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The Cleveland thread - US Urban decline and revival


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The Cleveland thread - US Urban decline and revival

Will Cleveland & Ohio bounceback? Can money be made?

======================================

 

The Great Lakes - Another advantage shared with Detroit and Chicago.

It is not only the world's largest fresh water resource (I believe), but it is also liked to the global

markets by water through the St.Lawrence seaway- a huge advantage for exports traveling by sea.

 

Foreclosed properties held by banks - plenty around the Great Lakes

P1-AK954A_REOma_20080324204528.gif

- note: That red spot below the D in "Detroit" is Cleveland.

 

//This is to collect some posts about Cleveland from elsewhere, and provide a platform for researching

a US city where property is already cheap, and if it is restructured properly, may provide some good

future investment opportunities.//

 

Big Picture, the city can be rebuilt around its rail links, its downtown, its universities, and its renewed

ability to compete in a global market as the US dollar falls - That's my thesis, but is it correct?

 

Eventually, this thread may be moved to the Global Property section, after a period of seasoning.)

 

clevakrdh2.jpg

 

University Circle - an interesting mixed use concept in Cleveland

 

Mixed Use Demand Generation

"Urban mixed-use developments often revolve around a nonretail demand generator such as a city hall, regional library or cultural arts center," says Fairmount principal Randy Ruttenberg. "We believe a college or university can be a quintessential example of a nonretail demand generator in that it attracts students, faculty, administrative staff and their families."

 

"Our goal is to create pedestrian-oriented places where students and faculty can join with the community to live, dine, and shop." (... why not "work" also??)

 

University Circle College Town, Cleveland, Ohio

 

Fairmount Properties, in partnership with University Circle Incorporated and Case Western Reserve University, led the charge in the renovation and re-merchandising of the University East building, Phase I of a mixed-use retail, residential and institutional-based College Town in the heart of University Circle's internationally-known culture center. Phase I construction, completed in the spring of 2004, added a number of new restaurants and specialty tenants along with outdoor seating, dining and recreation space. Phase II of College Town will be anchored by a Barnes and Noble College Bookstore as well as several local restaurants. This district caters to a significant student and daytime population in excess of 70,000 people.

 

/see: http://www.fairmountproperties.com/univers...evelopments.htm

/and: http://www.fairmountproperties.com/documen...iness-daily.pdf

 

College Reits: http://www.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=16826425

== == ==

 

nice neighborhoods around cleveland (yet another)

------------------------------------------------------------

 

Q:

Are there any nice neighborhoods around Cleveland (w/in a short drive of Case UH/Cleveland Clinic) where I can just go outside and take a walk down to restaurants/drug stores/video shops/cafes? I am from the Cambridge, MA area around Harvard Square (if that helps). I am also familiar w/ and like the Mt. Washington area around Baltimore and the Cleveland Park area in Washington, DC.

 

A:

YES!!

 

Little Italy, Cedar-Fairmount, Cedar-Lee, Coventry and Shaker square are with in a short bus or car ride of Uiversity Circle and its institutions/Attractions. There are retail stores, Cafes, drug stores, restaurants, Inde Movies theatres(Cedar-Lee), mainstream theatres (Shaker Square). Shaker Square is also connected by rail to Downtown, The airport and University Circle (Though not directly).

 

Here's a map of these areas I mentioned:

cleshopzo8.png

(Notice the Rail link next to Little Italy)

 

Little Italy is the Closest to University Circle though and you would need to catch the bus/train/drive to reach the others. Also (though about 3 -4 miles away is Cedar Center and University Square, which has a whole foods, Macy's, target, CVS, Walgreens and other shops cafes and restaurants.

 

For Renting nearby...

The area you want to look at is University Heights. Within just a few blocks are tons of two family houses and apartments. From what I've seen rents start at about $600, but go up from there. Try searching here http://www.cleveland.com/rentals/apts/

 

/see: http://www.city-data.com/forum/cleveland/6...et-another.html

 

From the Case-Schiller thread:

mo.: + CSXR. / +S20R. / Miami , S.Fran. -NYC-, Boston, Chicago, Denver, Detroit, Cleve.

jun. : 217.33 / 183.89 / 264.89, 209.48, 209.34, 171.29, 165.94, 138.09, 110.70, 118.33

. .

