notanewmember Posted July 27, 2013 Author Report Share Posted July 27, 2013 Andreas Clenow Andreas Clenow is a trend following fund manager and he has a book and website, worth a quick browse http://www.following...g-system-rules/ He has a fantasy trading game here (worryingly fun!) http://www.following...s-trading-game/ (PLEASE HAVE A GO!) Try using the Jesse Livermore pivotal points (my interpretation) as a "speculator", you might do well I would ignore the news woman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happy Posted July 27, 2013 Report Share Posted July 27, 2013 Andreas Clenow Andreas Clenow is a trend following fund manager and he has a book and website, worth a quick browse http://www.following...g-system-rules/ I'm currently reading his book 'Following the Trend'. Very interesting stuff! He looks into a diversified managed futures strategy and applies very simple rules to generate very impressive results both in absolute terms and when compared to the DJ World Index or various Hedge Funds (at least over the past 20 or so years). E.g., he starts of by using a simple 10/100 day moving average cross to generate buy/sell, which over time, with a diversified approach (trading ca. 50 instruments), already produces very impressive results (if a bit volatile). I'm about half way through, but he develops the strategy in a very methodical easy to grasp way. Eye opening and definitely worth looking into imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happy Posted July 27, 2013 Report Share Posted July 27, 2013 E.g., SPY as per 'Clenow System Rules' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notanewmember Posted July 27, 2013 Author Report Share Posted July 27, 2013 I'm currently reading his book 'Following the Trend'. Very interesting stuff! He looks into a diversified managed futures strategy and applies very simple rules to generate very impressive results both in absolute terms and when compared to the DJ World Index or various Hedge Funds (at least over the past 20 or so years). E.g., he starts of by using a simple 10/100 day moving average cross to generate buy/sell, which over time, with a diversified approach (trading ca. 50 instruments), already produces very impressive results (if a bit volatile). I'm about half way through, but he develops the strategy in a very methodical easy to grasp way. Eye opening and definitely worth looking into imho. I ordered mine, it's on the way. There are no cheap second hand copies unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notanewmember Posted July 27, 2013 Author Report Share Posted July 27, 2013 I think this is my best score, using a completely simple non emotional mechanical system. I don't think this game was designed with applying your own system but any who it is fun to practice it. You have to click the mouse fast 10x to get in at your price if you want to be "all in" and click 10x to sell out again. The simple system (you can't get any simpler) is buying on a new high, or selling on a new low, with a stop just beneath your entry. The stop is "raised" when it crosses a pivotal point - i.e. a round number such as 200, 250, 300 etc. It is difficult to follow the authors "buying low and selling high" in real life, because the market can always go lower, or much higher than you can withstand. In this game, we are trapped in a box where 200 is "low" and 450 is "high". 1st Trade - Sell at 270 and below, new all time low, Stop 320 Stop raised to the 250 area - Trigger is 240 or below ----- 2nd Trade - Buy 340 and above, new all time high. Stop 320 (nothing to do with the first trade) Stop raised to the 400 area - Trigger is 380 or below ----- I guess one could use variations on that system to generate more signals, instead of all time highs and lows, one could use new highs and new lows for for every 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happy Posted July 27, 2013 Report Share Posted July 27, 2013 . . . or one could go completely MOMO on it ;-) Anyway, a lot of fun, but definitely some limitations with the game. An interesting thing about Clenow's book is that it serves to highlight that the exact entry/exit point is not as important as the overall strategy one employs, specifically with respect to volatility based position sizing and diversifying ones portfolio with non-correlated assets. In the long run, these have a much bigger impact on performance and avoids the dangers of curve fitting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notanewmember Posted July 27, 2013 Author Report Share Posted July 27, 2013 ^ Non-emotional version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notanewmember Posted July 27, 2013 Author Report Share Posted July 27, 2013 . . . or one could go completely MOMO on it ;-) Awesome An interesting