drbubb

Several Good calls here - but some big misses too. He seems to get the stock market more right than other markets

From the Walkability thread (see below) I made the same point in a Podcast interview with Dom and J.Davis (towards the end):

LOL. "too small" (for some) would have seemed like an advantage to true "downsizers" Even before the Olympics: London : First Cracks House prices in London have fallen for the first time in 30 months, figures reveal today. The drop comes after Britain slid into a double dip recession and wipes hundreds of pounds off the average home — now worth just under £370,000. It coincides with a series of warnings that British families face more pain ahead and that things could get far worse if the European single currency breaks up. Finances in the UK will be squeezed for 18 months as incomes rise more slowly than prices in the shops, said the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. /more: http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/news/london/london-property-prices-the-first-cracks-7778000.html

Hmm. What does "allocated" mean then? "We will do our best to get it, when you ask"?

MANY countries to the US Federal Reserve (and the BIS): "WE want OUR gold back !" This story could have legs.

"Experts said cheap deals are being replaced every day by more expensive options." No wonder people want to Downsize their homes, and downsize their mortgages !

Early end to spring bounce as May draws first-ever blank Average Property Asking Price May-£243,759 Apr-£243,737 % Change in Month +0.0% +2.9% % Change in Past Year +2.0% +3.4% Monthly Index == 198.3 198.3 · New seller asking prices fail to rise in May for the first time since the inception of Rightmove’s House Price Index as spring price bounce hits the buffers with prices at a standstill (+0%) · Market takes a ‘breather’ as both demand and new supply reduce: == 1. Demand lessens through combination of end of first-time buyer stamp duty assistance, some upward mortgage rate movements and renewed Eurozone jitters 2. Spring supply numbers stall too, with properties coming to market down 10% on April 3. Will summer sporting and Jubilee distractions continue to dampen activity like rainy May? == · Growing market mismatch as two in five sellers state they are looking to trade down, drawn from the equity-rich baby-boomer generation, outweighing the one in four intending to trade up - ‘Downtrading’ the main reason to sell in nine regions, London the affluent exception - Knock-on ‘trader-upper’ volumes dented by end of stamp duty incentives to first-time buyers /report: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/files/2012/05/may-2012.pdf "Downtrading" : a New term (?) and a big new trend, more than likely. Will lead to : Sell Now, Buy later - I reckon Mo.: Rt'mov : London : Rest of UK %chg/ Nt'wide H-oldSA Halif.SA Hal.NSA: HNindex : mom : DelusIdx 2012 J. : : 224,060 : 438,324 : 146,967 - 0.28% / 162,228 = n/a = 160,907 158,879 : £160,554 : - 0.16% :139.6% : F. : : 233,252 : 449,252 : 149,658 +1.83% / 162,712 = n/a = 160,118 158,897 : £160,805 :+ 0.16% :145.1% : M : : 236,939 : 455,159 : 151,853 +1.47% / 163,327 = n/a = 163,803 163,419 : £163,373 :+ 1.60% :145.0% : A : : 243,737 : 464,944 : = n/a = : = n/a = / 164,134 = n/a = 159,883 161,180 : £162,657 : - 0.44% :149.8% : M : : 243,759 : 469,314 : = n/a = : = n/a = / ====================================== mom:+0.00% : +0.94 % : -Est.DI : 149.5% / +0.49% = n/a = : -2.39% : -1.37% : -0.44%

I see money getting tighter and tighter. The UK is an island, but not really cutoff entirely from Europe's troubles

