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Kwun Tong neighbourhood guide - creative haven that's gentrifying Christopher DeWolf Start From Zero's furniture workshop in Kwun Tong. Photos: Christopher DeWolf Kwun Tong's story is not unique. Most cities have an old industrial area where factories and warehouses emerge from obsolescence to become havens for artists, musicians, designers, entrepreneurs and anyone else looking for cheap rent. Kwun Tong is all Hong Kong: a peculiar blend of art and commerce in a landscape of grimy buildings that seem frozen in time. Although it was a centre of salt production dating back to the late 1200s, Kwun Tong's modern history didn't kick off until the 1950s, when it was developed as Hong Kong's first new town. It soon became the roiling heart of working-class Hong Kong, a bastion of left-wing politics and a centre of manufacturing for everything from textiles to plastics to electrical appliances. In 1979, when the first MTR line opened, it led not to Central but to Kwun Tong. On the waterfront: Kwun Tong's promenade is a great place to relax. When industrial production was relocated to China in the 1990s, Kwun Tong's empty, highly affordable industrial spaces were colonised by creative types; musicians were especially fond of the area. . . . ART OF THE DISTRICT Kwun Tong's business-friendly makeover has taken its toll on the neighbourhood's cultural scene. While Osage Kwun Tong once boasted the most spacious private art space in the city, the contemporary art gallery has been forced to downsize its former 15,000 sq ft home for more modest digs. But it's still one of the most exciting art destinations in town, with a roster of local artists including Wilson Shieh and Leung Mee-ping. These days, what remains of the area's creative energy can be seen at the pop-up craft markets and parties in spaces like A Nice Place To … and the rooftop of the Easy-Pack Industrial Building, which is home to designers such as the Cave Workshop. This year saw the debut of Sunday Agenda, a monthly flea market and music festival at Hidden Agenda, a stalwart venue that has survived government raids to become the city's top indie music venue. == > more: http://www.scmp.com/magazines/48hrs/article/1794432/kwun-tong-neighbourhood-guide-creative-haven-thats-gentrifying?utm_source=edm&utm_medium=edm&utm_content=20150514&utm_campaign=scmp_today

Why Brewerytown is Philly’s best neighborhood EXCERPT I first encountered the neighborhood as a senior journalism student at Temple University in 2012. At the time, I lived at a 22nd and Diamond — sandwiched between a liquor store and a funeral home — a few blocks away from the Brewerytown threshold at 22nd and Cecil B. Moore. I was assigned to cover the area for Philadelphia Neighborhoods, Temple’s capstone course. During that time, I met with the Greater Brewerytown Community Development Corp., local residents,and the team over at MM Partners — a real estate development, construction and management company that had already invested about $45 million into the neighborhood (according to the Philadelphia Business Journal, the partners are now planning to invest an additional $60 million). While I found the GBCDC and MM Partners' plans to be relatively aligned and well-intentioned, the residents' perspectives generally went one of two ways: They loved all the new developments and the impending “bright future” (usually from the “newbies”), or it was all a clear example of the city’s push toward gentrifying the inner city, in which case, they felt rather powerless in preventing it. Longtime Brewerytown residents have had to undergo some major re-adjustments. They tend to have relatively fixed incomes and face rising property values and other zoning and politically driven measures, in addition to an influx of new neighbors. . . . Accessibility and transportation With Center City less than 15 minutes away by car (about 25 minutes on a brisk walk), I-76 less than five minutes away and SEPTA running in all directions, Brewerytown is one of the most accessible sections of the city. As a media-relations consultant, freelance journalist, community activist and media personality, my schedule can change at any moment, and it’s important that I’m able to make a move in record timing if needed; living here ensures that’s possible, and my life flows a little smoother because of it. Food and spirits I’m a self-proclaimed “fat kid” (no, really, I use the hashtag #fatkidsunite), and the foodie scene offers a plethora of options, some of which are in nearby Fairmount. For example, if you eat by Zagat ratings, head to Angelino’s (Italian cuisine), which was rated four stars and above. There are the tried and true: Butter's Soul Food, Blue Jay Restaurant, Philly Sunnyside Diner, Deborah’s Kitchen, Italian Express and Lazo’s Pizza & Grill. Deborah's Kitchen at 2608 Girard Avenue. Thom Carroll/PhillyVoice.com. Looking for something a little more modern? No worries! We have Rybrew, iMunch Café and the Lucky Goat Coffee House (more are popping up, so this list will probably change by the time it’s published). Want to get lost in the neighborhood vibe over a good drink, comfortable environment and affordable bar food? Brewerytown is just blocks away from Fairmount haunts like North Star Bar, Playmakers or ERA. Fairmount's North Star Bar is a stone's throw away from Brewerytown. Thom Carroll/PhillyVoice.com. Arts and culture As a mother who loves nature and art, I appreciate all that Brewerytown offers in such a short distance. The Art Museum, Fairmount Park, Philadelphia Zoo and Kelly Drive are all within walking distance. === >more : http://www.phillyvoice.com/why-brewerytown-phillys-best-neighborhood/

GOLD - there are two sides to the story (as always) / this is from Casey Research / Gold will drop to $700/oz. That’s the latest stunning prediction from economist Harry Dent. He claims “gold is not money,” its “uses are limited,” and there is little to support current prices. I think he is dead wrong. In fact, I recently bet Harry--each of us wagering bullion from our private stores--that gold will never drop to that level. I believe just the opposite will happen. I see gold about to enter its next bull market. And I’ve put all the reasons why in a special 18-page report titled Gold: Dead or Alive? Inside, you’ll get all the research Harry and I assembled to form our differing predictions so you can decide for yourself who is right. For anyone who owns an ounce of gold or single share of mining stock, this is a must read. And it’s completely free. Click here to get your FREE copy of this report.

