drbubb

Or you do very well, if you are on the right side of them, or use them to create and trigger buying windows.

Yes. That is what the Gold bulls are hoping for and praying for... They want to see Gold's value be uplifted by its usage as a monetary marker. Like the US Dollar or the Euro, Gold can float at a level way beyond its intrinsic value, or its inflation-adjusted value. But for that to happen, Gold has to be a preferred "store of wealth" which is preferred ahead of Ag Commodities, Energy, or Houses. It has happened for brief periods, but can it be sustained?

THREE WAY INTERVIEW I have just done a three way interview with the "celebrity Financial Adviser" Jonathan Davis and Dominic Frisby. I believe it should be available later today on: http://FrisbysBullsAndBears.com

TELLING THE NAKED TRUTH about Gold prices... from the Corn thread: Certainly, Gold prices have run ahead of Agricultural commodity prices DBA / PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (ETF) vs. GLD ... update : 5year 5 years Ratio: GLD to DBA You don't have to be a genius to spot the potential top here. (Yet I wonder: Where are the comments from the Gold purist gurus?) Gold did much better than just "retaining its purchasing power". in relation to Agricultural commodities. What can we realistically expect from Gold as an inflation hedge against rising food prices? Isn't a 160% outperformance (relative to Ag commodities) big enough to start wondering if the relative price rise is done - at least for the time being. Having asked this, I know there are those out there who think that Gold will go on beating inflation, because it will benefit from "seigneurage" which would come from using gold as a currency. Many gold purists would like to keep the supply of gold tight, and convince a large number of people that gold is the only suitable currency. This way, they might "pin gold to the ceiling" by backing currencies with Gold at a time when the price is high. If the Gold price is fixed, then the purists holding gold, could then offload and take their profits. The main beneficiaries may not be small private investors, but rather shadowy institutions (like the Vatican bank and others) that have hoarded gold for years. Gold has an important role in preserving wealth IMHO. I own it now, and have owned it for years... and I buy on dips and sell some when I think it is overvalued. But we must not treat gold owning as a religion and/or build cults around gold hoarding.

My post was a response to this one: "Crikey. Can't think why postings are drying up on this site." If by criticising JS and promoting independent thing amongst GEI, postings "dry up", do you agree or disagree with me, that such a dynamic is healthy, if those who do post have ideas of their own, rather than merely acting as parrots of Sinclair? There are any number of sites out there where you can find people who simply want to repeat the mantra from Sinclair and GATA, are they really interestiing? Do they really help you think more clearly about preserving wealth and what is really going on in the economy? GEI's posters do not get it right all the time, but we do look beyond the mainstream, and that includes looking beyond the ideas of the Gold purist mainstream as well. That may be a smaller audience to begin with, but as these fresh ideas, or at least some of them, prove out - then the interest in GEI will grow.

??? "tHEY" SOLD Gld IN HUGE VOLUMES TODAY JUST TO "CREATE THE IMPRESSION" THAT gOLD PRICES MIGHT FALL FURTHER?? tHAT MAKES NO SENSE ??? Wake up, and perform the Gold Ramper test: when I see a bird that walks like a ramper and swims like a ramper and quacks like a ramper, I call that bird a ramper."

GLD closed on/near key support that I identified earlier today. But I think it would be very dangerous to buy immediately after such a big drop powered by heavy volume. I strong recommend you look at the chart yourself, and not rely on Turds or Pipers

If all those worshiping Gold-rampers were to disappear, this site would only get better, since that may leave independent thinkers with their own informed opinions Today;s drop should be seen as a wake-up call, not something to shake off lightly.

