drbubb

(1) 2012: When Car Parks became cash shelters The Buyer's stamp duty touched off a mania for parking spaces, but now investors may find it hard navigating their way to a speculative exit "Investors bought properties such as car parks without serious consideration. Now the negative impact is starting to be exposed." According to some reports, investors who bought car parking spaces from developers now find it difficult to resell the properties. "Today returns on office properties are pretty low. Once interest rates go up, they will get into trouble." - Todays SCMP, Business: pg.2 (2) A WORD TO TO WISE ... or actually a quote, from pg.7 of LuxeHomes (Ask the Expert, Jeffery Ng Chong-yip) "The risk of investing in car park spaces is connected to the economy. In good times, a couple with high disposable income may want to own a car. But the car is usually the first thing to be abandoned in bad times."

First Majestic Silver Shares Up 83.8% Since SmarTrend's Buy Recommendation (FRMSF) TMC Net - 77 Minutes ago (SmarTrend® Spotlight via COMTEX) -- SmarTrend identified an Uptrend for First Majestic Silver (NASDAQ:FRMSF) on October 29th, 2010 at $7.54. In approximately 26 months, First Majestic Silver has returned

It might happen sooner than 2015

Yes. "It only works with the cooperation of the market." But market so far has learned not to "fight the Fed", or to fight the BofE - since that has been a great way to lose money. Here's a question: How can the Fed or BofE stop adding "artificial demand"? I don't really see any way out that does not involve massive inflation and/or a crash. The money printing countries are on a dangerous road, A Road to Perdition.

Global Bubble Watch: December 27 – Wall Street Journal (Patrick McGee): “Bond investors willing to take on more risk in 2012 got their reward. Among major fixed-income picks, high-yield, or ‘junk,’ bonds were the best performing this year, notching total returns of 16% through Monday, according to Barclays… Efforts by the Federal Reserve, led by Ben Bernanke, to keep long-term interest rates low by pumping money into the economy pushed yield-seeking investors into the debt of companies rated below investment grade… Investment-grade corporate bonds handed investors returns of 9.6%... Treasurys returned 1.8%. The rush into junk bonds sent yields, which move in the opposite direction of bond prices, tumbling. Yields touched a record low 6.1% last week, compared with 8.1% at the start of 2012…” December 27 – Bloomberg (Aaron Kirchfeld and Serena Saitto): “Global mergers and acquisitions rose to the highest level in four years this quarter… Companies worldwide have announced $691.9 billion in purchases in the final three months of the year, the most since the third quarter of 2008… While transactions for all of 2012 shrank about 10% to $2.19 trillion, the same level as 2010, about $86 billion of telecommunications deals… gave the end of the year a boost.” December 24 – Dow Jones (Tatsuo Ito): “Faced with strong political pressure, the Bank of Japan is resorting to an ‘unprecedented’ lending program in the hopes it would rein in the yen’s strength, but combined with aggressive monetary easing, the move risks inviting resentment from other countries. The central bank Thursday announced the details of the program in which the BOJ provides cheap funds to commercial banks in return for an increase in their loans, an attempt to pump more money into the real economy. But in a rare admission they were also targeting the currency's value, BOJ officials said they hoped it would spur money flows overseas and bring about a weaker yen. ‘If firms using the scheme convert the yen into foreign currencies when they increase their M&A activity globally, that would strengthen money flows that correct the yen's strength,’ BOJ Gov. Masaaki Shirakawa told a news conference… after the central bank also decided to increase its purchases of government debt by Y10 trillion ($119bn). The governor said the program was an ‘unprecedented’ step for central banks in that it allowed banks in Japan to use the money from the BOJ for lending to non-Japanese firms overseas, including hedge funds, and in foreign currencies. December 24 – Bloomberg (Christine Idzelis): “Loans made to the neediest U.S. companies rose to the most in five years, as investor demand for the debt with the highest claims on a borrower’s assets grew amid a struggling global economy and fiscal uncertainty. Speculative-grade borrowers raised more than $315 billion of the debt from collateralized loan obligations and hedge funds, exceeding 2011 levels and the most since $388.3 billion was issued in 2007, data compiled by Bloomberg and JPMorgan Chase & Co. show… ‘The market is red hot,’ Richard Farley, a New York-based partner at law firm Paul Hastings LLP who focuses on leveraged finance, said… ‘I don’t think there’s anything that will knock us off the horse at this point.’” December 21 – Forbes (Steve Miller): “U.S issuers printed $465 billion of new leveraged loans in 2012, 24% more than in 2011… That’s the third-biggest year of primary loan production, behind 2006 and 2007. The market has been especially hot in the fourth quarter, amid a largely stable macro environment and demand-rich technical conditions. All told, new-issue loan volume climbed to $136 billion during the final three months of 2012 – the most since the first quarter of 2011, when quarterly activity reached a post-credit-crunch high of $141 billion – from $126 billion in the third quarter.” December 26 – Bloomberg (Matt Robinson): “Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s Investors Service are cutting corporate debt ratings at the fastest pace since 2009 as a global economic slowdown and record borrowing erode credit quality. The ratio of ratings downgrades to upgrades worldwide climbed to 1.85 this year from 1.23 in 2011…” === /see: http://www.prudentbe...ew?art_id=10743