Ray Dalio: "If You Don't Own Gold, You Know Neither History Nor Economics"Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/14/2015 - 17:00 "If you dont own gold... there is no sensible reason other than you dont know history or you dont know the economics of it"

Reference from an article by A. Goulielmos Long-term forecasting of BFI using chaos cycle theory and maritime technical analysis Idealized Long-run shipping cycle of 16-24 Years due to Hampton / source: Hampton (1990) Maritime technical analysis (1990) Hampton (1990) argued that it is possible to make accurate short- and long-term forecasts of freight rates by combining market psychology with cycles of various durations. He singled out two major cycles. (a) The Short-run Hampton’s cycle (2002-2008) The short run idealized cycle of Hampton, consisting of 4 shorter cycles and 8 stages, is shown in a historical picture in Figure 6 for 1986-1990. This cycle, lasting 3-4 years, had 8 stages starting at stage 0 with 535.5 units in the BFI index in 1986. Up to stage 5 the freight rate shows 3 regular ups and 3 downs with the characteristic being the peak at stage 5 (1684 units). Stage 7 must be lower than stage 5 and stage 8 must be equal to stage 0 (800 units 535.5). Next is a more contemporary picture of the short-run Hampton cycles (Figure 7): one from November 2002 to July 2005 (33 months from low to low; lasting 40.5 months<48 months maximum); one between 2005 and 2008 and one starting on 16th December 2008 and terminated in April 2011. Figure 7 above covers daily BPI from 01/11/1999 to 25/01/2011. .. Figure 7. Panamax, 4 time charter routes of BPI $ per day, 01/11/99-25/01/11, 2815 days Source: Excel and data for BPI. Table 4. Hampton’s short cycle 3-4 years, 2005-2008 The General picture 01/08/2005 $1522 at the start, stage 0 Start 23/01/06, stage 1 at $ 1882 Stage 4 at $5472 11/06/07 Stage 7 at $11056 19/05/08- lower than that of stage 5 as in theory 13/10/2008 $1584 end, stage 8; Stage 2 at $3632 23/10/06 Stage 5 (peak) at $11524 29/10/07 Stage 8 at $1584 13/10/08 –this should be equal to $1522 of stage 0; The Detailed picture Start 01/08/2005 at $1522, stage 0 Stage 3 at $6261 14/05/07 -support from supply and demand equilibrium Stage 6 at $5620 28/01/08 Duration 40.5 months (within theory of 36-48 months) . . . units). Stage 7 must be lower than stage 5 and stage 8 must be equal to stage 0 (800 units>535.5). Next is a more contemporary picture of the short-run Hampton cycles (Figure 7): one from November 2002 to July 2005 (33 months from low to low; lasting 40.5 months<48 months maximum); one between 2005 and 2008 and one starting on 16th December 2008 and terminated in April 2011. Figure 7 above covers daily BPI from 01/11/1999 to 25/01/2011. The cycles that can be read from Figure 7 are 2 finished and one on the way, from low to low: i.e. one from day 760 to day 1430, i.e. 22 months and 10 days; one from 1430 to 2240, i.e. 27 months and one from 2240 to 2815, i.e. 19 months and 5 days (which continued). We see that cycles last longer as we move into the end 2008 crisis. The total duration is 7 years and about 4 months for the 3 short cycles since 2002, taking into account Hampton’s theory. The lowest value of the index occurred on 12/12/08 .. xx Table 4 shows the freight rates that were formed during Hampton’s short cycle (2005-2008). xx Figure 7 shows that a new short cycle started on 13/12/08 at $3 537 plus (after the 2286th day) (This cycle started and continued beyond Jan. 2011). This is the correction phase. The correction phase is when excesses and mistakes in the build-up phase are corrected. According to Hampton (1990), the freight market during this phase is irregular; the first short cycle after crisis 2008-2012, as shown in Figures 4 and 8, produced lower (<$30 000) freight rates. Ordering new ships ceased, apart for speculation and ‘false dawns’ (‘False dawn’ is a metaphor meaning that ship-owners proceed to get finance from their bankers believing on the coming of a ‘dawn’, i.e. a permanent improvement of freight market, which, however, proves to be deceptive. A barometer of the market to improve is the minimal amount of laid up tonnage) == > Academic citation: http://www.academia.edu/8513955/Long-term_forecasting_of_BFI_using_chaos_cycle_theory_and_maritime_technical_analysis

Alex Goulielmos said (above): "...Previous writers (Hampton, Stopford, Randers, and Goluke) without nonlinear econometrics reached the same conclusions. == SIDEBAR: on Jorgen Randers == Who are these guys? One of them, Jorgen Randers was famous years before the Long and Short Cycles book: He was one of the authors of Limits to Growth (1972), with Dennis Meadows, et al Jørgen Randers is a Norwegian academic, professor of climate strategy at the BI Norwegian Business School, and practitioner in the field of future studies. Wikipedia Born: 1945 Education: Massachusetts Institute of Technology He's still giving thought-provoking lectures We won't be nine billion: Jørgen Randers at TEDxMaastricht Published on May 11, 2014 ... if you liked that, here's more: 2052 A GLOBAL FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FORTY YEARS (Long version) What SHOULD have been done 1. Introduce the 1-child family, first in the rich world - to further slow growth 2. Ban fossil fuels, first in the rich world - to reduce climate emissions 3. Build a climate-friendly energy system for and in the poor world - to help them avoid cheap coal 4. Establish supra-national institutions (e.g. a global central bank for climate-gas-emission rights_ - to temper short-termism 5. Establish new goals for a rich society: Higher wellbeing in a world without growth An Update to Limits to Growth: http://cms2.unige.ch/isdd/IMG/pdf/jorgen_randers_2052_a_global_forecast_for_the_next_forty_years.pdf

What can we learn from 259 years of shipping cycles? www.inderscienceonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1504/IJSTL.2010.030863 Using a very long time series indeed of 259 years for dry cargo freight ...... Alexander M. Goulielmos, former professsor at the Univesity of Piraeus / cites: Hampton, M.J. (1991) Long and Short Shipping Cycles, 3rd ed., Cambridge Academy .

