drbubb

PRECIOUS-Gold firms as US budget talks progress lifts stocks Reuters India - 4 Hours ago * U.S. lawmakers inch towards deal on "fiscal cliff" * European stocks rise towards 2012 highs, supporting gold * Chinese demand for gold seen picking up before Lunar New Year (Updates throughout, Gold firms as US budget talks progress lifts stocks Business Recorder

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Maybe. Maybe not. Here's Rightmove Greater London offering price index - versus Knight Frank's Prime Central London index Useless ? The Rightmove index never properly reflected the drop in Prime Central London prices in 2008-2009. Useful ? Rightmove's figures may prove useful if they continue rolling over, and they are seen to drag KF's Prime Central prices (in Green) down with them.

Maybe. Maybe not. Here's Rightmove Greater London offering price index - versus Knight Frank's Prime Central London index Useless ? The Rightmove index never properly reflected the drop in Prime Central London prices in 2008-2009. Useful ? Rightmove's figures may prove useful if they continue rolling over, and they are seen to drag KF's Prime Central prices (in Green) down with them.

Maybe. Maybe not. Here's Rightmove Greater London offering price index - versus Knight Frank's Prime Central London index Useless ? The Rightmove index never properly reflected the drop in Prime Central London prices in 2008-2009. (Probably because most sellers refused to cut asking prices.) Useful ? Rightmove's figures may prove useful if they continue rolling over, and they are seen to drag KF's Prime Central prices (in Green) down with them.

A Shift in Power in Afghanistan? - More evidence This might have caused some Afghan drug lords to start moving wealth out of the country U.S. Defense Chief Set To Meet Afghan President RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty-12 Dec 2012 U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta (right) is greeted by U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan James Cunningham upon Panetta's arrival at Kabul ... Afghanistan: Foreign troops should leave villages Salon-16 Dec 2012 Afghan President Hamid Karzai, center, arrives for a group photo for an ... But the comments from theAfghan leader suggest he would like to ... KABUL, Afghanistan (AP) - President Barack Obama will decide shortly how many U.S. troops he wants to keep in Afghanistan after the U.S.-led coalition military mission ends in December 2014, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said Wednesday as he opened two days of consultations with top U.S. commanders and Afghan President Hamid Karzai. Panetta offered no clues to what Obama may decide, but other officials have indicated the White House is considering plans that call for between 6,000 and 10,000 U.S. troops to stay for several years after 2014 === /more: http://www.wrex.com/story/20322999/panetta-in-afghanistan-to-meet-with-karzai

Basically goes like this: It used to be that everyone was SURE that QE would cause inflation to boom. They piled into gold, even though that assumption was flawed. Now the mentality is working in the reverse. People believe QE is ineffective, right as monetary policy is starting to gain some teeth and actually work.

Well spotted, Fexx. That's for the clarification ! A 7% increase - beyond population growth is quite a lot. There is also a possibility that housing demand could SHRINK, if the average household size rises. That is possible if people begin to economise on their housing costs, instead of trying to borrow their way into more housing, or talk a generous government into forking over more housing benefits

Well spotted, Fexx. That's for the clarification ! A 7% increase - beyond population growth is quite a lot. There is also a possibility that housing demand could SHRINK, if the average household size rises. That is possible if people begin to economise on their housing costs, instead of trying to borrow their way into more housing, or talk a generous government into forking over more housing benefits