STRATEGIES - What I wrote back in 2004 (with some deletions): Here's my "expected" Hyperinflation Scenario : The US tries to reign-in inflation thru higher rates, its economy slows, and it finds it too painful. So the printing presses come on, and the US gets hyperinflation for 1-3 years. Followed by the inevitable severe recession. OR: ...goes its own path, neither high rates, nor printing too much money and winds up with stagflation. If we get these scenarios, then: Wise Americans would try to get their money offshore into more stable currencies. Those that cannot would do better to invest in gold shares, since gold prices would shoot up. I doubt that gold would be confiscated this time (Americans would put up too much fuss), but if it happened then physical silver (not confiscated before) might be a good thing to hold, and gold shares, of course. OR: If we get stagflation, stocks would do better than bonds, but both would fall. Property would be hit badly by high interest rates. Rising taxes (arent we seeing that?) would keep after tax incomes from rising much. The economy would look weak relative to the Far east, which might do well. Smart place to invest? Ah... Gold shares might do well ...too. Maybe Japanese equities, if demand begins to bounce back there (since Japan started its depression "early") ==== UPDATE in 2012: We certainly got much of this: + Gold and Gold shares have shot up (but gold outperfomed more than expected) + Shares prices crashed when the economy ran out of steam in 2008 + US property prices slid, as they did also in the UK outside of London No signs yet of Hyperinflation, will we experience another bout of deflation before that.

NOTES: Lessons of Weimar ====================== What we can learn from 20's Madness Wholesale Price Index : US$1.00 equals July 1914 :...... 1.0 : ..... 4.2 Mark Jan. 1919 :...... 2.6 : ..... 8.9 Mark July 1919 :...... 3.4 : .... 14.0 Mark Jan. 1920 :..... 12.6 : .... 64.8 Mark July 1920 :..... .... : .... 39.5 Mark Jan. 1921 :..... 14.4 : .... 64.9 Mark July 1921 :..... 14.3 : .... 76.7 Mark Jan. 1922 :..... 36.7 : ... 191.8 Mark July 1922 :.... 100.6 : ... 493.2 Mark Jan. 1923 :.. 2,785.0 : .. 17,972 Mark July 1923 : 194,000.0 : . 353,412 Mark Aug. 1923 :.......... : 4.6millionMark Sep. 1923 :.......... : 98.millionMark Oct. 1923 :.......... : 25.billionMark Nov. 1923 726 Billion. 4.2trillionMark ... Hyperinflation chart Source/ Right hand column figures: http://www.nrw2000.de/weimar/rentenmark.htm (in German) Impact of Hyper-Inflation : + People were paid by the hour and rushed to pass money to loved ones so that it could be spent before its value meant it was worthless. People had to shop with wheel barrows full of money. Restaurants did not print menus as by the time food arrive…the price had gone up !! + Bartering became common - exchanging something for something but not accepting money for it. Bartering had been common in Medieval times ! + Pensioners on fixed incomes suffered as pensions became worthless. + The poor became even poorer and the winter of 1923 meant that many lived in freezing conditions burning furniture to get some heat. + The very rich suffered least because they had sufficient contacts to get food etc. Most of the very rich were land owners and could produce food on their own estates. + The group that suffered a great deal - proportional to their income - was the middle class. Their hard earned savings disappeared overnight. They did not have the wealth or land to fall back on as the rich had. Many middle class families had to sell family heirlooms to survive. It is not surprising that many of those middle class who suffered in 1923, were to turn to Hitler and the Nazi Party.

