drbubb

BDEV needs to break above the down channel to be a Buy I cannot ruole that out - But I favor the Bear case

Watching BDEV on Daily charts ... update

No one was killed. He was not banned. The only thing that happened was a thread was moved from one section to another for two weeks or so. That's hardly a "night of long knives" - more like a tea break.

Like several others, he was moved from Moderator to Member The others are still posting here.

This cannot be good for UK Property prices... Companies to cut investment and hiring Financial Times - ‎6 hours ago‎ / By Brian Groom, Business and Employment Editor Finance directors of Britain's largest companies plan to cut investment and hiring after reporting the biggest decline in optimism about their business's financial prospects since 2007. . . . Companies were more focused than 12 months ago on defensive balance sheet strategies, such as reducing leverage and disposing of assets, he said. “They are less likely to be making acquisitions or undertaking capital expenditure. On balance, CFOs see hiring, capital spending and discretionary spending declining over the next year.” Companies have stepped up preparations for a euro break-up, with 28 per cent saying their plans had been made or were at an advanced stage, compared with 18 per cent in the first quarter. The Deloitte survey shows the sharpest decline in corporate confidence since it started in 2007. == == Optimists will HOPE that sentiment has "hit bottom"

Goldfinger bows out of precious metals The gold market has just lost one of its most senior figures. Jeremy Charles, the veteran head of precious metals at HSBC, retires on Friday after a career of nearly four decades at the heart of the bullion industry. In that time, he helped to revolutionize the market. Under Mr Charles, HSBC’s precious metals division has become one of the largest and most profitable franchises in the industry. With just 27 front office staff, competitors estimate that the bank’s precious metals division makes annual revenues of $200m-$300m a year, rivalled only by ScotiaMocatta, UBS, and JPMorgan. Along with JPMorgan, HSBC trades more gold in the London market than any other bank, traders say. Mr Charles, who started his career in 1975 as a 19-year-old “tea boy” at NM Rothschild and went on to become chairman of the London Bullion Market Association === === Speak of which, I wonder where "our own" GF is these days ?

I am watching this chart ... update : 2-day (whoops - posted in the wrong place)

You mean this one? The "Hali-Wide" index is the Average of NSA Halifax and NSA Nationwide figures, and therefore less biased by temporary distortions than eother on its own. I think we are in a Triangle now, and chartwise, it could go either way. But my fundamental and cyclical view is that the recent weak rally will so fade, and prices will slide below the 2009 lows, probably before the end of 2013. But I will reconsider my view if BDEV soon shoots up to a new high.

You mean this one? The "Hali-Wide" index is the Average of NSA Halifax and NSA Nationwide figures, and therefore less biased by temporary distortions than eother on its own. I think we are in a Triangle now, and chartwise, it could go either way. But my fundamental and cyclical view is that the recent weak rally will so fade, and prices will slide below the 2009 lows, probably before the end of 2013. But I will reconsider my view if BDEV soon shoots up to a new high.

Thanks. My chart skills still prefer the Bull Case

People have such distorted memories - Just check the web ! Nonsense! My Blow-by-blow track record is laid out HERE: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-data ... and here: http://tinyurl.com/GPC-Diary For all to see. If you don't believe me, and you can spare the time, Go back and listen to the Podcast, recorded 4 April 2009: MP3 http://globaledge.podbean.com/mf/web/djn359/GeiConf3.mp3 Right on the Low, when almost everyone was still Bearish ...I forecast a one year bounce, which was exactly what we got. Since then, Barratt interpretations have given accurate signals, as you can see here: Do you see a Crash here? I do - a 20% drop in 2 years is a serious matter. And it is not complete yet IMHO. If you saw it adjusted for inflation, it would be even more clear. BTW. How's your forecasting record ??? Seriously, do you know anyone who has called the individual twists and turns of the UK-wide market better? (No one is perfect: What BDEV and my interpretations of it have not forecast well is: LONDON PROPERTY Prices.) Speaking practically: I moved to Hong Kong, partly to sidestep economic troubles in the UK, and did better with property investments here than I could have in the UK or London.

