kernull

here are the key prices for monday:

Not yet the top in the dollar, but close to

Ker, I am wondering what you make of this chart?

remember that market always price future expectations. when you sell december contract, is that you think that in december prices will be lower. Current prices for physical are just fine, they were priced months before. Dealers (goldmoney, BV, coin dealers) will not be losing money just because market expects lower prices in the future, they will sell their inventories at the price that will allow them to make profits. Otherwise, they will say you "there is no gold", and what they really mean is "there is no cheap gold yet because i bought it more expensive than the actual spot price"

I went to bed yesterday thinking about narco's suggestion of bouncing from the old trendline, and I also listened to Bob Hoye, and Tom O'Brien forecasting bottoms and new highs, but I reverified again this morning on the weekly chart, and I did not find any bullish sign. Yes, maybe we could get a bounce, but it should not go past 820. The long-term patterns are weighting too much. Check this chart:

Nice charts. Have you looked at this old trendline. Any thoughts on this holding? The september move to $740 looks like it just needed to pay some fibonacci respect.

Thanks, yes, I looked at it, but I do not give it much weight because it is an old trendline, and the best thing is to use as fresh data as you can. Sure, it can hold for a while, but... I think that stock markets will put another low on tuesday, and this will be the real bottom, because i still hear a lot of people calling the bottom on stocks, and that is influencing the dollar a lot. I have to study stocks and other commodities this weekend, to see if they have any dump pattern comming.

Ker,

 

I'm really enjoying your charts (even though I don't like what's being shown at the moment ).

 

Keep up the good work, it's very much appreciated

 

EDIT: I've changed my mind. I like what I am seeing. I have some dry powder in BV and a fall like the one on your chart will do me nicley

thanks! I have made a bit more precise aproximation of the bear trend. if it does confirms the down move on tuesday, it will likely to happen this way:

(spent about 2 hours making it, really though work!)

I dont think we'll see 650 again, the PTT will step in to make sure my savings aren't wiped out...

hmm, no, that's not 650, thats around 680, but it's a projection only, when we get close to that timeframe we will precise it

I dont think we'll see 650 again, the PTT will step in to make sure my savings aren't wiped out...

hmm, no, that's not 650, thats around 680, but it's a projection only, when we get close to that timeframe we will precise it

Im no chartist, but for a channel, you sure don't have much graph in it...

what do you mean?

some more analysis:

tomorrow we might have a bear market rally to retest the 820 and monday / tuesday start the downtrend to lows

i am sorry:

is this still valid given that gold broke 800?

nope, not valid anymore. now more likely it will go to 750 ...

i have to watch it.

if i judge by gold only, we should reverse in the dollar and bottom in commodities on friday:

edit: stocks & oil may put a lower low on thursday

i just watched a bit more at my chart, and i see the low of the channel is located in the time frame of tomorrows NY opening, so this is probably to happen:

1. stocks likely to put new low tomorrow (and it may be it, the bottom)

2. dollar to make a (new or not new) high

3. gold to make another failed breakout and bashed down to 820, or even 810

all this to ocurr between 8 and 12 NY time

it may not happen this way, but if it does, then it is more likely scaring people out of their positions, than going to 750

if i judge by gold only, we should reverse in the dollar and bottom in commodities on friday:

edit: stocks & oil may put a lower low on thursday

short term update

we are going lower on gold, but not that much

I feel you are very right. i am too busy to follow and understand any news at the moment, and its all happening so so so quick. Something about brown buying bank shares today;I have no idea what it means. I cant keep up, as soon as i understand this there will be more tomorrow. ;But its so simple to have gold

So today watching the tv news;

has gordon brown saved the world with his policies? The news says yes, I think there's worse to come; it could all backfire horribly.

you know, i don't watch the news on the TV anymore, I read articles, blogs and etc... this is how I stay away from fear, panic and stuff like that.

this is IT! te best buy time. I am all in, gold, oil, silver. Silver is more bullish than everything, it may surprise with a spike. Just watch for the close, we must close higher, if not, we are going to keep testing tomorrow. do not put stop in profits, accept the risk, otherwise your position will be wiped out by the market sharks, waters are turbulent.

excelent find!

December 2008 gold options indicate $1200 as the favourite - time to load up?

 

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?p...-10-2008_pg5_11

 

http://data.tradingcharts.com/futures/call...2008-10-10.html

It's amazing to see silver drop like that when gold isn't !

it looks like a false break down/manipulation to get cheap silver by the big guys, market is a real jungle, check this out:

I say again that although Ker is doing a lot of thinkin garound this the 200 week moving average is meaningless.

yes, that was wrong, forget it. for a weekly 65 period and for a monthly 16 period exponential moving averages are looking good. later i will tune this numbers to predict the big gold take off, because this is going to be something like in the stocks right now, but to the upside.

Agreed, excellent call Ker & even the retracement down towards USD820 & then to bounce back at USD 850 support.

 

If you can call the market again post G7, Sunday night you deserve a beer voucher or two.

well, i really don't know where we are going to trade right now, the ABC correction patterns are very difficult to predict because they behave in a random way and may take any form. so, we might go to test 820 (something like: current price -> 865 -> 820) and make a zig-zag or we might go to 880 and then 83X and complete a flat correction, or we might have a triangle..... With the dollar at its tops this getting a bit difficult. One thing that is important, is that we have to hold at 820, otherwise this is not going to look good, with targets of 790, 750 and explore the lows. Good thing is, until friday, the volume on the downside was lower than the upside we had on the breakaway gap from 780.