Brewerytown - Livability score: 72, "very livable" • ranked #34 in Philadelphia, ranked #89 in Pennsylvania Crime: 5,078/100k : 11% > Philly, and 1,229: 11%>Ph. on V-crimes Median Housing: $140,619 / hh income: $30,962 : ratio: 4.54 / Rent: $702 Brewerytown is a neighborhood in the North Philadelphia district of the city of Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, United States. An unofficial region, Brewerytown runs approximately between the Schuylkill River's eastern bank and 25th Street, bounded by Cecil B. Moore Avenue to the north and Parrish Street to the south. Brewerytown got its name because of the numerous breweries that were located along the Schuylkill during the late 19th century and early 20th century. It is now primarily a residential neighborhood, with an active commercial sector along Girard Avenue. . . . At its peak, 700 breweries operated across Philadelphia, several in a ten-block area of Brewerytown. ...every single brewer had vanished by 1987. The industry has slowly returned to the city, but at nowhere near the capacity of its heyday.... Until recently, Brewerytown has been a predominantly poor, African-American neighborhood. In 1991, the Brewerytown Historic District was certified by the National Register of Historic Places. The district contains 380 buildings and is roughly bounded by 30th St., Girard Ave., 32nd St. and Glenwood Ave - and where some new properties are being built, especially on Girard Avenue -- Will this trend grow? Brewerytown MM Partners strongly believes in giving back to the community where we work and live. This entails sponsoring public art, hosting and sponsoring community events, funding youth programs, mentoring kids in the area, and working closely with community non-profits. > http://mmpartnersllc.com/?gclid=CjwKEAjwj9GqBRCRlPram97Xk3ESJADrN7IeKZqp9WDwKSfvoCmpAdFeElZNOz0UAXS8tOrI372FzhoCcf_w_wcB Over the next two years, MM Partners plans to invest roughly $60 million in Brewerytown, a Philadelphia neighborhood > http://www.google.com.hk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=10&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CGYQFjAJ&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bizjournals.com%2Fphiladelphia%2Fblog%2Freal-estate%2F2014%2F12%2Fmm-partners-to-invest-60-million-in-brewerytown.html%3Fpage%3Dall&ei=eulVVdunBsPImwX-vICwBg&usg=AFQjCNEwBEALFTsSEwHg_XH82zkK1SAoKg&sig2=mMMwO8b664Wx7Ehcu0LDxg&bvm=bv.93564037,d.dGY GentrificationRecently, Brewerytown has seen a trend of gentrification. The Girard Avenue commercial corridor has seen new businesses move in and property values increase, along with increases in property values in other sections of the city associated with the influx of young professionals to Center City.[citation needed] Brewerytown SquareIn 2004 The Westrum Development Company announced a multi-million-dollar real-estate project known as Brewerytown Square, which is to create hundreds of housing units aimed at middle class buyers. The project is opposed by the community group AABRA, or African-American Business & Residents Association, which is led by Al Alston. This group claims that Westrum is attempting to drive out long-time, lower-income residents in favor of wealthy, young urban professionals, by driving up property values. AABRA is engaged in a lawsuit with the city of Philadelphia over Brewerytown land rights. Despite the ongoing legal proceedings, the first Westrum housing units are already for sale. AABRA has threatened to create an alternative development called "Songhai City" (in reference to the Songhai Empire), a proposed mecca for black culture. In August 2006, AABRA leader Alston overturned a city government decision that deemed the proposed Songhai City property blighted. The location, a dilapidated garage, was set to be acquired by Westrum Development, razed, and rebuilt as townhouses in accordance with the developers' massive reconstruction efforts in the neighborhood. The decision, a surprise to Westrum, who had considered the matter settled, will now force the developer to build around the property, == > http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brewerytown,_Philadelphia

Tony Caldaro is still Bullish on US Property Housing update 2015 Posted on May 13, 2015by tony caldaro After identifying the bull market top in this sector of the economy in 2005/2006, and then watching it collapse. We did a lot of work, while many were bearish, discovering which of the multitude of indicators were important in anticipating a bear market low. As a result we have written several reports over the years. The latest one should lead back to the previous reports: https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2013/05/26/us-housing-update/. When the double bottom, we had been anticipating, arrived in 2011, we waited for a new bull market confirmation, which occurred in early 2012. Since then our leading and coincident indicators have remained bullish. In fact they continue to rise. Building permits have risen from a 2011 low of 542k to 1102k in 2014/2015. While they continue to remain somewhat depressed, compared to the past 50 years:http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PERMIT. We expect them to rise to about 1500k before this bullish cycle ends. Home builder bullish sentiment has increased from a low of 8% in 2009 to a recent high of 58% in 2014. As long as it continues to rise we see the bull market in housing continuing. Historically, housing prices rise for 6 to 12 months after both of the above indicators have already turned bearish. New home prices, which drive existing home prices, have increased from a low of $250k in 2011 to a recent 2014 all time new high of $384k. That is over 50% in just three years: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/ASPNHSUS. The average sales price of all homes sold in the US http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/ASPUS is now at record highs as well. Even the Case-Shiller index, which measures the cost of home building excluding inflation, has risen 29% since its 2012 low. This has already exceeded our expected 25% increase. With mortgage rates remaining low, household debt as a percentage of disposable income at multi-decade lows: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TDSP, homeownership levels still on the decline: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/USHOWN/, and the relatively low level of single family houses sold, this bull market could continue a lot longer than most are anticipating. Best of luck in your real estate investing! CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp == > https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2015/05/13/housing-update-2015/

Update - to a chart on this historic thread I said then: "Looks like GLD will touch the (unrecogised, but important) 480d MA today"... update UPDATE: GLD / Gold-- GLD-chart : LT-chart If GLD closes above $122 (x 10.4= $1,269, it will have made it through several important Resistance levels Here's a longer term version of the chart ;

