drbubb

Council tax blow for second-home owners Owners of second homes are to lose council tax discounts in a major shake-up to be announced by ministers. Local authorities will be told they can abolish the rebate, which can mean council tax on second homes is as much as 50 per cent lower than for main residences. Ministers say the proposal will benefit hard-pressed middle-income families - but it will be unpopular with second-home owners. It will form the centrepiece of a series reforms which ministers say if adopted, would allow a cut in council tax bills for most people. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/8857774/Council-tax-blow-for-second-home-owners.html

They did their checking some time ago, months before this new data came out. What was the date of that article that you quoted? Go back and check. (I thought you wanted to discuss this elsewhere - let's go there: To the Volcano and Earthquakes thread.) Note: I have already posted a "new" article from this month, which cites a scientific paper suggesting that we are into a new cycle of higher Earthquake activity, like the 1950's and 1960's

I think these last two years of data could be rather important. Not only is this "about quakes", it could bring a breakthrough in Thinking Too ! If you want to discuss the potential Breakthrough this represents, let's discuss it on the relevant thread, if you just want to talk about the Earthquake data, we can discuss it on the Volcanoes and Quakes thread. The place to STOP discussing it is on DrBubb's Diary

I told JD that he was "caught with his pants down", and should find the prior data, or accept what we have (I want to check for a cycle) He responded... LOL The so-called experts made their comments in mid-2010 or earlier. We now have all of 2010 and 10 months of 2011 data - and these past two years show the breakout. I spotted the possible breakout about one year ago, and commented on it then, then have been slow to realose that something new is afoot. How many more months or years will it take for "them" to wake up? We shall see. But you have been shown the data now - Why do you have to do on denying it? As I said, even if there were over 20 large quakes in prior years, I want to see the data, because I believe a cycle may be at work, and it will be interesting to see the harmonics. Would the cycle peak likely come in 2012 or later ?

I agree completely. A statistically-significant data set is now staring us in the face! But some so-called scientists still choose to ignore it. If I make preparations, and nothing dire has happened, have I really lost anything? But if I fail to prepare, and a quake or tsunami hits, I am far worse off, and maybe my life, and the lives of my family are endangered. It is funny to see the so-called scientist stick his head in the sand, and call me "desperate" for sharing the facts... I am hardly desperate, merely seeking to share the facts where relevant. I cannot analyse data that I do not have. The only data provided by USGS is from 1980. Who knows on what basis any previous data might have been prepared. YOU stated that there was not significant change in Quake activity, but the 2010 and 2011 data shows something different. Deaths (in 2010), 6-6.9 and 7-7.9 quakes (for both 2010 and 2011) were more than two standard deviations away from the Mean. This meets a test of significance. If you can find GOOD data from before 1980 from a reliable and consistent source, I will happily look at it. Meantime, you should apologise for your negative comments. The Data was staring you in the face and you did not bother to look at it. Some Truth-seeker you are ! Just a prejudiced non-observer. Being in denial of the data, seem so!

Don't rule out any of those. But I think the rate rise is the most likely, and maybe sooner than you think. Despite the relief rally this week, I don't think more debt will solve the debt crisis, and the chickens will soon "come home to roost."

A BREAKOUT IN EARTHQUAKE OCCURANCES ! Here's the data: JD, Clearly, you are a disrupter rather than a Truth-Seeker. You haven't bothered to look at the data as closely as I have. The only detailed data we have is annually since 1980, and it totally backs up everything that I have been saying. Here's a chart And here's a Table giving a statistical summary: Period==== =Deaths :6.-6.9 :7.-7.9 :8-9.9 ::7.-9.9 Ave:'80-11 030,947 : 129.2 : 13.21 : 0.79 :: 13.99 : Mean, 21 years STD:'80-11 067,644 : 30.21 : 03.86 : 0.89 :: 04.01 : Standard Dev. +1 x StDev 098,591 : 159.4 : 17.07 : 1.68 :: 18.00 +2 x StDev 166,235 : 189.6 : 20.92 : 2.58 :: 22.01 === === Year: 2010 320,129 : 150.0 : 22.00 : 1.00 :: 23.00 Yr.:2011E* 025,636 : 198.0 : 21.60 : 1.20 :: 22.80 *2011E= (The Estimate for 2011, is 10 months x 12/10 ) You will see that data for both 2010, and 2011-Estimated is beyond two Standard Deviations away from the Mean. This is statistically significant, according to my partner, who studied statistics as part of her Oxford Phd, though she says: "I would prefer to have more data." We may need to wait a few more years to satisfy her. As you know, I never said the World would end, but some did think we are headed into a period which will be : "The End of the World as we know it" and a new consciousness.