SO WHAT ARE WE WORRIED ABOUT ? In Weimar Germany: "The mechanism of inflation was simple. The government issued paper promises to pay, and the Reichsbank issued money on the security of these promises. When a government spends more than its income, it must borrow. If it merely borrows money from its citizens by selling them bonds, there need be no inflation. Instead of that money being spent or invested by the citizen, it is borrowed and spent by the government, but the total amount of money is not increased." (link, as above) In the USA today: The US government is spending far more than it takes in in tax revenues, and borrowing the shortfall. In fact, the borrowing has been "blowing up the Fed's balance sheet", since the Fed has been buying a great deal the the Bonds issued by the government to cover its shortfall in recenues. Let's confront the Fears, and consider what happens in a period of Hyperinflation What happens to various Asset Classes EXCERPT (from the same link) Cash: Lost value rapidly ... the most disastrous investment. Bank Deposits: Nearly as worthless as cash. However, after the stabilization the government decreed partial reimbursement, and sums in the range of 15-30% of the original deposit value were repaid. Bonds, Mortgages: As usual in an inflation, bonds and mortgages fell in value even faster than cash. After the stabilization, some restitution was provided by law. Holders of government bonds were reimbursed to the extent of 2.5% of the original bond values. Mortgage holders also received some repayment, while a 1925 law provided for 15-25% reimbursement of corporate bondholders, though the payment was delayed for some years. Real Estate: Farmers and holders of urban property seemed to benefit if their property was mortgaged; the inflation soon wiped out the mortgage debt. However, they received no income, as noted above, since rents were frozen. After the stabilization, heavy new taxes and the urgent need for cash forced most holders to remortgage their property, often more heavily than originally, so that their gains were illusory. Still, those who held real estate throughout managed to save the capital thus invested. However, those who sold during the inflation (often through desperate need for cash) fared poorly. Because it brought no income, real estate sold at extremely low real price levels during inflation. Foreign Exchange: Those who held funds in dollars, pounds or other stable currencies, or in gold, saved their capital. The government set up rigid exchange controls as the inflation proceeded. As usual under such conditions, a black market flourished. The ones who fared best were the small minority who had the foresight to exchange marks into foreign money or gold very early, before new laws made this difficult and before the mark lost too much value. Personal Property: Capital was preserved by those who early changed it into objects of lasting value--rare coins, stamps, jewelry, works of art... Of course, most people did not understand the advantage of accumulating such property until the inflation was well along. By that time the prices of all goods had risen so much that they seemed outrageously bad bargains. In the event, however, cash proved an even worse bargain. Common Stocks: In an inflation, common stocks are generally considered a desirable hedge to protect against or even to profit from the rise in prices. In practice, it is not so simple. In this country stock prices have been known to fall violently just when inflation was most evident (1946, 1957, 1966, 1969). Market fluctuations--the rise of exciting new speculative stocks, waves of fear or greed--all make it much too easy to buy or to sell at the wrong time or to go into the wrong stocks. Getting down to specifics, we can say that those who bought a well-diversified list of stocks in solid, well-established companies quite early in the inflation and who held on throughout the period and also through the stabilization crisis saved much or all of their capital. However, there were many pitfalls along the wayside for the greedy, the fearful and the over-clever. Those who did best were investors with a certain unemotional, stolid character, a basic confidence that strong, well-managed companies would come through, and an immunity to excitement, anxiety and speculative temptations. /source: http://www.usagold.com/germannightmare.html

The Weimar Pattern - Is it repeating ? ===================================== We have be given loads of reasons why it MIGHT repeat... are there any signs yet ? BEFORE the hyperingflationary blowoff in Weimar Germany, there was a brief Deflationary dip (falling inflation, and a brief improvement in the Mark's exchange rate) : raw chart By February 1920 (an) inflationary episode had run its course. For the next fifteen months the price index held stable. The mark actually gained in value against foreign currencies, so that prices of imported goods fell by some 50%. Here was a golden opportunity to establish a stable currency. However, during these fifteen months the government kept issuing new money. The currency in circulation increased by 50% and the floating debt of the Reichsbank by 100%, providing fuel for a new outbreak. In May 1921, price inflation started again and by July 1922 prices had risen 700%. The Reichsbank continued printing new currency, although more slowly than the rate at which prices were rising. In fact, all through this period the issue of currency proceeded at a fairly smooth steady rate, while the price index moved up in great surges, interspersed by periods of stability. After July 1922 the phase of hyperinflation began... /source: http://www.usagold.com/germannightmare.html In the years 2010-12, we have seen some signs of inflation, and flight from the USD, but not in all indices. For instance, Agricultural prices (as represented by DBA) have remained relatively "tame" since 2008. GLD and DBA ... update I will be waiting and watching these measures, since many think that run-away Money Growth and a blowing up on the Fed's balance sheet will inevitably lead to high inflation, and hyperinflation. Broad money growth is less than some think, with a slowing trend in the US in recent months /source: http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/03/07/912541/monetary-blanks-in-the-eurozone/ Also by some measures in Europe, Broad money-growth has slowed: /source: http://www.efinancialnews.com/story/2012-05-02/chartoftheday-ltro-banks-lending-eurozone The Gold bugs, who benefitted so handsomely from QE1 and QE2, and suffering a bit, as they await QE3. The LTRO plan in Europe helped bring down bond yields, and also helped stock prices, but now that the money has been invested, the positive impact on stock markets is fading. This thread will investigate other changes during Weimar times, and compare them with current price levels and policy decisions. As I start this thread, I cannot help but think that the current period, charcterised by a rising dollar, and a pullback in Gold prices, bond yields, and inflation indices, provides an excellent "hedging window", for those concerned about rising inflation and a falling dollar in the future.

