drbubb

I am not trying to convert anyone. If anything the purists are trying to convert me, or at least to shut me up. I will not allow anyone to turn GEI into a cult website. And, so long as our B&H-friendly members do not behave as a cult, they are safe here, and I am happy to have them.

That could be true, and would make perfect sense. I don't think a UK tax residence would stop me from trading. It is also an effective means of controlling price risk. But I might trade less in that environment.

We always lost people - that's in the nature of chatboards - Natural attrition : people move on after a while. The problem is, the MANUAL sign-up makes it more difficult to replace those who are departing. I could allow self-sign in, like most sites have. But last time we had that, we were overwhelmed by spamsters and the moderators nearly revolved, so I had to turn it off. So I had to apply the manual sign in. I personally sign in every new member, after I receive an email. The need to send the email puts people off from joining. The result is, we have a healthy number of hits, and many lurkers, but a gradual decline in active posters. The unfortunate side effect has been a shrinking number of interesting new threads are started. Giving in to the Gold cult, and allowing them to completely dominate the website, will not change this trend. It might even accelerate the attrition. Thank goodness, a number of the new people that I have signed in are becoming valued posters here, and that is keeping the site alive and healthy. "Buy and Hold bulls" - who I sometimes call "Gold Purists" are certainly welcome, and so are Gold bears, and Gold traders. Anyone is, so long as they respect other posters, and resist abuse and other destructive close-minded behavior.

First, I would familiarise myself with the Tax policies.

Pixel, A 2.74% fee can only be described as Massive. I pay $8 at Fidelity, and maybe 0.25-0.50% at my other broker. So GM's fee is many times that. When was the last time we saw a 2.74% move in one day? It is pretty rare, maybe 2-3 times a year, if that. I cannot imagine paying such big commissions in my normal trading. In fact, sometimes the whole options premium I pay is less than 2.74% of the underlying contract. Very often, in fact.

You are ignoring the massive spread that GM takes on buying and selling gold. I suppose if you hold for at least a year or two, it is bearable. But you cannot effectively trade on the spreads the GM charges, less your timing is very good. I have traded once or two at GM, but now I mostly just hold Gold and Silver there. I am not saying that GLD cannot come unstuck. That is possible. I mostly use GLD options, since they are very liquid, and spreads are low. When I want a Gold etf to hold, I use the HK-stored Gold etf: HK:3081 (i think it is), or PHYS, or a new one: MNT.t. I don;t anyone is expecting any of those to blow up. However, "Anything can happen", I suppose. For me, I do not want physical metal in my small flat, and we have only a limited amount of space in our Safety deposit box at the bank. GM is something I use, but where trading is a possibility, I prefer the "safer" etfs backed up by real physical gold stored outside the USA.

haha. I set you up there. I knew you would come back with that. Buying Gold futures can be a first step to obtaining physicals, since all you need to do is take delivery. Why do so few people do it- ie take delivery? They don't want to face the risk of holding physicals and needing to store it. One thing I can guarantee to you is this: From 5 years ago to today, people have done better holding GLD than physicals, for two reasons: + They have had to bear less storage cost, at least for the average large gold holder, and + They have not had any Gold stolen, or lost. We don't hear much about it, but there are many anecdotes of people who have been robbed of their gold, and put into physical danger for having gold on their premises. That type of risk mat well INCREASE in an uncertain future, and I certainly would not want my neighbors to think I was holding physical gold, especially if I was living in a small village.

LOL. "Not one leader". Okay, but watch what happens when I make a negative comment on the Gold thread about Sinclair, or GATA. Immediately, followers jump to his defense, instead of considering my arguments. Your cult has Leader(s) rather than a single one, but the effect is the same. They cannot be criticised, and are accountable to no one. "Rational thought is accepted". No it is not. My comments above are 100% rational, your are bordering on fantasy and hysteria: EXAMPLES from above 1/ 2/ 3/ (more examples could be found if I went back further) "Members can interact with others" / "... we are not elitists" Not at all? If someone happens to own "fiat" currencies, they are treated like leppers, and called "Paper Bugs." Much as anyone who owns property is abused on HPC. You just called me "a banker" as a term of derision, and called my selfish (while everything I do on the site is the reverse, sharing my hard-earned research for free and supporting a website that recently lost its Google ads because someone posted "copywrited material" (and it wasn't me.) "No Secrecy." I haven't see much of this, but there is certain jargon that Gold "purists" prefer, and that is off-putting to those who are not regulars "Not preoccupied with bringing in new members." You are rather loose with the facts here! How many times have you come here recruiting new members for 24K? I am afraid your argument against behaving like a cult are pretty weak, when examined