Interest rates have fallen some way in the last year or so

Winners and losers as Hong Kong rents scale new heights Oct 27, 2011 .. By George Chen When you walk around Hong Kong’s Central commercial and business district these days, you may notice a number of stores are holding “removal sales”, which means they can no longer remain in the same location. The reason? In most cases, just blame soaring rents. Many analysts have forecast declines in residential and commercial property prices in Hong Kong for next year, although at a stable pace rather than a sharp drop. This may be true for some suburban areas where purchase options are more plentiful than those in downtown areas, but until that happens, prices are likely to keep rising, at least for the rest of the year. A couple of years ago, mobile phone industry leader Nokia took a moderately sized space on Russell Road in Causeway Bay just opposite Times Square, one of the busiest shopping districts in Asia, for its flagship store in Hong Kong. Local media said the store used to be one of Nokia’s busiest in Asia, thanks to mainland Chinese travelers. But the good old days are going to end soon. The Hong Kong Economic Times reported on October 27 that British luxury brand Burberry had signed a new lease with the owner of a site currently occupied by Nokia. Burberry is said to have agreed to pay HK $6.5 million (about US $836,600) per month for the two-floor 5,200 square foot space,versus the HK $1.8 million that Nokia is paying. When the news came out, the reaction from the market was quite naturally, “Wow”. One reader on Sina Weibo, China’s most popular micro-blogging service, wondered: “How many coats and bags will Burberry need to sell to cover the monthly rent?” In Hong Kong, a coat or bag at Burberry usually sells for about HK $10,000-15,000. You can do your own calculations. /more: http://blogs.reuters.com/george-chen/2011/10/27/winners-and-losers-as-hong-kong-rents-scale-new-heights/

Developers cash in on luxury Solid demand for Marinella and rebound in stock market encourages property firms to raise prices and go for early releases in high-end market Sandy Li Oct 26, 2011 Buoyed by solid buyer demand for a luxury development in Aberdeen, and a rebound in the stock market, a number of developers hope to cash in on improved market sentiment by launching pricey projects. Developer K Wah International has indicated it will raise prices for its luxury residential development, Marinella, in Sham Wan, Aberdeen, after selling 210 of the 255 flats released this month in the first phase of sales at an average price of HK$20,000 per square foot. Encouraged by that response, Sun Hung Kai Properties (SEHK: 0016) announced it would release 50 flats for sale at The Wings, above the Tseung Kwan O MTR station, at an average price of HK$12,698 per square foot. A 2,560 sq ft flat with rooftop, private pool and two car parking spaces will be offered at HK$51.2 million, or HK$20,000 per square foot. The prices at The Wings are pitched above those of deals completed at The Waterfront in Kowloon Station at an average price of HK$11,111 per square foot. They are also priced higher than those of five Taikoo Shing flats sold last week, which fetched an average of HK$9,641 per square feet. SHKP says the flats will be put on sale as early as tomorrow. Sino Land will today release 58 homes at One Mayfair in Kowloon Tong - a traditional luxury address - at prices that will range between HK$15,686 and HK$20,808 per square foot, with flats priced between HK$21.2 million and HK$45 million. Yesterday, the developer released an additional three homes - two with gardens and one with a roof garden and ranging in size from 1,607 square feet to 2,436 square feet - priced at between HK$27,600 and HK$29,380 per square foot. The 2,436 sq ft flat with 1,333 sq ft roof garden commands the highest price per square foot of the three, and costs HK$71.56 million. Wing Tai Properties is stepping up marketing of its luxury development at 9 Warren Street in Tai Hang, agents said. "To take advantage of the improved atmosphere, more developers will release their luxury developments in coming weeks. The strong sales outcome at Kowloon Tong and Tseung Kwan O will further boost the prospects of the luxury residential sector," said Sammy Po Siu-ming, a director at estate agency Midland Realty. Also boosting the confidence of developers who are about to release their luxury projects is the performance of the Hong Kong stock market. After a sustained fall that took the benchmark Hang Seng Index to a low of 17,983 points last Thursday, the index had rebounded to 18,968.2 points by the close yesterday. But market sentiment remained cautious, said Po, and the reaction to the release of the two latest luxury projects was not likely to be as positive as that for new mass-housing projects, which attracted hundreds of buyers on their launch day. "There won't be a big volume of sales, as most of these flats cost more than HK$20 million," he said. While there were many cash-rich buyers who did not need to raise mortgages, the limits on home loans could weigh on sales, said Po. The maximum loan-to-value ratio for mortgages on properties costing HK$10 million or more was lowered from 60 per cent to 50 per cent in June. Nonetheless, SHKP had pitched The Wings at prices close to those being paid at nearby Kowloon Station, indicating that it was confident about the attractions of its brand name and the quality of the project, Po said. "It aims to reinvent The Wings as another Cullinan at Tseung Kwan O, but offering units at half of what it achieved at Kowloon Station." The average launch price at The Wings is 47 per cent lower than the HK$24,300 per square foot for which properties in The Cullinan at Kowloon Station sell on average. The Wings, comprising 1,028 flats, is part of an integrated development that includes two hotels - a Crowne Plaza and a Holiday Inn Express - grade A offices and a shopping mall. Lee Wee Liat, regional head of property research at Samsung Securities, noted SHKP's strategy was to launch in "reverse order". "They put out the most expensive units first and then gradually sell those units at lower prices. They think it will be much easier to sell the higher-end units as they are still bullish on the luxury sector while cautious on the mid- to mass market segment," he said. Cheung Kong (Holdings) (SEHK: 0001) said it might release the remaining three-bedroom flats at La Splendeur in Tseung Kwan O over the weekend. A K Wah spokesman said that about 30 per cent of the Marinella buyers were mainlanders. Derek Lau, a sales director for Centaline Property Agency's southwestern district, said flats at Marinella were being offered at about 13 per cent less than the HK$23,000 per square foot the market had expected. "Most buyers will hold for long-term investment or leasing to bet on a further increase in prices. Investors account for 50 per cent of buyers," he said. Lau said sales in the secondary market in the district had dropped as much as 30 per cent, as market attention turned to the primary market whenever a new development was released for sale. ==== ==== SHOWFLATS: The Wings / SHKP : http://www.gohome.com.hk/new-property/the-wings/ad-10382/en/ MayfairOne/ Sino : http://onemayfair.com.hk/#/en/gallery - 8202-5633 Marinella / ????? : http://www.gohome.com.hk/new-property/Marinella/ad-10366/en/ ============