2012 In Review / Doug Noland... Dec. 28, 2012 “Within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. And believe me, it will be enough.” Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank, July 26, 2012. Having singlehandedly altered the course of the European crisis, the Financial Times named Mr. Draghi “FT Person of the Year.” Yet “Super Mario” was anything but acting alone. The emboldened Bernanke Fed soon followed Draghi’s bold pronouncement with its own daring commitment to open-ended quantitative easing (in a non-crisis environment!). All throughout 2012, extraordinary monetary easings were announced by central banks around the globe. I will this evening announce the distinguished 2012 “CBB Thing of the Year” recipient: congratulations to Endless Free “Money." . . . Despite ultra-loose monetary policies around the world, global growth slowed meaningfully in 2012. Economies throughout Europe downshifted forcefully. Importantly, 2012 saw the crisis gravitate from Europe’s periphery to its core. German growth slowed from 2011’s 3.1% to less than 1% (OECD estimates 0.9%). France flat-lined after 2011’s almost 2% expansion. The Italian economy nosedived, from slightly positive growth (0.6%) to a contraction of 2.2% (OECD estimate). Spain also saw positive GDP (0.4%) succumb to recession (negative 1.3%). But it was the worsening of already alarmingly high unemployment that best illustrated Europe’s unfolding recession/depression. Spain’s unemployment rate jumped to 25% (up from less than 21% in mid-2011). Italian unemployment surpassed 11%, with France following closely behind at 10.3%. The overall eurozone unemployment rate jumped to 11.7% (as of October), from 10.0% in mid-2011. Worse yet, the region’s youth unemployment rate remained shockingly high. . . . As an analyst and student of Credit, I remain in awe of Credit happenings in China. First of all, Chinese economic growth also slowed meaningfully in the face of ongoing historic Credit expansion. According to Reuters, total bank lending has been on course to approach $1.4 TN, an increase of almost 14% from booming 2011. Even more amazing is the growth of non-bank Credit. According to Bloomberg, Chinese corporate debt issuance surged 54% in 2012 to $657bn. Moreover, some analysts have estimated annual growth as high as 50% for lending outside of China's normal banking channels. According to Barclay’s, the Chinese “‘shadow banking’ industry has nearly doubled in the past two years to $4.11 trillion, or more than a third of total lending.” While a complete and accurate accounting of Chinese Credit is not available, it is possible that total 2012 Chinese Credit growth approached the U.S. record of $2.5 TN posted in 2007. I have posited that Chinese authorities lost control of their Credit boom back during the aggressive 2009 stimulus period. I have similarly suggested that China is trapped in a late-cycle “terminal phase of Credit excess.” I saw only support for this thesis in 2012. That historic Chinese Credit growth actually accelerated from 2011 levels – and that minimally regulated, high-risk and opaque “shadow banking” Credit exploded – is an important aspect of my “right tail” (Bubble grows much more precarious) year-in-review 2012 analysis... . . . According to Bloomberg (Sarika Gangar), global corporate bond sales this year just surpassed 2009’s record $3.89 TN. “Companies from the neediest to the most creditworthy took advantage of borrowing costs that fell to a record-low 3.27% this week as central banks held down interest rates to prop up the economy… Investors also funneled $475.3 billion into bond funds as global growth, which slowed to an estimated 2.2% this year from 2.91% in 2011, prompted them to seek alternatives to equities.” The first, third and fourth quarters all posted record issuance for their respective periods. “The yield on bonds worldwide fell 1.56 percentage points this year… Borrowing costs have tumbled from an all-time high of 9.05% in October 2008… Issuance in the U.S. reached a record, climbing 31% to $1.47 trillion, exceeding the previous all-time high of $1.24 trillion in 2009… Sales of high-yield bonds… reached $354 billion. That’s 23% above the previous record of $288 billion set in 2010.” According to Forbes’ Steve Miller, U.S. leveraged loans jumped 24% from 2011 to $465bn, with lending volumes below only 2006 and 2007 levels. Instead of the forces of de-risking/de-leveraging, Credit instruments enjoyed manic demand. It is worth noting that 2012’s record $475bn bond inflows compares to 2011’s $99bn. A virtual buyers’ panic ensured double-digit returns for corporate debt investors. And the riskier the paper, the higher the 2012 return. === /more: http://www.prudentbe...ew?art_id=10743

