DrBubb's Diary - Nov. 2019 Trading - v.130

[drbubb]

Dr.B's Trading Diary : 2019. Diary's 130th Month = almost 11 years.

10 years since 3/09 Low : Dow closed 2017 @ 24,719, 2018 @ 23,327 - 5.63% (YrH: 26,952 / L: 21,713 - 19.4%)



Top of Page Charts (Odd) : Channel-GE : MP : PP : Charts : Acore : Fringe : Ag B E G H :

Featured Video (coming)

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DrBubb's Diary - Nov. 2019 Trading - v.130

FRT/ Fed Racetrack: Gold (GLD) vs Stocks (SPY) : GLD-SPY : FRTw/SLV : vs.CRB : GLD-hr : SPY-hr : GLD/SPYratio

The Fed's money-printing has maintained confidence in markets - but the money has gone not only into stocks, but also into other areas. For many months, money flowed into commodities like Gold, pushing prices higher even faster than stocks, as the chart above shows. But since Gold's peak in Aug.2011, stocks have outperformed gold. Since then, these two assets have tended to trade counter-cyclically to each other.

Gold in EURO - very worthwhile to track

Short Term:  Gold-in-EUR>: Gold-in-USD>

Medium Term - 3 Years: Gold-inEUR or GLD-toEUR

x

US Stocks: "SPX-in-Euros" .. SPX-to-EUR or SPY-to-FXE  .. update

Ratio - SPX/Euro has often moved in a nice clear channels

DrBubb's "Early Warning System"

Leading Ratio ... LQD:TLT-Weekly-3yrs : TLT-vsLQD : Copper : HG price : CU price : SPY-10/11 : SMH-6mos

I reckon that the LQD-to-TLT ratio should move in harmony with stocks, or maybe LEAD stock moves. If they are moving in different directions, then one should be cautious. (However, the value of this indicator has become suspect in recent years, after giving some false warnings.)
=====
Bullish Percentages :
BPNYA- : http://stockcharts.c...!Lh14,3]&pref=G
BPGDM : http://stockcharts.c...!Lh14,3]&pref=G
NASIT - : NAMOT : Summation Indices

INFLATION Watch / "Drivers" (SPY, GLD, DXY) .. 10d : 6mo-D : 2yr-D : 5yr-D // CU-etc : w/XLE : w/OIH :

COMMS / Gold leading Commodity bounce-back?: Copper. XLE-Oil, FCX, DBA

USO - vs GLD, Ngas, Oilb .... fr. Feb.2009 : 2.17.16 : 9/2017 : end2018 : 10d :

RECORD : CU may lead GLD and SPY
======

US Fed'l Debt // Formula: (Fed'l Debt - $4.0 Trillion ) x 119 +$100

Date-: DebtTr > G.Eqv /10.40 : - GLD - : - SPY - : -DIFF- : - ratio - : -- CU -- : cu/gld : - FXI - : cu-fxi : - DBA- : - BTC - :

end07: $09.23 > 0,722 : 072.2 : $082.46 : $146.21 : -63.75: 56.398% : $20.0e: XX.X% :: $ 17.05: ==== : $ 32.99 :

end08: $10.70 > 0,897 : 089.7 : $086.52 : $090.24 : -$3.72: 95.878% : $20.0e: XX.X% :: $ 29.09: ==== : $ 26.18 :

end09: $12.31 > 1,089 : 108.9 : $107.31 : $111.44 : -$4.13: 96.294% : $30.0e: XX.X% :: $ 42.26: ==== : $ 26.44 :

end10: $14.03 > 1,294: 129.4 : $138.74 : $125.75 : $12.99: 110.34% : $43.71: 31.51%: $ 43.09: $0.62: $ 32.35 : $ 00.29 :

end11: $15.22 > 1,435: 138.0 : $151.99 : $125.50 : $26.49: 121.11% : $29.29: 19.27%: $ 34.87: - 5.58: $ 28.88 : $ 04.60 :

end12: $16.43 > 1,570: 151.0 : $162.02 : $142.41 : $19.61: 113.77% : $30.34: 18.73%: $ 40.45:-10.11: $ 27.95 : $ 13.48 :

end13: $17.35 > 1,689: 162.4 : $116.12 : $184.69 : -68.57 : 062.87% : $22.27: 19.18%: $ 38.37:-16.10: $ 24.25 :$815.00 :

end14: $18.14 > 1,783 : 171.4 : $113.58 : $205.54 : -98.04 : 55.26% :: $18.09: 15.93%: $ 41.62:-23.53: $ 24.89 :$316.20 :

end15: $18.83 > 1,865 : 179.3 : $101.46 : $203.87 :-102.41: 49.77% :: 2.135 : 2.140%: $ 35.29:-00.00: $ 20.61: $433.50 :

end16

(2016)
01/29: $19.01 > 1,886 : 180.0 : $108.05 : $193.65 : - $85.60: 55.80% :: 2.060 : 1.907% $ 31.20:-00.00: $ 19.99: $375.00 :
02/29: $19.13 > 1,900 : 181.3 : $118.64 : $193.56 : - $74.98: 61.29% :: 2. ??? : 1.000% $ 30.00: -00.00: $ 20.00: $434.00 :
03/31: $19.26 > 1,916 : 182.8 : $117.64 : $205.52 : - $87.88: 57.24% :: 2. ??? : 1.000% $ 33.77: -13.17: $ 20.60: $415.00 :
04/30: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $123.65 : $206.33 : - $82.68: 59.93% :: 2. ??? : 1.000% $ 33.53: -12.45: $ 21.08: $4 ??.00 :
05/31: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $116.06 : $209.84 : - $93.78: 55.31% :: 2.080 : 1.792% $ 33.65: -12.34: $ 21.31: $526.10 :

06/30: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $126.47 : $209.48 : - $83.01: 60.37% :: 2.0 ?? : 0.000% $ 00.00: -00.00: $ 00.00: $0
07/31: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $128.98 : $217.12 : - $88.14: 59.40% :: 2.0 ?? : 0.000% $ 00.00: -00.00: $ 00.00: $0
08/31: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $124.78 : $217.38 : - $92.60: 57.40% :: 2.080 : 1.667% $ 37.08: -16.85: $ 20.23: $570.00 :

