drbubb

Light volume into the second top is a sign recognised by many traders, not just me

You've got the most history on Hali-wide. So why not use that ?

Posted on AsiaXpat by OffThePeak (3 days ago) (info from Centaline- release 2 Sept. 2011) UP YET AGAIN... [Centa-City Index]: 99.36 + 0.96 % [Mass -City-Index]: 97.84 + 1.15 % West Kowloon ----- chg. in last month The Arch : 21,311.00 : +10.02 % Sorrento : 15,918.05 : + 2.81 % Park Avenue/ Central Pk : 10,627.55 : + 6.63 % Isl. Harbvw : 9,284.94 : + 4.57 % This doesn't look like a "sliding market" to me ! As the estates I am following in West Kowloon all show a nice jump in the last month.

If you are right, it might hurt UK property prices, as have recent increases in inflation

A 0.5% per Month prices drop (in the H&N Index) qualifies for Crash Cruise Speed, and I would like to see that over at least 3-6 months. -1.67% on Nationwide gives a nice running Jump into it. (You can accuse me of "making up the rules as I go along", if you like. But that's one of the nice perks of being the inventor of the concept.) London was down -3% in Rightmove's data. so it depends on who you want to believe. Did Nationwide give actual figures?

A little bird told... er no, it was Barratt ! Nationwide reported -0.6%, but they must have faulty calculators... Mo.: Rt'mov : London : Rest of UK %chg/ Nt'wide H-oldSA Halif.SA Hal.NSA: HNindex : mom : DelusIdx J. : : 240,394 : 438,622 : 128,965 +0.61% / 168,205 = n/a = 163,430 163,642 : £165,924 :+ 0.70% :144.9% : Jl : : 236,597 : 432,641 : 129,766 +0.62% / 168,731 = n/a = 163,981 164,714 : £166,723 :+ 0.48% :141.9% : A : : 231,543 : 418,008 : 12X,??? +0.??% / 165,914 = n/a = ===================================== mom: - 2.14% : - 3.38% : Est.DI : 138.9% / -1.67% = n/a = :+0.34% :+0.65% : + 0.48% The actual figures was -1.0% more than that, and not far off the fall announced by Rightmove. -1.67% / That's a lot for a major UK index We are speeding into a Crash Cruise Speed period, it would seem.

Obviously, People will pay more to live next to a celebrity. Why else would they do that? Or was that the property sold in 2006 with a "sitting tenant"?

C-C-Crash Cruise speed in B-aaack ! U.K. House Prices Fall Most in 10 Months on Slow Economy, Nationwide Says By Scott Hamilton - Aug 31, 2011 11:00 PM PT U.K. house prices fell the most in 10 months in August as a slowing economic recovery threatens to undermine demand, Nationwide Building Society said. The average cost of a home dropped 0.6 percent to 165,914 pounds ($269,800) from July, the Swindon, England-based customer-owned lender said in an e-mailed report today. From a year earlier, values were down 0.4 percent. While a shortage in the supply of homes for sale and record-low Bank of England interest rates have supported prices, the housing market is struggling to gain momentum as banks restrict lending and Britons’ spending power is eroded by inflation. The British Chambers of Commerce cut its economic growth forecast today as the U.S. recovery slows, Europe’s debt crisis escalates and Britain’s government implements the biggest fiscal squeeze since World War II. “We continue to expect house prices to move sideways or drift modestly lower over the remainder of 2011, although we recognize that the downside risks have increased,” Nationwide Chief Economist Robert Gardner said in the report. “The major risk for the housing market is that weak economic growth could lead to a further deterioration in the labor market.” U.K. consumer sentiment fell for a third month in August as Britons grew more pessimistic about the economy, a report from GfK NOP Ltd. yesterday showed. An index of sentiment slipped 1 point from July to minus 31, while a gauge of households’ expectations for the economy over the coming 12 months fell 4 points to minus 31, the lowest in six months, GfK said. Jobless claims increased the most in more than two years in July. /more: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-01/u-k-house-prices-decline-the-most-in-10-months-nationwide-says.html enjoy ! " the housing market is struggling to gain momentum... Britons’ spending power is eroded by inflation." LOL. What happened to the BOOST from inflation that some were talking about ???