The Volume says: IMPORTANT GLD : 164.286 -9.204 Open: 173.19 / High: 173.59 / Low: 164.00 Volume: 43,946,474 !! Percent Change: -5.31%

This sort of comment amazes me. I proved over many months that I could beat Buy & Hold in the Silver market, and then I started a thread at the beginning of the Year with Gold at/near $1550, saying it was a good buying point. "Gold Charts look Bullish as we start 2012" Meantime, JS is telling people that Silver is about to shoot up to $60, just before it drops maybe $2 in a day and begins a new correction? Do you love BS, or are you just pretending? You guys need to wake up and see what junk food you are feeding on. Why do you consume it? Is it an addiction of some sort?

?? "Please keep in mind that this is not a dress rehearsal but rather the real thing. There is no practical means to handle the problems at hand. We are at the dead end of the road the can has been kicked down. Volatility in gold is going to go wild so just keep your head down and hold your insurance close to your chest." If that's Not Ramping, then I am Bill Murphy! There's nothing clear-headed and thoughtful in what JS, just bullish nonsense. Look at my chart- it suggested a possible important resistance level for Gold: Do you see that in the writing of JS? You have to stand on your head to see a $60 drop in what he said. What a BS artist is Mr JS ! Why can you not see the ramping nonsense clearly for what it is?

GLD : $166.52 Change: -6.50 Percent Change:-3.76% Volume: 20,550,090 so far, versus average of maybe 12 million shares I need to check the latest from "the Piper", Mr.Gold 1) "2012 is the year the dollar falls as a result of a significant drop in dollar contract and settlement utilization. Imagine the demand for gold as the dollar closes below the antiquated measure of .7200 on the redundant USDX. When this occurs you will be looking back at $2111 from higher levels. Please keep in mind that this is not a dress rehearsal but rather the real thing. There is no practical means to handle the problems at hand. We are at the dead end of the road the can has been kicked down. Volatility in gold is going to go wild so just keep your head down and hold your insurance close to your chest." 2) "Silver is a game, but one hell of a game. Another try by silver at $50 looks imminent." - JS WTF? How about a $62 drop in Gold instead? Tell me again, someone. Why do people take this ramping so seriously?

It is sad, isn't it? Neither the people of Iran, nor the people of the West want to see a war. The leaders see some benefit, and I think it is nothing more than a desire for more power. Can we break the grip of this corruption? I do hope so. Perhaps we are getting "help from upstairs" in avoiding war, as John Kettler says we are