Beautiful, blue, CLEAN AIR, of the sort we almsot never see in Hong Kong

(this is an old topic, inflamed again by a recent news article): What does the word "their" mean ?? ========================================= People Are 'hanging On By The Skin Of Their Teeth' 100,000 people could lose their homes. As the Eurozone crisis deepens more than 100,000 people could lose their homes if mortgage repayments rise by just £20 a month - a leading charity has revealed today. The Bank of England has warned that as UK lenders are hit by higher borrowing costs families should prepare to pay more as the increase is passed down to consumers. This could lead to thousands losing their homes if the hike results in mortgage rises of £20 a month because people are already struggling with overdue bills and cards. Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2146256/Just-20-month-mortgage-force-100-000-hard-pressed-families-homes-charity-warns.html#ixzz1vE7IGmvc Let's be clear on this: "They" never truly owned "their" homes, if they borrowed more debt than they could afford to service. "They" merely bought into a fantasy that a home could be owned for good when interest rates were are ultra-low levels. Of course, the banks and the media participated in this fanatasy, but thinking people should never have fallen for this nonsense, then or now. Put a fork into thsi nonsense !

Okay. This subject has been discussed on DrBubb's Diary, and elsewhere: If enough credit gets destroyed, and people sell their Gold to cover margin calls, then Gold could fall furher. But perhaps the long slide "clean up" sufficient Gold-related margin debt that we will not see that. If people are getting their money out of Euros in Greece and Spain, they just might turn to both the Dollar and Gold. Then the infant Gold rally would feed on itself. MONEY FLOWS There are also some charts that relate to Gold versus SPY moves on the Money Flows thread: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=16443

Two big signs of the Upwards Reversal + The turn came at a Key support level: A Classic Double bottom + The Volume surged upwards (see above) as prices turned up. It seems that people who have been waiting to Buy, decided prices were low enough

This is what a move off an important bottom looks like

I think it all will fade away Meantime, the Chippies must be hoping for this http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=juEeau5nHVU I'm a-gonna tell you how it's gonna be you're gonna give your money to me I wanna hammer night and day you know my work a-not fade away a-well, you know my work a-not fade away My bill's bigger than a mer-say-DEES !

He doesn't say that exactly with those words. But clearly, the "aggressive" buying he is talking about happened at a time of falling prices. So who is selling even more than the CB's to drive the price lower ??

What Horsepucky! CB's Buying Gold aggressively, and forcing the price... Down ?? (wtf?) Central Banks Aggressively Buying Gold, Commodity Report by Top Financial Newsletter Profit Confidential PRWeb - May 15, 2012 In March 2012 alone, 57.9 tons of gold bullion were purchased by world central banks, according to a report by Michael Lombardi, lead contributor to Profit Confidential, and he believes more buying should be expected on any pullbacks. New York, NY (PRWEB) May 15, 2012 In March 2012 alone, 57.9 tons of gold bullion were purchased by world central banks, according to a report by Michael Lombardi, lead contributor to Profit Confidential, and he believes more buying should be expected on any pullbacks. “To give some perspective on this number, in 2011, central banks bought just under 440 tons of gold bullion, a rate of 37 tons a month,” says Lombardi. In the recent Profit Confidential article, Half of World Gold Production Being Bought by Central Banks, Lombardi believes the central banks took advantage of the lower prices in gold bullion to buy significant amounts of the metal. /more: http://www.chron.com/business/press-releases/article/Central-Banks-Aggressively-Buying-Gold-Commodity-3558539.php Has this guy never heard of Supply and Demand ?

See any Greeks... Spaniards, Portugese ?

