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BIG FIRMS WORRY TOO Here are the topics that a Major firm will cover in their... Full Update on the London residential market • the Stamp Duty Land Tax changes • the proposed annual charges and capital gains tax on sale of UK residential property owned by non-UK resident, non-natural persons - the consultation process • the implications for existing structures • how purchases of UK residential and commercial property should now be structured in order to minimise UK tax • update on the statutory residence test

Those gullible FTB-ers who buy with 5% deposits would then get fried, and the banks that lend to them may soon be in trouble. I think NO ONE in those banks should get a cash bonus. All bonuses should be payable in 3-5 year preferred stock, and if the bank melts down, that that stock would lose most of its value Paying bonuses to idiots who hatch reckless schemes like that is the worst sort of moral hazard. Or maybe they should tell the bankers after a meltdown: "You can keep your homes, or your bonuses, but not both." Then they would experience some of the pain they cause for others.

Daily Digest 5/8 - Geithner Channels Greenspan, Dead Dolphins And Birds Causing Alarm In Peru, What Is The Limiting Factor? May 8, 2012, 10:52 am, by DailyDigest What Is The Limiting Factor? Return To The Gold Standard? French Center-Right Assesses Two Unpalatable Paths Qaeda Plot to Attack Plane Foiled, U.S. Officials Say Change in Paris May Better Fit U.S. Economic Positions Bill Black: Geithner Channels Greenspan and Airbrushes Fraud out of our Crises Japan to seek stable oil supply from Saudi Arabia Dead Dolphins and Birds Are Causing Alarm in Peru Once An Urban Landfill, Now A Rowing Paradise /C-Martensen: http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/daily-digest-58/75275?utm_source=newsletter_2012-05-12&utm_medium=email_newsletter&utm_content=node_title_75275&utm_campaign=weekly_newsletter_70 Bill Black: Geithner Channels Greenspan and Airbrushes Fraud out of our Crises (Jaime) Three preliminary comments are in order. First, Geithner was selected to be the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) in 2003. The President of the FRBNY has the second most important position in the Federal Reserve System. It is essential that the FRBNY President study and understand the causes of financial crises. Geithner had ample time and incentive to conduct such a study. Second, no one challenged Geithner when he (implicitly) claimed that fraud was not even worthy of mention or consideration as a contributor to financial crises. Third, even if Geithner were correct that fraud was only a relatively small contributor to the Great Recession that would provide no basis for not prosecuting the elite frauds who made that illegal contribution. http://www.capitalismwithoutfailure.com/2012/05/bill-black-geithner-channels-greenspan.html

There's something Good about this? Propping up the builders Daily Mail: Buy a £500,000 home with just FIVE PER CENT deposit! PM hopes new scheme will get first-time buyers back on the property ladder (just in time for the next crash! - Will someone shoot him BEFORE the damage is done please!) £1bn of taxpayers' cash to be used to guarantee loans for new-build homes Barclays, Nationwide and NatWest to offer 95% mortgages under scheme But MPs fear NewBuy deal, which is open to ALL buyers, could spark another credit crisis And deal is derided as gimmick that will only help construction industry

That could be smart here, or maybe options on AGQ, like the UGL Bull spreads I have bought

Maybe they anticipated a pre-Olympic bubble RENTS get hyped, and that drives some towards buying. What a great set-up for a Top !

Might THIS be the reason? London stays out of UK property price drops House prices fell by 0.6 per cent in March, taking the average property value in England and Wales year-on-year to 160,372, Land Registry figures have revealed. London experienced the highest increase in property values, increasing 0.7 per cent since March 2011, while Wales experienced the greatest annual fall, decreasing 5.5 per cent. (But this part doesn't sound promising): He said: “Lending to new buyers will drop sharply this quarter as mortgage lenders struggle to cope with their increased funding costs. Up until now, the banks have absorbed increasing costs rather than passing them onto the consumer. That policy has veiled serious underlying weaknesses in the mortgage market and the way it’s funded. “Now lenders’ balance sheets are stretched to breaking point, those weaknesses are coming to bear. Lenders have told the Bank of England they will be forced to ship extra costs onto customers in the form of higher rates and fewer high loan-to-value loans. This will put the brakes on first time buyer activity, and reverberate through the rest of the market.” /more: http://www.ftadviser.com/2012/05/09/mortgages/mortgage-products/london-stays-out-of-uk-property-price-drops-CoMluWBFNJCy1D0fzOWBsN/article.html