LOL ...meantime, C-C-Crash Cruise speed in B-aaack ! U.K. House Prices Fall Most in 10 Months on Slow Economy, Nationwide Says By Scott Hamilton - Aug 31, 2011 11:00 PM PT U.K. house prices fell the most in 10 months in August as a slowing economic recovery threatens to undermine demand, Nationwide Building Society said. The average cost of a home dropped 0.6 percent to 165,914 pounds ($269,800) from July, the Swindon, England-based customer-owned lender said in an e-mailed report today. From a year earlier, values were down 0.4 percent. While a shortage in the supply of homes for sale and record-low Bank of England interest rates have supported prices, the housing market is struggling to gain momentum as banks restrict lending and Britons’ spending power is eroded by inflation. The British Chambers of Commerce cut its economic growth forecast today as the U.S. recovery slows, Europe’s debt crisis escalates and Britain’s government implements the biggest fiscal squeeze since World War II. “We continue to expect house prices to move sideways or drift modestly lower over the remainder of 2011, although we recognize that the downside risks have increased,” Nationwide Chief Economist Robert Gardner said in the report. “The major risk for the housing market is that weak economic growth could lead to a further deterioration in the labor market.” U.K. consumer sentiment fell for a third month in August as Britons grew more pessimistic about the economy, a report from GfK NOP Ltd. yesterday showed. An index of sentiment slipped 1 point from July to minus 31, while a gauge of households’ expectations for the economy over the coming 12 months fell 4 points to minus 31, the lowest in six months, GfK said. Jobless claims increased the most in more than two years in July. /more: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-01/u-k-house-prices-decline-the-most-in-10-months-nationwide-says.html enjoy ! " the housing market is struggling to gain momentum... Britons’ spending power is eroded by inflation." LOL. What happened to the BOOST from inflation that some were talking about ???

LIES, Damned lies, and Estate Agent reports... Or is this a true account, and maybe a little dated (12 months - year-on-year?) MidEast buyers spur luxury London property boom Real estate prices in central London increased the most in nine months in August as wealthy investors sought a safe haven for their assets amid fears of a global recession, Knight Frank said. Values of houses and apartments costing an average of £3.7m ($6m) rose 10.5 percent in the 12 months through August, the London-based consultancy said, bolstered in part by Arab buyers. “Middle Eastern investors definitely have a sector of the market. Overseas buyers in general are boosting London property prices there is just no question about that,” Grainne Gilmore, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank, told Arabian Business. “Prime London property is an investments class of its own now, it’s decoupled from the rest of the UK market and it more closely resembles other safe haven investments.” The weakness of the pound coupled with fears of a global recession and low base rate have helped push up the value of London’s prime residential properties, the broker said in its August index report. Real estate prices in the capital have increased 36.3 percent since their recent post-credit crunch low in March 2009, said Knight Frank. New buyers increased 11 percent in August compared to the same period the previous year while viewings and offers increased 23 percent and 13 percent, respectively, said the report. “While purchasers buying with sterling are now paying prices in excess of 2008 peak prices, eurozone buyers are still able to achieve a 10 percent discount on 2008 prices and US dollar buyers an 18 percent discount,” said the report. /more lies?: http://www.arabianbusiness.com/mideast-buyers-spur-luxury-london-property-boom-418212.html

