drbubb

Give us a list ! They are easier to find in the USA: Places like Greenville SC

(From the AsiaXpat thread): Posted by Loyd Grossman is Miss Venezuela (1 day ago) ...Not bullish on the New Territories property market at all. Like HK island and property stocks (someone has to build all these flats). This is not a tip (I'm not an investment professional) but Great Eagle 0041 - a real Cinderella stock - is now trading at an ultra cheap price-to-book ratio of 34 cents (ie you pay 34 cents for each $1 of value). It's now $17.38, I own it at about $22 (sniff). Hysan's price-to-book is 61 cents, Henderson's 52 cents, Sun Hung Kai's 84 cents, Cheung Kong 73 cents, New World Development's 34 cents, Wharf's 63 cents, Hang Lung's $1.06 (expensive), Sino Land 75 cents.

MM, What do you reckon this might be - A wormhole in action?

Accidental Discovery - Is this a "Particle Beam Weapon" or a Transport method ? Sam captured footage of what appears to be a Particle Beam Weapon or some other very sophisticated technology hitting the ground in the mountains around Taos, New Mexico. MESSAGE FROM THE FILMMAKER: A warm & hearty hello to all my fellow questers, I'd like to first say thank you again to Kerry Cassidy...the haven she provides in the form of PROJECT CAMELOT is incredibly vital to those of us who refuse to accept the lies. A big thank you also to Bill Ryan and all the CAMELOT witnesses for blazing the trail before me. As for my story, I'm what would be classified as an "experiencer". I unintentionally captured something remarkable on film while working on a farm just outside of Taos, New Mexico. Over the course of the next 40 days my footage mutated into a short film called "Sudden Porthole". ===== ===== After you have seen the "particle beam", or whatever it might be - there's not much need to watch this. COMMENTS=== Very, very interesting. I think probably the simplest explanation is that it was some kind of black ops testing of an energy beam weapon. Have you thought about going back with a different vehicle, or perhaps hiking overland? (I know it looks like a long walk, but might be the only way.) ClaireSapphyck 10 hours ago I think this was a great production for what you were working with! As well, good presentation! actually when you view the site on Google earth; it appears to be a 'cul de sac' possibly for a feeding trough for someones farm animals, a look out, or a pick up/drop off location. There's no reason for the layouts existence aside from 'Tony's mafia body drop'...I'm not saying there's anything going on... but it appears that way! Go rent a vehicle and try again brother... skottidogg10 10 hours ago Split second of light beam... 37 minutes of, 'shoveling poop'! DaddyNowhere 10 hours ago the nwo supports your belief that aliens are here to help you... they support all facets of the new age movement. they love the fact your consumed by videos like this... because it distracts you from learning about and following Jesus who is your true salvation. nothing else will save you... Jesus is our only hope and salvation. CMTELEGRAPH 12 hours ago A very odd phenomenon. Interesting and entertaining film! raindog951 12 hours ago I really would like my time back. Can I at least bill you for it? spamystyle 13 hours ago

"If you are going to forecast, Forecast often." And if you are going to read forecasts, read them often. It depends what your expectations are, how useful they will be. I think you can get an edge from reading the work of a good forecaster, but my expectations are nowhere near the 100% level. If they are 60-70% accurate, they can be very useful when combined with good money management. And they may also help to identify key points for stops and where a trader should change his view. I have this "more tolerant" attitude, because I have tried forecasting myself, with some good and bad results, and so have a more realistic attitude about what is possible.

Sold over 80% of my HK Prop. Developer shares at something like 8% profit, keeping only some shares in Hang Lung and SHKP, "mostly paid-for" with the profits. I expect lower prices before year-end

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: First round of purchases is up over 6% The 2nd round of purchases is up over 8% I have put the first sell order in

I see those sort of numbers frequently, Yet most people will often say: "Houses are a better investment than flats." Is it because they think the underlying land value is going up?