Week : CCLI : CMMI : RobinPl: Tregun : Dynast: Clovell / IslHarb : ParkA : Waterf : Sorrent : TArch : C'ribC : TaikSh. 08/12: 106.85 104.85: 14,311 : 19,126 : 22,483 : 18,563 // 9,638 : 10,815 : 12,324 : 16,031 : 22,582 : 5,412 : 10,292 08/05: 105.78 103.33: 14,313 : 19,128 : 22,486 : 18,565 // 9,659 : 10,988 : 12,822 : 16,052 : 22,612 : 5,162 : 10,208 07/29: 106.54 103.71: 14,375 : 19,212 : 22,584 : 18,646 // 9,663 : 11,145 : 12,879 : 16,123 : 20,313 : 5,345 : 10,689 07/22: 104.93 101.99: 14,275 : 19,978 : 22,426 : 18,516 // 9,362 : 11,096 : 12,831 : 16,063 : 20,124 : 5,123 : 10,211 07/15: 104.25 101.41: 12,156 : 19,067 : 22,414 : 18,506 // 9,247 : 10,960 : 12,759 : 15,974 : 20,011 : 5,114 : 10,061 07/08: 105.01 102.33: 12,511 : 19,078 : 22,427 : 18,516 // 9,262 : 10,978 : 12,772 : 15,990 : 20,031 : 5,031 : 10,759 07/01: 105.46 103.13: 12,586 : 19,193 : 22,562 : 18,628 // 9,300 : 10,976 : 12,762 : 15,491 : 20,569 : 5,179 : 10,518 06/24: 104.60 102.33: 12,489 : 19,045 : 22,387 : 18,484 // 9,241 : 10,906 : 12,712 : 15,430 : 20,487 : 5,185 : 10,546 06/17: 104.14 102.01: 12,435 : 18,963 : 22,291 : 18,404 // 9,232 : 10,896 : 12,686 : 15,399 : 18,599 : 5,110 : 10,530 06/10: 103.82 101.35: 12,457 : 18,997 : 22,330 : 18,437 // 9,225 : 10,589 : 12,699 : 15,415 : 18,618 : 5,070 : 10,185 06/03: 104.01 101.85: 12,455 : 18,993 : 22,326 : 18,433 // 9,252 : 10,620 : 12,686 : 15,398 : 18,598 : 5,205 : 11,093 05/27: 104.00 101.72: 13,777 : 19,733 : 22,334 : 18,440 // 9,643 : 10,710 : 12,740 : 15,465 : 18,678 : 5,253 : 10,659 05/20: 103.94 101.89: 13,697 : 18,052 : 22,306 : 18,416: 10,004 : 10,404 : 12,716 : 15,435 : 18,642 : 5,137 : 10,877 05/13: 103.35 101.46: 13,698 : 17,972 : 22,206 : 18,334 // 9,798 : 10,367 : 12,401 : 15,314 : 17,941 : 5,083 : 10,186 05/06: 102.89 101.40: 13,588 : 17,828 : 22,028 : 18,187 // 9,967 : 10,532 : 12,295 : 14,219 : 17,491 : 5,013 : 10,719 04/29: 101.12: 98.90 : 13,579 : 17,815 : 22,012 : 17,031 // 9,841 : $9,904 : 11,634 : 14,648 : 17,423 : 5,054 : : 9,922 04/22: 102.17 100.05: 13.644 : 17.901 : 22,118 : 17,113 // 9,793 : 10,022 : 11,636 : 14,651 : 17,426 : 5,221 : 10,663 04/15: 102.50 100.71: 13,610 : 17,856 : 22,064 : 17,856 // 9,390 : 10,442 : 11,661 : 14,682 : 17,463 : 5,017 : 10,886 04/08: 101.79: 99.76 : 13,800 : 17,866 : 22,075 : 17,080 // 9,493 : 10,477 : 11,668 : 15,102 : 17,473 : 4,865 : 10,581 04/01: 101.17: 99.15 : 13,795 : 17,860 : 22,067 : 17,074 // 9,550 : 10,401 : 11,641 : 14,441 : 18,548 : 4,871 : 10.384 03/25: 100.06: 97.97 : 13,723 : 17,766 : 21,952 : 16,985 // 9,296 : 10,105 : 11,346 : 13,907 : 18,359 : 4,926 : 10,373 03/18 : 99.17 : 96.75 : 12,738 : 17,747 : 21,928 : 16,966 // 9,230 : 10,160 : 11,380 : 13,949 : 18,414 : 4,766 : : 9,850 03/11 : 98.41 : 95.72 : 12,691 : 17,682 : 21,848 : 16,904 // 9,165 : 10,089 : 11,358 : 15,071 : 19,152 : 4,736 : : 9,615 03/04 : 96.69 : 94.28 : 11,591 : 17,531 : 21,662 : 16,760 // 9,029 : $9,937 : 11,244 : 14,269 : 18,960 : 4,751 : : 9,728 02/26 : 95.15 : 93.14 : 11,515 : 17,416 : 21,520 : 16,650 // 8,449 : $9,638 : 11,145 : 13,031 : 21,504 : 4,808 : : 9,702 02/19 : 94.38 : 92.10 : 11,515 : 17,416 : 21,520 : 16,650 // 8,580 : $9,784 : 11,160 : 13,048 : 20,058 : 4,770 : : 9,499 02/12 : 95.01 : 92.68 : 13,132 : 17,364 : 21,455 : 16,600 // 8,659 : $9,874 : 11,210 : 13,107 : 20,148 : 4,768 : 10,038 02/05 : 95.04 : 92,63 : 13,988 : 17,384 : 21,481 : 16,620 // 8,576 : $9,779 : 11,185 : 13,078 : 20,103 : 4,790 : : 9,873 01/29 : 94.47 : 91.91 : 13,981 : 17,377 : 21,471 : 16,613 // 8,770 : $9,663 : 11,145 : 13,031 : 20,031 : 4,730 : : 9,884 01/22 : 94.75 : 92.17 : 13,994 : 17,392 : 21,490 : 16,627 // 8,762 : $9,654 : 11,152 : 13,039 : 20,043 : 4,871 : : 9,875 01/15 : 94.31 : 91.66 : 13,986 : 17,383 : 21,478 : 16,618 // 8,762 : $9,655 : 11,146 : 13,032 : 20,032 : 4,667 : : 9,864 01/08 : 94.16 : 91.25 : 14,014 : 17,417 : 21,520 : 16,651 // 8,780 : $9,674 : 12,250 : 13,060 : 20,075 : 4,630 : : 9,295 01/01 : 95.47 : 92.41 : 14,080 : 17,499 : 21,622 : 16,729 // 9,135 : 10,399 : 12,435 : 13,257 : 20,378 : 4,631 : : 9,160 12/25 : 96.68 : 93.89 : 14,091 : 17,513 : 21,639 : 16,743 // 9,100 : 10,147 : 12,431 : 13,252 : 20,371 : 4,610 : : 9,877 12/18 : 96.81 : 94.03 : 14,104 : 17,529 : 21,659 : 16,758 // 9,109 : 10,157 : 12,436 : 13,258 : 20,379 : 4,620 : : 9,882 12/11 : 97.10 : 94.37 : 14,128 : 17,560 : 21,697 : 16,787 // 8,950 : $9,980 : 12,379 : 13,196 : 20,285 : 4,619 : 10,357 12/04 : 98.13 : 94.30 : 14,189 : 17,635 : 21,790 : 16,859 // 9,016 : 10,054 : 12,435 : 13,257 : 20,131 : 4,834 : 10,379 Historical Data : http://202.72.14.52/p2/cci/SearchHistory.aspx

