UK House prices: News & Views

[drbubb]

Even since this post on Monday, lenders are raising their rates.

Nationwide have raised all their rates and other lenders are doing likewise. That 4.99% deal is no longer available - it's up to 5.29% now.

The "golden days" of low rates may be ending quickly

== ==

 

The Foxes got in early...

 

Fox lives high life in skyscraper

 

Fox lives high life in skyscraper

The intrepid visitor spent two weeks roaming free and surviving on scraps of food left by builders at the 288 metre Shard building at London Bridge.

 

The animal, named Romeo by staff, is thought to have entered via the central stairwell before conquering the climb to reach the building's roof. But his stay ended when he became trapped on the 72nd floor of what will become Europe's biggest building when it is completed.

 

Romeo was caught by Southwark Council pest control officers and taken to Riverside Animal Centre in Wallington where the hungry explorer was given a thorough medical and a few good meals.

 

"We explained to him that if foxes were meant to be 72 storeys off the ground, they would have evolved wings," said Ted Burden, the centre's founder.

 

The fox was then released back into the London Bridge neighbourhood, close to his den and family.

 

/more: http://uk.news.yahoo.com/21/20110224/tuk-f...er-6323e80.html

[drbubb]

Are traders vampires? I don't think so

. . .

Of course the REAL vampires are those who work at BANKS (and their political allies) who trade financial instruments to create wealth alchemically. They thought/think they were/are geniuses, whereas they actuallly need their heads to be severed from their bodies and put onto pointy sticks.

The comment on bankers stands up IMHO,

 

But only because banks have grown too large, way beyond the level at which they are serving the economy, and they have sought to become master - creating laws and trading instruments and activities that are ultimately parasitic on society.

 

We have too many banks, and too many bankers.

 

The banking system is too big (at 20-30% of profits) - and therefore designed to fail periodically. Shrink it, and we would have fewer booms, fewer busts. There might also be fewer trading opportunities too. And many of those who make their living from trading would need to do something else. Personally, I think about the "something else" regularly. Maybe I will come up with an alternative someday.

[drbubb]

i did not intend to call all traders vampires and i appologise for it. i was wound up by him using the word 'vampire' for benefit claimants. bubb invests in property him self and makes a profit from peoples basic need for shelter. people who are poor need the benefits to pay the cost of living. people dont chose to be poor. he is more like a vampire than me.

If I was trading less, I would be paying less tax.

 

So another activity that allows me to feed myself, have a decent life, and pay less tax might be rather compelling.

 

I do think that the UK pays out far too many benefits, and has much to learn from the efficiency of Hong Kong. I voted with my plane ticket when I moved to HK. I still pay tax to Uncle Sam, but I see less of my other income frittered away in fashionable socialism. And I am not surrounded by people who think the state owes them so many entitlements, at a time when taxpayers and otherwise-good businesses are collapsing thanks to the scale of the sucking.

[drbubb]

It is the MORNING AFTER - and this Hangover will be Nasty

http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/prope...or-a-fall-10707

nice bearish article from Moneyweek thats difficult to argue against

The housing market is heading for a fall By Bengt Saelensminde Feb 23, 2011

 

On Monday, Rightmove delivered news of its latest health check on the UK housing market. And boy was it ugly.

 

Rightmove spelled out the news in three grim statistics:

 

• 1.3m properties were put on market last year

• 884,000 properties were sold (HMRC data)

• 530,000 mortgages were granted

 

Those three facts all point to one thing: the UK housing market could soon be falling in a big way.

 

Let's break that down to see why.

 

The half a million property overhang

Rightmove represents 90% of the housing market in the UK. So its statistics are meaningful and shouldn't be ignored.

 

The story this time is a very worrying one for homeowners.

 

If 1.3m homes came to the market and 884,000 sold, that left a new overhang of just under half a million properties. But had it not been for rich cash-buyers, ferreting away investment property (no mortgage), this would have been much worse.

 

The other issue is credit. If buyers can't get mortgages, then there is very little chance that that massive overhang of property is going to get cleared anytime soon

. . .

