DrBubb's Diary - May 2019 Trading - v.124

[drbubb]

Dr.B's Trading Diary : 2019. Diary's 124th Month = Over 10 years.

10 years since 3/09 Low : Dow closed 2017 @ 24,719, 2018 @ 23,327 - 5.63% (YrH: 26,952 / L: 21,713 - 19.4%)

Top of Page Charts (Odd) : Channel-GE : MP : PP : Charts : Acore : Fringe : Ag B E G H :

Featured Video (coming)

================

DrBubb's Diary - May 2019 Trading - v.124

The Fed's Racetrack: Gold (GLD) vs Stocks (SPY) : update :vs.CRB : GLD-hr : SPY-hr : GLD/SPYratio

The Fed's money-printing has maintained confidence in markets - but the money has gone not only into stocks, but also into other areas. For many months, money flowed into commodities like Gold, pushing prices higher even faster than stocks, as the chart above shows. But since Gold's peak in Aug.2011, stocks have outperformed gold. Since then, these two assets have tended to trade counter-cyclically to each other.

Gold in EURO - very worthwhile to track

Short Term:

Medium Term - 3 Years: Gold-inEUR or GLD-toEUR

US Stocks: "SPX-in-Euros" .. SPX-to-EUR or SPY-to-FXE  .. update

Ratio - SPX/Euro has often moved in a nice clear channels

DrBubb's "Early Warning System"

Leading Ratio ... LQD:TLT-Weekly-3yrs : TLT-vsLQD : Copper : HG price : CU price : SPY-10/11 : SMH-6mos

I reckon that the LQD-to-TLT ratio should move in harmony with stocks, or maybe LEAD stock moves. If they are moving in different directions, then one should be cautious. (However, the value of this indicator has become suspect in recent years, after giving some false warnings.)
=====
Bullish Percentages :
BPNYA- : http://stockcharts.c...!Lh14,3]&pref=G
BPGDM : http://stockcharts.c...!Lh14,3]&pref=G
NASIT - : NAMOT : Summation Indices

INFLATION Watch / "Drivers" (SPY, GLD, DXY) .. 10d : 6mo-D : 2yr-D : 5yr-D // CU-etc : w/XLE : w/OIH :

Oil or Copper to lead Commodity bounce-back?

: w/OIH :

GBS-GoldBullion vs: DBA, XLE, EUR ... update :

RECORD : CU may lead GLD and SPY
======

US Fed'l Debt // Formula: (Fed'l Debt - $4.0 Trillion ) x 119 +$100

Date-: DebtTr > G.Eqv /10.40 : - GLD - : - SPY - : -DIFF- : - ratio - : -- CU -- : cu/gld : - FXI - : cu-fxi : - DBA- : - BTC - :

end07: $09.23 > 0,722 : 072.2 : $082.46 : $146.21 : -63.75: 56.398% : $20.0e: XX.X% :: $ 17.05: ==== : $ 32.99 :

end08: $10.70 > 0,897 : 089.7 : $086.52 : $090.24 : -$3.72: 95.878% : $20.0e: XX.X% :: $ 29.09: ==== : $ 26.18 :

end09: $12.31 > 1,089 : 108.9 : $107.31 : $111.44 : -$4.13: 96.294% : $30.0e: XX.X% :: $ 42.26: ==== : $ 26.44 :

end10: $14.03 > 1,294: 129.4 : $138.74 : $125.75 : $12.99: 110.34% : $43.71: 31.51%: $ 43.09: $0.62: $ 32.35 : $ 00.29 :

end11: $15.22 > 1,435: 138.0 : $151.99 : $125.50 : $26.49: 121.11% : $29.29: 19.27%: $ 34.87: - 5.58: $ 28.88 : $ 04.60 :

end12: $16.43 > 1,570: 151.0 : $162.02 : $142.41 : $19.61: 113.77% : $30.34: 18.73%: $ 40.45:-10.11: $ 27.95 : $ 13.48 :

end13: $17.35 > 1,689: 162.4 : $116.12 : $184.69 : -68.57 : 062.87% : $22.27: 19.18%: $ 38.37:-16.10: $ 24.25 :$815.00 :

end14: $18.14 > 1,783 : 171.4 : $113.58 : $205.54 : -98.04 : 55.26% :: $18.09: 15.93%: $ 41.62:-23.53: $ 24.89 :$316.20 :

end15: $18.83 > 1,865 : 179.3 : $101.46 : $203.87 :-102.41: 49.77% :: 2.135 : 2.140%: $ 35.29:-00.00: $ 20.61: $433.50 :

end16

(2016)
01/29: $19.01 > 1,886 : 180.0 : $108.05 : $193.65 : - $85.60: 55.80% :: 2.060 : 1.907% $ 31.20:-00.00: $ 19.99: $375.00 :
02/29: $19.13 > 1,900 : 181.3 : $118.64 : $193.56 : - $74.98: 61.29% :: 2. ??? : 1.000% $ 30.00: -00.00: $ 20.00: $434.00 :
03/31: $19.26 > 1,916 : 182.8 : $117.64 : $205.52 : - $87.88: 57.24% :: 2. ??? : 1.000% $ 33.77: -13.17: $ 20.60: $415.00 :
04/30: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $123.65 : $206.33 : - $82.68: 59.93% :: 2. ??? : 1.000% $ 33.53: -12.45: $ 21.08: $4 ??.00 :
05/31: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $116.06 : $209.84 : - $93.78: 55.31% :: 2.080 : 1.792% $ 33.65: -12.34: $ 21.31: $526.10 :

06/30: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $126.47 : $209.48 : - $83.01: 60.37% :: 2.0 ?? : 0.000% $ 00.00: -00.00: $ 00.00: $0
07/31: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $128.98 : $217.12 : - $88.14: 59.40% :: 2.0 ?? : 0.000% $ 00.00: -00.00: $ 00.00: $0
08/31: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $124.78 : $217.38 : - $92.60: 57.40% :: 2.080 : 1.667% $ 37.08: -16.85: $ 20.23: $570.00 :

=====
ye'16 : $20.0E > 1,8 xx : 18x.x :

Date-: DebtTr > G.Eqv /10.40 : - GLD - : - SPY - : -DIFF- : - ratio - : -- CU -- : cu/gld : - FXI - : cu-fxi : - DBA- : - BTC - :

