SILVER

[romans holiday]

Silver has had the kitchen sink thrown at it in the last 6 months and they STILL couldn't break its uptrend. Speaks volumes imo.

Yes, but also speaks volumes against the hyper-inflation hype of silver to the moon....soon...

[warpig]

Let's be honest, silver should be trading much higher than it is today. Anyone that can't see the manipulation in the markets isn't looking hard enough. The price could go to $15, but you won't be able to buy physical at these prices.

[Peppa Pig]

Let's be honest, silver should be trading much higher than it is today. Anyone that can't see the manipulation in the markets isn't looking hard enough. The price could go to $15, but you won't be able to buy physical at these prices.

well i don't really see why. the cost of producing silver is currently at about $15.00 (which dovetails well with the chart forcast) and these guys have every incentive here at $30.00 to sell sell sell.

 

ps. i understand that in 08 there was a shortage of retail supply on certain products. the supply chain is much more robust now (look at all the new dealers in town) and, in any case, there will always be large bars available even if coins do dry up for a space.

[G0ldfinger]

well i don't really see why. the cost of producing silver is currently at about $15.00 (which dovetails well with the chart forcast) and these guys have every incentive here at $30.00 to sell sell sell.

The question is: can they sell enough?

[stunlee]

well i don't really see why. the cost of producing silver is currently at about $15.00

 

That is a very interesting fact. Has the price increased significantly due to the increase in oil costs? Silver was selling for under 5 dollars an ounce ten years ago. For what it is worth I could certainly see a fall to around 24 or 25 dollars, the daily and weekly charts look absolutely horrible. Whether physical would be available at that price is another question.

[warpig]

I don't understand your way of thinking... The production cost is literally just that, it says nothing about the spot price. There's clearly more of an incentive to sell at higher prices and it's no secret that commodities will go higher with each iteration of QE, which everyone agrees has to happen, why not wait? They've been painting the charts for 4 years, it's as clear as day to me. They don't do it all the time, but they have a tight grasp on the price of silver at the moment with the lead up to 'The European Solution.' When Europe either goes bang or whoosh silver will fly...

 

There already isn't enough physical silver to satisfy production and investment demand, which is why the COMEX operates under a fractional reserve basis.

 

 

 

well i don't really see why. the cost of producing silver is currently at about $15.00 (which dovetails well with the chart forcast) and these guys have every incentive here at $30.00 to sell sell sell.

 

ps. i understand that in 08 there was a shortage of retail supply on certain products. the supply chain is much more robust now (look at all the new dealers in town) and, in any case, there will always be large bars available even if coins do dry up for a space.

[Peppa Pig]

I don't understand your way of thinking... The production cost is literally just that, it says nothing about the spot price. There's clearly more of an incentive to sell at higher prices and it's no secret that commodities will go higher with each iteration of QE, which everyone agrees has to happen, why not wait? They've been painting the charts for 4 years, it's as clear as day to me. They don't do it all the time, but they have a tight grasp on the price of silver at the moment with the lead up to 'The European Solution.' When Europe either goes bang or whoosh silver will fly...

 

There already isn't enough physical silver to satisfy production and investment demand, which is why the COMEX operates under a fractional reserve basis.

i looked at fortuna silver and their cash cost is about $7.50 per ag oz equivalent. now, cash cost is not all the cost of sale, but i wanted to check the validity of the $15.00 i mentioned before.

 

if i had a way of producing something and selling it instantly for 100% profit, i'd be doing so as quickly as possible while the opportunity lasted. the violent sell offs in the light of this are not too difficult to appreciate.

 

There already isn't enough physical silver to satisfy production and investment demand, which is why the COMEX operates under a fractional reserve basis.

if this was actually true, then there would be a shortage. if people who believe they own allocated silver are being conned, then that is a different thing altogether and would lead to a price explosion - but is this happening? i don't know. i expect where there is opportunity to mislead people (mf global) or even for outright theft / fraud, then i suppose it must take place at the margin. you're implying that it is systemic. i truly hope NOT!