Doug Noland: Historic Global Credit Bubble Is Forming Trillions flowing into bond funds at major risk NEWSHOUR, GUEST EXPERT25/Dec/2012 This Financial Sense Newshour program is available only as a premium, paid "FS Insider" release. Jim is pleased to welcome back Douglas Noland, Senior Portfolio Manager at Federated Investors Inc. in Boston. In Europe, Doug believes the ECB will continue to do whatever it takes to bring down the credit spreads among EU member countries, which is helping to create a global credit bubble. Doug sees a major battle in the credit markets between the central banks and the bond vigilantes. The central bankers now have the upper hand, but Doug believes this will not last. Trillions are flowing into bond funds, which he sees as a major risk for investors. He believes that we are entering into a critical “end game” in the inflationary cycle, as central bankers continue to take desperate measures to prop up slowing economies around the globe

OK. Watch Japan. Things may unravel there first, and a sliding currency may eventually trigger a jump in rates

I think they will wait until there is NO CHOICE, but to let the Property market drop. Then it will happen FAST That day may be fast approaching. The smart way to play it is to downsize, and raise cash IMHO. The Leaving-London-Arb may work well, if your job does not require being there

When rates start to rise, I think they will climb much faster than most people think - and that will trigger the collapse

LOL Yeah, but you can always add a toilet, and even a sewage system Many (smart) retiring boomers will leave London. I have friends who are selling in Chiswick to buy a new house at less than half the price in Chichester. As more and more do that, the price differentials will narrow, I reckon

I think : + SELLING in London, and + BUYING at half-price (or less) elsewhere in the UK Can make great sense right now.

A Key Support level has been reached

Think Arbitrage ! Some of these places may be good to live in

In the USA... Housing Prices Surge in 2012: Thank the Fed Time - 10 Hours ago Sam Hodgson / Bloomberg / Construction crews work at the site of the Arista at the Crosby development in Rancho Santa Fe, Calif., on Dec. 21, 2012 Without a doubt, the U.S. housing market has been the

Seaside resort sees UK's biggest price rise Parts of the UK saw house prices drop in 2012 but these towns experienced big rises.