======

"GOLD Formula" is : (Fed'l Debt - $4.0 Trillion ) x 119 +$100 : US Govt Debt :: http://www.usgovernmentdebt.us/

The FED must be pleased with the way that money has flowed into stocks, away from Gold. / notes : a b c

[drbubb]

DAILY MONITOR

Month: -SPY- : Chg : volume/ VIX : GDX: +-chg: -GLD- : Chg: volume: x10.?? WTI.Cr: -DXY-- -Chg- : --TLT-: Chg : Posts/Views cum'l
2015
12-31: 203.87 - 2.06: 91.2M: 18.21 : 13.72 +0.06: 101.46 +0.04 : 3.81M: 1060.5 $37.07* 98.693 +0.413: 120.58 +0.54 : 02, 086/ 051, 1,913

 2016
03-31: 205.52 - 0.50: 79.4M: 13.95 : 19.97 - 0.26: 117.64 +0.54: 9.17M: 1233.9 $38.11: $94.63 - 0.10 : 130.61 +0.92 : 096/ 4,518
06-30: 209.48 +2.82: 143.M: 15.63 : 27.71 +0.56: 126.47 +0.63: 15.1M: 1324.7 $48.40: $95.81 +0.05 : 138.90 +0.51: 055/ 1,941
09-30: 216.30 +1.62: 98.7M: 13.29 : 26.43 - 0.26: 125.64 - 0.43: 10.8M: 1317.1 $48.24; $95.42 - 0.10 : 137.51 - 1.24/ 096 : 6,335
12-30: 223.53 - 0.82: 86.9M: 14.04 : 20.92 - 0.83: 109.61 - 0.68: 8.79M: 1151.7 $53.72: 102.38 - 0.27 : 119.13 +0.18/ 096: 13876  

2017
01-31: 227.53 - 0.02 00.0M: 12.09 : 23.93 +0.78: 115.55 +1.68 0.00M: 1211.8 $52.80: $99.74 -0.62 : 119.84 +0.57/ 120: 10255
02-28: 236.47 - 0.64 69.6M: 12.92 : 22.85 +0.01: 119.23 +0.11 8.29M: 1253.9 $54.01: 101.48 +0.32 : 121.74 +0.45/ 085: 7,634
03-31: 235.74 - 0.55 56.2M: 12.37 : 22.81 +0.26: 118.72 +0.25 8.14M: 1251.2 $50.60: 100.22 - 0.07 : 120.71 +0.35/ 120: 23202
04-28: 238.08 - 0.52 50.4M: 10.82 : 22.23 +0.42: 120.77 +0.38 8.86M: 1268.3 $49.33: $99.04 - 0.15 : 122.35 +0.27/ 098: 11915
05-31: 241.44 - 0.06 00.0M: 10.41 : 22.69 +0.10: 120.62 +0.48 0.00M: 1264.8: $48.32: $97.21 +0.00 : 124.14 +0.05/ 106: 6,918
06-30: 241.80 +0.45 49.4M: 11.18 : 22.08 + 0.13: 118.02 -0.30 6.79M: 1242.3: $46.04: $95.64 +0.09 : 125.12 - 0.29/ 095: 5,020
07-31: 246.77 - 0.14 42.9M: 10.25 : 22.86 - 0.05 : 120.75 +0.06 3.82M: 1273.8 $50.17: $92.90 - 0.43 : 124.04 +0.15/ 094: 5,056
08-31: 247.49 +1.48 75.8M: 10.59 : 24.72 +0.56 : 125.82 +1.46 11.3M: 1322.2 $47.23: $92.62 +0.06 : 127.99 +0.38/ 091: 5,034
09-29: 251.23 +0.88 60.7M: 09.51 : 22.96 - 0.20 : 121.58 - 0.63 8.77M: 1284.8 $51.67: $93.07 - 0.06 : 124.76 +0.28/ 067 : 4,235
10-31: 257.15 +0.40 42.7M: 10.18 : 22.48 - 0.28 : 120.67 - 0.46 3.76M: 1277.5 $54.20: $94.54 +0.01 : 124.46 +0.04/ 101 : 2,371
11-30: 265.01 +2.30 104.M: 11.28 : 22.47 - 0.03 : 121.10 - 0.94 7.84M: 1276.7 $57.40: $92.97  - 0.09 : 125.12 - 0.42/ 079 : 2180
12-29: 266.86 - 1.01 60.8M: 11.04 : 23.24 +0.04 : 123.65 +0.80 7.55M: 1309.3 $60.42 : $92.30 - 0.20 : 126.86 +0.20/ 107 : 1590

2018
01-31: 281.90 +0.14 97.6M: 13.54 : 23.75 +0.30 : 127.65 +0.85 13.0M: 1343.1 $64.73 : $89.11 +0.06 : 122.73 +0.72/
02-28: 271.65 - 2.78 101.M: 19.85 : 21.35 - 0.14 : 125.00 - 0.13 4.52M: 1317.9 $61.64 : $90.73 +0.07 : 118.75 +0.75/ 076 : 1093
03-29: 263.15 +3.32 104.M: 19.97 : 21.98 - 0.01 : 125.79 +0.06 6.84M: 1327.3 $64.94 : $90.01 -0.13 : 121.90 +0.59/ 067: 0,880
04-30: 264.51 - 2.05 65.0M: 15.93 : 22.28 - 0.45 : 124.59 - 0.91 9.59M: 1319.2 $68.57 : $91.86 +0.27 : 119.10 +0.21/ 074, 0,630
05-31: 270.94 - 1.67 78.4M: 15.43 : 22.34 - 0.10 : 123.10 - 0.27 7.62M: 1304.7 $66.24 : $93.98 - 0.09 : 121.22 - 0.20/ 074 : 0667
06-29: 271.28 +0.39 74.2M: 16.09 : 22.31 +0.38 : 118.65 +0.43 7.67M: 1254.5 $74.15 : $94.47 - 0.85 : 121.72 - 0.42/ 100 : 1026
07-31: 281.22 +1.38 57.6M: 12.83 : 21.28 +0.01 : 115.99 +0.34 5.45M: 1233.6 $68.76 : $94.55 +0.20 : 119.70 +0.65/ 108 : 1038
08-31: 290.31 +0.01 52.7M: 13.81 : 18.55 - 0.14 : 113.51 - 0.13 4.82M: 1206.7 $69.80 : $95.08 +0.00 : 121.00 - 0.29/ 096 : 0954
09-28: 290.72 +0.03 57.6M: 12.12 : 18.52 +0.18 : 112.76 +0.71 5.78M: 1196.2 $73.25 : $95.13 +0.16 : 117.27 - 0.31/ 081: 0753
10-31: 270.63 +2.86 000.M: 21.23 : 18.93 - 0.21 : 115.15 - 0.65 0.00M: 1215.0 $65.31 : $96.85 - 0.15 : 113.31 - 0.85/ 114: 1184
11-30: 275.65 +1.67 78.5M: 18.07 : 19.09 - 0.08 : 115.54 - 0.20 7.83M: 1220.2 $50.93 : $97.20 +0.41 : 115.33 +0.43/ 163: 1556
12-31: 249.92 +2.17 111.M: 25.42 : 21.09 +0.49 : 121.25 +0.19 8.38M: 1281.3 $45.41 : $96.16 - 0.25 : 121.51 +0.51/ 127: 1254
=====