sep. : 212.70 / 195.68 / 249.61, 206.46, 206.30, 170.73, 164.42, 138.43, 110.83, 117.35

oct. : 209.76 / 192.98 / 244.35, 202.03, 205.58, 169.33, 163.12, 136.08, 108.15, 115.93

nov : 205.31 / 188.98 / 237.99, 195.49, 204.50, 167.39, 161.61, 133.36, 105.24, 113.29

dec : 200.77 / 185.03 / 231.71, 189.23, 202.32, 164.58, 160.03, 130.98, 103.30, 112.07

J.08: 196.17 / 180.75 / 225.40, 183.81, 200.49, 162.58, 156.42, 128.98, 100.17, 108.49

feb : 190.58 / 175.94 / 218.74, 174.54, 198.46, 160.31, 153.33, 127.50 , 97.61, 106.82

 

= = = = =

LINKS:

CraigsList, Cleveland : http://cleveland.craigslist.org/rfs/

 

Cleveland Hotels ..... : http://www.tripadvisor.com/SmartDeals-g502...otel-Deals.html

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Want property?

user73674_1_l.jpg

Here's Svetlana, a Cleveland-based realtor, with her own blog:

http://activerain.com/blogs/realtorsvetlana

 

Here's a comment from her website:

" Local-n-Global Realtors® will offer you realistic professional opinion on market condition and on making your house more competitive on today's market. Catching with the right pricing trends and principles is more complicated today than ever. Cuyahoga County has one of the highest foreclosure rates in the nation. All counties in and around Greater Cleveland except Summit and Ashtabula, have been considered by lenders as declining areas. According to new Fannie May rules, mortgage financing terms will be less favorable for borrowers in these declining areas..." »continue...

 

/website: http://local-n-global.com/

 

She didn't sound highly-analytical*, at first glance. If I was looking more seriously, I try to

find someone a bit more like-minded - ie. switched on to the dangers of suburban living.

(Having said that, I do like the fact that she has an international background & focus.

The amount of content, and the testimonials there, suggest that she is hard-working, and

client-focused. Maybe I should test her, by sending her an email. ??)

 

Does exploring this type of opportunity appeal to people? If so, and others will participate,

I may start a thread, and see what experience we can gain from it.

 

Cleveland may be a viable target, but personally, I woul rather target someplace like Ann Arbor, Michigan

or maybe somewhere in Florida or a low-tax state. I want a place that I would really consider to live in.

 

Any other suggestions for a location for such an exercise?

 

== == ==

 

*Here's her comment on Mayfield Heights, a community she favors:

 

"My favorite Mayfield Heights. Great community, great schools, safe and beautiful neighborhoods, affordable and decent housing market. And - like almost everywhere in Greater Cleveland, we see two parallel real estate worlds here: one belongs to sellers, another one belongs to buyers. From my own and my agents' experience, difference in prices which sellers expect to receive and buyers are ready to pay is more than 25 %.

 

Historic sales data supports neither sellers' expectations nor buyers' hope. We currently have 171 active listings for sale in Mayfield Heights with average asking price of $181,315. Sellers historically receive 95-96 % of asking price for their homes here in Mayfield Heights. So, sellers expect to close with average price of about $172,250 which is much higher than 2007 average price of $153,387 and higher than the record high average price of 2006 - $166,455. The sellers' optimism probably roots in a fact that mortgage crisis almost did not hurt Mayfield Heights. We had just few foreclosures in the area, mostly in the low-end price range. However, amount of sales is a little bit lower than in the record 2006 but still very high. Average price is also lower than in 2006 but is on the very decent level.

 

Here is the graph of 10 years sales data for Mayfield Heights, OH. Statistics provided by our regional MLS

ar120026972042575.png

 

This graphics remind that the market is pretty steady in Mayfield Heights. Buyers in our community do not depend on fancy "creative" financing which brought a lot of neighborhoods to a deep crisis. Honestly, today we have much more real good buyers with good savings, very high credit score and strong desire to live in Mayfield Heights - if it is not overpriced. There is no base for unreasonable expectations. I hope that this graphics will help two worlds - pre-cautious world of home buyers and anxious but stubborn world of home sellers in Mayfield Heights, OH finally meet in the point where they belong to each other. Let's be reasonable! Mayfield Heights is a very good place to buy the houses and enjoy live. Be reasonable and good luck to all of us!

 

City Of Mayfield Heights website: http://www.mayfieldheights.org/

 

aaa3vy3.jpg

 

QUESTION: What are Mayfield's transport links?

Are Mayfield residents totally dependent on their cars??

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CLEVELAND — Nottingham Spirk, an industrial design firm, was founded in 1972 by two recent graduates of the Cleveland Institute of Art, in an area known as University Circle. The young designers set up shop just off campus and proceeded to build a multimillion-dollar company.