[warpig]

There is nothing magical about 100% when you can sell at [2|3|4|X]00% in the short to medium term.

 

There is a shortage, just look at the COMEX silver inventory, it's in massive decline. I'm not suggesting it's people with allocated accounts that are being conned. I'm suggesting investors who bought paper equivalent silver contracts are distorting the market price, as there isn't a 1:1 ratio of paper to physical. IMO once the COMEX shelves are bare, the price for physical silver will soar.

 

Silver is so critical to sustaining our way of life, I believe Western governments take an active interest in manipulating the price. Given they suppress the price and given the Western financial system is a house of cards, demand for physical is set to soar as there is a scramble for physical assets. I am now more concerned about the number of ounces I have than the price.

 

COMEX SILVER WAREHOUSE

 

 

i looked at fortuna silver and their cash cost is about $7.50 per ag oz equivalent. now, cash cost is not all the cost of sale, but i wanted to check the validity of the $15.00 i mentioned before.

 

if i had a way of producing something and selling it instantly for 100% profit, i'd be doing so as quickly as possible while the opportunity lasted. the violent sell offs in the light of this are not too difficult to appreciate.

 

There already isn't enough physical silver to satisfy production and investment demand, which is why the COMEX operates under a fractional reserve basis.

if this was actually true, then there would be a shortage. if people who believe they own allocated silver are being conned, then that is a different thing altogether and would lead to a price explosion - but is this happening? i don't know. i expect where there is opportunity to mislead people (mf global) or even for outright theft / fraud, then i suppose it must take place at the margin. you're implying that it is systemic. i truly hope NOT!

[Peppa Pig]

There is nothing magical about 100% when you can sell at [2|3|4|X]00% in the short to medium term.

 

There is a shortage, just look at the COMEX silver inventory, it's in massive decline. I'm not suggesting it's people with allocated accounts that are being conned. I'm suggesting investors who bought paper equivalent silver contracts are distorting the market price, as there isn't a 1:1 ratio of paper to physical. IMO once the COMEX shelves are bare, the price for physical silver will soar.

 

Silver is so critical to sustaining our way of life, I believe Western governments take an active interest in manipulating the price. Given they suppress the price and given the Western financial system is a house of cards, demand for physical is set to soar as there is a scramble for physical assets. I am now more concerned about the number of ounces I have than the price.

 

COMEX SILVER WAREHOUSE

There is nothing magical about 100% when you can sell at [2|3|4|X]00% in the short to medium term.

i don't think that is the way businesses operate - look at coin dealers, for example. they buy and sell simultaneously. do ASUS wait for the price of their mainboards to skyrocket before selling? of course not. they sell as many units of x as they can at whatever marginal profit they can obtain. profit margins vary. hugely in the commodities arena which is why futures markets came into being.

what you're talking about is speculation. very different kind of practise altogether i think.

[G0ldfinger]

COMEX SILVER WAREHOUSE

WOW! Call me Silverfinger!

[warpig]

I fully appreciate bullion dealers buy and sell at any price and their business model is based on volume, but suggesting taking profits at 100% is speculating, is it not? Either way, we are teetering on the edge of a financial abyss, do the charts express this in any meaningful way...? No.

 

There is nothing magical about 100% when you can sell at [2|3|4|X]00% in the short to medium term.

i don't think that is the way businesses operate - look at coin dealers, for example. they buy and sell simultaneously. do ASUS wait for the price of their mainboards to skyrocket before selling? of course not. they sell as many units of x as they can at whatever marginal profit they can obtain. profit margins vary. hugely in the commodities arena which is why futures markets came into being.

what you're talking about is speculation. very different kind of practise altogether i think.

[Peppa Pig]

I fully appreciate bullion dealers buy and sell at any price and their business model is based on volume, but suggesting taking profits at 100% is speculating, is it not? Either way, we are teetering on the edge of a financial abyss, do the charts express this in any meaningful way...? No.

