drbubb

Welcome, TheFox. I will look forward to reading your postings. Be sure and check out: http://www.GlobalPropertyCycles.com ...which leads to another part of this website, where you can find: + UK Property Price Data : http://www.tinurl.com/HPC-data + My UK and US property Diaries

I see that you found it, but it is worth remembering these link: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-data http://tinyurl.com/HPC-data (they lead to the same place : My Housing price data thread)

Bigger Crash = Bigger Opportunities, so long as you hold onto your money

While the Express spews out Bullish Spin (and undermines any credibility it may have had), Zoopla speaks reality - enhancing its own credibility 40% HAVE CUT (at least once) - and that number is growing Zoopla.co.uk: Property Asking Prices Discounted to Highest Level in Over a Year LONDON, August 19, 2011 -- /PRNewswire/ -- -According to Zoopla.co.uk, 2 in 5 properties on the market today have had their price lowered at least once; the average price reduction by sellers is over £18,500- More current sellers have reduced the asking price of their home than at any time in the last year, according to property website Zoopla.co.uk. Two in five (38.6%) of all properties currently for sale in Britain have had their asking prices reduced at least once since coming onto the market, up from 37% three months ago, and well ahead of the 32% one year ago. Even properties over £1 million, where the market has been most resilient, have seen more asking price reductions. Of all £1 million+ properties on the market, 27% have had their price reduced at least once, up from 25% three months ago and significantly higher than the 22% one year ago. Zoopla.co.uk, which offers a unique feature allowing users to hunt for bargains by sorting properties for sale on its website by those that have been most-reduced in price, reveals that sellers have been forced to reduce prices by £18,597 (7.13%) on average in an effort to attract buyers. The average price reduction is now £2,200 more than one year ago when the average discount from the original asking price was 6.1%. And the north-south divide continues to widen in the property market. Sellers in the north are being forced to reduce asking prices by much more than their counterparts in the south. Northern towns and cities dominate the list of places with the highest average price reductions. Sellers in Bolton are suffering the most, having been forced to reduce the original asking price by 8.6% on average. Glasgow (8.2%) and Newcastle-upon-Tyne (8.2%) complete the top three, while other major northern cities like Liverpool are also in the top ten. Conversely, house prices in the south-east have remained more immune to reductions where properties in Chelmsford (5.5%) have the lowest average discount and the list also includes other prominent south-east areas like London (6.3%) and Croydon (5.6%). London has the lowest proportion of price-reduced homes in the UK (32.4%), serving to emphasise its detachment from the rest of the market. Meanwhile, in Stockport, nearly half (47.8%) of all properties for sale have been reduced in price since coming onto the market, closely followed by Huddersfield (46.3%) and Chesterfield (45.8%). Nicholas Leeming, Business Development Director of Zoopla.co.uk, said, "Vendors continue to have to lower prices due to weak buyer demand. Sluggish economic growth has hit buyer confidence and tight-fisted lenders are currently making it impossible for swathes of would-be buyers to benefit from the price reductions. For those who can get mortgages, now is as good a time as there has been in over a year to search for a new property." A list of price reductions in 50 key British cities/towns can be found here: http://www.zoopla.co.uk/pricereduction Read more: http://www.sacbee.com/2011/08/19/3848076/zooplacouk-property-asking-prices.html#ixzz1VX9EiJeW

After 3 months, we can see the accuracy of the BDEV comment The slide to new lows is hardly foreshadowing a "surging" UK property market. There's a real possibility that the UK property market is set to fall off the cliff. And those Upbeat Headlines are nothing more than "damage control" by those with vested interest. "Stick a fork in it!"

After 3 months, we can see the accuracy of the BDEV comment The slide to new lows is hardly foreshadowing a "surging" UK property market. There's a real possibility that the UK property market is set to fall off the cliff. And those Upbeat Headlines are nothing more than "damage control" by those with vested interest. "Stick a fork in it!"

After 3 months, we can see the accuracy of the BDEV comment The slide to new lows is hardly foreshadowing a "surging" UK property market. There's a real possibility that the UK property market is set to fall off the cliff. And those Upbeat Headlines are nothing more than "damage control" by those with vested interest. "Stick a fork in it!"

