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CENTURY CITY - Where are the jobs to support the spending by residents in this place? (Am I the only one asking this? How will these people get to their jobs? Where?) > more: http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=1441123&page=49

This is Mars 2015

Comments on SMDC's Air vs. Jazz ... and Megaworld's new launch nr. CG ========= Scale model. I looked closely if the balcony railings are made of glass -- and they are not! The railings are similar with those what we see in Light or Jazz. Exterior-wise, I had expected something extraordinary in this project as it is a premier brand. Sadly, it joins the roster of other uninspired, bland, and boring SMDC structures. : Air Model - 10/6/14 Good Investment? - 12/20/14: I think the best advice is to invest with the view you are going to stay there and have the funds to service the loan. This way, if you have a tenant then it's a blessing and if not, at least you can still continue to service the loan and enjoy the paper gain with the hope you can secure a tenant in the near future. Should you decide to flip when it is ready for occupancy, you would probably have made some paper gain but whether that will translate into any real gain will depend on how much the property has appreciated as you need to consider the broker's fee, sales tax etc into the equation. If you are considering using the rent to service the loan, it would be too risky if you cannot find a tenant for whatever reasons, you may be caught in a situation whereby you may have to sell at a loss. Personally I believe it is a good investment as both Rise and Air are in a good location. Don't forget there is a planned subway that is right next door where the Post Office is currently in. http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/business/...l-pass-through So while there may be other condos nearby, the benefit of having a subway so close to both Rise and Air may lend it some advantage in securing tenants. Megaworld launch - 12/27/14: Yes condo. Megaworld will launch one in Malugay, near City Gate and La Fuerza Compound (township) all by next year... These are mid end type which means prices are lower than Megaworld luxury end condos in Makati CBD. The one near City Gate is targeted to be launched at only 120k/sqm Air : Appreciation / & Demand- 2/4/15: I have reserved a 2 bed on level 56 (amenities/skyline view) and the 1 bed next door to it as well last year. My buddy then reserved the next 2 units along side mine so could be joining all our units together in the future, maybe lol. But I feel for best ROI its better to leave as is. Im predicting this project will aspire to be a good executive residence due to it accommodates office space as well unlike Jazz. Therefore the building is mixed use for functionality with very good amenities. I'm predicting the appreciation should be at least 30% by the time its complete in 2020 and its still currently well priced. Big advantage is the new subway to be built across the street in and proximity to the CBD. Agreed with previous post that Air lacks appeal but with graded cladding systems rather than systems used 5 years ago standing today should give it a shiny look at least. / Yes I am an international broker and partnered with SMDC here in Middle East . . . Looking at the live prices VIA my SMDC portal Id say 60% Sold. Very strong interest with investors who are buying in bulk from abroad just recently Sales look good - 2/5/2015 Air Residences launch for sale last August 27, 2014 and As of today! Available ---------- : 2200 unit(s) Not Available Unit : 1442 unit(s) Average sold is 288 units per month. == > source: http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=1456032&page=14

This article today caught my interest Hang Seng looks set to cash in on bank rise - The Standard (pg.10, Business) HK11 / Hang Seng Bank ... update HS Bank is considering selling its 10.9 percent stake in China's Industrial Bank, but may first divest of half of its stake HK:1398 / Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. (HKG) / ... update Industrial Bank's shares have soared 54 percent in the past year, giving the lender a market value of US$43.8 billion HS share x 10.9% = US$ 4.77bn = HKD37.4 billion I wonder if it would put most of that cash into property lending in HK?

