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Everything posted by drbubb
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PRECIOUS-Gold firms as US budget talks progress lifts stocks Reuters India - 4 Hours ago * U.S. lawmakers inch towards deal on "fiscal cliff" * European stocks rise towards 2012 highs, supporting gold * Chinese demand for gold seen picking up before Lunar New Year (Updates throughout, Gold firms as US budget talks progress lifts stocks Business Recorder
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GPC UK Data bank / & "Bull Trap podcast"
drbubb replied to drbubb's topic in Monitoring: Data, Bellwethers, Forecasts
Maybe. Maybe not. Here's Rightmove Greater London offering price index - versus Knight Frank's Prime Central London index Useless ? The Rightmove index never properly reflected the drop in Prime Central London prices in 2008-2009. Useful ? Rightmove's figures may prove useful if they continue rolling over, and they are seen to drag KF's Prime Central prices (in Green) down with them. -
DrBubb's Property Diary : tinyurl.com/GPC-Diary
drbubb replied to drbubb's topic in Main: Property in UK, US, Oz, HK, etc
Maybe. Maybe not. Here's Rightmove Greater London offering price index - versus Knight Frank's Prime Central London index Useless ? The Rightmove index never properly reflected the drop in Prime Central London prices in 2008-2009. Useful ? Rightmove's figures may prove useful if they continue rolling over, and they are seen to drag KF's Prime Central prices (in Green) down with them. -
UK House prices: News & Views
drbubb replied to G0ldfinger's topic in NEWS Commentary, 2021 & Beyond
Maybe. Maybe not. Here's Rightmove Greater London offering price index - versus Knight Frank's Prime Central London index Useless ? The Rightmove index never properly reflected the drop in Prime Central London prices in 2008-2009. (Probably because most sellers refused to cut asking prices.) Useful ? Rightmove's figures may prove useful if they continue rolling over, and they are seen to drag KF's Prime Central prices (in Green) down with them. -
A Shift in Power in Afghanistan? - More evidence This might have caused some Afghan drug lords to start moving wealth out of the country U.S. Defense Chief Set To Meet Afghan President RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty-12 Dec 2012 U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta (right) is greeted by U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan James Cunningham upon Panetta's arrival at Kabul ... Afghanistan: Foreign troops should leave villages Salon-16 Dec 2012 Afghan President Hamid Karzai, center, arrives for a group photo for an ... But the comments from theAfghan leader suggest he would like to ... KABUL, Afghanistan (AP) - President Barack Obama will decide shortly how many U.S. troops he wants to keep in Afghanistan after the U.S.-led coalition military mission ends in December 2014, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said Wednesday as he opened two days of consultations with top U.S. commanders and Afghan President Hamid Karzai. Panetta offered no clues to what Obama may decide, but other officials have indicated the White House is considering plans that call for between 6,000 and 10,000 U.S. troops to stay for several years after 2014 === /more: http://www.wrex.com/story/20322999/panetta-in-afghanistan-to-meet-with-karzai
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Basically goes like this: It used to be that everyone was SURE that QE would cause inflation to boom. They piled into gold, even though that assumption was flawed. Now the mentality is working in the reverse. People believe QE is ineffective, right as monetary policy is starting to gain some teeth and actually work.
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DrBubb's Property Diary : tinyurl.com/GPC-Diary
drbubb replied to drbubb's topic in Main: Property in UK, US, Oz, HK, etc
Well spotted, Fexx. That's for the clarification ! A 7% increase - beyond population growth is quite a lot. There is also a possibility that housing demand could SHRINK, if the average household size rises. That is possible if people begin to economise on their housing costs, instead of trying to borrow their way into more housing, or talk a generous government into forking over more housing benefits -
UK House prices: News & Views
drbubb replied to G0ldfinger's topic in NEWS Commentary, 2021 & Beyond
Well spotted, Fexx. That's for the clarification ! A 7% increase - beyond population growth is quite a lot. There is also a possibility that housing demand could SHRINK, if the average household size rises. That is possible if people begin to economise on their housing costs, instead of trying to borrow their way into more housing, or talk a generous government into forking over more housing benefits -
there are still many lurkers here.. 42 users are online (in the past 15 minutes) 9 members, 32 guests, 1 anonymous users (See full list) why not sign on? newest: EAWC Newest Member With EAWC, you have a unique opportunity to invest in: Turnkey technologies from Germany & Switzerland. Turnkey solutions with a significant potential for growth around the world, which provide local populations with access to essential resources at a low cost. Clean, energy- and cost-saving solutions that are easy to install, mobile, self-contained and built to last. A strong management team with extensive technological expertise in the field of renewable energy, hands-on experience in various developing countries, and a proven track record in industrial production, marketing and finance. High added value and a host of competitive advantages. Swiss quality production.