Does anyone else get annoyed by misleading headlines like this one ?

In an effort to create a new "chain of fools", here comes the Express...

"Could spell misery for all property investors" "A little-known FTSE signal telling you exactly when to buy property again."

Venezuela, which holds 211 tons of its 365 tons of gold reserves in U.S., European, Canadian and Swiss banks, will progressively return the bars to its central bank’s vault, Chavez said yesterday. JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), Barclays Plc (BARC), and Standard Chartered Plc (STAN) also hold Venezuelan gold, he said. “We’ve held 99 tons of gold at the Bank of England since 1980. I agree with bringing that home,” Chavez said yesterday on state television. “It’s a healthy decision.” Yeah. Healthy for Venezuelan dictators who want to confiscate miners. Else the miners might take them to court, win, and grab the gold.

... from DrB's Diary... Yes. You say that - and I am VERY inclined to agree with you, but... The price action is what it is: Bonds have performed as well as gold (!!) It is true, just look at the chart. What this comparison tells me is this: Gold is not moving up on Inflation fear (or hyperinflation fear), it is moving up because it is a secure save haven in a time of rising credit concerns. Ultimately, we will discover that it is EVEN SAFER than Tbonds. I think it is very interesting to watch Intraday: TLT-vs-GLD chart With TLT give us an early warning when Gold is turning down? Or will we see the beginning of a move towards: "Gold is the ultimate Safe Haven?"

Yes, and to keep his gold from being confiscated, he is moving it to home

I also added to my EDV holding recently. Have you see the thread in the mining section

The Mayan leaders are saying: "Stop mining globally." Maybe we will come to that one day

And even when the August figure is reported, it will still be a laggard. BDEV foreshadowed a Good spring, and is now foreshadowing a lousy fall, and maybe even a "drop off a cliff." I'll go with that until I see convincing evidence to the contrary.

This one is a LAGGING Indicator, I believe

Barratt Long term ... update London's a Safe Haven, isn't it ? IT WAS: London property is a Safe Haven London property is considered to be a safe haven for investors, with a dramatic increase in the sales and letting market in March, particularly from buyers located in the Middle East. Prime central London estate agent W A Ellis has reported a surge in demand from investors located in the region, with recent political instability, the tragic crisis in Japan and low sterling exchange rates believed to be behind the increase. "As such, the Central London property market is attracting investment from all over the globe. This demand for property has led to an upsurge in prices and transactions over the last month," Richard Barber, partner and head of residential real estate at the firm, explained. Mr Barber added that the impending increase in stamp duty has also played a part in the higher transaction levels, with many buyers keen to complete deals before the April 5th deadline. However, he questioned whether this would lead to a tapering off of demand once the deadline passes. Meanwhile, recent research from Colliers International has suggested that retail property in central London is one of the best investment options. The study found that retail is the most favoured asset by 64 per cent of investors. April 2011: http://www.ipinglobal.com/ipin-live/365566/london-property-is-a-safe-haven More Lies: http://www.mortgageintroducer.com/ccstory/240908/238/London_a_safe_haven_for_property_investors.htm HOW ABOUT NOW? Rioters went on the rampage in north London on Saturday, torching police cars, a bus and a shop amid widespread looting following a protest over the fatal shooting of a man by armed officers. The patrol cars and the double-decker bus were set ablaze as hundreds ran amok outside the police station on the High Road in Tottenham. Under a hail of missiles, riot officers and mounted police battled to regain control of the streets as fire crews rushed to tackle the burning building... THE YOUNG - They're in this together This is the most extensive rioting Londoners have seen in a generation, surpassing the scope of the huge race riots that paralyzed the city in the 1980s. However this is not race riots as crowds of very young men and women, of every skin colour, typically dressed in almost identical hooded sweatshirts, engaged in running skirmishes with police, looting hundreds of shops, setting dozens of buildings and houses ablaze. And this is not the typical simple hooliganism, something synonym with Britain’s football fans. There are some identical pattern with these rioters. Almost all are under 20 with some as young as 11 years old. Most come from the same neighbourhoods they are looting and burning – the poor neighbourhood. There are high levels of youth unemployment in the districts affected by the riots. They’re also having trouble getting education. They belong to the category “NEETs” – Not in Employment, Education or Training. In short, they are high-school dropouts with no prospects of employment and there’re amazing 600,000 people under 25 in Britain who belong to this type of group. Hence, the black person claimed to be shot by a policeman was an excuse for these people to release their frustration, by going to the streets. It was the tipping point and when the domino effect started, all hell breaks lose /more: http://www.financetwitter.com/2011/08/stunning-photos-of-the-london-riots.html

