rigger

BBC jsut quoting that the only two issues Trump beats Hillary on are fighting terrorism and the economy.BBC then went on to point out to interviewee that these are most americans top two issues

Bizarre,just watching the BBC and whilst Hillary and Trump compete to be the least liked and trustworthy. BUT on the issue of who can bring change Trump wins 82-13.........................................That's a stunning figure.

The resultis the result but I'm very wary of exit polls especially with potentially unpopular candidates like Hillary and the Don.

122 million 2004 131 mill 2008 129 mill 2012 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_turnout_in_the_United_States_presidential_elections

Exit polls can be hit and miss.Especially with an hour or two of voting left

That's very mich my view of things.But you can see the MSM doing a Brexit and talking the revolution down. Having outlined Trump's various routes to 270,he's nowhere near as out of it as they'd have you believe.

Trump on 164 Hillary 203 Toss Ups 171 So Trump needs 106 Florida (29) Ohio (18) Michigan (16) Pennsylvania (20) New Hampshire (4) Maine CD2 (1) Maine (2) North Carolina (15) Virginia (13) Georgia (16) Colorado (9) Nevada (6) New Mexico (5) Arizona (11) Iowa (6) Ohio+North Carolina+Georgia+Arizona +Iowa=66 I think if Trump loses any of these he's not going to win the second tier which in my opinion are knife edge Florida 29 +Colorado 9=35 Which leaves him needing 6 So New Hampshire,Maine,Pennsyvlvania,Michigan,Nevada Just watching Sky and the talking heads are all running Trump down.Someone even said his comments about women were more important than Hillary's email scandal.........seriously,he said some out of line things I get it,but what Hilary did was pontentially criminal.

Much like Brexit,the MSM theory was that it needed a low turnout to get a Leave vote.In actual fact the high turnout saved it. Hillary's inability to get a crowd tells me-unscientific I know-that she's someone who struggles to motivate voters to come out for her. edit to take out word 'not'

The maths is simple to me.If he loses Florida,then he needs to pick up Pennsylvania and Colorado. Don't get me wrong,if he loses Florida,it's going to be tough but paths are still open. Two weeks ago,he'd have been stumped,but Hillary heading to Michigan tell us it's real close.A lot closer than the bookies odds are implying imo.

Turnout 65% with a few hours to go...............

Turnout is reportedly high.This is all anecdotal stuff from tellers at the polling stations. Haven't seen anything official yet.

where are you getting this data?

http://www.11alive.com/news/local/trump-takes-32-25-lead-in-new-hampshire-after-midnight-voting/349662501 Trump ahead 32-25 New hamsphire :-)

I'm expecting a lot of Clinton skewed exit polls

Styx does a good one on Trump turning the rust belt red. 'if Trumps actions are any indicator his internal polling is painting a rosier picture than the MSM.The fact that Hillary is there two days before the election means Hillary's internal polling is telling her it's a tight race in Michigan.'

Very much so Garincho. Fascinating.Also worth considering that many people will vote for Trump who haven't voted in decades. Thats was why I believed Brexit would win.I knew loads of people in that category that rarely vote but were passionate Leavers.There could well be a core of these people that past vote weighting in the polls excludes from projections. Wow.............can't believe he's gone to Minnesota.Conway must think it's in play.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/09/23/trump-is-headed-for-a-win-says-professor-whos-predicted-30-years-of-presidential-outcomes-correctly/ Lichtman says 6/13 keys are false.I've been through it myself and I reckon 10/13 are false The keys, which are explained in depth in Lichtman’s book “Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House 2016” are: Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.-FALSE-they got crushed Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.-FALSE-Bernie Sanders was close Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.-FALSE-Obama isn't running Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.-FALSE-Libertarian's are running,Greens too Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign-TRUE Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.-FALSE-Ok the Govt figures say all is rosy.Reality,on the ground,may feel somewhat different for many people. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.-FALSE Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.-TRUE Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal-FALSE,I'd say HiIlary's email thing is a scandal. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.-TRUE Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.-FALSE Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.-FALSE-Hilary isn't charismatic Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.-FALSE-Trump is charismatic

http://insider.foxnews.com/2016/11/03/professor-whos-been-right-84-still-predicts-trump-victory Lichtmann sticks to his guns.Trump win.

http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/11/03/obama-donald-trump-will-tolerate-klu-klux-klan-elected-president/ 'President Barack Obama wants people in North Carolina to vote for Hillary Clinton, so he’s warning them that Donald Trump would tolerate the support of the Klu Klux Klan if he’s elected president. “If you accept the support of Klan sympathizers — the Klan — and hesitate when asked about that support, then you’ll tolerate that support when you’re in office,” he said' Things must be close if he's throwing the kitchen sink at it.