 

100% marginal profit is anomalous to say the least. the price pressure must be enormous. how long before those holding it up are exhausted?

[Errol]

[huntergatherer]

The low might be in........wait for it........four months time-5 April 2012 around $11-$16 per ounce according to this:

 

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Schmidt/dec122011.html

[Peppa Pig]

The low might be in........wait for it........four months time-5 April 2012 around $11-$16 per ounce according to this:

 

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Schmidt/dec122011.html

 

the bull advance that preceded could just about be considered long enough, according to lindsey, to have to count the bear market from the failed high in august rather than from the actual high in april. this would give the market much longer to achieve his $11-$15 estimates. it really was a gigantic move both in price and in time. but ned has either refuted this special case or neglected it.

[stunlee]

The low might be in........wait for it........four months time-5 April 2012 around $11-$16 per ounce according to this:

 

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Schmidt/dec122011.html

 

This and the video posted by Errol are certainly both very interesting, I can't remember a time when the fundamentals for a commodity look so incredibly bullish and the technicals so bearish. I wonder if this kind of ultra-low call for silver shows that we are near the end of the eight month silver bear, in a similar way to the large number of articles in spring this year calling for 100 dollar silver hinted at the end of the bull market. Although the technicals on the daily and weekly charts do look terrible, I simply cannot see a fall to 11 dollars, the physical dealers would surely be cleaned out within days. For the meantime, I am happy to trade this beautiful range between 31 and 33 dollars. Long may that continue.

[dunker1]

The silver rollercoaster heading down.......I see $25-$27 at year end.

[Manual labourer]

This and the video posted by Errol are certainly both very interesting, I can't remember a time when the fundamentals for a commodity look so incredibly bullish and the technicals so bearish. I wonder if this kind of ultra-low call for silver shows that we are near the end of the eight month silver bear, in a similar way to the large number of articles in spring this year calling for 100 dollar silver hinted at the end of the bull market. Although the technicals on the daily and weekly charts do look terrible, I simply cannot see a fall to 11 dollars, the physical dealers would surely be cleaned out within days. For the meantime, I am happy to trade this beautiful range between 31 and 33 dollars. Long may that continue.

 

 

"I simply cannot see a fall to 11 dollars, the physical dealers would surely be cleaned out within days"

 

 

I looked at this senario and came away with a slightly different view!

 

Comex and dealers get "cleaned" out on price rallies !!

 

 

Which is exactly what has happened, now reverse this comex and dealers will be loaded up on large "very large fast moves to the downside" ie the exchange back from the weak shorter time frame hands or leveraged speculators ?

 

WEAK HANDS only want to hold a rising value priced item in a short term view, now we are 30% down from highs when a large amount was bought from comex dealers etc who were speculating on $100 silver by this year end!!!. If we go back to $22.5-25 area a 50% retracement from the top,then a large amount of buyers of the recent high may throw the towel in, at which point $11-16.00 would be do able due to the high volatility of silver!

 

Gold would be back around $1250 and oil $70-80 as the world starts to deflate, prior to real printing and then true hyper inflation!

 

Regards

 

ML

[stunlee]

"I simply cannot see a fall to 11 dollars, the physical dealers would surely be cleaned out within days"

 

 

I looked at this senario and came away with a slightly different view!

 

Comex and dealers get "cleaned" out on price rallies !!

 

 

Which is exactly what has happened, now reverse this comex and dealers will be loaded up on large "very large fast moves to the downside" ie the exchange back from the weak shorter time frame hands or leveraged speculators ?

 

WEAK HANDS only want to hold a rising value priced item in a short term view, now we are 30% down from highs when a large amount was bought from comex dealers etc who were speculating on $100 silver by this year end!!!. If we go back to $22.5-25 area a 50% retracement from the top,then a large amount of buyers of the recent high may throw the towel in, at which point $11-16.00 would be do able due to the high volatility of silver!

 

Gold would be back around $1250 and oil $70-80 as the world starts to deflate, prior to real printing and then true hyper inflation!