 

600_cleveland.jpg

 

David Maxwell for The New York Times

 

The Peter B. Lewis building on the campus of Case Western Reserve University.

The area near the school is being developed. :: More Photos »

 

Having outgrown their old space but reluctant to leave the area, the two men, John Nottingham and John Spirk, bought a historic church and invested $10 million to convert it into both an industrial design studio and a prototype manufacturing center. They moved in last year, keeping 70 high-wage, high-skill jobs in the area.

 

“Our being here is a microcosm of what could and should happen in Cleveland,” Mr. Nottingham said. “The University Circle area is the single hottest square mile in Ohio in terms of real development activity.”

 

According to research by the Brookings Institution, the potential for high-wage job growth is less likely to be found in traditional downtowns than in districts like University Circle, areas referred to as “eds and meds” for their typical concentration of educational and medical institutions.

 

“What’s been happening, through partnerships, eds and meds institutions are becoming actively involved in revitalization efforts,” said Jennifer S. Vey, senior research associate at Brookings, a policy research organization in Washington. “While they’ve existed in these places for a long time, now they’re expanding physically, developing real estate and forming partnerships to reconnect to surrounding neighborhoods that they might have turned their backs on.”

 

Cleveland’s eds and meds district, four miles east of downtown, is on the verge of a major transformation as a result of $2 billion worth of infrastructure investment, with another billion dollars worth in the planning phase. Severance Hall, where the Cleveland Orchestra performs, has already been renovated, as well as the Cleveland Botanical Garden, and a new housing district has been developed by Case Western Reserve University.

 

Other projects under way include a new heart center at the Cleveland Clinic, an expansion of the Cleveland Museum of Art by the architect Raphael Viñoly, a new wing at the Stokes Veteran’s Administration Medical Center, a new cancer center at University Hospitals Health System, and a newly integrated arts and sciences high school campus for the Cleveland Public Schools. A research park called the Quad by Case Western Reserve University is in the planning phase, as well as a renovation of the Cleveland Museum of Natural History, and others, all in anticipation of 10,000 new jobs over the next 10 years.

 

Some officials say all of this activity provides an opportunity to begin turning around a city that was identified by the Census Bureau this year as the poorest big city in America for the second time in the last three years.

 

cleveland_4331.jpg

 

“Right now, University Circle is a patchwork of hospitals, universities and cultural institutions, and some beautiful but underutilized public space,” said Chris Ronayne, president of University Circle Incorporated, a business improvement district founded in 1957. “What it could be is a world-class destination with its own brand identity. Getting all of these institutions to work together toward a common goal, and leveraging their considerable resources, is the only way that is going to happen.”

 

University Circle institutions have not always collaborated well, according to people who have been trying for years to coordinate development plans. But that has begun to change.

. . .

The Cleveland Foundation put up $1 million of its own money and challenged University Circle’s major institutions to help pay for infrastructure improvements, like rebuilding rundown train stations and reconfiguring what is known as “suicide circle.” This dangerous convergence of streets is the gateway to the 100-year-old Rockefeller Park, but it is also the site of an average of 100 auto accidents every year. Efforts to fix the infrastructure problems are being undertaken not by the city, but by the foundation and its partners in the University Circle neighborhood

 

/see: http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/08/realesta...8cleveland.html

 

== ==

Cleveland's 7 Wonders : http://www.urban-photos.com/gallery/albums...veland_4331.jpg

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Pluto and Son to visit Cleveland.

 

I will be in Cleveland, (University Circle) this weekend. My son is checking out a college there. I will be going on a field trip looking at property also.

 

Interesting.

Your thoughts and reactions to what you see would be appreciated.

I shall start a new thread on Cleveland. (this one!) Please post HERE

 

== ==

 

Now that I have transferred the basic content here,

I will be shortening some of the long posts, and providing links back to this thread.

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Pluto and Son to visit Cleveland.

 

 

 

Interesting.

Your thoughts and reactions to what you see would be appreciated.

I shall start a new thread on Cleveland. (this one!) Please post HERE

 

== ==

 

Now that I have transferred the basic content here,

I will be shortening some of the long posts, and providing links back to this thread.

 

Yep looking forward to my trip.

 

Here is one house just a stones throw away from the Hospitals, Universities, and the trendy Little Italy and Coventry.

 

http://cleveland.craigslist.org/rfs/610224304.html

 

Lots of nice converted Condos with 12ft ceilings as well...