---: SPY- : Chg : volume/ VIX : GDX: +-chg: -GLD- : Chg: volume: x10.?? WTI.Cr: -DXY- -Chg.- : --TLT- : Chg : Posts/Views cum'l:

DEC
28: 247.75 - 0.32 140.M: 28.34 : 20.60 -0.37 : 121.06 + 0.49 6.75M: 1283.0 $45.33 : $96.39 -0.18 : 121.05 +1.01/ 00, 115: 000, 1100 :
31: 249.92 +2.17 111.M: 25.42 : 21.09 +0.49 : 121.25 +0.19 8.38M: 1281.3 $45.41 : $96.16 -0.25 : 121.51 +0.51/ 00, 127: 000, 1254 :
JAN
30: 267.58 +4.17 84.3M: 17.66 : 22.18 +0.21 : 124.69 +0.71 12.1M: 1315.5 $54.23 : $95.24 - 0.57 : 120.93 - 0.09/ 03, 103: 034, 1195
31: 269.93 +2.35 80.5M: 16.57 : 22.69 +0.51 : 124.75 +0.06 10.0M: 1325.2 $53.79 : $95.56 +0.32 : 121.97 +1.04/ 00, 108: 000, 1284:

FEB
27: 279.20 - 0.12 52.3M: 14.70 : 22.35 - 0.38: 124.69 - 0.89 7.76M: 1321.2 $56.94 : $96.10 -0.02 : 120.43 - 1.38/ 00, 082: 000, 718
28: 278.68 - 0.52 56.1M: 14.78 : 22.24 - 0.11: 123.99 - 0.90 7.51M: 1316.1 $57.22 : $96.23 +0.23 : 120.02 - 0.41/ 03, 085, 032, 750
Mar
28: 280.71 +1.06 53.0M: 14.43 : 22.41 -0.60: 121.90 -1.75 11.4M: 1295.3 $59.30 : $97.20 +0.28 : 126.56 +0.44/
29: 282.48 +1.77 64.1M: 13.71 : 22.42 +0.01: 122.01 +0.11 6.59M: 1298.5 $60.14 : $97.21 +0.01 : 126.44 -0.12/ 01: 83, 022: 688
Apr
29: 293.87 +0.46: 57.2M: 13.11 : 20.84 - 0.46: 120.83 - 0.54 4.47M: 1281.4 $63.50 : $97.86 - 0.15: 123.02 - 0.19/ 00, 071: 000, 640
30: 294.02 +0.15: 00.0M: 13.12 : 20.89 +0.05: 121.20 +0.37 0.00M: 1286.7 $63.91 : $97.53 - 0.33: 123.65 +0.63/ 00, 074: 000, 680
MAY
01: 291.81 - 2.21: 61.2M: 14.80 : 20.52 - 0.37: 120.40 - 0.80 12.3M: 1284.2 $63.60 : $97.62 +0.09: 123.90 +0.25/ 11, 011: 003, 003
02: 291.18 - 0.63: 61.8M: 14.42 : 20.17 - 0.35: 119.94 -0.46 00.0M: 1272.0 $61.81 : $97.83 +0.19: 123.31 - 0.59/ 04, 015: 030, 033
03: 294.03 +2.85: 48.7M: 12.87 : 20.29 +0.12: 120.65 +0.71 8.30M: 1281.3 $61.94 : $97.48 -0.35: 123.66 +0.35/ 04, 019: 032, 065
06: 292.82 - 1.21: 00.0M: 15.44 : 20.30 +0.01: 120.81 +0.16 0.00M: 1283.8 $62.25 : $97.55 +0.07: 124.00 +0.43/ 08, 027:
07: 287.93 - 4.89: 126.M: 19.32 : 20.71 +0.41: 121.21 +0.40 3.80M: 1285.6 $61.40 : $97.46 -0.09: 124.95 +0.95/ 06, 033: 000, 178
08: 287.53 - 0.40: 91.6M: 19.40 : 20.48 - 0.23: 120.91 - 0.30 4.18M: 1000.0 $00.00: $97.62 +0.16: 124.41 - 0.54/
09: 286.66 - 0.87: 000.M: 19.10 : 20.43 - 0.05: 121.20 +0.29 0.00M: 1285.2 $61.70: $97.41 +0.00: 124.92 +0.51/
10: 288.10 +1.44: 111.M: 16.04 : 20.28 - 0.15: 121.43 +0.23 4.57M: 1287.4 $61.66: $97.32 - 0.09: 124.75 - 0.17/ 00, 025: 000, 260
13: 280.86 - 7.24: 000.M: 20.55 : 20.93 +0.65: 122.65 +1.22 0.00M: 1000.0 $00.00: $97.49 +0.27: 125.73 -0.02/
14: 283.40 +2.54: 73.5M: 18.06 : 20.84 - 0.09: 122.46 - 0.21 5.54M: 1000.0 $00.00: $97.52 +0.03: 125.36 -0.37/ 00, 053: 000, 366
15: 285.06 +1.66: 64.9M: 16.44 : 20.79 - 0.05: 122.39 - 0.07 10.3M: 1296.7 $62.40: $97.52 +0.00: 126.13 +0.77/ 02, 055: 016, 382
16: 287.70 +2.64: 00.0M: 15.29 : 20.56 - 0.23: 121.51 - 0.88 00.0M: 1286.2 $00.00: $97.67+0.15: 125.71 - 0.42/
17: 285.84 - 1.86: 100.M: 15.96 : 20.75 +0.19: 120.65 - 0.86 6.59M: 1275.7 $62.92: $97.82 +0.15: 125.99 +0.28/ 00, 064: 000, 000
20: 283.95 - 1.89: 62.9M: 00.00 : 20.68 - 0.07: 120.64 - 0.01 4.35M: 1277.3 $63.21: $98.02 +0.20: 125.73 - 0.26/ 02, 066: 000, 524
21: 286.51 +2.56: 46.8M: 14.95 : 20.71 +0.03: 120.36 - 0.28 3.85M: 1273.2 $63.13: $98.00 - 0.02: 125.53 - 0.20/ 01, 067: 036, 560
22: 285.63 - 0.88: 49.5M: 14.75 : 20.36 - 0.35: 120.24 - 0.12 3.74M: 1274.2 $61.40: $98.11 +0.11: 126.25 +0.72/ 03, 070: 080, 640
23: 282.12 - 3.51: 00.0M: 16.92 : 20.44 +0.08: 121.17 +0.93 0.00M: 1285.4 $59.35: $97.86 - 0.25: 127.67 +0.42/ 04, 074:
24: 282.78 +0.64: 55.3M: 15.85 : 20.57 +0.13: 121.30 +0.13 2.32M: 1283.6 $58.63: $97.61 - 0.25: 127.78 +0.11/ 03, 077: 080, 800
28: 280.15 - 3.63: 70.0M: 17.50 : 20.42 - 0.15: 120.83 -0.47 4.30M; 1277.0 $58.90: $97.91 +0.30: 128.79 +1.01/ 00, 087: 000, 930
29: 278.27 - 1.88: 105.M: 17.90 : 20.42 unch.: 120.87 +0.04 4.13M: 1286.5 $58.80: $98.11 +0.20: 129.09 +0.30/
30: 279.03 +0.76: 82.1M: 17.30 : 20.77+0.45 : 121.69 +0.82 7.76M: 1292.4 $56.59: $98.17 +0.03: 130.20 +1.11/ 00, 092: 000, 1000
31: 275.27 - 3.76: 86.9M: 18.71 : 21.59 +0.82 : 123.33 +1.64 15.4M: 1311.1 $53.50: $97.61 -0.56: 131.83 +1.63/ 02, 094: 047, 1047

