drbubb Posted November 29, 2009 Report Share Posted November 29, 2009 Beyond Gold > Food! Time for Agri Stocks (& Uranium)? What are the stocks to follow? / Food stock charts : Watch ========================================= The Agri fund has been a poor investment for years DBA / DB's Agri Fund ... all-data ...: Last, updated to March 13, 2019: $16.37 dba -vs udn : update : DBA-$16.36/ UDN-$20.88 = Ratio: r-78.4% DBA Agri-Trust in Gold ounces ... update / Last : $16.36 / $1300 = 1.00% Consider the following EXCERPT from: AGRI-FOOD THOUGHTS / by Ned W. Schmidt, CFA, CEBS Each of those bars represents the USDA’s estimate of ending stocks for this crop year relative to expected consumption. For example, less than 2 months of global corn consumption will be in storage at the end of this crop year. For rice, a little more than 2 months of global consumption will be in storage. These statistics are not the lowest that have been experienced. However, both are far lower than the historical experience or that which would provide a comfortable margin of food adequacy. . Globally, the food balances in the “bank” are extremely low. The damage to the rice crops and rice in storage in India and the Philippines, as well as damage to the Arkansas crop, may already be tipping rice into a less than adequate supply situation. As the above statistic for rice is on a global basis, it does not portray the situation within individual nations. If the global average is only two months, some nations have less and some, such as Thailand and Vietnam, have more. As rice is not made in a factory, only the next crop year can eradicate any unmet needs. Agri-Food, aside from not being made in a factory, has another important characteristic that should be understood. In many ways, the global Agri-Food situation is like a giant Rubik’s Cube. If rice is not in adequate supply, then wheat may be used as a substitute. So, while wheat may currently looks plentiful, as the world pushes on the other side of the cube the adequate supply of wheat becomes less than adequate. Most interesting is the level of vegetable oils in stock relative to consumption. Less than one month of the world’s consumption of vegetable oil exists /more: http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/s.../2009/1116.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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