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Jesse Livermore How toTrade - and no it is not Reminisces of a Stock Operator. Good read, I'm halfway through it, and I take it is not well publicised. He gives details of trading using breakouts from new highs and position trading. He was not a day trader.


I am having a look at trying to convert the old charts in his book, which are starting from page 103 from his first edition of the book. I have had a quick look on the internet and I am not sure if anyone has attempted so far.


Here is an except from the book;


^notice how group action follows and confirms each other.


And I have transcribed the information into my spread sheet;




I have put all the price data into one column to try an piece together a chart that we can understand today.


For some reason at the start of the chart it is a "natural rally" and it is in blue numbers. I don't quite understand it at this moment in time. However, once it crosses $50 it becomes red, and in a downtrend. All round numbers are all potential pivotal points presumably. At no point in Chart One, he has identified any uptrends, this I agree on. There is no reason to go long. It would need to make a new high above $60 and clear all that congestion in the preceding days. When I have a bit more time, I will decipher the other charts, which are a time and price continuation of chart 1. There are 15 more, and on each there is one bethlehem steel stock, not just US Steel! One the final "key price" column he has combined the two stocks to create a "mini steel index". This could take a few days.


I note another forum member has posted about this http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=16592

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Billionaires Dumping Stocks

Despite the 6.5% stock market rally over the last three months, a handful of billionaires are quietly dumping their American stocks . . . and fast.


Warren Buffett, who has been a cheerleader for U.S. stocks for quite some time, is dumping shares at an alarming rate. He recently complained of “disappointing performance” in dyed-in-the-wool American companies like Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble, and Kraft Foods.


In the latest filing for Buffett’s holding company Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett has been drastically reducing his exposure to stocks that depend on consumer purchasing habits. Berkshire sold roughly 19 million shares of Johnson & Johnson, and reduced his overall stake in “consumer product stocks” by 21%. Berkshire Hathaway also sold its entire stake in California-based computer parts supplier Intel.


With 70% of the U.S. economy dependent on consumer spending, Buffett’s apparent lack of faith in these companies’ future prospects is worrisome.


Unfortunately Buffett isn’t alone.







Admittedly due to all these false breakouts (see Portfolio 2 further up these pages), Personally, I am forced to be about 80% in cash right now. Perhaps they know something I don't? Don't panic - follow those trade plans!


For the record, the FTSE All share had a Friday close at 3,331pts one and half hours ago - NEUTRAL

SP500 trading at 1,627pts (bullish until 1,600 is breached and we become neutral)




Did it start in the far east this time? Eastern stocks selling off http://www.greenener...=80#entry276699

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More interpretations of Jesse Livermore's pivotal points.



Turn the charts upside down for shorting and we look for 1yr or 2yr or all time new lows.

^My Interpretation of Pivotal Points.


I had a sleep on this...


I don't believe the charts of US Steel or Bethlehem Steel are required (however I shall complete the task I set myself), In the chapter "pivotal points", the answer is there on what to do.


"On another occasion, I recall waiting three weeks before starting to buy Bethlehem Steel. On April 7, 1915, it had reached its highest price on record $87*. Having observed that stocks passing a Pivotal Point gained rapidly, and being confident that Bethlehem Steel would go through 100, on April 8+ I placed my first my first order to buy and accumulated my line from $89 up to $99. The same stock sold up to a high of $117. It never halted in its upward flight except for minor reactions until April 13, or five days later, when it sold at a high of $155, a breath-taking rise. This again illustrates the rewards that go to the person who has the patience to wait for and take advantage of the Pivotal Points.


But I was not through with Bethlehem. I repeated the operation at $200 point, at the $300 point, and again at the dizzy peak of $400. Nor had I finished even then, for I had anticipated what would happen in a bear market, when the stock broke the pivotal points on the way down. I learned the main thing was to watch the follow-through as it crossed through the Pivotal Point. I found it was an easy matter for the me to turn around and get out of a position, when vitality was lacking after a stock crossed the Pivotal Point and there were many occasions when I reversed my position and went over to the short-side." p52 How To Trade In Stocks, Jesse Livermore


* New High breakout.

+ Looks like a Time stop.


So my interpretation would be to take the nearest round number when that new high was made. That would be $80 (or even $85, intervals of $5 round numbers, if the stock was not volatile) and have a stop not far from there just beneath. Accumulate stock where you can, but not too far from the new high. I would think it is about no more than 5% of the high price ideally. From other book readings, traders recommend to have a target price at least two times your risk (i.e. your average price that you have bought at, minus the stop price = the amount you are risking). As soon as your target is reached you can comfortably raise your stop to the next "pivotal point". Perhaps that would be $110 when Jesse Livermore's states that it reached $117, and so on,


I think this all the information one needs in raw terms on how it is done - psychology, position size is not included here. Now go forth young padawans, and use what you have learned!

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An update at a key milestone. Portfolio 1 closes with an average 15.8%+ gain! NCR was finally stopped out, and I can stick that in the hall of fame/shame locker. I can't say the same for Portfolio 2 - The 2013 gains are already in, as someone else has put it.




Aim for 30% Compound Annual Growth Rate


Power of Compound Interest!

Did you know $500 contributed yearly compounded at 25% for 27 yrs = over $1 million !

29% for 37 yrs. – George Soros

21% for 40 yrs. – Warren Buffett

30 % for 18yrs. - Steve Cohen

29% for 18 yrs. – Eddie Lampert

29% for 18 yrs. – Peter Lynch

24% for 13 yrs. – Jim Cramer

15% for 20 yrs. – Benjamin Graham

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30% is easy enough for 2-3 years, but very tough to make in the long run


I made a 10x gain for a friend/client over 3-4 years, and then wound up giving back over half in about one year


But I wish you all the best with your investing

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This is an interesting find - a history of the Dow Jones.







