drbubb

That's all a good insight, Charlie. And I cannot disagree. I have to say that I first thought of Taib's comments differently. I thought he was aiming to draw a distinction between those who use analytics and fundamentals to work out how prices "should be" (like the Professors at Long Term Capital who wound up over-gearing and lost billions) and those who simply watched the market, and used technical signals to see what the market was telling observers about what it was really doing. I would tend to back the technicians over the fundamentalists. By even better are those who are flexible enough to USE BOTH, and especially those who look for a technical signal that is backed by good fundamentals.

I am thinking about visiting North or South Carolina. Prices seem to be in freefall in Charlotte, NC: Jan 2010 117.16 $164,024 Feb 2010 115.98 $162,372 Mar 2010 114.77 $160,678 Apr 2010 116.05 $162,470 May 2010 116.39 $162,946 Jun 2010 117.24 $164,136 Jul 2010 117.03 $163,842 Aug 2010 116.57 $163,198 Sep 2010 115.40 $161,560 Oct 2010 114.12 $159,768 Nov 2010 113.45 $158,830 Dec 2010 112.41 $157,374 Jan 2011 111.10 $155,540 Feb 2011 109.64 $153,496 Mar 2011 106.96 $149,744 I own property in Berlin through a Fund set up by one of our old GEI posters

NOT ALL FALLS WERE EQUAL BOXR - Boston CHXR - Chicago CRXR - Charlotte, NC DEXR - Detroit DNXR - Denver MIXR - Miami NYXR - New York City Boston, Denver and NYC seem to have held well - while the other cities show serious corrections. Chicago and Charlotte look like they have gone back into freefall

The Case-Shiller Top-10 Cities / CSXR The March 2011 index is back near / or below the 2009 lows, depending on the Index observed. MONTH = : - CSXR- / x$1400 : - CS20- / x$1400 Jun. 2006 : 226.29 $316,806 : 206.38 $288,932 : CSXR Peak July 2006 : 226.17 $316,638 : 206.52 $289,128 : CS20 Peak = = = Apr. 2009 : 150.44 $210,616 : 139.26 $194,964 : First Low July 2010 : 162.24 $227,136 : 148.89 $208,446 = change : + 7.84% ====== : + 6.92% ====== Mar.2011 : 151.66 $212,324 : 138.16 $193,424 : New Low? = change : - 6.52 % ====== : - 7.20 % ====== = change : - 32.9 % ====== : - 33.1 % ====== : From Peak The CS20 Index (Top20 Cities) is now back below the 2009 Low. The brief rally (of about 8%) has given up its gains.

Thanks for those comments, CB. I agree with this. If you want to be successful, you need to find an investing technique that fits your strengths and interests, and doesn't cause undue stress. For example, I am not very good about using stops- except when they protect profits. So I have tended to use Options and diversification to protect me from falling markets. This worked well for years, but in 2008 my portfolio value slid as Junior miners fell sharply, and I did not cut my losses as soon as I should have. My one gains were mostly made after 2001, riding the bull market in Gold shares and commodities. I think the easy days of commodity profits may possibly be behind us. But I do expect to be able to make money in spurts. I am now looking for a trade similar to my foray into Hong Kong properties which protected me reasonably well from the slide in stocks in 2008. Had I moved more money to property, it would have been better. But HK property is no longer a "safe haven" given its degree of overvaluation. I am very tempted by property in the US, but there are various pitfalls, such as taxed. It is not so easy for me to invest in Rmb. My partner has put aside some serious money into Rmb, but she is a HK ID card holder, so it is easier for her. I do think that China may be headed for some trouble, because of their "overinvestment" in capital projects. I don't know when that trouble will show up, but when you start hearing more about bad loans on the books of Chinese banks, the troubles may be arriving. I like the HK dollar more than the US dollar. There is a built-up hedge since if the US dollar collapsed quickly, I think the peg might be shifted to the Rmb. I agree that the US$ is out of favor, and could show a strong rally at some stage. I confess to being a little disappointed that we have not seen more rally already. Maybe it will come as the Euro crisis moves to the next phase.

