drbubb

NEVER EVER ? Lessons for the brain-dead ? "Never ever ever ... sell your Gold !" says Robert Ian on this weekend's Goldseek Radio I think i heard something similar about Silver, right near the top.

Barratt Close: UK:BDEV: 98.50 Change: -0.80 /// chart Open: 98.70 / High: 100.20 / Low: 95.25 Volume: 5,796,207 Percent Change: -0.81% that's well off the low, but still down on the day, and below 100p Probably next week, we will know how "real" the break of support at 100p is going to be. I still think it is a very meaningful break Here's the 3 months chart ... update : 24mos : 5yrs The way I see it: + BDEV broke below the 252d MA this past week + Then on Friday, Barratt rallied back up, and closed just on the 252d MA To me, this looks like a "Kiss it goodbye" move, and if BDEV slides further down next week (and especially if it does that on continued high volume), then the break is confirmed, and my favorite bellwether will be signalling a renewed slide in UK prices. I would then like to see : PSN do the same to confirm the signal.

Since the housing bust began, the average U.S. home has lost better than 70% of its value in gold. It’s dropped nearly 80% since the gold-market found its own floor back in the early spring of 2001. /more http://blogs.forbes.com/greatspeculations/2011/07/27/is-it-time-to-trade-pricey-gold-bars-for-cheap-houses/

Excerpt: "The Discovery of Life on Mars, published in 2008, was the first work to prove that Mars is an inhabited planet. After publishing his landmark paper, Andy founded the Mars Anomaly Research Society." His identification of life forms in various photos, is for me, the LEAST convincing part of his story. I think he has a vivid imagination That's a good point. To generate widespread belief in his claims, he will need proof, or at least strong collaboration Can you provide a link to a description of your car plan

I am anticpating good news for the patient Bears

No icicles... yet. Most of the heat is around transport stations - that's no surprise

Outside London is morphing towards Crash Cruise speed and London may get there soon too, I reckon House prices decline accelerates, as Land Registry shows even London struggling By SIMON LAMBERT .. 28th July 2011 House prices are falling at the fastest annual rate since October 2009, according to Land Registry figures, with even the London property market falling flat. Stand-off: Buyers and sellers are seeing big gaps in their expectations on price Property prices in England and Wales stagnated in June, according to the organisation’s latest report, but the average home is down 2.5% year-on-year. The decline marks the latest stage in a downward trend seen since the post slump mini-boom tailed off in the middle of last year. And even the previously buoyant London market is feeling the squeeze, with average prices dipping by 0.1% in June, the second month in a row in that they have fallen. Read more: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-2019803/Land-Registry-house-prices-decline-accelerates-London-struggles.html#ixzz1TU1cEMiT

You are welcome, Ricky. Dont be afraid to ask questions, and check out the Investor diaries, including my own. But for pure UK based investors, some of the others may be better

This thread: 26,994 Replies 1,999,675 Views Who is going to put it past 2 million views ???

New members are coming across from HPC Is "Bruce Banner" doing all the banning on HPC ?

(2) A BDEV bounce is certainly possible, but I am not expecting that, partly because of that recent Rightmove report. But I cannot rule a bounce out, we need to wait and see what actually happens. And also, wait to see if the 76dMA will cross below the 252dMA, providing a sort of "confirmation." I don;t know how accurate their book values will be. In a falling market, who would buy their land at book value?