=====
ye'16 : $20.0E > 1,8 xx : 18x.x :

Date-: DebtTr > G.Eqv /10.40 : - GLD - : - SPY - : -DIFF- : - ratio - : -- CU -- : cu/gld : - FXI - : cu-fxi : - DBA- : - BTC - :

======

"GOLD Formula" is : (Fed'l Debt - $4.0 Trillion ) x 119 +$100 : US Govt Debt :: http://www.usgovernmentdebt.us/

The FED must be pleased with the way that money has flowed into stocks, away from Gold. / notes : a b c

[drbubb]

DAILY DATA

Month: -SPY- : Chg : volume/ VIX : GDX: +-chg: -GLD- : Chg: volume: x10.?? WTI.Cr: -DXY-- -Chg- : --TLT-: Chg : Posts/Views cum'l

2015
12-31: 203.87 - 2.06: 91.2M: 18.21 : 13.72 +0.06: 101.46 +0.04 : 3.81M: 1060.5 $37.07* 98.693 +0.413: 120.58 +0.54 : 02, 086/ 051, 1,913

 2016
03-31: 205.52 - 0.50: 79.4M: 13.95 : 19.97 - 0.26: 117.64 +0.54: 9.17M: 1233.9 $38.11: $94.63 - 0.10 : 130.61 +0.92 : 096/ 4,518
06-30: 209.48 +2.82: 143.M: 15.63 : 27.71 +0.56: 126.47 +0.63: 15.1M: 1324.7 $48.40: $95.81 +0.05 : 138.90 +0.51: 055/ 1,941
09-30: 216.30 +1.62: 98.7M: 13.29 : 26.43 - 0.26: 125.64 - 0.43: 10.8M: 1317.1 $48.24; $95.42 - 0.10 : 137.51 - 1.24/ 096 : 6,335
12-30: 223.53 - 0.82: 86.9M: 14.04 : 20.92 - 0.83: 109.61 - 0.68: 8.79M: 1151.7 $53.72: 102.38 - 0.27 : 119.13 +0.18/ 096: 13876  

2017
01-31: 227.53 - 0.02 00.0M: 12.09 : 23.93 +0.78: 115.55 +1.68 0.00M: 1211.8 $52.80: $99.74 -0.62 : 119.84 +0.57/ 120: 10255
02-28: 236.47 - 0.64 69.6M: 12.92 : 22.85 +0.01: 119.23 +0.11 8.29M: 1253.9 $54.01: 101.48 +0.32 : 121.74 +0.45/ 085: 7,634
03-31: 235.74 - 0.55 56.2M: 12.37 : 22.81 +0.26: 118.72 +0.25 8.14M: 1251.2 $50.60: 100.22 - 0.07 : 120.71 +0.35/ 120: 23202
04-28: 238.08 - 0.52 50.4M: 10.82 : 22.23 +0.42: 120.77 +0.38 8.86M: 1268.3 $49.33: $99.04 - 0.15 : 122.35 +0.27/ 098: 11915
05-31: 241.44 - 0.06 00.0M: 10.41 : 22.69 +0.10: 120.62 +0.48 0.00M: 1264.8: $48.32: $97.21 +0.00 : 124.14 +0.05/ 106: 6,918
06-30: 241.80 +0.45 49.4M: 11.18 : 22.08 + 0.13: 118.02 -0.30 6.79M: 1242.3: $46.04: $95.64 +0.09 : 125.12 - 0.29/ 095: 5,020
07-31: 246.77 - 0.14 42.9M: 10.25 : 22.86 - 0.05 : 120.75 +0.06 3.82M: 1273.8 $50.17: $92.90 - 0.43 : 124.04 +0.15/ 094: 5,056
08-31: 247.49 +1.48 75.8M: 10.59 : 24.72 +0.56 : 125.82 +1.46 11.3M: 1322.2 $47.23: $92.62 +0.06 : 127.99 +0.38/ 091: 5,034
09-29: 251.23 +0.88 60.7M: 09.51 : 22.96 - 0.20 : 121.58 - 0.63 8.77M: 1284.8 $51.67: $93.07 - 0.06 : 124.76 +0.28/ 067 : 4,235
10-31: 257.15 +0.40 42.7M: 10.18 : 22.48 - 0.28 : 120.67 - 0.46 3.76M: 1277.5 $54.20: $94.54 +0.01 : 124.46 +0.04/ 101 : 2,371
11-30: 265.01 +2.30 104.M: 11.28 : 22.47 - 0.03 : 121.10 - 0.94 7.84M: 1276.7 $57.40: $92.97  - 0.09 : 125.12 - 0.42/ 079 : 2180
12-29: 266.86 - 1.01 60.8M: 11.04 : 23.24 +0.04 : 123.65 +0.80 7.55M: 1309.3 $60.42 : $92.30 - 0.20 : 126.86 +0.20/ 107 : 1590

