rigger

lol.....These emails are a treasure trove,literally.They're severely going to dampen her turnout I suspect. She had a brief blip up in the polls in Ohio but generally Trump has been ahead. The interesting thing with that piece is that it demonstrates Trump's ability to cross old demarcation lines like no other Republican who entered Primary season 2016. People forget,that without Trump,the Reps/Jeb Bush would have got smashed.

Mish-who I love reading-has always had Libertarian leanings. This really is a Brexit vote on steroids.That's the nub of the trade,.Frank Luntz alluded to it in that Trump has made the Reps competitive in places they haven't been in years.At the same time he's lost traditional Rep support in places like Utah. I suspect most people have decided which way they're voting-Luntz agreed-it really all devolves onto turnout.I suspect a lot of Hilary support may stay home now given the Wikileaks revelations which would depress any Sanders supporter.Trump supporters in my opinion are more likely to turn out.I still think it's going to be close but it's going to get nastier yet. There a re a couple of women now claiming Trump groped them. On a personal level,you have to say that the pool of people willing to take on the Wall St Washington establishment is going to be even smaller in 2020.Trump has really given it a go.Kudos to him. I just thought of Obama 2008 and how hollow those words are now. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barack_Obama_presidential_campaign,_2008 Obama's campaign used the slogan "Change we can believe in" and the chant "Yes We Can".

mish calls it for hilary https://mishtalk.com/2016/10/11/trump-destroyed-trump-not-the-media-this-election-is-over/ ' Dave Stockman, Ronald Reagan’s former budget director told Fox News the “Media Destroyed Trump” and “This Election is Over” Is that the case? Stockman: “This election is over. Trump made a game defense of himself, enough to keep him in the race, but it is going to descend deeper into the gutter from here, than ever before in American history. And the people of America are going to be disgusted. And they’re not going to come out and vote. And a lot of them now feel free to vote their conscience and their conviction for the third party candidate. So Hillary will have no mandate. And I think that’s good. Because she stands for everything that’s wrecking this country. We’re gonna now have a crisis; there will be a market crash; there will be a recession. She will be a 45 percent politically-crippled mandate-less president, and we are going to finally show the American people that this fantasy that both parties have been projecting has to end. … I do not think she won the debate. I think the media destroyed Donald Trump as a candidate.” General Agreement There is very little I disagree with, until the final sentence. It’s pretty clear the election is over, but that was clear after the first debate. I would not go so far as to say the markets will “crash”, but that depends on the definition. I actually suspect more like a 40-50% decline over seven to ten years with nothing much worse than a 15-20% decline. No year may look like a “crash” but the end result for pension plans will be worse. Hillary certainly is damaged goods, but she will be able to damage the country with help of her Republican neocon friends who would rather see her in the White House than Trump. All things considered, that’s a lot of agreements. But, if a “crash” is coming, however one defines it, Donald Trump would not have stopped it either. Media Destroyed Trump? My main disagreement with Stockman is his statement “I think the media destroyed Donald Trump as a candidate.” Certainly the media tried to destroy Trump, but the media failed every step of the way. Trump Destroyed Trump It is Trump who destroyed Trump. The man finally imploded. Heading into the first debate, it was Trump’s election to lose, and he lost it with an amazing set of gaffes. When asked about taxes, he had an easy answer: “I pay may taxes according to the law, just as I presume Hillary does. Warren Buffet complained his secretary pays more in taxes than he does. But does Buffet voluntarily pay extra taxes? Does Hillary? If Hillary does not like the law, why didn’t she change it when she was a senator?” How hard was that? Why didn’t Trump ever bring up the Clinton Foundation? Why didn’t he press harder on Libya? In regards to the “birther” issue, all Trump had to say was “I changed my mind once I saw the birth certificate. Am I not allow to change my mind? Didn’t Hillary change her mind on the Trans-Pacific Trade Agreement (TPP)? Of course she did. She now agrees with me. If she can change her, mind why can’t I? Trump was asked several pointed questions. Hillary was asked none. Trump could have and should have, after the third pointed question, gone after the moderator with a comment “Doesn’t Hillary get any hard questions? Whose side are you on?” That would have brought lots of laughs. Such a response to the moderator by Trump would have required some quick thinking, but there is no excuse for Trump flat out not being prepared for the debate. Ahead of the first debate, Trump was one state away from pulling into the lead, and a moderately good debate would likely have done that. Answers like the above, easily worked out in advance, may have been a knock out blow to Hillary. Finally, and in regards to all the new sexual allegations, Trump should simply have said something along the lines “I made a mistake. So did Hillary when she married Bill.” The bottom line is the medial did not destroy Trump, his own arrogance, lack of humility, and total lack of preparation for the first debate did. Barring a medical or other type of disaster, this election is indeed over. I am voting for Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson. Mike “Mish” Shedlock'