Banks may find it more difficult to get/keep deposits in 2013 And that may leave them with less money to invest in TBonds Major borrowers to reduce bank deposits -Fed survey Reuters UK - 6 Hours ago 6:59pm GMT WASHINGTON, Dec 27 (Reuters) - Wall Street dealers expect hedge funds, insurance companies and other borrowers to reduce deposits at commercial banks when a financial crisis-era deposit insurance === === Some folks are now turning Bearish on Bonds. Such as... Paul Craig Roberts: The Fiscal Cliff Hoax - Our Collapsing Economy and Currency Submitted by Paul Craig Roberts on Sat, 12/15/2012 - 14:23 Is the “fiscal cliff” real or just another hoax? The answer is that the fiscal cliff is real, but it is a result, not a cause. The hoax is the way the fiscal cliff is being used. The fiscal cliff is the result of the inability to close the federal budget deficit. The budget deficit cannot be closed because large numbers of US middle class jobs and the GDP and tax base associated with them have been moved offshore, thus reducing federal revenues. The fiscal cliff cannot be closed because of the unfunded liabilities of eleven years of US-initiated wars against a half dozen Muslim countries–wars that have benefited only the profits of the military/security complex and the territorial ambitions of Israel. The budget deficit cannot be closed, because economic policy is focused only on saving banks that wrongful financial deregulation allowed to speculate, to merge, and to become too big to fail, thus requiring public subsidies that vastly dwarf the totality of US welfare spending. === /His Blog: http://www.economicp...t.org/blog/1077

China Builds Up Its Gold Reserves As fewer currencies can now be called non-fiat, the attractiveness of Gold as a reserve asset has increased. In addition to the countries mentioned above, China also seems to be building up its Gold reserves. It has long been argued that even if China wanted to diversify its $3 trillion of reserves, it could not diversify into Gold without disrupting the Gold market. However by stealth, China seems to be doing just this. As well as being an important Gold consumer, China has become the world’s largest producer of Gold and is likely to be the largest importer of Gold too, in 2012. In addition, it is buying Gold mining companies around the world. All in all, this suggests China is building up its Gold reserves. The last time China made public its reserves they had doubled to 1,054 tonnes, that was three and a half years ago in April 2009. Gold Reserves: Tonnes : $ Billions ==== United States--- : 8,133.5 : $ 466.8 Bn Germany-------- : 3,395.5 : $ 194.9 Bn IMF -------------- : 2,814.0 : $ 161.5 Bn Italy -------------- : 2,451.8 : $ 140.7 Bn France ---------- : 2,435.4 : $ 138.8 Bn China ------------ : 1,054.1 : : $ 60.5 Bn Switzerland ----- : 1,040.1 : : $ 59.7 Bn Russia ------------- : 936.6 : : $ 53.8 Bn Japan -------------- : 765.2 : : $ 43.9 Bn Netherlands ------ : 612.5 : : $ 35.2 Bn India ---------------- : 557.7 : : $ 32.0 Bn ECB ---------------- : 502.1 : : $ 28.8 Bn If they make another update the market should be braced for a significant increase. In 2009, the market reacted bullishly to the news and we would expect a similar reaction if another update were to emerge – that is as long as it did not look as though China had built up enough reserves to slow down its accumulation. This seems unlikely as even if China doubled its holdings again it would still be below that of France, Italy, the IMF, Germany and the US – see table above. China’s official Gold holdings of 1,054 tonnes only account for some two percent of its reserves, whereas Gold held by the US, Germany, Italy and France accounts for around 70 percent of their reserves. We feel central banks’ purchases of Gold will continue, driven by the prospect of further currency debasement and higher inflation down the road. As well as seeking ways to diversify its reserves, China, may also be looking to build up its Gold reserves with the idea that before too long it will want to make the yuan a freely convertible currency. === /source: http://www.scotiamoc...orecast2013.pdf