WAS THIS TOO MUCH WORK for a project I will probably not invest in now ? : NFQ-post#28 "Looks like a bit of a dump. How much are such places?" (It isn't Kensington, of course. You can buy something new in Kensington for maybe GBP1,000-1,500 psf. To get a new property like this at under GBP400-500 psf, you have to go far away from London, or into a "gentrifying area", like Poplar's Lansbury Estate, which was for a long time a working class area. The other obvious areas at similar distance to Canary have already been developed, and are more expensive and more crowded.) "Anything 'sustainable' about the area (excluding crime)?" (Sure - the jobs! As you know, there is nothing within London that can really be considered "sustainable" from a food-growing point of view. You are unlikely to find that within one of the top cities of the world. You will have to go to some bombed out third world city like Havana, or maybe the Detroit of the future to find a place where a city grows a substantial amount of its own food. What you look for is jobs to sustain your investment. Nearby jobs will mean that people can afford to pay the rent. From NFQ, you can walk in 10-12 minutes to Canary Wharf where there are many high-paying jobs in law, finance, accountancy, etc. We can expect a decline in the earnings in that sector. Paradoxically, that might increase demand for good quality properties in the immediate area, as people with falling incomes choose to save money by living in something nice-but-cheap which is close to work and so has less commuting time and expense. But whether or not it will play out that way, time will tell.) "Crime?" (Again, the area is obviously not as safe as Kensington, or other "safer" and much-more-expensive neighborhoods. But neither is it the first new development in the area - Look around (!) there are many. But this one is large enough to begin to change the character of the neighborhood - which was the main reason that I was interested. I think this might represent the "inflection point" wherein the gentrification really starts to take hold and change the neighborhood. The fact that it is next to a park (Bartley Park), where the developers will spend GBP 1 million on landscaping and other up grading expenses will also help. Reading these future changes in not a science, it is more of an art. I have years of experience in making these assessments, and if I can walk around on the ground, I usually get it right. But I did not do the walk in this case, and of course it will take months and years to see if the gentrification really happens." "The Church is a monstrosity." (Beauty, or the lack of it may be in the eye of the beholder. The Church of St. Mary and St Joseph is a Grade II listed church, prized as an example of the work of architect Adrian Gilbert Scott. Like you, I would prefer a church by Thomas Hawksmore. But this one is meant to be very nice from the inside, and would look far better if/when it is cleaned up, and the landscaping is improved. Fortunately, the flat I choose was a top floor flat, looking across the top of the church, so it would be a small but important part of the view, rather than completely dominating it.) I do appreciate the questions, but am disappointed that you seem to have not bothered to at least skim the many hours of research that has already been put into developing this thread. But thanks for the questions whether you looked at the prior posts or not. It does help to clarify the thought process. Part of the reason I did all this work, and then left it posted on GEI, was to show the sort of work that I think a person should do on a large property investment before they invest 100,000's of Pounds. As someone once said, many people will invest 5 years or 10 years worth of income in a property without doing as much work as they do in deciding what stereo system to buy. I think it would be great if others would do research like this on a property investment, and then post the results oin GEI/GPC. What a wonderful resource this website would become !