Who spoke about correlations? It is the turning signals provided by BDEV that I have been interpreting. It is not casual stuff. It requires some work, and effort to interpret, or anyone could do it.

People have such distorted memories - Just check the web ! Nonsense! My Blow-by-blow track record is laid out HERE: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-data ... and here: http://tinyurl.com/GPC-Diary For all to see. If you don't believe me, and you can spare the time, Go back and listen to the Podcast, recorded 4 April 2009: MP3 http://globaledge.podbean.com/mf/web/djn359/GeiConf3.mp3 Right on the Low, when almost everyone was still Bearish ...I forecast a one year bounce, which was exactly what we got. Since then, Barratt interpretations have given accurate signals, as you can see here: Do you see a Crash here? I do - a 20% drop in 2 years is a serious matter. And it is not complete yet IMHO. If you saw it adjusted for inflation, it would be even more clear. BTW. How's your forecasting record ??? Seriously, do you know anyone who has called the individual twists and turns of the UK-wide market better? (No one is perfect: What BDEV and my interpretations of it have not forecast well is: LONDON PROPERTY Prices.) Speaking practically: I moved to Hong Kong, partly to sidestep economic troubles in the UK, and did better with property investments here than I could have in the UK or London.

(From DrB's Diary - belongs here too !): ANY COMMENTS? - there are Man-Months of work that backs all this up ! BARRATT IS ON THE TOP of a channel - Downturn Coming ? Barratt Dev'l / BDEV : Weekly chart : Monthly chart : Daily chart : http://tinyurl.com/BDEV-610d BDEV has given us excellent early warnings of TURNS in UK house prices. From major double LOWS in 2008 (July at 22p, and Nov at 43p), Barratt/BDEV had a long A-B-C rally into a Sept. 2009 high at 280p. At a key point in the rally, we noticed that BDEV's price suddenly shot up in late March 2009. So in early April 2009, we predicted a 12 months "Dead Cat bounce" in UK property prices (in an Apr.4th podcast that you can still listen to, while looking at the Charts I describe.) In hindsight we can see a major low was made in HaliWide prices at £153,477 in Feb. and £154,066 in March - but those March figures were not available until April. The expected rally duly arrived as buyers responded to the BofE's near-Zero Interest Rate Policy. Since we did not think that the downwards correction was over after just a 2-year drop: We watched BDEV for a sign that the house price rally would peter out. From Sept. 2009 and its 280p peak (184p, on a split-adjusted basis), BDEV began to fall. This drop in the share preceded a fall in actual house prices, as measured by various property indices. A key point in the decline, was when BDEV slid back below its 252 day/1 year moving average. That occurred in Feb 2010. We anticipated that the confirmed break of BDEV's 1yr-MA would signal a renewed drop in UK Houseprices. Within a few weeks, in Spring 2010 a second downleg in UK property prices began. And it was clearly reflected in the HaliWide / H&Nindex (the average of the non-seassonally adjusted Halifax & Nationwide indicies), which peaked in April 2010 at £169,287. The new downwards drift in UK prices came despite continued ultra-low interest rates. But prices only fell by £7,946 (-4.7%) to £161,341 in seasonal low of Jan. 2011. BDEV slid lower for most of 2010, but the rate of decline slowed and the stock bottomed in late Nov.2010 at near 71p, which was well above the Nov 2009 low of 31p. Then, a year-end rally in BDEV stock began, taking BDEV back near 90p by the end of 2010. We watched to see if the bounce in stocks was going to be strong enough to push back above the 252d/1 year MA near 100p, thinking if that occurred, it should signal a reversal the downturn drift in UK property prices. BDEV rose above 110p, pushing beyond the 252d MA, suggesting that Spring 2011 would bring "upwards bounce" UK-wide home prices. But the action was unconvincing, despite the upwards trend. Early in 2011, I asked on GEI: "Will the UK house price rally last? I think not." The Homebuilder rally faded after the Spring of 2011, and BDEV rolled over at 120p and slid into the summer, as global stock markets suffered a correction. BDEV made a low of 65P in Aug. 2011. And following that pattern with several months lag, the UK Haliwide index peaked at £166,723 in July, and drifted down to a low of £160,554 in Jan. 2012. In Q4-2011, the stock market pessimism was overdone. Global stock markets rallied, and that helped to propel a nice jump in BDEV, all the way up to 150p+ in March 2012. That was a 34% higher high than in 2011. But so far, UK-wide Houseprices have lagged behind the levels seen in the prior year. Perhaps Barratt's share price is benefitting from its London focus, where house prices ARE hitting new highs. Even so, as I write this in July 2012, the stock remains in a clear long term downchannel, albeit it has risen to the top of that channel. BDEV has surged again after a Spring dip, rising to over 140p but remains below its 153p high. A drop in BDEV back below key support at/near 110p on high volume (If we see that), would be a sign that Crash Cruise Speed (with falls averaging more than 0.5% per month), is likely to resume in the housing markets. I expect we will see that after the London Olympics, when I expect realism to return to UK property markets. I still expect a serious slide in UK House prices into 2013 or later.