 

Cleveland gets a bum rap because it is between Buffalo and Detroit, but having worked in all three cities I much prefer Cleveland.

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OHIO Cities within the 100 "most livable" in the US...

(anything that can be learned from this, apart from the success of Cincinatti)

 

62 Blue Ash

 

62_blue_ash.jpg

 

Population: 11,948

Pro: Tax credits for businesses

Con: Relatively high cost of living

While Blue Ash maintains a diminutive population, the city is second only to Cincinnati as the largest employer in the region - its population more than quadruples during the workday. Why? Blue Ash, which essentially sits inside Cincinnati, is home to a number of corporate satellite locations, including offices for Proctor & Gamble, Time Warner, and CitiGroup's IT division. Consequently, the small, intensely planned community (Blue Ash's land use is exactly 35% residential and 35% business; the rest is for public or other use) presents an elite image that segregates it from the greater metropolitan area, according to local business owners. Startups can benefit from programs such as Ohio's Job Creation Tax Credit, which goes to companies that create 25 new full-time jobs paying at least 150% of the minimum wage.

 

Thanks to the community's careful design, Blue Ash boasts an excellent infrastructure - the schools are top-notch, the streets are safe, and the citizens enjoy a variety of community services. While Blue Ash has easy transportation access to Cincinnati, locals can golf on the city's own course and enjoy concerts at the Towne Square. -Mina Kimes

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Here is one house just a stones throw away from the Hospitals, Universities, and the trendy Little Italy and Coventry.

http://cleveland.craigslist.org/rfs/610224304.html

 

Lots of nice converted Condos with 12ft ceilings as well...

Cleveland gets a bum rap because it is between Buffalo and Detroit, but having worked in all three cities I much prefer Cleveland.

 

Have you considered contacting Svetlana, and visiting Mayfield?

 

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Who is Svetlana?

See post #2, above

 

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See post #2, above

 

Right now I am using Craigslist for property listings - they have new ones updated daily. The Cleveland Clinics are some of the best hospitals in the world, there is even a hotel that caters mainly to Arabs right across the street from the Main Clinic. With the boom in baby boomers I foresee the east side of cleveland to be a little goldmine for the future. Right now Cleveland is in all the world wide press as the sub-prime capital of the world - so naturally all this negativity has sparked my attention. Another feature of Cleveland - it is sitting right on one of the world's largest natural supply of drinking water. Also, there are some municipalities that will pay you to hunt deer. So you have a good supply of food and water.

 

http://cleveland.craigslist.org/rfs/

 

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates, Jan. 22 /PRNewswire/ -- Cleveland Clinic Abu

Dhabi, Booth # 2C10 -- Cleveland Clinic, one of the world's leading healthcare

institutions and the number one heart center in the United States is a Gold

Sponsor of the Arab Health Congress 2008 -- the region's leading medical

event. The Gold Sponsorship is a demonstration of the Clinic's commitment to

the Middle East region and in offering world-leading healthcare expertise for

the benefit of patients throughout the Gulf.

 

Cleveland Clinic has a long history of treating patients from the Middle

East. The Clinic's participation in the Arab Health Congress is in recognition

of the increasing demands for healthcare services in the region. Cleveland

Clinic has its own International Center to help facilitate the journey for

international patients who need to travel to Cleveland Clinic for care. The

International Center helps to coordinate travel arrangements, lodging and

medical appointments for patients and physicians from around the world, and

services for patients such as interpreters for health care appointments.

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/pressReleas...008+PRN20080122

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Another feature of Cleveland - it is sitting right on one of the worlds largest natural supply of drinking water. Also, there are some municipalities that will pay you to hunt deer. So you have a good supply of food and water.

 

The Great Lakes - Another advantage shared with Detroit and Chicago.\

It is not only the world's largest fresh water resource (I believe), but it is also liked to the global

markets by water through the St.Lawrence seaway- a huge advantage for exports traveling by sea.

 

On Svetlana, i might email her, and tell her about thsi thread, to see if she is willing to

help GEI-ers keep an eye on opportunties in Mayfield and Cleveland.

It may be useful for this site to cultivate local contacts like that

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The Great Lakes - Another advantage shared with Detroit and Chicago.

 

On Svetlana, i might email her, and tell her about thsi thread, to see if she is willing to

help GEI-ers keep an eye on opportunties in Mayfield and Cleveland.

