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This week we play the commodities futures lumber trading game / simulation, and how we can use the possible Jessie Livermore system to beat it!

We also look at the indices, the S&P 500, the NASDAQ, Gold, and the CRB index. We have a look at the portfolio with our first pyramid on Macau Properties (MPO), and a probe position on the NASDAQ ETF (QQQ).

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A useful ETF list (traded in London)


All Commodities ETF USD AIGC
All Commodities ETF GBP AGCP

Physical Precious Metal ETF Basket USD PHPM
Physical Precious Metal ETF Basket GBP PHPP


Agriculture ETF USD AIGA
Agriculture ETF GBP AGAP

Soya Bean Oil ETF USD SOYO

Livestock ETF USD AIGL
Lean Hogs USD HOGS
Live Cattle USD CATL

Industrial Metals ETF USD AIGI
Physical Copper ETF USD PHCU
Physical Nickel ETF USD PHNI
Physical Aluminium ETF USD PHAL
Physical Zinc ETF USD PHZN

Natural Gas ETF USD NGAS
Heating Oil ETF USD HEAT

*Note some are not suitable for long term holdings, and you will need to find longer dated ETFs.

Full list on http://www.etfsecurities.com



If we look at the main groups (in bold), and then look at the strongest in that group...



The only sub group that is in a up trend is the livestock ETF (AIGL) and Cattle (CATL) looks interesting, lets see if it clears $10.



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Daniel J. Zanger is a technical stock analyst and equities trader. Having turned $10,775 into $18 million between June 1998 and December 1999,[1] he is the world record holder for the largest percent change for a personal portfolio for a 12-month period of time and an 18-month period of time in the history of the stock market. This success brought him coverage from Fortune, Forbes, and Stocks & Commodities Magazines.[2]
Personal history[edit]
Dan Zanger holds the world record for one-year stock market portfolio appreciation, gaining over 29,000%. In around two years, he turned $11,000 into $42 million.[3] Fortune magazine, December 18, 2000, wrote an extensive article on Zanger, covering his trading style and personality.[4]
Zanger grew up in the San Fernando Valley area of Los Angeles. His father was a physician & his mother was a psychologist. He started college but dropped out to snow ski for a few years in Colorado and Idaho. He had a few odd jobs, such as bell hop, cab driver & prep cook to support himself during his early twenties.
Eventually, he moved back to LA with no education and no professional trade. He started working for a landscape company and eventually got his California contractor's license. He ventured into pool building in Beverly Hills as an independent contractor where he made a modest living from then on.
His mother Elaine loved the stock market and Dan would often watch the Business Channel with her. One day in 1978 Dan saw a stock explode across the ticker tape at the bottom of the screen hitting $1. He made his first purchase and sold the stock a few weeks later at over $3. From that sale on, he was hooked on the action of the market tape, usually carrying a quotetrek with him on his contracting jobs to stay up on stock prices.[citation needed]
Personal computers and the stock market[edit]
In the late 1970s and early 1980s, personal computers began to revolutionize how traders analyzed the market. Dan bought his first PC and installed AIQ Trading Expert which could allow a single trader to review charts by the hundreds in a single night. He attended a seminar led by William O'Neil and this was a major turning point in his ability to select winning stocks. With the aid of PCs Dan studied chart patterns 25 to 30 hours per week learning to select stocks that would make big moves, before they moved.[citation needed]
The Internet bubble[edit]
As technology and internet stocks took center stage in the stock market in 1997, Dan began to see powerful moves underway. He sold his Porsche for approximately 11,000 dollars to have the necessary capital to jump fully into the market. Over the next year, he parlayed the 11,000 dollars into 18 million with the knowledge acquired over two decades playing the market and re-reading the works of William O'Neil.[5] With this success, Dan was able to become a full-time trader and leave contracting behind.
The Zanger Report and Chartpattern.com[edit]
In 1996 Dan produced a faxed newsletter called The Zanger Report which went out each night to several hundred beginning traders. He evolved this faxed letter into a new educational website called chartpattern.com in 1998 where daily stock charts highlight interesting patterns that traders could study and trade. This website now has thousands of members around the world and is in its 12th year providing services to industry market makers and stay at home traders alike.[citation needed]
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Dan's 10 Golden Rules

1. Make sure the stock has a well formed base or pattern such as one described on this web site and can be found on the tab "Understanding Chart Patterns" on the home page, before considering purchase. Dan highlights stocks with these patterns in his newsletter.