CONDO SUPPLY Situation : An update Colliers, Q1 report was just released: "...Construction delays at several condominium projects will push back the bulk of the expected new supply for 2015. By year’s end, 8,253 residential units will be completed. With few new developments to absorb the still strong demand, rents and resale prices are expected to further appreciate. " (see just prior post, #160) OLD : Shows completions clustered in 2015, especially for Makati (also see post #101) Location : End2013 / 2014F: +Pct. / End2014/ 2015F: + Pct. / 2016F : + Pct . / 2017F: + Pct. / 2018F ======= Makati - : : 17,656 / 0,454: + 2.57% / 18,110 / 4,608: +25.4% / 2,017: +11.1% / 1,485: +8.20% / 1,072 B.G.C. -- : : 17,513 / 1,914: +10.9% / 19,427 / 5,433: +28.0% / 4,895: +28.0% / 2,979: +15.3% / 1,010 Ortigas-- : : 11,921 / 1,711: +14.4% / 13,633 / 2,756: +20.2% / 1,227: +9.00% / 0,573: +4.20% / 0,422 Rck+Ewd :: 10,548 / 1,159: +11.0% / 11,706 / 0,000 : +00.0% / 0,908: +7.76% / 0,346: +2.96% / 0,914 Total-of-5: 57,638 / 5,238 : +9.09% / 62,876 /12,797 +20.4% / 9,127: +14.5% / 5,383: +8.56% / 3,628 Location : End2013 / Old.2014: Differ. / End2014/ 2015F: + Pct. / 2016F : + Pct . / 2017F: + Pct. / 2018F Makati - : : 17,656 / 18,110 : +0,454/ 18,564 / 1,768: +9.52% / 4,857: +26.2% / 1,485: +8.20% / 1,072 B.G.C. -- : : 17,513 / 19,427 : +1,914/ 21,341/ 3,729: +17.5% / 6,599: +30.9% / 2,979: +15.3% / 1,010 Ortigas-- : : 11,921 / 13,343 : +2,000/ 15,343/ 2,756: +20.7% / 1,227: +8.00% / 0,573: +4.20% / 0,422 Rck+Ewd :: 10,548 / 11,706 : +1,160/ 12,866 / 0,000: +00.0% / 0,988: +7.68% / 0,346: +2.96% / 1,124 Total-of-5: 57,638 / 62,876 : +5,238/ 68,114 / 8,253: +12.1% /13,671:+20.1% / 5,383: +7.90% / 3,628 Apart from the delays, the "New" data starts from a higher base - (I'm not sure why- a Colliers recount?) The 9.5% rise for Makati in 2015, looks manageable, and so does the 12.1% overall rise- especially considering that many of the new completions are smaller studio and 1BR flats. However, 2016 will be more of a challenge, with more than 20% overall, and a very large number of completions in the "blue chip" Makati and BGC areas. There may be some iindigestions issues for the market then, especially if interest rates are higher then, and there is some slowdown in the global economy. Having said that, The Philippines market has thus-far shown a nice resilience. And there could be further delays in 2016. This seems to be a feature of many modern property markets. BGC may be an area to watch, since completions there will be heavy in 2015-17, and there are some real transportation issues for those who live in BGC and work in other areas, such as Makati.

The Saudi "squeeze" on Oil production is working Saudi Arabia sees success in fight to retain dominance of global Oil - SCMP, pg.1 headline + Output strategy squeezes US shale + Expectation of tighter supply fuels price rally + The kingdom's production rose to a record high of 10.3mn barrels a day + The price fall has deterred investors away from expensive oil, including US shale + Working oil rigs have plunged by 60 percent + "Saudi Arabia wants to extend the age of oil... we want to be the major producer" + Expectations are that the market may start to tighten by mid-year, and the IEA says the "oil reached rockbottom (at $45)... doesn't look like it is going back"

Just out ! Colliers Q1-2015 report: Shows +1.97% Gain, Qtr.onQtr > http://www.colliers.com/-/media/Files/Marketing%20Reports/Knowledge_Q1_2015B.pdf RENTS 1Q /2014 : 0,810 : +0.62% : +10.2% / 0,555 - 1,065 / 0,610 - 1,020 / 0,725 - 1,025 : 2Q /2014 : 0,820 : +1.23% : +5.13% / 0,560 - 1,080 / 0,625 - 1,025 / 0,740 - 1,030 : 3Q /2014 : 0,830 : +1.22% : +3.75% / 0,570 - 1,090 / 0,630 - 1,035 / 0,790 - 1,090 : 4Q /2014 : 0,838 : +0.96% : +4.10% / 0,575 - 1,100 / 0,640 - 1,045 / 0,750 - 1,055 : 1Q /2015 : 0,848 : +1.19% : +4.69% / 0,578 - 1,118 / 0,660 - 1,050 / 0,755 - 1,080 : Qtr /Yr. : Mak-Mid. QonQtr : YronYr / Lo - Makati - H / L-Bonfacio-H / L-Rockwell- H / Makati Yield 3br? : 1Q/ 2015 : 0,848 x12 = 10,176 / 147,350 : 6.91% Yield (prev. 6.96%) ======= 1Q /2014 : 136,533 : +1.20% : +10.32% : 91,715 - 181,350 : 103,200 - 163,150 : 110,240 - 175,685 : 2Q /2014 : 138,083 : +1.13% : +07.27% : 93,000 - 183,165 : 104,400 - 165,465 : 111,345 - 172,070 : 3Q /2014 : 142,750 : +3.38% : +08.10% : 98,000 - 187,500 : 108,000 - 170,000 : 115,000 - 178,500 : 4Q /2014 : 144,500 : +1.23% : +07.11%: 100,000- 189,000 : 110,000 - 180,000 : 117,000 - 180,000 : 1Q /2015 : 147,350 : +1.97%: + 7.92%: 102,500- 192,200 : 113,000 - 179,500 : 119,000 - 189,000 : Qtr / Yr. : Mak-Mid. QonQtr : YronYr / Low - Makati - H / Low -Bonfacio- H / Low -Rockwell- H / Comments - RESIDENTIAL DELAYS ! Four residential condominiums were completed in the major Metro Manila CBDs during the first quarter, delivering 1,649 new units across major business locations in Metro Manila. However, construction delays at several condominium projects will push back the bulk of the expected new supply for 2015. By year’s end, 8,253 residential units will be completed. With few new developments to absorb the still strong demand, rents and resale prices are expected to further appreciate. OFFICE + Fort Bonifacio has established itself as the next central business district after the Makati CBD after attracting numerous multinational companies to locate in the area. + Capital value growth in the Makati CBD outpaced rent growth during the period, as landlords considered the sudden uptick in average land values two quarters ago. Premium office space averaged PHP158,000 per sq m, a 2.4% QoQ increase. Grade A office values, much like rents, appreciated the fastest at 4.1% QoQ...

