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Jaime Correa & The 40 Percent Plan

Living in our Post Peak Future

=========================

 

KunstlerCast #67: Jaime Correa & The 40 Percent Plan

http://kunstlercast.com/shows/KunstlerCast...ime_Correa.html

 

Planning for Peak Oil / Released: June 4, 2009.

yueminjun.jpg

 

New Urbanist Planner and Author Jaime Correa speaks about urban planning in the peak oil era. KunstlerCast Host Duncan Crary recorded Correa's talk on May 28 at the Albany Roundtable in Albany, N.Y. Correa speaks about how the end of cheap oil will affect communities in the future. He describes his peak oil action plan, which he calls The 40 Percent Plan. As urban communities begin to contract in the future, Correa has some ideas about what people need to do to successfully prepare for the future. James Howard Kunstler introduces Correa and chats with Crary about the role that Correa has played in the New Urbanism. Kunstler also responds to a question posed to him by Correa about his preparations for peak oil.

 

Note: Curse words and adult language occur at 27:30, 27:37 and 30:17

 

Websites: The Correa Report (Jaime's blog) | Correa And Associates | Albany Roundtable

 

Direct Download:

KunstlerCast_67.mp3

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I’ve been waiting for oil to start to run out since I was a kid in the early 80’s, on a video we were show at school in 1982 the presenter finished by saying the bicycle would again be the main method of transport for most people, I remember feeling annoyed that I’d never get to drive a proper car with an internal combustion engine etc…

Roll on 30 years and it’s the same story, I find frustrating that there don’t seem to be any definitive figures on oil reserves, it all depends on who you believe.

I think people will be driving more in ten years although by then a higher percentage of cars will use sources of power other than the internal combustion engine..

 

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I think people will be driving more in ten years although by then a higher percentage of cars will use sources of power other than the internal combustion engine..

 

We have seen people "priced out" of the property market, by the property bubble.

 

Isnt it possible that we will see people priced out of driving their passenger cars by Peak Oil?

I find that very plausible

 

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I’ve been waiting for oil to start to run out since I was a kid in the early 80’s, on a video we were show at school in 1982 the presenter finished by saying the bicycle would again be the main method of transport for most people, I remember feeling annoyed that I’d never get to drive a proper car with an internal combustion engine etc…

Roll on 30 years and it’s the same story, I find frustrating that there don’t seem to be any definitive figures on oil reserves, it all depends on who you believe.

I think people will be driving more in ten years although by then a higher percentage of cars will use sources of power other than the internal combustion engine..

 

I remember a radio prog from about 1978 - basic message was - UK will have no worries about oil in the future as North sea Oil comes online and the party that wins the next election will benefit in the event the election was in 1979 and Mrs T won.

 

World oil production has flatlined for a few years now - even when prices had a sustained period above 100 USD output hardly changed at all. We have a global recession the worst since the Great depression and oil is 70 USD = Oil production has peaked - its a bell curve so meaningful declines will be a few years away - but they are I think coming.

 

IMO oil will not get rediculously expensive instead the economy will decline so that oil demand matches supply - this seems to be happening - and is logical as demand and supply must match.

 

I have watched all of Martenson's crash course he feels that to say the least its unfortunate we have a bursting credit bubble (the biggest ever thanks to fiat currency) coinciding with peak oil and a demographic problem too.

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IMO oil will not get rediculously expensive instead the economy will decline so that oil demand matches supply

- this seems to be happening - and is logical as demand and supply must match.

 

For a while, maybe.

And if the world economy was only the US and the UK, maybe.

 

But oil demand is continuing to grow in China and India as they add autos.

This new demand, plus ongoing restrictions in oil supply, will bring on the Peak Oil crisis.

 

Here's another longer documentary

 

PEAK OIL - How it will change you life (with Richard Heinberg)

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-2...gOd28GrDQ&q

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Theres a good idea for a green business linked to his site.

http://www.postpeakliving.com/courses

 

Interesting. Maybe we should interview them?