2. Buy the stock as it moves over the trend line of that base or pattern and make sure that volume is above recent trend shortly after this "breakout" occurs. Never pay up by more than 5% above the trend line. You should also get to know your stock's thirty day moving average volume, which you can find on most stock quote pages such as eSignal's quote page.

3. Be very quick to sell your stock should it return back under the trend line or breakout point. Usually stops should be set about $1 below the breakout point. The more expensive the stock, the more leeway you can give it, but never have more than a $2 stop loss. Some people employ a 5% stop loss rule. This may mean selling a stock that just tried to breakout and fails in 20 minutes or 3 hours from the time it just broke out above your purchase price.

4. Sell 20 to 30% of your position as the stock moves up 15 to 20% from its breakout point.

5. Hold your strongest stocks the longest and sell stocks that stop moving up or are acting sluggish quickly. Remember stocks are only good when they are moving up.

6. Identify and follow strong groups of stocks and try to keep your selections in these groups

7. After the market has moved for a substantial period of time, your stocks will become vulnerable to a sell off, which can happen so fast and hard you won't believe it. Learn to set new higher trend lines and learn reversal patterns to help your exit of stocks. Some of you may benefit from reading a book on Candlesticks or reading Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, by Bulkowski. These books can be found on our RECOMMENDED READING page on the website.

8. Remember it takes volume to move stocks, so start getting to know your stock's volume behavior and then how it reacts to spikes in volume. You can see these spikes on any chart. Volume is the key to your stock's movement and success or failure.

9. Many stocks are mentioned in the newsletter with buy points. However just because it's mentioned with a buy point does not mean it's an outright buy when a buy point is touched. One must first see the action in the stock and combine it with its volume for the day at the time that buy point is hit and take keen notice of the overall market environment before considering purchases.

10. Never go on margin until you have mastered the market, charts and your emotions. Margin can wipe you out.

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Daniel J. Zanger is a technical stock analyst and equities trader....




Yeah. This New Blog post has a similar message to your chart:


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I think a lot of people are waiting for the SP500 to clear that level (IF it will this time around), otherwise it will back off from it - but it has taken a lot longer to decide. I have been waiting for about 3-4 months now.


Another Dan Zanger video; but how he turned $440 to zero, before turning $11K to $18m!


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  • 4 weeks later...


1000s queue around the world for the iphone6!



iphone6 fever has gripped the world again!


^Regent street, London, interviews with people who have camped outside for days

^Starts 40secs in, the queue walk goes on forever, in Japan




AAPL shares are worth a look if it can hold and pass the $100 area.


They were pretty clever to have a share split before this launch - before it was wallowing in the $400 area. Now look at it, after the split:

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This week on Speculation Ville, we talk about the result of the Scottish Independence vote, and the effect of the markets and who might have voted for and against Independence. We also look at the mania surrounding the launch of Apple's (AAPL) new iPhone . We also look at the IPO of the giant chinese internet/retailer; Alibaba (BABA), and a possible junior me-too chinese internet retailer called JQW plc (UK:JQW). We look at the portfolio and how the internet and tech companies are doing well in the NASDAQ index, particularly Google (GOOG), and a UK traded stock called AudioBoom (UK:BOOM). We finally look at the indices; S&P500, the NASDAQ, the CRB commodities index, Gold, and Bitcoin.

