drbubb

A "throw-over" at the Top... and a "throw-under"? (haha)

Key Test coming for Bellwether HK property stock ? Henderson Land / HK:12 ... update

Yeah - the retest looks very, very likely now. These charts may fit here

(I pay attention to news like this... about Repurposing Industrial areas) KWAI CHUNG BUILDING WILL BECOME A MALL (near KCC) SHKP to take advantage of HK revitalization scheme to turn a 40-year-old industrial facility into a 10-storey shopping outlet + Luen Tai Industrial Building (Kwai Chung Rd, Kwai Chung) will be converted + Adjacent to Kowloon Commerce Centre (KCC) + The Mall is expected to open in the middle of 2015 + Govt's revitalisation plan was announced in 2009, for old industrial buildings + Owners can avoid paying land premiums + This is the first conversion into a mall : .. a Ginza-style vertical mall (different themes, on each floor) .. a curtain wall, and decent size: 100,000 sf .. linked by walk-way to KCC and to Kwai Hing MTR .. target market : shoppers of 25 to 49 years: Retail, F&B .. leasing to start: this month Previously, Millennium City in Kwun Tong was opened in 2005, and spurred a change in the area. It took seven years to convert the area into a new commercial area. MC : offers 330 mn sf, office + 900,000 sf, retail Area is changing: + The Open University opened new campus: Li Ka Shing Institute (at KCC) + The university will help generate traffic at the new mall + Kwai Hing is a populous area, but lacks a mall

What Next for SHKP ? SHKP / HK:16 ... update

NEW SALES PROCEDURES - (from an AX thread): (1) OTP, Over the last few years, how were new property sales handled regarding payment? Was it down payment and then the remainder upon receiving keys? Or was it down payment and then payment during milestones as estate is built? Or down payment with full payment soon thereafter? Also what is the deal with the check? If you cut a check, your lottery number is pulled but you choose to purchase nothing, I assume you lose that money? But if your number is never pulled then the amount is refunded? Is that all correct (and are we positive this is how it actually works?) As I understand it, HK new property sales historically were sold at premiums of 10-20% over local secondhand market properties. Now there is a complete reversal where new property is 0-20% below secondhand market prices. Feel free to correct me if any of the above is wrong (because I am genuinely unsure). (2) L-1: + The cheque with application - is not tied to a specific flat, it is NOT a downpayment, though it will be used as one, if you choose to go ahead and buy a specific flat. + Normally, you do not pay so much upfront as 100%. Maybe 30% within 60-90 days, and the rest on closing would be normal. And you can do that with The Visionary too, I believe. But you will not get the 10% discount. So 80-90-95% are going for the 10% discount, I have heard. + NO. You do not lose the money. Of course, you get your cheque back if you have a low number and do not choose a specific flat and sign an S&P contract. (I have handed over a cheque in the past, and had it back, or used it, the system works fine. It is all about a test of seriousness, and the larger the cheque, the more meaningful the test.) (3) OTP, So if I cut a check and my name is drawn but I don't actually want to buy anything, there is no loss on my side? If so then I fail to see what value this check system has at all. Cutting a check does involve a minor amount of hassle in that you actually need to fill out the check and hand it in... but if they aren't going to actually cash it then who really cares? The lottery would be a lot more serious if everyone who's name was drawn lost their check if they opted to not actually purchase an apartment. As it stands now (as I understand it... correct me if I am wrong though), it is little more than simply people writing their name on a cost-less lottery ticket and seeing if they get picked. Presumably there might even be free value in entering the lottery game because perhaps only 10% of the apartments are desirable, and if you are lucky enough to get picked for one you can instantly flip it to a person who actually wants to purchase it to live in. To me it seems like the check # is just a gimmick to make it appear as if there are lots of people who actually want to purchase these apartments. First off you can submit multiple checks and secondly (and most importantly) there is no potential loss in participating. (4) That is right. You must have some degree of seriousness to go to your bank, and pay for a bank-certified cheque - that's what the Builders normally require. The bank will block the funds, and charge you something, if you return it unused. This procedure cuts down on the frivolous interest, since people must have that much money in their banks, and will suffer a small loss for the processing charges from the bank. Obviously, the $300,000 cheque required at The Long Beach (an many other new projects such as The Avenue - I believe), is somewhat more meaningful than the $150,000 cheque required at The Visionary. THe larger cheque also cuts down on the multiple applications by those who really only want one flat, since they must block a larger amount of money for a week or two. FLIPPING? Not really possible since there is a 15% tax on selling within 12 months. It reduces after that, but you must pay something for as long as three years The government has done its best to kill all short term speculation. But first time buyers (who plan to hold for three years or more) are mostly unscathed. JUST A GIMMICK? Not at all. It provides an effective queueing and allocation system. But the "gaming" behaviour by the buyers does inflate numbers, and you must be aware of that - AND the fact that all flats offered for sale are not equally attractive. I think the Builders are relying on the agents (seeking their 3% commissions) and the time pressure the system puts on "successful" lottery "winners" to move the less attractive flats. When I look at TLB, I can see some flats that are obviously under-priced, and others that are overpriced. But this will not be so obvious to buyers who are less familiar with the building. I am sure this is true with any building. And the buying off-plan system means that most buyers are somewhat "blind" on what they are buying. For years, we have seen fat premiums being collected by Developers selling new flats off-plan. A more realistic world, with waits for keys (and so forth), might mean that New Flats are sold at a discount to the secondhand market. I predicted that a year ago, and some scoffed at my idea. Seems like it is already a reality - at least on the early batches of these new properties. THis means, as I said in the first post here: "HK's Property Developers (are taking) the brunt of this correction, especially in the early stages of the present correction" (5) @ Lucane01 - OffThePeak's summary is consistent with my experience. Back in 2002 - 2003, developers were also offering discounts to buyers who settled in full immediately rather than waiting until completion to make the final payments. IIRC,when we purchased a property 2002 we were offered a small discount (around 5% I think) for settling up front but decided that having to (i) service the first mortgage and (ii) using up some of the four year interest free period on the second mortgage, even before we had moved into the property meant we were better off not taking the discount. A 10% discount combined with the higher deposit ratios required today and no interest free second mortgage would probably have resulted in a different decision. === > AX: http://hongkong.asiaxpat.com/forums/hong-kong-property/threads/151878/hk-developers-game:-cut-prices?/