post 2nd debate http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/ There was a marked boost for HRC and then she's dropped back since post 2nd debate For me the trade is the one Frank Luntz alluded to.It was the same working class revolution as won Brexit. The pollsters just aren't sophisticated enough to pick up such huge changes in one election given they are all generally past vote weighting. Luntz did say that Trump had made the Reps competitive in states they'd hadn't been competitive in decades

I dont want to tempt providence but it was just like before Brexit...virtually every branch of the BBC was telling us all how Remain was a shoe in. I once listened to the Jeremy Viner lunchtime show (had no choice in the matter) and he had a person from every country in the EU in his studio telling us all how brilliant it was. The BBC are the ultimate in Left wing hypocrisy,all the bullshit about equal opportunities and then the rich white liberals still run it. They love the EU because they love cheap servants.

BBC newsnight jsut running Trump's chances down lol........interview with Frank Luntz Luntz was quite sure that Trump won't win and he made the very valid point that if Trump had hidden away for 100 days he'd have walked the election as it would all have been about Hilary. He did say the only way Trump could win was that he was still ahead with working class people.Democrat lady clearly thought Hilary is going to walk it.

Rasmussen Clinton +4 national Florida Clinton +4 Wisconsin Clinton +7 Satisfactory polls imo.

Wikileaks starting to drip drip ......... http://freebeacon.com/politics/emails-podesta-listed-needy-latinos-hillary-call/ 'Hillary Clinton’s campaign chairman John Podesta lamented that the campaign needed endorsements from “needy Latinos” and called a former Hispanic governor “a dick,” according to newly released hacked emails.' http://dailycaller.com/2016/10/12/podesta-hacks-shows-clinton-staffers-discussing-which-emails-to-release/ 'A March, 2015 email chain shows three Clinton staffers discussing a House subpoena of Mrs. Clinton’s emails. The conversation took place roughly three weeks before a Clinton aide used software called “Bleachbit” to wipe her server clean.' http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/oct/12/dems-planned-fool-sanders-supporters-convention/ ' Newly released emails show former Democratic Party officials offering Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign detailed advice on how to trick “self-righteous” supporters of Sen. Bernard Sanders into thinking they won concessions from the party establishment. In the email released Wednesday by WikiLeaks, former party official Mark Alan Siegel is seen offering a proposal to reduce the role of Democratic superdelegates in future elections. While the proposal was sold to voters as an attempt to make the presidential nominating process more of a grass-roots endeavor, the email raises serious questions about whether the entire effort was just a ploy to satisfy disgruntled Sanders backers.' https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/clinton-campaign-blasts-trumps-scorched-earth-tactics-as-protesters-accuse-her-husband-of-rape/2016/10/12/7b8a6df2-908f-11e6-a6a3-d50061aa9fae_story.html 'As protesters accuse her husband of rape, Clinton blasts Trump’s ‘scorched earth’ tactics'

All betting carries a risk obviously. I too thought Jo Cox murder was a game changer but stuck to my original trading plan as there were plenty of indicators that the polls were substantially wrong. This is a risky trade but that's why you get 6+ on BF. My plan is trading a straight Trump win.I don't bet on individual states for the simple reason the liquidity isn't there and I'm struggling to be able to square the action in state polling which carries some inconsistencies.Trump's win could come in a variety of forms-if it comes at all.He could well lose. fascinating threads on here without all the weak kneed liberal types from PB.com. edit to add I do not see a trump win as guaranteed