2018
01-31: 281.90 +0.14 97.6M: 13.54 : 23.75 +0.30 : 127.65 +0.85 13.0M: 1343.1 $64.73 : $89.11 +0.06 : 122.73 +0.72/
02-28: 271.65 - 2.78 101.M: 19.85 : 21.35 - 0.14 : 125.00 - 0.13 4.52M: 1317.9 $61.64 : $90.73 +0.07 : 118.75 +0.75/ 076 : 1093
03-29: 263.15 +3.32 104.M: 19.97 : 21.98 - 0.01 : 125.79 +0.06 6.84M: 1327.3 $64.94 : $90.01 -0.13 : 121.90 +0.59/ 067: 0,880
04-30: 264.51 - 2.05 65.0M: 15.93 : 22.28 - 0.45 : 124.59 - 0.91 9.59M: 1319.2 $68.57 : $91.86 +0.27 : 119.10 +0.21/ 074, 0,630
05-31: 270.94 - 1.67 78.4M: 15.43 : 22.34 - 0.10 : 123.10 - 0.27 7.62M: 1304.7 $66.24 : $93.98 - 0.09 : 121.22 - 0.20/ 074 : 0667
06-29: 271.28 +0.39 74.2M: 16.09 : 22.31 +0.38 : 118.65 +0.43 7.67M: 1254.5 $74.15 : $94.47 - 0.85 : 121.72 - 0.42/ 100 : 1026
07-31: 281.22 +1.38 57.6M: 12.83 : 21.28 +0.01 : 115.99 +0.34 5.45M: 1233.6 $68.76 : $94.55 +0.20 : 119.70 +0.65/ 108 : 1038
08-31: 290.31 +0.01 52.7M: 13.81 : 18.55 - 0.14 : 113.51 - 0.13 4.82M: 1206.7 $69.80 : $95.08 +0.00 : 121.00 - 0.29/ 096 : 0954
09-28: 290.72 +0.03 57.6M: 12.12 : 18.52 +0.18 : 112.76 +0.71 5.78M: 1196.2 $73.25 : $95.13 +0.16 : 117.27 - 0.31/ 081: 0753
10-31: 270.63 +2.86 000.M: 21.23 : 18.93 - 0.21 : 115.15 - 0.65 0.00M: 1215.0 $65.31 : $96.85 - 0.15 : 113.31 - 0.85/ 114: 1184
11-30: 275.65 +1.67 78.5M: 18.07 : 19.09 - 0.08 : 115.54 - 0.20 7.83M: 1220.2 $50.93 : $97.20 +0.41 : 115.33 +0.43/ 163: 1556
12-31: 249.92 +2.17 111.M: 25.42 : 21.09 +0.49 : 121.25 +0.19 8.38M: 1281.3 $45.41 : $96.16 - 0.25 : 121.51 +0.51/ 127: 1254
=====

---: SPY- : Chg : volume/ VIX : GDX: +-chg: -GLD- : Chg: volume: x10.?? WTI.Cr: -DXY- -Chg.- : --TLT- : Chg : Posts/Views cum'l:

DEC
28: 247.75 - 0.32 140.M: 28.34 : 20.60 -0.37 : 121.06 + 0.49 6.75M: 1283.0 $45.33 : $96.39 -0.18 : 121.05 +1.01/ 00, 115: 000, 1100 :
31: 249.92 +2.17 111.M: 25.42 : 21.09 +0.49 : 121.25 +0.19 8.38M: 1281.3 $45.41 : $96.16 -0.25 : 121.51 +0.51/ 00, 127: 000, 1254 :
JAN
30: 267.58 +4.17 84.3M: 17.66 : 22.18 +0.21 : 124.69 +0.71 12.1M: 1315.5 $54.23 : $95.24 - 0.57 : 120.93 - 0.09/ 03, 103: 034, 1195
31: 269.93 +2.35 80.5M: 16.57 : 22.69 +0.51 : 124.75 +0.06 10.0M: 1325.2 $53.79 : $95.56 +0.32 : 121.97 +1.04/ 00, 108: 000, 1284:

FEB
27: 279.20 - 0.12 52.3M: 14.70 : 22.35 - 0.38: 124.69 - 0.89 7.76M: 1321.2 $56.94 : $96.10 -0.02 : 120.43 - 1.38/ 00, 082: 000, 718
28: 278.68 - 0.52 56.1M: 14.78 : 22.24 - 0.11: 123.99 - 0.90 7.51M: 1316.1 $57.22 : $96.23 +0.23 : 120.02 - 0.41/ 03, 085, 032, 750
Mar
28: 280.71 +1.06 53.0M: 14.43 : 22.41 -0.60: 121.90 -1.75 11.4M: 1295.3 $59.30 : $97.20 +0.28 : 126.56 +0.44/
29: 282.48 +1.77 64.1M: 13.71 : 22.42 +0.01: 122.01 +0.11 6.59M: 1298.5 $60.14 : $97.21 +0.01 : 126.44 -0.12/ 01: 83, 022: 688
Apr
29: 293.87 +0.46: 57.2M: 13.11 : 20.84 - 0.46: 120.83 - 0.54 4.47M: 1281.4 $63.50 : $97.86 - 0.15: 123.02 - 0.19/ 00, 071: 000, 640
30: 294.02 +0.15: 00.0M: 13.12 : 20.89 +0.05: 121.20 +0.37 0.00M: 1286.7 $63.91 : $97.53 - 0.33: 123.65 +0.63/ 00, 074: 000, 680
MAY
30: 279.03 +0.76: 82.1M: 17.30 : 20.77+0.45 : 121.69 +0.82 7.76M: 1292.4 $56.59: $98.17 +0.03: 130.20 +1.11/ 00, 092: 000, 1000
31: 275.27 - 3.76: 86.9M: 18.71 : 21.59 +0.82 : 123.33 +1.64 15.4M: 1311.1 $53.50: $97.61 -0.56: 131.83 +1.63/ 02, 094: 047, 1047

June
26: 290.47 - 0.29: 51.6M: 16.21: 25.52 -0.11: 132.97 - 1.23 12.0M: 1000.0 $00.00: $96.27 - 0.02: 131.97 -0.85/
27:  291.50 +1.03 00.0M: 15.82:
28: 293.00 +1.50: 59.4M: 15.08: 25.56 +0.00: 133.20 -0.00 00.0M: 1000.0 $00.00:  $96.20 -0.00: 132.55 +0.00/ 00,060: 000, 720
July
29: 301.46 - 0.55: 38.1M: 12.83: 27.77 +0.49: 134.53 +0.89 9.16M: 1420.0 $00.00: $98.05 +0.00: 131.51 +0.00/
30: 300.72 - 0.74: 45.8M: 13.94: 27.83 +0.06: 134.98 +0.45 9.45M: 1442.0 $00.00: $98.06 +0.01: 131.83 +0.32/
31: 297.43 - 3.29: 104.M: 16.12 : 26.50 - 1.33: 133.21 - 1.77 18.8M: 1437.8 $58.58: $98.82 +0.76: 132.89 +1.06/