WAS THIS TOO MUCH WORK for a project I will probably not invest in now ? : NFQ-post#28 "Looks like a bit of a dump. How much are such places?" (It isn't Kensington, of course. You can buy something new in Kensington for maybe GBP1,000-1,500 psf. To get a new property like this at under GBP400-500 psf, you have to go far away from London, or into a "gentrifying area", like Poplar's Lansbury Estate, which was for a long time a working class area. The other obvious areas at similar distance to Canary have already been developed, and are more expensive and more crowded.) "Anything 'sustainable' about the area (excluding crime)?" (Sure - the jobs! As you know, there is nothing within London that can really be considered "sustainable" from a food-growing point of view. You are unlikely to find that within one of the top cities of the world. You will have to go to some bombed out third world city like Havana, or maybe the Detroit of the future to find a place where a city grows a substantial amount of its own food. What you look for is jobs to sustain your investment. Nearby jobs will mean that people can afford to pay the rent. From NFQ, you can walk in 10-12 minutes to Canary Wharf where there are many high-paying jobs in law, finance, accountancy, etc. We can expect a decline in the earnings in that sector. Paradoxically, that might increase demand for good quality properties in the immediate area, as people with falling incomes choose to save money by living in something nice-but-cheap which is close to work and so has less commuting time and expense. But whether or not it will play out that way, time will tell.) "Crime?" (Again, the area is obviously not as safe as Kensington, or other "safer" and much-more-expensive neighborhoods. But neither is it the first new development in the area - Look around (!) there are many. But this one is large enough to begin to change the character of the neighborhood - which was the main reason that I was interested. I think this might represent the "inflection point" wherein the gentrification really starts to take hold and change the neighborhood. The fact that it is next to a park (Bartley Park), where the developers will spend GBP 1 million on landscaping and other up grading expenses will also help. Reading these future changes in not a science, it is more of an art. I have years of experience in making these assessments, and if I can walk around on the ground, I usually get it right. But I did not do the walk in this case, and of course it will take months and years to see if the gentrification really happens." "The Church is a monstrosity." (Beauty, or the lack of it may be in the eye of the beholder. The Church of St. Mary and St Joseph is a Grade II listed church, prized as an example of the work of architect Adrian Gilbert Scott. Like you, I would prefer a church by Thomas Hawksmore. But this one is meant to be very nice from the inside, and would look far better if/when it is cleaned up, and the landscaping is improved. Fortunately, the flat I choose was a top floor flat, looking across the top of the church, so it would be a small but important part of the view, rather than completely dominating it.) I do appreciate the questions, but am disappointed that you seem to have not bothered to at least skim the many hours of research that has already been put into developing this thread. But thanks for the questions whether you looked at the prior posts or not. It does help to clarify the thought process. Part of the reason I did all this work, and then left it posted on GEI, was to show the sort of work that I think a person should do on a large property investment before they invest 100,000's of Pounds. As someone once said, many people will invest 5 years or 10 years worth of income in a property without doing as much work as they do in deciding what stereo system to buy. I think it would be great if others would do research like this on a property investment, and then post the results oin GEI/GPC. What a wonderful resource this website would become !

EXCERPT - The Wisdom of Staying Put Donnell says the economic backdrop is scaring off both buyers and sellers. By his calculations, 14m households could afford to move, or would not struggle to get a mortgage – 8m own their home without a mortgage, 6m have a mortgage of less than 50% loan to value. But the cost of moving is prohibitive. "Mortgage application fees are higher, the cost of new mortgages is often higher, there are the direct costs of moving like stamp duty and people tend to spend money on a new home as well," he says. "Staying put is the obvious thing to do."

Haha. 1/2 is more likely than one - In fact, I might only buy with a partner. And 0 is more likely than 2-10. The UK is at the wrong point in the 18 year cycle to think about getting aggressive. If there was some cost efficient way of buying this property and shorting the index, I would probably do it. But alas...

Az, That's not accurate, it is misleading. Perhaps I was not clear. I have not bought a property yet. I have "gambled" something like the average day's trading profits (that I actually made over the last two weeks) on a "holding deposit" that was good for over a month while I analyzed the merits of an interesting-looking investment. At one level, this was a very cheap Call option. If I don't buy, I lose very little. I know a bargain-priced option when I see one. If I do buy, I will have an investment which looks better positioned (to do okay in a mild downtuirn) than anything London-based I have seen come through here (to HK) over the past 2-3 years. A quick drop of over 10-15% would make it look like a mistake. But even then , I will not know until I see how it comes through a property slide, whether it was a genuine mistake or not. In fact, my latest idea is to buy with the idea of flipping in the Spring, and the prospects of that look good, if the London markets holds up reasonably well. I bought 10 properties in HK in 2007-8. At first, they ran up in price, and then they got hit with a big drop in late 2008. Ultimately, I sold nine of them, each one at a profit. Some here may think it is odd that a self-confessed Bear would consider buying at all. I look at it differently. When I see a Bear buying (someone like Merryn at Moneyweek), I ask myself: Might he/she have spotted a genuine bargain? Does anyone know if Merryn SW is happy with her purchase of a few years ago? When a long term Bear or Bull does something out of character, there is often an interesting reason.