Gold / USD / china gold // gdx : n s a : / Gold : $1,240.0 x .781 = 968.5 (Key Resistance = Eur.975) : : : AG - T + D / Calculations : : 3-days > SGE - Site : http://www.sge.sh/publish/sgeen/index.htm Calculations: 09/26-Close: Rmb3,870 /6.127 x 35.274: $17.91 vs cmx-AG: $17.65 = prem.+$0.26 10/08-10am: Rmb3,846 /6.140 = $ 626.4 / 35.274 = $17.76-17.19 (prem. 57 cents) 10/08-12Nn: Rmb3,815 /6.140 = $ 621.3 / 35.274 = $17.61-17.14 (prem. 46 cents) (Previously, I have observed a discount of about 20 cents) ============== Silver (+$0.62) and Gold ($21) - are looking good today (as I had expected !) But I do mind the gaps, since these gaps nearly always get filled (eventually - but we could get 3 gaps first) SLV ...update

TAKE THE TRAIN to the Plane in checking flight availability thru Expedia, I discovered we can take a Train from Central philadelphia directly to Newark airport, and save time and money that way This works especially well when one has international flights that go thru Newark (such as to London or Hong Kong, but not to Philadelphia) ZFV*(Philadelphia 30th St Train Station)* - International flight "United 3162 operated by Amtrak Train Economy / Coach (L) / NOTE: THIS IS TRAIN SERVICE ==== *ZFV is an "airport" code for Philadelphia train station and they for the most part match all of the fares from Philadelphia airport, which are often lower than from EWR. The flights are actually from EWR but come with a free train ticket (usually they are essentally PAYING you to take the ticket) from Philadelphia city to EWR. These train tickets are very expensive; even though the ride from Philadelphia to EWR is only an hour, Amtrak charges over $100 round-trip (standard non-Acela service) > http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/general_aviation/read.main/1940845/

How I explain MOMA / MOMC : A Solar Turn? I trade gold, and monitor daily price moves closely. I have the feeling that Gold may be getting set for a big move up in the near future, and that may coincide with a drop in stocks. Remember that old saying: "Sell in May, and go away."? Well, maybe it is time to pay very close attention to these markets, and start making some portfolio shifts. This week, I started buying Puts on the S&P500, and Calls on Gold and Silver. One of the arcane ratios I watch is the Ratio: Gold-to-Bonds. This is the ratio between two major "safe haven" assets: the most portable tangible asset (Gold) and so-called "risk free paper", ie US dollar denominated fixed income assets (T-Bonds.) If you look at this as a Ratio of Gold-to-Bonds, the ratio made a very clear bottom on March 20, 2015 - And I now call the day of the upturn the "moment of maximum complacency" - people were so very complacent, thinking that dollar bonds were completely safe, and there was little or no need to think of the relative safety that tangible assets, precious metals, can provide.. The SLV-Silver -to- TLT Ratio is also confirming a new uptrend I looked to see if there was anything special which had happened on that day. Amazingly, it turned out to be the very day of a rare, Total Solar eclipse! If you want to discover even more major changes that happened around that time, and seem to have trigger some important trend-changes, have a look at the charts, and the comments that I posted on my GEI website: http:www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=20038 I hope this proves of some interest to you. Feel free to pass on the link and comments. A short cut link is : http://tinyurl.com/MaxApathy

Finance for Flippers ? Notes from article: "Big Firms link up with Home Flippers" - SCMP, pg.P5 + Wall Street player, including Blackstone and Cerberus (and Colony Capital) are moving into financing investors who buy and sell homes for quick profits + Borrowing costs for "fix-and-flippers" are the highest in residential sector (like 15%, with 3-5% upfront), but are tumbling (to maybe 10%, plus 2% upfront) as more firms compete for customers + The new firms entering the sector may have lower borrowing costs, than traditional private lenders. ("It's cheaper and better for the borrower, if you do it on a national scale"). Blackstone is looking to put $1 Billion into such lending + Home flippers are also benefitting from rising prices, with average gross profits rising from US$61,684 to $72,450 in the last year. But new lenders are most eager to work with experience investors, who may have established companies as the vehicles for such activity. Lenders have to get used to the "churn", where the borrowers may resell quickly when they find a satsifactory end-buyer + "Everyone has jumped in" was one comment about the new lenders (Meantime - NYC Mayor De Blasio is raising taxes) De Blasio is a self-describe progressive, who seeks higher taxes on the wealthy: "This can't be a city of just penthouses and luxury condos" He wants to impose a 1% surcharge on transfer tax in sales of homes over US$1.75mn Might this cause some investors to divert interest to other cities, like Phialdelphia?