It may be useful for this site to cultivate local contacts like that

 

Yes, although Chicago is pretty pricey, and Detroit really doesn't have a catalyst for the future, like Cleveland does with the medical industry. Having said that, if there is to be any resurgence in manufacturing in the USA, then Michigan will be in an ideal position. Some of the best engineering colleges are still in Michigan, and it has all the infrastructure just waiting to be put to good use.

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Yes, although Chicago is pretty pricey, and Detroit really doesn't have a catalyst for the future, like Cleveland does with the medical industry. Having said that, if there is to be any resurgence in manufacturing in the USA, then Michigan will be in an ideal position. Some of the best engineering colleges are still in Michigan, and it has all the infrastructure just waiting to be put to good use.

 

Does Cleveland have an emerging biotech industry?

 

On Detroit, I do think a resurgence can be triggered by a re-industrialisation of America,

with that industry focussed on:

 

+ Restructuring America's suburbs.

+ Rediscovering the export market (overseas), where goes can be delivered by sea at less energy cost

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Does Cleveland have an emerging biotech industry?

 

On Detroit, I do think a resurgence can be triggered by a re-industrialisation of America,

with that industry focussed on:

 

+ Restructuring America's suburbs.

+ Rediscovering the export market (overseas), where goes can be delivered by sea at less energy cost

 

I will have to check, although I do know that the Cleveland Clinic is at the cutting edge with regard to Nano technology:

 

http://www.asminternational.org/mmn/website/

 

The Cleveland Clinic and ASM will offer blended technical programming covering the spectrum of materials-related challenges and opportunities in medicine, from today's materials to the next generation of nanomaterials.

 

http://www.nanoappsummit.com/

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(I plan to send this):

 

Hi Svetlana,

 

I stumbled across your website in doing some research for my website, GlobalEdgeInvestors, which is a chatboard with over 1,000 members.

 

On GEI. we help each other to find investment opportunities, and until now have been very active in the mining and commodities sector. A few of us are looking forward to the day when prices are low enough, would make sense to invest in the USA. Thanks to press reports, talking about foreclosures and so forth, and for other reasons, we have begun to focus on Cleveland, Detroit, and Chicago.

 

I found your website by accident, through a Google search, and I was impressed with your international background (I have been to Russia, and Eastern Europe, and used to live in London before I moved to Hong Kong two years ago.)

 

Would you be interested in helping GEI people to find opportunities in the Cleveland area?

 

I should warn you that I have a personal bias in favor of living areas where it is not necessary to have a car.

 

See my article: http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2008/0107c.html

 

Maybe you can tell me:

+ What are Mayfield's transport links?

+ Are Mayfield residents totally dependent on their cars to get to work in Cleveland?

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Despite never having risen much since 2000, like another Midwest City (Detroit),

Cleveland Real Estate values have fallen sharply in the last 7 months, and it looks like

they may wipe out ALL THE GAINS since 2000 before long.

 

FALLS SINCE JUNE 2007 - various Cities:

 

mo.: +CSXR. / +S20R / Miami , SanFran. -NYC-, Boston, Chicago, Denver Detroit, Cleve.

jun. : 217.33 / 199.43 / 264.89, 209.48, 209.34, 171.29, 165.94, 138.09, 110.70, 118.33

dec : 200.73 / 185.01 / 231.71, 189.23, 202.32, 164.59, 160.03, 130.98, 103.30, 112.07

J.08: 196.06 / 180.65 / 225.40, 183.81, 200.49, 162.59, 156.47, 128.98, 100.17, 108.49

Chg.: - 9.8%/ - 9.4%/ - 14.9%, - 12.3%, -4 .2%, - 5.1%, - 5.7%, - 6.6%, - 9.5%, - 8.3%

 

The biggest monthly falls were in January, so it looks like 2008 may be the worst year yet.

 

CLEVELAND has been added to the Cities tracked on the Schiller index thread:

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=2362

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Bubb, I am having similar thoughts. My wife is US American and all her family lives in the states. Around where they live, the cheapest houses are below $20,000 already. Usually bad neighbourhood and stripped off copper wires, but still. I also agree that the bottom could be a few years away. But I am watching this market. Some of the prices seem already insanely low when compared with similar dumps in the UK. Personally, my strategic planning needs to take into account a possible relocation of my wife and myself, possible relocation of my in laws due to old age. Peak oil needs to be taken into account as well. Property in a medium sized city with agricultur around and a good infrastructure including public transportation could be it.

 

Now let me read the whole thread first. :)

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Yep looking forward to my trip.

 

Here is one house just a stones throw away from the Hospitals, Universities, and the trendy Little Italy and Coventry.