AUG
29: 292.58 +3.69: 58.0M: 17.88 : 29.66 - 0.75: 144.12 - 1.04 14.8M: 1536.9 $56.71: $98.44 - 0.07: 147.24 - 0.56/ 00, 50: 000, 435
30: 292.45 - 0.13: 63.0M: 18.98 : 29.86 +0.20: 143.75 - 0.37 9.64M: 1529.4 $55.10: $98.81 +0.47: 147.28 +0.04/
SEP
26: 297.00 - 0.62: 58.7M: 16.07 : 28.11 - 0.32: 141.79 - 0.04 8.80M: 1510.0 $56.52: 4.79=11.80 $99.13 +0.12: 142.38 +0.91/
27: 295.40 - 1.60: 84.8M: 17.22 : 27.45 - 0.66: 141.06 - 0.73 9.67M: 1502.3 $55.85: 4.79=11.66  $99.12 -0.01: 142.73 +0.35/
30: 296.77 +1.37: 52.6M: 16.24 : 26.71 - 0.74: 138.87 - 2.29 15.5M: 1479.0 $54.32: 4.79=11.34 $99.38 +0.26: 143.08 +0.00/
OCT
30: 304.14 +0.93: 54.9M: 12.33 : 27.45 +0.24: 141.02 +0.77 6.99M: 1500.0 $55.00: 4.795=11.47 $97.65 - 0.08: 139.36 +2.01/
31: 303.33 - 0.81: 79.6M: 13.22 : 28.15 +0.70: 142.43 +1.41 0.00M: 1514.8 $54.18: 4.795=11.30 $97.35 - 0.30: 140.99 +1.63/
NOV
01: 306.14 +2.81: 71.0M: 12.30 : 28.01 - 0.14: 142.56 + 0.13 8.08M: 1511.4 $56.20: 4.808=11.69 $97.12 - 0.23: 140.56 - 0.43/
04: 307.37 +1.23: 60.6M: 13.00 : 27.52 - 0.42: 142.15 - 0.41 4.74M: 1511.1 $56.54: 4.787=11.81 $97.65 +0.53: 138.71 - 1.95/
05: 307.03 - 0.34: 42.9M: 13.10 : 26.97 - 0.55: 139.85 - 2.30 11.8M: 1483.7 $57.23: 4.797=11.93 $97.94 +0.29: 137.15 - 1.56/
06: 307.10 +0.07: 46.5M: 12.62 : 27.30 +0.33: 140.45 +0.60 6.42M: 1493.1 $56.35: 4.771=11.81 $97.95 +0.01: 137.98 +0.83/
07: 308.18 +1.08: 54.3M: 12.73 : 26.49 - 0.81: 138.27 - 2.18 15.2M: 1466.4 $57.15: 4.811=11.88 $98.13 +0.18: 135.48 - 2.50/
08: 308.94 +0.78: 49.1M: 12.07 : 26.23 - 0.26: 137.39 - 0.88 10.4M: 1462.9 $57.24: 4.774=11.99 $98.40 - 0.27: 134.91 - 0.57/
11: 308.35 - 0.59: 35.8M: 12.69 : 26.24 +0.01: 137.06 - 0.33 7.01M: 1457.1 $56.86: 4.782=11.89 $98.21 - 0.19: 135.00 +0.09/
12: 308.57 +0.32: 30.3M: 12.68 : 26.59 +0.35: 137.43 +0.37 6.45M: 1453.7 $56.80: 4.785=11.87 $98.33 +0.12: 135.62 +0.62/
13: 309.10 +0.53: 00.0M: 13.00 : 26.75 +0.16: 137.98 +0.55 0.00M: 1463.3 $57.12 : 4.778=11.96 $98.16 - 0.17: 136.50 +0.88/
14: 309.55 +0.45: 51.9M: 13.05 : 27.00 +0.25: 138.56 +0.58 5.22M: 1473.4 $56.77: 4.767=11.91 $98.14 - 0.02: 137.91 +1.41/
15: 311.79 +2.24: 62.7M: 12.05 : 26.74 - 0.26: 138.21 - 0.35 10.1M: 0000.0 $57.86: 4.79E=12.08 $98.00 - 0.14: 137.76 - 0.14/
18: 312.02 +0.23: 00.0M: 12.46 : 27.20 +0.46: 138.62 +0.41 0.00M: 1471.9 $57.14: 4.801=11.90 $97.86 +0.00: 138.01 +0.25/
19: 311.93 - 0.09: 67.9M: 12.86 : 27.23 +0.03: 138.69 +0.07 4.83M: 1474.3 $55.35: 4.784=11.57 $97.91 +0.05: 139.16 +1.15/
20: 310.77 - 1.16: 79.9M: 12.78 : 27.34 + 0.11: 138.76 +0.07 6.89M: 1474.2 $57.01: 4.791=11.90 $97.87 - 0.04: 140.70 +1.44/
21: 310.27 - 0.50: 54.7M: 13.13 : 26.82 - 0.52: 138.00 -0.78 4.20M: 1463.6 $58.58: 4.802=12.20 $97.95 +0.08: 139.72 -0.88/
22: 310.96 +0.69: 44.9M: 12.34 : 26.76 - 0.06:
25: 313.37 +2.41; 00.0M: 11.87 : 26.00 +0.00: 137.08 +0.00 0.00M: 1000.0 $00.00: 4.79E=00.00 $98.23 +0.00: 140.31 +0.00/
26: 314.08 +0.71: 37.7M: 11.54 : 26.78 +0.58: 137.74 +0.66 4.73M: 1000.0 $58.39: 4.79E=12.19 $98.31 +0.06: 141.13 +0.82/
27: 315.48 +1.40: 44.8M: 11.75 : 26.66 - 0.12: 137.01 -0.73 4.11M: 1460.8 $58.11: 4.787=12.14 $98.34 - 0.07: 140.72 - 0.41/
28: Holiday.. with 1/2 day n Friday
29: 314.31 - 1.17: 36.6M: 12.67 : 27.08 +0.43: 137.86 +0.85 4.52M: 1472.7 $55.17: 4.748=11.62 $98.27 - 0.07: 140.42 - 0.30/

02: 311.64 - 2.67: 76.1M: 14.91 : 27.17 +0.09: 137.79 - 0.07 8.28M:  1000.0 $00.00: 4.000=11.67 97.91 - 0.36: 138.31 - 2.11
===

[drbubb]