LIES, Damned lies, and Estate Agent reports... Or is this a true account, and maybe a little dated (12 months - year-on-year?) MidEast buyers spur luxury London property boom Real estate prices in central London increased the most in nine months in August as wealthy investors sought a safe haven for their assets amid fears of a global recession, Knight Frank said. Values of houses and apartments costing an average of £3.7m ($6m) rose 10.5 percent in the 12 months through August, the London-based consultancy said, bolstered in part by Arab buyers. “Middle Eastern investors definitely have a sector of the market. Overseas buyers in general are boosting London property prices there is just no question about that,” Grainne Gilmore, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank, told Arabian Business. “Prime London property is an investments class of its own now, it’s decoupled from the rest of the UK market and it more closely resembles other safe haven investments.” The weakness of the pound coupled with fears of a global recession and low base rate have helped push up the value of London’s prime residential properties, the broker said in its August index report. Real estate prices in the capital have increased 36.3 percent since their recent post-credit crunch low in March 2009, said Knight Frank. New buyers increased 11 percent in August compared to the same period the previous year while viewings and offers increased 23 percent and 13 percent, respectively, said the report. “While purchasers buying with sterling are now paying prices in excess of 2008 peak prices, eurozone buyers are still able to achieve a 10 percent discount on 2008 prices and US dollar buyers an 18 percent discount,” said the report. /more lies?: http://www.arabianbusiness.com/mideast-buyers-spur-luxury-london-property-boom-418212.html

PRICE WAR in the making ? / Maybe not That was the headline in the Standard based on this "coming supply" Price war in the making Tony Liaw ... September 01, 2011 A looming glut of flats may trigger a price war, driving home prices down further, as a fresh supply of more than 10,000 new homes is ready to hit the market in the fourth quarter. But weak market sentiment is hampering demand, said Lawrence Poon Wing-cheung, a specialist in real estate development at City University. "Developers may find it really hard to sell their flats due to the volatility in the equity markets," he said. "A price war should be expected." Poon added that effects from the prolonged low interest rate environment have been offset by a stalling global economy. "Home prices could slump 20 to 30 percent," he predicted. Government measures launched last November appear to have substantially cooled the previously red-hot property market. For the first six months, only 4,000 new flats were put on the market - some 30 to 50 percent fewer than that in the same period in the previous two years. But with ongoing construction there will an unprecedented 10,417 new homes coming onstream in the fourth quarter. As follows*: FLATS COMING ONSTREAM District==== : Units : Project==== : Developer (HK Island) Wan Chai---- : 0,237 : One Wachai- : Chinese Est. / URA Happy Valley : 0,126 : The Altitude- : Kerry Prop. / Peterson Gp Tai Hang----- : 0,103 : 9 Warren St. : Wing Tai Prop. Wong ChukH : 0,411 : Marinella--- : K Wah / Sino / Nan Fung (Kowloon) Olympic Sta.- : 1,234 : Long Beach : Hang Lung WK / Kow-Sta : 0,740 : Hoi Wan Rd : Sino / Nan Fung / etc. Hung Hom---- : 0,464 : Chatham Gt. : SHKP / Shun Tak Kowln. Tong-- : 0,120 : One Mayfair : Sino Land (N.T.) Tai Po ---------- : 1,235 : Providence : Sino / Nan Fung / others Tai Wai --------- : 1,548 : Fest. City III : Cheung Kong / MTRC Sha Tin --------- : 0,981 : Che Kung T. : New World / MTRC Ma On Shan --- : 0,919 : Lok Who CS : Henderson / New World Tseung Kwan O : 1,028 : The Wings - : SHKP / MTRC Tseung Kwan O : 1,169 : LaSplendeur : Cheung Kong / MTRC Lantau Island -- : 0,102 : Amalfi, DBay : HK Resorts Int'l Sun Hung Kai Properties (0016) launched Imperial Cullinan in June. A special apartment was quickly sold at HK$42,800 per square foot, establishing a new record in the district around Olympic MTR Station. Expecting home prices to stand high with a splashy opening, the developer planned to release more batches. However, as the Hong Kong Monetary Authority tightened mortgage lending further, and stocks retreated on global financial turmoil, SHKP ha s not yet sold all luxury flats in the project. "The developer originally had a target of selling all units within two weeks after the launch," a property agent said. "It's now more than two months, and there are still over 10 flats available." /more: http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_detail.asp?we_cat=16&art_id=114748&sid=33575368&con_type=3&d_str=&fc=7 "10 flats available" out of 650 flats is hardly a big deal ! What horse-pucky ! *Hang Lung's 1,234 flats were completed in 2004, and they have been waiting for the right time to sell. Like the other HK developers they are financially strong and can go on waiting.