Az, That's not accurate, it is misleading. Perhaps I was not clear. I have not bought a property yet. I have "gambled" something like the average day's trading profits (that I actually made over the last two weeks) on a "holding deposit" that was good for over a month while I analyzed the merits of an interesting-looking investment. At one level, this was a very cheap Call option. If I don't buy, I lose very little. I know a bargain-priced option when I see one. If I do buy, I will have an investment which looks better positioned (to do okay in a mild downtuirn) than anything London-based I have seen come through here over the past 2-3 years. A quick drop of more than 10-15% would make it look like a mistake. But even then , I will not know until I see how it comes through a property slide, whether it was a genuine mistake or not. In fact, my latest idea is to buy with the idea of flipping in the Spring, and the prospects of that look good, if the London markets holds up reasonably well. I bought 10 properties in HK in 2007-8. At first, they ran up in price, and then they got hit with a big drop in late 2008. Ultimately, I sold nine of them, each one at a profit. Some here may think it is odd that a self-confessed Bear would consider buying at all. I look at it differently. When I see a Bear buying (someone like Merryn at Moneyweek), I ask myself: Might he/she have spotted a genuine bargain? Does anyone know if Merryn SW is happy with her purchase of a few years ago? When a long term Bear or Bull does something out of character, there is often an interesting reason.

Possible forecast for FTSE, showing cyclical low point about 2020 (post #65:BigBearMkt?)

JUST ONE YEAR AGO, I was banned on HPC. Since then... COMPARISON == : ( HPC ) / ( GEI ) Alexa Traffic Rank : 27,303 : 186,889 Traffic Rank in GB : ==909 : = 9,150 Sites Linking In .. : ==456 : === 83 HPC has 138 Reviews (ave. 3.5 stars) GEI has 003 Reviews (ave. 5.0 stars) GEI is gaining on HPC, if only slowly, as HPC fades a bit THANKS FOR THE POSTS, everyone !

LOL ==== JUST ONE YEAR AGO, I was banned on HPC. Since then... COMPARISON == : ( HPC ) / ( GEI ) Alexa Traffic Rank : 27,303 : 186,889 Traffic Rank in GB : ==909 : = 9,150 Sites Linking In .. : ==456 : === 83 HPC has 138 Reviews (ave. 3.5 stars) GEI has 003 Reviews (ave. 5.0 stars) GEI is gaining on HPC, if only slowly, as HPC fades a bit THANKS FOR THE POSTS, everyone !

COMPARISON == : ( HPC ) / ( GEI ) Alexa Traffic Rank : 27,303 : 186,889 Traffic Rank in GB : ==909 : = 9,150 Sites Linking In .. : ==456 : === 83 HPC has 138 Reviews (ave. 3.5 stars) GEI has 003 Reviews (ave. 5.0 stars) GEI is gaining on HPC, if only slowly, as HPC fades a bit THANKS FOR THE POSTS, everyone !

If you have looked for weeks, now may be a good time to revisit the Beating Buy&Hold spreadsheet:

I phoned up friends, and asked them to talk me out of it, and they wound up being intrigued by the possibilities. I think it will be a "quite okay investment" if prices drop only 10-15%, and ditto with rents. But if the slide is more than that, it might be a mistake. (A mistake that I can afford to make, especially if I can see myself living in the UK in the next 2-3 years, which is uncertain.) I may or may not go ahead, on my own, or with a partner. But given the news background of the last 2-3 weeks, it looks less likely.