 

http://cleveland.craigslist.org/rfs/610224304.html

 

Lots of nice converted Condos with 12ft ceilings as well...

 

Cleveland gets a bum rap because it is between Buffalo and Detroit, but having worked in all three cities I much prefer Cleveland.

Wow, that looks like a decent house for a very decent price.

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I started a thread a while back on t'other site about Detroit prices with an example or two, but Bardon in this post came up with MANY pitfalls of a purchase like this. Just thought it would be interesting as i think he's had some experience ;)

Thread:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...c=66807&hl=

Bardon's post:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...st&p=943648

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Bubb, I am having similar thoughts. My wife is US American and all her family lives in the states. Around where they live, the cheapest houses are below $20,000 already. Usually bad neighbourhood and stripped off copper wires, but still. I also agree that the bottom could be a few years away.

 

With such low prices, you may want to search for a neighborhood with potential for mass transit connections,

and then buy a larger building, and find someone to look after it.

 

I like Cleveland, because in gthe University Circle area, there is already a ton of money being spent to

improve the neighborhood, in a way taht sounds like it makes good sense. If it works there, then the

success can spread, and really re-make the area, and enhance its value. They key thing, is to try to

find an area that has already "hit bottom" and ahs a catalyst to help it bounceback.

 

Are you willing to tell us what state your wife's family is from?

I think there i sreal potential for starting more threads like this on GEI. I like the long term potential of the

Great Lakes area, because I grew up there, but there may be other areas of high potential that I simply do

not know. (For example, I visited Utah some years ago, and thought it was very undervalued, and that now

has proven to be true.)

 

If you want to find smaller cities with potential for explorations, I would suggest having a look at the

200 Best USA Cities to Live In article. LINK: http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fsb/bestpla...p100/index.html

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I started a thread a while back on t'other site about Detroit prices with an example or two, but Bardon in this post came up with MANY pitfalls of a purchase like this. Just thought it would be interesting as i think he's had some experience ;)

Thread:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...c=66807&hl=

Bardon's post:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...st&p=943648

 

Cleveland thread on HPC: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=72835

 

 

BARDON'S Problem List - in cheap US Real Estate:

 

+ property taxes

+ tenants that dont pay rent all of them and you keep changing them and repairing damage and paying the PM to do this dont even mention the bond

+ city violations they come free with the house

+ at least one sewer back up a year as they back up when it floods

repetitive blockages in sewer until at the end a new one then it starts blocking again

roof repairs every year until you do a new one which is more than the cost of the house

furnace replacements

+ electrical violations and you cant repalce parts because they are that old

= =

 

He's right, of course.

Which is why you need to look carefully before you leap, and have someone who will be willing to

look after the property after you buy. Even better to do it yourself! If that fits in with your life plan.

(There may be some potential of a GEI syndicate buying a place, with a GEI member living on the

property.)

 

I also think you want a catalyst, with someone, or some fund prepared to put some big money into

upgrading the area.

 

Let's keep chatting, and keep looking !!

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Good post. I am very aware of these issues, which is why I would only buy something either close to my family (so they can check on it every now and then).

 

...

Are you willing to tell us what state your wife's family is from?

I think there i sreal potential for starting more threads like this on GEI. I like the long term potential of the

Great Lakes area, because I grew up there, but there may be other areas of high potential that I simply do

not know. (For example, I visited Utah some years ago, and thought it was very undervalued, and that now

has proven to be true.)

...

Most of the family is from Indiana. I don't know much about the local economy. Lots of corn, obviously, and pharmaceutics in Indianapolis. Gary in the North is just scary. Only ever drove by on the way to Chicago.

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Good post. I am very aware of these issues, which is why I would only buy something either close to my family (so they can check on it every now and then).

Most of the family is from Indiana. I don't know much about the local economy. Lots of corn, obviously, and pharmaceutics in Indianapolis. Gary in the North is just scary. Only ever drove by on the way to Chicago.

 

Historical Entry - The Rust Belt to Richest part of Norh America // DRAFT of possible article being prepared

 

rustbelt.jpg

 

Historians with a sense of irony find it amusing that the Great Lakes area was once known as America's "Rust Belt". Of course, there were once was similarities between the Dust Bowl poverty of the depression thirties, and the state that the Great Lakes area found itself in about 2010. America's big debt fueled consumption binge of the turn of the Millennium had not been good for jobs in the Midwestern states. Why? In the final years of the twentieth century, the US had decided to stop living off its own productive efforts, and many of its factories were closed, and jobs were lost.