 

They are still looking to grow their faculty:

 

http://www.postpeakliving.com/join-post-peak-living-faculty

 

-- --

 

Do you have a course that prepares people for the future that is coming at us quickly?

Here are just some of the topics your course could cover:

 

all matters related to growing, storing and cooking food

skills (medical, appliance repair, welding, electric vehicle conversations, bicycle repair, small manufacturing, etc.)

financial preparation

residential home energy improvements

comprehensive preparation (like the UnCrash Course)

health

For instructors, working with Post Peak Living means:

 

we handle the marketing and administration

we provide the online course management software

you pick when during the week you'll teach the course

Your course may take (but is not restricted to) the following formats:

 

60-minute or 90-minute webinar

half-day course

two sessions a week apart

four sessions, once per week

six sessions, once per week

Please leave some details below and we'll get in touch.

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For me it will be a house with land. 1/2 acre min but preferably more. No mortgage.

In the north in a less populated area preferably in the countryside.

Timescale of about 2 years. This purchase will take me out of cash. future purchases will be specifically for the improvment of becoming self-sufficiant and off-grid and self-education/development.

Removing our reliance on companies, banks, governments and supermarkets is the single most important thing we can do.

 

Great!

 

I think there are alot of people thinking like that.

 

And that realisation has got me thinking that we should somehow "join forces" to compare notes,

strategies, successes and failures along the way.

 

Maybe here on HPC (in a special section perhaps), or alternatively, on GEI.

 

I want to give more thought about what is needed.

 

I have started that process already on this thread:

Sustaining Oneself Financially In A Crash Environment

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A post from HPC, and a reaction:

My two penneth

 

Invest in efficiency (homeowners) - insulation, CFL's, decent boiler. You get a 20-30% return PA rather than 1% on cash

 

DIY renewables if you have the skills - wood burning stove (which can also consume waste cardboard quite efficiently), solar water heating

 

Use land wisely - even a small garden can produce a reasonable % of fresh food. My garden is already producing copious quantities of kale, rocket, radishes, peas, and broad beans. Replaced all the useless shrubs and trees with fruit trees / bushes

 

home compost, urine, wood ash, seaweed, manure all good free alternatives to paying for fertiliser

 

If on a water meter - a water butt is a must and can be used for gardening / car washing

 

Make food from base ingredients, learn how to preserve food. Make your own lunch rather than £5 from a shop

 

Pay down debt

 

Learn - 'mend and make do'

 

Thanks for that list - fairly comprehensive.

 

I ask myself when I read this, how many of these can be implemented in a big city like London?

JH Kunstler is of the opinion that people will have a better quality life in small towns, in our

post peak future.

 

I suppose this is because:

+ The rising crime rate which is likely in big cities

+ Many small towns will be closer to food production

+ In small towns, people can live happily with less density, and less energy will be required to do things like run elevators and air conditioners

 

JHK does a great weekly podcast / Here: http://www.kunstlercast.com/

 

A recent one where he talks about contracting cities:

Contracting Cities & Urban Chickens

http://kunstlercast.com/shows/KunstlerCast...n_Chickens.html

 

... small towns is:

Small Cities and Towns

http://kunstlercast.com/shows/KunstlerCast..._and_Towns.html

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10 years from now will be roughly the same as today regarding energy.

mark my words.

 

Who is "we"?

 

China wont be. They will be using alot more. India too. alot more.

 

Do you think there will be as much oil available? I doubt it.

Even if the same amount, who is going to use less, to make way for China and India?

 

It will have to be the US (now using 27 barrels per capita, vs. 3 for China.

 

If the uS doesnt voluntarily use less, then price action will have to force them to ration.

 

I reckon this is inevitable. No amount of new thinking, or technological breakthrough

is likely to change this.

 

But if you want to stay in denial, that's your own issue

 

 

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