[drbubb]

Year End price Recap

Prices---- > YrE'16 : YrE'17 : change :  YrE'18 : change :
Gold ------ : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1281.3 : - 2.15% :
GLD ------ : 109.61 : 123.65 : +12.8% : 121.25 : - 1.94% :
Ratio ------: r10.51 : r10.59 : ====== : r10.567 : ===== :
GDX ------ : $20.92 : $23.24 : +11.1% : $21.09 : - 9.75% :
GDXJ ---- : $31.55 : $34.13 : +8.18% : $30.22 : - 11.5% :
SIL -------- : $32.11 : $32.64 : +1.65% : $25.02 : - 23.3% :
SLV-------- : $15.64 : $15.98 : +2.08% : $14.52 : - 9.14% :
Ratio ------: r2.053 : R2.043 : ====== : R1.723 : ===== : :
WTI ------- : $53.72 : $60.42 : +12.5% : $45.41 : - 24.8% :
USO ------- : $11.72 : $12.01 : +2.47% : $ 9.66 : - 19.6% :
OIH ------- : $33.25 : $26.05 : - 21.7% : $14.03 : - 46.1% :
XLE ------- : $75.32 : $72.26 : - 4.06% : $57.35 : - 20.6% :
SHcomp : $3,104. : $3,307 : +6.54% : $2,494 : - 24.6% :
=======

Many Gold shares are "COILED & Ready to spring" - if the Dollar slides below $97

  : :

USD Index/DXY: $96.11 -0.29 : Gold : $1282.10 +1.70 ...

DXY/ Trade-wgt $/12mo : DXY: $96.17, EUR: $1.147, GBP: $1.275, CAD: $0.737, AUD: $0.704, PHP: 52.50 (FYE'18)

GDXJ - OIH  vs UDN, SLV ... fr.1/2008 w/Dba : 7/2008 w/Dba :

FXFX : 2017-19.Q2 :

Group #1 : update : JNUG ($7.55 -22.6%), UGLD ($96.39 +1.84%), GDXJ ($29.53 -7.11%) - from last month

Group # 2: update : GCM.t ($3.52), CCO.t ($15.56), MUX.t ($2.02)

OIH ($17.99) vs. Drillers: RDC ($11.13), MDR ($8.37), ESV ($4.03) .10d /

==

[drbubb]

Long Term Charts updated from time-to-time, to at least: April 30, 2017

=== 

IWM / etf for Russell-2000 - 12/31/16 : $134.85,  12/31/17 : $152.46 :

All-log : 10-yrs : 12mos // SPY ... : To-End-2015 : last-12mos



KEY CHARTS 
===========

SPY / S&P500 etf - (UP) ...SPY: to 12/31/16 : $223.53,  12/31/17 : $266.86

updated 12/17/2018 : 2,545.94

All-log / 3yrs : 4yrs : 5yrs : 10yrs : TREND is still UP, but may be rolling over

SPX ... 10-yr

.
TLT / T-Bonds etf - (DOWN) ... TLT: to 12/31/16 : $119.13,  12/31/17 : $126.86

All / 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yr : Made an important Peak in 2016 (?) identified in prior chart here !

.
UUP / USDollar x2 etf - (Peaking?) ... to 12/31/16 : $26.46,,  12/31/17 : $24.03

All / 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yr : long ter, TREND is still UP,

.
USO / Oil etf - (Battling DOWNtrend) ... to 12/31/16 : $11.72, 12/31/17 : $12.01

All / 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yr : 10yrL : Price is battling that old Downtrend

.
XLE / Oil stocks - (Fighting back UP) ... to 12/31/16 : $75.32,  12/31/17 : $72.26

All-log / 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : TREND is still Up

.
OIH / Oil service - (Fight DOWNtrend) ... $11.72, 2016  ,  12/31/17 : $26.05

All-Log :  3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : Major Bottom in place?