NEW PROPERTY "BARGAIN" AT LONG BEACH, Olympic Station ? Maybe. (from the AX website) Sid_1: ====== "Yes, of course it's ALWAYS better to buy secondhand. Not nearly always, but always always." No it isn't and there isn't the evidence to prove it either. walkup3 ====== Sid_1: "Yes, of course it's ALWAYS better to buy secondhand. Not nearly always, but always always." No it isn't and there isn't the evidence to prove it either. And a litany of anecdotes doesn't suffice either. There is no doubt that new property developments can be a snakepit for the unwary investor, particularly in non-prime secondary areas, but there are also opportunities. In the past new property provided a lovely playpen for flippers and that has slid away, but to say that purchasing second-hand property provides a lesser risk than new property doesn't justify writing off all new property purchases. It just isn't so. OffThePeak ====== No. Secondhand is not "always, always" better than new. Back in 2006, We bought a NEW High floor 3BR flat of 1220 sf at Caribbean Coast in Tung Chung for just under HK$3.5mn. At the time, a similar secondhand flat would have cost maybe $3.7mn. This was from Cheung Kong, who are known to "dump" their flats at Low prices at certain times, when they have an excessive number of flats to sel. There may be an opportunity like that in Olympic station, if one of my local agents is to be believed. The Long Beach has sold 3 of its 8 towers, back in 2007. They are going to put one of the Towers on the market in the next few days. Viewings will start in Saturday afternoon. The agent called my partner, and said he expected prices to be $8,000 -10,000 psf. If that is true, it will be an incredible bargain. My informed opinion is that TLB is a much better property, with a better clubhouse than Park Summit which just sold out at around $9,000 -10,000 average price. Watch this space... /source: http://hongkong.asiaxpat.com/forums/hong-kong-property/threads/146307/dont-buy-a-new-property/

I think you may need to wait a bit longer. Perhaps an SPX below 1,300 will do it

Hong Kongers have too much wealth in property, to easily become forced sellers, if the market dives. DISTRICT------ : Ave. Flat Price : Mort. % : If 50% Drop (HK Island) Central & West : HK$7,326,900 : 27.30 % : 54.59% Wan Chai------ : HK$9,371,600 : 29.88% : 59.76% (Kowloon) Yau Tsim Mong : HK$7,233,800 : 23.09% : 46.17% Kowloon City-- : HK$5,325,600 : 37.55% : 75.11% (New T.) Tsuen Wan----- : HK$3,309,600 : 45.32% : 90.65% Yuen Long----- : HK$2,537,500 : 41.38% : 82.76% Islands---------- : HK$3,514,700 : 45.52% : 91.05% (data from today's SCMP Property section) "Also: more than 700,000 owener occupiers have no mortgages, versus fewer than 500,000 who have them" If banks do not foreclose on many properties "all at once" (that seems unlikely), then a sustained deep property fall will not be triggered. The least vulnerable areas are: Yau Tsim Mong, and Central & Western. Most vulnerable are: Tsuen Wan, and the Outlying Islands. People simply haven't had enough time in their homes to build equity, and many FTBers go to those areas to find cheaper prices, so they can buy with smaller deposits.

Impact of the expiring Stamp Tax holiday. Just wait until the Olympics are out of the way, and they can get things moving (to the downside) in London ! Mo.: Rt'mov : London : Rest of UK %chg/ Nt'wide H-oldSA Halif.SA Hal.NSA: HNindex : mom : DelusIdx 2012 J. : : 224,060 : 438,324 : 146,967 - 0.28% / 162,228 = n/a = 160,907 158,879 : £160,554 : - 0.16% :139.6% : F. : : 233,252 : 449,252 : 149,658 +1.83% / 162,712 = n/a = 160,118 158,897 : £160,805 :+ 0.16% :145.1% : M : : 236,939 : 455,159 : 151,853 +1.47% / 163,327 = n/a = 163,803 163,419 : £163,373 :+ 1.60% :145.0% : A : : 243,737 : 464,944 : = n/a = :: = n/a = / 164,134 = n/a = 159,883 161,180 : £162,657 : - 0.44% :149.8% : ====================================== mom:+2.87% : +2.15 % : -Est.DI : 149.5% / +0.49% = n/a = : -2.39% : -1.37% : -0.44%