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UK House prices: News & Views
drbubb replied to G0ldfinger's topic in NEWS Commentary, 2021 & Beyond
Wiping out most of the year;s gains Mo. : Rt'mov : London : Rest of UK %chg / Nt'wide : H-oldSA Halif.SA Hal.NSA: HNindex : mom : DelusIdx 2012 J. : : 224,060 : 438,324 : 146,967 - 0.28% / 162,228 = n/a = 160,907 158,879 : £160,554 : - 0.16% :139.6% : F. : : 233,252 : 449,252 : 149,658 +1.83% / 162,712 = n/a = 160,118 158,897 : £160,805 : +0.16% :145.1% : M : : 236,939 : 455,159 : 151,853 +1.47% / 163,327 = n/a = 163,803 163,419 : £163,373 : +1.60% :145.0% : A : : 243,737 : 464,944 : 152,815 : +0.63% / 164,134 = n/a = 159,883 161,180 : £162,657 : - 0.44% :149.8% : M : : 243,759 : 469,314 : 152,803 : - 0.01% / 166,022 = n/a = 160,941 161,785 : £163,904 : +0.77% :148.7% : J. : : 246,235 : 477,440 : 153,332 : +0.35% / 165,738 = n/a = 162,417 163,240 : £164,489 : +0.36% :149.7% : Jl : : 242,097 : 460,304 : 151,633 : - 1.11% / 164,389 = n/a = 161,094 162,619 : £163,504 : - 0.60% :148.1% : A : : 236,260 : 454,875 : 150,173 : - 0.96% / 164,729 = n/a = 160,256 160,200 : £162,465 : - 0.64% : 145.4% : S : : 234,858 : 456,237 : 149,719 : - 0.30% / 163,964 = n/a = 159,486 160,437 : £162,201 : - 0.16% : 144.8% : O : : 243,168 : 478,071 : 151,123 : +0.94% / 164,153 = n/a = 158,426 159,818 : £161,986 : - 0.13% : 150.1% : N : : 236,761 : 483,709 : 147,163 : - 2.62% / 163,853 = n/a = 160,879 161,016 : £162,435 : +0.28% : 145.8% : D : : 228,989 : 464,398 : ========================================= mom:- 3.28% : - 3.99% : Est. DI : : 141.0% / - 0.02% = n/a = : +0.15% : +0.75% : +0.28% :. New sellers have chopped an average of £7,772 (-3.3%) off asking prices this month. While this is the largest monthly decrease ever reported by Rightmove, it follows an established pattern of December drops over the previous eight years. Miles Shipside, Director and housing market analyst at Rightmove comments: “December is the most likely month for sellers coming to market to get very real about the price they ask for their home. This year they’ve gone a bit further than ever before, though in truth it is symptomatic of the ‘all or nothing’ pattern of 2012. This summer also saw big falls with the distractions of the Jubilee and the Olympics, though prices did rebound in October. It seems that sellers who come to market at times when they know that buyers’ attention is focused on other events realise that their prices have to be extra keen in order to compete -
Hong Kong property outlook - and Data Base
drbubb replied to davehk's topic in Main: Property in UK, US, Oz, HK, etc
France could sort itself out, and China could submerge into a recession caused by mal-investments. But if these things do not happen, the likely winner is obvious -
UK House prices: News & Views
drbubb replied to G0ldfinger's topic in NEWS Commentary, 2021 & Beyond
I think the slide in the Pound would be the cause, not the effect. In such circumstances, wages tend to lag way behind inflation, and many jobs are lost. Property prices may go up, but are likely to lag way behind other inflation -
UK House prices: News & Views
drbubb replied to G0ldfinger's topic in NEWS Commentary, 2021 & Beyond
If mortgage rates rise as "A Bond bust" occurs, the boom will not happen -
UK House prices: News & Views
drbubb replied to G0ldfinger's topic in NEWS Commentary, 2021 & Beyond
Get their bank to call them for MARGIN The one on the right looks worried about something -
UK House prices: News & Views
