kernull

i have made some important discoveries:

getting very close to that 200mda

yes, we are very close, next week maybe. the stocks should bottom next week, oil should confirm bottom next week, looks like it is almost over for the dollar

ops, below 850, if we break 820 it will be very bearish.

That is US inventories, you would need to compare this to every other consuming country's inventories. The US are consuming less, there can be little doubt, but is this drop in consumption being offset by emerging countries increase?

exactly , US consumes around 25% (???) of the global consumption, so, as prices go lower, consumption increases in the other sides of the globe, specially undeveloped ones, increasing demand. Also oil extractors will be cutting production if it is not profitable for them, so i believe this inventory report dates are rather used by traders as trend begin/end points for pricing more stronger fundamental moves like 'deflation', 'peak oil' , 'falling dollar' and etc...

i think we will have a pullback to around 850 area

i believe we are very close to the end of the USD rally, the key factors for the reversal are:

- bottom in the stock market

- bottom in the currency pairs, which in USD/CAD & AUD/USD is likely to be right now and with posibility to bottom next week in other currencies

- bottom in oil, which is technically deeply oversold, and the reversal may happen anytime. (75 oil is the lowest point in the downtrend channel)

so, i think it is going to be next week, and my position is , that "this is it" for the dollar. an ABC up and a new downtrend. we may be starting the first wave next week, and the 3rd wave, the strong one, right after the elections.

Thanks for that chart. So maybe we've still got a couple of weeks to buy cheap silver.

yeah, i loaded on physical when it pulled back for the first time. i personally think silver at 10 will be the best buy of the year, Doug Casey bought tons of silver at 5 bucks , now you will be buying just about twice at what he have got it, and a bit cheaper than Jim Puplava, not bad. like a guy who made "some" money on the market said: "be greedy when people is fearful, be fearful when people is greedy" , so i think it is time to be greedy, specially on physical silver , mho

Come on silver, you arse!

not yet, but likely in a few weeks this will be over:

Ker, although I don't disagree with your sentiment what relevance does the 200 week or 3.846 year moving average have...? I guess we can all choose a convenient looking MA to bounce off but this is a fooked up market right now and I have sold the dollar too early at least once already . Cheers DD

i am not sure about the timing yet, but soon dollar rally should be ending, either it could happen after the elections, or after a rate cut, or the deleverage ends .... we have to check it in the major currency pairs for better precision, right now for example, in USD/CAD it is not clear if we are on a 3rd or a 5th (the final ) wave. but once it becomes clear, this is going to be a big fall, to add and keep adding positions during months, something like that.

The USD has only 2 choices, either it goes to 100, or it plunges very soon:

Ker, I'd be interested to hear your thoughts since todays move appears positive.

yes, it looks positive, i will be looking for a position between 845 and 860 area tomorrow, they should take down today's highs.

Looks like Ker channel 2 will hold and mini channel 7 has been broken.

hmm, I have a bad feeling about this, they jumped too fast, and the volume is low. right now they are in the middle of the channel #2 and thats a good point to plunge. so, i am not playing this no matter how high it could go

Ker,

I think you deserve a few of these

 

for an excellent explanation and the work you've put in doing it.

 

I don't trade Gold, but it's very interesting reading your explanation.

No doubt this week will be very interesting.

thank you guys! yes, lets see what happens, I give it 51% to bulls, 49% to bears.

here are some guidelines for monday, remember, this is not a secure outlook, it is just an idea and it maybe wrong, always use stops:

I concur with Ker this is the bottom

it may be the bottom, but we will going to test it very good, because we have little volume. i am not expecting it to jump up straight on monday, if it jumps on no volume, it will go back very fast.

this is very irrelgular wave pattern, but it I believe it is charted correctly:

If it's physical and you want to sell it at up to 25%+ spot please pm me

do you know Jason Homel?

well, he has some plans to bankrupt Comex, maybe you could follow his ideas , buy at spot price and save this 25%, I didn't read the article, but i think it will help you:

http://silverstockreport.com/2008/premiums.html

Yep it could go a lot lower... Remember that day of August 14 when silver went from 15 to 12 with 1 dollar drop during the day and 2 dollars during the night?

I get the same bad feeling here... I shall be watching the open of Globex with interest...

yes yes, i would be very comfortable to go long at 9 than at 10.80. lets see what happens monday we should have a low in gold for a retest of 820 and it could paint a picture for the week.

ok, here you have it:

oops, my mistake, the 'current support' line should be drawn at 828

where do you see it going now?

Its breaking out of the BB20 on the downside on the 1hr chart and broke the MM20 on the daily chart...

 

sorry I am crap at screenshots..

ok, here you have it:

i am bullish until it don't show signs that 820 is dead, if it dies, we are going to see 750 or something like that

well I put my money where my mouth is also (sold at 840) and I am saying that if the bill is passed (which I would be very surprised it does not) Gold will dip below 820.

i stoped out, the bearish move is not yet finished. now waiting

Your last two calls have been excellent, Ker, I hope you traded them.

sure, i put my money where my mouth is

bottom is in guys, pessimistic outlook is that 820 would be retested again, optimistic, is that today we close above 845 and london drives it down to 830 on monday, after that we should go above 920 as minimum

right now it is a good oportunity to take a position, we holded at 820 (still need another retest within the next 10 minutes, but i think it will hold) , however it is still risky to get a position because we have no volume. This is like buying oil at 90.50 about 2 weeks ago, next week we should go higher, because euro needs to retest the higher band if its downtrend channel. no charts, yet, sorry

Yes - that's twice now ker has called it very well in as many weeks (provided it doesn't go lower!)

 

can someone tell me where I can buy physical silver in small units at $11-12oz ?!

 

the 1000oz bars are just a bit too big for me!

well it went to 10.80! sorry! i guess i missed it because i was thinking in terms of covering my shorts, but as for buying i think you better wait what happens tomorrow. right now there is no indication on the charts on it, like it could go below 10 from here, or like it could go above 12 , no clue yet ....

I'm tempted to try and trade the ups and downs but fear that I'll make a hash of it is keeping me from doing so.

i don't recommend this, trading is a profession, if you want to trade you would need to learn first, like if you would go to school to become a doctor or layer ....

Coming back to a previous theme, I'm still interested by the relation between 'events' and 'charts'. We all seem to agree that 'events' e.g. congress fail to ratify the bailout earlier this week, have a big impact on shares. But many here have put forward convincing chart-derived analysis - how do the two relate, since charts cannot, of course, predict 'events'....?

W

you will be surprised, but this has very little relationship, if it has any relationship at all. for example , at 9/11 , the dow went down but not because of the attack, but because it was completing a correction cycle. and then after few weeks it went up again. check out the documentary film on this site about how news & market cycles relate : http://www.socionomics.net/films/history/default.aspx