Condo sizes shrinking in Metro ManilaABS CBN News-1 May 2015 MANILA, Philippines - Sizes of condominium units being offered in Metro Manila are shrinking along with the land available for development in the country’s capital region, a global online property portal revealed in its latest report. Lamudi Philippines said 40 percent of Metro Manila’s for-sale and for-rent condo inventories at present have floor sizes measuring 50 square meters or smaller, a size which many would consider as a “shoebox apartment.” “It seems that going smaller is the trend now for Metro Manila’s condo market,” Lamudi Philippines said. The report stressed that a condominium project that squeezes in 200 units per tower was “virtually unheard of” back in the 1990s. “Now, it is becoming the norm, with some developers launching projects with more than 30 condo units per floor or approximately 1,200 condo units for a 40-story high-rise,” the online property platform said. Lamudi’s study found that Quezon City has the greatest portion of shoebox condos with 72 and 67 percent of the city’s for-sale and for-rent units, respectively, having floor areas measuring 50 square meters or smaller. In Makati, 31 and 34 percent of for-sale and for-rent condos, respectively, are smaller than 50 square meters. For-sale and for-rent condos, which are smaller than 50 square meters in Taguig, meanwhile, are 26 and 32 percent. “Cost-wise, smaller does not necessarily mean cheaper, at least when you look at the per-square meter prices of these apartments,” Lamudi said. In Makati, the average asking price for small condos is P132,073 per square meter, slightly lower than the city’s average of P139,503 per square meter, the report said. Lamudi said the average cost for smaller condos in Quezon City and Taguig stand at P123,431 per square meter and P118,634 per square meter, respectively, compared to the cities’ averages of P111,241 and P125,032. 2/ Foreigners snap up PH condo units / "new" Concept: Versailles Stay Manila Standard Today-2 May 2015 This is a new concept, a new market,” she says. ... At One Central ...Gil Puyat Ave., H.V. Dela Costa and Geronimo Streets in Salcedo Village, MakatiCity. . . . She decided to talk to the foreign owners of the condo units and broached the idea of her company managing the units for short-term and long-term lease in exchange for rental dividend. Her proposal was warmly accepted, and the result is Versailles Stay, the first brand of rental management for high-end residences in the Philippines. “We offer to manage the properties that they will purchase. Because they are not here, no one will maintain the units, no one will pay taxes and the association dues on time. That’s why Versailles Stay was born,” she says. “I think we are the first.” “We just put a name for the service that we want to offer, which is rental management and property care. We have decided to use the name Versailles Stay. This is a new concept, a new market,” she says. Sumida describes Versailles Stay as a rental management solution for fully furnished, high-quality residences offering dependable property care for unit owners and developers and value-for-money, convenient stay for guests. Premium Prices Perez says an overnight accommodation at Versailles Stay ranges from P4,000 to P5,000, inclusive of breakfast and WiFi connection. Food is served by Manila Catering, which is the exclusive meal provider of Cebu Pacific and Air Asia. “We even give discounts. Forty percent of our clients right now is corporate, 40 percent, walk in. The rest are online travel agents,” he says. . . . Perez says Versailles Stay started operation in August 2014. “We started third quarter of last year. We opened with only 10 units. A month later, we added another 10, and a month later, another 10. Now, we have 50 units. The last 10 units were added this month. The average take-up right now is 40 to 50 percent. Our target number of inventory is 100 in this building alone, maybe by the third quarter this year. It really depends on take-up,” he says. . . . “We manage 200 units, but only 50 of the 200 are being operated as dailies or short-term rents. The others are being leased out, for one year to two years,” he says. Perez says the Versailles Stay serves the interest of developers, unit owners and guests. “Because of Versailles Stay, the developer has an easy time to sell units to prospective buyers. The units that we manage here are owned 100-percent by foreigners. Then, we manage these units. We take care of servicing their association dues. On top of that, we deploy our staff in the lobby as well to make sure those who come to us are guided and introduced properly. In a sense, we serve as a sort of second line of defense for the developer. We provide extra security for them,” he says. “On the unit owners side, why would they buy here in the Philippines, when the most number of times they would probably visit is twice a year? We make sure that we furnish the units. We maintain the units. Most importantly, we find tenants for the units. They benefit from recurring rental dividend. Actually, all they have to do is just wait every month for the rental dividend,” says Perez. website: http://www.versaillesstay.com/ (Glut Talk is back - not surprisingly, with the big jump in supply in 2015, of 25% - see post #101) 3/ Condo glut in Metro Manila Now it can be told -- or at last openly, fearfully spoken about. Bloomberg reported late last week that “the capital region, Metro Manila, is in the grip of a building boom -- led by developers such as Megaworld Corp. and Ayala Land, Inc. -- that will add a record number of apartments over the next two years... threaten(ing) to lead to a glut that will weigh on investors.” March 22, 2015 Developments have supplied more than 500,000 units built from 2001 to 2013 in the National Capital Region (NCR/Metro Manila) alone. The majority of Metro Manila condos are in Makati City, about 80%, according to the Home and Land Use Regulatory Board (HLURB) -- judging only on licenses to sell issued. Now the Bloomberg article in BusinessWorld worries seriously about the glut in Metro Manila, where an estimated 55,000 finished residential units will come into the market this year, according to brokers CBRE Group Inc. Construction will begin this year in NCR on 130,000 condo units, KMC MAG Properties said. Will there be more buyers? Predicted unsold inventory will bring down lease rates to 3%-4% this year, down from the average 5% since 2011, according to KMC MAG research. Re-sales in time of glut will mean sacrifice on pricing. Yet spending by property companies will rise 18% to more than P300 billion ($6.8 billion) in 2015 from last year, according to broker Savills Plc. Ayala Land Inc. is reported to be spending P100 billion this year. Robinsons Land Inc. will plunk P17 billion into property development, up 20% from last year. SM Prime Holdings Inc. has budgeted P70 billion for property in 2015, 17% higher than last year. Megaworld will spend P230 billion in the next four years to build townships across the country. Real estate groups and brokers warned that “developers are now prepared to push their pricing for development land by 20%-30% over previous highs.” “At least 70% of our projects are sold in the first year of pre-selling, and that’s the norm for us; there hasn’t been a change,” according to Megaworld SVP Jericho Go, as quoted in BusinessWorld. There’s that word “pre-selling” that is the spoiler to the emerging plot of a likely bubble burst in the property market. The developer, given a go-signal by the HLURB upon approval of the project, is allowed to pre-sell condo units in the proposed development to the public, even before construction has begun. What does this mean for buyer and seller? To the buyer, he/she has paid for the unit, either in cash or installment, and has presumably locked in on the pricing based on today’s costs. Of course, it must be acknowledged that seller’s assured profit after construction costs until delivery will have been tucked in the selling price. A critical assumption for the buyer would be that market price for the unit bought in pre-selling would be a resale price upon delivery that would have reflected at least a return of principal plus the cost of money for the five years construction waiting time. What if there is no appreciation of value of the property upon delivery? == > more: http://www.bworldonline.com/content.php?section=Opinion&title=condo-glut-in-metro-manila&id=104829