Looking back at how the UK "saved" its housing market, delaying the crash... Both countries fell at "crash cruise speed" from their peaks, and: By late 2008: + After a July 2006 peak, the US was down about 33%, and + After a Aug. 2007 peak, the UK was down about 20% (less in London) ...When ZIRP was introduced. A 20% drop is easier to recover from, obviously. Especially when it is suddenly cheaper to own than rent, and BTL landlords are coining it after ZIRP. Brown's "sneak attack" on the Housing Bear market worked, but the magic is fading fast now.

Both countries fell at "crash cruise speed" from their peaks, and: By late 2008: + After a July 2006 peak, the US was down about 33%, and + After a Aug. 2007 peak, the UK was down about 20% (less in London) ...When ZIRP was introduced. A 20% drop is easier to recover from, obviously. Especially when it is suddenly cheaper to own than rent, and BTL landlords are coining it after ZIRP. Brown's "sneak attack" on the Housing Bear market worked, but the magic is fading fast now.

JD, You have to count as follows: MONTHS AFTER THE PEAK,: + USA was: July 2006 + UK's was Aug. 2007 That's not enough time (just over a year) in the UK to "break the Bull psychology"

Yeah, but ZIRP came too late to "save" the property market in the USA, Eire... Prices had already fallen too far, and "the back" of market psychology had already been broken. While it was well-tested in most of the UK, and probably "broke" outside London, the property Bulls were not given a long enough drop to break their bullish complacency. And then Mr Brown's corrupted regime added the further support of generous and indiscriminant Housing benefits. It will be more painful for the market when the props are pulled away one-by-one

BIG BEAR CALL ...in stocks

EXCERPT: 28 August 2011 IMF chief Lagarde in warning on economic recovery Christine Lagarde took over from Dominique Strauss-Kahn The head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said the global economy is not growing at a fast enough pace and faces a number of risks to recovery. Christine Lagarde warned a threat of global recession remained and called for coordinated policy action. She said this should include the mandatory recapitalisation of European banks. Ms Lagarde was speaking at a US Federal Reserve meeting at Jackson Hole, US. "Developments this summer have indicated we are in a dangerous new phase," she said. "The stakes are clear; we risk seeing the fragile recovery derailed - so we must act now." === === == I would say the reverse : You must NOT act now. A good recession and restructuring is what the world truly needs. But Christine does not agree. "Put simply, macroeconomic policies must support growth," Ms Lagarde said in her first major policy speech since taking the IMF reins in July. "Monetary policy also should remain highly accommodative, as the risk of recession outweighs the risk of inflation," she added. No wonder stock markets around the world rallied... They see a global QE3 coming. But I reckon they may be disappointed.

