rigger

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nm/new_mexico_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-6113.html Interesting to see New Mexico going to toss up status on RCP That number for Johnson must be an outlier,or possibly a sign of big trouble for HRC as millenials abandon her.

Takes two sides to make a trade viable. Polls are a guide but as Brexit,and GE 2015 showed,they are no more than that as a predictive tool. .I'd vote Trump if I was a US citizen but when it comes to cash I'm unemotional about it.If I thought Hilary was value at 1.4 I'd be backing her. Trump is a risk,I just don't think he's a 3.85 risk. Edit to add If you're right on the 67/33split then I presume you're piling onto HRC at 1.4? Do you think that's value?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-01/virtue-signaling-or-why-clinton-trouble Dont know if this has been posted on GE yet. 'As a lifelong Democratic voter, I’m dismayed by the radical left’s ever-growing list of dos and don’ts — by its impulse to control, to instill self-censorship as well as to promote real censorship, and to deploy sensitivity as an excuse to be brutally insensitive to any perceived enemy. There are many people who see these frenzies about cultural appropriation, trigger warnings, micro-aggressions and safe spaces as overtly crazy. The shrill tyranny of the left helps to push them toward Donald Trump. ? Lionel Shriver, The New York Times “Will the Left Survive the Millennials?”,23/9/16' 'I did not break up the Beatles. You can’t have it both ways. If you’re going to blame me for breaking the Beatles up, you should be thankful that I made them into myth rather than a crumbling group. ? Yoko Ono (b. 1933)' 'I was in Los Angeles last week, and the Clinton anti-Trump TV ads were in heavy rotation. It’s not because the Clinton campaign is worried about the California vote, because if they were then the election would already be irredeemably lost. No, the ads are being run in the metro LA area so that Clinton supporters (and donors!) can feel good about themselves. It’s like throwing a massively expensive dinner party to congratulate yourself for all the money you’ve raised to feed the poor. If you’ve ever played a team sport, you’ve experienced a game that was a mismatch on paper. Now usually that game goes according to form. The better team scores early and often, and the inferior team doesn’t sniff a win. But sometimes the game gets tight. Sometimes the better team makes a few unforced errors, and the inferior team capitalizes. Sometimes there’s a lucky bounce of the ball for the inferior team. And then another. And another. There’s a moment in every game of this unexpected type — the upset in the making — when the individual players on the better team (call them the status quo team) begin to doubt. They feel the game slipping away, even though they know that they’re the better team. What happens to many players in that moment of doubt is, to use the game theoretic phrase, they decide to defect. It doesn’t mean that they quit. It doesn’t mean that they give up. In fact, without exception, they all believe that their team will still prevail. But they start to think about what a loss, however improbable, would mean for their personal, individual goals. They never even entertained those thoughts at the beginning of the game. It was all about the team, and a team victory would naturally go hand in hand with personal development and personal goals. But now … now that the unthinkable is suddenly thinkable … they start acting directly in favor of their own self-interest, not the team’s communal interest. They start signaling their virtue. Virtue signaling is a behavior that visibly demonstrates the individual qualities of the player to some external audience, whether or not it improves the chances of the team to win. It’s not overtly detrimental to the team. In fact, for all outward appearances it’s rather supportive of the team. But it makes all the difference in the world if an offensive lineman is more concerned with making HIS block than protecting the quarterback no matter what. It makes all the difference in the world if a shooting guard is more concerned with meeting HIS scoring average than playing team defense. It makes all the difference in the world if a Democratic Party functionary is more concerned with tweeting HIS outrage at the latest nonsense that Trump is spouting than in volunteering for a get-out-the-vote effort in Greensboro, North Carolina. Virtue signaling is an attempt to have your cake and eat it, too. If the team ends up winning … hey, I did my part. Didn’t you read that blistering anti-Trump op-ed piece I oh-so bravely penned in The New York Times? If the team ends up losing … hey, don’t look at me. Didn’t you read that blistering anti-Trump op-ed piece I oh-so bravely penned in The New York Times? It’s an entirely rational set of behaviors that seeks to insulate yourself from the inevitable blame game if things go wrong (the infamous circular firing squad of American party politics, particularly on the Democratic side) while still preserving your place in the victory parade if things go well. If you follow football closely, you’ll hear a phrase that players and position coaches use in an entirely positive light: selling out. They don’t mean a sell-out in the way the phrase is generally used, either as a full house in terms of ticket sales or, pejoratively, as a person who’s chosen money over authenticity. No, they mean it as a compliment. When you sell out on a play or a coach’s game plan, it means that you commit fully. It means that you are prepared to embarrass yourself by your single-minded pursuit of a team victory. It’s the absolute opposite of virtue signaling, and there is no higher praise for a teammate than to say he “sold out” in a game. I see no one willing to “sell out” for Clinton, and that tells me that, in a close game, she’s in a lot of trouble. If Clinton were an NFL quarterback, she’d be Jay Cutler of the Chicago Bears, a player who is infamously difficult for his teammates to support or rally around. No one has ever sold out for Jay Cutler. Now in his 11th season, Cutler’s teams have made the playoffs once. Once. What I DO see for Clinton is virtue signaling galore among her supporters, including her own campaign staff. It’s the fact checking fetish. It’s the TV ad spend in safe states. It’s the damned-with-faint-praise and passive-aggressive endorsements. It’s the passion reserved exclusively for “outrage” over Trump’s intentionally outrageous statements and utterly absent for anything Clinton says. It’s all designed to signal to your tribe that you’re a good person because you’re against Trump. It’s not completely uncorrelated with getting Clinton elected … it’s not counter-productive, per se … but it’s not very productive, either. Why not? Because this is a turn-out election. The winner of this election will be whoever can get more of their tribe to the polls in swing states: Colorado, North Carolina … maybe Nevada … maybe one or two others. Period. This is not an election that will be decided by influencing undecided or “lightly decided” voters one way or another, because all of these voters are staying home on November 8th anyway. It’s an election that will be decided by motivating your base. Can fear of Trump motivate? Sure it can. But if Brexit taught us anything, it’s the limitations of a fear-based campaign, at least when the fear-mongers are the same smarter-than-thou elites who tsk-tsk their deep and abiding concern for the benighted masses from Davos or Jackson Hole. Status quo candidates don’t win on fear alone. They’re not the anti-party. There has to be a reason … a why … an anthem for rallying the troops. And that’s what’s missing from the Clinton campaign, in exactly the same way it was missing for Teddy Kennedy in 1980 and Michael Dukakis in 1988. It’s impossible to overstate the human animal’s ability to rationalize an abdication of principle when his tribe showers him with disdain. It’s impossible to overestimate a political animal’s love of winning over anything else, including integrity. I mean, it’s amazing how Ted Cruz was delighted to be the standard bearer of the in-party opposition so long as it looked like Trump was going to be trounced. But then the polls turned up for Trump, and Cruz falls all over himself doing his best Chris Christie imitation. Just goes to show, there’s no mockery like self-mockery.'