 

Under the disastrous Bush II administration ("the Bad Bush regime") America switched its focus away from production to mass consumption and foreign military adventures. It was able to do this, because its military power had left many other countries with misplaced confidence in the US dollar, and for a few short years of the Bad Bush regime, it seemed that Americas could police the world, and buy everything they wanted from foreign countries, without exporting goods in return.

 

US Dollar chart

thumb-usd_03.png

Strength before weakness - a solid rally from 1995 to 2002

 

Strong global demand for dollar meant the US merely needed to print dollars and export those in return for imports of oil from the middle east, consumer goods from China, etc. For many years, foreign countries happily sold their goods to the US, and kept many of the dollars they held in returm. They did this because they had confidence in the dollar. Countries like China and Japan wanted to keep their currencies from appreciating too fast. So rather than selling the dollars to buy commodities, as they eventually did do, they recirculated the money back to the US, and intio the hands of their customers. By holding dollars, they allowed Americans to experience low interest rates, and grow a pousing bubble.

 

They held them in the form of Treasury bonds, and obligations of "government supported entities" like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Before the infamous "sub-prime crisis" broke, some foreign banks even bought toxic mortgage-backed securities, believing that their misleading triple-A credit ratings assured that the bonds would remain liquid, and free from default. Meantime, the productive industrial parts of America suffered mightily from an overvalued dollar. Companies moved their factories abroad, to benefit from the cheaper labor. And America turned its efforts to feeding its binging consumers. For a few years, retail enterprise, and mortgage originators boomed, while the American factories were shutdown.

 

The US also had the misfortune of having one of its worst-ever Central bank heads, Alan Greenspan. Whenever the US faced a possible financial crisis, Greenspan lowered rates, and issued huge amounts of liquidity. His reaction to 9/11, the first terrorist attack on US soil, was to lower intererst rates to an unprecedented 1.25%, to stop a recession before it happened. During those easy times of low interest rates, banks forgot their risk limits, Wall Street got creative, and pumped out massive loans secured by property.

 

With all the cheap money, real estate prices rose and rose, but not so much in the Rust Belt. By the peak in June 2006, the average property in the Case-Schiller index had risen by 126.3% from its January 2000 value. But in hot cities like Miami and San Diego, prices rose by 178.7% and 150.3% of 2000 values. In Detroit and Cleveland, the peak prices were only 27.1% and 23.5% higher than January 2000.

 

Scarce Fresh water

Less than 2.5% of the water on our planet is fresh water. And a huge amount of the earth's fresh water endowment is still locked up in the polar ice caps. Sadly, the polar ice caps are shrinking, thanks to global warming, and the fresh water stored there is being lost into the oceans, dilluted away as seawater. At the turn of the millennium, 68% of the Earth's fresh water was in Antarctica. It is less than that now, but still estimated to be more than half. After the polar ice caps, the biggest fresh water resource on the globe, resides in the Great Lakes. And that has been the source of the increasing wealth of the US midwest. While the rest of the world experiences droughts, and sees its water aquifers depleted, the Midwest enjoys a huge water endowment. It represents 95% of the fresh water in the US.

 

Protecting the Midwest's water endowment through the

Leo Di Capria's narration : Water Planet

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Another comment on Rust belt cities - from City-Data Forum

==========================

 

"Most of the rust-belt cities were great in their day...great infrastructure, rapid transit, parks, libraries, legendary sports rivalries, and such. The powers that be just wrote them all off starting in the 70's. Steel, cars, manufacturing in general, was outsourced, and, except for Chicago, and a few other mid-sized cities, they essentially died. The worst would be Buffalo, Detroit, Cleveland, Youngstown, Pitt, and Rochester-Syracuse. Those cities were just left for dead.

 

ClevelandRegionPhoto.jpg

( Downtown Cleveland )

 

The only bright spots, if you want to call it that, would be Indy, Chicago, some of Milwaukee, Des Moines, Madison, some of Cinncinnati, and Ann Arbor.

 

The reason Texas is thriving is its corporate tax structure, and even more so, its abject lack of unions. Its location next to Mexico also gives it a practically infinite supply of cheap labor as well. I still think someone in the midwest, including Cleveland, would be better off staying if they have a well-paying job, especially a union-based one. The main reason Austin is an entrepreneurial mecca is that there is an almost abject lack of unions, so people HAVE to work for themselves. LOL. It's almost funny, but its the God's truth! Those workers striking at GM and Chrysler, though we laugh, are all making a living wage with full benefits. I'm not sure what people expect that come here from Union-based cities, but, trust me, they make a virtue out of entrepreneurialism when its just a lack of living wage corporate union jobs that creates that scenario in the first place, along with the low corporate taxes. And, yeah, Cleveland still has its charms, particularly Shaker Heights and some of the revitalized city areas."

