drbubb

I think I have demonstrated to anyone's satisfaction that the PRICE RISK in Buy & Hold has thus far been massively higher than the purely theoretical risk that you discuss. Have you noticed that I have slowly been building up Physical Silver in these portfolios, and before long I expect to be left with: + 10,000 oz. of Physical Silver (matching the Buy & Hold portfolio) + Some calls on SLV and other traded instruments + Plenty of cash With that mix, I will never be at risk of falling so far that my portfolio will be as bad off as B&H. By focussing on a theoretical risk, you have been blindsided by the price risk === === Today I have added: SLV.Jan$25 calls : x 1,000 at $6.85 - (this matches a real trade done today in one of my trading portfolios) Yesterday, I sold some higher strike SLV calls, that were no longer needed

The Book's position was Hanging up in Top 200, until the latest week... NYT Hard Cover Best-Seller list Position of Wilcock's "The Source Field Investigations" (SFI) 2011-10-02 : Fell off 2011-09-25 : #18 2011-09-18 : #16 2011-09-11 : #18 COMMENT from an open-minded skeptic: I've always been interested in what David Wilcock has to say, but as to whether or not he and his information is genuine, I am on the fence and will remain on the fence (at least until I give his book a good read). Of course, everyone is going to come here spouting off "WiLcoX SAID disclosure was HAppeniN in NOvvember 2009 and iT didN'T HaPeNNN!!!!! He iz da HOAXXXXER!!!!!" And although that event certainly doesn't add to his credibility, I don't think it writes him off as a hoaxer/charlatan either. It does, however, underline the key problem I have with David: his trust, reliance, and interest in so-called "whistle-blowers", a la Project Camelot. Anybody who relies on such whistleblowers to relay any kind of information, under the label of "fact", is setting themselves up for failure. Plain and simple. Besides that, I think Wilcock is very intelligent and a genuinely spiritual guy- He just tries too hard and goes too far to try and get attention to his ideas. If he hadn't of cried wolf for disclosure, many people who have written him off would still be taking him seriously (although, of course there are the people who have never taken him seriously who wouldn't change their opinion at all :lol. If he hadn't spouted off he was Edgar Cayce reincarnated, I'm sure he would be about 20 times as popular as he is now. I think the main issue here is that Wilcock lets his own personal beliefs and biases get in the way of his research and presentations- A vice that many other researches and presenters have gone to great lengths to avoid displaying. Some of his work has been truly mind-blowin: I read the article he wrote on all the different patches and insignias of government/military space programs... and it really did blow my mind at how smart and true he put his information together. He has done a TON of research on all kinds of phenomena- enough to get himself some serious air time on "Ancient Aliens". He also has a keen knack for digging out scientific studies and findings that go generally un-noticed by mainstream science, but are very interesting and relevant none-the-less (i.e., the research Wiclock found done by Russian Scientists that describe how people's emotions psychology completely change when they sit in a pyramid). Some of the science could definitely (and already is, has been, and will be) labeled off as fringe-science or just fake altogether. But it's not Wilcock doing the research- he is just presenting what others have done. Will I buy his book- Definitely. /see: http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/thread688163/pg1

Alex Jones generates his fair share of comedy. Sometimes unintentionally, no doubt.

Yeah, Right. We cannot trust infowars on this report. They must have hired an actor to lie about how the Feds funded this operation. Susan Lindauer must be lying too, since she is on the same page of this thread

THE 911 ATTACK on WTC a surprise? (My @rse it was !) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D3STqgGCIR0&NR=1 She was a CIA "asset" with direct contact with Iraq on behalf of the CIA. Here she tells the inside story. Unless she was lying, the CIA knew about the attack in April 2001, and was setting up an operation around airplane hijackings and an attack. Description: Amazing testimony of ex CIA Asset Susan Lindauer. 5 years of legal troubles, 1 year in prison for daring to tell the truth. During the Bush era the top controllers of the governmental mechanics of Defense and national Security wanted to have a war with Iraq. They got their wish and anyone who got in the way were dealt with severely no matter if they violated a law or not. Not brought to trial she was jailed under the "Patriot Act" which amounted to summary punishment outside a Verdict in a court of law. She was punished in jail without a Trial at all This is part of her story that is just unfolding now. She has waited 10 years to tell this story. === === This story makes me very @ngry. How can anyone have been vile enough to plan the operation she discusses?