"Home-owners should not rely on being bailed out of any future difficulties" Huh? Isn't that what the govt is doing right now? Does he mean, it may not happen next time?

:Date- : GLD pr : Spot-Mid: Ratio : Tonnes : x 32,150 : US$-Value : Shs.OS / Chg.GLD : Chg.OZ : Chg.Value 2012: 12/31 : $162.02 : 1664.0 * : 10.270 : 1,351.0 : 43.44 Mn : $75.08 Bn : 463.4mn / ( changes below, vs. Year-End) 2013: 03/28 : $154.47 : 1598.25 : 10.347 : Lon.PM 06/28 : $119.11 : 1192.0K*: 10.008 : Lon.PM 07/05 : $118.09 : 1223.10 : 10.357 : 0,962.0 : 30.93 mn : $37.49 Bn : 317.5mn / - 27.11% : - 28.80% : - 50.07% 08/02 : $126.36 : 1313.40 : 10.394 : 0,918.6 : 29.54 mn : $38.65 Bn : 305.9mn / - 22.01% : - 32.00% : - 48.52% 08/30 : $134.90 : 1000.0K*: 10.000 : 0,921.0 : 29.61 mn : 09/27 : $127.96 : 1000.0K : 10.000 : 0,906.0 : 29.13 mn : 10/31 : $127.74 : 1000.0K : 10.000 : 0,872.0 : 27.85 mn : 11/29 : $120.70 : 1251.80 : 10.371 : 0,843.2 : 27.11 mn : $33.96 Bn : 281.4mn / - 25.50%: - 37.59% : - 54.77% ================= *K : Source is Kitco, London p.m. price GLD has shed 16.33 million ounces since year end. That is a monthly rate of about 1.5 million oz. and is annualised at 17.8 million oz. That's about 20.5% of estimated annual Gold production of 87 Million ounces. ====== * World : 2.700 tonnes : x 31.25k = 87 Million oz. : China : 0,370 tonnes ; x 31.25k = 11.6 Mn. oz. ====== SPDR Gold Holdings : http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=18018

GLD/ Gold closed Friday at $120.70 ($1,252.10)