Why not learn from Martin Armstrong, and also a little from me: "No bailouts without haircuts" There IS A WAY to out of this mess... Instead of Outright Forgiveness, why not (do what Jules Caesar wanted to do): DO NOT FORGIVE THE DEBT, but force lenders who lent too much, to buy part of the asset Here's how the system works: 1) You "mark" assets to old values - like 2003 or something. So if "today's value is say GBP 200,000, and the value in 2003 was GBP 100,000, then if the loan exceeds the 2003 valuation of GBP 100,000, then the lender is going to have to buy a share of the asset. If the Loan is GBP 100,000 or less, no change is needed. 2) Let's look at two cases, involving a residential home: + 2a: A Loan of GBP 200,000 : The lender "buys" half of the home, writing down to loan to GBP 100,000, so the Borrower owns 50%, and the Lender owns 50% + 2b: A Loan of GBP 150,000 : The lender "buys" one-third of the home writing down to loan to GBP 100,000, so the Borrower owns 67.7%, and the Lender owns 33.3%. 3) The Borrower pays the GBP 100,000 Mortgage over 25 years at a market interest rate, and pays a little extra rent to the Bank, depending on what percentage the bank owns. 4) If and when the house is sold, the bank receives repayment of its mortgage, and each owner gets their share of equity on anything left THIS SYSTEM has various advantages + Immediate debt relief + Much less moral hazard, since the more debt, the more equity the bank gets + The bank shares in the upside in a "fair" way, if there is any

Looking back... MTR kicks off tender process for Nam Cheong station project 22 April 2010 - South China Morning Post The MTR Corp yesterday kicked off the tender process for the HK$33 billion Nam Cheong station commercial and residential project, in line with the government's policy of releasing more sites to cool the overheated property market. A spokesman for the railway operator said the company would invite developers to submit expressions of interest today. Developers will have until next Thursday to show their interest. The project on top of the station in Sham Shui Po is close to two public housing estates - Fu Cheong Estate and Nam Cheong Estate. The 6.2-hectare site could house nine 7- to 9-storey low-rise and nine 42- to 46-storey high-rise residential buildings with a 287,732 square foot shopping centre. It could provide 3,300 units with a total residential floor area of 2.96 million sqft and is scheduled for completion in 2016. The MTR is negotiating the land premium with the Lands Department. The firm estimated the project's total investment cost, including the land premium levy and construction cost, at about HK$33 billion. As the project will be developed in two phases, the developer could pay the premium in two stages. According to Centaline Property Agency data, property prices at the seven-year-old Metro Harbour View (MHV) range between HK$4,964 and HK$5,137 per square foot. ( Today: MHV : $7,074.75 psf - chart ) == == (2) 26 May 2010 - The Standard Only three developers have submitted tenders for the HK$33 billion residential- commercial development atop Nam Cheong station near Cheung Sha Wan. Cheung Kong Holdings (0001), Henderson Land (0012) and Sun Hung Kai Properties (0016) were the only bidders although 12 developers expressed interest earlier. ``Given the project's large scale, high investment, numerous market choices, we find having three tenders very satisfactory and within our expectations,'' said MTR Corp (0066) property director Thomas Ho Hang-kwong. ...The premium for the first phase of 1,900 flats alone will amount to a record HK$13 billion, or an accommodation value of about HK$6,500 per square foot given a gross floor area of over 1.9 million sq ft. Ho expects the winning developer, which will be announced as soon as possible, to begin the second phase two years later after construction work for the high-speed rail finishes. (3) Hong Kong Cancels Tender For Nam Cheong Station Property Project 28 May 2010 HONG KONG (Dow Jones)--The tender for the property project located above Nam Cheong station in Hong Kong's Sham Shui Po district has been canceled, Nam Cheong Property Development Ltd., the government-backed company overseeing project, said Friday, without providing a reason for the cancellation. Analysts said the cancellation suggests developers might have had reservations about making a massive investment in the Nam Cheong project when the government is scheduled to auction a prime site in Ho Man Tin in Kowloon in June and another high-end site on The Peak in July. The HK$33 billion project drew tenders from blue-chip developers Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd. (0016.HK), Cheung Kong (Holdings) Ltd. (0001.HK) and Henderson Land Development Ltd. (0012.HK). 'This will be interpreted as a negative signal (for the property market),' said David Ng, the head of regional property research at Royal Bank of Scotland. 'But the withdrawal may also suggest developers weren't satisfied with the share of the profits they would have got from the project.' (4) China Real Time: Has the Tide Turned on Hong Kong Property? 2 June 2010 - Wall Street Journal Many Hong Kongers are holding their breaths for a dive in property prices after government moves to cool the market and after two sites were auctioned off at disappointing prices. But will a drop really happen? A mild correction, yes. But the likelihood for any major near-term price decline is very small. Some argue that the tide has changed after two recent auctions fetched lower-than-expected prices. The real-estate market was dealt a further blow after a mega high-end property project at Hong Kong's Nam Cheong subway station was withdrawn by the government due to unattractive bids. But how indicative are these transactions? Not very, according to surveyors and market watchers. Sites sold at recent auctions were situated in noncore areas near the airport of the Lantau Island and Fanling district of Hong Kong's New Territories. Both drew only mild interests from small- and mid-sized developers because their locations are not well suited to luxury homes. Developments that fail to generate lucrative premiums aren't coveted by big builders these days. The massive residential/commercial project at Nam Cheong station has the ideal location for high-end homes, but it carries a hefty land premium of 13 billion Hong Kong dollars ($1.67 billion), or nearly HK$6,600 ($847) a square foot,