AN INTERVIEW by someone who actually READ Wilcock's book http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oIqREtKFlm0 She's almost gushing / is gushing at times The book's launch coincided with this

Quiff, No one gets it right all the time - Neely has a good track record. And he doesnt claim perfection like some the Gold Buy & Hold wizards do. ("Never ever ever ... sell you gold," is my definition of a nonsense.) (Sorry to say this, but some here have lots to learn about how markets work, and I fear they will learn the hard way. Don't say I did not warn you.

DD: Don't forget what I said: "Anything can happen." I reckon, You are far too complacent. I have been warning you and the others to be careful, think for yourself, and not listen only to the perma-Bulls. You may have a huge lesson to learn. For your sake, I hope this proves to be only a warning. But you just might find that Glenn Neely is more right than Jim Sinclair despite all the assurances the Gold Bugs have given you.

Whoops! Just saw it. Pretty different message than we are getting from the B&H bulls, isnt it?

From DrB's Diary... Look what Neowave has come out with ! The REAL PROBLEM now is there are not enough shorts. If there were more shorts, then we would see buying driven by short-covering. The parabolic move up, chased them out, and brought in too many new bulls, who were way too complacent, and maybe still are. From above: Now I just got this email from Glenn Neely who has a good track record forecasting Gold prices: NEOWAVE: Gold's Bull Market is Over After a nearly $400 drop off this year's high, we can finally say Gold's 12-year bull market is over. For quite some time I've warned that America was on the verge of an entirely new type of economic environment - Deflation! Since our last bout of deflation was 80 years ago, this is a situation virtually no living American can remember. The impact on banks, home values, debts of all kinds and consumers, will be profound. This means that everything denominated in U.S. dollars will - over the next few years - begin to drop in value. That will cause huge problems for all legal contracts based on payments in U.S. dollars, especially housing loans. Are we headed down to $1200 or even $1000? "Anything can happen," Gentles. "Never ever ever sell your gold." Indeed ! - what piss-poor advice that could seem in a few months.

With Gold down today again... almost $100 : I want to put a clip on YouTube... Robert Ian saying: "Never ever ever... sell your Gold." (What a great pre-warning of a coming top was that !) And this: Big Picture: “Ready to Launch”--All Roads Lead to Gold MP3: http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2011-0910-2.mp3 Jim looks at two more topics on the Big Picture this week, "Ready to Launch: all roads leading to Gold" and "Policy Response" analyzing President Obama’s speech on jobs, and potential next moves for the Federal Reserve. I think some purists need to do some serious rethinking of their "eternal principles" A little bit of guru tapping may not be a bad thing, to bring the point home... ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN ! You may find you will trade better (as I did) when you adapt that as your mantra. Buying Opportunity? Maybe. Gold actually traded BELOW the 144d MA in Hong Kong and the UK. I plan to buy some there (about GLD-$153), if it trades there in the UK

Meantime, in Denver: Infowars Covers Operation Mountain Guardian Kurt Nimmo .. Infowars.com .. September 23, 2011 Infowars.com correspondents Darrin McBreen and Aaron Dykes are on the ground in Denver, Colorado, covering a massive martial law take-over drill now underway. More than 100 federal and state agencies are currently involved in Operation Mountain Guardian, billed as a drill to simulate a terrorist attack based on events in Mumbai that killed 164 people in 2008. I can assure you that this is not a "Denver accent": At the end, he reveals that it is Federal government money that is paying for the drill. As yourself, why are the Feds so interested in malls and crowd control in Denver. (Might they want to be sure that the nearby DUMBs will remain safe?)

wELCOME I look forward to reading more of your posts

"Highly Speculative"? Maybe. But given the next "expected big quake" day is tomorrow, I thought why not post this here:

Many would agree with you. I am adding some gold, and/or taking profits on my hedges. "Don't be a headless manic chicken" - Are you talking about Buy-to-Holders? And especially those who are geared, and may now panic and sell at low prices? The Buy-to-Holders here may say to you: "Buy more??? With what ?" The Buy and Hedgers, are the big winners on a move like this.

