drbubb

You are the one who put it in these terms - not me. You post loads and loads of times, that "you should not trade Gold positions", and so when I give actual evidence that I am beating Buy and Hold with some consistency, you accuse me of bragging about the size of an organ. (! ??) What do you want me to do? - Let misinformation pass here without showing evidence to the contrary? Why not just say : "Well done. Keep us informed on your trades, maybe I will follow them sometimes." That's what some others here seem to be doing. (And they sometimes share their ideas of Buying and Selling windows, rather than knocking those who have a system that seems to work.) BTW, I cannot claim to always get it right - only the Buy & Hold brigade is always right with their trading strategy. (haha) "BTW luck has nothing to do with the fact that I have a job, it is due to my ability and hard work." (Do you think it is merely "luck" that I am beating Buy and Hold, and making a decent living as a trader and investor? Unlike some others here, I even give away much of "my product" for free.)

Sure - and I owned Gold and Gold shares through those opportunities, and got far above Gold by owning the shares in the early years of the Up Move. Here are some of the real Gold positions I have been holding since my last Big Buy in late 2010 or early 2011: POSITION=== : =TYPE== : EXPIRY : Strike : No : Value : Cost : Valuation GLD1221A125 CALL GLD 01/21/12 : $125 : 32 : 34.25 : 13.34 : 109,600. : +156.7% GLD1221A130 CALL GLD 01/21/12 : $130 : 30 : 29.50 : 11.32 : $88,500. : +160.6% Obviously, those returns of around +156-160% are miles ahead of what Gold has done. (I am only mentioning these, because some here seem to doubt the results that can be achieved through a "trading approach" - even though I now have many months of Beating B&H in the Silver market.) Sure, some of that was hedged "too early", but I wound up making money on some of those hedges, and I also took profits on some other GLD Calls, selling when Gold was around $1900 per ounce. As an example of a "Hedge" position, I sold Jan $160 Calls as follows: POSITION=== : =TYPE== : EXPIRY : Strike : No : Value : Cost : Valuation GLD1221A160 CALL GLD 01/21/12 : $160 : 5S : $8.07 : 18.64 : -$4,035. : Now I can re-enter new GLD Calls investing those trading and hedging profits.

I am confused by that. Does Mr Newnes think that once a 25% deposit has been put into a property, it should be ignored? What pure idiocy that is ! If you compare renting 100% of a house with paying a mortgage on 75% of a house's cost, of course the house is cheaper. The only fair comparison is to assume one can finance 100% - In other words, the homeowner should imagine he is paying himself the same mortgage rate that he pays the bank.

There's a good Irish joke in there somewhere, But I don't want to poke around in it too much.

Well I am glad you have a "real job" that throws off surplus cash flow - that's lucky for you. Does it throw off enough that you can invest $300K in one go? I hope it does. By contrast, I actually make my money from trading and investing and cannot afford to miss big buying and selling opportunities. I don't get them all right, but I can - and must - beat B&H if I want to stay aheadf of the game.

Please see DrB's Diary for that

The Doctor is going Gold-crazy today. I am backing up the truck here, friends. Valuing the GLD Options and Gold etfs at face, I have bought over $300,000 of Gold today. (And I am not done.) Note that I have bought at something like $320 below Gold's high, and also below Jim Sinclair's $1650 - very near to $1600. And some of the Buying was done with some nice profits I made since I exited my last big Gold-related trades. I have plenty of firepower still left, and plan to buy more if Gold breaks the support near 144d MA. Silver/SLV buys may soon be coming up - Orders are alresdy in on SLV calls/ (Here's a KEY POINT for the B&H purists ! You need to have Cash to buy when the opportunities roll along.)

I agree that the problem is big ... and we have not faced up to it yet as a society. I am actually more optimistic than some here, that we can make progress in meeting the challenges - through measures like a slowing growth rate, a lower birth rate, and a dramatic scaling back of promises and expectations. Unfortunately, the hoped-for progress has not started yet, because the Voters are not yet ready to vote for politicians that tell unpleasant truths. But the days of Truth-telling get ever closer, and I think we may even find that by next November, voters are more willing to cast their vote for the man who will promise them pain - The pain that is needed to begin to really fix America's problems. David Cameron took on some truth-telling after his election. I am hopeful that the next President will take it as a core mission of his new presidency.