BARRATT IS ON THE TOP of a channel - Downturn Coming ? Barratt Dev'l / BDEV : Weekly chart : Monthly chart : Daily chart : http://tinyurl.com/BDEV-610d BDEV has given us excellent early warnings of TURNS in UK house prices. From major double LOWS in 2008 (July at 22p, and XX at XXp), Barratt/BDEV had a long A-B-C rally into a Sept. 2009 high at 280p. At a key point in the rally, we noticed that BDEV's price suddenly shot up in late March 2009. So in early April 2009, we predicted a 12 months "Dead Cat bounce" in UK property prices (in an Apr.4th podcast that you can still listen to, while looking at the Charts I describe.) In hindsight we can see a major low was made in HaliWide prices at £153,477 in Feb. and £154,066 in March - but those March figures were not available until April. The expected rally duly arrived as buyers responded to the BofE's near-Zero Interest Rate Policy. Since we did not think that the downwards correction was over after just a 2-year drop: We watched BDEV for a sign that the house price rally would peter out. From Sept. 2009 and its 280p peak (184p, on a split-adjusted basis), BDEV began to fall. This drop in the share preceded a fall in actual house prices, as measured by various property indices. A key point in the decline, was when BDEV slid back below its 252 day/1 year moving average. That occurred in Feb 2010. We anticipated that the confirmed break of BDEV's 1yr-MA would signal a renewed drop in UK Houseprices. Within a few weeks, in Spring 2010 a second downleg in UK property prices began. And it was clearly reflected in the HaliWide / H&Nindex (the average of the non-seassonally adjusted Halifax & Nationwide indicies), which peaked in April 2010 at £169,287. The new downwards drift in UK prices came despite continued ultra-low interest rates. But prices only fell by £7,946 (-4.7%) to £161,341 in seasonal low of Jan. 2011. BDEV slid lower for most of 2010, but the rate of decline slowed and the stock bottomed in late Nov.2010 at near 71p, which was well above the Nov 2009 low of 31p. Then, a year-end rally in BDEV stock began, taking BDEV back near 90p by the end of 2010. We watched to see if the bounce in stocks was going to be strong enough to push back above the 252d/1 year MA near 100p, thinking if that occurred, it should signal a reversal the downturn drift in UK property prices. BDEV rose above 110p, pushing beyond the 252d MA, suggesting that Spring 2011 would bring "upwards bounce" UK-wide home prices. But the action was unconvincing, despite the upwards trend. Early in 2011, I asked on GEI: "Will the UK house price rally last? I think not." The Homebuilder rally faded after the Spring of 2011, and BDEV rolled over at 120p and slid into the summer, as global stock markets suffered a correction. BDEV made a low of 65P in Aug. 2011. And following that pattern with several months lag, the UK Haliwide index peaked at £166,723 in July, and drifted down to a low of £160,554 in Jan. 2012. In Q4-2011, the stock market pessimism was overdone. Global stock markets rallied, and that helped to propel a nice jump in BDEV, all the way up to 150p+ in March 2012. That was a 34% higher high than in 2011. But so far, UK-wide Houseprices have lagged behind the levels seen in the prior year. Perhaps Barratt's share price is benefitting from its London focus, where house prices ARE hitting new highs. Even so, as I write this in July 2012, the stock remains in a clear long term downchannel, albeit it has risen to the top of that channel. BDEV has surged again after a Spring dip, rising to over 140p but remains below its 153p high. A drop in BDEV back below key support at/near 110p on high volume (If we see that), would be a sign that Crash Cruise Speed (with falls averaging more than 0.5% per month), is likely to resume in the housing markets. I expect we will see that after the London Olympics, when I expect realism to return to UK property markets. I still expect a serious slide in UK House prices into 2013 or later.