drbubb replied to G0ldfinger's topic in NEWS Commentary, 2021 & Beyond
Looks like a 5th of 5th blowoff is completeing Ask yourself, why have London prices reached these insane multiples. and what can you do to take advantage of the yawning gap? -
UK House prices: News & Views
drbubb replied to G0ldfinger's topic in NEWS Commentary, 2021 & Beyond
I think the Govs may get a shock well before then, from some "unpredictable" outside event -
That was 1999 - it's different today
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GPC UK Data bank / & "Bull Trap podcast"
drbubb replied to drbubb's topic in Monitoring: Data, Bellwethers, Forecasts
We are getting the Crash - But not in London (yet) - so be careful ! Answers : ======== + Hali-Wide had two major peaks : £192,490 (Aug. 2007), and then fell by 20.3% into a into Mar.2009 Low (£153,477). The second peak was £169,287 (Apr. 2010), and it has since fallen by just 4.3% into its recent low of £161,986 (Oct. 2012.) That is 15.8% below the cycle peak back in Aug. 2007. Further falls still look possible into 2013 and beyond. + The two peaks for the Rest of The UK were: £183,496 (Aug. 2007), and £160,582 (May 2010). The first low of £145,334 (Feb. 2009), was 20.8% below the 2007 Cycle peak. And the most recent low of £147,163 (Nov. 2012), was 19.8% below the Cycle peak of 2007. A fresh lower low looks very possible this winter and beyond. + Greater London prices, per Rightmove, are a very different story indeed. The Nov. 2012 price was £483,709, 17.2% above the Nov. 2007 peak of £412,731. From that first peak, prices fell just 8.1% to £379,162, over 9 months, before beginning their long 4 year plus climb to last month's peak. + Relative prices have reached unprecedented levels. Greater London is now 298% of HaliWide prices and 329% of Rest-of-UK prices. The Nov. 2007 multiples were 218% and 231% respectively. Ask yourself, why have London prices reached these insane multiples. and what can you do to take advantage of the yawning gap? -
UK House prices: News & Views
drbubb replied to G0ldfinger's topic in NEWS Commentary, 2021 & Beyond
We are getting the Crash - But not in London (yet) - so be careful ! Answers : ======== + Hali-Wide had two major peaks : £192,490 (Aug. 2007), and then fell by 20.3% into a into Mar.2009 Low (£153,477). The second peak was £169,287 (Apr. 2010), and it has since fallen by just 4.3% into its recent low of £161,986 (Oct. 2012.) That is 15.8% below the cycle peak back in Aug. 2007. Further falls still look possible into 2013 and beyond. + The two peaks for the Rest of The UK were: £183,496 (Aug. 2007), and £160,582 (May 2010). The first low of £145,334 (Feb. 2009), was 20.8% below the 2007 Cycle peak. And the most recent low of £147,163 (Nov. 2012), was 19.8% below the Cycle peak of 2007. A fresh lower low looks very possible this winter and beyond. + Greater London prices, per Rightmove, are a very different story indeed. The Nov. 2012 price was £483,709, 17.2% above the Nov. 2007 peak of £412,731. From that first peak, prices fell just 8.1% to £379,162, over 9 months, before beginning their long 4 year plus climb to last month's peak. + Relative prices have reached unprecedented levels. Greater London is now 298% of HaliWide prices and 329% of Rest-of-UK prices. The Nov. 2007 multiples were 218% and 231% respectively. Ask yourself, why have London prices reached these insane multiples. and what can you do to take advantage of the yawning gap? -
DrBubb's Property Diary : tinyurl.com/GPC-Diary
