drbubb

Some interesting arguments in that article, and I LOVE these two charts (1) (2) - explained in the article, but BRIEFLY: The gold price is manipulated during a certain period during the day

(note- sorry about changing some numbers above - I don't actually look at "shares of wealth" so precisely as my numbers imply.) Okay. Thanks. I do get your point. My "Core" concept requires a bit more dynamic management. But I think that my method of measurement will enhance performance over time, since you will wind up increasing and shrinking your Core holdings somewhat in response to opportunities that arise. Isn't that what Dominic is moving towards in his writings: "...Note to self, a warning: I have come to, I suppose, love gold - or at least the idea of it, and the glorious, free society it offers at the end of the rainbow. But I shouldn't. It's just an investment. So be warned and take note: should we ever see that exponential final euphoric bull market phase, then come back and read this, sober up and sell." Maybe: Sell some. As I am suggesting. Could be better

Nope. It is not confusing for me. Buy & Hold for me is when I buy something other than Options or Option spreads. I call it "Core holding" and it consists of shares like: PHYS, MNT.t, maybe GLD shares, and some physical Gold. I want to look at it as a SHARE OF MY OVERALL WEALTH - like 10-20% or something. If Gold prices spike up, and it rises to say, more than 20-40% (or something) of my wealth, then I would consider selling some, and buying something cheaper to replace it. That would be especially true when Inflation is not rising, and when you look at a measure like Gold-in-CRB, you see that the Ratio has shot up too fast, like it did last year:

When with London property prices get really cheap? When they are Cutting off Electricity and Water during a period of Hyperinflation From a thread that deserves more attention: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=16185

Embracing Buy & Hold ? LOL That is EXACTLY when you want to be thinking Buy & Hold - when prices are cheap, not when they are spiking upwards. If you change your mind, and shrink the size if your core position, you can do it at a higher price. In fact, I tend to think of my B&H core as a fixed US$ amount, which rise in size as my total wealth rises. This way, when prices spike higher - I have room to sell... Especially when inflation remains tame.

If Gold was so consistent as that, then just wait for the 20% rise, and then look to sell it somewhere beyond that. Buy it back after the inevitable correction. That's something like what I do when I look at the channel

In case you are feeling unloved this morning

I don't want to jinx myself, but... I have not only been making bullish noises about Gold, I have been buying it. I wouldn't be at all surprised if I now control more Gold (thru GLD calls) than most of the so-called Gurus quoted here. I really hope this buy works out, and we all makes some good money from here. If not, we will all suffer together. As you all know, I am not a perma-bull. I really do try to respond to opportunity: Buying gold when it is cheap, selling some when it climbs, and holding a growing core position. === === I also see that Dominic Frisby is trying to distance himself from the most extreme of the Gold purists EXCERPT: he says: Look, for example, at how angry and aggressive those who are long gold can become when someone dismisses it. I'm thinking, in particular, about the slagging off Nouriel Roubini receives on Twitter when he baits gold bugs. (I knocked him myself in one article). Certain pro-gold websites have become almost cultish. (amen to that !) . . . So this Money Morning is a kind of note to self, a warning. I have come to, I suppose, love gold - or at least the idea of it, and the glorious, free society it offers at the end of the rainbow. But I shouldn't. It's just an investment. So be warned and take note: should we ever see that exponential final euphoric bull market phase, then come back and read this, sober up and sell. Having a thrown a wet blanket over you all, I should say that my big picture view for gold is that the end of this bull market is still not within sight. All the main drivers - monetary stress, deficit spending, debt, currency debasement, ballooning money supply, negative real rates and so on - are still in place. . . . (then he joins our little chorus saying a low may be in place) In the shorter term, I feel we are still in consolidation mode after the run up to $1,920 last August-September and remain of the mind that we won't see new highs before next autumn at the earliest, though I'll be glad to be wrong on that. And in the very short term, I think we put in a low last week around $1,625 and that we should see a nice run up to the $1,800 mark over the next few weeks. /source: http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/precious-metals-and-gems/gold/money-morning-warning-to-gold-investors-21300 I concur with that. But haven't yet any clear idea how far it might go. I shall have to stay alert for signs of when to lighten up