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Wiping out most of the year;s gains Mo. : Rt'mov : London : Rest of UK %chg / Nt'wide : H-oldSA Halif.SA Hal.NSA: HNindex : mom : DelusIdx 2012 J. : : 224,060 : 438,324 : 146,967 - 0.28% / 162,228 = n/a = 160,907 158,879 : £160,554 : - 0.16% :139.6% : F. : : 233,252 : 449,252 : 149,658 +1.83% / 162,712 = n/a = 160,118 158,897 : £160,805 : +0.16% :145.1% : M : : 236,939 : 455,159 : 151,853 +1.47% / 163,327 = n/a = 163,803 163,419 : £163,373 : +1.60% :145.0% : A : : 243,737 : 464,944 : 152,815 : +0.63% / 164,134 = n/a = 159,883 161,180 : £162,657 : - 0.44% :149.8% : M : : 243,759 : 469,314 : 152,803 : - 0.01% / 166,022 = n/a = 160,941 161,785 : £163,904 : +0.77% :148.7% : J. : : 246,235 : 477,440 : 153,332 : +0.35% / 165,738 = n/a = 162,417 163,240 : £164,489 : +0.36% :149.7% : Jl : : 242,097 : 460,304 : 151,633 : - 1.11% / 164,389 = n/a = 161,094 162,619 : £163,504 : - 0.60% :148.1% : A : : 236,260 : 454,875 : 150,173 : - 0.96% / 164,729 = n/a = 160,256 160,200 : £162,465 : - 0.64% : 145.4% : S : : 234,858 : 456,237 : 149,719 : - 0.30% / 163,964 = n/a = 159,486 160,437 : £162,201 : - 0.16% : 144.8% : O : : 243,168 : 478,071 : 151,123 : +0.94% / 164,153 = n/a = 158,426 159,818 : £161,986 : - 0.13% : 150.1% : N : : 236,761 : 483,709 : 147,163 : - 2.62% / 163,853 = n/a = 160,879 161,016 : £162,435 : +0.28% : 145.8% : D : : 228,989 : 464,398 : ========================================= mom:- 3.28% : - 3.99% : Est. DI : : 141.0% / - 0.02% = n/a = : +0.15% : +0.75% : +0.28% :. New sellers have chopped an average of £7,772 (-3.3%) off asking prices this month. While this is the largest monthly decrease ever reported by Rightmove, it follows an established pattern of December drops over the previous eight years. Miles Shipside, Director and housing market analyst at Rightmove comments: “December is the most likely month for sellers coming to market to get very real about the price they ask for their home. This year they’ve gone a bit further than ever before, though in truth it is symptomatic of the ‘all or nothing’ pattern of 2012. This summer also saw big falls with the distractions of the Jubilee and the Olympics, though prices did rebound in October. It seems that sellers who come to market at times when they know that buyers’ attention is focused on other events realise that their prices have to be extra keen in order to compete

France could sort itself out, and China could submerge into a recession caused by mal-investments. But if these things do not happen, the likely winner is obvious

I think the slide in the Pound would be the cause, not the effect. In such circumstances, wages tend to lag way behind inflation, and many jobs are lost. Property prices may go up, but are likely to lag way behind other inflation

If mortgage rates rise as "A Bond bust" occurs, the boom will not happen

Get their bank to call them for MARGIN The one on the right looks worried about something

Looks like a 5th of 5th blowoff is completeing Ask yourself, why have London prices reached these insane multiples. and what can you do to take advantage of the yawning gap?

I think the Govs may get a shock well before then, from some "unpredictable" outside event

That was 1999 - it's different today

We are getting the Crash - But not in London (yet) - so be careful ! Answers : ======== + Hali-Wide had two major peaks : £192,490 (Aug. 2007), and then fell by 20.3% into a into Mar.2009 Low (£153,477). The second peak was £169,287 (Apr. 2010), and it has since fallen by just 4.3% into its recent low of £161,986 (Oct. 2012.) That is 15.8% below the cycle peak back in Aug. 2007. Further falls still look possible into 2013 and beyond. + The two peaks for the Rest of The UK were: £183,496 (Aug. 2007), and £160,582 (May 2010). The first low of £145,334 (Feb. 2009), was 20.8% below the 2007 Cycle peak. And the most recent low of £147,163 (Nov. 2012), was 19.8% below the Cycle peak of 2007. A fresh lower low looks very possible this winter and beyond. + Greater London prices, per Rightmove, are a very different story indeed. The Nov. 2012 price was £483,709, 17.2% above the Nov. 2007 peak of £412,731. From that first peak, prices fell just 8.1% to £379,162, over 9 months, before beginning their long 4 year plus climb to last month's peak. + Relative prices have reached unprecedented levels. Greater London is now 298% of HaliWide prices and 329% of Rest-of-UK prices. The Nov. 2007 multiples were 218% and 231% respectively. Ask yourself, why have London prices reached these insane multiples. and what can you do to take advantage of the yawning gap?