However, at 23,700, there are still almost double as many buy-to-let mortgages in severe arrears than four years ago. Jardine said: “The rising level of severe tenant arrears has yet to filter through into buy-to-let arrears. In fact, buy-to-let mortgage arrears have been steadily falling since the Bank of England reduced interest rates in 2009. “Landlords have been enjoying historically low mortgage payments, which has cushioned the blow of late rent payments, and many have met the lower mortgage costs with money set aside from slush funds, or rental guarantee schemes. However by necessity an increased number of landlords have had to resort to court orders to remove tenants in long-term arrears, and this has increased. When are the bankers going to wake up, and start charging MORE for BTL mortgages, and lending lower LTV there ? The pressure will intensify greatly after the Olympics IMHO. Mo.: Rt'mov : London : Rest of UK %chg/ Nt'wide H-oldSA Halif.SA Hal.NSA: HNindex : mom : DelusIdx 2012 J. : : 224,060 : 438,324 : 146,967 - 0.28% / 162,228 = n/a = 160,907 158,879 : £160,554 : - 0.16% :139.6% : F. : : 233,252 : 449,252 : 149,658 +1.83% / 162,712 = n/a = 160,118 158,897 : £160,805 :+ 0.16% :145.1% : M : : 236,939 : 455,159 : 151,853 +1.47% / 163,327 = n/a = 163,803 163,419 : £163,373 :+ 1.60% :145.0% : A : : 243,737 : 464,944 : 152,815 +0.63% / 164,134 = n/a = 159,883 161,180 : £162,657 : - 0.44% :149.8% : M : : 243,759 : 469,314 : 152,803 - 0.01% / 166,022 = n/a = 160,941 161,785 : £163,904 : +0.77% :148.7% : J. : : 246,235 : 477,440 : 153,332 +0.35% / 165,738 = n/a = 162,417 163,240 : £164,489 : +0.36% :149.7% : ====================================== mom:+1.01% : +1.73 % : Est.DI : 149.7% / - 0.17% = n/a = :+0.66% : +0.38% :+0.36% : This looks Bullish, but I don't quite believe it is important. HaliWide prices have pushed above the Moving Averages that usually are key resistance, but it has done this during a seasonal highpoint : HaliWde : 12mMa: 48mMa ====== ====== ====== £160,554 163,685 165,244 : J £160,805 163,633 164,711 : F £163,373 163,626 164,263 : M £162,657 163,518 163,803 : A £163,904 163,445 163,467 : M £164,489 163,326 163,204 : J But this is not yet true for Rest-of-UK Prices RestUK : 12mMa: 48mMa ====== ====== ====== 146,967 153,405 156,233 : J 149,658 153,219 155,669 : F 151,853 153,096 155,174 : M 152,815 152,895 154,703 : A 152,803 152,584 154,280 : M 153,332 152,241 153,930 : J Meantime, Greater London prices have gone on rising, as we approach the Olympics