Cheung Kong has lowered its sales target for 2015 Last year, it was HK $40 billion, based on 3,900 units sold in HK : over $10mn /unit For 2015, it is only HK$30 billion, based on 4,000 units : that's $7.5mn / unit (The units may exclude units outside HK, while including revenues from China, etc.) Justin Chiu Kwok-hung expects HK "home prices to gain no more than 10%" Eight projects will be launched in HK, with La Lumiere in Hung Hom, expected later this month

US HOME OWNERSHIP : Lowest in 20 Years Rising household formation owing to stronger labour market and easing of credit seen boosting home building in the year ahead US homeownership fell to a 20 year low (ie. since Q3-1994) in Q4-2014. But a sharp rebound in the rate at which Americans are setting up home, is expected to drive a pick-up in housing + The Ownership rate peaked in in 2004 at 69.4 percent, and fell to 64.3 percent at the end of 2014 + Household formations were at 1.7 million in Q4-2014, up from 356,000 in Q4-2013, with gains driven by renters + Housing has lagged the acceleration in the economy, but with growing economy, and steps to ease credit, it is expected to gain The combination of: a high percentage of young adults living in the parental home, falling rates, and loosening credit should help buying demand for homes (says Paul Diggle, at Capital Economics, in London) "We are optimistic for the next few years." Residential Rental vacancy rate dropped 0.4% to 7.0% in Q4-2014, the lowest since 1993. This will help to raise rental costs, and make home-buying more attractive. "The decade long decline in the share of the population that own their home, may now be drawing to an end," says Diggle.

Oil Jump and pullback on Tuesday Feb.: -SPY-: Chg : volume/ -GDX : Chg. : -GLD- : Chg : volume: x10.3? : WTI.Cr: -DXY-- -Chg- : --TLT--: -Chg- : Posts= / Views: cum'l 01: 199.45 - sun- : 000.M: 22.29 +0.00 : 123.45 - sun-: 00.0M: 1,283.7 $47.85* 94.846 +0.000 : 138.28 +0.00 : 07 : 007 / 066 : 0,066 / 02: 201.92 +2.47 : 151.M: 22.45 +0.16 : 122.45 - 1.03 : 8.66M: 1,274.4 $49.83* 94.627 - 0.219 : 137.48 - 0.52 : 05 : 012 / 045 : 0,111 / 03: 204.84 +2.92 : 115.M: 21.87 - 0.58 : 121.05 - 1.37 : 8.21M: 1,260.6 $51.57* 93.756 - 0.869 : 134.57 - 2.91 : 05 : 017 / 060 : 0,171 / WTI : high of Day : $54.24 - was up 8.87% from Monday - Price closed at -: $51.57 + 3.49% USO / US Oil etf ... update : $19.62 +$1.00 : 5.37% As Oil Prices Climb, Some Harbor Doubts Wall Street Journal-1 hour ago The benchmark U.S. oil price has surged 19% since Wednesday, the largest four-day percentage gain since January 2009. The jump follows a ... UPDATE 10-Oil jumps as dollar dives, crude up 19 pct in 4 days Reuters-1 hour ago

Yes. The WARNING loses its force when they fail (have failed?) to act I reckon they will do something before CNY My suggestion would be to collect a 1% surchage (per annum) on loans, and then rebate it, when the property is sold

This Is What Philadelphia Will Look Like in 15 Years No, this isn’t a look at how Philly might advance technologically, (do you really think flying cars will be zooming down the Schuylkill Expressway in 2030?) rather, it’s a glimpse at how our germinating population (which has surely proved itself as one of the main driving forces behind all the retail projects and new constructions sprouting up), will continue to shape over the course of fifteen years. Using ever-useful “historical trends and census data”, The Urban Land Institute has developed a nifty interactive tool (you can zoom into various cities and alter data trends like birth and death rates for different outcomes) that shows us how continuing population shifts will affect us. The results? It's estimated that the Greater Philadelphia Area could see a 6.50 percent population increase. Read more at http://www.phillymag.com/property/2015/01/22/philadelphia-population-growth-in-15-years-urban-land-institute/#AXvPKBkIlQ2is760.99

01-24-15 – Sustainable Lifeboat Part 1: USA Prepares By "Dr. Richard Alan Miller" Captions By CVMCoNews.com - Published on Jan 24, 2015 - Subscribe to; http://DocRAM.com see upcoming events for Dr. Richard Alan Miller as USA Prepares, giving you practical information on what you need to do for the survival of your friends & family! Sustainable Lifeboat Part 2: USA Prepares By "Dr. Richard Alan Miller" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B7LMkMbpcrc&list=UUisjViRg-_Yk4QLXjtQH1Mg&index=2 Sustainable Lifeboat Part 3: USA Prepares By "Dr. Richard Alan Miller" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aPsx1iwrMwE&index=3&list=UUisjViRg-_Yk4QLXjtQH1Mg