Many Stops hit all at once! - Or maybe an Illuminatus dumping some gold (before it goes lower) to replenish dwindling cash reserves (?) - you know, to pay body guards and private armies. / haha - just kidding. But YNK /

whoops

Once again, Sinclair is quoting JL on the value of sitting tight in bull markets: ""Well, you know this is a bull market!" he really meant to tell them that the big money was not in the individual fluctuations but in the main movements that is, not in reading the tape but in sizing up the entire market and its trend. And right here let me say one thing: After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!" Of course, the sitting-tight-maneuver by the Gold cult, allowed the traders who can spot parabolic moves, a nice easy exit around $1900. I wonder if Livermore would have been one of those exiting at $1900 if he had been alive today? My own trading of options and Bull Spreads has allowed me to re-enter the market with limited risk and at low cost, and still have plenty of cash on the sidelines. Personally, I think if JL were alive today, that's how he would be playing it, not sitting on his hands.

That's one way to draw the chart This is from JS's website He expects Gold to bottom when Gold lease rates spike up: They may be there with Gold at $1600 /see:

Has anyone kept up with Mr Sinclair's thinking on this price move? (I wonder of his illuminati friends have turned forced sellers as their alternative sources of cash are closed down.)

OUR PERMA-BULL Lurkers might like these charts

I haven't bought yet - since SHKP has stayed above $90 HK16 ... update But it may slide to expected support in the high $80s soon. HK16: $90.10 / Change: -2.50 / Percent Change: -2.70% Open: 91.00 / High: 91.25 / Low: 90.00 Volume: 5,896,080

Gold-to-WTI Ratio looks set to Rock-and-Roll ! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2BAImUIzyTU Not exactly a rocket, but it may bring some sort of Takeoff, I reckon

Okay So they are being PROTECTED by reluctant banks. For once: "Good on the banks."

NNVC / NanoViricides Inc. (OBB) 5/2/2012 Last: 0.56 -0.01 Open: 0.585 High: 0.63 Low: 0.56 Volume: 162,098 Percent Change: -1.75%

"Now more people are making a lifestyle choice not to commit to the financial burden of a mortgage, and to benefit from the flexibility of renting in the long term rather than the short term. "Inevitably, this means that less old stock is coming back onto the market, and the supply-demand balance is being disrupted." Simon Ward, director of the Dorset-based estate agents Mr Green, says: "With many young people still reluctant to take on the responsibility of a mortgage, there is a temptation to talk of a Generation Rent - suffering ever increasing rent, but unwilling or unable to take out a mortgage." A recent report for the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors suggested that home ownership in England has been falling since 2003 and has also fallen in the US, Australia, Austria, Finland and the Irish Republic, among others. If current trends were projected forward, then by 2025 the percentage of home ownership could be below 60% - lower than most other European countries. /source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15287743

"Now more people are making a lifestyle choice not to commit to the financial burden of a mortgage, and to benefit from the flexibility of renting in the long term rather than the short term. "Inevitably, this means that less old stock is coming back onto the market, and the supply-demand balance is being disrupted." Simon Ward, director of the Dorset-based estate agents Mr Green, says: "With many young people still reluctant to take on the responsibility of a mortgage, there is a temptation to talk of a Generation Rent - suffering ever increasing rent, but unwilling or unable to take out a mortgage." A recent report for the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors suggested that home ownership in England has been falling since 2003 and has also fallen in the US, Australia, Austria, Finland and the Irish Republic, among others. If current trends were projected forward, then by 2025 the percentage of home ownership could be below 60% - lower than most other European countries. /source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15287743 Can they not see that prices are set up for a slide now/ ie Post Olympics? What use are these sort of market comments