Index : to10/23: %PrWk : %Previous Month CCLI : $ 98.16 : - 0.37% : - 1.06 % MMI : $ 94.60 : - 0.44% : - 1.30 % ==== H. K. : 107.48 : - 0.69% : - 2.23 % KLN. : $93.27 : - 0.07% : - 1.76 % NT- e : $92.51 : +0.14% : +0.25 % NT-w : $77.37 : - 1.05% : - 0.10 % ==== (MidL) xx,xxx Robin : 14,266 : ====== : - 0.08 % : Robinson Place Tregu.: 17,845 : ====== : - 0.08 % : Tregunter DynCt : 22,049 : ====== : - 0.08 % : Dynasty Court Clo.Ct : 17,060 : ====== : - 0.08 % : Cloverly Court ==== (WestK) xx,xxx Arch. : 21,532 : ====== : +5.93 % : The Arch Sorr. : 15,884 : ====== : - 2.99 % : Sorrento WtrF : 13,617 : ====== : - 0.08 % : The Waterfront PkAC : 10,017 : ====== : - 3.99 % : Park Ave./ Cent. Park IsHV : $9,170 : ====== : - 0.68 % : Island Harborview

Welcome Patito. Why not jump in and post, or even start a thread.

I thought you might need reminding (haha)

Summary and conclusions In conclusion, I have argued that the shipping industry is being driven along by the globalization era initiated in 1944 at Bretton Woods. This exciting and positive process is far from over, with many regions of the world still a very long way from achieving economic prosperity. So far roughly one billion people have achieved high living standards, but there are another 3 billion waiting to join them. Only a great optimist could regard the next stage of globalization as one of which will be achieved smoothly and without friction, but there is a job to be done and I am certain sea transport will play a major part in future development of the global economy . However I have also argued that globalization has followed a deeply cyclical path which has made running a shipping business both difficult and risky. The great upswing during the 1950s and 1960s reached a peak in 1973 and moved into a downswing which lasted into the 1990s. Since 1997 the industry has been on an upswing, and arguably reached a peak in 2008, though the nature of these developments is such that there could easily be another way of growth ahead of us – in such a volatile environment the future is never certain. Whatever may happen to demand, the shipping industry now has a supply-side demographic which is likely to generate far more shipping capacity than is needed to meet any plausible surge in sea transport demand in the next few years. So I think we must expect tough times ahead with more ships than cargoes. Finally I hope I have demonstrated that these cycles, whatever form they take, are an essential part of the globalization process. They are always with us, and we must make the best of them. Good luck on the voyage! Martin Stopford http://www.clarksons.net/archive/research/freestuff/RINA%20President's%20Invitation%20Lecture%2011%20Nov%202009.pdf