I wonder why we do not see this chart from the self-assured Gold-purists ? In my role as truth-teller (of even some unwelcome truths)... I have to disagree with that. Gold is not "keeping up with monetary inflation and price inflation." It is soaring far ahead of price inflation, as it wins new converts who think that Gold must keep touch with some exotic measures of monetary inflation. Here's Gold versus a more convention Monetary measure - M3 /see: http://www.howprofit.com/portfolio/future/us-m3-money-supply-vs-gold-chart-1970-2011.html Gold would have to fall to bring it back to the Mean: M3-to-Gold Ratio.

This Lady's not for turning... Not in West Kowloon and not yet. Prices were released yesterday: 26 Aug. 2011

Better than Oil Street? 13 developers bid for station project 26-08-2011 A total of 13 developers have submitted bids for a property project above Nam Cheong Station. The MTR Corporation said the market response was satisfactory. It's expected to announce the tender result next month. Last year, the MTRC scrapped a previous tendering exercise, after only three developers competed for the site. The residential and commercial site is estimated to be worth between HK$13.2 and HK$21.1 billion. It will provide 3,300 flats.

NEO-72 at OtherPlace.com-ish mentions some Big Dates ...We have a zombie housing market, propped up by tax payer subsidies of one form or another, it was worth making a note of any upcoming changes in policy and any expected impacts. So the two main ones coming up in the near future I can think of are: 1) Changes to the Local Housing Allowance (October 2011). From the ‘official’ (i.e. probably over-optimistic) estimates it looks like 83% of claimants will lose out, with an average loss of around £40 a month (£74 in London). I’d be very surprised if this didn’t put downward pressure on rents (to assume otherwise, assumes 100% of renters have no alternative e.g. parents), and so yields, and increases the likelihood of tenants defaulting on rent. My prediction – a gradually increasing stream of BTL’s from early next year. 2) End of FTB stamp duty holiday (March 2012). When the original stamp duty holiday (for all buyers, not just first-time) ended in December 2009, there was quite a hefty increase in volumes in the months preceding the deadline, followed by a huge fall in volume in the months after, so wouldn’t be surprised to see this pattern again. Don’t think it will be so pronounced this time around as there is probably (rightly) some scepticism that it will actually end, it only (theoretically) affects FTBs, and it has been going for much longer than the original scheme (and how many FTBs with circa 25% deposit are there?) but still would expect to see a relative drop in volumes and an acceleration in price falls after April. ==== ==== Other Other-Placers cannot quite get that it is not overall population that is likely to change in the UK, but household size. And a change in that can dramatically influence housing demand. They go on about other fantasies... If at some point the economy implodes, and government was no longer able to pay benefits, or even guarantee food in the shops...well I feel there would be an exodus. Or is there something special about this sceptered isle that would keep everyone here? I wonder if anyone will "spill the beans"

"Save us, Ben!" Ben: "I cannot hear you."