Indeed. And the CDNX-chart - looks "heavy" too

Columbus Silver / CSC-chart Has never behaved like a proper Silver share. They seem not to have much silver, but Columbus Gold / CGT-chart shows they have some deal-making skills

Ganfeng Lithium is a China-based multi-product lithium manufacturer. It intends to provide ILC with significant current and future project development assistance capability including direct support towards the advancement of ILC's projects from both a financial and technical perspective. This transaction highlights the strategic interests of Chinese firms in acquiring lithium exploration and mining operations in Latin America. In the past few years, demand for lithium has exploded along with the growth of lithium-ion battery technology in mobile phones, PDAs, laptops, and most recently electric vehicles. With global conservation efforts focusing on the mass production of environmentally-friendly electric vehicles, demand for lithium is projected to more than double by 2020. Most of the production needed to satisfy the market will come from the renowned South American ‘Lithium Belt’, an 800 by 300 km north-south strip centered on the junction of Argentina, Bolivia and Chile, which contains over 75% of the world’s lithium reserves. “From our vantage point in Shanghai, we believe that China is looking to become a global leader in the production of electric vehicles. This requires that the country go outbound to secure lithium supplies. The most logical and prolific place to go is South America,” notes Erik Bethel, Managing Partner of SinoLatin Capital. “We are very pleased to have assisted International Lithium Corp. in securing the strategic development capital from Ganfeng Lithium to capitalize upon this unique opportunity. We worked very closely with ILC and are delighted to participate in its success as the Company advances its core projects and fulfills its mission of becoming a leading international lithium and rare metals explorer and developer,” stated Mr. Bethel. /more: http://sufiy.blogspot.com/2011/06/international-lithium-corp-china-closes.html

... from the Silver - Beating B&H thread ... SLV / USDISHARES SILVER TRUST - Big drop Last [Tick] $35.75[+] Change $-1.85 % Change -4.92% By only pennies, I missed buying Puts on GLD when it was near its High of the Day, and SLV was already negative. Oddly, Gold was levitating yesterday while SPY was down, and CU and SLV were down too. Perhaps China was topping up? (note: Guys, I am not short Gold or Silver. I remain net long - but I am harvesting a bit, as you can see on the Silver B&H thread.)

Welcome to GEI, Jimothy Do not be too shy in asking questions - that's the best way to learn

I think Paul Lavoilette submitted some ideas there - and got no response

I just signed in THREE NEW MEMBERS - who came here through reading the book (I believe) Maybe one of them would like to comment Also, I think we may now have more than two "chapters" amongst our members. But I do not know who they are after the first two. I wonder how many (beyond the obvious two) would "own up to it"?

That's the Spring bounce - as seen thru the LR "rear-view mirror" BDEV went back UP - to fill the gap / BDEV chart Gap filled now - What's next ? BDEV : 115.50 / Change: +3.00 // Percent Change: +2.67% Open: 113.00 High: 118.273 Low: 113.00 Volume: 1,449,555 PSN also filled a gap / PSN-chart

Mortgage slavery only a 5% deposit away.

FRom the Main section Here's what the article said: "The study reveals 53 per cent of homeowners aged 18-34 would like to buy a new home within the next two years but 44 per cent think it is unrealistic that they will be able to do so because of the low value of their property, the difficulty in finding a mortgage and a lack of suitable properties for sale." WHY DO they have such difficulty writing the truth: ??? MOST PEOPLE THINK property is very overpriced, and does not represent good value. That is THE TRUTH, I think. Here's what I responded in to an email from an agent from HK trying to get me interested in a London property called the Tower: "I am in London now. My friends here think that the flats are expensive, and the layouts not optimal." And in response to an email on another property in Manor House, by Berkeley Homes: "The property and its immediate environment are quite beautiful. It is a pity about the greater area in which it is based. It will take many years to improve it enough for me to consider living there." Let's get the TRUTH out. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dlzrNKN3rZI Speaking the truth in a respectful and polite way might actually make some difference - if enough people do it !

EXCELLENT TRUTH TELLING ! The UK's Debt-fueled bubble is about to come to an end. And it is best to get out of the way, and move wealth away from sectors like property that are going to be hit as borrowing implodes. Let people know. The developers should suck up the mess that they have helped create and prolong, rather than being allowed to pass the hot potatoes on to others Here's what happens when Bubbles pop: "Tom McClelland, of the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors, told the News Letter that taking an average of the findings in the three main surveys would roughly tally with his own assessment. In some areas, he added, prices had dropped by more than half. “Some recent repossession sales are showing price decreases of over 60 per cent and are back at levels where first time buyers can comfortably afford to enter the market,” Mr McClelland said. “But the average drop across Northern Ireland is probably in and around 50 per cent down from the 2007 peak."