drbubb replied to drbubb's topic in Main: Property in UK, US, Oz, HK, etc
Answers : ======== + Hali-Wide had two major peaks : £192,490 (Aug. 2007), and then fell by 20.3% into a into Mar.2009 Low (£153,477). The second peak was £169,287 (Apr. 2010), and it has since fallen by just 4.3% into its recent low of £161,986 (Oct. 2012.) That is 15.8% below the cycle peak back in Aug. 2007. Further falls still look possible into 2013 and beyond. + The two peaks for the Rest of The UK were: £183,496 (Aug. 2007), and £160,582 (May 2010). The first low of £145,334 (Feb. 2009), was 20.8% below the 2007 Cycle peak. And the most recent low of £147,163 (Nov. 2012), was 19.8% below the Cycle peak of 2007. A fresh lower low looks very possible this winter and beyond. + Greater London prices, per Rightmove, are a very different story indeed. The Nov. 2012 price was £483,709, 17.2% above the Nov. 2007 peak of £412,731. From that first peak, prices fell just 8.1% to £379,162, over 9 months, before beginning their long 4 year plus climb to last month's peak. + Relative prices have reached unprecedented levels. Greater London is now 298% of HaliWide prices and 329% of Rest-of-UK prices. The Nov. 2007 multiples were 218% and 231% respectively. Ask yourself, why have London prices reached these insane multiples. and what can you do to take advantage of the yawning gap? -
UK House prices: News & Views
drbubb replied to G0ldfinger's topic in NEWS Commentary, 2021 & Beyond
2017? Do you really think Ultra-low rates will last that long, StunLee? -
UK House prices: News & Views
drbubb replied to G0ldfinger's topic in NEWS Commentary, 2021 & Beyond
Of course, it makes sense to Buy it prices are at least stable, in a time of ultra-low rates - That's the whole point behind them: to INDUCE people to keep spending money & keep investing. But if rates start rising, the world (and property vales) may change pretty fast. I don't think that anyone knows exactly how long they will go on. Even the Fed can and will get hit with unexpected shocks which may force them to change their rates policy. The funny thing is: The longer LOW rates go on, the longer people tend to expect them to persist. Where the reality is the opposite: the clock is surely running out, but I cannot say when. -
UK House prices: News & Views
drbubb replied to G0ldfinger's topic in NEWS Commentary, 2021 & Beyond
Old Quote: DrBubb, on May 24 2009, 03:11 AM, said: I reckon that prices will fall from 35-50% from their Dead Cat Bounce high in the next few weeks, to the Low in 2012-13. == UNQUOTE === /see: http://www.housepric...ic=115350&st=30 -
Hong Kong Property Developers - shares thread
drbubb replied to drbubb's topic in Main: Property in UK, US, Oz, HK, etc
WHEELOCK : Not such a hotshot - article from SCMP Peter Woo spent HK$434mn on Wheelock shares between Aug.2011 and Oct.2012 Holdco Discounts Company====== : Sym# : Price : Underly : Disc. Shun Tak--------- : XXXXX : $10.00 : 38 % : 28 % Henderson Land : XXXXX : $10.00 : 45 % : 19 % New World Dev'l : XXXXX : $10.00 : 60 % : 19 % PCCW------------ : XXXXX : $10.00 : 92 % : 36 % Wheelock-------- : XXXXX : $10.00 : 94 % : 28 % First Pacific------ : XXXXX : $10.00 :100% : 41 % ========== Company====== : Sym# : Pricehk$ : MktCap Wheelock------- : XXXXX : $38.90 : $ 79.0 bn : HK Wharf-------- : XXXXX : $10.00 : $ XX.X bn : x XX% : $92.3bn Wheelock Prop. : XXXXX : $10.00 : $ XX.X bn : x XX% : $10.9bn Other business. : XXXXX : Private-: $ 10.0 bn : x100% : $10.0bn