Tung Chung area - Showing impact of New Property pricing Tung Chung seems to be one of the first areas to show some noticeable reduction in second-hand prices thanks to New property sales http://img17.imageshack.us/img17/3492/wva3.png Timing-- : -- Date -- : CCLIdx : CC-Gross : -CC-Net-- : Latest is- : 11-17-13 : 120.13 : $5,795/sf : $7,770/sf : Peak was : 03-10-13 : 122.98 : $6,441/sf : $8,636/sf : Change-- : + 8mo.s- : -2.33% : - 10.03 % : - 10.03% : ======== Why the drop? The Visionary has 1,410 flats to sell, and the initial launch was at $7,671/sf, Net after discount Why pay the same price for second hand (7-12 year old properties) when you can get "New" cheaper? The Visionary may also be closer than some CC properties to the new East Tung Chung MTR station

Volume is lighter on this drop - thank goodness

Interview by Vinnie Eastwood, NZ radio host Holographics & Fukushima Apocalypse Explained - Richard Alan Miller http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qAjFLSalFGU They started off talking about Vinnie E's Birthday Song

Bubbles are inevitable, if we think the economy can take no pain

New interview: Dr RAM interviewed by Kerry Cassidy. On FUKISHIMA, etc. : An extinction event ? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZOpuaEWFT4g Some material about his background (nice summary), then he talks about Fukishima "A series of events which can lead to human extinction." "It took a million years for the Earth to stabilize plutonium." "How do we handle it? WE marry it to glass and bury it... At some point, the glass breaks." "At Fukishima, there was no plan for how to deal with the waste." "Gangsters are involved in disposing of waste. And some of it is being dumped in Africa." "There are 17 Fukishima-like plants on the New Madrid fault lines." Four of the Six plants at Fukishima have melted down... we don't know how far down." He also talks about Lady Barbara Judge (possible hybrid?) being involved in the clean-up. (Her focus has been on getting the nuclear plants reopened.) ===== SIDEBAR ===== on Lady Barbara Judge, TEPCO's "ambassador"? Toil and Trouble? : Strange Bedfellows: TEPCO & Lady Barbara Judge http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aaxgNr1yB3Q Lady Barbara Judge Thomas (born as Barbara Singer) interviews: Part-1: Interview on Bloomberg http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gu9V7YHBoBw : 1B - Excerpts http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qtoIEPsPXK8 (notice how she is blinking like mad, cannot stand the bright lights) Part-2: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jRs0CXmnh34 The Role of Nuclear Energy in the Middle East and Beyond http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e5slwFJuZEQ She got the job at the Atomic Energy Authority "by accident": Her mother worked to age 86, and she wants to do the same Her (third) husband is: Sir Paul Judge - founded Judge Bus. School, at Cambridge ===== Unquote ===== We need more (than that sort of effort) in a world of scientists. Where is safe? "The air from Japan comes down somewhere... LAX." "Over a million people have died from Chernobyl. We haven't even seen the beginning of problems from Fukishima. Young people are especially vulnerable. Sometime in our life-times, Japan will no longer exist as a country... it is very vulnerable." "Our atmosphere may be terraformed... Mars is our get-out-of-jail card. There's life on Mars, and more water than on Earth." "Grant's Pass has underground bases... NORAD is here... I have done networking for bases."

SPDR Gold holdings are still declining too. Americans seem to care little for Gold, while the Chinese keep buying

Yeah - looks interesting, GF. Either forecast should mean big drops once the present rally is complete (next Spring maybe?)

New interview (this week) with Mike Harris MP3 : http://mediaarchives.gsradio.net/mike_harris/hr1111313.mp3 Date: 11-13-13 Tonight's guest was Dr, Richard Alan Miller, the topics were how to reach your higher consciousnesses and ended up talking nutrition and the importance of maintain a good physical condition for spiritual health. Suggests : Kelly Howell (course?)