Year End price Recap

Prices---- > YrE'16 : YrE'17 : change :  YrE'18 : change :
Gold ------ : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1281.3 : - 2.15% :
GLD ------ : 109.61 : 123.65 : +12.8% : 121.25 : - 1.94% :
Ratio ------: r10.51 : r10.59 : ====== : r10.567 : ===== :
GDX ------ : $20.92 : $23.24 : +11.1% : $21.09 : - 9.75% :
GDXJ ---- : $31.55 : $34.13 : +8.18% : $30.22 : - 11.5% :
SIL -------- : $32.11 : $32.64 : +1.65% : $25.02 : - 23.3% :
SLV-------- : $15.64 : $15.98 : +2.08% : $14.52 : - 9.14% :
Ratio ------: r2.053 : R2.043 : ====== : R1.723 : ===== : :
WTI ------- : $53.72 : $60.42 : +12.5% : $45.41 : - 24.8% :
USO ------- : $11.72 : $12.01 : +2.47% : $ 9.66 : - 19.6% :
OIH ------- : $33.25 : $26.05 : - 21.7% : $14.03 : - 46.1% :
XLE ------- : $75.32 : $72.26 : - 4.06% : $57.35 : - 20.6% :
SHcomp : $3,104. : $3,307 : +6.54% : $2,494 : - 24.6% :
=======

Some months ago, with Gold stabilizing, I wrote:

"Many Gold shares are COILED & Ready to spring - if the Dollar slides below $97"

But the USD is still over $97, while Gold has jumped over $1300 again. This looks good

  : :

USD Index/DXY: $96.11 -0.29 : Gold : $1282.10 +1.70 ...

DXY/ Trade-wgt $/12mo : 2yr : DXY: $97.61+1.44, EUR: $1.1200 -0.027, GBP: $1.264, CAD: $0.738, AUD: $0.694, PHP: 52.15 (from last mo.)

GDXJ - OIH  vs UDN, SLV ... fr.1/2008 w/Dba : 7/2008 w/Dba : GDXJ: $29.53 +1.03 , OIH: $13.08 -0.36, USO: $11.10 -0.66

FXFX : 2017-mid'19 :

Group #1 : update : old chart : JNUG ($7.55 -22.6%), UGLD ($96.39 +1.84%), GDXJ ($29.53 -7.11%) - from last month

Group # 2: update : GCM.t ($3.49 -0.85%), CCO.t ($13.64 -12.3%), MUX.t ($1.82 -9.91%)

OIH ($13.08 -27.3%) vs. Drillers: HAL ($21.29 -31.3%), MDR ($6.04 -27.8%), ESV ($8.37 -48.1%)

[drbubb]

Long Term Charts updated from time-to-time, to at least: April 30, 2017

=== 

IWM / etf for Russell-2000 - 12/31/16 : $134.85,  12/31/17 : $152.46 : 

All-log : 10-yrs : 12mos // SPY ... : To-End-2015 : last-12mos



KEY CHARTS 
===========

SPY / S&P500 etf - (UP) ...SPY: to 12/31/16 : $223.53,  12/31/17 : $266.86

updated 12/17/2018 : 2,545.94

All-log / 3yrs : 4yrs : 5yrs : 10yrs : TREND is still UP, but may be rolling over

SPX ... 10-yr

.
TLT / T-Bonds etf - (DOWN) ... TLT: to 12/31/16 : $119.13,  12/31/17 : $126.86

All / 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yr : Made an important Peak in 2016 (?) identified in prior chart here !

.
UUP / USDollar x2 etf - (Peaking?) ... to 12/31/16 : $26.46,,  12/31/17 : $24.03

All / 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yr : long ter, TREND is still UP,

.
USO / Oil etf - (Battling DOWNtrend) ... to 12/31/16 : $11.72, 12/31/17 : $12.01

All / 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yr : 10yrL : Price is battling that old Downtrend

.
XLE / Oil stocks - (Fighting back UP) ... to 12/31/16 : $75.32,  12/31/17 : $72.26

All-log / 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : TREND is still Up

.
OIH / Oil service - (Fight DOWNtrend) ... $11.72, 2016  ,  12/31/17 : $26.05

All-Log :  3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : Major Bottom in place?

.
GLD / Gold etf - (Reversing Downtrend?) ... 12/31/16 : 109.61,  12/31/17 : $123.65

All : 3yrs : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : Reversing to Up?

.
GDX / Gold stocks - (Breaking Downtrend?) ... 12/31/16 : $20.92,  12/31/17 : $23.24

GDX ... All-Log : 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : Reversed to Up in 2016 maybe?

.HUI Chart - price data goes back further ... 12/31/16 : 182.31, 2016 range: $99.19 to 286.05 : +199.4% - beta 7.64

All-data :

China's Shanghai index last bounced of a support level near 2,600
ShComp 12/31/16 : 3103.6, 2016 range: 2638.3 to 3538.7 : +34.12% - beta 1.305

CN : SHcomp ... All-Log : All-Data

===== other CHARTS =====

10yrs :&nbs

[drbubb]

BRADLEY Model : "TURN dates"

SPY... 2015-2019: 12-31-16: $223.53 / 12-29-17: $266.86 : +19.4%

2016 : +Jan. 5, -May 10, +June 1, -July 5, +??, -Sep. 28, +Nov. 29
2017 : +Dec. 29, -Apr.17, +Apr.29, -Jun.21, +Aug.19, -Sep .7, +Dec.3, /
2018 : -Jan.4, +Jan.17
2019 : +Jan.18, +Apr.17, -May29, -Aug28, +Oct.9, -Dec3 

Model dates: 2019 : 2018 : 2017 : 2016 : 2015 :

===

Historical TURN: Bonds peaked first in 2015, then the Dollar, then stocks...

TLT... 2015-2019 : 12-31-16: $119.13 / 12-31-17: $126.86 : +6.49%

USD trade-weighted dollar:

DXY ... 2015-2019 : DXY-all-data : 12-31-16: $102.36 / '17: $92.28 : -9.72%

sym: ye.2016 : ye.2017 : %.chg : 2017-H :
SPY : $223.53 : $266.86 : +19.4% : 268.60 :
TLT : $119.13 : $126.86 : +6.49% : 129.57 :
DXY : $102.21 : $92.282 : -9.72% : 103.82 :
Djia  : $19,763 : $24,719 : +25.1% : 24,876 :
GLD-: $109.61 : $123.65 : +12.8% : 128.32 :
EUR-: $1.0520 : $1.2001 : +14.1% : 1.2093 :
Dj/E : E18,786 : E20,597 : +9.64% :
PHP-: P49.606 : P50.009 : +0.00% : 52.006 :
====

OTHER Indices : USO : GLD : GDX : PHM : IYR : UGLD-vsGDX : : IMGHST.co

[drbubb]

MARKET CYCLES - Gold vs Property Charts

Gold and Property appear to be counter-cyclical - Time to switch into Gold?