.
GLD / Gold etf - (Reversing Downtrend?) ... 12/31/16 : 109.61,  12/31/17 : $123.65

All : 3yrs : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : Reversing to Up?

.
GDX / Gold stocks - (Breaking Downtrend?) ... 12/31/16 : $20.92,  12/31/17 : $23.24

GDX ... All-Log : 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : Reversed to Up in 2016 maybe?

.HUI Chart - price data goes back further ... 12/31/16 : 182.31, 2016 range: $99.19 to 286.05 : +199.4% - beta 7.64

All-data :

China's Shanghai index last bounced of a support level near 2,600
ShComp 12/31/16 : 3103.6, 2016 range: 2638.3 to 3538.7 : +34.12% - beta 1.305

CN : SHcomp ... All-Log : All-Data

===== other CHARTS =====

10yrs : SLV : GDXJ : / log : AGQ : PSLV : UGL : PHM +, GDXJ -, RGLD -, HK:HSI +, HK:12 -new,

[drbubb]

BRADLEY Model : "TURN dates"

SPY... 2015-2018: 12-31-16: $223.53 / 12-29-17: $266.86 : +19.4%

2016 : +Jan. 5, -May 10, +June 1, -July 5, +??, -Sep. 28, +Nov. 29

2017 : +Dec. 29, -Apr.17, +Apr.29, -Jun.21, +Aug.19, -Sep.7, +Dec.3, /

2018  : -Jan.4, +Jan.17 

Model for 2017-8?: 2017 : 2016 : 2015 :

===

Historical TURN: Bonds peaked first in 2015, then the Dollar, then stocks...

TLT... 2015-2018 : 12-31-16: $119.13 / 12-31-17: $126.86 : +6.49%

USD trade-weighted dollar:

DXY ... 2015-2018 : DXY-all-data : 12-31-16: $102.36 / '17: $92.28 : -9.72%

sym: ye.2016 : ye.2017 : %.chg : 2017-H :
SPY : $223.53 : $266.86 : +19.4% : 268.60 :
TLT : $119.13 : $126.86 : +6.49% : 129.57 :
DXY : $102.21 : $92.282 : -9.72% : 103.82 :
Djia  : $19,763 : $24,719 : +25.1% : 24,876 :
GLD-: $109.61 : $123.65 : +12.8% : 128.32 :
EUR-: $1.0520 : $1.2001 : +14.1% : 1.2093 :
Dj/E : E18,786 : E20,597 : +9.64% :
PHP-: P49.606 : P50.009 : +0.00% : 52.006 :
====

OTHER Indices : USO : GLD : GDX : PHM : IYR : UGLD-vsGDX : : IMGHST.co

[drbubb]

MARKET CYCLES - Gold vs Property Charts

Gold and Property appear to be counter-cyclical - Time to switch into Gold?

Pulte (PHM) vs. Gold (GLD) ... update / 3-yrs :

BLUE Box: Sell PHM, Buy Gold / Red Box: Buy PHM, Sell Gold

OLD CHART !

3-years Chart : Key Level for PHM ($24.50) - Old chart :

OLD CHART PHM: $24.50, GLD: $112.57 / ratio: 21.8%

NEW CHART: PHM showed nice rally vs Gold ... update : Last (4/5/19) :  PHM: $28.94, GLD: $121.98 / ratio: 23.7%

RATIO : PHM-to-GLD / rose from 21.8% > 23.7% . that's +8.7% higher , and may be peaking out now

[drbubb]

Financials, FALLING out of a Triangle... Maybe? NOPE. Not for Long. Not yet

XLF / Financials etf ... update w/IWM: 3mo t/ 10d iwm w/ - $26.52 OLD Price



UPDATE - to April 5th : chart : a-b-c Drop, then Rally to near unchanged : Last: $26.60

==

[drbubb]

March 1, I said: "Gold may soon test the Bottom of the UPCHANNEL"

GBS.L / Gold Bullion Securities ... update : Then $123.13 - 0.59,  LAST:  121.54 +0.36, +0.30%

OLD CHART (Marc h 1)



UPDATED (April 5th close) : update :

[drbubb]

Ladies & Gentlemen...

Here's the great Ray Dalio - WORTH A LISTEN !

/ 1 / 1,000,000+ Views

Hedge Fund Legend Ray Dalio On The Economy

/ 2 / 200k+ Views:

Ray Dalio on Career, Market Cycles, China Debt

 

[drbubb]

A Confused Market !

The May FOMC meeting has concluded today and as anticipated the Federal Reserve has left interest rates alone. According to the statement released immediately following the conclusion of today’s meeting the Fed “will be patient as it determines what future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate may be appropriate.” In a unanimous vote of 10 – 0 voting Federal Reserve members decided to leave the target range for benchmark federal funds rates at 2.25% - 2.5%.

Gold Prices Jump As Fed Leaves Rates Unchange But Lowers IOER Kitco News

Gold Sells Off As Fed Chair Powell Upbeat On U.S. Economy; ...

Here’s Why You Shouldn’t Give Up On Silver Prices Kitco Video News

Gold prices have jumped into positive territory, after the Federal Reserve signaled its patient approach to interest rates and continued to signal cautious optimism regarding the U.S. economy.

As expected the U.S. central bank left interest rates unchanged within a range between 2.25% and 2.50%. At the same time the bank continue to note positive economic growth.

“Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March indicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic activity rose at a solid rate,” the central bank said in its monetary policy statement.

Gold prices are selling off and have hit daily lows in afternoon dealings Wednesday. The yellow metal is feeling pressure as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is holding his post-FOMC press conference and is sounding positive on the U.S. economic outlook. On the inflation outlook, Powell somewhat alleviated trader concerns regarding low inflation, for which some FOMC members did express concern in the FOMC statement, when he said the present low inflation could be due to "transitory" factors. That statement may have pushed the U.S. dollar index higher and taken some of the dovish tone out of the reading by traders of the FOMC statement. June gold was last down $6.30 an ounce at $1,279.60.