However, at 23,700, there are still almost double as many buy-to-let mortgages in severe arrears than four years ago. Jardine said: “The rising level of severe tenant arrears has yet to filter through into buy-to-let arrears. In fact, buy-to-let mortgage arrears have been steadily falling since the Bank of England reduced interest rates in 2009. “Landlords have been enjoying historically low mortgage payments, which has cushioned the blow of late rent payments, and many have met the lower mortgage costs with money set aside from slush funds, or rental guarantee schemes. However by necessity an increased number of landlords have had to resort to court orders to remove tenants in long-term arrears, and this has increased. When are the bankers going to wake up, and start charging MORE for BTL mortgages, and lending lower LTV there ? The pressure will intensify greatly after the Olympics IMHO. Mo.: Rt'mov : London : Rest of UK %chg/ Nt'wide H-oldSA Halif.SA Hal.NSA: HNindex : mom : DelusIdx 2012 J. : : 224,060 : 438,324 : 146,967 - 0.28% / 162,228 = n/a = 160,907 158,879 : £160,554 : - 0.16% :139.6% : F. : : 233,252 : 449,252 : 149,658 +1.83% / 162,712 = n/a = 160,118 158,897 : £160,805 :+ 0.16% :145.1% : M : : 236,939 : 455,159 : 151,853 +1.47% / 163,327 = n/a = 163,803 163,419 : £163,373 :+ 1.60% :145.0% : A : : 243,737 : 464,944 : 152,815 +0.63% / 164,134 = n/a = 159,883 161,180 : £162,657 : - 0.44% :149.8% : M : : 243,759 : 469,314 : 152,803 - 0.01% / 166,022 = n/a = 160,941 161,785 : £163,904 : +0.77% :148.7% : J. : : 246,235 : 477,440 : 153,332 +0.35% / 165,738 = n/a = 162,417 163,240 : £164,489 : +0.36% :149.7% : ====================================== mom:+1.01% : +1.73 % : Est.DI : 149.7% / - 0.17% = n/a = :+0.66% : +0.38% :+0.36% : This looks Bullish, but I don't quite believe it is important. HaliWide prices have pushed above the Moving Averages that usually are key resistance, but it has done this during a seasonal highpoint : HaliWde : 12mMa: 48mMa ====== ====== ====== £160,554 163,685 165,244 : J £160,805 163,633 164,711 : F £163,373 163,626 164,263 : M £162,657 163,518 163,803 : A £163,904 163,445 163,467 : M £164,489 163,326 163,204 : J But this is not yet true for Rest-of-UK Prices RestUK : 12mMa: 48mMa ====== ====== ====== 146,967 153,405 156,233 : J 149,658 153,219 155,669 : F 151,853 153,096 155,174 : M 152,815 152,895 154,703 : A 152,803 152,584 154,280 : M 153,332 152,241 153,930 : J Meantime, Greater London prices have gone on rising, as we approach the Olympics

New Thread about the Higgs Boson particle, Time Travel, and Wormholes http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=16554 Here's an Excerpt: Wormholes a reality? DOES THIS SOUND CRAZY ? Actually, GEI is lucky enough to have as a member and poster, someone reknowned for his work on the physics of wormholes /that's Mohammad Mansouryar, see a thread he often posts on: Wormholes & Warp Drives... etc. Futuristic ideas from the "Iranian Einstein" : xx === === (He is interested in ways the technology might be used in the future, including for Travel to nearby Erath-like planets. He's an Excerpt from a recent PM he sent me): NASA’s Kepler Mission Confirms Its First Planet in Habitable Zone of Sun-like Star Posted on December 6, 2011 by MM http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-16040655 http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/kepler/news/kepscicon-briefing.html http://news.yahoo.com/nasa-telescope-confirms-alien-planet-habitable-zone-162005358.html a significant stuff, liked some comments of the Yahoo! News, my favorite news website in English, … what comes next? big question is how could we go there? the answer …, readers of this blog exactly know the answer … /see: http://mansouryar.wordpress.com/

UK recovery in doubt as construction slumps Reuters - ‎34 minutes ago‎ By Jonathan Cable LONDON, July 3 (Reuters) - Britain's economy is too weak to produce a meaningful recovery, the British Chambers of Commerce warned on Tuesday, as a survey showed construction activity fell at its fastest pace in two-and-a-half years ...

