frizzers Posted March 26, 2008 Report Share Posted March 26, 2008 Well, not 100% Guaranteed, but nevertheless 'Zapata' George says there's a supply shortage coming. http://commoditywatch.podbean.com/2008/03/...than-you-think/ Dr Bubb features too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wren Posted March 26, 2008 Report Share Posted March 26, 2008 In the developed countries at least, it seems that a higher oil price is needed to get significant demand destruction. A recent survey of the public in Finland found that most people would need petrol (gasoline) prices to be at least 60 eurocents higher per litre before they would begin to reduce usage. A litre of 95-octane is about €1.42 at the moment and a lot of that price is taxes. A consequence may be that inadequate demand destruction leads to shortages as Zapata George is saying. He's always very entertaining to listen to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
enrieb Posted March 26, 2008 Report Share Posted March 26, 2008 Very interesting, I remember seeing the news story about Cheney visiting the Saudis over the oil price, the Saudis said that they would do what they could to ensure stable oil production, but nothing about raising production. From what I remember on FSN over the past few years Zapata's oil price predictions have been pretty accurate. Is $160-220 a price that we could see IF demand does outstrip supply? I would be interested to hear other thoughts on a what a supply shortage could do to the oil price over the short term. Thanks Frizzers for brining us that interview at short notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwizzie Posted March 26, 2008 Report Share Posted March 26, 2008 I think you will be able to guage how many people listen to cwr by the ammount of people filling their cars over the next couple of days frizzers. As Zapata said you have great influence! see ya on Channel 4 news soon!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted March 27, 2008 Report Share Posted March 27, 2008 This is the correct link: $160 Oil … Sooner Than You Think http://commoditywatch.podbean.com/2008/03/...than-you-think/ Thanks Frizzers, I'm going to fill up the bicycle now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted March 27, 2008 Report Share Posted March 27, 2008 Frizzers, you made it to the top of Dollar Collapse http://www.dollarcollapse.com/ That'll get you a few listeners ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frizzers Posted March 27, 2008 Author Report Share Posted March 27, 2008 Great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwizzie Posted March 27, 2008 Report Share Posted March 27, 2008 yea...what could a country blame an oil supply shortage on? an explosion on a pipeline perhaps? did someone whisper conspiracy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted March 27, 2008 Report Share Posted March 27, 2008 Zapata is pushing it a bit this time, $160 - $220? He also thinks that stock markets are oversold and due a bounce from here. Now, no way can I see the US markets going up at all if oil hits $160. More likely the Dow and S&P would have sharp corrections on the downside at any sudden surge in the price of oil. I can see $120 in the short term, especially if a few more pipelines are taken out in the middle east, but not $160, not in the short term anyway. If it does happen, watch out world stock markets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wren Posted March 27, 2008 Report Share Posted March 27, 2008 Russian Oil Output May Fall for First Time in Decade in 2008 By Greg Walters March 27 (Bloomberg) -- Russian oil output may fall this year for the first time in a decade as the world's second-biggest supplier struggles with rising costs and harder-to-reach fields, Natural Resources Minister Yuri Trutnev said. ``Two years ago, we said the growth rate was falling, and we said this was bad for Russia, remember?'' Trutnev said in televised remarks after a government meeting in Moscow today. ``Now we're saying the production rate is falling this year. This is not a bogeyman, unfortunately, this is real,'' Trutnev said, without giving a specific forecast. Link: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...mp;refer=energy $160 does sound pretty amazing. But credible if a genuine supply shortage occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbs7 Posted March 28, 2008 Report Share Posted March 28, 2008 Well, not 100% Guaranteed, but nevertheless 'Zapata' George says there's a supply shortage coming. http://commoditywatch.podbean.com/2008/03/...than-you-think/ Dr Bubb features too Good interview Frizzers. Although Zapata George's prediction seems extreme I've found when I've listened to him previously that he doesn't do hype for the sake of it. He looks at the fundamentals and I like his idea that fundamentals will always prevail ultimately. I use this idea to keep me strong when investing and watching sharps corrections such as the recent one in gold and silver. If I remember rightly he called the bottom of the drop in crude from $80 last year the same week on Jim Puplava's show. I think his prediction should be given credibility although whether it plays is yet to be seen. We seem to be experiencing squeezes in many commoditities currently - e.g. silver, wheat, corn. Something I've noticed round where I live (Cambridge) is that around Xmas and the New Year lots of petrol stations kept having cones lined up outside stopping cars coming in. One evening I needed to fill up my car and the only station that didn't have any cones was turning everyone away. At the time I did think perhaps we were starting to see