And Ferrexpo FXPO, at 144p, a iron miner. The breakdown is happening across these mining sectors.


What does this tell us? The world might be on the precipice of another sharp recession within this depression? World War 3? I can see why Jesse Livermore (despite the troubles with his son and family) ended it all in 1940. The realities outside the stock market are unimaginable.




I posted a chart here earlier (see above), if we take 1931 as 2008, and so on, 1936 as 2013....... I haven't worked the rest out IF history is to repeat, it doesn't look pretty. Can someone conjure up an economic boom please? Lets hope the next part of history does not repeat. Give us 1987.



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I may add the TLT as a probing sell - it looks interesting at 107. (or alternatively long TBT?).




25th June 2013


Sector round up hasn't changed much.




+50% NMX3720 Household Goods And Home Construction

Leaders BDEV, TW., RDW


+45% NMX2710 Aerospace & Defense

Leaders RR., QQ., SNR





- 88% NMX1750 Industrial Metals

Weakest FXPO, EVR


- 45% NMX1770 Mining

Weakest NWR, POG



SP500 1,588 currently neutral, Above 1,700 - Bullish, below 1,100 Bearish

FTSE ALL share 3,226 currently neutral, Above 3,600 - Bullish, below 2,600 Bearish

GOLD £807 /Toz, currently bearish, Above £1150 Bullish,

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This next one may not be popular, but Randgold Resources looks like the tide gone out and it is swimming naked, and vulnerable to the downside right now. This one starts at 4208p. Lets see if this one would get filled.

Look out below. RRS looks like the supporting pillars have been kicked away. Now 3984p

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Favorite UK Mining stock?

No, only because it got crazily overvalued during the heady heights of the gold bull market. The PE was something like 70+ at the time. This is isn't coming from me, this came from the mouth of shorter Evil Kinevil. Although I don't know what he is shorting right now - so don't quote me.


Why Randgold? Because, if you wanted to rush in and buy in on the gold story, the first thing you would type into as a EPIC with your stock broker is "GOLD". In the most basic terms, can one imagine 300m Americans getting on the phone to their broker? The population of the UK is about 60m, not even close. GOLD is the epic symbol for Randgold resources on the New York Stock Exchange, the biggest, most liquid, exchange in the world by a long chalk - See the graphic below. In the UK, Randgold is traded as RRS.


I was one the fools that bought in on Central Rand Gold CRND as a penny stock - like 2p a share, and at the time people said it would go to £60 a share like Randgold - even the broker made hints that it could be the next Randgold one day! CRND has had a share consolidation, and is sub 0.5p (probably) now. Can you imagine £1000 in CRND could be worth, well you work it out, - a lot of money if it got to £60 a share! I don't invest like that anymore thank goodness. The time to invest in pipe dreams, is not now as these juniors are going bust left right and centre.



^Remember this graphic! The NYSE is 5x bigger than the LSE. We're just small fry going with the current in the UK.

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I was goofing around on Youtube as you do and looking for videos about my local area, then I came across this:



^No big deal he's hanging off a crane in Ocean Village Marina, which is about a 15 minute drive from where I live. Some of those flats were recently built by Barratts ;) But go straight to 2 minutes in - your jaw will drop! Wow trader psychology must be disciplined and focused like this man!



When asked why he went up there to die, he replied:

"I didn't go up there to die. I went up there to live."

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Richard Smitten and his writings about Jesse Livermore


A rare mp3 interview with Richard Smitten in 2004, who has wrote most of the books out there about Jesse Livermore - http://www.financial...04/Smitten.html


Note: I do not agree with Richards Smitten's modern charts in his books as mentioned before further up this thread!* But there is a lot of useful information in the podcast - such as monitoring group action and a pair of stocks in the same group to confirm and cross check.


*EDIT - Richard Smitten admits in the interview he DOES NOT FULLY UNDERSTAND THE SECRET MARKET KEY AT THE BACK OF THE ORIGINAL BOOK WRITTEN BY JESSE LIVERMORE, I had a feeling he might say this! I believe his pivotal points for trend reversals ARE WRONG!

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I was goofing around on Youtube as you do and looking for videos about my local area, then I came across this:



^No big deal he's hanging off a crane in Ocean Village Marina, which is about a 15 minute drive from where I live. Some of those flats were recently built by Barratts ;)But go straight to 2 minutes in - your jaw will drop! Wow trader psychology must be disciplined and focused like this man!



When asked why he went up there to die, he replied:

"I didn't go up there to die. I went up there to live."


:o WOW! Scarey, reminds me of the guy that just walked tightrope across the G.C without a harness in 23 minutes.


Apparently he said it was worse than he thought, due to dust and windspeeds, he had to kneel down twice on the rope as the tension wasn't quite right, but at no time did he think he would fall!! Balls of steel.

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A ULTRA rare Book - The Stock Market Trading Secrets of the Late Jesse Livermore 1965 by C M Flumiani


I just found this Carlo Maria Flumiani - The Stock Market Trading Secrets of the Late Jesse Livermore 1965 - there is only one copy on sale, in the whole world and it is $60 on Amazon USA. It is not available on the UK Amazon site.


There is a limited portion (pages 21-51) of it as pdf here http://worldwide-inv...Jesse-Livermore I have not studied it yet, so I can't comment if there is anything I don't already know yet. To download you need to register, it is free though. I have not yet found a complete PDF out there.

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