Goldfinger wants to ridicule "paper bugs", who rely on fiat currencies But he does not see how deep and widespread the real vulnerabilities are. It is not only CURRENCY that will be devalued, It is cars, suburban houses, and almost everything that we use day-to-day in our heavily oil-dependent economy. So much of this stuff may become useless when currency collapses, and our current wasteful way of living is over. Those in the wring place may use or lose all their gold just to survive. If instead, you live in a different way, and in a different place you may suffer much less disruption, and Gold will be less essential for survival. === === I suggest you look at this: A Letter from the Future - Richard Heinberg: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=15921

Don't be so blind, Pixel. Look in the mirror ! I don't abuse anyone for owning or holding Gold. I own gold, and encourage others to do the same. I help them to get in at the right time, and do not try to dupe people into buying randomly, or worse yet, buying at the top when the fears of being left behind are most intense. The Gold cultists are the one who pile abuse on those who do not follow their example : they are the ones who "pour scourn and insults" on those who disagree, and follow the steps outlined in the Screwtape article. The writer of that article was the one who called them a cult. (But "if the shoe fits, wear it!") I happen to agree that their behaviour fits that description (does your?). Do you really disagree with the Screwtape argument? If not, then Why should you care whether I own physical gold or not?

Okay. I don't get it right all the time. And saying "be careful" (and keeping some of my longs) is very, very different than telling people to "GO SHORT!" - which I never did. Also, you are not being fair to me, since I later identified buying window which was only a few dollars higher than where I said "be careful." You also fail to mention the many times since then that I declared "Buying Windows" on exact lows, or within a few dollars of the low. Do you know anyone who has called the market better? Many Gurus that you respect say repeatedly: "You cannot beat buy and hold." I proved over many months that it was possible to do so, and I beat B&H by about 50%. Please tell me: Where can I go to find better market calls on precious metals? I am very happy to learn from others, whether or not they post here. So this is a genuine request to know where someone can find good trading ideas on PM's. "Do you actually own any physical metal or is all your ownership wrapped up in some ETF?" I have already made millions being long PM stocks: the "Gold stock trade" from the year 2000 was the main thing that allowed me to achieve financial independence and escape the work-a-day life. So I have nothing to prove. Why should you are anyone else care if I own physical metal? In fact, Gold etfs have so far been just as good as gold. And GLD has been LESS RISKY than owning Gold futures (thru a firm like MFG.)

?? I have no problem whatsoever with people who want to hold Gold. (Are you reading my posts, or just REACTING to what you think I wrote?) I own gold, and in early Jan when the price was near $1,550, encouraged those who wanted to add to their holdings, to buy at the "low" price then. I listen to and respond to criticism all the time. That other thread is full of many threads disagreeing with me. I generally respond positively and politely, even to some occasional hostile postings. BTW, Have you read the DEFINITION OF A CULT from the other site? Here are the first two points: Key Characteristics of a Cult (adapted from the research of Janja Lalich and Michael Langone and of Marcia Rudin) 1. The group displays excessively zealous and unquestioning commitment to its leader and regards his belief system, ideology, and practices as the Truth, as law. The leader is not accountable to anyone. 2. Rational thought, questioning and dissent are discouraged or forbidden. /source: http://screwtapefiles.blogspot.com/2012/02/how-pm-blogosphere-behaves-like-cult.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+ScrewtapeFiles+%28Screwtape+files%29 === === No one here sees me as a leader to a Gold cult. (And I certainly would not encourage that, though I do think people can benefit sometimes from the trading ideas I post on DrBubb's Diary and elsewhere here.) But many here do see Jim Sinclair as a Cult leader. The gold cultists never question him. And I get an earful ("an eyeful"? in posts) when I dare to question him, or GATA, or any of the other Buy-and-Hold gurus. I think that my postings, and those of others like RH, are sensible and rational, but they are not treated that way by the Gold Purists. The Purists got very upset merely by the PRESENCE of a "Beating Buy and Hold" thread on the Main board. Rather than attracting those who wanted to learn from what I was doing, the thread proved to be a magnet for those who wanted to rubbish the idea of my daring to trade Precious metals. Eventually, I gave up, and moved the thread elsewhere. I also stopped updating it every week. Over 6-9 months, I believe I proved someone with a technical system could beat buy and hold by spotting trading windows, even when I stuck to a strong Long bias. There simply wasn't enough constructive posting on the thread, so I decided "why bother with this?" and stopped wasting my time keeping it up to date. If that wasn't responding to the demonstrated wishes of GEI posters, what do I need to do ?