Trying out Retirement in Chiang Mai, Thailand We live in a 968-square-foot condominium in the center of Chiang Mai, the principal city in northern Thailand. We have two balconies overlooking a large wooded farm -- an uncommon rural oasis in this growing city. Despite this, we're close to everything -- trendy cafés, glitzy malls, and craft beer pubs. Living in the center of a modern city for less than the price of many small towns in Canada is one of the reasons we like it here. Our delicious coffee is locally grown and we get it at a small shop nearby for about $6 a pound. It's easy to head out to the street to pick up a fresh bag of sticky rice and a few skewers of barbecued meat for a couple of dollars. By 7 a.m., the street vendors on every corner are serving hungry customers, both local and foreign. If we're feeling lazy and want a slice of home, there's no shortage of restaurants serving enormous, tasty, Western-style breakfasts from as low as $2 for the basic eggs, bacon, and toast. Ten years ago, I would have laughed if you'd told me that I would retire in Asia... Over the next six years, we lived in an exciting city of 10 million people at small-town prices, and we traveled throughout Asia. We fell in love with Southeast Asian culture and the people. When I reached age 60 in China, it became more difficult to renew my work visa. I decided that 30 years in the classroom was enough... Trying out retired life in Chiang Mai is easy and fairly commitment-free. Short-term rentals at good prices are easy to find. And obtaining a renewable, one-year retirement visa is simple. Finding a place to live was easy. Small houses and studio condos can be found for as low as $200 to $300 a month. However, lower-priced properties tend to be outside the city proper. . . . Luckily, Chiang Mai has other options. For our one-bedroom, two-bathroom condo, the monthly rent is less than $600, including the HOA fee. There is also a large outdoor pool and several businesses on the first floor, including a couple of restaurants, coffee shops, and a massage parlor. Trendy Nimmanhemin road, with its upscale condos and eateries, designer boutiques, and popular bars, is only a 10-minute walk away. At the corner of Nimman is the new Maya Mall, where we go every week to watch the latest blockbusters. The same theater hosts an International Film Festival every year, where you can watch current films from around the world for no admission fee. Walking in the other direction takes us to the charming old part of town, which is surrounded by a 700-year-old moat and is home to most of the city's 300 Buddhist temples. The old city really comes alive every Sunday, when Ratchadomoen Road becomes a walking street, complete with a craft market, local dancers, and musicians. . . . More than 30,000 expats live in the city, and the active expat club holds monthly meetings. Its local interest groups include everything from hiking to computers to photography. Add the abundance of volunteer opportunities, classes of all sorts, and inexpensive trips to nearby exotic locations, and time passes quickly. We have grown to love the wonderful people, food, and climate of Southeast Asia == > http://www.huffingtonpost.com/internationallivingcom/retire-in-thailand_b_7092900.html

KITCO Articles HSBC Lowers ’15, ’16 Silver Forecasts Despite Growing Supply Deficit - Kitco News, May 11 2015 4:14PM Gold Weaker Amid Bearish Technicals, Outside Markets - Kitco News, May 11 2015 1:28PM Does Gold Have A Strong Base? - Frank Holmes - Kitco Video News, May 11 2015 1:59PM === === Despite tighter silver supplies, commodity analysts at HSBC are lowering their price forecast for 2015 and 2016, the international bank said in a report Monday. The bank said that it now expects silver prices to average $17.05 an ounce in 2015 and $18.25 an ounce for 2016, down from their previous forecast of $17.65 and $20.50, respectively. At the same time, the bank left its 2017 and long-term forecast unchanged at $12 and $24, respectively. “While the underlying supply/demand fundamentals are supportive, weak investment demand has weighed on prices; a reversal in the USD and better commodity prices may improve investor demand,” the bank said in the report. Like gold, the silver market has been negatively impacted by an over-powering U.S. dollar in the wake of growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will hike rates sometime this year, the analysts said; however, they do see some positives in the marketplace that should help support prices. The bank said that the biggest support for the silver market will be a widening of the metal’s supply deficit. They are expecting the deficit to grow to 87 million ounces, from 5 million ounces last year. According to the report, HSBC expects to see total silver supply to be about 1.025 billion ounces with demand totaling about 1.112 billion ounces. SLV and GLD vs. TLT ... update Greece and European Union/International Monetary Fund negotiations on Greece’s debt restructuring continued Monday, as Tuesday is the deadline for Greece to make a 750 million Euro payment to the IMF. The Euro currency was under pressure Monday due to worries Greece will default on this week’s payment or future debt payments. Short-term Greece government bonds saw yields above 20% Monday, which is not a good signal of European Union investor confidence in Greece surviving in its present form in the EU. Early on today, gold did see some slight safe-haven demand from the situation. The Bank of England held its interest rates unchanged following its regular meeting Monday. No BOE rate change was expected. The London P.M. fix is $1,189.25 versus the previous A.M. fixing of $1,184.75. Technically, June gold futures prices closed near mid-range today. Gold bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a down-trending channel on the daily bar chart... July silver futures prices closed nearer the session low today. Silver bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the May high of $16.765 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the April low of $15.595. . . . Kitco News kicks off the week with Frank Holmes as gold prices see a bit of a boost Monday morning following a surprise rate cut from China and worries over Greece’s debt problems. Although gold is back down, Frank says he thinks the metal has a strong base. “I think the demand out of China…is going to be substantially greater this year.” Frank also comments on gold stocks and how he sees the GDX and GDXJ performing better. “Gold stocks are leading the way,” he says.