Ultimately, the underlying imbalance in demand and supply of houses has been repressed by low rates. Existing homeowners have hung on in there and cash rich buyers have chased any old yield - together, they've kept the market in check.

 

As the imbalance continues to grow and rates start to let rip, things are about to change.

 

/more: http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/prope...or-a-fall-10707

[Van]

> If 1.3m homes came to the market and 884,000 sold, that left a new overhang of just under half a million properties.

 

You can track the number of properties for sale within a postcode here:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices-in...chLocation=sw16

 

It's very noticeable that in "nice" areas houses still seem to be selling, whereas in less desirable area like Streatham and Walthamstow no one seems to be buying and the supply is at the same level as it was last summer. Prices have come down much more in these areas.

 

I have notice many more houses coming to the market just this week. The spring rush is definitely here - supply will balloon this summer. That half million overhang could easily double.

[crushtherents]

Well, obviously I disagree with that.

If you are living off the state (& its taxpayers) you are hadly in a position to call independent people, who pay taxes: "vampires."

(BTW, I have paid more than Pds 500,000 in taxes since I began this way of life. I wonder how many vamps lived off that?)

 

I suggest you think again, and realise that a defensive impulse has corrupted your ability to reason. Time to reboot.

your not independant. your using the facilities paid for by taxpayers and then you started the vampire name calling cos other people are using other taxparer funded facilities. you are benefiting from the us taxpayer right now cos you are working within the framework of global security they created for YOU and your not paying them a bean. its up to you if you want to leave the country where you were born to avoid taxes - calling people vampire for having little choice is out of order.

 

[crushtherents]

If I was trading less, I would be paying less tax.

 

So another activity that allows me to feed myself, have a decent life, and pay less tax might be rather compelling.

 

I do think that the UK pays out far too many benefits, and has much to learn from the efficiency of Hong Kong. I voted with my plane ticket when I moved to HK. I still pay tax to Uncle Sam, but I see less of my other income frittered away in fashionable socialism. And I am not surrounded by people who think the state owes them so many entitlements, at a time when taxpayers and otherwise-good businesses are collapsing thanks to the scale of the sucking.

you are assuming all people on benefits are cold blooded vicious murders. this is far from the truth. people on benefits are not like vampires at all. they are using a facility paid for by others to make the best of their lifes. its not their fault. i get benefits - i could give them back but why the hell should i refuse them? i dont think you would turn down unconditional money paid into you're bank account

 

[Van]

stuff

 

Dude, you seriously need to grow up. There are plenty of vampires and leeches who suck off the system, who could work but don't, or who are in immoral, overprotected, and overrewarded professions. Life is not fair, and it's not going to get any fairer.

[crushtherents]

stirring

dude you seriously need to look at who started this instead of trying to turn me in to you're victim.

 

[drbubb]

your not independant. your using the facilities paid for by taxpayers and then you started the vampire name calling cos other people are using other taxparer funded facilities. you are benefiting from the us taxpayer right now cos you are working within the framework of global security they created for YOU and your not paying them a bean. its up to you if you want to leave the country where you were born to avoid taxes - calling people vampire for having little choice is out of order.

???

I have paid a rather HUGE amount of taxes over my lifetime.

Various governments (and those that live off them) have done well by my efforts.

 

So I dont really "get" your point at all

[drbubb]

i get benefits - i could give them back but why the hell should i refuse them? i dont think you would turn down unconditional money paid into you're bank account

I was without a job (or much of an income) for months, even years.

And I never took a penny from the government. I did not need to.

Luckily, I found a way to support myself, before I ran out of funds.

 

I don't blame you for taking benefits that are legally yours. But that does not mean that most benefit seekers are not unfairly living off the state.

As I said, the culture is very different in Hong Kong. And I like the way the Hong kongers handle benefit seeking, more than what British culture encourages.

 

In the end, I think the British and American systems will collapse under their own weight before long - Then the benefits recipients will suddenly realise the unsustainability of the system they are living off. I think it may be healthier for people to come to that realisation sooner rather than later, and try to wean themslves off it.

[crushtherents]

I was without a job (or much of an income) for months, even years.

And I never took a penny from the government. I did not need to.