There's nothing wrong with being aware of the dangers of a fiat currency - which is what that post speaks to. But not all are like that. There are some stronger currencies (of which Gold could be one). And even the US dollar has been worth owning at times, just not all the time. And neither the US dollar, nor Sterling, look like safe places to park wealth for the long term, for all the familiar reasons. Let's be honest about this: The Gold cultists are not thinking of Gold as a "safe place to store wealth." Most want and expect their gold holdings to GAIN in spending value over time. You can see this in the brief discussion that I had with Romans Holiday and others just above (posts#28,502 - 28,514.) He is not content that Gold holds its own against the CRB index, and against Home prices etc. He wants to see Gold go on rising against those other measures of wealth. He wants to see gold valued as a currency (where the sky is the limit), rather than against other commodities. I suppose that is why the Gold and Silver cultists get upset when people talk about selling their holdings after run-ups. They feel like the "gold movement" is therefore losing troops. They do not like to see people sell and value gold as a normal coomodity, since that undermines the fantasy that God can constantly go on increasing in value, because it is "the ultimate currency" and maybe therefore has some magical properties. Unfortunately, I am too old to think that way. I have seen too many ups and down, including ups and downs in Gold prices. Shame on JS and JD (Dines). They are old enough to be able to speak sense on Gold, but have somehow been recruited into the Gold cult as leaders of this upcycle. Indeed, they also played that role in the last cycle, and did get out not too many miles from the top. Have they bought into thr dream too much this time, to achieve that feat a second time? Time will tell. They are certain "Pumpers", and only future history will show if they time their "Dump" properly and get themseleves and their supporters out before Gold begins the next major slide in value. A drop of almost 50% in Silver prices (without them calling a top near $50, as I and others did), suggest there is a real possibility that they will miss the top. Perhaps they have missed it already.

Now you are being ridiculous ! - I am far from anti-Gold. I am long it, and have been long for a long, long time. But I simply do not think everyday is a "Buy Window." Nor do I abuse people who think it is smart to take some profits (on some or all) of their gold holding from time-to-time. I understand that some people may not want to TRADE gold, but holding some and trading some makes perfect sense to me. If you really are comfortable owning gold, why should you need to surround yourself with a mindless Jimmy-One-Note support group. Just own it, as I do, and help others to spot the good buying and selling windows for those who are willing to trade a part of their portfolio, or simply want to add to their holdings in a good buying window. "Gold is not like owning google shares or barclays shares. Owning gold can be a way of rejecting the system. Its removing your wealth from the banks." There are plenty of ways of "removing your wealth from the Big bank system." One is to put your cash into smaller local banks, away from the Too-Big-To-Fails. Another would be to buy Land or even properties you can rent, to earn income. You might also invest in shares, what's wrong with that? If you think Wall Street profits too much, you can invest in private Ventures run by friends or family. I have to laugh, since you sound like a paid-up-member of the Gold-Only Cult, and you do not even realise it. What a great job of brainwashing the Gold-owning Illuminati (like JS) have done on you.

Gold can get overvalued as a commodity, and it can also get overvalued as a currency. We should look at it both ways - maybe there will be times where's it usefulness as a currency allows it to stay overvalued as a commodity for a long time, but I may not welcome that day... as much as some of the Buy-and-hold Gold bulls may. What will I thne use as a store of value? BTW, I don't want GEI to join the Gold cult, or any other cult. I do not want to see GEI readers duped by anyone: Neither the Gold cult, nor the Facebook cult, as this posting will show: /source: Facebook thread

??? "failing to think of gold as a currency" Not at all. I swap back in forth from HK$ to C$ (just as I swap back in forth from Gold/GLD.) I usually get it right, bit not always. I also use GBP and A$, to a lesser extent as "stores of value" from time to time. Do you sit on one currency all the time? If so, which one? Remember: Gold generates no interest income. In fact, it costs money to store it. I WANT GEI people to use Gold as a Tool, not behave like a "Gold holders support group." Here's what that Screwtape letter said about some Gold holders acting like a cult: "I always felt like there was a dark side. And I'm not talking about Blythe and JPM here. I was kicked off numerous blogs for asking reasonable questions. The venom I received in April 2011 for pointing out the silver RSI had prompted me to sell my stash (and advising others to do the same) was remarkable. I switched from participant to observer, and started to pay closer attention. Every psychological tool in the book was being employed: confirmation bias, creation and deployment of memes, use of single sources to imply many sources, aggressive trampling of contrary opinions, herd mentality, isolation of 'us' from 'them'. The works." We have had that sort of nonsense on GEI too. I fought it, and so did some others here. Do you really want GEI to be part of a cult?

