romans holiday

And be careful of the error of "presentism". I expect a big dip in silver sometime soon. I also thought silver could rise a bit in the interim, so recently bought [treating this as a trade]. I'll look to sell this on a possible spike and then rebuy on the dip.

There are two ways the "equilibrium" can be restored, right? Besides the price of gold increasing to meet all the "money creation", the debt can be written off. The most probable outcome will be a mix of the two [which would not make gold look quite so cheap in dollar terms], combining [external] debt deflation with inflation in the price of gold. Any true "equilibrium' between gold and money would have to involve a renewal of a gold standard.

I wouldn't sell in the short term. But would keep some powder dry to buy when gold is cheaper [silver for me] and assuming your purchasing currency is the dollar. I think it will take longer for gold to reach those targets than NC suggests. His chart is very short term bullish. imo there's no need to rush out and buy here... unless of course you don't have a decent position already in gold. Edit: I think we all tend to read our own preconceptions into charts... something to do with "theory laden observations" no doubt. I notice on his chart the earlier RSI top [2006] resembles even better the latest... and gold tracked sideways for a year.

After a good run up in 2009, 2010 could see a corrective year [similiar to 2008] for gold where 3 digit prices are seen again before going to new heights. Will the next corrective phase be even more violent?

Not a bad spot. As far as a crisis goes, I think the currencies/ stock markets of emerging countries will get hammered.... while the dollar spikes. I think Korea is relatively well placed to export more in the future to China than the US... but until the peg gets sorted out, we might just see another bursting bubble in Chinese assets in a year or so. I feel like I'm living a little on the edge here.

Yep, been working at a university in Seoul now for four years. Good pay and working conditions [4 months paid holiday a year]. Have to admit I'm a little nervous about the Won and will most probably bail next year back to NZ. I wouldn't be surprised to see some kind of IMF crisis 2 this year. Am in the process of moving into a great apartment on the top of a building with a wrap-around verandah... gets the sun all day. The landlady was very keen for me to sign a 2 year lease, but I insisted only on the one year. I do not keep much money in Won, and have a small ingot of gold handy for a quick exit if needed.

But isn't that what "core position" means? Something you will hold onto... or what it is which you are trying to accumulate. As for selling your gold... my guess is that you will only swap for property... but it will probably make a lot of sense in the future not to sink ALL your capital into property and remain relatively liquid. then it makes sense to not sell [all] your gold as Russell is suggesting above.

http://goldprice.org/live-gold-price.html I find this one very good.

Sticking to the game plan of diverse currencies: Earning currency is Korean Won Native currency is Kiwi dollars Reserve currency is the dollar Speculating currency is silver Saving/ accumulating currency is gold. Wildcard is Yen.

Yep, with a long term plan in mind, you can buckle up and enjoy the roller coaster ride. No point in getting too excited on moves up, and then too worried on the moves down... that would soon get exhausting.

All this talk of bubbles mystifies me. I don't think gold is in a bubble because I don't think it can become a bubble... not in an increasingly unstable macro environment in which free-floating unfixed currencies are also caught up. Maybe those buying gold should be working with a "five year plan" or so in mind. It could take a while for the fundamentals [a kind of "Hegelian logic"] to work itself out in the market. Gold looks likely to remain "the other side of the trade" to the economy, so as long as investors continue to see a recovery, the gold price might decline a bit. When the next wheel falls off and investors react to the realities of the "new normal", gold, along with other major currencies, will likely spike again. In the long run, gold will likely come out on top, as it will most probably be utilized as an integral component to a new currency required to stabilize the global economy. This could take years to work out. HAPPY NEW YEAR!

I'm fine... especially now that I've started a 10 week holiday! I was just speaking facetiously..... the "comfort zone" of my own psychology is just as important for my investment decisions as to what develops in this "twilight zone" market. I aim for zero anxiety levels.

Gold and dollars basically. Perhaps also silver, Euros and Yen when cheap. Besides saving in these currencies, I think there is also the opportunity to speculate a little given the likelihood of continued volatility between some of the "contrary" currencies. the dollar and gold is a good example of this, though I doubt we will always see the two inversely correlated.

A good time to start talking about where gold could bottom out. Looks to me that gold could easily revisit the 3 digit area if the dollar continues to strengthen. I think the price would be quite solid at 950-1000. and would be surprised to see it go sub 900. I see 900 as solid support with this only being breached on another round of deleveraging/ deflation scare.

I'm not so sure of this. Consider an alternative. The government's effort to reflate/ support over-inflated house prices fails with prices declining to a more "sustainable" level in the next few years. Your deposit, kept dry in the strongest currencies, strengthens against assets as they deflate. No leverage required then to mulitply your deposit to keep pace with inflating house prices... just a good solid deposit kept safe while houses deflate in value.

I basically agreed with Radge's comment. You realise it's a gamble, and it could pay off handsomely. Good luck with it. My more conservative strategy is to continue to hold both the gold I have bought at a lower price, and the US dollars I had raised... expecting a decline. When the price declines, I'll buy.... silver!

For sure!

U.S. Dollar Breakout Means Gold Has a Lot Further to Fall http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article15950.html Looks like it has once again become a dollar story. Even if we see a massive rally in the dollar here, I doubt gold will fall too far... sticking to 900 the handle for now. Another article here on the dollar which I found a good read: U.S. Dollar Grinds Higher after Convincing Breakout http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article15944.html

Yes, I think we should be thinking in terms of years in regard to the performance of gold and silver.... we are well out ahead of the mainstream investor. Silver could maybe hold up here even with a strengthening dollar, but if we saw another round of deleveraging surely it would be pounding [why I'm keeping powder dry]. If I sold all my silver here for dollars, I'd feel naked. If I had everything in silver, I'd feel exposed. So kind of straddling the two at the moment.

Also think it could get a pounding. But will not sell as also think it could go higher [though less likely than being pounded]. Rather than sell, I will keep a large reserve of cash ready to pile in after the pounding. If I had 100% in silver, I'd be lightening up.

Jim Puplava and David Morgan talking about a liquidity squeeze and what this will entail for the dollar and gold [on FSN]. Jon Exter's inverted pyramid was mentioned and here it is for those that are unfamiliar here it is. It represents a liquidity squeeze where money looks to move from illiquid to liquid assets. Dollar and gold are seen to strengthen against other assets. This pyramid has been quite central to my own ideas of where events are heading. A Moneychanger Interview: Mr. John Exter Simplex Munditiis http://the-moneychanger.com/articles_files...omy/exter.phtml

Good caricature of the far right's caricature of gold.

They also made a golden bull in the wilderness, and worshipped it.

Perhaps you think it will never reach 900. And you could be right. The 900 handle refers to any price bewteen 900 and 1000.

Gold heading back below 1100. If the dollar can continue to strengthen over the next month or two, we could well see gold eventually testing the 900 handle. Looks like a good healthy correction to shake out some of the weaker hands, before going onto new heights no doubt. Will be interesting to see how low silver can dip. The decline is more pronounced in the US dollar than other currencies such as Sterling, Euro and Aussie suggesting that dollars are the best currency to wait in for lower prices. For myself, I'll buy silver on the dip, then swap to gold on a favourable gold/silver ratio.