(Kitco News) - Market fundamentals still bear hope for silver prices due to three factors: diminishing silver supply, rise in investment demand, and potential for increased industrial use, this according to Johann Wiebe, lead metals analyst at GFMS Refinitv.

[drbubb]

Pumping up the confidence after a disappointing day - especially for Silver stackers

SLV / Silver ... update / Last : $13.75 - 0.27, -1.93% - vol/. 21.6M - Ugly! with Big Volume

RERUN: It’s "Buy Time" For Gold Mining Stocks - Fund Manager

May 01, 2019

Guest(s): Bob Thompson Senior VP & Portfolio Manager, Raymond James

According to the “mining clock,” a concept used to measure commodity cycles, we are now in the first third of a bull cycle, said Bob Thompson, Senior Vice President & Portfolio Manager of Raymond James.
“The mining clock is just a simple way to see what’s happening in the market, reverse engineer that, and then tells you where we are in the cycle – are we near the end of the cycle or the beginning of the cycle, and it tells you if we’re in a bull market or a bear market,” Thompson told Kitco News on the sidelines of the PDAC 2019.
According to Thompson, mining companies go through natural cycles from becoming overleveraged near the end of a bull run to becoming cash-flow positive, which is where we currently are, and the mining clock indicates that now is a good time to buy.

[drbubb]

The Debt Time Bomb: Amend, Extend and Pretend Marin KatusaApr 29

When Overvalued and Dangerous Markets Meet Stagflation Michael Pento

 

In the May issue of Katusa’s Resource Opportunities, I will revisit a report I wrote four years ago that made mainstream media news. This time, unfortunately for the shareholders, the outcome will be different.

It’s all in the math.

I believe we are reaching a point in the energy AND gold sectors where two things will happen:

1. Much higher corporate interest rates will be required to refinance these non-performing assets. Because they were put into production in a low-cost debt environment to “Extend & Pretend” the loan.

   Obviously, you want to avoid being a shareholder of these companies.

2. Larger companies will be looking to acquire assets that enable the company to increase their “debt flexibility”. This means increasing their asset base to get lower debt costs across the board.

It’s kind of like the “bigger is better” and the “too big to fail” concept. Neither are correct, but that is where the market will be going.

You will see single mine producing mid-tiers, in all commodities, merging.

The question will be… which management keep their plush corner offices and which ones will move onto their next venture?

The one benefit is most of the mining community is getting a bit long in the tooth and they don’t want to stay on. So this issue won’t be as big of a deal as in the 2011-2013 merger bonanza.

Now, you can either buy these fiscally disciplined producers or you can buy the companies that they will be targeting. I’m focusing on the later because there’s better upside if you pick right and sit tight like an alligator.

Why take this approach?

Be it base metals or precious metals, world class discoveries are few and far between. And, it’s cheaper for majors in the current market to buy a world class deposit than the actual cost to find the deposit themselves.

• Over the last decade, senior gold producers have spent on average $74 per ounce acquiring projects and companies.

• Over the same time span, they’ve spent $136 per ounce discovering ounces.

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see it’s cheaper to buy the project, than it is to go from grassroots to discovery.

[drbubb]

Oil Service stocks are still under pressure

HAL, etc ... update : 10d / Last:

More Lines - HAL & XLE-Oil Stocks falling

Sym. $-Last: -Chg. -Pct%: PER : Yield :
HAL:  $27.59 -0.74, -2.61%: 13.7: 2.61%
Bhge $23.55 -0.46, -1.96%: 54.8: 3.06%
OIH : $16.14 -0.52, -3.18%: N/ A: 1.85%
XLE : $64.79 -1.32. -2.00%: N/ A: 3.17%
CNQ: $28.94 -1.04, -3.47%: 17.8: 3.90%
CHK: $  2.83 -0.08, -2.75%: 3.75: 0.00%
SWN: $ 3.87 -0.08, -2.03%: 2.31: 0.00%
USO: $13.22 -0.07, -0.53%:
WTI : $63.60 -0.31, 0.49%:
NGas $2.62 +0.04, +1.75%:
NG/wti r-0.00

Ratio: NatGas to-WTI Crude - @ r-4.12% - Buy NatGas versus Oil?

[drbubb]

SILVER Prices

Long term

Daily

[drbubb]

Why Kyle Bass Sees Recession Risk Rising: A Hedgeye Real Conversation with Keith McCullough

 

[drbubb]

Near Record Gold Shorting By Speculators (And That’s Actually VERY BULLISH)

April 28, 2019 7 1179

Extreme stock-market euphoria is gold’s primary problem, but Speculators’ bearish shift in gold-futures will have to be normalized, resulting in…

by Adam Hamilton of Zeal LLC

Gold has failed to gain traction over the past couple months, normally a seasonally-strong time.  That has really weighed on sentiment, leaving traders increasingly bearish.  Gold investment demand has lagged dramatically with lofty stock markets spewing great euphoria.  That’s given gold-futures speculators the run of the market, where they have sold aggressively including extreme shorting.  But that’s actually very bullish.

Gold price action is driven by the collective trading of both investors and speculators.  The former control vast amounts of capital, which dominates gold prices when it is migrating in or out.  But investors’ interest in gold withers when stock markets are super-high.  When stocks seemingly do nothing but rally, there’s no perceived need to prudently diversify stock-heavy portfolios with counter-moving gold.  It falls out of favor.

Extreme stock-market euphoria is gold’s primary problem now, acting like kryptonite for gold investment.  This week the flagship US S&P 500 broad-market stock index clawed back to a new all-time record high.  That extended its monster rebound rally since late December’s near-bear lows to 24.8%!  The farther the stock markets advance, the more gold is forgotten.  Investors have relentlessly pulled capital back out of gold.

The best proxy for gold investment demand is the physical gold-bullion holdings of the world’s dominant gold exchange-traded fund, the American GLD SPDR Gold Shares.  In early October soon after the S&P 500 peaked but before it started plunging in its severe 19.8% correction, GLD’s holdings slumped to a deep 2.6-year low of 730.2 metric tons.  I explained these stock-market and GLD dynamics in depth last week.