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nv/nevada_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson-6004.html worth noting Nevada is the only place with two polls out since the first debate.Obviously,small samples,don't read too much into polls etc but any bounce for HRC has been short lived. DT is 3.85 on BF......nearly 3/1....

GOP last won it in 1988,Bush jnr got within 6% in 2004.Since then it's been 15% plus Dem wins.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nj/new_jersey_trump_vs_clinton-5872.html New Jersey Clinton vs trump and she's ahead by 6.Including Johnson you're probably looking at 4% poll lead,suggesting to me race is still neck and neck.No wonder bulk of Republican establishment getting behind Trump.Been a long while since they were competitive there.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/ Nothing but the LA times tracking poll showing no chink in the momentum for Le Donald. Polls should start trickling in tmrw.

The loss of upper middle class support is nothing compared to the inroads Trump is making in Maine/New Jersey/New Hampshire/Independents/non voters.The GOP lost Maine last time by 18%. As with Brexit,poor people outnumber the well off multiple times over.

I'm not predicting a Trump win but he's incredible value at the minute in my opinion and the market isn't reflecting his polling improvement over two months.

I have a range of bets placed on Betfair between 5.2 and 3 that average at around 3.8. I set my limit for my initial outlay and am going to reassess with a week to go. I'd be happy to sit on this bet but the longer this lingers on with his odds refusing to budge much below 3,the more chance I think there is of possibly getting some 5+ bets on the day.The only way these markets can be staying this far out is if some Hilary backers with deep pockets and an emotional attachment to her candidacy are keeping him out at 3. Good piece here via Drudge https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/poll-clinton-trump-in-virtual-dead-heat-on-eve-of-first-debate/2016/09/24/b99c95de-81cb-11e6-8327-f141a7beb626_story.html Just look at Maine where Romney lost by 15% in 2012 and the polls(which generally favour Hilary) have some touching 3%. New Jersey was an 18% Obama win in 2012 with a recent poll having Trump 4 behind.This isn't even what's defined a battle ground state by RCP

Trump ahead in latest polls in Colorado 3%,Iowa 8%,Ohio 3%,Georgia 5%,Nevada 2% Only 3% behind in Michigan,Maine and Virginia... http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/ 2,95 on Betfair.Was 5.2 a week or two back

I keep saying it,incredible. The independents vote is key as I suspect many Reps will just vote for Don in the end.I suspect many first time voters will pick him.