Expensive property sold at high prices to naive foreigners and highly-geared local dupes Whatta thing to based an economy upon

House prices close to all-time high amid reports new Help to Buy scheme to ... The Independent - ‎8 minutes ago‎ House prices surged at their fastest annual rate in almost three years in September and remained close to an all-time high recorded the previous month, official figures have shown. Related Help to Buy has raised risk of house price bubble, economist warns

TODAY's NEWS Article: The plan that’s helped 75 people become homeowners every dayYahoo Finance UK - 15 hours ago Article: Wasted houses epidemic: A quarter of properties could house more peopleYahoo Finance UK - Mon, Nov 4, 2013 12:57 GMT Article: British pay highest property taxes in the developed worldYahoo Finance UK - Thu, Nov 7, 2013 11:15 GMT == == Govt-supported B.S. ?: The Government’s Help To Buy scheme is creating 75 new homeowners every day, show initial figures. Average income first-time buyers make up the majority of more than 2,000 people who have taken out a Government-backed mortgage since the second phase of the scheme opened its doors for business last month. Around £365 million of home loans have been granted to buyers who need only have saved a deposit of 5%. On average households have asked to borrow around £155,000 for homes typically worth £163,000. (...and this is a GOOD thing? Maybe those who buy earlier enough while be ahead, but eventually the bubble will peak, and those that buy after that will soon find themselves underwater. Who de we blame for the pain? Obvious answer: criminally idiotic Tories. I hope UKIP eats their lunch, and buries the Bastids! Cameron has replaced Brown, at the top of my UK politicians Villains list : You, sir, are a horse's arse!) . . . Calls for increased home construction have intensified in line with spiralling house prices. Yet in many parts of the country, opportunities to better utilise properties already standing are going to waste, according to the analysis by Savills. It found that there are one million more homes than households across England and Wales, and the majority of the surplus is within the private sector. Overall, the estate agency found that 4.7 million homes are permanently empty, left vacant or are under-occupied. It defined under-occupied as homes where one person lives in a three or more bedroom home or two people in a four or more bedroom home, and found there were approximately 3.9 million such homes. . . . ZOMBIE=SLAVES ?? British people pay the highest levels of property taxes in the developed world, more than twice the average for the 34 rich countries in the Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development, according to a think-tank. Council tax, stamp duty, inheritance tax and capital gains tax amount to 4.1% of GDP in the UK - the highest in the OECD and well above the average 1.8%, found Policy Exchange. By comparison, Canada levies 3.5% of national income in property taxes, the USA 3%, Japan 2.8% and Germany 0.9%.