For the record here: Pix, I am already moving back into Silver and SLV in the Beating B&H portfolios. I see the risks, but want to sidestep some of the price risks in precious, when it shoots up too fast. In fact, with one brief exception, I have stayed long 10,000 ounces or shares (either thru Physicals, SLV, or SLV calls) through almost the whole period since I started putting the cash from the Silver top back to work - That's in the Beating B&H portfolios, at least. When you see some Muppets ringing Bells, saying that gold is going to skyrocket, after it already has gone parabolic... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5RkDwKb9hcw Then it maybe time to switch to safer Gold plays, like GLD calls. Sept, 9th: Gold is “Dirt Cheap” — Price Could Reach $10,000 per Ounce Faber's a smart guy, and I always pay attention to him. But when others start making big scare headlines around his ideas talking about a 5-fold Gold price increase fro current levels, it may be a warning sign. Faber admits the price of the precious metal may remain volatile; after hitting a new high of $1923.70 on Tuesday, gold has fallen about $100 per ounce. But in the long-term "gold will be very well supported" because of global demographics and the continued debasement of fiat currencies, including the U.S. dollar. Compare gold prices to the amount of wealth created in the emerging markets over the last decade and the increase in the monetary base around the world, the price of gold is "relatively low," says Faber. Compare it to the quality of politicians and at $1,800 per ounce gold is "dirt cheap," he half jokes. He won't put a price target on the metal but he does say, "according to some statistics the gold price today should be worth between $6,000 per ounce and $10,000 per ounce." If that's true, then "dirt cheap" might be the right phrase. They didn't headline his comment that "Gold can correct to $1500... $1700."

Doctrinaire Science does not hold all the answers, since Scientific beliefs do change

This may turn out to be great advice. But sitting through the slide after the obvious parabolic move up in Gold was not so great an idea

Amazement As Speed Of Light 'Is Broken' Fri, Sep 23, 2011 \ Scientists at the world's largest physics lab think they may have proved Albert Einstein's theory of relativity wrong - by breaking the speed of light. http://uk.news.yahoo.com/video/skyworldnews-14898227/amazement-as-speed-of-light-is-broken-26707791.html

Maybe just a Ten or two rather than hundreds. (I said elsewhere: my very small speculative account is up 30% in the last 2-3 weeks) But the best thing was being green when most traders were seeing red. It keeps you in a positive frame of mind, seeking opportunity. Getting hit with losses causes most people to retreat into "bunker mentality". They get shell-shocked and miss trades. (I know, I feel it often enough.) Here's a good podcast on developing a winning mindset: Avoid "the cess pool" feeling you get after repeated losses. She talks about that in the Bailey interview

WARNING: I saw a similar story on the HK news tonight: Space Debris Rain Set for Friday: NASA September 23, 2011 A defunct NASA satellite is expected to plunge back to earth on Friday, raising concerns that blazing hot debris may shower down on the unsuspecting terrestrial population. NASA's Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite, shown in an artist's rendering, is expected to crash land Friday leaving a trail of debris 500 miles long. The satellite originally measured the chemistry and energy of the Earth's atmosphere before being decommissioned in 2005. NASA said on Thursday to expect pieces of the satellite to start falling in the afternoon, Easter Daylight Time, but the projection isn't 100 percent accurate. "It is still too early to predict the time and location of re-entry with any more certainty, but predictions will become more refined in the next 24 hours," NASA said late Thursday. /source: http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/218884/20110923/beware-of-space-debris-rain-set-for-friday-nasa.htm (Is this a cover for "elite" people going underground?)

On which assets? The point of the Beating B&H thread is to show: + You can protect price risk effectively with options + There are times when technical indicators give very useful signals + Buy and Hold CAN be beat with a disciplined approach I am not gambling. I am using a very careful approach that everyone who wants a core long exposure to meatls can learn from. The criticism of it has mostly been mostly ill informed, it doesnt examine what I am truly doing. Which is a pity

Fun had... Rebalancing mostly done, I can revert to...

PD, You might want to re-enter via Calls. Maybe SLV Jan.$30 calls, or some-such. That will leave you with much flexibility

I just bought SLV at $31.90. That's the equivalent to buying Silver at $33 or lower My $27 forecast looks very possible now