Forex Forecasts: Gold Prices at Risk Despite Ultra-Dovish Fed in 2013 Yahoo! Xtra Business - 59 Minutes ago Gold prices sold off ahead of the New Year despite an ultra-dovish US Federal Reserve, and gold will face further headwinds in 2013 as outlook for global growth deteriorates. The highly accommodative

House Prices Predicted To Edge Down In 2013 Reluctance by struggling families to take on more debt and low sales are expected to act as a drag on the housing market. Monday 24 December 2012 Average prices ended the year 0.3% lower than a year ago House prices across the country fall by 1% during 2013 as the London market shows signs of cooling, property analysts have said. Prices fell 0.1% month-on-month in December, marking the sixth month in a row that this has happened, and average prices ended the year 0.3% lower than a year ago, Hometrack said. It predicts that a reluctance by struggling families to take on more debt will continue to act as a drag on the housing market next year and prices will be more volatile with continued low sales. Hometrack's monthly figures for December show prices were flat in London and East Anglia, fell 0.1% in the Midlands, the South and Yorkshire and Humberside, dropped 0.2% in the North West and Wales and by 0.3% in the North East. One in five postcodes in England and Wales recorded price increases over the past year but prices have fallen across two-thirds of the country. London has had strong demand from wealthy overseas buyers and consistently outperforms other regions, seeing prices rise in seven out of 10 postcodes this year. Property prices are now 10% higher than at the peak of the market in 2007. But price growth in London, vital to keeping average prices up in the rest of the country, is predicted to slow over next year, with a 2% annual increase pencilled in. Central London price growth looks set to slow, following the introduction of a 7% stamp duty rate placed on homes worth over £2m in March.

Futures market survey: 75 pct negative about Shanghai gold on Tue. TMC Net - 6 Hours ago (Xinhua via COMTEX) -- About 75 percent futures experts surveyed by the China Finance Corporation, a financial information provider run by Xinhua News Agency, are negative about the gold futures traded

WHAT DOES THE DATA SHOW ?? ======== The increase for 2012 (year to date) was big, about 20% but so was the increase in rents (maybe 18%?) The other thing for 2013 was that cheaper properties tended to rise more in price than expensive ones... ===== Week : CCLI : CMMI : RobinPl: Dynast: TaikSh // IslHarb : ParkA : Sorrent : TArch : C'ribC : ==== (2012) 12/16: 114.97 113.50: 14,072 : 23,840 : 11,288 / 10,527 : 11,733 : 16,319 : 22,193 : 5,988 (2011) 12/25 : 96.68 : 93.89 : 14,091 : 21,639 : : 9,877// 9,100 : 10,147 : 13,252 : 20,371 : 4,610 ====== Chg +18.9%:+20.9% :-0.13% :+10.2% :+14.3%/+15.7%:+15.6%:+23.1%:+8.9%:+29.9% Question: Why did Robinson Place go nowhere ?

If you want the threads in the same Forum, please let me know Actually, I am planning to move more Trading & Investment threads to this Forum soon

MORE HOUSE, not higher benefits needed ... Anti-poverty campaigners should ditch their support for housing benefit in favour of proposals to bring down the cost of housing for low income families, according to a free market thinktank. The £21bn cost of subsidising mortgages and rents to low incomes families could be almost halved when the government passes legislation to ease planning rules and allow more house building, the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA) said. The number of people claiming housing benefit has increased by 780,000 since the beginning of 2009 to 5 million. The IEA said that only when property developers and local communities have the freedom to build more homes will the cost of housing begin to fall. The thinktank warned that lobbyists campaigning for increased government spending on housing benefit and tax credits wanted an expensive, taxpayer-funded fix that failed to tackle the long term problem of unaffordable house prices and escalating rents. More: http://www.guardian....housing-benefit TPTB should have LET Greater London "Take" is Crash medicine back in 2008-9

TLT is still holding above 120... TLT : 122.25 +1.32 Open: 122.31 / High: 122.43 / Low: 121.95 Volume: 5,648,513 Percent Change: +1.09%