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/10/12/punters-continue-to-desert-trump-as-do-more-leading-republicans/ 'The embattled GOP nominee is continuing his fight even though leading Republican figures are in effect disowning him. He’s now as likely to focus his anger on his own party as Hillary Clinton. He’ been particularly venomous about the leading Republican in Congress, Paul Ryan. Inevitably the betting has continued to move away from him. Just 16 days ago he was a 35% chance on the Betfair exchange – that’s now down to just over 15%. But his following remain enthusiastic and fired up and you can see a post-November 8th scenario when the party leadership is seen as having betrayed the legitimately elected nominee. For the Republicans the worry is the impact Trump will have on the other elections particularly the fiercely contested battle for it to retain control of the Senate. At the moment I’m trying to identify new betting opportunities.' Mike Smithson of PB.com wetting his pants.He previously stated he got on Trump in July. Maybe he's wise,maybe he's not,but it goes to show that you need a strong stomach for betting. Previously with Brexit,I got on a month or two before and held through to the end.I did however,duck out of adding more when 10/1 was available on the day. Trump is not a trade for thee faint hearted but as I alluded earlier,he only needs to be within the margin of error in the swing states for you to get a good run for your money. Fascinating times. DYOR lol.

Yep,just like Brexit,he's gained the support of people who want to kick the Washington establishment in the balls. Look at his coalition-people who hate Hilary+people worried about illegal immigration+ gun owners+ people against TIPP and NAFTA+.........etc etc.That's a lot of people. Currently,Trump is 6.4 but my personal view now is that he'll get wider before the election and you'll get even better odds on him winning Ohio,Florida,Penn and North Caro because,pretty much,that's what you're taking a punt on.He's a lot closer-even now-in the key swing states than those odds would imply.

There's no limit on betfair.It's like a stock market of speculators. Personally,I use Betfair,as even with their commission the prices are better than the High St bookies(who probably all cover on BF anyway)

Brexit in the last month was roughly around the 3 mark ie 2/1 in normal odds. On the day,you briefly could have got 15. Obviously if you got in at that level there would have been plenty of opportunities to lay it off at lower levels. Personally,I've not added to my 3.8 yet,I'm going to wait till nearer the day.3.8 was value until that tape was released.With Trump there's always the potential for more chaos. Having said that,there was an RCP poll with Trump 4 behind in Pennsylvania http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5964.html And one Monday with him one behind in North Carolina. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nc/north_carolina_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson-5951.html my rule for this election is that if Trump is within the margin of error,then he's likely in with a shout.As per Brexit,his voters will vote.If anything the loss of the support of Paul Ryan confirms his anti establishment credentials and may get more non voters. Must be a hard job trying to poll Trump given the likelihood of people to deny supporting him and his probably support from long time/off the radar voters-much like Brexit.

Super interview,just listening now.

And again by Reuters http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-11/first-post-debate-poll-gives-hillary-significant-lead-and-familiar-problem-emerges 'In yet another poll the distribution of the of those questioned leans substantially to the left, as follows: Democrat and Democrat leaners 44% Republican and Republican leaners 37% Independents 12%'

http://www.infowars.com/cnn-rigs-its-own-poll-again-to-claim-clinton-won-the-debate/ Interesting abuse of polling by CNN

http://www.breitbart.com/video/2016/10/07/biden-tells-rally-crowd-i-know-some-of-you-are-not-crazy-about-hillary/ One of the most surreal minute and half's in my time watching politics. ......I know you don't like Hilary but please get your neighbour to vote for her...........................