THE HK-BASED AGENTS may be getting some resistance to higher priced UK properties (I received this email today) EXCERPT: I have just secured a development of 9 apartments - a mixture of one-bed and two-beds. I can sell a 1-bed for GBP230,950 including a furniture pack and all closing costs. I can sell a 2-bed for GBP249,950 including a furniture pack and all closing costs. The properties will be delivered upon settlement yielding 6% with a tenant in place and fully managed. The development is under construction, currently up to roof level, and is set to complete in August of this year.

A valid point. But when I look at all the Data, two things Jump Out at me: Mo.: Rt'mov : London : Rest of UK %chg/ Nt'wide H-oldSA Halif.SA Hal.NSA: HNindex : mom : DelusIdx 2011 J. : : 223,122 : 413,259 : 127,148 - 0.25% / 161,211 = n/a = 164,145 161,470 : £161,341 :- 0.33% :138.3% : F. : : 230,030 : 430,680 : 125,624 - 1.20% / 161,183 = n/a = 162,697 161,680 : £161,432 :+ 0.06% :142.5% : M : : 231,790 : 424,307 : 127,160 +1.22% / 164,751 = n/a = 162,712 162,151 : £163,451 :+ 1.25% :141.8% : A : : 235,822 : 431,013 : 127,721 +0.44% / 165,609 = n/a = 160,393 162,303 : £163,956 :+ 0.31% :143.8% : M : : 238,874 : 430,936 : 128,189 +0.37% / 167,208 = n/a = 161,039 162,344 : £164,776 :+ 0.50% :145.0% : J. : : 240,394 : 438,622 : 128,965 +0.61% / 168,205 = n/a = 163,430 163,642 : £165,924 :+ 0.70% :144.9% : Jl : : 236,597 : 432,641 : 129,766 +0.62% / 168,731 = n/a = 163,981 164,714 : £166,723 :+ 0.48% :141.9% : A : : 231,543 : 418,008 : 128,105 -1.28% / 165,914 = n/a = 161,743 162,076 : £163,995 : - 1.64% :141.2% : S : : 233.139 : 427,889 : 128,821 +0.55% / 166,256 = n/a = 161,132 162,375 : £164,316 : + 0.20% :141.9% : O : : 239,672 : 450,210 : 127,252 -1.22% / 165,650 = n/a = 163,311 164,311 : £164,981 : + 0.40% :145.3% :H N : : 232,144 : 444,724 : 124,083 -2.49% / 165,798 = n/a = 161,731 160,801 : £163,300 : - 1.02% :142.2% : D : : 225,766 : 434,871 : 12X,xxx - X.xx% / 163,822 = n/a = 160,063 157,803 : £160,813 : - 1.52% :140.4% : 2012 J. : : 224,060 : 438,324 : 12X,xxx - X.xx% / 162,228 = n/a = 160,907 158,879 : £160,554 : - 0.16% :139.6% : F. : : 233,252 : 449,252 : 12X,xxx - X.xx% / 162,712 = n/a = 160,118 158,897 : £160,805 :+ 0.16% :145.1% : M : : 236,939 : 455,159 : 12X,xxx - X.xx% / 163,327 = n/a ====================================== mom:+1.58% : +1.31 % : -Est.DI : 147.3% / + 0.38% = n/a = : - 0.49% : +0.01% : +0.16% (1) Nationwide is down Year-on-Year from 164,751 to 163,327 in March 2012 - that's -0.86% (2) The Delusion Index, estimated for March, is 147.3%, a record "nose bleed" level. I reckon that the Sellers are going to find that theirre confidence gets very thoroughly crushed in the weeks and months to come, and when reality strikes home after the Olympics, the market will wake up and find it is in Crash-cruise-speed freefall, rather than the gentle sides-to-down drift that we have been seeing in recent months.