He is now looking for $1830, after the "breakout". But I note that Gold is now back down to $1778, so maybe it was a false breakout.

BDEV saved itself by doing a rescue financing some years ago. Since then, various government policies, and dumping properties in Hong Kong etc have also helped. They are a survivor, but they've had to scramble to do it. Could the analyst have foreseen that Hongkongers and Mainlanders would be so eager to throw their money into London property? But I do have to agree that this looks like a major breakout for Barratt It is impossible to know where it will stop, because it has moved into a fresh range, and BDEV will need to form its own top ... in its own time. X : 069.20p : 01.Dec.2010 A : 120.60p : 13 May.2011 B : 064.91p : 19.Aug.2011 ? : 146.90p : 23 Feb.2012 (so far) X-to-A : 51.40p B-to-? : 82.--p (159.5%) Target : 83.--p (161.8%) : 148p ??

Year-on-Year change is now +1.4% Mo.: Rt'mov : London : Rest of UK %chg/ Nt'wide H-oldSA Halif.SA Hal.NSA: HNindex : mom : DelusIdx 2011 J. : : 223,122 : 413,259 : 127,148 - 0.25% / 161,211 = n/a = 164,145 161,470 : £161,341 :- 0.33% :138.3% : F. : : 230,030 : 430,680 : 125,624 - 1.20% / 161,183 = n/a = 162,697 161,680 : £161,432 :+ 0.06% :142.5% : == : = = = = = : = = = = = : O : : 239,672 : 450,210 : 127,252 -1.22% / 165,650 = n/a = 163,311 164,311 : £164,981 : + 0.40% :145.3% : N : : 232,144 : 444,724 : 124,083 -2.49% / 165,798 = n/a = 161,731 160,801 : £163,300 : - 1.02% :142.2% : D : : 225,766 : 434,871 : 12X,xxx - X.xx% / 163,822 = n/a = 160,063 157,803 : £160,813 : - 1.52% :140.4% : 2012 J. : : 224,060 : 438,324 : 12X,xxx - X.xx% / 162,228 = n/a = 160,907 158,879 : £160,554 : - 0.16% :139.6% : F. : : 233,252 : 449,252 : ====================================== mom:+4.10% : +2,49 % : -Est.DI : 139.6% / - 0.97% = n/a = : + 0.53% : +0.69% : - 0.16% yoy : +1.40% : +4.31% But prices remain BELOW the October level