Then the very day the stock markets first dropped hard, investors remembered gold.  Over the next 3.8 months into late January, GLD’s holdings surged 12.8% to 823.9t on heavy capital inflows from American stock investors.  That helped push gold 8.9% higher in that span.  But as euphoria came roaring back as the S&P 500 rebounded sharply from its deep selloff, gold’s relative luster again faded in investors’ eyes.

. . .

This chart superimposes several years of daily gold prices in blue over the weekly CoT data.  Total spec long contracts are shown in greed, and total shorts in red.  The falling longs and rising shorts since gold last peaked near $1341 in mid-February are a big reason for its recent weakness.  But the lower specs push their longs and the higher they ramp their shorts, the more bullish gold’s near-term outlook grows.

A couple weeks ago I dug deeper into gold futures’ impact on gold prices in recent years, so I’m going to focus on recent months here.  On February 19th when gold surged to $1341, total spec longs and shorts were running 305.0k and 138.5k contracts.  While those longs remained way below recent years’ peaks, they were still near the highest levels seen in the past year.  I developed a simple metric to quantify that.

. . .

For the third time in 7 weeks, extreme gold-futures selling flared as gold passed back down below $1300.  Once again there were no significant data or news catalysts around the world, gold-futures selling just snowballed to a stunning degree.  That CoT week total spec longs dropped another 17.5k contracts, close to that 20k+ huge threshold.  But total spec shorts exploded an utterly-astounding 36.9k contracts higher!

That single-CoT-week shorting was so crazy it ranked as the 2nd highest ever witnessed out of the 1059 CoT weeks since early 1999!  The only bigger shorting week was back in mid-November 2015, soon after the Fed telegraphed its first rate hike of the recent cycle.  Yet that record shorting would soon prove very bullish for gold,birthing a major bull market.  Gold surged 29.9% higher in 6.7 months in the first half of 2016.

Considered together in that latest reported CoT week ending April 16th, speculators’ total long and short selling rocketed to 54.4k contracts!  That is the 5th highest on record, incredibly extreme.  The 1st and 4th weighed in at 70.4k and 56.7k, and both occurred in December 2017.  That record gold-futures selling also proved very bullish, as gold soon surged sharply to challenge a major bull-market breakout above $1350.

https://www.silverdoctors.com/gold/gold-news/near-record-gold-shorting-by-speculators-and-thats-actually-very-bullish/

/ 2 /

Gold futures smashes at odds with fundamentals, John Ing tells King World News
 April 24, 2019 
Recent smashes in the gold futures market don't reflect the monetary metal's fundamentals, gold market analyst John Ing tells King World News this week. With central banks aggressively buying, the Bank for International Settlements proclaiming gold as good as cash and government bonds, and gold miners acquiring each other, Ing says, the metal seems to be a bargain at the moment. Ing's comments are posted at KWN here: 

https://kingworldnews.com/legend-connected-in-china-at-the-highest-levels-says-basel-iii-is-fueling-central-bank-gold-buying/ 
Read more at https://stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard?symbol=t.gcm&postid=29667754#BtcW86y3UusXrvY8.99

[drbubb]

MORE from RAY DALIO

“Just generally as an entrepreneur, you have to think differently in order to be successful. There’s a high risk of being wrong – you have to be audacious, you have to think differently, you have to be confident.” Ray Dalio, founder and chairman of Bridgewater Associates, visited campus tonight for View From The Top. Dalio made his first investment – $300 in Northeast Airlines – when he was just 12 years old. It tripled shortly thereafter when the company merged with another. He went on to start Bridgewater Associates at age 26, growing it to be one of the most successful hedge funds in the world.

 

[hector]

Some more room to go..?

Financial Times: Ultra-bear hedge fund manager suffers huge losses as stocks rally.

Comments section is interesting.

[drbubb]

tza faz

chart : 10d :

: 10d :

[drbubb]

UPDATED Figures show the Big Moves since the beginning of March:

Bitcoins (+49.6%), PHM (+18.8%), were Big winners

==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :   03/29  :  06/29 :  09/28 :  12/31 :   02/01 :  03/01 :  05/03:
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1327.3 : 1254.5 : 1196.2 : 1281.3 : 1322.1 : 1299.2 : 1281.3 :
GLD- : 109.61 : 123.65 : +12.8% : 125.79 : 118.65 : 112.76 : 121.51 : 124.50 : 121.88 : 120.65 :
SPY- : 223.53 : 266.86 : +19.4% : 263.15 : 271.28 : 290.72 : 249.92 : 270.06 : 280.42 : 294.03 :
SPX- : 2238.8 : 2673.6 : +19.4% : 2691.3 : 2718.4 : 2914.0 : 2506.8 : 2706.5 : 2803.7 : 2945.6 :
S/AU: 194.4%: 204.2%: ====== : 219.0%: 216.7%: 243.6%: 195.6% : 204.7% : 215.8% : 229.9%:
WTIc: $53.72 : $60.42 : +12.4% : $64.94 : $74.15 : $73.25 : $45.41 : $55.26 : $55.80 : $61.94 :
XLE : $75.32 : $72.24 : -4.09% : $67.41: $75.94 : $75.74 : $57.35: $64.89 : $66.48: $64.25:
OIH-: $33.35 : $26.05: -11.9% : $23.87 : $26.27 : $25.19 : $14.03: $17.22 : $17.42: $16.34:
OI/X :  44.3% : 36.1% : ====== : 35.41% : 34.59% : 33.25% :  24.46%: 26.54%: 26.20%: 25.43%:
Ngas: $3.350 : $2.950 : - 11.9% : $2.730 : $2.920 : $3.010 : $2.940 : $2.734 : $2.859 : $2.570 :
Cop'r: $2.510 : $3.305 : +31.7% : $3.030 : $2.970 : $2.810 : $2.630 : $2.773 : $2.932 : $2.819 :
Soyb : 1000.0 : 950.00 : ---------------------------------------> 845.50 : 895.00 : 917.75 : 911.50 : 842.25 :
Weat : 408.00 : 426.25 : +4.47%: 451.00 : 501.25 : 509.00 : 503.25 : 524.25 : 457.28 : 438.00 :
Corn : 352.00 : 350.75 : - 0.36% : 387.75 : 371.25 : 356.25 : 375.00 : 378.25 : 373.00 : 370.75 :
CRB- : 192.51 : 193.86 : +0.07% : 195.36 : 200.39 : 195.16 : 169.80 : 180.55 : 181.50 : 181.77 :
DBA : $19.97 : $18.76 : -6.06% : $18.18: $18.03: $16.91 : $16.91: $16.93 : $16.45: $16.03:
D/crb: 10.37% : 9.67% : ====== :  r9.31%: r8.99% : r8.66% : r9.96%: R9.38%: r9.06%: r8.82%:
Xle/D: r-3.770 : r-3.850: +2.14%: R3.707 : R4.212 :  R4.479 : R3.391 : R3.833 : r4.041 : r4.008 :
DXY- : 102.38 : $92.30 : - 9.85% : $89.81 : $94.47 : $95.13 : $96.16 : $95.62 : $96.45 : $97.26 :
TLT- : 119.13 : 126.86 : + 6.49% : 121.90 : 121.72 : 117.27 : 121.51 : 120.96 : 118.66 : 123.66 :
====
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1327.3 : 1254.5 : 1196.2 : 1281.3 : 1322.1 : 1299.2 : 1281.3 :
Au/hd: r1.401 : r1.58E : ====== : R1.569 : r1.532 : r-1.612 : r1.61E : R1.617 : R1.681 : R1.730 :
Hold : 822.17 : 830.00 : +01.0% : 846.12 : 819.04 : 742.23 : 795.8E: 817.40 : 772.46 : 740.82 :
WPM : $19.32 : $22.27: +15.3% : $20.37 : $22.06 : $17.50 :$19.53 : $21.10 : $21.38 : $20.86 :
GDX- : $20.92 : $23.24 : +11.1% : $21.98 : $22.31 :$18.52 : $21.09 : $22.57 : $21.70 : $20.26 :
Gdxj : $31.55 : $34.13 : + 8.18% : $32.15 : $32.70 : $27.36 :$30.22 : $32.84 : $31.44 : $28.41 :
SIL-- : $32.11 : $32.64 : +1.65% : $30.72 : $28.88 : $24.23 : $25.02 : $26.88 : $26.01 : $23.80 :
/SLV: R2.053 : R2.042 : - 0.54% : R1.994 : R1.910 : r1.765 : R1.723 : R1.802 : R1.832 : R1.705 :
SLV- : $15.64 : $15.98 : +2.08% : $15.41 : $15.15 : $13.73 : $14.52 : $14.92 : $14.20 : $13.96 :
Silvr : 16.580 : 17.150 : +3.44% : 16.268 :  16.200 : 14.710 : 15.540: 15.930 : 15.260 : 14.980 :
PHM : $18.38 : $33.33 : +81.4% : $29.49 : $28.75 : $24.77: $25.99 : $27.35 : $26.74 : $31.78 :
EEM- : $35.01 : $47.30 : +35.1% : $48.28 : $43.33 : $42.92: $39.06 : $42.76 : $42.49 : $44.22 :
ShCm: 3103.7 : 3307.2 : +6.56% : 3168.9: 2847.4 : 2821.3 : 2494.0 : 2618.2 : 2994.0 : 3078.3 :
PhpSi: 6840.6 : 8558.4 : +25.1% : 7979.8: 7193.7 : 7276.8 : 7476.0 : 8121.9 : 7641.8 : 7968.0 :
XLF-  : $23.25 : $27.19 : +16.9% : $27.57: $26.59 : $27.58 : $23.82 : $26.05 : $26.69 : $28.07 :
IWM- : 134.85 : 152.43 : +13.0% : 151.83: 163.77 : 168.55 : 133.90 : 149.18 : 158.24 : 160.53 :
F/iwm 17.24%: 17.84%: =====  : 18.16%: 16.24%: 16.36%: 17.79%: 17.46%: 16.87% : 17.49% :
BTC-- : $948.5 : 13,100 : x13.8X : $7,401 : $5,883 : $6,652 : $3,770 :  $3,435 : $3,818 : $5,712 :
===== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :  03/29  :  06/29 :  09/28 :  12/31 :   02/01 :  03/01 : 05/03 :

[drbubb]

Bitcoin Price Will Hit $1 Million in 2020 Because Maths, Stupid: John McAfee

John McAfee has been really bold when it comes to predicting the price of bitcoin, claiming that each unit of the cryptocurrency will be worth $1 million by the end of 2020.

The cybersecurity expert had first said in July 2017 that one bitcoin would be worth $500,000 by the end of 2020. If that didn’t happen, he promised that he’ll do something that none of us probably want to see.

> https://www.ccn.com/john-mcafee-maths-bitcoin-1-million-by-2020?utm_source=CCNUSABrand&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=dd

[drbubb]

Farage Calls for ‘Peaceful Revolution’ to Challenge UK’s ‘Broken’ Politics

“Within the space of three weeks, we’ve taken [this] completely brand new entity, and believe it or not, we are leading in the polls,” Farage reported.

GBP ... 5-years : Last: $1.317

“Something big is happening.”

Nigel Farage has said that the UK’s “broken” and “out of touch” political system needs to be challenged in a “peaceful political revolution” so that Britons can “win back the ability of our nation to be democratic.”

Addressing a crowd at a Brexit Party rally in Flyde, on Saturday, Mr Farage warned that “there is something absolutely fundamental at stake” beyond the campaign for May 23rd’s European Parliament election, which goes to the very core of British democracy.

. . .Mr Farage went on to tell the rally that the two-party system “serves nothing but itself. We have a Parliament that is out of touch with the nation. We have a civil service that has given up on any idea of being independent and many of them are now active Remain campaigners.”

Calling the UK’s political system “rotten to the core,” Farage rallied for a “peaceful political revolution” to “win back our birthright. We are going to win back the ability of our nation to be democratic.”

The Brexit Party is currently polling first in European Parliament voting intentions and is predicted that more than half of those who voted Conservative in the 2017 General Election will vote for the party in the May 23rd election.

[drbubb]

EURO in GBP

EURgbp ... update : Last:  0.85 Pounds

[drbubb]

Most of the big Tech stocks are NEAR Highs

FB-etc ... update

==

[drbubb]

In a time of Fake News - this Man's True Integrity shines through brightly

Project Veritas & Lies in the Media (James O’Keefe Full Interview)