"banned to a lesser extent" on GEI ??? What are you talking about ? Right on the Low (at $1550?) the beginning of the Year, I started a thread entitled: Gold Charts look Bullish as we start 2012 Before that, I had encouraged people to be cautious on Gold after it parabolic move up to over $1800-1900. ENCOURAGING PEOPLE away from expensive Gold and towards buying cheap Gold is the EXACT OPPOSITE of a ban. That's intelligent monitoring of the valuation, which should greatly help those who want to be long gold, and use it to store their wealth effectively. Suggesting that Gold is always a good buy, could waste people's wealth in the long run (if they get sucked in at high prices, and get frightened out at low prices.)

Do you think? Perhaps not if he monitors Gold versus "things", not just Gold versus Dollars (or Sterling.) By looking at Gold relative to a number a measures, he can better spot times of overvaluation, and also find "buying windows". Reposted from the "GEI Posting topics" thread: Exactly right. Gold-in-things looks expensive. So will it really be a "good store of wealth" from $1730? Maybe not. Not unless people flood into Gold from things. That's why I like to look at Gold relative to CRB (for example) when seeking buying windows:

Useful? Yes. But a bit dangerous too. Sometimes the cult behaves a bit like the sheep in this video: Almost anyone or anything can "herd" them at times, and people may even listen to those who say silly things like; "Never ever ever sell your Gold."

Yeah. I saw the first one just before I went to bed last night. And then found the Daily Mail connection the next morning. I was hoping there might be some further news overnight. But, hey, I am seeking the truth on this, and have no desire to mislead anyone. Since many others have now been sensitised to the Supply-of-Gold issue, then maybe many others can help me get to the truth on this matter.

Give me a break. I posted the first story, when I found it - It turned out to be misleading- that's not my writing- In fact, I said it might be a spoof. Later, I found the original Daily Mail article, and pointed out it was a CAPTION COMPETITION./ There is and was no intention to mislead on my part. In fact I tracked the story to the end before anyone else here. This story's backgrouynd does not change my belief (based on a variety of evidence), that there is far more Gold supply than the Big Gold rampers are telling you. I will continue to monitor that story as it emerges. And I will bat away the false evidence if/when I find it so.

Good to hear it. I have a piece of a Property Fund that owns flats in Berlin - near the new airport

Ah-ha, here's the Daily Mail source: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2096031/Caption-competition-Thankfully-Bank-Englands-chocolate-bar-stash-depleted.html?ito=feeds-newsxml A Caption competition (??) Comments from there: ======== So,that's where they store the bankers bonus... - Bill, Doncaster, 03/2/2012 23:34 All is not lost. No thanks to idiot Gordon Brown, a lot of it is missing though see the spaces! - Job Swerth , Southall Middlesex, 03/2/2012 22:03 There'd be a lot more there if Scotsman Gordon 'Incapability' Brown hadn't flogged so much at the bottom of the market. - Alfred Wyrd, England, 03/2/2012 21:56 Chocolate bars? This is our country;s wealth! Those short pliles and huge gaps are caused by Gordon the moron. He sold us short, twit. - Job Swerth , Southall Middlesex, 03/2/2012 21:55 OOOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG, posting this figure will destroy the Labour Party as they thought they had spent it all! - Armed Forces Member., Bannockburn, 03/2/2012 21:35

I was waiting to see if this story would come out from any other source. I haven't seen it... as of Sunday morning HK time Does it matter who owns it? If such a vast amount of gold has truly been found, it would confirm that the estimates of "how much gold exists in the world" are way too low, and that me impact upon the price.

This could... Please tell me it is a spoof Stash of £156BILLION in gold bars found stored in former WWII canteen under London ...We've still got a few quid then! ... "but sadly not all of it belongs to us." Could this be the gold recovered in Nazi Germany by Eisenhower's invading army? If so, this gold was claimed to have been returned under the post-WWII Marshall Plan to the original European countries from whom it was looted by the Nazis. See:Did Eisenhower Loot the Nazi Gold & Treasures for his Bankster Handlers? By Emma Reynolds Last updated at 8:55 AM on 3rd February 2012 Cash-strapped British people will breathe a sigh of relief when they see these impressive treasure troves. Despite the financial crisis, it seems the country still has some money left in the Bank of England's vault beneath London. In fact, there are stacks of gold bars worth a whopping £156billion stored in an old canteen deep below the streets of the capital. Treasure trove: The Bank of England's vault under central London contains 4,600 tons of the precious metal, worth an incredible £156billion Rich pickings: The rows of simple shelves are stacked high with 28lb 24-carat gold bars It seems Gordon Brown did not manage to completely strip the country of its assets when he sold off 400 tons of gold at rock-bottom price during his time as Chancellor. The gold he got rid of when prices were at a 20-year low cost the country up to £11bn, it was estimated last April. He made just £2.3billion on the precious metal he sold between 1999 and 2002. Read more: http://chasvoice.blogspot.com/2012/02/stash-of-156billion-in-gold-bars-stored.html#ixzz1lQy6C9pp