??? Houses are in fixed supply, so if more currency is printed, their price should rise in nominal prices, and may stay steady in gold - now that they have reached a reasonable valuation in gold ounces. GF, How about running a house-price-gold-index for outside london? i think you can assume that somethink like 20% of total housing value is in Greater London

UK houses outside London: could be cheap enough to be a BUY now. This was posted on another thread here:

I tend to agree that it may be "more reflective", but all these indicies have built in biases, and so none of them is a guaranteed of what future Real value gold will hit at some future point. If enough people follow the Gold-in-Official-CPI measure, then you may have many selling when it hits a Double Top by that measure.

That is using the ShadowStats inflation model, I presume. Kindly tell us why it is better than CPI? "Real Gold" by another measure: What percentage of the time was it above the current level? Under 5%? Under 2%?

?? That is ridiculous, GF By the way, your own charts seem to show that some other assets: Houses, Brent, etc are not expensive when measured in Gold. I can find many others (like Natural Gas) that may be at all time lows. Why aren't you recommending these, instead of the not-cheap-on-your-charts Yellow metal? The Perma-Gold-Bulls here seem to take it for granted that Gold MUST go back to its inflation adjusted high. + I grant that this is possible or even likely if Gold is taken up as the main monetary measure in a hyperinflationary blowoff, but: + There are other possible future scenarios, and + What then? If gold makes its old inflationary (1980) high, can we also expect the huge selloff that follows? If so, might you do well to exit before the high?

Hey, guys. Please don't get the idea that I am Bearish on Gold. I have been long Gold and Gold shares since 2001. I just adjust my degree of Bullishness, depending on how I view charts, and whether I think we are in a Buying window, or a Selling Window for Traders. I have not identified a Shorting window, though we have been through some periods where being short would have worked for a few weeks.

I used to own DebtBubble.com, and began to develop it... But decided to focus on this GEI website, and the GreenEnergy and GlobalEdge websites instead http://GoldStock.co.uk remains a very useful website for a quick look at relevant charts. When I am in a hurry, I go there first.

LOL Did you miss the fact that my tongue was firmly in my cheek? I don't know if JS has such a position for his tongue. He is not without humor, but I wonder whether he has a taste for self-irony. ??? I am trying to develop GEI so it appeals to a "better class" of gold Bull. Those who can see through and get past the cult-like behaviour that Mr S encourages. Do your really think JS wants to PROTECT people? I think he wants to walk them straight into an Illuminati trap. Surely you can see that possibility. No one forces you to read any of it. As the year draws on, you may see more and more so-called conspiracy material intrude into what you consider reality. Just this week the Gold-back bonds have once again popped up in the mainstream news. And now we are seeing a rash of top bankers resigning. Before this year is out, I predict that many hear will be thanking me for opening their eyes, just as I did on HPC to the debt crisis. Remember I bought DebtBubble.com well before anyone thought there was a debt problem. And I bought and still own GoldStock.co.uk. Who else do you know, apart from a Marc Faber or Jim Rogers who saw these things so early? I have now jumped ahead of MF and JR in pointing the way towards "disclosure". I may be wrong on this, but just give it another year or so to see what happens. For JS, just look into his family background, and the way he uses Mind control techniques like his $1650 price target. If I met Jim S., I might actually like him, but you have to admit that some of his behavior is creepy.