Cooling moves ready as housing heats up Adam Xu / February 03, 2015 All necessary steps will be taken to prevent the local housing market from overheating, said Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung Bing- leung amid frenetic price rises in resales of both private and public units. In the meantime Hong Kong Monetary Authority chief executive Norman Chan Tak-lam said the property market faces an uncertain outlook with interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve on the horizon, but there is room for more anti-cyclical measures should an upward cycle be confirmed. The Transport and Housing Bureau will report results of its review of the Special Stamp Duty and Buyer's Stamp Duty to the Legislative Council's House Committee next month. Cheung said that had the stamp duties not been introduced in 2012 and 2013, local property prices would have jumped even higher. >more: http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_detail.asp?we_cat=11&art_id=153895&sid=43812316&con_type=1&d_str=20150203&fc=2

Shell starts 10-year shutdown of Brent oilfield Brent Oil Anglo-Dutch energy group gears up to dismantle the first of four platforms in biggest offshore lift ever + Dismantling is a multibillion dollar project over 10 years + There will be a public consultation on the disposal of the "topside" of the Brent Delta platform + It may involve the lifting of a 23,500 tonne steel platform onto a giant ship, the Pieter Schelte, in the biggest lift ever attempted + The second stage, of dealing with the legs, is still under discussion Shell alone has over 30 platforms, and dismantling costs are estimated at GBP 40 billion (?) There are 470 installations in the North Sea Left alone, the platforms would take thousands of years to erode, if left in place

Getting to know... Makati Comment from SSC: "Can't help but notice Henry Sy's cluster of buildings. What an eyesore." > http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?s=7a4b616e34175de2bc36e4128a4cd15e&t=1443736&page=37 From the main CBD, looking towards Trump Tower, etc Looking back from Century City Jazz Residence is by SMDC (Henry Sy) A "yawn" to look at this ! But profitable to build this way: > source: http://www.makaticondounits.com/forbes-henry-sy-still-philippines-richest/

Yet Another Warning from the IMF – This Time on “Shadow Banking http://lonestarwhitehouse.blogspot.com/2015/02/yet-another-warning-from-imf-this-time.html Excerpt: Non-financial corporations have raised $1.3 trillion (£860bn) through shadow banking in the US alone,” he told the Telegraph.” “The IMF estimates that contingent liabilities of these shadow forms of lending have reached $15 trillion in the US, using a “broad” measure of activities that captures new forms of risk. This is higher than in China. It is roughly 180pc of banking assets and is rising rapidly towards its pre-Lehman peak. It is particularly worrying since it was a “run” on the interlinked world of structured finance that caused the global crisis to metastasise in 2008.” “Zhu Min said the oil price crash is “terrific news” for consumers but warned that its effects are double-edged and raise a whole new set of risks. It may set off a fiscal crisis in producer countries and a debt-repayment crunch for oil companies with $1 trillion of bonds.” “The concerns were echoed by David Rubenstein, head of the Carlyle Group, who said the slide in oil prices to $50 a barrel is likely to set off a chain of defaults by Russian companies that owe $650bn of external debt.” “They can’t service the debt. And who owns that debt? It is nearly all held by European banks. They are going to be hurt, and I suspect that currency turbulence in Europe is going to hurt them too,” he said.”

