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And it is good to be contemplate a switch into Oil, when it is cheap, as it is now.


How will you play it?

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Unfortunately, I don't see an obvious way to buy oil. ETFs over the long hall are just going to suck money through charges, and contango. Just staying out of the energy sector will be profitable. Over the last 10 years, there have been far too many energy junior companies that have no chance of ever returning money to share holders. That was a huge bubble I think people were blind to see.


Perhaps when the trend turns, but mean time keep liquid, and an eye on the precious metals, and their stocks.

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Is this the bottom for Oil?



If you believe in conspiracy theories....


The commodities markets are the most volatile. Volatile = opportunity to profit in the shortest time. In 4 years we've seen $140 and near $29. What has happened to all the people talking about Hubert Peak Oil? OK we were all sucked into it, including myself! Remember Matt Simmons (RIP), he was one of the most vocal on Peak Oil, and the most informed on the subject. No one's talking about peak oil now, as if we have all been emotionally herded into one corner, and ready to be herded again to another corner.


Well the masters are back, pulling the strings. I will reveal them in the next few sentences.


Goldman Sachs was mocked for putting out a forecast last year for oil to reach $20. And with Rockerfeller taking money out of fossil fuels in 2014. We're not laughing now as we approach $20.


Goldman Sachs, this week, has proclaimed this is a start of a new bull market for oil...15th Jan 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-15/goldman-sachs-sees-oil-bull-market-being-born-in-today-s-crashI will certainly take some notice here. I feel this is a rinse and repeat, and another big pay cheque is at the end of this. <Conspiracy hat OFF>


So might it be wise to have some exposure to oil? Yes I would say it would be prudent to look at the sector, but there's no hurry. We've all year to begin research.


A bull market works like this in my mind. At the start, the blue chips do well (e.g. RDSB, BP. etc), then the mid caps (e.g TLW), and then at the end of the cycle, the juniors start flying (e.g.GKP). I wouldn't be looking at juniors right now, as they are likely to go bust or start going back to the market to raise working capital.


And what about Gold? Perhaps we need to see this have a bull run first, then it will be oil? Who knows.


Good Luck. We'll look back in 5 years, and realise this was a nice opportunity here, when oil is back up over $100! (Do your own research of course).

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The technical damage in a lot of charts has been done. I don't think I'll be looking to be buying or adding to anything for some time now. Maybe review the situation again in 3-6 months.

SP500 - Stage 4
NASDAQ - Stage 4
FTSE All Share - Stage 4
VT World Stock Index - Stage 4
Japanese Nikkei - Stage 4
CRB Index - Stage 4

Sorry to be a pessimist, but I've never seen it this ugly!

There's pretty nothing much in a up trend, apart from Cash. Gold looks like an emerging winner, but no confirming signals as yet. All I've seen is red - apart from Gold Stocks which have gained today.

I've some more bad news - this is not like 2008 because we don't have interest rates to drop or introduce QE. Each successive round of QE is not as effective. I suspect the central banks have fired their shots. The world economy IS IN BIG TROUBLE. We live in interesting times.

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New 1 year low


Chinese New Year falls on the 8th Feb, and it will be the year of the Monkey.


Occupying the 9th position on the Chinese Zodiac, the Monkey possesses such character traits as curiosity, mischievousness, and cleverness. Forever playful, Monkeys are the masters of practical jokes. Even though their intentions are always good, this desire to be a prankster has a tendency to create ill will and hurt feelings.

Although they are inherently intellectual and creative, Monkeys at times have trouble exhibiting these qualities. When that happens, they appear to others to be confused. But nothing could be further from the truth as Monkeys thrive on being challenged. Monkeys prefer urban life to rural, and their favorite pastime is people-watching.
The Monkey and the Five Elements



The Fire Monkey – 1956, 2016

The Fire Monkey is the most active and aggressive of the Monkeys. Naturally dominant, he automatically gravitates towards leadership roles and is competitive in whatever he is doing. He will need to be careful not to let this overwhelm him and turn into toxic jealousy.

He also constantly strives to be in control of whatever situation he is in, which can become overbearing. The main drive for whatever he embarks on is to head straight for the top and stay there. However, when he is in charge of a situation, his people skills kick in and he does nurture those under his charge who need it.

With his Fire energy, this agile, impulsive Monkey often leaps where angels fear to tread. This reckless behavior sometimes turns out to not be to the Fire Monkey’s advantage. However, he is very creative, dynamic and has a particularly good talent at drawing people to him – this often helps him get out of scrapes. He’ll leap from tree to tree – whichever has the most fruit at the time – then find the quickest, cleverest escape before others get to him.

In general though, the Fire Monkey is flamboyant and charmingly friendly, and has a large social circle.