Pulte (PHM) vs. Gold (GLD) ... update / 3-yrs :

BLUE Box: Sell PHM, Buy Gold / Red Box: Buy PHM, Sell Gold

OLD CHART !



3-years Chart : Key Level for PHM ($24.50) - Old chart :

OLD CHART PHM: $24.50, GLD: $112.57 / ratio: 21.8%

NEW CHART: PHM showed nice rally vs Gold ... update : Last (4/5/19) :  PHM: $28.94, GLD: $121.98 / ratio: 23.7%

RATIO : PHM-to-GLD / rose from 21.8% > 23.7% . that's +8.7% higher , and may be peaking out now

 

[drbubb]

Gas down, Oil down... OIH making new lows (AGAIN! early Aug.)



WTI crude

OIH / Oil Service

 

"Oil Service stocks are still under pressure" - I said May 2nd

HAL, etc ... update : 10d / Last: $21?

Sym. 31may: 01may: -Chg. -Pct%: PER : Yield :
HAL: $21.29: $27.59 -6.30 -22.8%:10.6: 3.38%
SLB:  $34.69: $41.37 -6.68, -16.1%: 23.8: 5.77%
Bhge $21.41: $23.55 -2.14, -9.09%: 66.9: 3.36%
OIH : $13.08: $16.14 -3.06, -19.0%: N/ A: 2.29%
XLE : $58.77: $64.79 -6.02. -9.29%: N/ A: 3.52%
CNQ: $26.99: $28.94 -1.95, -6.74%: 14.5: 4.13%
CHK: $ 1.92 : $ 2.83 -0.91, -32.2%: 4.43: 0.00%
SWN: $ 3.52 : $  3.87 -0.25, -6.46%: 2.14: 0.00%
USO: $11.10 : $13.22 -2.12, -16.0%: ==
WTI: $53.50: $63.60 -10.1,-15.9%: ==
NGas $ 2.45: $2.62: - 0.17, -6.49%:
NG/wt r-4.6%: r-4.1%: :

Ratio: NatGas to-WTI Crude - @ r-4.12% - Buy NatGas versus Oil?



[drbubb]

Hang Lung: The Price GAP narrows AGAIN, as higher yielding HK101 outperforms HK10 >

Reaching *nearly* Yield Parity.

HK101/ HLP vs HK10 / HLG ... update : 10d. w/Hk2823 : $17.66 +0.44 > $21.50 +0.15, Gap: $2.84 / Ratio: 82.1%



Date-- — : Hk10-: HK101: $Gap : Ratio- / HK2823: ratio / Dv.80 : Dv.75: gap-: R.Yields:
BookVal. : $63.49: $30.58: NMF-: r208.%/ =========== /  80cts. 75cts. 5cents: R-div. :
Earns/sh.: $ 3.88 : $ 1.80 : $2.08: r216.%/
Dividends: $0.80 : $0.75 : $0.05: r107.%/
09/03/19: $20.20: $18.88: $1.32: r107.%/ $14.68: r-138%/ . 3.96% 3.97%: 0.01%:  r99.7%:
08/30/19: $19.48: $17.72: $1.76: r110.%/ $14.52: r-134%/   4.11% 4.23%: 0.12%:   r97.2%:
06/28/19: $21.65: $18.58: $3.07: r117.%/ $14.94: r-145.%/  3.70% 4.04%: 0.34%:  r91.6%:
03/29/19: $25.20: $19.16: $7.02: r117.%/ $14.58: r-173.%/  3.17% 3.91%: 0.74%:  r81.1%:
12/31/18 : $19.94: $14.92: $5.02: r134.%/ $11.40: r-175.%/ 4.01% 5.03%: 1.02%:  r79.7%:
12/29/17 : $28.75: $19.10: $9.66: r151.%/ $15.02: r-191.%/  2.78% 3.93%: 1.15%: r70.7%:
—————

 Wow!

The pricing gap has now narrowed so much that both stocks have (almost) the same yield.

Meantime, HK10 has about 108% more asset backing than HK101.

A pairs trade : Long HK10 / Short HK101, may be virtually risk-free, apart from (important) liquidity & borrowing issues

[drbubb]

Oil prices are near their L.T. Low versus Gold : USO-$11.88 / GLD-$138.27: r-8.59% vs. 7.5% LT Low

USO - vs GLD, Ngas, Oilb .... fr. Feb.2009 : 2.17.16 : 9/2017 : end2018 : 10d :

[drbubb]

Oil prices are near their L.T. Low versus Gold : USO-$11.88 / GLD-$138.27: r-8.59% vs. 7.5% LT Low

USO - vs GLD, Ngas, Oilb .... fr. Feb.2009 : 2.17.16 : 9/2017 : end2018 : 10d :

/ 2 /

ALL E : 12mo : fm. Apr.2018 : 10d /

> See: ALL ENERGY thread

[drbubb]

Here's someone who GETS it : (two Yale grads speaking)

Heather MacDonald: The Diversity Delusion | The Eric Metaxas Radio Show

 

 

[drbubb]

Gold might jump from here - Bonds too

GLD ... chart : w/TLT / last:

TLT ... chart / last:

Thursday, November 07, 2019

10-year Treasury yield on track for biggest one-day surge since Trump election MarketWatch

After months of staying pessimistic about global economic growth, amid the U.S. - China trade war, traders of long-term government bonds succumbed to a burst of investor optimism after reports said an agreement had been reached on a framework for rolling back import duties.

The result was the biggest selloff in the U.S. Treasury 10-year note since President Donald Trump’s election in Nov. 2016, when his victory sent long-term bond yields skyrocketing on the expectation that his administration would embark on pro-cyclical fiscal policies that would boost inflation.

Trump delivered on those expectations by getting his trillion dollar tax cut passed in Congress at the end of 2017, but bond yields have plummeted this year under the weight of concerns about Trump’s protectionist international trade policies which slowed the global economy.