We are getting the Crash - But not in London (yet) - so be careful ! Answers : ======== + Hali-Wide had two major peaks : £192,490 (Aug. 2007), and then fell by 20.3% into a into Mar.2009 Low (£153,477). The second peak was £169,287 (Apr. 2010), and it has since fallen by just 4.3% into its recent low of £161,986 (Oct. 2012.) That is 15.8% below the cycle peak back in Aug. 2007. Further falls still look possible into 2013 and beyond. + The two peaks for the Rest of The UK were: £183,496 (Aug. 2007), and £160,582 (May 2010). The first low of £145,334 (Feb. 2009), was 20.8% below the 2007 Cycle peak. And the most recent low of £147,163 (Nov. 2012), was 19.8% below the Cycle peak of 2007. A fresh lower low looks very possible this winter and beyond. + Greater London prices, per Rightmove, are a very different story indeed. The Nov. 2012 price was £483,709, 17.2% above the Nov. 2007 peak of £412,731. From that first peak, prices fell just 8.1% to £379,162, over 9 months, before beginning their long 4 year plus climb to last month's peak. + Relative prices have reached unprecedented levels. Greater London is now 298% of HaliWide prices and 329% of Rest-of-UK prices. The Nov. 2007 multiples were 218% and 231% respectively. Ask yourself, why have London prices reached these insane multiples. and what can you do to take advantage of the yawning gap?

Answers : ======== + Hali-Wide had two major peaks : £192,490 (Aug. 2007), and then fell by 20.3% into a into Mar.2009 Low (£153,477). The second peak was £169,287 (Apr. 2010), and it has since fallen by just 4.3% into its recent low of £161,986 (Oct. 2012.) That is 15.8% below the cycle peak back in Aug. 2007. Further falls still look possible into 2013 and beyond. + The two peaks for the Rest of The UK were: £183,496 (Aug. 2007), and £160,582 (May 2010). The first low of £145,334 (Feb. 2009), was 20.8% below the 2007 Cycle peak. And the most recent low of £147,163 (Nov. 2012), was 19.8% below the Cycle peak of 2007. A fresh lower low looks very possible this winter and beyond. + Greater London prices, per Rightmove, are a very different story indeed. The Nov. 2012 price was £483,709, 17.2% above the Nov. 2007 peak of £412,731. From that first peak, prices fell just 8.1% to £379,162, over 9 months, before beginning their long 4 year plus climb to last month's peak. + Relative prices have reached unprecedented levels. Greater London is now 298% of HaliWide prices and 329% of Rest-of-UK prices. The Nov. 2007 multiples were 218% and 231% respectively. Ask yourself, why have London prices reached these insane multiples. and what can you do to take advantage of the yawning gap?

2017? Do you really think Ultra-low rates will last that long, StunLee?

Of course, it makes sense to Buy it prices are at least stable, in a time of ultra-low rates - That's the whole point behind them: to INDUCE people to keep spending money & keep investing. But if rates start rising, the world (and property vales) may change pretty fast. I don't think that anyone knows exactly how long they will go on. Even the Fed can and will get hit with unexpected shocks which may force them to change their rates policy. The funny thing is: The longer LOW rates go on, the longer people tend to expect them to persist. Where the reality is the opposite: the clock is surely running out, but I cannot say when.

Old Quote: DrBubb, on May 24 2009, 03:11 AM, said: I reckon that prices will fall from 35-50% from their Dead Cat Bounce high in the next few weeks, to the Low in 2012-13. == UNQUOTE === /see: http://www.housepric...ic=115350&st=30

WHEELOCK : Not such a hotshot - article from SCMP Peter Woo spent HK$434mn on Wheelock shares between Aug.2011 and Oct.2012 Holdco Discounts Company====== : Sym# : Price : Underly : Disc. Shun Tak--------- : XXXXX : $10.00 : 38 % : 28 % Henderson Land : XXXXX : $10.00 : 45 % : 19 % New World Dev'l : XXXXX : $10.00 : 60 % : 19 % PCCW------------ : XXXXX : $10.00 : 92 % : 36 % Wheelock-------- : XXXXX : $10.00 : 94 % : 28 % First Pacific------ : XXXXX : $10.00 :100% : 41 % ========== Company====== : Sym# : Pricehk$ : MktCap Wheelock------- : XXXXX : $38.90 : $ 79.0 bn : HK Wharf-------- : XXXXX : $10.00 : $ XX.X bn : x XX% : $92.3bn Wheelock Prop. : XXXXX : $10.00 : $ XX.X bn : x XX% : $10.9bn Other business. : XXXXX : Private-: $ 10.0 bn : x100% : $10.0bn