I've underlined what I feel is the most salient point of an excellent article. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-06/i-listened-trump-supporter-now-i-understand 'I talked at length with a Trump supporter I grew up around. I wanted to understand. I respected her growing up. I wanted to know why a person as kind and compassionate as I remember her is voting for someone like Donald Trump. She was a family friend, a good person. In rural Ohio, everything was tight. Money, jobs. If you really needed quick cash, she’d put you to work doing landscaping. She’d pay fairly and reliably for the area. She’s voting for Donald Trump. I disagree with her choice, but I understand why she rejects Clinton so fiercely, and why she’s been swept up in Donald Trump’s particular brand of right-wing populism. I feel that on the left, it’s increasingly easy to ignore these people, to disregard them, to write them off as racists, bigots, or uneducated. I think that’s a loss for everyone involved, and that sometimes listening can help you to at least understand why a person is making the choices they make, so you can work on the root causes. For her, the root cause isn’t racism. In fact, I remember her as one of the only people in the area who proudly hired black workers, in a place where that was a huge issue. She fought over that choice. But that’s enough background. Let me relay a bit of what she told me. She’s a person who built her business from the ground up. She wasn’t rich, but was very comfortable for the area. She had a nice house, a nice car, and was stable. She achieved the American dream of not having to struggle. Things changed during the housing crisis. A landscaping business requires customers who need landscaping, and people who don’t own homes just don’t need landscaping. In some of these neighborhoods, one in five people lost their homes. That almost immediately turns a successful landscaping business into a struggling one. Then there was a domino effect. She couldn’t pay for her lawn-care equipment leases and loans. That hurt her work efficiency. Then, she lost her car. But that didn’t stop the payments. Then, she lost her house. She slowly had to let go all of her employees, until it was just her, hand-mowing lawns for cash the way you might expect a high school student in the summertime. She told me that every week, it seemed there was another default letter, another foreclosure, another bank demanding more blood from her dry veins. To her, that pile of default notices and demands for payment looked suspiciously similar to Hillary Clinton’s top donor list. She lost everything she worked so hard for. Obama swore he was going to help. The Wall Street bailout did seem to help Wall Street. But it did absolutely nothing for her. She turns on the news and sees how the Dow Jones is doing better than ever. But that didn’t bring her house and livelihood back. Liberals insist that Obama’s made her life better. But, now she’s driving a car that falls apart randomly while having to pay those same banks for a car she doesn’t own and never will. It’s difficult to convince someone whose life is objectively worse that their life is better. And it’s disingenuous to try. You can break down the specifics, sure. But when someone’s hungry, and you’re busy silencing their complaints by telling them how well world hunger is improving, you’re just going to upset them. This is not a person who is stupid or racist. She knows Bush caused the economy collapse with his irresponsible tax policies and wars. But she saw liberals as fighting for the banks’ recovery, to hell with her needs. She sees in Hillary someone who celebrates that approach. Who measures US success by the success of multinational mega corporations?—?corporations who undercut and destroy local businesses. This is a person who grew up in a town with a friendly neighborhood general store, a locally-owned hardware store, farmers’ markets, florists, and auto shops. All of these businesses closed when Walmart moved into town. All their owners now work at that Walmart for a fraction of their previous wages, no benefits, and no hope for something better, something of their own. And now, she sees a free trade supporting former Walmart executive about to come in to office, and it feels like salt in her community’s wounds.'

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/ Polls of note today New Hampshire Clinton +2 =Trump within margin of error Michigan Clinton +11 HRC improving Florida-two polls one either way Nevada-Tie Arizona-Clinton +2 Rhode Island/Maryland-HRC out of sight National Rasmussen reporting Trump +2.............

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch_oct05 Trump +1 Rasmussen via Drudge

http://heatst.com/politics/genderless-tim-kaine-in-vp-debate-promises-to-be-right-hand-person/ Kaine had a bad day at the office but this sort of thing lingers on...

Trump still way behind Obama,but then whatever he may have been,he was popular.

http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/09/donald-trump-small-dollar-donations-fundraising 'Less than three months have passed since the Trump campaign launched its e-mail fund-raising campaign at the end of June, but despite the late start, Trump is rapidly narrowing in on $100 million in small-dollar donations, if he has not already passed the threshold, Politico reports, citing Federal Election Committee filings, Trump campaign statements, and people close to the candidate’s fund-raising operation. Comparatively, McCain and Romney raised less than $64 million from small donors during the entirety of their 2008 and 2012 presidential campaigns, respectively. “I’ve never seen anything like this,” a Republican operative who has worked with the campaign told Politico. “He’s the Republican Obama in terms of online fund-raising,” he added. The $100 million in small-dollar donations is a record-setting total for a G.O.P. nominee. http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/09/boom-trump-campaign-raises-5-million-immigration-speech/ 'The Trump campaign raised $5 million after his immigration speech in Phoenix, Arizona on Wednesday. Breitbart.com reported: Donald Trump’s campaign digital director Brad Parscale said that the campaign raised more than $5 million dollars worth of small online donations, under $200, in a single day, not counting donations sent by mail or phone. The amount is reportedly a new daily record for the campaign.' Trump raised $37 million in July, with 64 percent coming from small-dollar donors. Hillary Clinton raised $63 million, with only 36 percent of her campaign’s donations totaling less than $200.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html Rasmussen poll.Clinton by 3%. Within margin of error. Electoral college anomalies clearly going to be key. Doc,have you any polling data re ethnic minorities?Are there any good websites for this sort of data?

http://news.sky.com/story/trump-calls-on-farage-to-sit-in-at-next-presidential-debate-10603901 Farage,getting more involved.Saw a Sky news GOP commentator say that in the USA Farage is regarded as a world statesman.Obviously,she was quick to imply she wasn't a Trump fan. Going to be interesting to see the size of the underpolling of Trump and if there is any.