the pressure on supply. Of course this is only anecdotal and I've not seen it again for a while. Has anyone else noticed problems like this in their area? Jim Puplava has also predicted a time when there will be shortages and people won't be worrying about the price, rather whether they can get it at all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gatesy Posted March 29, 2008 Report Share Posted March 29, 2008 Yep, ZG has now repeated his views on FS newshour http://feeds.feedburner.com/fsn and he specifically said "next week". Now, is this a real "next week" or a metaphysical "next week"? To be fair he did mention something about the next "90 days" as well. I'd love to believe it was real and have the balls to take a MASSIVE position on it and clean up.... hmmmmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gatesy Posted March 31, 2008 Report Share Posted March 31, 2008 So oils dropped to $102.5. Is now the time to get in for the big up move? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted March 31, 2008 Report Share Posted March 31, 2008 So oils dropped to $102.5. Is now the time to get in for the big up move? Well, if it is going to happen this week then it's a bargain, or is it a 90 day prediction? You do wonder if ZG will look silly after this one, but he has made some decent calls in the past. However, a $60 move in oil in such a short time period would indicate serious problems which even the mainstream media would have difficulty ignoring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gatesy Posted April 1, 2008 Report Share Posted April 1, 2008 Going in the wrong direction at the moment.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
narco Posted April 1, 2008 Report Share Posted April 1, 2008 Well, if it is going to happen this week then it's a bargain, or is it a 90 day prediction? You do wonder if ZG will look silly after this one, but he has made some decent calls in the past. However, a $60 move in oil in such a short time period would indicate serious problems which even the mainstream media would have difficulty ignoring. He mentioned within 90 days on financialsense last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gatesy Posted April 2, 2008 Report Share Posted April 2, 2008 Wow, look at her go ! Some news coming out? $104 and rising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gatesy Posted April 4, 2008 Report Share Posted April 4, 2008 Quick thought on oil: Isn't it reasonable to think that prospects over the next 3 to 6 months could see oil developing somewhat of a 'win/win' situation for itself? ie. recently (last 2 weeks) equity markets in a minor rally, positive sentiment being gushed at every opportunity by those with the 'traditional' equity interests to protect, and much of the mainstream media adding support to the 'worst is over' camp. If this bear market rally continues for a few months then we'd expect oil to do well wouldn't we? I mean no recession, no economic woes means no drop in demand, right? Alternatively, the equity markets come to their senses, equities head for a new bottom and everything is all doom and gloom again, you never know there could even be a bank or two with a few $bn worth of margin calls again. We'd still expect oil to rise wouldn't we (along with gold and silver), as cash rushes for the exits and the (already overused) 'safe havens'? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gatesy Posted April 4, 2008 Report Share Posted April 4, 2008 Auote from Thomson Financial "According to data released Wednesday by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, demand for crude oil products fell an annual 1.3 percent over the last four weeks, while crude stocks surged 7.4 million barrels last week. On the other hand, however, the data also showed gasoline stocks declined by a much larger than expected 4.5 million barrels last week. Traders chose to focus on this figure rather than on falling demand or rising crude stocks. As a result, oil prices rose sharply on Wednesday, but have since retraced some of those gains. "The truth is that demand for oil overall is weakening. Yet whether or not demand matters right now is still the debate," noted Alaron Trading trader Phil Flynn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frizzers Posted April 5, 2008 Author Report Share Posted April 5, 2008 Don't agree re demand. See this: http://www.moneyweek.com/file/44753/could-...-next-week.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gatesy Posted April 5, 2008 Report Share Posted April 5, 2008 Certainly don't disagree with you CC (Friz ). I was posting really to demonstrate some growing publicity around the supply shortages and from that, possible support for ZG's comments. I agree that the demand argument is often touted rather lazily though. Strange how US gov't backed statistical releases might add support to a price reduction argument... Can't remember the stats but Jim Puplava has often talked about the proportion of oil demand growth driven by the US being very small over the last 10 years; in a similar vain, any US slowdown would thus conversely have very little effect on reducing global demand growth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted April 7, 2008 Report Share Posted April 7, 2008 Getting closer to $110, but ZG has had his week. On to 90 days then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HollandPark Posted April 8, 2008 Report Share Posted April 8, 2008 Jim Rogers "Expects Oil to hit $180 per barrel" over the course of its bull run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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