Gold's LOW - May Be in place ... (from DrB's diary, in case you havent seen it yet): A BREAK of the Resistance may make this Fractal become the defining pattern The last leg down looks more "stretched out" this time As for the Gold Miners, it would be hard to find more Bearish sentiment than this

REMEMBER THIS ?? on April 22, 2012 Forbes reported China would begin purchasing oil from Iran in gold on June 28, 2012 bringing a de facto end to the US Dollar as the world’s reserve currency. In response, world renowned Gold analyst Jim Sinclair stated: Dear CIGAs, The implications of China paying for Iranian oil in gold is the most important event in the modern history of gold 1. It is reasonable to assume that China has been threatened with total or at least selective exclusion from the SWIFT system if it pays in any currency for Iranian oil. 2. Gold has been decided by China as the means of making payment for massive international purchases free of the SWIFT system. 3. Other Asian and Middle Eastern nations will now see the gold they hold as money free of Western economic interference. 4. Gold now is not only money free of liability, but also free from interference regarding settlement by the long arm of Western influence. 5. The SWIFT system is becoming ever more a weapon of Western international political will. 6. In case of war anywhere, it is now demonstrated for all to see that only gold will buy the materials required. Paper currencies are under the SWIFT system’s control in settlement. 7. Far from being a barbaric relic, gold is now clearly the money of state survival in every sense. 8. It is reasonable and possible for the supply of physical gold to fall far behind the size of the massive short positions now common to algorithm and hedge fund paper shorts. That will make an effective cover at a reasonable price as compared to a certain day’s close impossible the following day on an exogenous event. 9. It may not be possible to use TA of any nature to determine a price of overvaluation for gold. Should the USA decide to take on China in full out economic war with the physical market totally illiquid, such as through isolation from the SWIFT system, consider the gold price that might result. Make up your own mind. http://golden-rule.org/2012/06/29/on-green-light-the-event-and-drake/

Which one is the greatest Singer ? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a5YPC0-gHVo Will your answer be the same in 10 years? In 20?

(from AsiaXpat / Here's an interesting idea): Posted by hkxxxpat LGMV has it right, I think. A PE of 10 on HK shares beats a PE of 20-30 on direct invest property (don't forget HK property tax, stamp duty, agent's fee, empty flat costs, calls from tenants at midnight, people tossing fridges/TV/lite ciggies out of top floors - do people still toss TVs?). Better yet, LINK REIT has a PE of 7.4 and div yield of 4.1% (PE of 7.4 means 13.5 yield!). Then with all that spare few hundred hours you visit each shopping centre and car park they own and check on your investments. You are then really invested in HK property with a nice annual income of HK$164k, no tax return either. Just what I would do. But most people will not be deterred by the facts. === === Interesting, no doubt. Here's a chart for Link : http://tinyurl.com/Link-823 For Henderson Land : http://tinyurl.com/HendLd-12 And here's a comparison : http://tinyurl.com/HendLd-v-Link Hend-Land-vs-Link ... update The question that needs to be asked is: Why did Link outperform Henderson Land (HK12) to such a great extent? The answer may be that Shopping boomed in HK, Link successfully upgraded its malls, more than HK12 was able to grow its property development business. But from here, one has to wonder if Link still has more upside? Or if, instead the property developers like HK 12 etc will be the better investment.