PROJECT MOCKINGBIRD? - Threatened by the Web ? Did you like the film, Network ? If so, you may like this podcast which talks about how a Global power elite took over the media, and used it to distort reality. Until recently, the Reality that "The 1%" wanted you to believe was the only reality you got to hear. Now we have the Internet, and an alternative view of reality is leaking out. 281: The One Percent Narrative - October 26, 2011 MP3 : http://c-realmpodcast.podomatic.com/enclosure/2011-10-26T06_20_22-07_00.mp3 KMO turns the first half of this week's C-Realm Podcast over to rational UFO researcher, Larry Lowe, who weaves together clips from the movie Network, a clip from last week's episode, and historical information about Project Mockingbird to demonstrate how the CIA and corporate propagandists manage the opinions of the many for the benefit of the few. Later in the episode, Tim Bennett, creator of the film What a Way to Go: Life at the End of Empire, talks about the difficult process of grappling with marginalized topics and fringe ideas. Both Tim and his partner Sally Erickson will be presenters at the upcoming Local Futures conference. Jay Smooth describes how the OWS movement is outing the corporate "ringers," and KMO concludes with a reading from a recent blog post by Matt Tiabbi about the most recent Corporate Media strategy to discredit the OWS movement. Music by Deep 1 and Rhiannon Giddens

David talking about the infamous Project Looking Glass and the run up to 2012... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EqKVPxCg8dQ

YES. Do each of those things - if they feel right. Because no one really knows for certain what lies ahead. (Except for the Buy-and-Hold purists, of course.)

Sold the Hang Lung/HK-101 shares at $27.25 This global rally is now showing low volume, and may be "running out of gas" Hang Seng Property Index : HSP:IND ========= 09/30/11: - 3.195% / $20,935 HKD 10/14/11: - 1.385% / $23,679 HKD 10/24/11: + 0.520% / $23,844 HKD The cash that I took out of property shares was parked in Gold/HK2840 last week at: $1220-1229 (and HK3081 at $ 40.20 and HK766 at $11.6-11.9) == == Today: HK2840 : 1252.0 + 2.00 HK3081 : $ 41.20 + 0.10 HK0766 : $ 00.12 - .005

That's not quite accurate. As an American, I must pay higher taxes on my short term gains (of less than one year), and I reluctantly accept this burden, because I think everyone should have an incentive to hold for longer term periods, not just private investors in America. When we first started these "debates" many months ago, I suggested to you that you should focus your antagonism against traders on getting a more fair, and long-term oriented tax policy. That might encourage more productive investing.

TRADING: WHAT VALUE ? / New thread: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=15485 (6) Maybe you misunderstand me? First, I do WARN people at the start of my "Beating B&H thread": Second, I think you have not yet taken on board the VERY LOW RISK nature of most of the trades that I am using on the Beating B&H thread. Essentially they are of two main types: + 1/ "Swapping out" of Silver or SLV after a run-up (and best of all, after a parabolic move up) into a similar sized position consisting of in-the-money Calls plus Cash. + 2/ "Buying insurance", by purchasing SLV puts, or calls on ZLV, in a size only to protect profits they have already made. What I am NOT DOING is using options to take highly geared bets - When I Buy Calls, I generally have sufficient Cash in the account to exercise the option, so the main purpose is the LIMIT PRICE RISK so if the Silver price drops then I have less exposure to the downside. If less-experienced traders get their minds around these techniques, and use them in a careful and disciplined way, ONLY TO PROTECT PROFITS that they have already made, then they will NEVER BLOW UP. At worst, they will give away some of their profits.