Here's what the article said: "The study reveals 53 per cent of homeowners aged 18-34 would like to buy a new home within the next two years but 44 per cent think it is unrealistic that they will be able to do so because of the low value of their property, the difficulty in finding a mortgage and a lack of suitable properties for sale." WHY DO they have such difficulty writing the truth: ??? MOST PEOPLE THINK property is very overpriced, and does not represent good value. That is THE TRUTH, I think. Here's what I responded in to an email from an agent from HK trying to get me interested in a London property called the Tower: "I am in London now. My friends here think that the flats are expensive, and the layouts not optimal." And in response to an email on another property in Manor House, by Berkeley Homes: "The property and its immediate environment are quite beautiful. It is a pity about the greater area in which it is based. It will take many years to improve it enough for me to consider living there." Let's get the TRUTH out. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dlzrNKN3rZI Speaking the truth in a respectful and polite way might actually make some difference - if enough people do it !

Comments on STRATEGIES in the book are welcome here - positive or negative. At least two of the private investors interviewed post here

NSA: Headlines May 11 Apr 11 Monthly Index* 330.4 329.5 Monthly Change* 0.3% -0.2% Annual Change -1.2% -1.3% Average Price £167,208 £165,609

There's a group that rely on government handouts, and live okay on them. But they aspire towards better, and familes in such a situation want better for their children. I had a neighbor who was a patent attorney and came from a background like that. He said that his family had had it better than the working poor, whose circumstances were just good enough that they did not qualify for the safety net. The thing about the HK system is that it does not seem to create GENERATIONS of benefit-takers, as the UK system does. And there seems not to be a "culture" built around making people feel "just fine" about living off the state, and that they somehow deserve the support they are getting.

112p now, and threatening to go Red

Barratt was down a bunch yesterday, over -5p The recent high was a tick over 120p. And Monday it closed at 111p on moderate-low volume. BDEV-chart A fall thru 100p on high volume would be very negative. Let's see what news that will require,m if we see it.

What they are selling, they are selling in places like HK and Singapore Yesterday, I actually visited a new project under construction. It was called Woodberry in Manor House. It was rather beautiful, with a 23 story Tower overlooking a reservoir. In fact, it looked at least as nice as the advertising brochures I had seen in Hong Kong. The nice young woman in the marketing suite, was shocked to find a "walk-in" from HK. She did her best to describe the merits of the project. I told her I was yet ready to buy and wanted to have a look around. The price was nearly GBP 500 per sq foot for a high floor flat. 461 per sf, I think it was. That was a flat of less than 900 sf on the 23rd floor, with a view towards the city. My idea was: If there are enough new flats like this going in, it might "gentrify" the area. I had read about 1,500 new flats to be built. In fact, they are selling under 200 new flats there - a drop in the bucket. The rest are being built new (to a lower spec) and will be turned back to the council for affordable housing. This will be great for the subsidised tenants who will wind up living there. But there will be little gentrification from the effort. Less than 200 new families (with more money to spend) will be a drop in the bucket. After seeing the merits of the new development, I wandered around the area. Across the street, I stopped for lunch at a place called Erics Cafe, and ordered a pork chop. It arrived covered with brown gravy and so were the mushy green peas. It took me almost 5 minutes to scrape it off, before I ate it. The Chinese takeaway next door was closed. Probably for lack of business. Someone from HK or Singapore should buy it. In September 2012, just before the property is completed. The 100+ new owners from the Far East will want a place to eat where they can avoid mushy peas covered with brown gravy.

Cash buyers deserve a DISCOUNT, since there is much less risk of the deal failing due to a "break in the chain" etc

ProActive will have NNVC speaking next month: ... NNVC-chart Proactive Investors One2One Investor Forum - Denver Want to know more about our events? Watch the video here Register Here. The directors of International Stem Cell (OTCBB: ISCO), NanoViricides (OTCBB: NNVC) and Bacterin International Holdings (NYSE AMEX: BONE) will be presenting: Thursday the 16th June 2011, Denver Omni Hotels and Resorts, 500 Interlocken Boulevard, Denver (Broomfield), Colorado