thing about Clenow's book is that it serves to highlight that the exact buy/entry point is not as important as the overall strategy one employs, specifically with respect to volatility based position sizing and diversifying ones portfolio with non-correlated assets. In the long run, these have a much bigger impact on performance and avoids the dangers of curve fitting. Yes I would agree on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Van Posted July 27, 2013 Report Share Posted July 27, 2013 Interesting stuff, NANM. I have been going over my own trading rules this past week, and added into it a rule that I must increase my position size whenever the price makes a new high low in the following time-frames: 1 month 3 month 6 month 12 month all-time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notanewmember Posted July 28, 2013 Author Report Share Posted July 28, 2013 I find time/price events of less than "All time", and "2yr" become less significant, and the significance probably falls away exponentially in my opinion, until you just get "noise" in a 5 minute time frame. Stan Weinstein solely uses 2yr new high and all time high price signals. A new 4 weekly high is the shortest signal I would act on, although it is not in my rules. Richard Donchian I believe he developed the 4 weekly price channel (called the Donchian Channels), he didn't make it rich until he was 65 I think, and made $250,000 using his rules. ---- From - http://www.learncurr...rex-Charts.html - ignore the Forex component, it apples to most instruments. Best Trading Time Frames In terms of currency markets the aim of using your charts is to get in and trade trends either up or down. You can focus on long or shorter term time frames but which is the best time frame to trade? No trader should day trade or scalp within the trading day and this is because, while the price trends may look orderly after they have occurred, there random. In addition, fees and spreads, mount up for day traders and profits are so small, they never cover a traders loses. If you look at monthly and weekly charts, you will see periods where a currency pair can trend for weeks to years in length which can be traded these for profit. These big trends are always there and always will be, this is because they reflect the longer term economic cycle and trading them can be very lucrative. Most traders want to be more active and trade shorter moves which can last for, a couple of days to around a week in length. Shorter term charting strategies will use the daily charts and will aim to buy a currency which is oversold or sell a currency which is overbought and this method of trading is referred to as swing trading. Lets look at some basic rules for success, in following long term trends and how to trade overbought and oversold levels in the market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notanewmember Posted July 28, 2013 Author Report Share Posted July 28, 2013 Example of the popular videos out there, and this was only released today, with 1/2 million views; http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NZitXZHdoJg I can't believe it is already 1.8m views after being published for a few days. The Li Ka Shing documentary is stuck under 15,000 views. I guess there is nothing stopping me from making some brain dead videos about video games and making a fortune from Youtube! This thread may give us a clue to how much this guy earns http://pewdiepie.net...&threadID=11981 Maybe he earns $4000 a month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notanewmember Posted July 28, 2013 Author Report Share Posted July 28, 2013 $2890 is a tough score to beat. No matter how many times I tried with a mechanical trading system, I could not beat much over $2000. Even with a different system where we automatically sell >$400, and buy <$250 as we know in advance the box we are in. --- ^As an experiment I covered up the chart with my hand, and traded blind and just watched the news woman. And my first attempt yielded $2512. A Eureka moment! I knew how to beat this game. In the game the news sets the price, but in real life this is not the case, it is price that sets the news. A price point happens tomorrow and journalists go look for the reason why. By the time we hear the news, the price has already moved, in my opinion anyway. And here is the second attempt trading just on news. But I wouldn't try it in real life - it doesn't work! --- And lastly I uncovered the chart and used a combination of using the news, and knowing that $450 is the top. I caught every major trend and acted on every news piece. I think this $3516 score will be tough to beat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happy Posted July 28, 2013 Report Share Posted July 28, 2013 And lastly