Just to add these places weren't even vaguely in play last time.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/ I'm sure discussed already but trump four short in New Jersey and Rhode Island

Crucially,he's cut her lead in Penn and Vriginia to less than 55.According to RCP he's 1% behind in Virg which is incredible given he has been as much as 10%+ behind there. Also closer in Wisconsin .Ahead in North Carolina,Arizona(as expected) http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/

https://twitter.com/BraddJaffy/status/772104571921412097 Sorry if already posted somewhere.HT Drudge. Incredible Trump speech at Black church in Detroit. Humble,admitting there's problems and looking for solutions. Incredible.Hilary should be very worried.Once minorities realise that Wall St shill Hilary is their enemy and not their friend,it's over. The MSM should hang their heads in shame.

Monday polls 29/8/16 http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5964.html Don closes to 3 down in Penn...........stunning but needs a few more http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/oh/ohio_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5970.html Ohio-tie............wow.. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-6008.html Michigan,,,down 5.....but still better than a week or two back http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/az/arizona_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-6087.html Arizona he's lost some ground. All in all there's some really good news in there if hes sustained around those levels given the way hell be underreported Trumpnow 4.3 on Betfair.

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-08-29/trump-plans-to-bring-outreach-to-black-audience-in-detroit 'Donald Trump is planning to visit Detroit next weekend to make his first appearance before a predominantly African-American audience as his campaign makes a bid for support from black voters. Trump will visit the Great Faith Ministries on Saturday in Detroit, a predominantly black church located in the heart of the city, said Pastor Mark Burns, a Trump supporter who arranged a meeting between the Republican presidential nominee and the church’s leader, Bishop Wayne T. Jackson.'

Good to see him punch back. His ad spend is increasing.He's timing his run in well.

Another reason not to put money on Hillary at 1.3.

Agreed,and crucially shes out of practice unlike donald whos been facing a hostile press every day.

http://info.lonres.com/rs/147-UIS-364/images/LonRes%20Residential%20Review%20Summer%202016.pdf?aliId=501759 Q2 2016 was apparently down 40% yoy.Overall H1 was 25% down in terms of transactions

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/ Gravis poll today has Don 1 behind. Ignoring outliers hes about 3 points behind ------doing my maths,I have him even or ahead by 2 nationally.Still doesn't allow for electoral college.

I think the bulk of polls in the USA are phone polls...I could be wrong.When polling Trump or Farage you really need online as people lie less. The problem with the UPI iirc is that the participants are self selecting. My basic maths at the minute is to take the phone polls,discount the outliers and add 3-5 to Donalds score.Still a large margin for error.

Which is why I view a Donald trade as a Brexit style trade. Look at the areas that voted for Leave and they were generally the areas where most migration had occurred eg Lincolnshire. I suspect there will be a number of ethnic minorities who see through the Democrats plans for them as cheap labour for Goldman et al.Just like the British working class saw through the Parliamentary elite's scare tactics over Brexit.As someone so rightly pointed out to me during Brexit when I questioned whether Leave would win,and I paraphrase: 'Anyone who thinks Remain will win isn't being realistic.Anyone over 60,anyone who has lost a job or seen their wages cut as a result of competing with East European labour,anyone struggling to see a doctor,anyone struggling to get their kid into a half decent nearby school and anyone whose rents have gone up will be voting Leave.That's a lot of people.' Apply the same logic to Trump and you come up with 1) anyone who has seen their wages come down or lost a job to Nafta 2) anyone who lives in an area with high illegal immigration pressuring services and schools 3) etc etc A key point to note about Brexit is that even areas with high immgration eg Leicester where over half the population is ethnic minority,only voted Remain by a narrow margin-it was 71,000 to 69,000.Take away the student vote circa 10,000 based on 30% turnout and Leave won in Leicester. This was despite the media onslaught against Farage and the Leave campaign being racist.The reason is simple.The people whose kids are in schools where English is a second language voted Leave,The people who couldn't get their aging mum into a GP voted Leave. And yet the pollsters failed to see it coming. I remember hooking up with a second generation West Indian friend during the run up to EU ref.He'd only voted once in his 50 years and yet when I asked him about EU ref he started telling me how the working class was rising up and gonna take the country back.I jsut went home and put more money on Leave,The simple reality being that the pollsters were never going to be picking him up.