A valid point. But when I look at all the Data, two things Jump Out at me: Mo.: Rt'mov : London : Rest of UK %chg/ Nt'wide H-oldSA Halif.SA Hal.NSA: HNindex : mom : DelusIdx 2011 J. : : 223,122 : 413,259 : 127,148 - 0.25% / 161,211 = n/a = 164,145 161,470 : £161,341 :- 0.33% :138.3% : F. : : 230,030 : 430,680 : 125,624 - 1.20% / 161,183 = n/a = 162,697 161,680 : £161,432 :+ 0.06% :142.5% : M : : 231,790 : 424,307 : 127,160 +1.22% / 164,751 = n/a = 162,712 162,151 : £163,451 :+ 1.25% :141.8% : A : : 235,822 : 431,013 : 127,721 +0.44% / 165,609 = n/a = 160,393 162,303 : £163,956 :+ 0.31% :143.8% : M : : 238,874 : 430,936 : 128,189 +0.37% / 167,208 = n/a = 161,039 162,344 : £164,776 :+ 0.50% :145.0% : J. : : 240,394 : 438,622 : 128,965 +0.61% / 168,205 = n/a = 163,430 163,642 : £165,924 :+ 0.70% :144.9% : Jl : : 236,597 : 432,641 : 129,766 +0.62% / 168,731 = n/a = 163,981 164,714 : £166,723 :+ 0.48% :141.9% : A : : 231,543 : 418,008 : 128,105 -1.28% / 165,914 = n/a = 161,743 162,076 : £163,995 : - 1.64% :141.2% : S : : 233.139 : 427,889 : 128,821 +0.55% / 166,256 = n/a = 161,132 162,375 : £164,316 : + 0.20% :141.9% : O : : 239,672 : 450,210 : 127,252 -1.22% / 165,650 = n/a = 163,311 164,311 : £164,981 : + 0.40% :145.3% :H N : : 232,144 : 444,724 : 124,083 -2.49% / 165,798 = n/a = 161,731 160,801 : £163,300 : - 1.02% :142.2% : D : : 225,766 : 434,871 : 12X,xxx - X.xx% / 163,822 = n/a = 160,063 157,803 : £160,813 : - 1.52% :140.4% : 2012 J. : : 224,060 : 438,324 : 12X,xxx - X.xx% / 162,228 = n/a = 160,907 158,879 : £160,554 : - 0.16% :139.6% : F. : : 233,252 : 449,252 : 12X,xxx - X.xx% / 162,712 = n/a = 160,118 158,897 : £160,805 :+ 0.16% :145.1% : M : : 236,939 : 455,159 : 12X,xxx - X.xx% / 163,327 = n/a ====================================== mom:+1.58% : +1.31 % : -Est.DI : 147.3% / + 0.38% = n/a = : - 0.49% : +0.01% : +0.16% (1) Nationwide is down Year-on-Year from 164,751 to 163,327 in March 2012 - that's -0.86% (2) The Delusion Index, estimated for March, is 147.3%, a record "nose bleed" level. I reckon that the Sellers are going to find that theirre confidence gets very thoroughly crushed in the weeks and months to come, and when reality strikes home after the Olympics, the market will wake up and find it is in Crash-cruise-speed freefall, rather than the gentle sides-to-down drift that we have been seeing in recent months.

Newmont CEO: China causing gold swings Newmont Mining CEO Richard O'Brien says that a struggling Chinese economy is causing short term volatility in gold prices. /Video: http://money.cnn.com/video/markets/2012/03/27/mkts-ss-newmont-ceo.cnnmoney/ He predicts Gold-$2000 by year end. The Newmont dividend is now directly linked to Gold prices

Mines produce if they can. Most make very good money at current prices. They owe much thanks to Mr Ben Bernanke