(1) True. But I began to back off from that expectation when BDEV broke upwards above resistance - first breaking above a downtrendline, then the 76d MA and finally the 252d MA was broken. I called for a "pause in crash cruise speed", and so we have seen that: Mo.: Rt'mov : London : Hometrack %/ Nt'wide H-oldSA Halif.SA Hal.NSA: HNindex : mom : DelusIdx 2011 J. : : 223,122 : 413,259 : 154,300 - 0.5% / 161,211 = n/a = 164,173 161,470 : £161,341 :- 0.33% :138.3% : F. : : 230,030 : 430,680 : 154,000 - 0.2% / 161,183 = n/a = 162,657 161,680 : £161,432 :+ 0.06% :142.5% : M : : 231,790 : 424,307 : 153,850 - 0.1% / 164,751 = n/a = 162,912 162,151 : £163,451 :+ 1.25% :141.8% : A : : 235,822 : 431,013 : 153,850 +0.0% / 165,609 = n/a = 160,395 162,303 : £163,956 :+ 0.31% :143.8% : M : : 238,874 : 430,936 : 153,700 - 0.1% / 167,208 = n/a = 160,519 162,344 : £164,776 :+ 0.50% :145.0% : J. : : 240,394 : 438,622 : 153,550 - 0.1% / 168,205 = n/a = 163,049 163,642 : £165,924 :+ 0.70% Jl : : 236,597 : 432,641 : ===================================== mom: - 1.58% : - 1.36% : Est.DI: 142.6% / +0.60% := n/a = :+1.58% :+0.80% : + 0.70% And I believe you will find that even when I was expecting crash cruise speed to ccntinue beyond a few months, I was careful to qualify that statement with a caution that Barratt and the other UK builders should be monitored closely. (For some reason, people seem to ignore these important qualifications. I think the accuracy of the Builder Bellwether has been near flawless, which I why I mention it so often.) The chart indicates with a red circle where the bearish forecast required modification: BDEV-chart Circle----- : BDEV price breaks thru 252d-MA Rectangle : 76d-MA crosses 252d-MA, providing confirmation LATEST BDEV signals ========= downline : broke downtrend in Dec.2010 76d-MA : break-above in Dec.2010 252dMA : break-above in Feb.2011 CROSS- : 76d-MA crossed 252dMA in Apr.11 Please note that the BDEV chart NOW looks as if it is about to signal an important breakdown. The above BDEV chart, please the comments from Rightmove and the 1%-plus drop in RM asking prices in July is signalling a probable return to a more serious price slide IMHO - and maybe a new period of crash cruise speed falls. But stay alert and watch BDEV (PSN & BKG, etc), for possible contrary evidence

I have begun to produce an Index for house prices in the UK outside London... ( From the thread entitled: Supply/Demand Law challenged ) No Crash ? It really depends on where you live. (I have just pulled down this data. How it was derived, I will explain later) Do you recall my clear call of a Top in July 2007, on Commodity Watch Radio ? : I forecast "crash cruise speed" in mid-2007, and then became bullish, expecting a Dead Cat Bounce in March 2009. THE REST OF THE UK - what prices look like, when you remove London from the National data: Since 2008, there have been two divergent pathways: London property, which fell for a few months and then recovered to fresh highs thanks to ultra-low interest rates (below the rate of inflation, and the lowest rates in UK history.) Despite the low interest rates, the vast majority of UK homes remain locked into "crash mode" with only a brief pause in 2009-10. Peak : 166,265 - Sep.2007 Low- : 120,616 - Mar.2009 : - 27.5% Rally : 135,331 - Aug.2010 : +12.2% Latest 128,737 - Jun.2011 :: Down from the high : - 22.6% / -GBP 37,528 This certainly looks like an ongoing crash to me. Over 17 months, prices-outside-London retraced only 32.2% of their GBP 45,649 drop. Yes, London is different - but London's day is coming too, I reckon. Meantime, only about 12% of the UK's houses are in London, so the above chart represents reality for about 88% of UK homeowners.

I have begun to produce an Index for house prices in the UK outside London... ( From the thread entitled: Supply/Demand Law challenged ) No Crash ? It really depends on where you live. (I have just pulled down this data. How it was derived, I will explain later) Do you recall my clear call of a Top in July 2007, on Commodity Watch Radio ? : I forecast "crash cruise speed" in mid-2007, and then became bullish, expecting a Dead Cat Bounce in March 2009. THE REST OF THE UK - what prices look like, when you remove London from the National data: Since 2008, there have been two divergent pathways: London property, which fell for a few months and then recovered to fresh highs thanks to ultra-low interest rates (below the rate of inflation, and the lowest rates in UK history.) Despite the low interest rates, the vast majority of UK homes remain locked into "crash mode" with only a brief pause in 2009-10. Peak : 166,265 - Sep.2007 Low- : 120,616 - Mar.2009 : - 27.5% Rally : 135,331 - Aug.2010 : +12.2% Latest 128,737 - Jun.2011 :: Down from the high : - 22.6% / -GBP 37,528 This certainly looks like an ongoing crash to me. Over 17 months, prices-outside-London retraced only 32.2% of their GBP 45,649 drop. Yes, London is different - but London's day is coming too, I reckon. Meantime, only about 12% of the UK's houses are in London, so the above chart represents reality for about 88% of UK homeowners.