Sadly can't watch this due to work and time but I saw him speak last night and I really think he's developed as a speaker.He was a giving an ad lib piece in a speech and was telling the crowd how his advisers had been telling him not to ad lib.Very funny.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/01/donald-trump-leads-hillary-clinton-in-new-poll-in-wake-of-email/ 't will pour money into states like Michigan and New Mexico that Mrs Clinton has led for months, but where her renewed email scandal gives Mr Trump new hope of victory. Just days ago it was the Clinton campaign that said it wanted to "run up the score" by stealing Republican states like Texas from Mr Trump. A poll from Texas released yesterday by CBS/Dixie strategies showed Mr Trump back on firm footing, leading by 13 per cent. Mrs Clinton, meanwhile, is rapidly losing ground. Mr Trump hopes to capitalise, leaving the more well-trodden campaign trail in Florida and Ohio on Tuesday for Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, states which have voted consistently Democratic for decades but where the businessman is within striking distance. In Pennsylvania, won by President Barack Obama by five points in 2012, Mr Trump emphasised the economy. "Pennsylvania has lost almost 40 percent of its manufacturing jobs since Nafta, a deal signed by Bill Clinton and supported by Hillary Clinton," he said, promising a "fair deal" if he is elected. He lost out on a key endorsement in neighbouring Ohio, though. John Kasich, Mr Trump's rival during the fight for the Republican nomination and the state's governor, announced he had cast a write-in vote for Senator John McCain. Paul Ryan, the speaker of the house, revealed on Tuesday that he did vote for "our nominee", but declined to even refer to Mr Trump by name. The billionaire will not be troubled if other Republicans feel the need to hold their noses before casting a vote in his favour. He has expanded his pitch to independents and even fringe Democrats amid Mrs Clinton's email controversy, contending that the choice now boils down to him, or chaos. "We could be facing the very real possibility of a Constitutional crisis," Mr Trump said on Monday night in Michigan, suggesting that Mrs Clinton would find herself on trial during her presidency for jeopardising America's secrets. "We'd have a criminal trial for a sitting president," he claimed. Such is the shift in fortunes between the two candidates over the past week that the Clinton campaign had planned a grand victory celebration in New York for election night, complete with a fireworks display over the Hudson River. The fuses were set to be lit as early as 9:30pm, the New York Post reported, when polls will still be open in much of the US. It now appears likely that Mrs Clinton, even if she is ultimately victorious, will have to wait quite a bit longer to start the celebrations. Analysts at Moody's remain confident that Mrs Clinton will prevail, however. The final installment of the firm's electoral projections shows Mrs Clinton garnering 332 electoral votes to Mr Trump's 206, based in part on improving economic conditions and Mr Obama's popularity.'

It would of course ruin Michelle 2020.

Very interesting news http://dcwhispers.com/odd-michelle-obama-suddenly-deleting-years-tweets/ ' It appears First Lady Michelle Obama’s Twitter account has had about 3 1/2 years of tweets abruptly removed. The question now, particularly given the heightened scrutiny of Obama administration emails, is WHY? Has @MichelleObama deleted her tweets for the past 3 and a half years? — Paul Joseph Watson (@PrisonPlanet) November 1, 2016 A visit to the First Lady’s Twitter account verifies the above. All the tweets of the last 3 1/2 years are now gone. (Including all tweets related to her recent appearances with Hillary Clinton.)'

To refer to the OP,this is most definitely the most important US Pres election since Reagan,if not before.If trump wins it's a sea change in the culture in Washington

That's quite a compelling theory but given how quickly the media has turned,I think it makes a lot of sense.