2.5 Million Tonnes = That's how much Gold Wilcock says exists "above ground" (The official figure is about 160,000 metric tonnes) A BIT OF BACK STORY An insider named “Jade Lion” came forward late last year. A friend of mine has known him for many years — and he is impeccably trustworthy. Jade Lion revealed that there is a massive vein of gold running through southern China and parts of Southeast Asia, including Cambodia and Laos. Once this is made public, geologists can argue over how such a huge deposit formed in one area of the world — but that’s the situation. These Asian countries pulled out tons and tons of gold from this deposit, and fashioned it into all sorts of wondrous treasures. They kept this gold a secret, as much as possible — but no one can completely hide something that spectacular. The Federal Reserve bankers knew about this gold, and concocted a systematic plan in the 1700s to seize it. HOW IT WAS DONE — IN BRIEF Though I have said this several times before, here is a brief recap of what happened. Adam Smith published “The Wealth of Nations” in 1776. This argued that private ownership of gold would inevitably cause wars and catastrophes, as people continued fighting over scarce resources. The “Illuminati” was formed in Bavaria, now a part of Germany, that same year. The goals of the “Illuminati” included a total domination of the planet and its resources. Documents were seized and published by the Bavarian government that laid out the whole plan — and some of the conspirators were arrested. Nonetheless, the plan persisted. World War I was planned, decades in advance, to convince world leaders that they had to surrender their gold into a combined world depository if they wanted peace. THE PLAN SHIFTS INTO ACTION After World War I, Japanese emperor Hirohito had a key meeting in 1921 with the bankers in London to work out the details of a largely-secret plan to confiscate the world’s gold — and put it on “deposit” with the Federal Reserve. The international version of the Federal Reserve came to be called the Bank for International Settlements, or BIS. By hiding away all the gold, no nations could publicly compete over it. They were told they would all be given fair access to it through their Ministries of Finance. The public would not know how much gold was there — and the actual depositories would be guarded and protected with lethal force. Laws were passed worldwide making it illegal to own gold. Those who did not hand it over willingly had it stolen from them. This is a matter of public record. THE BONDS Federal Reserve bonds were issued to the countries who surrendered their gold — from one of the twelve Federal Reserve banks in the United States. Some of these were 1928 series, but most were 1934 series. We have extensive photographic documentation of these bonds in Financial Tyranny. Over and over again, you hear stories about it in the news — especially recently. In a future update, I will cover the stunning number of bond seizures that have occurred just in the last few months — at staggering dollar values. Even so, the mainstream media continues to try to tell us that this is purely a scam. The bonds were given deliberate mistakes so that if anyone tried to cash them, they could be seen as fraudulent. More recently, a certain number of bonds were printed on inkjet printers and included in the collection — so they could be further used as “proof” that they were fraudulent. EVERYTHING IS REACHING A HEAD NOW As the spot price of gold has increased, the Federal Reserve has been obligated to issue more and more bonds to the original holders in Asia — but they are worthless. A typical chest of bonds, filled with ten sealed metal boxes of bonds, has three trillion dollars’ worth of bonds in it. The Federal Reserve has done its best to suppress the price of gold — so as to avoid this situation continuing to spiral out of control, requiring them to print more and more bonds for the original holders. Nonetheless, they have been cranking out 1934-series bonds for many years now. This situation has reached a peak point of crisis. The aggrieved countries have formed an alliance to stop the corruption. . . . A BIT OF THE LEGALESE President Soekarno of Indonesia was given the legal, historic rights to the seized gold, since 85 percent of it was from Asia. This was granted in 1948, under UN Resolution MISA 81704, Operation Heavy Freedom. Soekarno was appointed as M1, (Monetary Controller). The entire centralized system was legally put under his disposal as Trustee. The bullion was deposited into the centralized system of the “Bank for International Settlements” by a group of Trustees that Soekarno appointed. These Trustees formed an association now known as the Amanah, or the Mandates. After years of total frustration and deception, the Mandates have been completely unable to regain any access to their gold. They assigned their authority over the accounts to Neil F. Keenan and Keith F. Scott. This allowed for the networking necessary to draw the international community — including the “good guys” in the Pentagon — into this fight, so justice could be served. The filing of liens against the Federal Reserve and its constituents is the next big step in freeing our planet. /more: http://www.divinecosmos.com/start-here/davids-blog/1051-g7banks

SEEING THROUGH the Hype This was posted on a Hong Kong website: Hey, people of Hong Kong: If you think the property salesmen from the UK "saw you coming," then you are probably right. The Estate Agents from the London seem to think that HK people will buy anything, and pay some silly prices, way beyond whay local people will pay. This thread is to collect examples to show how little some agents respect the intelligence of the HK-based property investor. I will start with these: + What is a "prime location"? The EA's seem to think it is anywhere that the developers are willing to ask a cheeky price for a property? + What's the rental return going to be? It has nothing to do with what properties in the area actually achieve, it is calculated by taking the price and multiplying it by about 5% - and then stating flatly: "this is what we expect landlords to achieve." + What are that likely tax and other costs associated with owning a Uk property? If you want to see what an EA looks like when the are "playing dumb", then just ask this question. Have they told you, as the SCMP did today that: + "The UK government announced that as of April next year non-resident "non-natural persons" will pay capital gains tax (CGT) on the disposal of a UK property." + "With immediate effect a non-UK company that purchases residential property in Britain valued at over GBP 2 million will have to pay Stamp Duty Land Tax at 15 percent."