LOL : http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=167051 "Daily Express Front Page - a true arsewipe of a paper" It is funny to read the thread, and see the clumsy way in which posters on HPC fumble about with the data - while not wanting to believe it. They seem incapable of working out the monthly average change (+0.43%), and seeing how pathetic it is. They also do not seem to realise that Rightmove's data is the most recent - it is based on asking prices, and therefore can be somewhat forward looking at a downwards inflection point. (I reckon that big cuts in "asking" price are a pretty good indicator of a market headed lower.) Someday someone here may be to benefit by selling property to a HPC flumbler, who thinks prices are still rising, simply because they haven't taken the time to understand the data presented in their tabloid newspapers.

LIMPING IS NOT "SURGING" I had to look twice - since that headline made little sense to me after reading recently in Rightmove that asking prices had fallen by more than 1% in July in both London and throughout the country The later version of the paper - shown above - was no more enlightening... BRITAIN’S housing market is bouncing back with average prices rising by more than £5,000. In a welcome sign that home values are proving to be remarkably resilient in the economic downturn, experts last night said it showed that the “property market is back on the right track”. According to the latest figures, prices have shot up by £30 a day in the first half of the year. And with interest rates set to remain at record lows for possibly three more years, rising values will mean that fewer households will be trapped in negative equity. The cost of the typical three-bedroom semi is now £216,260 – £5,478 higher than January. And the good news is that the buoyant property market is being enjoyed across the country with eight out of 11 regions reporting rises since the beginning of the year. Nicholas Leeming, business development director of property website Zoopla.co.uk, which published the data, said: “The property market is back on the right track with the majority of regions having clawed back some of the ground lost at the end of last year.” The property market is back on the right track Other experts said prices were likely to be stable over the next year with low interest rates and demand for property outstripping supply which is driving the market. Mr Leeming said that London was leading the pack with average prices now hitting their highest levels since January 2009. /more: http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/261168/House-prices-surge-again == == == I don't have any idea of Zoopla's track record, or when or how it surveys and records prices. What they have just reported is a gain of £5,478, from £210,782 to £216,260 – that's +2.60% - since January. I assume that's for January, to July, a six month's period, which means +0.43% a month. Frankly, that's not the sort of gain that I would call "surging," it is more like limping ahead. For January to June, Rightmove reported a £17,272 gain, which was from £223,122 to £240,394, or 7.74%- a proper surge, before reporting the most recent month's £3,797 fall. That's a -1.58% drop for the latest month into July. Does the Express really serve their reader's by reporting in a less careful fashion? The mainstream press does a rather poor job of reporting these figures. They toss out a headline, and never bother to do any analysis of the statistics behind the headlines. And many UK sheeple are stupid enough to simply believe the headlines. They will get what they deserve in the end. And I do not mean healthy profits. (I do hope that readers here appreciate the care I take in collecting various price figures here, and analysing them with greater care than you may find anywhere else. It has helped me to get a sense of how the mainstream press is continually manipulating people, who seem confused by the blizzard of data and thus rely merely on headlines to support whatever emotional position they may be inclined towards.)

Several charts updated on page one Note how the UK cycle is lagging behind the US cycle Idealised 18 1/3-Year U.S. Real Estate Cycle, 1870-1955 TURN: -19th Cent- : ----------20th Century---------- : --21st Cent-- High: 1871 , 1889 , 1908 , 1926 , 1945 , 1964 , 1982 , 2000 , 2019 , Act.: 1871 , 1887 , 1905 , 1925 , 1946 , ???? , ???? , 2005?, 2020?, Low : 1880 , 1898 , 1917 , 1935 , 1954 , 1971 , 1991 , 2009 , 2028 , Act.: 1877 , 1897 , 1917 , 1933 , 1958 , 1975 , 1991 , 2010?