Interesting. I rate Coxe, and so not see him as a Perma-bull on Gold

From AX: OffThePeak posted: CAUTIOUS ATTITUDE (Not much interest in this thread yet - Perhaps it will grow over time. But I shall continue recording comments, and excerpts from News article. I do think it will make an interesting historical record.) I liked the Interviews in today's SCMP Property Section. I expect many here will have similar views to the interviewees. EXCERPTS: + Jeff Pao, 34: ... I dont think he will make the market collapse, but I also think he won't take any measure to support property prices if they begin to fall... I think prices will begin to fall as soon as 2014 once interest rates start to rise, and new housing supply increase. + Palanka Lik, mid-30's: I am a mainlander working in HK and recently bought a flat... I don't expect home prices to fall because there is limited supply... and I don't think the new CEO will do anything to cause drastic change... property is the backbone of HK's economy. + Matt Burden, 41: My understanding is that the new CE proposes to increase land supply in the New Territories, where most expatriates wouldn't consider living... Lots of people, like me, who are renting would consider buying if prices fell 30% or so... A property agent at Centaline (James Au Yeung) said: "Home seekers will return to the market within weeks once they see there has been no big change in home prices." /see CYL thread: http://hongkong.asiaxpat.com/forums/hong-kong-property/threads/146074/cy-leungs-impact-on-hk-property/

I will respond too... Purely from a chart perspective, I think that Barratt will work its way a bit higher. BDEV.L / Barratt Development ... update

I will respond too... Purely from a chart perspective, I think that Barratt will work its way a bit higher. BDEV.L / Barratt Development ... update - an old post:

Okay. Enough "yeas", and no "neas" - so it is done now !

So long as some people have more capital than others. Those with capital will consider investing it in ways that the capital-poor are unable to do. Why not allow them to be free to "Rent" the fruits of their spending to others who have less, or don't want to take the risk of making the required investment

Some think property is more "real" than paper money or gold - it generates rent or "use" afterall. And they chide those who put their money elsewhere. Others, like Warren Buffett, favor shares, with their dividends. My thinking is not "odd", just more flexible and open-minded than yours. There are potential "holes" in the argument for Gold. It is best not to forget that.

??? My efforts in the investment world are just are real as the efforts anyone else does. And The fact that I am an experienced and serious student of markets should make my insights more valuable, not less so.

Now that the Horses have bolted ... http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2012/mar/20/nationwide-interest-only-mortgages [Tuesday 20 March 2012] Nationwide tightens up on interest-only mortgages Nationwide slashes LTV on its interest-only deals, raising fears it will leave thousands of borrowers as 'mortgage prisoners Nationwide building society has slashed the maximum loan-to-value (LTV) ratio on its interest-only mortgages from 75% to 50%, leading to fears that interest-only deals will eventually disappear, and leaving thousands of "mortgage prisoners" unable to switch to new deals. The rule change means borrowers will have to stump up a deposit of £80,773 to afford an average home in England and Wales on an interest-only basis. The lender, which lowered the LTV for interest-only borrowers from 85% to 75% in April 2011, said the policy was a response to similar changes by other lenders. Industry insiders said Santander's decision in February 2012 to reduce its maximum lending on an interest-only basis to 50% LTV led to borrowers flocking to Nationwide for interest-only deals. Martyn Dyson, head of mortgages at Nationwide, said: "A number of major lenders have recently restricted their criteria for interest-only mortgages, and Nationwide needs to be able to manage application levels in a prudent and sustainable manner. The group is therefore amending its policy to a maximum of 50% LTV."

Fine. Provided it is in the right location, and not overvalued

Thanks. 2-3 more comments in favor (with none against), and I will combine them. Should I combine the SILVER thread as well, into a larger Gold&Silver thread

Many of the old "B&H Purists" seem to have moved on. I am considering combining this Gold Discussion thread, with the Old Gold thread. Please let me have any posiive and negative comments about that possibility. Personally, I would like to keep this as a separate New Thread, but most of the feedback I have had so far, is in favor of combining them. In the end, I will do what a majority of people (with a constructive view of GEI) want to do.