CAN THIS WORK ? The system is broken, here's how we fix it. Don't tinker with ringfencing banks. Break them up as the first step to creating an effective local lending infrastructure. This is not pie in the sky. This is what the German banking system looks like. Its local public savings banks have supported small businesses and ordinary people throughout the recession, where big banks run away at the first sign of trouble. No annual pantomime of Project Merlin is required for our industrial competitors. Don't create new money just to feather-bed bankers and enrich the wealthy. Create new money to create new jobs and new wealth. Use quantitative easing directly to fund the renewal of our infrastructure, to build the new green economy, eradicate fuel poverty, reskill the unemployed and tackle the climate crisis at the same time. Don't let people become the slaves of distant creditors. It's time to talk of a massive relief of debt. The UK's problem is not really the public deficit that so obsesses the chancellor, but private household debt and the daunting treadmill that awaits a generation of young people burdened by student fees, relentless rents and a housing market that is still in the realms of fantasy. Frankly, The moral hazzard associated with bailing out those who recklkessly paid too much for their homes, while so many others remained prudent, would bother me enormously. The only way that I might support it, was if the amount of loan that was to be "forgiven" to bring the loan-to-value back to 100% were instead swapped into equity. I really think my formula for doing that* is viable and would be popular. But letting these reckless people off scot-free would be a huge, huge mistake. *My Formula: The higher percentage of the loan forgiven, the more equity which will go to the bank. For example, if a Loan is GBP 150K, and the property's value is GBP 100K, then the bank would agree to reduce the loan balance by 33.3%, and in return would get 33.3% of the home's equity, plus a higher rate on what remains. This formula reduces the "moral hazzard", and will also give distressed homeowners a reason not to request a really huge reduction in debt. An alternative might be to give the bank DOUBLE the amount of equity, to the amount their loan is reduced, and then give a market interest rate afterwards.

Hi Roddy, and welcome. I hope you can post something here, similar to the two excellent emails that you have sent me.

NAM CHEONG TENDER AT $11.8 Billion SHKP has won the Nam Cheong Tender at a "lower than expected" price of $11.8 Billion - equiv to HK$4,538 per buildable sf. Estimates had been at HK$13 Billion, or $5,000 psf, with the developer required to share 5% of net profits with the MTR Corp. The 497,297 sf site has a residential gross floor area of 2.31 million sf, allowing for at least 3,313 flats, most of which will have a saleable area of under 538 sf. The site includes a commercial GFA of 297,732 sf, which must include a 10,764 sf kindergarten-cum-child care center. Ultimate sales price is expected to be at least $8,000 psf

I just finished reading a biography of Edgar Cayce (An American Prophet.) It is really excellent. But I did note that he said milk in coffee or tea "is toxic"

Sadly, I cannot buy that. The reason that the global economy is in crisis, is two-fold: + Extreme short-term focus + Lack of discipline, especially amongst politicians The way to fix it, is through facing up to reality, and taking the pain needed to make major adjustments in the way we live. That is not happening, not yet. And I think much more bad news will need to come out before reality is faced, and needed adjustments are made. No amount of rosy thinking is going to change: 1/ That most of society is living beyond its means 2/ People's living arrangements and expectations assume that "things will get better" 3/ Peak oil is real, and the world is running out of cheap oil, and today's living arrangements are nothing like what they will be when the world faces this reality 4/ Water and other commodities will also be scarcer The mainstream media may seem pessimistic to you, but to me, it seems that they are in cloud-kuku-land focused on entertaining the masses, and telling them lies that will keep the current wasteful regime in power. === === === TIME FOR A POLL? http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=15468 I made one after the above postings.

It's been a long time coming, but a good buy window may arrive soon In fact, I did some buying today, But that was mainly related to shorts from last week, at a higher level.

... from the AX thread... Bing2. You said, "however, remember in 2008 when lehman collapsed? hong kong also had very solid internal property condition just like today's. but the market collapsed for 30% because of external problem from wall street meltdown. " (Off The Peak replies): Memories are short here ! There are important differences between now and the market in 2008 prior to the collapse. They say that rents are a "lagging indicator", but that was not the case in 2008. Rents began to sag early in the year, while property prices held up (much as they are doing now.) In mid-2008, we owned multiple flats in Caribbean Coast Tung Chung. About the time of the Lehmans collapse, one of the agents was talking to me about the rental market, and he let slip that there were 300 vacant 3BR flats in CC. I must have turned white because he suddenly stopped talking. I then asked him, what was a normal number of vacant flats. He said, "usually about 100." I knew at that point that the market was in for some very tough times. Within a few weeks, banks started cutting their valuations, and tightening their lending criteria. And Centaline's index started falling at 1-2% (or more!) per week. I hadn't lived in HK during a downturn before, so such a rapid descent was rather shocking - a 1% per month drop is a big deal in countries like the UK or the UK. The rapid decline last only about 10-12 weeks, but it truly cleaned out the market. Does anyone here think we are set for that? The only thing that I think could do it would be a sharp jump in rates. Instead, I think there is some possibility that ratesmay come lower as we head into next year. By then, banks may find they have to compete for business and the spread widening that they have tried to make stick may start to fade. This seems to be a seasonal pattern.

Asking Prices and Inflation Market expectations are for a seasonal decline in pricing and activity over the coming months. UK property sales are slow in most regions: both typical and average times on market are longer than in October last year. By way of contrast the current stock of property for sale is essentially static year on year. Consequently, asking prices continue to suffer downward pressure. In September, sellers cut UK asking prices by a total of £1.4 billion pounds. Whilst nominal home prices have been losing ground very slowly over the last 3 years, inflation continues to severely erode capital invested in property. Comparing ONS August figures and the YoY change in asking prices for the same month shows that asking prices continue to fall, in real terms, by 7.1% per year relative to the RPI (ex. housing). The HAPI for England and Wales now stands at 97.4 [May04 = 100]. THAT MAKES SENSE Rising price of "essentials" (food, energy) at a time when incomes are stagnant, leaves less money for building a deposit, and for future mortgage payments. This puts a lie to that hoary old chestnut that house prices rise with inflation. Wrong, wrong, wrong. You need falling rates and/or rising incomes to push up home prices. This looks unlikely at the moment.