Luckily, I found a way to support myself, before I ran out of funds.

 

I don't blame you for taking benefits that are legally yours. But that does not mean that most benefit seekers are not unfairly living off the state.

As I said, the culture is very different in Hong Kong. And I like the way the Hong kongers handle benefit seeking, more than what British culture encourages.

 

In the end, I think the British and American systems will collapse under their own weight before long - Then the benefits recipients will suddenly realise the unsustainability of the system they are living off. I think it may be healthier for people to come to that realisation sooner rather than later, and try to wean themslves off it.

i dont disagree with you. there has to be less benefits paid with deflation and austerity. its you're use of the word 'vampire' that has got my goat. ps. read vans post above. i think he should have directed it in you're direction.

 

[crushtherents]

???

I have paid a rather HUGE amount of taxes over my lifetime.

Various governments (and those that live off them) have done well by my efforts.

 

So I dont really "get" your point at all

i'm trying to point out that you benefit from things you've never paid for. example- you didn't pay for the clean up at chernobyl.

[drbubb]

i'm trying to point out that you benefit from things you've never paid for. example- you didn't pay for the clean up at chernobyl.

What??

Am i reeponsible for THAT now?

I am self-sufficient, pay taxes, and do things that help others.

 

I am not ready to also clean up a nuclear mess in Russia that I had nothing to do with.

 

On the other hand, I want to encourage people to wean themselves from a dependency on the state, and things like benefits payments and artificially low rates.

 

Else, they may get MASSACRED when those favorable influences are suddenly cutoff in the future.

[drbubb]

i dont disagree with you. there has to be less benefits paid with deflation and austerity. its you're use of the word 'vampire' that has got my goat. ps. read vans post above. i think he should have directed it in you're direction.

I think he knew who he was responding to.

In what way is trading an "overprotected" or subsidised profession? It is one of the most competitive you can find.

 

Meantime, I am well aware that it is mainly a zero-sum game. And I am grateful that I live in a world that allows me to make a living by doing "detective work", and other forms of research - that I find personally rewarding. I express my gratitude by creating and developing this website. It is a way of sharing my research and discoveries with others, in hope that I will create a "positive feedback cycle" (which some would call "good karma.")

[crushtherents]

What??

Am i reeponsible for THAT now?

I am self-sufficient, pay taxes, and do things that help others.

 

I am not ready to also clean up a nuclear mess in Russia that I had nothing to do with.

 

On the other hand, I want to encourage people to wean themselves from a dependency on the state, and things like benefits payments and artificially low rates.

 

Else, they may get MASSACRED when those favorable influences are suddenly cutoff in the future.

i'm not saying you are responsible. i'm saying you have benefited from some other people paying for a clean up. I,e. you benefit from other peoples taxes too.

[crushtherents]

I think he knew who he was responding to.

In what way is trading an "overprotected" or subsidised profession? It is one of the most competitive you can find.

he said to stop moaning. it's you doing the crying about vampires so the post should have been disrected at you

 

[Jake]

Can we stop this nonsense on this thread? Start another for this, if need be.

 

People are dead in NZ, ME is exploding and we are talking about 'Vampires' on a housing thread. It's hardly relevant here!! These posts should all be deleted or moved IMO.

[wee Jinky]

Can we stop this nonsense on this thread? Start another for this, if need be.

 

People are dead in NZ, ME is exploding and we are talking about 'Vampires' on a housing thread. It's hardly relevant here!! These posts should all be deleted or moved IMO.

 

hear hear

the one thing I value about GEI is the level of maturity

and the lack of personal abuse thrown about that you get on :eg HPC

so -back to the housing market

its fukked innit

[drbubb]

hear hear

the one thing I value about GEI is the level of maturity

and the lack of personal abuse thrown about that you get on :eg HPC

so -back to the housing market

its fukked innit

Fine. (I think it is clear to everyone by now where the logic lies in that prior discussion.)

Why not pick up on this point - Directed towards Landlords - who are in denial about what they are facing...

 

"I want to encourage people to wean themselves from a dependency on the state, and things like benefits payments and artificially low rates.