There's some truth in that. The High Frequency guys are trying to create an advantage for themselves, by having quicker trigger fingers and more elaborate computer-driven trading. Is that fair? I think they add little to the market, and try to extract something unfairly. I would force them to trade differently, and maybe offer something, like holding firm on their prices or paying something to cancel trades, to help "level the playing field." This is a matter of some urgency, else these sorts of traders will force out the old fashioned traders and investors, and start feeding on themselves. I am obviously playing a very different game, and trying to "earn my edge" through better research and/or better reading of technical signals, while sharing some of my own perceptions with others interested enough to visit this website. Here's someone I admire, and I like the way he looks at markets: “Making money is a zero-sum game, so to be successful you have to be willing to stand apart from the crowd,” Dalio says. “And you have to be right.” The founder was right often enough during and after the worst financial crisis in decades starting in 2008, helping to cement his reputation as a leader in his industry. Three Bridgewater hedge funds placed among the 100 top-performing large funds in Bloomberg Markets’ annual ranking in February, including its flagship, Pure Alpha II. The No. 3 fund posted a 38 percent return for the 10-month period through October 2010. INTERVIEW: http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/11957 Dalio’s influence spreads beyond his elite industry. He and his colleagues regularly brief central bankers, as well as pensions and sovereign-wealth funds, on their outlook. The firm’s newsletter -- Bridgewater Daily Observations -- is required reading for macroeconomic thinkers for its prescient analysis. Economic Power In August 2007, as credit markets were tightening, the newsletter warned, “Hedge funds in general are unlikely to provide much diversification to help protect against poor performance of traditional markets.” The next year, funds lost an average of 19 percent. “You find insights that are different from what you were thinking,” says Hilda Ochoa-Brillembourg, founding president of Strategic Investment Group in Arlington, Virginia, which invests in hedge funds. At its bucolic headquarters in Westport, Connecticut, Bridgewater devotes a great deal of resources to research. The firm’s 1,200 employees -- more than at many midsize investment banks -- help generate the data and analysis that inform bets on macroeconomic trends. In June, researchers tracked the percentage of world gross domestic product generated by Western Europe, the U.S., Africa, China and other markets to the 16th century to show long-term shifts in economic power. 44.8 Percent Return “No one pursues market-based truth more aggressively than Ray,” says Britt Harris, chief investment officer of the Teacher Retirement System of Texas. /more: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-07/dalio-returns-25-on-diversified-bets-as-markets-convulse-influential-50.html "What good does trading bring?" What I am doing is not much different that what you as an investor do. Like you, I want to buy at a low price and sell at a high price, and generate a profit. I simply do it over a different time horizon, and rather than "mining excesses" in fundamental valuations, I am mining shifts in psychology when markets shift from excessive pessimism, to excessive optimism - that's something that I believe can be read from charts, once you learn how. "The Service" that I am providing is allowing those who are frightened and want out, to get out at a slightly higher price than if I was not there. And at the high: I am a seller allowing those who feel they should buy, a chance to buy at a lower-than-otherwise price. I provide that price advantage to those who I trade with, whether I am right about the market or not. Is this really very different than the "service" that an investor might provide to the market? But by focusing on psychology-driven swings, I see more opportunities.

For US Citizens who are individual traders , like me, we pay a higher tax on short term profits. But big banks, do not have a two-tiered system, and in fact they pay bonuses out of pre-tax income. Perhaps that needs changing. Here's a Taib-like character in an animation http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A72cc8mM5g

I agree with that. Bankers are over-rewarded for what they do, especially when you consider that when they fail, they get propped up by taxpayers. Here's Taib on this subject: Individual traders, and even most Hedge Funds are a somewhat different matter - If they fail, no one bails them out. No one guarantees me a positive result- I can lose money, even big money, in a bad year. In fact, I can lose everything if I get reckless. That is very different than gambling with depositor funds, only to be beailed out when you lose. On GEI, instead of pretending to be omniscent, and charging big fees, like hedge funds - I give away some of my best ideas for free. What do I get for this free service - some great comments and posts to read, and a few silly and sometimes idiotic critiques.

Gold has broken the downtrend : Gold chart-46period-MA

LOL I think there would be much less traffic on this website, if the average GEI member thought my research and trading ideas were worthless. I suppose many people never bother to look at DrBubb's Diary, but there are still a goodly number that do, and the Trading oriented ideas on the GEI Trading Team thread have some sort of audience also. I think you are stuck inside some sort of bubble, if you cannot see the value of these ideas. And I reckon your ideas may even be a little dangerous, since they do seem to me to be rather extreme, even Socialistic. This may put you at some sort of extreme end of the spectrum of members and lurkers who visit GEI. You are welcome to start a Poll here, so you can find out how many GEI folk agree with your (rather strange-sounding) view of the world.