STAMP TAX impact How much of a boost did the stamp duty holiday give to lending? The expiry of the stamp duty holiday for first time buyers towards the end of March created significant volatility in the lending data in recent months making it even harder than usual to discern the underlying trend. Mortgage lending to first time buyers in March totalled £3bn, around 40% above usual levels. Moreover, 63% of first time buyer purchases in March were between £125,000 and £250,000, compared with around 50% normally. It’s not hard to understand why the effect on the timing of transactions was so strong - bringing forward purchases offered substantial savings. We estimate that over 200,000 first time buyers benefited from the stamp duty holiday over the last two years, saving a total of nearly £375m - around £1,800 each. It is harder to assess the extent to which the stamp duty holiday generated “additional” first time buyer activity, i.e. purchases that would not otherwise have taken place. Similarly, it is hard to judge how much activity will be dampened by its re-imposition. However, history provides some comfort that the negative impact will be short-lived. Indeed, the decline in activity in recent months echoes the pattern seen at the end of the last stamp duty holiday in December 2009 (see chart below). This provides some comfort that much of the recent softness in housing market activity will subside in the months ahead. /see chart: http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/June_2012.pdf

DELUSION is Rampant - amongst both Buyers and Lenders ======= Mo.: Rt'mov : London : Rest of UK %chg/ Nt'wide H-oldSA Halif.SA Hal.NSA: HNindex : mom : DelusIdx 2012 J. : : 224,060 : 438,324 : 146,967 - 0.28% / 162,228 = n/a = 160,907 158,879 : £160,554 : - 0.16% :139.6% : F. : : 233,252 : 449,252 : 149,658 +1.83% / 162,712 = n/a = 160,118 158,897 : £160,805 :+ 0.16% :145.1% : M : : 236,939 : 455,159 : 151,853 +1.47% / 163,327 = n/a = 163,803 163,419 : £163,373 :+ 1.60% :145.0% : A : : 243,737 : 464,944 : = n/a = : = n/a = / 164,134 = n/a = 159,883 161,180 : £162,657 : - 0.44% :149.8% : M : : 243,759 : 469,314 : = n/a = : = n/a = / 166,022 = n/a = 160,941 161,785 : £163,904 : +0.77% :148.7% : J. : : 246,235 : 477,440 : = n/a = : = n/a = / 165,738 ====================================== mom:+1.01% : +1.73 % : Est.DI : 150.2% / - 0.17% = n/a = :+0.66% : +0.38% :+0.77% : Highest (estimated) Delusion Index in my records EXCERPT - From Rightmove's Release - They never let the market "clear" in a Recession Previous recessions have been driven by measures taken to combat inflation, with soaring interest rates and repossession numbers. Those high numbers of forced sales helped to provide liquidity in the housing market, something the current downturn lacks. The result is a very patchy market characterised by reduced transaction volumes, with low interest rates helping to keep people in their homes, exacerbating the supply shortage in locations of high demand. At £477,440, London is up 1.7% (£8,126) on the previous average asking price high set last month, while the South East is 0.5% (£1,662) above its previous record set in October 2011. The South West too is only some £300 off an all-time high. Removing London’s record-breaking performance from the dataset demonstrates the extent of its impact on the national average. Stripped of all the capital’s properties, the average asking price across the rest of the country would still be more than 5% adrift of its peak recorded nearly five years ago in August 2007. Shipside comments: “These strong rises in the south of the country have helped to push the national average asking price into new record territory. In these uncertain economic times, lenders feel safer to lend to those with a cash-cushion, and those sitting on that cash often feel more comfortable with it invested in tangible assets, including bricks and mortar. The better properties in the better areas remain in short supply, giving sellers of sought-after stock, and their agents, the confidence to come to market at a higher price. The right property within commuting or holiday bolt-hole distance of the capital seems to be an attractive each-way bet with the potential to be both recession-proof and offer good odds to keep pace with, or even outstrip, inflation”. /more: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/files/2012/06/june-2012.pdf I don't think that London's outperformance, in economic growth and in home price rises, is quite as assured as Rightmove seems to think. There may be a great SHOCK ahead, when the UK's borrowing capacity "hits a wall", a very predictable wall.