 2587. This also happens to be in the range of the next lower pivot: 2594. If the market continues its 100-points drops, followed by 60+ point rallies, the 2594 pivot could be next and last for now.

spxhourly3.png?w=640&h=485

Technically the market continues to display positive divergences during these declines. We now have a double positive divergence on the SPX/DOW hourly charts. And positive divergences on all four major indices daily charts. They have not worked thus far, except to set up sharp rallies. But they usually do help identify downtrend lows. Keep an eye on those pivots. Short term support is at the 2656 and 2632 pivots, with resistance at the 2731 and 2780 pivots. Best to your trading!

===

J.Wenger says:

Thanks Tony. Consensus across the board seems to be that we’re WAY oversold and due for a bounce…guess that means we’ve still got some pain in store!
https://www.invest-safely.com/stock-market-outlook-2018-10-28.html

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CRIMES & Lies of the Clintons - It is a long, long list > READ THIS !

(recent ones were partly enabled by Obama)

THE EPIC OF CLINTONS-MESS!

The crimes, lies, and frauds of the Clintons are epic in scale, scope, and sheer audacity! Herewith is a by no means all-inclusive telling of the duo of deception, the marriage of mendacity, the couple of corruption!

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VIX COMMENT: "Tops are a Process"

369Vpb5.png

valunvstr says:

I haven’t posted in a few years and wanted to see what the temperature was with the recent sell off. There is a specific observation worth mentioning that I don’t here many talk about. Now, I don’t know if many are calling for a severe bear market if just a sharp 20% correction, but for those calling for more it is highly unlikely and would occur in an environment it have not occurred in for 32 years. The VIX has been around since 1986 (originally VXO sp100). Many believe a low VIX is bear. This is actually a huge misunderstanding. Tops are a process and bottoms are events. Also, if one believes the markets are even somewhat efficient then the VIX would not be low before a crash or bear market.

Where am I going with this? The VIX is not a “fear” index. It is an expectation of future volatility. Every market crash and bear market (bull market top) has always been PREceeded by an elevated VIX. Now, the daily VIX is to volatile so I use the 20wk VIX to smooth things out. And what you will find is that in mid 1986 through the 87 crash, 1990 through the 20% correction, mid 1997 through the tech wreck and mid 2007 through the financial crisis, the 20 wk VIX in all cases rose above 20. It also makes sense as the long terms average is around 20. Today we are still in thenlow 14’s. I guess there can be a first time for anything but this would be the first since the VIX Has been around to have a bear market begin with a low cop market. It’s jist not how it works. And the reason one can be confident in this is because the VIX is based on human nature and behavior. It should not be able to be arbitraged away. So with the 20wk VIX in the low 14’s, at best we are very close to the bottom (I’ll go on record that my trading system has me 50% levered as of Friday’s close and another weekly close below this past Friday will be 100% levered) and at works can be something like 2011, 2015/2016 corrections. Steep but over quickly. One final point, an elevated 20 wk VIX does not mean a bear market or crash is imminently either. Mid 1997-March of 2000 were some good times. The point is that under 20 suggests that a crash or bear is highly unlikely.