LOHAS can also be compared with Caribbean Coast, in Tung Chung. (similar prices) And, of course, to Park Central in TKO, and Taikoo Shing (TKS) on HK Island. LOHAS has for a long time been about 50% of TKS mo: CariC: Lohas: PkCen: TaikSh: L/TKS : 13 : 6,336 : 6,146 : 7,551 : 12,149 : F. : 6,325 : 6,315 : 8,650 : 11,939 : M : 6,160 : 6,339 : 8,372 : 12,131 : 52.3% A : 5,877 : 6,295 : 7,661 : 11,710 : M : 6,130 : 6,074 : 7,810 : 11,847 : J. : 6,233 : 6,170 : 8,237 : 12,021 : 51.3% Jl : 6,021 : 6,189 : 8,387 : 12,001 : A : 5,686 : 6,116 : 7,854 : 11,853 : S : 6,004 : 6,064 : 8,204 : 11,950 : 50.7% O : 5,768 : 6,020 : 7,872 : 10,869 : N : 5,961 : 6,084 : 7,847 : 10,864 : D : 5,768 : 5,910 : 7,797 : 10,552 : 56.0% 14 : 5,809 : 6,146 : 7,722 : 10,936 : F. : 5,758 : 5,692 : 7,970 : 11,892 : M : 5,695 : 5,901 : 7,777 : 11,392 : 51.8% A : 5,660 : 5,666 : 7,246 : 12,592 : M : 5,603 : 5,913 : 7,756 : 11,294 : J. : 6,081 : 5,845 : 8,066 : 12,134 : 48.2% Jl : 5,810 : 6,044 : 7.817 : 11,552 : A : 6,076 : 6,070 : 8,796 : 12,268 : S : 6,346 : 6,159 : 8,944 : 12,705 : 48.5% O : 6,356 : 6,236 : 8,336 : 12,668 : N : 6,275 : 6,296 : 8,801 : 12,678 : D : 6,141 : 6,296 : 9,242 : 13,301 : 47.3% 15 : 6,538 : 6,356 : 9,168 : 12,627 : 50.3% I think the 50% discount to TKS is too big, especially since properties at LOHAS Park are new, and TKS is very old. I see it narrowing over time, as: + More trains roll into LOHAS (it is now 1:3 or 1:4), and + More shopping is added at LOHAS in future years

A Hot Wave of Sales at Long Beach ======= (per Midland) Block Floor : - Date -- : $Price- / Net = per Sq.Ft : Gross = per Sq.Ft TW5 : Mid. : 30/01/15 : $8.68M / 558 = $15,556 : 742 = $11,698 TW6 : Mid. : 30/01/15 : $8.28M / 546 = $15,165 : 742 = $11,159 TW5 : Low : 26/01/15 : $8.68M / 556 = $15,612 : 743 = $11,682 Tw3 : High : 25/01/15 : $8.65M / 549 = $15,756 : 741 = $11,673 TW5 : Mid. : 25/01/15 : $8.80M / 564 = $15,603 : 752 = $11,702 TLB Index - per Centaline Nearby Park Avenue/ Cent. Park - in TKT : update Meantime, a down week in the CL Index Week : CCLI : CMMI : RobinPl: Tregun : Dynast : Clovell/ IslHarb: ParkAv: Waterf : Sorrent : TArch : C'ribC : TaikSh. Numb.: ( #1) (#2,4): ( --#6): (--#7): (--#8) : (--#9)/ (--#7) (--#8): (-#12) : (--#13): (-#14) (#-3) : (#21) ==== . . 01/25: 134.03 135.01: 15,587 : 19,554 : 24,903 : 22,368 /11,378: 12,466 : 13,970 : 17,147 : 21,797 : 6,538 : 12,627 : 01/18: 134.64 135.73: 15,608 : 19,581 : 24,936 : 22,398 /11,366: 12,311 : 13,997 : 17,179 : 21,838 : 6,079 : 13,586 : Private flat supply hits 8-year high - SCMP Number of completed units up 89pc last year + 15,700 units completed in 2015 + construction started on 17,300 units, up from 14,100 in 2013 + starting the transition to a period of more sustainable flat supply + some 74,000 new homes expected over next 3-4 years (74,000/4 = 18,500 per year) + Supply expected to be maintained at 15,000 -18,000 in the next few years

XLE / Select Sector SPDR-Energy (ETF) ... update CVX / Chevron ... update LUKOY / Lukoil ... update