Else, they may get MASSACRED when those favorable influences are suddenly cutoff in the future."

 

LL's get both:

+ Rents, subsidized by the state - paid as Housing benefits, and

+ Low rates, robbing savers, driven down by Central bank influence.

 

I think it is a GREAT TIME to get out of the BTL business. I wonder how many will figure this out while prices

are still at inflated levels?

[neil324]

Talking of rents, just reading on HPC that 40% of the private rental sector is paid for via benefits.

 

No link and not sure if the figure is correct.

 

A few doors down from where i'm living a guy in his 30's split from his girlfriend and has had his house on the market for over a year at 2007 prices, he can't drop the price as he bought it in 2007. He has decided to rent it out and the first day a stream of single mothers went through the door. Not cheap either the rent, must be renting it as furnished. He can kiss goodbye to his possessions then.

 

Any number of similar properties in the area for sale going for 25% less.

 

The Birmingham market is well and truly fucked.

[drbubb]

Talking of rents, just reading on HPC that 40% of the private rental sector is paid for via benefits.

 

No link and not sure if the figure is correct.

I have seen a 41% figure.

That's 41% of the tenants of private landlords, are paid for by the state.

 

This is a ridiculously high figure IMHO, which is one of the things that triggered my "blood from a stone comment."

Taxpayers are bleeding to support landlords, made rich by aggressive monetary policy. (Vampires, you might say.)

[tallim]

I have seen a 41% figure.

That's 41% of the tenants of private landlords, are paid for by the state.

 

This is a ridiculously high figure IMHO, which is one of the things that triggered my "blood from a stone comment."

Taxpayers are bleeding to support landlords, made rich by aggressive monetary policy. (Vampires, you might say.)

 

It probably means that in certain areas and certain types of housing they are 80-90% of the market. I presume they think that the landlords are the suckers in this game, I might agree with them if they used their leverage properly to set market prices and it wasn't for the fact that a joined up Government could create housing for almost material cost alone.

 

They control planning, so land price is almost nothing, farm land at £4-6k per acre.

They could convert unemployed people into employed people for very little incremental cost (£10k on benefits vs. £15k employment net of tax?).

 

It could be a great moneysaver, they do not have to pay market price to provide the service and if they happen to create oversupply, just sell it off and net the profit from the increased value of the land created by allowing the land to be used for residential purposes.

 

Persimmon, Taylor Wimpey, Barratt and the land owners would be spitting feathers, but why should a Government care about that?

[BoldAsBrass]

Street after street after street of terraced houses have been bought in towns like Preston and Bolton - tarted up with a 5k kitchen/bathroom/carpets makeover and rented to DHSS tenants for a guaranteed minimum of £395 a month - more if the local market average rent is higher.

 

So, £4.8k in guaranteed annual income for the landlords.

 

And lots of those houses were bought for 20k 10 years ago. They've already paid for themselves twice and are now real cash cows.

 

There was a program on the box years ago - must have been 2002 ish - featuring a woman in Preston who had bought her council house using Right to Buy in the late 90s. A few years later she wanted to move but decided to rent it out and buy another place for herself.

 

And, off she went. A couple of years later she had 17 properties - all within the same few streets. She bought them all on 15 year repayment mortgages. They'll be paid off in the next few years and, apart from the 70k income they must bring in, she will have - even in today's market - at least 1.5 million quids worth of property owned outright. She was, if memory serves, a hairdresser.

 

She should have run courses on how to become a property millionaire - because she's actually done it - all on borrowed money and with the government (us) paying the rent.

[John Doe]

> If 1.3m homes came to the market and 884,000 sold, that left a new overhang of just under half a million properties.

 

You can track the number of properties for sale within a postcode here:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices-in...chLocation=sw16

 

It's very noticeable that in "nice" areas houses still seem to be selling, whereas in less desirable area like Streatham and Walthamstow no one seems to be buying and the supply is at the same level as it was last summer. Prices have come down much more in these areas.

 

I have notice many more houses coming to the market just this week. The spring rush is definitely here - supply will balloon this summer. That half million overhang could easily double.

 

Also depends how many need to sell, and how many are just chancing now that HIPS has gone.