The 10-year Treasury note yield TMUBMUSD10Y, +1.28%   is up 0.137 percentage points or 13.7 basis points on Thursday, the largest one-day climb since the day of Trump’s election when it gained 19.8 basis points. The benchmark yield is on pace for its highest closing level since July 31 when it settled at 2.034%, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

Early Thursday Bloomberg reported China and the U.S. will cancel planned tariffs on each other’s products in stages, with the first agreement due to be signed in the next few weeks. The amount of tariff relief that’s coming will depend on what’s in that deal, said Ministry of Commerce spokesman Gao Feng, according to the South China Morning Post. By early afternoon, a U.S. official confirmed the agreement.

[drbubb]

Investors should short the S&P 500: Gary Shilling

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bL1EuhFS_u4

He now short for the first time since the GFC

[drbubb]

GLD vs-TLT ... update ./

[drbubb]

REPOSTING /& Updating a Nov. 2nd post.... (from the SOXX thread)

US Stocks Coming at an Extreme.. and a Turning Point?

- Last hurrah possibly?  Watch SOXX over the next few days, for signs of a turn.

Maybe we have seen the last cut in Interest rates (on Thursday) in this cycle

(Is bellwether Phillippines PSEI already past its peak? peak@8,400, now abt.8,000: chart )

SOXX vs. SPY, IWM ... 6mo : fr.5.1.2019 :  10d /

Nov.01 : 229.50 +2.30% : SPY: 306.14 +0.93%. IWM: 158.10, tza: 40.97  R:sx/sp- 75.0%
Nov.08 : 235.76 +0.50% : SPY: 308.94 +0.25%. IWM: 159.08, tza: 40.23  R:sx/sp- 76.3%

IDEA (11/9): BUY - jan.$310P @$7.20, $313P @$8.68



IWM-soxx-spy fr. 11.10.18:

Ratio: SOXX to-SPY: was R- 75.0%, now R- 76.3%

SOXX -toTLT Ratio ... may soon peak out around 178%, giving a possible market peak

Look at VIX, the Volatility Index (12.3%).... seemingly on the bottom of a range, like TZA & FAZ

TZA, vs. VIX, FAZ ... update: fr.11.1.18:  10d / Last: $40.97, 12.3% - 6.96%, $31.71

Straddles (SPX: 308.94 / IWM: $159.08 / r: 194.3% / vix: 12.07%)

(Prev: SPX: $306.14 / IWM: $158.10 / r: 193.6% / vix: 12.3% )

(Prev. straddle: J'20-306: $6.73+$6.93=13.66: 4.46% @spy:306.14/45.6%: 9.78%)

SPX:   Call +  Put =  Dec : - pct.  /   Call +  Put =   J’20 :  pct.   /    Call +  Put = Feb. :  pct.  /
313: $2.70+$7.22=$9.92: 3.21%/ $4.09+$8.65=12.74: 4.12%/ $6.32+10.44=16.76: 5.42%/
309: $4.82+$5.11=$9.93: 3.21%/ $6.30+$6.78=13.08:4.23%/ $8.67+$8.75=17.42: 5.64%/
304: $8.34+$3.41=11.75: 3.80%/ $9.70+$5.09=14.79: 4.79%/  12.01+7.08=19.09: 6.18%/
Days: 41 days ( /33.5%: 9.58% ) /  69 days ( /43.5%: 9.72%)  /  104 days ( /53.4%: 10.6%)/
===
IWM:   Call +  Put =  Dec : - pct. /   Call +  Put =   J’20 :  pct.    /    Call +  Put = Feb. :  pct.   /
163: $1.27+$6.39=$7.66: 4.85%/ $2.05+$7.07= $9.12: 5.77%/ $3.16+$7.94=11.10: 7.03%/
158: $3.52+$3.52=$7.04: 4.46%/ $4.47+$4.44=$8.91: 5.64%/ $5.71+$5.46=11.17: 7.07%/
154: $6.25+$2.14=$8.39: 5.31%/ $7.11+$3.06= 10.17: 6.04%/ $8.29+$4.05=12.34: 7.81%/
Days: 48 days ( /36.3%: 12.3% ) /   76 days ( /45.6%: 12.4%)  /  111 days ( /55.1%: 12.8%) /
===
( Soxx: $235.76, TZA: $40.23. TNA: $63.78, Prev:  Soxx: $229.50, TZA: $40.97. TNA: $62.69)
Soxx:   Call +  Put =  Dec : - pct.  /   Call +  Put =   J’20 : pct.   /  
235: $7.65+$7.20=14.85: 6.30%/ $9.80+$9.35=20.15: 8.55%/
230: 10.75+$5.25=16.00: 6.79%/ 12.70 +$7.35=21.05: 8.93%/43.8%= 19.5%
Days: 41 days ( /33.5%: 18.8%  )/  69 days ( /43.8%: 19.5%)   /
Prev
230: $6.85+$8.10=14.95: 6.51%/ $8.85+10.00=18.85: 8.21%/50.0%= 00.0%
===
TZA:   Call +  Put =  Dec : - pct.  /   Call +  Put =   J’20 : pct.   /    Call +  Put = Apr. : pct. /
$36: $5.62+$0.59=$6.21: 15.2%/ $5.95+$1.19=$7.14: 17.4% /
$41: $2.71+$2.78=$5.49: 13.4%/ $3.38+$3.75=$7.13:17.4%/ $5.45+$6.23:11.68: 28.5%/
$45: $1.53+$5.62=$7.15: 17.4%/ $2.24+$6.58=$8.82: 21.5% /
Days: 48 days ( /36.3%: 36.9% ) /  76 days ( /45.6%: 38.2%)   / 167 days ( /67.6%: 42.2%) /
===
TNA:    Call +  Put =  Dec : - pct. /   Call +  Put =   J’20 : pct.  /    Call +  Put = Apr. : pct. /
$58: $6.88+$2.44=$9.32: 14.9%/ $7.75+$3.55=11.30: 18.0%/
$63: $3.80+$4.30=$8.10: 12.9%/ $4.70+$5.52=10.22: 16.3%/ $7.46+$8.48=15.94: 25.4%/
$67: $2.06+$6.60=$8.66: 13.8%/ $2.86+$7.68=10.54: 16.8%/
Days: 48 days ( /36.3%: 35.5% ) /  76 days ( /45.6%: 35.8%)   /  167 days ( /67.6%: 37.5%)  /
===

Tza-Tna "straddle"--------> tna$63c:4.70:7.50%+tza$41c:3.38:8.24%=>15.74% /.456= 34.5%pa /jan'20:12.4%= R2.78 vs. 3x gearing

[drbubb]

Gerald Celente - Equities Hit Higher As Economies Go Slower

"If Gold goes below $1450, the next low is $1390. And I believe the bottom is $1390,"

"If the China trade agreement was real, Oil would be skyrocketing.  At 684 : Rig count is the Lowest since Aug,2017"

[drbubb]

"Investors are flush with money... and buying dreams" (not investing in real businesses)

"we need to be smart, & have more togetherness, to invest to get more productivity" (the key to prosperity)

"The system is NOT working efficiently... There will be (more) bad investments, since co's are selling dreams."