Life Lessons:

The Fire Monkey’s aggression needs to be channeled correctly to correct and positive directions, or he risks become very destructive and harmful. If the Fire Monkey could develop more patience, it would be good for him and those who work with him The Fire Monkey also needs to think through his ideas before acting on them in order to safeguard his own interests.




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  • 2 weeks later...

Gold is flying.

The GDX gold stock index made a new 4 week new high (close about the Donchian Channel) - and so did the longer standing HUI.






Gold ETF



Gold Miner Rangold made a 2 year new high.
I did a comparison of the US listed stock miners - the strongest of the group is Agnico Eagle AEM. I did a 2 year comparison, and RRS is a stronger gold stock than AEM. LSE 1 NYSE
0! To bad it's £60 PER Share.
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  • 1 month later...

Daily talk of the Brexit is getting more and more in your face in the UK.


I am pretty sure the UK won't leave the EU, but for good measure the price of new Sovereigns is £212.75 (Bairds). I'll revisit the price some time after the EU referendum. An exit will likely devalue the £.


Odds from Paddy Power


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THE LONG READ: The fall of Xu Xiang - China's hedge-fund king

Saturday, April 16, 2016

He was China’s undisputed hedge-fund king – until the stock market bubble he helped create took him down with it, writes Alex W Palmer

At 10:33 am on Sunday, November 1 of last year, the highway police in Ningbo, an industrial city on China’s eastern coast, posted a seemingly innocuous message to their official microblog.

“Due to sudden traffic control,’’ the message read, ‘‘all the entrances and exits of the G15 Express way at Hangzhou Bay Bridge have been closed.’’ That weekend, Xu Xiang, one of the wealthiest men in China, had been visiting Ningbo, his home town, to attend his grandmother’s 100th birthday party.

As the founder of Zexi Investment, one of China’s most successful hedge funds, Xu had consistently produced returns that were truly unbelievable: His worst-performing fund had grown by nearly 800% in five years. He had also survived countless corruption investigations, market falls, purges and other scares. Yet even as his legend grew, Xu remained intensely secretive.



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UK Investor show.

There might be some complimentary tickets left at this link, if you go to this link




Unblock your email filter, as the ticket will be emailed.

FINAL is the promo code - I will be going, so let me know if you are too, perhaps meet up?

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I have come back with a warning, and a suggestion to prepare for the future. One must start to build up some cash because the rise in the stock market and bitcoin is heralding the end. I thought when Trump got in, the relentless rise of the stock market was because he was going to make "America Great Again". Maybe he is, maybe he isn't but the stock market rise is telling us to make money hay whilst the sun shines, because there lies something in the future.


A danger is building in fabric of the financial markets as we go higher and higher. We have already 2 pieces of the Jigsaw puzzle. One - a historic fact that people lost everything and became in debt in the 1929 crash. Two - reports that people are betting everything on bitcoin. LINK http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4971242/Father-sells-family-owns-Bitcoin.html




We have had the Paul Warburg moment from Jamie Dimon All we need is someone to write "Everyone Ought to Be Rich" or a shoe shiner boy moment.


I saw on TV an advert for a nearly new Mercedes the other day - a young lad maybe in his 20s getting the keys for it - does this sound crazy to you?




Remember there are bull and bear markets. What happens when Bitcoin goes down? This will be the first crack of the dam. People are going to sell liquid items to meet margin calls. Yes you can bet with leverage on Bitcoin in the UK via spreadbetting. This means the selling WILL spread to the stock market and people will sell stocks to raise cash. This means another liquidity crisis as people scramble to get out.


I don't know when this time will come, this could be 5 years out. Bitcoin could reach $50,000 and the NASDAQ 20,000 pts, But quantitative easing will not save us this time, and a real depression will occur as people will lose everything and then some. Bitcoins are not regulated by the government on regulated exchanges, nor can they be printed up by the FED to replace the "lost" ones. They are not backed by force like fiat money. There is none of the support infrastructure that fiat has, even with fiat's flaws. Gold's had 1000s of years of history, Fiat 100 years, Bitcoin, a decade.


Trump will not save us - he sees the rises as only a positive. What are the FED or Bank Of England doing about it? Enjoy the ride up, but be sure to be ready for the ride down!



Bitcoin Chart. The magnitude of the W bottom, gave us a symmetrical target of $6000. This may prove to be a temporary ceiling.


To the uber bulls, I have a pertinent question. How liquid is Bitcoin? If I wanted to sell $1,000,000 worth of Bitcoins now, how long would it take? Could I do it instantly? How many buyers are there right now?

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First house in the UK to be sold in Bitcoin

Ed Casson, group sales director, said: “Selling homes for Bitcoin will become common in the next five years.




Up the ante

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