It was less than 24 hours after we posted that either oil will double from here allowing energy companies to grow into a normal P/E multiple, or energy stocks will have to crash by over 40% for the ridiculous 23x to return to its normal, long-term average of 13.6x. Moments ago energy giant Chevron admitted that not only does it not see oil doubling any time soon, but that energy prices are almost certain to go far lower from here, and as a result the company decided that after buying back $5 billion of its shares in 2014, i.e., buying high and higher before the stock crashes may not be the best use of dwindling cash flow, and as a result has just suspended its stock buyback program of the rest of 2015. Yes, energy giant Chevron just ended its buyback! Also did we mention Chevron's "dwindling cash flow"? Good: here's why: DRILLING RIG RATES HAVE FALLEN AS MUCH AS 50%: CHEVRON CEO CHEVRON SAYS DROP IN GLOBAL OIL PRICES SQUEEZE CASH FLOW It's not just buybacks that are out of the window. So is CapEx.. CHEVRON SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCING EXPLORATION, DESIGN SPENDING THIS YEAR'S CAPEX CUTS WILL IMPACT OIL OUTPUT POST-2017: CVX ... and SG&A: CHEVRON REVIEWING STAFF LEVELS AROUND THE WORLD, CEO SAYS Finally, all those who are so sure a surge in oil prices and energy stocks is just around the corner, here is a little more cold water: WORLD ENERGY DEMAND FAIRLY MATCHES WORLD ECONOMIC GROWTH CVX DOESN'T SEE MUCH CHANGE IN WORLD ENERGY DEMAND ON GROWTH But the financial comedy TeeVee said it was all an "excess-OPEC supply" problem? * * * And for everyone who missed it yesterday, here again is "Either Oil Soars Back To $88, Or Energy Stocks Have To Tumble By Over 40%" Several days ago we showed something remarkable: "current forward 12-month P/E ratio for the Energy sector is now well above the three most recent historical averages: 5-year (12.0), 10-year (11.9), and 15-year (13.6).

Citygate Area at night

Highway Diary w/ Eric Hollerbach Ep 98 - Kerry Cassidy

This is the area of Ayala's Premier brand properties in Makati It includes: Park Terraces and Garden Towers Modern Living TV: Episode 4 (Segment 4) : Garden Towers Philippine Star: 622 views https://www.youtube.com/watch?x-yt-ts=1422327029&v=Bs-2ScpQN6s&x-yt-cl=84838260 Published on Aug 11, 2014 The Philippine STAR presents #‎ModernLivingTV: A series that will give the viewers a taste of a life full of pleasant experiences derived from breathtaking living spaces, well-organized and peaceful communities, and state-of-the-art residential and recreational facilities available. ------------- Episode 4: GREEN LIVING Segment 1 - Green Architecture (with Architect Paulo Alcazaren) Segment 2 - Organic and Natural Products with Chit Juan Segment 3 - Garden Towers of Ayala Land Premiere - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eT98Q... Segment 4 - Raising an eco-conscious family with Bianca Araneta-Elizalde #11: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LeX92zIMEDw

Milano Residence at Century City : Nice looking building. But who is going to live in alll these expensive buildings a very long walk from jobs in the Makati CBD? Can you imagine what the queue's for taxis and buses will look like in the mornings? And what happens when it is raining ? The following will give you some idea of the distances involved - CBD is on the left:

Glut Feeling - article in Lex-in-depth, FT The oil industry is struggling to cope with lower oil prices so what would happen if there was no rebound and $50 Oil became the New Normal ? Which groups would be squeezed, and which would survive? After a drop from $110 to $50 in just a few months... "it is not obvious what oil will do next" Some believe the price could stay at $45-65 for five years + REFINING may become favored over E&P... which may steadily dwindle, + There will be a strategic shift from growth to capital preservation (the balance sheet will be favored) + This decline may be most like the 1980's-90's fall, the longest lasting of the last three + Some believed that the emergence of China may be enough to hold prices up... It was not + In prior drops, there were many mergers + From 2008 -2014, oil related debts doubled. + Goldman 2014 study showed that less than 1/3 of Oil projects breakeven at $70 (!) + Many projects have complex ownership, making restructuring more difficult LOSERS: Those that cannot breakeven will seek fresh capital, or mergers. Petrobras has huge debts, but also low production costs, so should "struggle on" Santos will struggle with its debts Governments have been big beneficiaries thru taxes, these will be lower Oil service companies may be the biggest losers of all Deep oil drillers like Transocean will be hard-hit WINNERS: (and relative winners) The major integrated oil co's, like Exxon and Shell (and Chevron) They have strong balance sheets, and had started cutting costs Higher dividend payout rates had been achieved, and divs may now suffer