I uncovered the chart and used a combination of using the news, and knowing that $450 is the top. I caught every major trend and acted on every news piece. I think this $3516 score will be tough to beat! Nice one ;-) I didn't realize the news called the turns (I had it on mute), but the 200 - 450 range is a big big weakness. I guess paper trading is the next best thing to using real money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notanewmember Posted July 29, 2013 Author Report Share Posted July 29, 2013 As a probing experiment, I put a small position on TW. at 103p, we have no confirmation from BDEV (see the BDEV thread) or from the NMX3720 group just yet. In the July Stock Challenge I'm currently at 29 (+1.44%) out of 82. Most people are positive as the market is positive, so it is a tough month to stand out from the crowd. July has been a poor show. All shorts have reversed and show losses. July was not a good month to have any short sales, even in the weakest shares in the weakest groups. A bad experiment! I am 74/82 showing a 5.98% loss. For August, I'll be going all long in the leading shares as the trend is up, so we better stick with the trend, rather than being 1/2ish long and 1/2 short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oddjob Posted July 29, 2013 Report Share Posted July 29, 2013 For August, I'll be going all long in the leading shares as the trend is up, so we better stick with the trend, rather than being 1/2ish long and 1/2 short. You might be interested in this: https://twitter.com/...5704192/photo/1 and this: http://www.businessi...nce-2008-2013-7 I read into it, that the smart money is expecting stocks to be cheaper in the future.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notanewmember Posted July 30, 2013 Author Report Share Posted July 30, 2013 I have read that thank you. The "system" says to be bullish. Until the 1,600 SP500 level is taken out, then I go neutral and maybe look for some opportunistic shorts. The problem I find when one try's to figure out where the smart money is, is when you have figured it out, new smart money appears which was not in the field of play before. It is not transparent. Conversely, when a price goes low, and one figures that smart money must be buying cheap, dormant sellers appear and the price goes even lower, and people ask "where are the sellers coming from?". But this shall be interesting to revisit in 1 and 3 months time. --- The indicator gives mixed results. If we look left of the highlighted peak in the retail side, the last peak like that on the left was in early 2013, and that was a good time to buy the SP500 rather than wait, and next big peak looking further left was in autumn 2011 which was a good time to sell (correct signal). If one can formalize and create a mechanical algorithm of this chart, then it may be worth looking into as a fundamental indicator rather than a technical one. --- Some of us on here are familiar with the works of Weinstein, the chart of the SP500 is in a Stage 2 uptrend. There are "algorithms" in his book to define these patterns. FTSE ALL SHARE - Stage 3 top - BUT where the SP500 leads, the FTSE all share should follow. --- Also I additionally look at Ichimoku clouds occasionally http://stockcharts.c...id=p97936484892 (green cloud stay bullish, red cloud bearish). Combinations; Moving average up, cloud green = bullish Moving average up, cloud red = wait, watch stops Moving average down, cloud green = wait, watch stops Moving average down, cloud red = bearish ^Volume is falling, so stops must be watched carefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notanewmember Posted July 30, 2013 Author Report Share Posted July 30, 2013 The word on the street is that AIM shares will be allowed in ISAs next week, which allows for capital gains tax free speculation. The casino has been brought to the masses. Those 0.1p junk junior oilers/ resource explorers may see a lift. Alternatively one may describe these shares as CEO lifestyle funding vehicles. I won't invest in these until the time is right and we have price action confirmation. But what lies ahead, potentially is a mania. It might be like the mania for junk bonds or dotcoms. --- I may create a random fantasy portfolio of sub 3p shares that are on AIM in the morning, and see how they fair in one year. It will force me to monitor, this market too. No stops for these, boom or bust! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notanewmember Posted July 31, 2013 Author Report Share Posted July 31, 2013 Well lets see if there will be a "wave" of money hitting the AIM market. The government just can't help themselves in stimulating asset markets. Most of these I have chosen at random. They all show awful technicals, except Serviced Office Group, which looks like the best horse out of this stable of 3 legged donkeys. Most of the shares on AIM are highly illiquid (don't expect sell more than £500 worth of shares without causing a lockup in online dealing), risky, dangerous, toxic, high chance of being diluted etc. You get the picture - read the risk warning. Also they have massive bid-ask spreads of 20% sometimes - you need to double your money to make it worthwhile (so it is not worthwhile in these market conditions). The Naked Trader once described AIM as the "Awful Investment Market". This will be updated periodically in this diary and stored here. --- What are AIM shares? http://en.wikipedia....vestment_Market Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notanewmember Posted August 1, 2013 Author Report Share Posted August 1, 2013 No shorts on right now. ---- 1st August Sector Scan FTSE 350 ---- STRONGEST + 90% NMX1730 Forestry & Paper - Very Strong, there is only one share in this index LSE:MNDI Mondi PLC. We'll to look to add this to the Long portfolio. + 88% NMX9530 Software & Computer Services Index + 80% NMX2710 Aerospace & Defense + 80% NMX3350 Automobiles & Parts The home builders have disappeared off these tables! They are +60%. We'll have to watch our stop closely on LSE:TW. ----- WEAKEST - 80% NMX1750 Industrial Metals LSE:EVR is the weakest share, we are poised and ready, on a new low. - 20% NMX1770 Mining (massive improvement) ---- INDICES: SP500 - Bullish (key level 1,600pts) FTSE ALL SHARE XX:ASX - Bullish/Neutral (Key level 3,200pts) GOLD$ - Bearish (Key levels, below $1200/Toz new bearish sell signal, above $1800/Toz for bullish buy signal) GOLD£ - Bearish/Neutral (Key levels, below £800/Toz new bearish sell signal, above £1100/Toz for bullish buy signal) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notanewmember Posted August 2, 2013 Author Report Share Posted August 2, 2013 Example of the popular videos out there, and this was only released today, with 1/2 million views; http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NZitXZHdoJg He makes maybe over $1m to £6m per year possibly according to this video. youtube.com/watch?v=3Ft7cDTNsPQ Additional another top video maker, are the Fine Brothers, who have created a "people reacting" series. An Example - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vx4B_I95LSY Low overheads, recurring residual income, etc. Worth a look. 1000 views = $1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notanewmember Posted August 2, 2013 Author Report Share Posted August 2, 2013 Info Fine Brothers -------> http://en.wikipedia....i/Fine_Brothers PewDiePie -------> http://en.wikipedia....Felix_Kjellberg - 2nd most subscribed Youtube Channel as of July 2013 Smosh --------> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smosh - Number 1 right now. This is a live update on the most popular Youtube channels http://vidstatsx.com...cribed-channels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notanewmember Posted August 2, 2013 Author Report Share Posted August 2, 2013 Aim shares to be allowed in ISAs from 5th August 2013 http://www.stockoped...the-chaff-75857 --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notanewmember Posted August 2, 2013 Author Report Share Posted August 2, 2013 Words of wisdom from self made Billionaires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notanewmember Posted August 3, 2013 Author Report Share Posted August 3, 2013 SP500 closed at 1709. This is a new potential pivotal point as a significant 2 yr high and breakout. A weekly close above 1730 would be a buy signal, and one could use 1680 weekly close or below as a stop. 2xRisk (2x50) = 100 + Strike price is 1830 target on the Sp500. DO YOUR RESEARCH - This is NOT investment advice, but for educational purposes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notanewmember Posted August 3, 2013 Author Report Share Posted August 3, 2013 This one is an anomaly. http://www.ebay.co.u...=item4ac7bba056 100 dummy mobile phones for 99p start price. And there more than one lot of these. Wholesale enquiries are welcome, so presumably there is a massive quantity to get rid of. Each is new and is boxed. What can one do with these? Maybe invest in 5000 of these, display them, and charge people £2 to look at all these phones? It could be some sort of local tourist attraction. Welcome to the Worlds largest phone collection? Maybe create a huge sculpture and sell it to a government department to display outside their offices? Maybe put them in a pen and people can experience "swimming" in mobile phones. A bit like this lady with her 220,000 ball point pen collection; http://www.oobject.c...ollection/7289/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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