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 WEEKLY Data

==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :   03/29  : 06/29 :   09/28 : 10/05 :  10/12 :  10/19 :  10/26 :
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1327.3 : 1254.5 : 1196.2 : 1205.6 : 1222.8 : 1228.1 : 1235.1 :
GLD- : 109.61 : 123.65 : +12.8% : 125.79 : 118.65 : 112.76 : 113.90 : 115.23 : 116.01 : 116.77 :
SPY- : 223.53 : 266.86 : +19.4% : 263.15 : 271.28 : 290.72 : 287.82 : 272.95 : 276.25 : 265.33 : - 3.95%
SPX- : 2238.8 : 2673.6 : +19.4% : 2691.3 : 2718.4 : 2914.0 : 2885.6 : 2767.1 : 2767.8 : 2658.7 :
Sp/Au 194.4%: 204.2%: ====== : 219.0%: 216.7%: 243.6%: 239.3%: 226.4% : 225.3% : 215.3 : - 4.46%
XLE : $75.32 : $72.24 : -4.09% : $67.41: $75.94 : $75.74 : $77.16: $73.00: $71.53 : $66.48 : - 7.06%
WTIc: $53.72 : $60.42 : +12.4% : $64.94 : $74.15 : $73.25 : $74.34 : $71.34 : $69.28 : $67.59 :
Au/Wt:  r-21.4 :  r-21.7 : ====== : r-20.44 : r16.92 : r-16.33 : r-16.22 : r-17.13 : r-17.74 : R-16?
Ngas: $3.350 : $2.950 : - 11.9% : $2.730 : $2.920 : $3.010 : $3.140 : $3.160 : $3.250 : $3.220 :
Cop'r: $2.510 : $3.305 : +31.7% : $3.030 : $2.970 : $2.810 : $2.760 : $2.800 : $2.780 : $2.740 :
Soyb : 1000.0 : 950.00 : -------------------> 845.50 : 869.00 : 867.50 : 856.75 : 857.75 :
Weat : 408.00 : 426.25 : +4.47% : 451.00 : 501.25 : 509.00 : 521.00 : 517.25 : 514.75 : 505.25 :
Corn : 352.00 : 350.75 : -0.36% : 387.75 : 371.25 : 356.25 : 368.25 : 373.75 : 367.00 : 367.75 :
CRB- : 192.51 : 193.86 : +0.07% : 195.36 : 200.39 : 195.16 : 199.04 : 197.94 : 197.18 : 195.51 :
DBA : $19.97 : $18.76 : -6.06%: $18.18: $18.03: $16.91 : $17.35 : $17.55 : $17.54 : $17.72 :
D/crb: 10.37% :  9.67% : ====== :  r9.31% : r8.99% : r8.66% :  r8.71% : r8.87% :  r8.90% :  r9.06% :
Xle/D: r-3.770 : r-3.850: +2.14%: R3.707 : R4.212 :  R4.479: R4.450 : R4.160 : R4.080 : R3.750 :
DXY- : 102.38 : $92.30 : - 9.85% : $89.81 : $94.47 : $95.13 : $95.60 : $95.23 : $95.64 : $96.13 :
TLT- : 119.13 : 126.86 : + 6.49% : 121.90 : 121.72 : 117.27 : 113.04 : 114.47 : 113.71 : 114.99 :
=====
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1327.3 : 1254.5 : 1196.2 : 1205.6 : 1222.8 : 1228.1 : 1235.1 :
Au/hd: r1.401 : r1.58E : ====== : r-1.569 : r-1.532 : r-1.612 : r-1.651: r-1.642 : r1.647 : r1??
Hold : 822.17 : 830.00 : +01.0% : 846.12 : 819.04 : 742.23 : 730.17 : 744.64 : 745.82 : 7??
WPM: $19.32 : $22.27 : +15.3% : $20.37 : $22.06 : $17.50 : $17.05 : $17.38 : $17.41 : $16.40 :
GDX- : $20.92 : $23.24 : +11.1% : $21.98 : $22.31 :$18.52 : $18.65 : $19.73 : $20.01 : $19.06 :
Gdxj : $31.55 : $34.13 : +8.18% : $32.15 : $32.70 : $27.36 : $27.62 : $29.30 : $29.61 : $28.27 :
SIL - : $32.11 : $32.64 : +1.65% : $30.72 : $28.88 : $24.23 : $23.93 : $24.79 : $25.06 : $23.91 :
/SLV: R2.053 : R2.042 : - 0.54% : R1.994 : R1.910 : R1.765 : R1.740 : R1.804: R1.824 : R1.731 :
SLV- : $15.64 : $15.98 : +2.08% : $15.41 : $15.15 : $13.73 : $13.75 : $13.74 : $13.74 : $13.81 :
Silvr : 16.580 : 17.150 : +3.44% : 16.268 :  16.200 : 14.710 : 14.650 : 14.640 : 14.650 : 14.66? : =No Chg=
PHM: $18.38 : $33.34 : +81.4% : $29.49 : $28.75 : $24.77 : $23.86 : $22.89 : $21.58 : $23.93 : +10.9% !
EEM- : $35.01 : $47.30 : +35.1% : $48.28 : $43.33 : $42.92 : $40.84 : $40.29 : $39.67 : $38.67 :
ShCm: 3103.7 : 3307.2 : +6.56%: 3168.9: 2847.4 : 2821.3 : 2821.4 : 2606.9 : 2550.5 : 2598.8 :
PhpSi: 6840.6 : 8558.4 : +25.1% : 7979.8: 7193.7 : 7276.8 : 7078.2 : 7004.8 : 7151.5 : 7076.2 :
XLF-  : $23.25 : $27.19 : +16.9% : $27.57: $26.59 : $27.58 : $28.00 : $26.43 : $26.67 : $25.26 : - 5.29%
IWM- : 134.85 : 152.43 : +13.0% : 151.83: 163.77 : 168.55 : 162.16 : 153.60 : 153.36 : 147.48 : -3.83%
F/iwm 0.1724 : 0.1784 : =====  : 0.1816 : 0.1624 : 0.1636 : 0.1727 : 0.1721 : 0.1739 : 0.1713 :
BTC-- : $948.5 : 13,100 : x13.8X : $7,401 : $5,883 : $6,652 : $6,547 : $6,224 : $6,440 : $6,396 :
==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :  03/29  :  06/29 :  9/28  :  10/05 :  10/12  :  10/19 :  10/26 :

 

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Is NOW like early 2016, just before the Big SURGE in Gold & Silver prices?

"Hyper-Gold" (Gold/DXY) set-up looks similar

T14rPnQ.png

xx

gvOxsrv.png

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Pre-Market - SPY up 1%

U.S. Stock Futures

arrowUp.gifS&P +26.50  /  +0.99%
Level 2,696.00
Fair Value 2,658.44
Difference

37.56

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