SHKP is one of the "Big Three" - I had missed this report Sun Hung Kai raises bar on profit records Karen Ha .. Friday, September 16, 2011 Sun Hung Kai Properties (0016) saw underlying profit for the 12 months ended June 30 hit a record high of HK$21.48 billion, up 55 percent year- on-year. The figure beat the highest market forecast of HK$20.05 billion. Net profit during the period rose 60 percent to HK$48.1 billion - also a record high. Revenue jumped 88 percent to HK$62.55 billion. Earnings per share was HK$8.36. The board proposed a final dividend of HK$2.40 per share, up from HK$1.80 a year ago. Property sales rose 152 percent from a year ago to HK$16.65 billion. "Effects from the government's cooling measures are seen, and has almost got rid of all the speculative activities," vice chairman Thomas Kwok Ping-kwong said. "The market is now mainly driven by end-users and long-term investors. I am confident that the property market next year is still positive, riding on continuous inflationary pressure, the increasing per capita income, and low interest rates." However, Sun Hung Kai also noted the result was helped by the economic environment, and such figures "may not be the norm" for the company. The developer said it will put around 3,000 units on the market in the next nine months, aiming to raise around HK$28 billion. Since July, the developer has generated HK$14 billion -HK$15 billion from sales at Imperial Cullinan*, a luxury project atop the Olympic MTR station. The annual result may look good, but some analysts remain concerned. "The outlook is uncertain in terms of what's next after 2012. It seems that they will have to do more work as buyers' sentiment is relatively weak, and even deteriorating. " It is a challenging environment [for the developer] to achieve the same earnings next year," said Lee Wee-liat, property analyst at Samsung Securities. Sun Hung Kai shares closed up 1.48 percent at HK$102.40. /source: http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_detail.asp?pp_cat=1&art_id=115231&sid=33740921&con_type=1 *Long Xi video: In some ways, this is misleading about the actual location and the views. But in one way it may be accurate: owners might start off underwater, before soaring - one hopes. BTW, the location is not "atop Olympic MTR", it is sandwiched between One Silver Sea, and The Long Beach - which have better views, and maybe lower prices. (HK-16) Earnings- : HK$21.48 billion, up 55 percent Sh. Price : $90.00 Shares OS : 2,467 Mn. Mkt.Cap.. : HK$222.0 billion PE Ratio. : 10.34 === HK16=/ Sun HKP : $90.00 : 147.0 - 38.8% : $4.797 : 5.33% : 10.3 : -p#13

Probably not Does anyone know what Mortgage rates are in Greece, Spain, or Portugal ?

GOOD, BAD, or UGLY? / Posts from AX =================== Posted by Oly88 Indeed! Good timing! Next time I shall listen to you! By the way, do you think the HS Index will go down again, as most people say? Posted by jaswells I must admit I am quite shocked by that most recent data from centadata: http://hk.centadata.com/cci/cci_e.htm These transactions take us up to the 2nd October. This is a significant upward momentum in price. Clearly Hong Kong property prices are presently detached from the negativity evident in other asset markets. Posted by Oly88 You beat me on this Yes, property prices keep going up Posted by jaswells The future is so bright for future generations of HKongers. They can all buy a flat and become multimillionaires too Posted by OffThePeak Will the HS Index fall again? Watch the volume. If it powers thru HSI-20,000 on high volume, then chances are we will get a multi-week, or multi-month rally, If it begins to falter as it approaches 20,000 (or 21,000 or some higher figure) on light volume, then that will be a sign that it is a brief rally, to be followed by further declines. At this point, I will bet on a lower HSI : probably 15,000 or lower - in 2012. But as it happens, I will watch volume, and let the market tell me what it wants to do.

Several things: + A decent price: £367 per square foot + High expected yield: 6.5%+ Gross, 5.2%+ Net + Proximity to jobs and prospective tenants: 10-12 minutes walk from Canary Wharf + Beneficiary of big infrastucture spending: Olympics, Crossrail + The breakthrough in gentrificattion represented by the NFQ development + The flat I reserved was a trophy (best views, two balconies) without an extra-special price If I don't go ahead, I may regret it one day, but it is hard for me to overcome all the negative fundamentals that I see coming. If you are willing to live with some possible security risk in living in a still-gentrifying area, you should have a look in the immediate proximity. /see: NFQ area: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=15306