MM, I find this to be fascinating http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yN3i__CUqg4 I wonder if you have any comments on his Time Travel claims, and his description of the technology About 53 minutes in, he speaks about "actual worm-holing"

It is NOT A PARABOLIC MOVE, that's for sure. So even if Gold corrects from here, it is probably just another buying opportunity. If it goes parabolic, then that may kill it off for some months

It is NOT A PARABOLIC MOVE, that's for sure. So even if it corrects from here, it is probably just another buying opportunity. If it goes parabolic, then that may kill it off for some months

The next day's SCMP article was much less negative (3) RISE in home sales continues Market sentiment shows signs of improving, but many analysts expect it to hover around the present level for some time Home sales continue rebounding from a near six-year low a fortnight ago, as property market sentiment showed some signs of improving. Ricacorp: "We are seeing buyers recover their confidence." ======= : secondhand sales July 11-17 : 195 homes, in 50 estates July 03-10 : 153 homes previous - : 146 homes NT : up 50% from 73 to 114. Kowloon +4% from 56 to 58. Island down from 24 to 23. New homes: 62 sold, up from 57. (65% of which were Imperial Cullinan.)

Thanks. Lower prices were needed - an the average flat at OSS has a better view than the average flat at IC, and that is especially true for the "inside" Towers. Only Tower 1 and Tower 8 at IC have good views. MAP SHKP has been using the usual developer trick of "talking up prices" before launch, and then launching at 10-15% less than "expected". I thought the talk of "$20,000 and higher" for Imperial Cullinan was ridiculous, when you can get very nice flats in The Long Beach for $10,000-12,000 psf. LB features a grand and more spacious clubhouse and residents' outdoor park, which in terms of everyday usability is miles better than the cramped affair at Imperial Cullinan, which I think is "over-branded." Here's an earlier article from the original launch of IC: W Kowloon luxury flats test price ceiling Karen Ha .. Monday, June 27, 2011 Flats at a new luxury project in West Kowloon have been priced lower than expected - setting the market abuzz with talk that a price ceiling is in sight. This follows new government measures to curb property prices earlier this month. Sun Hung Kai Properties (0016) will price the first 60 flats at Imperial Cullinan 15 percent lower than hinted last week. This is the first major luxury project to go on the market since cooling measures were announced. The first flats have been priced at an average HK$18,688 per square foot, as against HK$20,000 to HK$25,000 psf the developer hinted at a week ago. The flats range from 1,583 sq ft to 1,848 sq ft, and are priced between HK$26.07 million and HK$44.48 million. Last night SHKP put another 13 flats on the market. Twelve are between 1,848 sq ft and 1,860 sq ft, and are priced from HK$40.97 million to HK$46.68 million. Another specialty flat, measuring 2,523 sq ft, is priced at HK$108 million, or HK$42,806 psf. Sales of 73 flats will start on Wednesday and are expected to generate more than HK$2 billion for the developer. "We usually offer the first batch of buyers a lower price," said Victor Lui Ting, executive director of Sun Hung Kai Real Estate Agency. Imperial Cullinan comprises 650 flats above the Olympic MTR station. Neighboring flats on the secondary market, such as those at One Silver Sea, are priced around HK$14,500 psf. Flats at The Cullinan - one of several luxury developments above Kowloon MTR, which Sun Hung Kai said it would use as a reference for Imperial Cullinan - are selling for HK$24,398 psf on average. Ricky Poon Wai-ki, executive director of residential sales at Colliers International, said of the HK$18,688 psf average: "It is a rather conservative pricing. "With a price that is so close to the secondary flats in the neighborhoods, the developer could be switching from their initial targeted group of mainlanders to local homeowners who are seeking to upgrade." But Eddie Hui Chi-man, deputy director of the Research Centre for Construction and Real Estate Economics at Hong Kong Polytechnic University, said it is too early to tell whether it indicates a softening of prices. "Selling the flats lower than expected could be one of the tactics the developer uses to attract buyers," he said. "If the developer prices subsequent flats even lower, then that could be a sign. /source: http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_detail.asp?pp_cat=30&art_id=112518&sid=32853727&con_type=3

VNQ MARKET CURRENTS more » November 16, 2010 Home prices could fall another 10% through 2011, forecasts S&P, as the housing market contends with "an elevated, but declining level of short sales and distressed asset sales; a large backlog of distressed properties that have yet to be re-marketed for sale; and a high national unemployment rate." /see: http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/vnq

... from DrB's Diary ...

"The U.S.'s debt is equal to 275% of our GDP. That percentage for the United Kingdom is over 450%." 450% looks rather bad to me, and the UK banks have hardly begun to address London's property bubble. When it bursts, there will be hell to pay