 

Regards

 

ML

 

Yep, you are right ML. That old buy high sell low approach seems to be as popular as ever. I still think that if the paper market was to be pushed down towards into the low teens then anyone trying to buy physical metal would find out that it was suddenly not available at the dealers or only available at a considerable price above the spot price. Just taking a quick look at the website of my local dealer that process seems to have already started. A lot of the goods are listed as not being available and those that are available seem to be actually more expensive than they were a week ago when the silver price was three dollars higher (even accounting for the considerable fall in the Euro in the same time).

I guess that there would start to be problems if it became apparent that the paper price had very little relation to the actual metal price, something that looks like it could be starting now.

[alexreeve]

Given similar circumstances to 2008 it seems quite possible this correction is the first shoulder in a large inverse head and shoulders correction.

This is shaping up nicely, and profitably (so far).

[huntergatherer]

Silver Plummeting as Metals, Miners Decline

 

Spot silver down more than 6% Wednesday morning

 

Dec 14, 2011, 1:16 pm EST

 

“We have the beginnings of a real bear market, and the death of a bull (in gold),” said Dennis Gartman, who advised readers of his investment newsletter to avoid buying gold back in August.

 

Turning to stock exchange trading, gold and silver trusts were falling fast and hard.

 

•The SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:GLD) was showing losses of more than 2.7%.

•The iShares Gold Trust (NYSE:IAU) was down around 2.9%.

•The iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:SLV) was falling sharply, down between 6% and 6.6%.

 

Gold and silver mining ETFs were following suit.

 

•The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:GDX) was down about 4.6%.

•The Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:GDXJ) fell about 5.25%.

•The Global X Silver Miners ETF (NYSE:SIL) was down some 6.2%.

 

Gold mining shares were showing sharp losses across the board.

 

•Agnico-Eagle Mines (NYSE:AEM) was showing losses of some 4.5%.

•Barrick Gold (NYSE:ABX) was down around 4.5%.

•Goldcorp (NYSE:GG) was showing losses of around 3.5%.

•Newmont Mining (NYSE:NEM) was around 3.25%.

•NovaGold Resources (AMEX:NG) was more than 5.8% lower.

 

Silver mining shares were taking it on the chin as well.

 

•Coeur d’Alene Mines (NYSE:CDE) was moving lower, down nearly 5.8%.

•Hecla Mining (NYSE:HL) was down more than 8.5%.

•Pan American Silver (NASDAQ:PAAS) was down more than 6.2%.

•Silver Wheaton (NYSE:SLW) was showing losses of 6.6%.

•Silver Standard Resources (NASDAQ:SSRI) was down more than 8%.

 

http://www.investorplace.com/2011/12/spot-gold-prices-spot-silver-prices-gld-miners/

[romans holiday]

Silver finally down into the 20s, my target buying zone. AGQ down to 46, and still have a buy order on at 40 should silver plunge further.

 

Starting to get an itchy trigger finger, but think I'll hold off for another week or so.

 

 

[Peppa Pig]

What underpins these instruments, agq, zsl etc. These must carry huge institutional risk.

[Peppa Pig]

Yep, you are right ML. That old buy high sell low approach seems to be as popular as ever. I still think that if the paper market was to be pushed down towards into the low teens then anyone trying to buy physical metal would find out that it was suddenly not available at the dealers or only available at a considerable price above the spot price. Just taking a quick look at the website of my local dealer that process seems to have already started. A lot of the goods are listed as not being available and those that are available seem to be actually more expensive than they were a week ago when the silver price was three dollars higher (even accounting for the considerable fall in the Euro in the same time).

I guess that there would start to be problems if it became apparent that the paper price had very little relation to the actual metal price, something that looks like it could be starting now.

You might not be able to get certain products, but there will be silver in some format available. As I said before, I reckon the dealers would cope much better this time. There are so many more dealers, suppliers and private mint products on the market today.

[huntergatherer]

Silver In Trouble

 

http://www.swingtradingdaily.com/2011/12/07/editorial/silver-in-trouble/