romans holiday

Did gold just go through 900?

Both oil and gold heading up tonight.

Nahhh.... not me.. I have already given up on the dollar. I don't give a rat's... about POG now. It is no longer a credible measure of value. Though I see what you mean. The market will act like drunken sailors on a ship of fools before this is all over. If you haven't jumped ship, both economically and psychologically, get out now.

Interesting.... so a 3 ounce bar could buy 300 ounces of silver. If there is another huge deflation scare... this could be a very good option. But who knows, I think it is pretty darn cheap now! If I had dry powder I would be buying now.

Hi L- Thanks for posting Marc Faber's article, he is always good to read . As to silver, you seem to have done a lot more homework on it than me. What I have picked up from some running commentary [Hoye] is that it may not perform due to it being perceived more a commodity than money. I feel this is wrong, for the reason posted above; this time round with the dollar debased, silver's monetary qualities may perform well. Other commentators give arguments that silver will do extremely well and will outperform gold. I lean towards this commentary which usually involves a currency crisis. With a full blown currency crisis, commodities, as real stuff, will always do well. Plus of course silver is money. Arguments can be made that it is doubly good. Personally, I am not as sure about silver, as I am about gold, because I am less familiar with it. I think a good way to approach it is as yet another hedge. Rather than just having one currency, that of gold, why not have two! And if you are less comfortable with silver, just hold a smaller proportion of your worth in it. If it does not perform it does not matter too much. If it does perform, and goes further than the moon to Mars, then it will pay off handsomely. I am hoping to put a chunk of change into silver in a few months time [i am hoping the price stays done]. I am looking at it as not my core position but an investment that could do extremely well.... [similiar to how many invest in mining stocks and juniors]. Just my take on it.... Regards. Edit: I think diversifying is good for pragmatic reasons. Maybe you are more comfortable with silver, if so, you could hold a smaller proportion in gold.

Damn! Just when I had new found respect for him. In retrospect, he has called things quite well.

Well, for what it is worth, I think it is going to the moon. I am hoping to put my next chunk of change into silver... only got gold at the moment. Edit: What persuades me on silver, is that there will be a scarcity of real money after the dollar falls over. In the last depression, the dollar was backed by gold.... so it was as good as gold... which is why the dolar survived as money. This time round the dollar is backed by........ a debt riddled economy. so the monetary qualities of silver are likely to perform well.

I think "inflationists" need to wake up. We are in a huge bust... the crack up stage... the FED is doing everything they can to avoid the yawning abyss of a deflationary depression. They are obviously going down the road of hyper-inflation... maybe they will succeed... what a pyrrhic victory that is... maybe they will fail... most probably they will eventually destroy the currency. It is kind of child like to think we must either subscribe to the inflation camp or the deflation camp... and the twain never meet. Edit: In a classic hyper-inflation it would be a very good strategy to get into debt... inflation will make it so easy to pay it off. But I do not think many are thinking of this option this time round because it is so different. Edit edit: Gold is good.

Though I have great respect for John Williams, I thought he went a bit hyperbolic today and sounded shrill at times. Though I agree there will most probably be a hyperflationary scenario.... I think they do not do justice to to the reality of the deflationary forces at work today. Everything else, I am in complete agreement with them. Edit: Frankly, I am amazed they have not recognised the credit crisis as a huge contraction of the supply of money and credit and hence massively deflationary. But we have argued this ad infinitum before. Edit Edit: It was the first time I had heard the word "neo-deflation" before. I was very disappointed as I thought I had coined a new word for my own position. Could anyone tell me where else this word is being used??

Seems straight forward to me. I reckon that is the reason why most CB's have [or say they have] gold in their vaults. It is their "back up generator" when all else fails.

Maybe a tipping point will be reached when they become less an asset and more a liability. I reckon the Chinese are biding their time at the moment. they will cut the rope [no more buying of treasuries] when it suits them. Edit: "treasuries" what a misnomer that is!

Hi UTK- yes, you could be right. That is the really scary thing... much scarier than a depression... what will the politicians do? The so-called economic experts have looked to already panic Congress into some new RTC deal. Bush, with a perhaps prescient slip of the tongue, is talking about "persecuting" those nasty short sellers. Jim Cramer was even talking about putting financial terrorism on the table. The world can become crazy quickly. Maybe the best possible outcome would be a quick, clean, complete collapse of the system so they will not be able to do anything. Edit. I really do think though the bureacrats and politicians over-estimate there power. What can you do in the face of a black hole... or a whirlwind, but scurry for cover? Here's hoping.

If it is there at all. There are stranger things afoot in the world.

The latest Bushism: "Short sellers will be caught and persecuted!" I hope it is not strangely prescient.

Why does the figure of $200 billion suddenly feel so small?

Remember seeing a program on the history of the MAN OF THE YEAR covers. Originally, they often had tyrants on the cover[i believe Hitler among others was MAN OF THE YEAR once]. In those days, magazines were more concerned with genuine news content rather than the feel good factor of celebrity drivel we get today [personally, it nauseates me]. This, and also the PC culture, prevented Osama Bin Laden from taking the coveted space. So, it seems the space has a serious history, and is not to be messed with.

The end game is certain. Gold will perform. But the road we take to get there may not be so easy but a lot more crooked then we think. The nice simple theory of classic inflation; "printed money going into the mainstream economy pushing all prices up" has been sorely tested in the very recent past. With deflation in assets and huge deleveraging in commodities we were left scratching our heads as the price of gold plunged. Our theory was not performing... many started to doubt the theory and the end game itself. Though it is all happy days now, I believe this could all happen again. Look what happened to the 180 billion odd that was supplied to foreign CBs. It was simply swallowed up in one big black hole. Look what is happening to money markets.... we effectively saw a run on them. These are massive deflationary forces which have forced the Fed's hand in nationalizing everything. I am wondering if all the "printed" money to come will likewise just feed one big nasty hungry hole without making its way into the main stream of the economy. I see it differently from another perspective. The prices of commodities and consumables will rise when the dollar is devalued/deflated. This could easily happen on the international stage as the creditor nations downgrade the credit worthiness of the states; as they stop buying US debt. This in turn would led to a run on treasuries and the dollar. This in turn will see prices go through the roof. [if this process is slow enough [a slow deflation of the dollar] it could lead to an extended period of chaos in prices with no discernable trend up and down as we would have both deflationary and inflationary forces at work in prices. Eventually the game would be up as investors see a currency crisis] Deflation is alive and well [in economic terms maybe I say the opposite] and we should have a theory which recognizes it. We need a coherent theory to predict what will happen to prices and the wider economy and a theory which will guard from any coming alarms and surprises. Once again, I agree on the destination but the way we get there may not be so simple. Regards. Edit: I call my theory "neo-deflation"

Give up? Bob!

And whats the quadriplegic patient called when thrown in the doctor's bathtub of liquidity?

Just got a mental image of the muppets in the operating theatre.... dom de dom de dom... opps... no thats the chef I am just going to sit back and enjoy the show.

DJIA up, Gold up.... crazy days!

Mish's latest. http://howestreet.com/audiovideo/index.php...mediaplayer/963 Jim Kramer quoted as saying, "The financial terrorism thing has to be put on the table because the regular short sellers are not doing this" Things are starting to get crazy out there.

The dollar price of gold is going to be irrelevant soon.

Events may be coming to a head much quicker than this. I imagine FTC will be the tipping point.

I knew that the SEC was enforcing a ban on naked short selling but just saw ... SEC WILL BAN ALL SHORT SELLING! [have I got this wrong??] Also, looks like the democratic led Congress will roll over on RTC.