Mark Richards interview with notes - mind-blowing stuff ! (Notes from A and B, in a Skype conversation) A.: The interview has a fascinating Back-story... A: have you heard of Mark Richards? : I havent listened yet, but I am looking forward to it B: looks very interesting and , no I have not heard of this man A: You know Kerry Cassidy? B: yes : I think I will listen now, and maybe make some notes here A : She did not record the interview - but shares her notes : "Verification on Who is Running the Planet" - wow! B: Ok I know the Dulce event! : It was talked about by Phil Schneider who somehow 'commited suicide' by strangling himslef with a piano cord from behind. ..and he was wheelchair bound too! Must have been a contortionist! A : yes. it was assisted : Talked with races of ET's that he dealt with directly: + Raptor race, indigenous, consider the Earth theirs, direct contacts will military (1951), now allies + Two main reptilian races that want to "take Earth back", fighting humans and Raptors + Dracos (Cikars), a different race altogether - our atmosphere "hard for them to deal with" + Chemtrails, and Terra-forming is to make out Earth more livable for them + They are looking for mutations, and hybridizing humans B : that is the conclusion I have already come to regarding chemtrails : it is the only conclusion that makes sense A : Rick Miller is very worried by chemtrails B : I bet he is : It will change the ecology of this planet : i think that Dick Cheney admitted it was already too late . Chemtrails have done reparable damge, yet they continue on this mad genocide : He/Richards was framed for murder, and could "not use his secret mission" as defense DULCE: violence was a last defense, but turned into a battle, to free humans (Sent in by President Carter. Eisenhower had "wanted the place nuked") DULCE: violence was a last defense, but turned into a battle, to free humans (Sent in by President Carter. Eisenhower had "wanted the place nuked") Dulce is run by a Alien who is not a grey. Gates can require de-materialization : you die and turn into a duplicate (clone degradation) Humans are being "augmented" by "nanos" (nano devices) Richards said: "No One is running Planet Earth... there are too many wars going on." Marduk may have returned - but "they do not run the Earth" Reptilians are "running the Vatican at this time" - New Pope is a Nazi Nazis have a relationship thru DNA with Reptilians Biden (and maybe Obama) "paid respects" to the new leader (Marduk?) China may have a civil war with its own people The secret space program is hampered now by lack of money Gates can take people to the Moon and Mars (MR and his father had done that) Eisenhower met woth groups of aliens Nordics and Pleadians are different races, Nordics have white hair, Pl. blonde AI is not running Earth, but is a danger - some humans taken over We are protected, but some protectors "are not our friends" - there's a Truce Many alien races would like to "do away with humanity" We can handle the way aliens look, but "not the way they want to eat us." The Japanese are dealing with various races of ETs - not all the same races as USA. B: < Gates can require de-materialization : you die and turn into a duplicate (clone degradation) Most of our Politicians perhaps?? : Many alien races would like to "do away with humanity" We can handle the way aliens look, but "not the way they want to eat us." The Japanese are dealing with various races of ETs - not all the same races as USA. Nuclear power is accelerating mutations, and may be giving some special powers Beings are coming "as part of Ison" Cutting edge of having technology in space is to "have a black star", to use for power Humans have been given, or stole the technology, but have not reverse-engineered it. Most greys are clones. And one Alien being is running Dulce. Rothschilds have "less dominance than commonly thought." Bushes are players too. (they are reptilians), and do not go to regular hospitals. Two reptilian races are fighting each other, while opposing us. [22:20:35] William Sonnac: To speak to us, the Raptors have to have their vocal chords altered. They are only slightly telepathic Richards survived years of prison, thanks to his "augmentations" Gate locations: Menwith Hill, Demona, Israel, Pakistan/Afghanistan, Iran/Iraq [22:22:49 | Edited 22:31:11] William Sonnac: Richards became disenchanted with the experiments on humanity, murder of ETs. Military became worried that he would become a whistleblower. His father was aligned with the NWO agenda. He had many dealings with the Vatican. Death of Pope John-Paul was a murder. there was a power shift at the Vatican. Financial system: the Chinese will not be able to take it over. He has regular contacts with people in power, Shape-shifting is very rare. But some use androids, and manipulate them. Preying mantis race supported humanity, but has less power now. Greys are "at beck and call" of Reptilians. MR can talk: because "they know that no one will believe him" (plausible deniability) TPTB "want to get information" out. Crash retrievals are still happening - to get tech. He has a Nazi bloodline. He has flown ET craft. They do have the ability to time travel, and "bring back humans from parallel timelines." A: MR was jailed by "Reptilans" (cheney, etc) who do not like him Some aliens like to mate with human women and create Gobeke Tepe has a close connection to races from Sirius, Canine beings Egypt was dealing with all the aliens races coming here An Island (St George?) is near the Falklands, and has a major alien base (Raptors?) Wars, over the last 50 years... Different alien groups have relationships with different branches of the military The Navy has been in contact the longest, and has little trust for Raptors

Does the UK really need this ? Help to Buy brings £365m mortgage boom Herald Scotland - ‎43 minutes ago‎ Mortgage applications worth £365 million have been received by the UK's major lenders in the first month of the extended Help to Buy scheme. == == I had an agent (IP Global) cold call me, to offer me London properties today. I live in HK. I don't think that's a good sign for the LT future of London's property market

2006 Interview with Catriona Leigh Montieth (now: Solaris Blue Raven) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o4NU0PrYA6U Published on Dec 27, 2012 Original testimony recorded in 2006 regarding MK Ultra/Psychotronic Harassment/Synthetic Telepathy and the parties involved in the assault. The induction transpired in 2004. Interview with Neil Peart, of Rush "A thinking person's rock star" http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q_mKr28G7og Published on Sep 4, 2012 Neil's full interview on The Hour. The full web-exclusive "bonus" portion of the interview with Neil going over Moving Pictures track by track is already up but only a 4 minute clip of the main broadcast interview has been posted. Here's the full 20 minutes. The last 4 minutes is the musical guest, I was just too lazy to edit it out. Enjoy!

Solaris Blue Raven Despite her strange look, I found this to be unexpectedly interesting WHistle Blower Radio With Kerry Cassidy guest Solaris Blueraven 2013 11 08 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qDItk81avUM She is more believable than I had expected - Clear and articulate Here's the Sept. Interview http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bv5UFQe73_k = = I also plan to check her interview here : http://www.thewholeagenda.com/

Great Point ! I am watching THIS chart - GLD and the 326week MA (a Fibo number btw):