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I have started a day trading show and have wound down Speculation Ville, as it hasn't been exciting enough for viewers. If anyone's interested, I am filming it live on some days with commentary. We're going to double the account or lose it all - one or the other must happen!


Yesterday, we managed to capture a nice move in the GBP/USD for over £1000 profit (demo money)



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Friday 10th October 2014 Spreadbetting, Forex
We day trade the cable GBP/USD and make a nice little profit on the morning volatility and downtrend.
Then we talk about the indices at 13m45s; The VT Vanguard World Stock ETf, the S&P 500, the NASDAQ, the FTSE All Share Index, The CRB Commodities Index, Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, Petrol, Bitcoin, and the four large supermarkets Tesco, Asda (WALMART), Morrisons and Sainsburys. We talk about how the discounters such as Lidl and Aldi are enjoying double digit growth and taking market share. We also talk about the possibility of CASH being in a new bull market, as the economy appears to be moving from inflation to deflation.
There are also mentions of Ebola, the German economy slowing down, and the ISIS activity in the Middle East, which appear to be affecting the markets.
(Hope that is OK to post this DrBubb)
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Lakeland NASDAQ:LAKE - Hazmat Suits


LAKE has seen some action, they are a small cap and make Hazmat suits - I've no position, but following this one.



Good spot. Likewise no position but noticed Bioquell (LSE BQE)had a smaller bump up last week, after a bad run. All on speculation one side of the business which provides decontamination equipment is likely to see a surge in business.


Slipped back today mind.

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Good spot. Likewise no position but noticed Bioquell (LSE BQE)had a smaller bump up last week, after a bad run. All on speculation one side of the business which provides decontamination equipment is likely to see a surge in business.


Slipped back today mind.


Thanks for the ticker symbol, I'll keep a watch on it.






Wow this moved from $20 to $29 in a day, and the big move came at the end of the session. I should have followed my own advice!
The next level is the $30 area.
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Do you chase stocks like that, cm-T?


If so, how do you protect yourself from volatility?

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I didn't climb on board on that one, but what I would probably do if it moved slower over a few weeks, rather than doing that move in one day. I would buy a small position, and pyramid on. That stock is too volatile.


That would be a day traders dream stock though - it fell near to the session close. A tail tell sign it was a day traders stock - they won't hold a highly leveraged position overnight.


So I would have ideally look at buying at 23 on a daily close, then have a stop at 18. Target 33 (raise stop to 28), add at 33 or put on a probe position, and target 43 and so on until it finished the trend. There was a couple of reasons why I didn't buy - I wasn't at my computer all day yesterday, and overall the indices are undergoing a pull back, so there are some headwinds for LAKE.

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What fundamentals could possibly keep a move like that going?


(Just asking - not criticizing)

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THIS was fun:


Flea Market and Charity Shop Bargain Hunt [Episode 1]



Reminds me of the UK.

There aren't many Charity shops in HK - rents are too high,

and HK people only want to buy new things

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THIS was fun:


Flea Market and Charity Shop Bargain Hunt [Episode 1]



Reminds me of the UK.

There aren't many Charity shops in HK - rents are too high,

and HK people only want to buy new things


Thanks for the recommendation! There are many second hand charity shops in the UK. The most I've seen ever.


I've been busy trying out new ideas on YT videos and selling my excess stuff on Ebay which seems to be shifting fast as we run up to Christmas. Since many shops have shut down, I think this is a real opportunity for small traders on the internet to sell unique items that shops such as Woolworths and the small electrical outlets used to provide. For example, in the New Forest, there isn't an electrical retailer for miles and miles - people have to order on the internet or travel 20-30 miles from the market towns to the large cities. Since the financial crash - if you are poor, the world has become a much larger place, as people are less mobile as public transport services have been cut. Royal Mail are now starting to say that delivering to the more remote parts of the UK is becoming too expensive.