MORE QUASI-"science" : Energy for the future http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9R1PwrKlH_w

I would suggest he is not paying attention... and observing what is happening to stock prices and considering the knock-on effect on precious metals markets Typical for a myopic Precious metals bug, operating on a few brain cells. ( Haha )

Hong Kong’s property-hoarding problem Commentary: Hong Kong ‘occupied’ by absent landlordsStories You Might Like HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — As Hong Kong’s chief executive delivered his farewell policy address last week, revelations about the extent of apartments lying empty in the territory grabbed the headlines, rather than a new subsidized-housing initiative. Property stocks rallied on news that Donald Tsang said he would only be tinkering with the red-hot property market by restarting the suspended subsidized-home ownership program. The fundamentals of property developers also got a fillip, as numbers contained in the address suggested that buying of apartments for investment now appears to easily outnumber the supply of all newly built apartments in Hong Kong. This means worries about affordability, a potential recession in Hong Kong or even stricter mortgage rules can be ignored — the property market, it seems, is driven by investors who are so wealthy they don’t even bother to rent out their apartments. To arrive at this assessment, you simply have to follow the numbers revealed in recent policy speeches. Last week, after Tsang disclosed the number of apartments and households in Hong Kong, the data showed there were now 250,000 apartments uninhabited. The rate at which unused apartments have been growing is particularly eye-catching, and they now appear to be completely swamping new supply. Comparable government figures from the end of 2009 show there were effectively 210,000 uninhabited units. In little over a year and a half, this number has grown by 40,000. It also dwarfs Hong Kong’s new supply, which Daiwa Securities calculated at only 13,405 residential units in 2010. This even calls into question the government’s target of making available 20,000 units on average per year. On recent trends, this would not even keep up with the demand for property investment. Perhaps not surprisingly, this period coincides with property and rental prices skyrocketing in Hong Kong. Prices are up around 70% since the Lehman crisis, and the majority of private residential tenants are facing upwards of 50% rental increases. This revelation on empty apartments is likely to again put the scale of property purchases in Hong Kong by mainland Chinese in the spotlight. The wasteful habit of leaving units lying empty coincides with a recent wave of mainland buying. One explanation is that cultural factors are at play, whereby mainlanders consider that once an apartment has been lived in, it is no longer new and thereby less desirable. Others suggest the main motivation for this mainland buying in Hong Kong is primarily to get money discreetly offshore, rather than maximizing the value of the investment. But there are also other policy factors driving money into Hong Kong. As the Chinese government has banned the purchase of multiple homes on the mainland to quell its own overheating property market, one unintended consequence is buying switches to Hong Kong, where there are no such restrictions. /more: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/hong-kongs-property-hoarding-problem-2011-10-16?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xq7cQ7ZT2e4 Coast To Coast AM - 13.10.2011 Debate: Science vs. Spiriuality On Thursday's show, Caltech physicist Leonard Mlodinow ...and spiritual leader Deepak Chopra faced off in a passionate but respectful debate, addressing some of the most fundamental questions that have intrigued hu..

No wonder the inhabitants get up to past-times like... Extreme Cycling. (they may become brilliant at it, or die trying, which would take them elsewhere.) Who wants a "Walkable community" when you can cycle like this: http://www.youtube.com/watch_popup?v=Cj6ho1-G6tw&vq=medium

Actually, Tallim - That's the "other Greenville" - the (smaller) one in North Carolina: Greenville, N.C. BMX film to be released "Pro Town: Greenville," a new BMX documentary produced by former Ride BMX editor and photographer Mark Losey, will be debuting the trailer for the film on Monday, November 29, with a worldwide premiere on January 7, 2011 to follow. The film, a documentary featuring interviews with BMX pros in the Greenville, N.C. area, depicts how the town grew into a BMX mecca for pros throughout the world. ==== ==== The one I favor is in SOUTH Carolina: SC It has perhaps "The Best Main Street" in America, and is a good place to start a new business. More Here: "Golden South" thread: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=14703

West Kowloon is still outperforming WK is still at or above the level of early June, when the Centaline Index peaked. (This chart shows sales in the secondary market.) "Has Mainland investment primarily affected new builds rather than the secondary market in this area?" - W-Up Yes, I think that is right. Some new properties, like Imperial Cullinan, have been effected by one or two "shockingly low" sales from Mainland-based sellers. But the secondary market remains firm, as the chart shows. (Some say that the initial Tower or two at IC were over-priced.)

I "caught the falling knife".... in HK Property Developers Grabbed a profit, and now an awaiting the Retest of the Lows Sep-30: Oct-14: Hang Seng Property Index : 10/14/11: - 1.385% / $23,679 HKD 09/30/11: - 3.195% / $20,935 HKD If the index keeps, rising: + I have "banked" my profit in HK-101 shares + I have property I would consider selling at the right price