Last Year's Gold Top was not a "real" parabola - says Adam Hamilton When gold bears try to advance their thesis that gold’s latest secular bull climaxed last August, they often trot out a long-term gold chart. But it is not inflation-adjusted, merely the nominal red line shown in this chart. And in nominal terms, gold’s latest bull indeed utterly dwarfs the 1970s one. Even though this nominal comparison is a useless apples-to-oranges exercise, it can certainly seem convincing. But in real inflation-adjusted terms, even when using a pathetic understated political index like the CPI, a radically different picture emerges. On the pure size front, the 1970s bull utterly dwarfs our latest one. In real terms gold rocketed 1082% higher between January 1970 and January 1980. In the misleading nominal terms gold bulls love to cite, this was a staggering 2332% gain! But our current bull isn’t even half this size yet. In real terms it was only up 478% between April 2001 and August 2011, which was merely 640% in nominal terms. The main reason our latest bull is less than half the size of its predecessor is there has been no popular speculative mania yet. While gold’s excellent secular-bull gains have gradually won over investors, they’ve yet to become enamored with it. Nor has the general public that fueled the NASDAQ’s parabolic secular-bull climax in early 2000. Gold simply hasn’t become a universal market darling yet. . . . Without the necessary psychological conclusion parabolic blowoffs cap secular bulls with, sentiment will generally remain bullish. After any normal topping that isn’t driven by an extreme popular speculative mania, plenty of buyers rush in to reestablish positions when they think the correction has run its course. Secular bull markets really can’t climax without the extreme psychological whipsawing of the parabolic blowoff and subsequent collapse. It shatters bull psychology. The bottom line is gold’s latest secular bull almost certainly didn’t climax last summer. Such major bulls need an extreme psychological event to end them. And it comes in the form of a popular speculative mania and vertical parabolic ascent. While gold was indeed overbought last August, the resulting topping looked absolutely nothing like the previous gold-bull climax of several decades ago. And if gold’s bull isn’t over, then gold is destined to power to new all-time highs sooner or later /more: http://www.kitco.com/ind/Hamilton/20120511.html

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qECFM8ZLlcI It gets interesting about 1 hour in: + A dead city, with a Horse in the center was seen in 6,000 BC or so Coming Timeline: Prredictions hard, as time lines change + The troubled times (of Solar Flares, etc) are Jumping ahead in time + At first "our reality ended" in 2012, then 2018, then 2020, now later (2023?) + 2012-13 "we may already be seeing some... Solar flares, Sun CME" + We could find that our technology gets wiped out from this + Only about 1 million of us "survive the Event horizon" == == + Our DNA has been manipulated, 23rd was connected to 24th chromosome + John Ford UFO case: "he's no more loony than you and I" + CERN : trying to generate a black hole, and control it + Invasion of Earth "in the future" (I shouldnt go into that?) == == Question: I heard you (Preston) are a clone? Are you clone? PN : "I don't know." Later: PN : "Cloning is and old art." == == About Timelines + I have seen two possible futures: + A positive one (from the WingMakers), and a despotic one (Ardanian order), OTHER + Reptilian Alien seen by PD: greatdreams.com / reptilian / kesara http://www.greatdreams.com/reptlan/reptile.jpg + "Europe is going to be part of the financial crash on the horizon" (this year?) + An EMP (from the sun) may disturb that atmosphere === === Note - What is Kerry's real name? Some people think she has a different name... kerry cassidy, is julie mitchell. * /source: /decoderchick99 June 7? / / Stale Video / * (there is a resemblence, but I think this is misinformation) === === Website :: http://projectcamelotportal.com/

These CHARTS show how the UK Bounceback is an anomoly

Surprised? Buyers should also take account of the income their deposits would deliver if invested rather than being tied into a property. On the basis of the same example that would swing the balance in favour of renting, with home ownership costing £1,300 more than renting over the course of a year. Actually, there are many inaccurate ways to do the calculation, But FINANCIAL REPRESSION has improved the argument for buying. If financial repression ends for any reason, then the Buyer is Trapped. The "you get stuck" possibility is something few consider