I've left stock trading for a bit since the big correction. :D I had to fish out my password and login to GEI - it seems to forget it on this forum after a short period? So that is a barrier to posting? Do other members find this?


I've made a series of podcasts about trading "other" commodities such as retro video games and books too, I hope you enjoy them. https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLD7S9XBWt7cRtuxLYia6QOHdJ3R4BfWqU


Notably, we're heading almost back into full bull territory for stocks, and I will be more active in this area.


If the world stock index can clear 65



The SP500, is already above 2000, and for my mind to clear 2100 to be sure



The FTSE All share, the weakest of the three indices that I watch.


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This is a live crude oil chart, so it will change. So for the record, it is at $66 and the date is the 2nd December 2014
Look how the last swing low was broken ($90 area), and that was the end of the trend - so it went into a Weinstein stage 3, straight into a stage 4. The media are crying doom and even lower prices at this point in time ( $40 according to Bloomberg http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-30/oil-at-40-possible-as-market-transforms-caracas-to-iran.html ), but might this be a reversal sign? $60 is a key number, beneath that, we'd look to $50 and so on. No buy signal until a 2 year new high is made!
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With the troubles of the Rouble, Russian companies appear to be cheaper as you can get much more for your £.

But perhaps there might be more troubles ahead, with capital controls?


Companies for future reference, listed in London:

Gazprom [gas] (GAZ)

Uralkali [potash] (UKRA)

Evraz [steel, mining] (EVR)

Novorossiysk [commercial sea port] (NCSP)

Norilsk Nickel [metals] (MNOD)

Petropavlovsk [gold] (POG)

Urals Energy [oil] (UEN)

Zoltav [oil and gas exploration] (ZOL)

Highland [gold] (HGM)

PhosAgro [potash] (PHOR)

Ferrexpo [iron] (FXPO) (In Ukraine)

United Company RUSAL [Euronext exchange RUSAL]

Market Vectors Russian ETF (RSX)


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I've been selling some stuff on Ebay, and looked at other listings and the people who do it professionally.

I think you can learn about how markets work after looking at Ebay.

For example, let's say I have this rare object that is no longer produced, and likely never to be re-produced. Now if I want to get shot of it, I'd put it on auction for 7 days for 99p start. If it is a hot item, I might put it on for 3 days. A more illiquid item, possibly for 10 days.

If it is a very illiquid item, I might put it on for 30 days, with a "Buy it now", with the option to re-list for another 30 days for free afterwards. This option is key, because this is how all the very rare expensive items list.

Let's say I have a lock of hair from Elvis - it will take time to shift it, as not everyone is looking for a lock of Elvis's hair. How much is it worth? Maybe I could put it on the website for $10,000, Buy it Now. I might be the only one with that listing, in the whole world - this puts me in a very powerful monopolistic position, because I can name my price.

Now if there are no takers, then I have a problem after two months. During that time, I may visit Elvis collector forums to "market" that listing, and to drum up interest.

If I had two locks of hair, and I knew I couldn't shift them, I would only put one listing up, to test the market. I can see how many people visited the listing, and how many have added it to their watch list.

Another strategy, is to put one lock up, and then after a while, put the second up at $20,000, double the price - this would make the first listing seem cheap, and any "watchers" would feel more encouraged to buy. If I sold the first lock, $10,000 is now the market price I have set as a transaction as taken place. Maybe a few years ago, someone else sold the same item for $20 - but now I have raised the prices for the entire market for Elvis Locks.

If I had one lock, and I was not in a hurry to sell, I could take it off the market, and re-list at a higher price (something that is going on in the London property market). This would make watchers get up and buy as the market, that I fully control, is running away from them. This won't work all the time as higher prices will bring on more supply - another person might have a box of 50 locks of hair stored somewhere deep in the loft! They as a unsophisticated seller, could flood the market and the price will crash.

I have some more information about how the psychology of people at auctions work, I will post it later.

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