OIL PRICE DATA: What if Oil prices stay down thru 2016 ? OIL CYCLES ... another 1-2 years before ultimate low? (Tony Caldaro is not so bearish - see post #18) ==== A few years later, I thought I would try to do the same for Oil prices. I studied historical prices, and came up with the notion of a web of interlocking oil price cycles. I also wrote an article about it. A short one, of about three pages: 1991 article:"Cycling Towards Low Oil Prices" http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=611 The article suggested cycles of: 2.4 years, 8.3 years, and 30 years This projects an Oil Peak in 1980 +30 years = 2010, could that be $2010+/-2 years .. PB / B: (it was interesting to learn that Harry Dent now uses an Oil price cycle of 30 years !) The article got some attention. For instance, I got a call from an oil trader at P***** Energy, but overall, it got nothing like the attention that my earlier work on shipping cycles had generated, so I used the oil cycles in suggesting hedging strategies to my oil derivatives clients- and they nearly always made money... Some Eiliott Wave analysts have provided some preductions of Oil prices that suggest the major Low will not be in place until sometime in 2016: UPDATE Turn : WTI : Ratio : USO : Timing - - - High: $110?: 2.78E: 39.54 : 06 Sep 2013 High: $100?: 2.54E: 39.44 : 20 Jun 2014 High: 62.58: 2.98E: 21.00 : 05 May 2015 Low : 26.05: 3.396: $7.67 : 11 Feb 2016 High: 51.67: 4.150: 12.45 : 08 Jun 2016 Low : 39.19: 4.246: $9.23 : 03 Aug 2016 High: 55.24: 4.603: 12.00 : 03 Jan 2017 Low : 42.05: 4.861: $8.65 : 21 Jun 2017 High: 76.90: 4.735: 16.24 : 03 Oct 2018 Low : 42.36: 4.589: $9.23 : 26 Dec 2018 High: 66.60: 4.809: 13.85 : 23 Apr 2019 ==== USO / US Oil etf ... 10yr: 5yr: 2yr: 1yr: === RATIO Timing : - GLD-: x7.5%: -USO-: WT/u: -WTI-: Gold; wt/Au: 200 5ye: $51.58: 00.00e 00.0%: 2006ye: $63.21: $51.60: 81.6%: 2007ye: $82.46: $75.76: 91.9%: 2008ye: $86.52: $33.10: 38.3%: 2009ye: 107.31: $39.28: 36.6%: 2010ye: 138.72: $39.00: 28.1%: 0.000: $00.00/ 1405.5= 2011ye: 151.99: $38.11: 25.1%: 2.391: $91.12/ 1531.0= 5.95% 2012ye: 162.62: $33.37: 20.5%: 2.721: $90.80/ 1657.5= 5.48% 2013ye: 116.12: $35.32: 30.4%: 2.811: $99.29/ 1204.5= 8.24% 2014ye: 113.58: $20.36: 17.9%: 2.658: $54.12/ 1206.0= 4.49% 2015ye: 101.48: $11.00: 10.8%: 3.370: $37.07/ 1060.5= 3.50% 2016ye: 109.61: $11.72: 10.7%: 4.584: $53.72/ 1151.7= 4.66% 2017ye: 123.65: $12.01: 9.71%: 5.031: $60.42/ 1309.3= 4.61% 2018ye: 121.25: $ 9.66: 7.96%: 4.701: $45.41/ 1281.3= 3.54% 11.4.19: 142.15: $11.81: 8.31%: 4.787: $56.54/ 1511.1= 3.74%

Why did the US go into Iraq? Near the beginning of this... Dr RAM gives a reason you may not have heard The Liberty Men interview the amazing Dr Richard Alan Miller Part 1 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smnVy6Dlopc