 

/see: http://www.city-data.com/forum/austin/1725...-jobs-move.html

 

== ==

 

It isnt the low-taxes, or the absence of unions, or the proximity to Mexico, that powers Texas. It's the oil.

And that will run out someday. Maybe by then, the ownership of a massive fresh water resource will matter alot more.

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(I plan to send this):

 

Hi Svetlana,

 

I stumbled across your website in doing some research for my website, GlobalEdgeInvestors, which is a chatboard with over 1,000 members.

 

On GEI. we help each other to find investment opportunities, and until now have been very active in the mining and commodities sector. A few of us are looking forward to the day when prices are low enough, would make sense to invest in the USA. Thanks to press reports, talking about foreclosures and so forth, and for other reasons, we have begun to focus on Cleveland, Detroit, and Chicago.

 

I found your website by accident, through a Google search, and I was impressed with your international background (I have been to Russia, and Eastern Europe, and used to live in London before I moved to Hong Kong two years ago.)

 

Would you be interested in helping GEI people to find opportunities in the Cleveland area?

 

I should warn you that I have a personal bias in favor of living areas where it is not necessary to have a car.

 

See my article: http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2008/0107c.html

 

Maybe you can tell me:

+ What are Mayfield's transport links?

+ Are Mayfield residents totally dependent on their cars to get to work in Cleveland?

 

Hi Michael,

 

I do appreciate your invitation to GEI and will be happy to contribute as much as I can. Sorry for not a prompt response but here in Cleveland we have only 24 Hrs a day available :rolleyes: and it's not always enough to do everything you want.

 

Michael, I like your analysis, your idea of living without the dependence on car and personally I would love to move some time in the future from our nice village of Moreland Hills to Downtown or to University Circle area of Cleveland, especially now when my sons graduated from Orange High School and we don't need at least this feature anymore. 10 years before, though, we moved from crazy urban environment of Moscow to Moreland Hills, OH. I immediately fell in love with its almost paradise feeling of unrealistically peaceful co-existence of human civilization and fearless nature. I still love it. And I still sell more houses in Eastern suburbs of Cleveland than in Cleveland itself. So far I personally feed my urbanistic nostalgie by travelling back to Moscow. I've just come back from there two weeks ago. What a co-incedence - I was in Moscow on my International Real Estate investment consulting business and one of my business goals is to sell Cleveland to long term foreign investors.

 

Back from my personal "off" to the topic. Yes, I will be happy to help GEI people to explore opportunities in Cleveland area. I actively work with a group of investors right now who buy, remodel and rent out the single family homes in Buckeye area - close to Shaker Square, just across the street from St.Luke's with its newer development project. Initial purchase price for foreclosed houses which they buy is within $5K. That's only one sample of easy investment opportunities in Cleveland.

 

Big advantage of investing in Cleveland is low property tax rate. Let's see what's going on at the University Circle area. Part of it belongs to the city of Cleveland, part - to Cleveland Heights. Cleveland Heights neighborhoods including Coventry or Cedar-Lee which you mentioned before are very attractive but they have very high property taxes. As an example you may refer to one of my listings in Cleveland Heights Visit My Website. City of Cleveland not only has a lower tax rate but also offers very attractive tax abatement to some of new projects. Higher crime rate and poor school system are the biggest disadvantages of Cleveland. The new Euclid Corridor project http://www.euclidtransit.org/home.asp is making a big difference in Downtown. It looks much better now. That's a good sign.

 

Mayfield Heights has reasonable property tax rate, more or less reasonable pricing (not in all neighborhoods!), stable demand for purchase and rent, nice people friendly environment and relatively short commuting time to UC or Downtown. There is a bus line along Mayfield Rd. (Rt.322) http://www.gcrta.org/pdf/9X.pdf. So, people do not totally depend on their cars to get to the job but because of relatively short driving distances, most of the people still use their cars.

 

We will have the First Cleveland International Investment Forum on May 21-23, 2008 which will be dedicated to new opportunities for foreign investors. Sorry, I have only Russian version of the Forum's program and guest registration at www.Local-n-Global.com/Forum. English version will be published in a week. I will keep you posted.

 

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