Watch CNBC's full interview with Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio

/ 2 /

xx

 

[drbubb]

Philly stock Update

CMCSA vs. PEI, etc... update :

== PEI : update :

[drbubb]

These guys might save Football clubs Millions on transfer fees

MIT made an army of Mini Cheetah robots that backflip and play soccer

/ 2 /

 

[drbubb]

Don Jr's book

Donald Trump Jr.'s Book 'Triggered' Is a Fantastic Declaration of War on Liberalism

 

BY MICHAEL VAN DER GALIEN NOVEMBER 10, 2019

Donald Trump Jr. speaks to media during the annual White House Easter Egg Roll on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington on April 17, 2017. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)

When I purchased Donald Trump Jr.'s new book Triggered: How the Left Thrives on Hate and Wants to Silence Us, I wasn't really sure what to expect. Sure, I follow the first son on Twitter and, yes, I enjoy his appearances on talk shows, but still, a book is something completely different. The man has little to no experience in politics aside from being involved in his father's presidential campaign, and although he's clearly sure about where he stands on the issues, I didn't know how deep those beliefs went or how much he truly believed in them.

Well, if you want to test a person's beliefs, make him write a book. It's hard if not impossible to fake it for 300 pages or so. Or, for that matter, for 10 hours in an audiobook.

I wasn't disappointed. In fact, now that I've listened to it completely, it's not only crystal clear to me that Don Jr. knows that of which he speaks/writes, but also that he'll be a political force to be reckoned with for years if not decades to come.

/ 2 /

Life, Liberty & Levin 11/10/19 FULL - interview with Donald Trump Jr

 

[hector]

3 hours ago, drbubb said:

These guys might save Football clubs Millions on transfer fees

MIT made an army of Mini Cheetah robots that backflip and play soccer

 

Love the robo dogs but I didn't see any football kicking by them so misleading headline!

[drbubb]

$100 Billion Fund Manager Is Debunking Stock-Bubble Theories

Negative interest rates are unnaturally propping up the stock market and at some point the whole edifice will collapse. It’s an oft-repeated theory, but history suggests it might be wrong.

According to Kasper Lorenzen, the chief investment officer of pension fund PFA in Denmark, we’re essentially living through the negative supply shock that came with the oil crises of the 1970s, but in reverse. Thanks to cheaper imports and better technology, the supply shock is now positive and it’s going to continue shaping monetary policy far into the future, the theory goes.

“This is just a massive, positive supply shock, similar, though with a reverse sign, to the negative supply shock we saw in the 1970s,” he said in an interview.

“So the background I have in my head is that the positive supply shock has more to go,” Lorenzen said. “We’re not going to see inflation coming through.”

If you accept that premise, then equities start to look reasonably priced, he said. “Equities aren’t cheap, outright, but if you look at equities and equity valuations, relative to the interest rates, maybe it’s not too bad.”

Negative Rates

There’s growing opposition to negative rates. In the U.S., Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan says it’s unhealthy that around 23% of global debt is now negative. Sweden’s Riksbank is trying to move away from them, while the governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, says they’re not an option.

No other country has lived with negative rates as long as Denmark, which is in its eighth year of the regime. One of the country’s biggest banks predicts rates won’t be positive again for another eight years.

PFA, which is based in Copenhagen, booked record gains in the first nine months, with its equities portfolio returning 19%. And though the temptation is to ask how much longer such returns can last, Lorenzen says we may be underestimating the momentum of the current cycle.

> more: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-11/a-100-billion-fund-manager-is-debunking-stock-bubble-theories

[drbubb]

ROLLOVER Narrative is still ALIVE - a Right Shoulder (RS) in place now?

Here's why I am sticking to the Rollover narrative - on these property-related stocks

ALI vs. RLC, smph, MEG, AGI (weakest) ... update : 10d : / ALI:

The bigger picture, as shown on page 1:

BTW, if property stocks did peak in July 2019, then there is likely to be a very obvious downturn in the physical property market within 6-12 months after that peak, if the usual historical pattern holds.  I have watched this pattern unfold in: the UK, the US, and in HK.

( It does take some confidence in technical work, to come out at key test moments and repeat the reasons why I stick to my guns,  I have done this more than once. I can be wrong, and with these very precise charts, I will probably know pretty quickly, if I have it wrong,  Yet, so far so good. haha. I actually don't mind when people disagree with me.  Because I will change my view pretty quickly, if the evidence comes in.. showing my narrative is no longer valid.  I think it is a bit like a horse race.  There may be a horse out there with my colors on it, one that I supported.  But if another narrative gets stronger, I am willing to change my bet. haha )

[drbubb]

GOLD vs Bonds, including TIPS (inflation protected bonds)

Made valuable discovery today, on what drives Gold proce

GLD ($125.15) versus TLT ($125.49) from 2.Jan.2018 : fr. 5.Jul.19 / GLD:$137.06 / TLT:$135.00= r-101.5%

fr. 5.Jul.19 / GLD ($132.14) vs TLT ($132.44) from 5.Jul.19 start / GLD:$137.06 / TLT:$135.00= r-101.5%

The SWINGS IN GOLD, & cyclical Turns become even more obvious, when you also monitor TIPS prices

TIPS (inflation protected securities) vs Bonds (TLT) & Gold (GLD) ... 5yr :  mirror : fr. X-2014 : 1yr:

==

[drbubb]

gold

3 years