Stanton neighborhood (just above Brewerytown) == Zillow, foreclosure sales : http://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/fore_lt/pmf_pt/2102658803_zpid/days_sort/39.993084,-75.171762,39.975525,-75.19927_rect/14_zm/?view=map = Interesting? These properties are next to / or near park & reservoir Why? ? /Property location---- : USD price : yield / Rent / Mkt-R : Valuation : - Zillow / SizeSF : Built : Comment 1805 N 33rd St /4BR,4ba : $030,900 -n/a- @$0,-n/a / 0,000= $00.0psf : $081,292 / 0,000sf b.19 ?? : Foreclosure - 25d.on Z. 3127 Morse St. /3BR,1ba : $009,900 -n/a- @$0,-n/a / 0,000= $00.0psf : $000,000 / 0,854sf b.19 ?? : Foreclosure prop. (other foreclosures available in the same neighborhood) It turns out that Stanton has a predominant demographic character: "Stanton is a neighborhood located in North Philadelphia. Stanton is bounded by York Street to the north, 16th Street to the east, Sedgley Avenue to the west, and Cecil B. Moore Avenue to the south. Stanton is 82.5% African American, 9.4% white, 4% Hispanic, and 4% other." == > http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanton,_Philadelphia Compare with another area with a strong demographic character: Chinatown "As of the 2000 U.S. Census, the service area of the Philadelphia Chinatown Development Corporation had 1,362 residents in 459 households. Of the residents, 1,085 were Asian American, 152 were White American, 71 were African American, 31 were of other races, and 23 were Hispanic American. During that year the community had 509 housing units, with 50 of them being vacant and 85 of them being owner occupied. As of 1998 the wider Chinatown area had about 4,000 residents. Many of them worked in clothing assembly companies, restaurants, and related suppliers located in the area. As of that year, most residents were Chinese American. As of the 1990 U.S. Census the median income of Chinatown was under $15,000. The median income of the 47,000 residents of Center City Philadelphia as a whole was $60,000. As of 2000, of the 4,000 residents of the wider area, about 70% have no English fluency." == > http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinatown,_Philadelphia

Me: A developer? No. That's not what I plan. But I want to know how they operate, so I can make better decisions about what properties I might buy for the long term. I don't know, for instance, whether it might be better to buy a property next to a vacant lot. I suppose it could be better since if the neighborhood gentrifies enough, a developer might pay more for my property, if he plans to build something on a vacant lot next door. It's just a thought. I am also looking into potential mortgage lending terms, to see if banks favor single homes, over multiple family. (Probably) ================================ Banks (not brokers) making Home Loans in Philadelphia TOP Six banks (67% market share) ======= Bank of America (3925 Walnut Street) : https://mortgage.bankofamerica.com/pennsylvania/philadelphia Citizens Bank (134 South 34th street) : PNC Bank (900 Walnut St) : https://www.pnc.com/homehq/en/home/campaigns/closing-cost-offer-pdsj.html Santander / Sovereign Bank (3131 Market Street) : TD Bank (3735 Walnut Street) : http://www.tdbank.com/ Wells Fargo (3431 Chestnut Street) : === "Philadelphia has been dominated for many years by six big banks for many years — Wells Fargo, TD, Citizens, PNC, Bank of America and Santander Bank (formerly Sovereign). The big six increased its combined market share slightly to 67.24 percent from 66.7 percent last year." == > more: http://www.bizjournals.com/philadelphia/news/2014/09/29/shakeup-among-philadelphias-largest-deposit-takers.html?page=all OTHER Banks: http://mojo.myfoxphilly.com/best/banks/philadelphia-area Beneficial Bank Customers Bank Fulton Bank M&T Bank Polonia Bank ( Xxx ) : http://www.poloniabank.com/ Republic Bank (1601 Walnut St) : BB&T / Susquehanna Bank /SUSQ ( Xxx ) : https://www.susquehanna.net/default.aspx United Savings Bank ( Xxx ) : http://www.unitedsavingsbank.com/index.aspx Valley Green / Univest B&Tr (2000 Market St.) : (non-banks): + American Financial Resources : https://www.afrmortgage.com/about-us.php#null

The risk of colloidal silver? A Look Back at the Man Who Turned Blue | The Oprah Winfrey Show | Oprah Winfrey Network Published on Sep 3, 2014 Original airdate: February 19, 2008 In 2008, the world met Paul Karason, a man who literally turned blue after taking copious amounts of colloidal silver, a once-popular home remedy, having both drunk it and rubbed it on his skin. Five years later, at 62 years old, this medical wonder and Internet sensation died of a heart attack unrelated to his silver intake. Watch the original Oprah Show interview as Oprah and Dr. Oz listen to Paul's story and try to figure out exactly how the shocking transformation came to be.

WHAT IS THE READING VIADUCT? The Reading Viaduct Project is dedicated to the preservation and remediation of The Reading Viaduct as a public open green space; to the creation of a unique elevated linear park to be used by residents of and visitors to the Greater Philadelphia area. The Viaduct, which carried trains into Center City for almost 100 years, is an elevated train track that transects diverse and rapidly redeveloping neighborhoods just north of the traditional boundary of Center City. Although seen by some as a blight, a redeveloped Viaduct will act as a magnet for residential and commercial development in the surrounding neighborhoods. Adaptive reuse of the Viaduct, in conjunction with ongoing investment and renovation in the surrounding neighborhoods, will both preserve and rejuvenate the former industrial heart of the City, while generating additional economic development and tax revenue for the City and Commonwealth. Built in the 1890s, the Viaduct is a combination of embankment sections, bridged by steel structures and arched masonry bridges, that runs 10 blocks through the Callowhill and Chinatown North neighborhoods, from Vine Street to Fairmount Avenue. Reading Railroad commuter trains used the 4.7-acre, mile-long Viaduct to access the Reading Headhouse Terminal at 12th and Market Street (currently the Grand Hall of the Pennsylvania Convention Center). Service on the Viaduct was discontinued in 1984, when the Center City commuter tunnel was opened. Today the Viaduct’s four elevated tracks have been overtaken by grasses and trees. It’s two branches offer spectacular views of immediate neighborhoods and the Philadelphia skyline. In 2003, local residents formed The Reading Viaduct Project for the purpose of advocating for the transformation of the Viaduct into an elevated linear park, in conjunction with the ongoing redevelopment of the surrounding neighborhoods. The Viaduct, with its 2 branches, is literally a bridge connecting several diverse communities. Beginning at Vine Street, between 11th and 12th, the Viaduct flows north from Chinatown to Callowhill Street where it branches to the west and northeast. The late 19th and early 20th Century industrial buildings that dot the landscape of this neighborhood (former automobile, bicycle, shoe, glass and balloon factories, to name a few), have attracted new investment, commercial development, and ever increasing numbers of new residents to the post-industrial landscape. == > http://readingviaduct.org/