Okay. I suppose someone has to buy at/near the top. But The message of a falling market is getting out now, I reckon

THE PROPERTY CYCLE - as described by Home.co.uk: Last page "Investors often talk of investment cycles. The cycle for property in the UK appears to be around 18 years.1 The last bottom in house prices was around 1996; hence, based on this rule of thumb, we should expect house prices to find a new low around 2014. However, the unprecedented acts of quantitative easing perpetrated by the western central banks may well have served to lengthen the current cycle. Only time will tell if this is to be the case, but a good indicator of the next market low will be when the number of ounces of gold required to buy the average UK home stops falling."* I mostly agree with that, and I want to point out that timing tends to be consistent, because the Cycle represents an ongoing "learning process" and since we are all human and wired in similar ways, the learning process tends to take a similar amount of time from one cycle to the next. But the last cycle encountered the stubbornness and ambition of Gordon Brown and his absurd intention to put an end to boom and bust. So he delivered a bigger boom, and stretched out the bust, using various tricks that I frequently describe here. Result: The down-phase of the cycle has been delayed, and delayed in London and particular. So it should take AT LEAST 3-4 years, and maybe 6-7 from the London peak, which I reckon we are seeing this year. Along the way, we may get a big fat "bounce" in the prices of UK Houses expressed in Gold, and that might be followed by a long period of further stagnation of Prices-in Pounds and an eventual lower low. == == = *That section came right after these comments: When is the time to invest in property? The famous banker and enormously wealthy contrarian investor Baron Rothschild said about buying property, “Buy when there’s blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own.” He made a fortune buying property in Paris after the battle of Waterloo. Britain is now in the throes of social turmoil in the wake of the credit crunch. Does this signify a new beginning of the economic cycle in property as Rothschild suggests? Or should the patient and intelligent investor wait until this economic winter has run its course? House prices are still rather high historically relative to incomes. They haven’t fallen as far as perhaps they should have, bearing in mind the huge house price bubble that popped in 2007. And this is simply because of the record-breaking low interest rates set by the Bank of England. This policy has avoided forced selling (repossessions) on a massive scale by keeping mortgage rates low. Moreover, quantitative easing and increased government debt has lost the pound much value and this has served to avoid nominal price falls of the magnitude seen in the US.

I mostly agree with that, and I want to point out that timing tends to be consistent, because the Cycle represents an ongoing "learning process" and since we are all human and wired in similar ways, the learning process tends to take a similar amount of time from one cycle to the next. But the last cycle encountered the stubbornness and ambition of Gordon Brown and his absurd intention to put an end to boom and bust. So he delivered a bigger boom, and stretched out the bust, using various tricks that I frequently describe here. Result: The down-phase of the cycle has been delayed, and delayed in London and particular. So it should take AT LEAST 3-4 years, and maybe 6-7 from the London peak, which I reckon we are seeing this year. Along the way, we may get a big fat "bounce" in the prices of UK Houses expressed in Gold, and that might be followed by a long period of further stagnation of Prices-in Pounds and an eventual lower low.

Hmm. Yes. That looks like something that could have been written on GEI !

Is that directed at me? If so, you are off-the-mark once again, JD. I have been using Rightmove data within my historical base for a long time, and was even one of the people on HPC who developed the so-called "Delusion Index", which is a ratio between RM's UK Asking prices, and the H&N Index. This helps to tell you when Asking prices are unrealistically high. And even RM's economist has been telling you that this the case. In fact, their writing has been quite sensible (for the most part) for the last 2-3 years.

True. But it tends to lead the other indices also