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PSYCHOLOGY IN A BUYERS MARKET (from "Market Bottom" thread on the Main board) True. But there also be many who do not sell early, since they will be expecting prices to "return to highs." When prices sink lower and lower, they will wish they had sold, and then begin chasing the price down. As the price sinks, their hopes will sink with it, and they may realise they are trapped (in negative equity.) Then they will fall in the pattern of seeing the market drop, and then dropping their sales ideas afterwards, not realising that buyers are scarce, and they will be looking for a discount to market, not paying last year's price. One of the factors that will keep prices in a downtrend, will be that mass of unfulfilled sellers, wishing the market would come back up. Buyers will get in the habit of "underbidding" the market on several places at once, and waiting to see who will come down and negotiate with them. The frustrated sellers will be saying, "It is impossible to sell;" not realising they are simply playing the wrong game. In a buyers market you have to do what an old Greek shipowner with ships to charter told me that he instructed his brokers to do in a weak market: "Firm up the bid, and fix it." (That is, don't mess about trtying to get a better price, because the buyer may change his mind.)

Possibly, just possibly... Put options may be where Gold was back in 2004-5

BEATING THE RUSH? / Prices dropped 15% QUOTE REDROW just discounted their major development in Loughton (London - zone 6) by nice 15% ... Perhaps they have some cash flow "issues" or they just see the market tanking hard and fast ???? Are the new builds a good indicator of the market??? I think so as the developers can not just wait for couple of years. They have to sell what they build ASAP ... Old price £326k: New price £284k: UNQUOTE /per HPC thread: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...156631&st=0

Manipulating Ziknik's charts: interesting. I think you might want to say when GC1 and GC2 started. Also the big dead cat bounce in GC2, engineered by the "forces of browness", might simply serve to delay the bottom of the market, as I show here:

"Hedging" a forecast... Hope so. But I'm hedging my bets a little. I want to come out and say we will see a low at 100-115,000, but I also think that 125,000-135,000 (or so) might be enough if they can manage to hold rates down while pushing up incomes. But I cannot see right now how the government will manage that trick. The best strategy now is to expect a sizable drop, and watch the Builders and other warning signs for a premature upturn, or maybe an unusual bounce on the way towards a bottom.

COHORT GROUP investments ====== Dr. Jens Alfred Karl Ehrhardt [HK:0328] Alco Holdings Ltd. - Jul 07/10 [HK:1170] Kingmaker Footwear Holdings Ltd. - Jan 15/10 [HK:0900] Aeon Credit Service (Asia) Co. Ltd. [HK:0894] : Man Yue Group Other HK : Group Sense (Int'l) Malaysia: Property Plaza Ampang

The people's champion After derailing PCCW's privatisation bid, David Webb intends to keep fighting on behalf of Hong Kong's minority shareholders EXCERPTS Webb points out that he has rigorously campaigned for Hong Kong-listed companies to announce their financial results on a quarterly basis. He argues that Hong Kong may be a fast-paced financial capital of the region, but when it comes to listed companies reporting their quarterly performance, the city still lags behind the mainland and Singapore in terms of regulation. It is common for retail and institutional investors to wait until the end of April to find out what happened in the year ending the previous December - a long time, especially if one is an institutional investor seeking to gauge and understand the performance of the company in the coming year. "What we need is clear-cut reporting from the listed companies, including numbers we can trust," Webb says. Perhaps it is unfortunate timing for Hong Kong, but Webb says that sympathy for companies will be in short supply because political pressure had blocked earlier efforts to upgrade reporting practices and listing standards in 2002. He took up the cudgels again last year, but the issue was mired in a bureaucratic muddle and has now been relegated to a long-term-goal category. One explanation for the delayed response by the government to the proposed changes could be to protect wealth at a time when many companies face a troubled future because of the global economic crisis. The activist warns that Hong Kong is in real danger of being sidelined as just another "mainland commercial city", especially since the central government has made it clear that it will develop Shanghai to become its international finance capital in the next 10 years. "If we don't raise our competitive standard and establish these rules, then there is no way for a foreign multinational to choose Hong Kong. The SAR would lose it pre-eminent position as the gateway to China," he warns. All Hong Kong will be left with in terms of financial services, he argues, will be asset management and private banking - two areas where Singapore is already chipping away at Hong Kong's market lead. The discussion returns to minority shareholders' rights and the stunning verdict of the Court of Appeal that forced Richard Li and China Unicom (SEHK: 0762, announcements, news) to abandon the PCCW privatisation bid. Though Webb is modest about the whole case, it was the anonymous tip he received that helped the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) to launch an investigation into PCCW's privatisation move. Webb is reluctant to talk about the source of the tip, beyond saying that he would like to keep his sources secret, like any self-respecting journalist. He immediately alerted the SFC and the Independent Commission Against Corruption about the abnormal share transfers after the offer was made public earlier in the year. He asked the regulator to look at the company's record to check on shareholders, as he himself did before giving his findings to the SFC. The SFC took the baton from there and its legal team worked overtime to argue the case that derailed the telecom giant's bid. The judgment of Justice Anthony Rogers was a victory for minority shareholder activism in the city and the local media termed it the battle of David versus Goliath. Last month, the Court of Appeal denied applications from PCCW and its parent company to make a final appeal against the court ruling that rejected the buyout plan of PCCW's shareholders. . . . Webb says he has never felt threatened as a result of his exposes about companies and feels safe in Hong Kong. "If I was in Jakarta or Manila, I would have felt threatened. But here I have never been threatened or received a threatening call. If I did, I would call the police," he says matter of factly. As a rule, Webb also never comments on companies with questionable shareholdings that may be connected to bad elements. "I would not want to name them, but you can look at the reprimands from the SFC to know these companies." He is a member of high-IQ society Mensa but says that his busy schedule keeps him away from attending its gatherings regularly. Webb divides his day equally between his shareholder activism and his investment holdings. He owns shares in all the companies that constitute the Hang Seng Index and uses his shareholdings to raise concerns about any wrongdoing or issue that would hurt minority shareholders' rights. Webb launched his own website, Webb-site.com, so that he could publicise his views and write on issues that affect shareholders. "I sort of started blogging long before it became popular. The main purpose of launching my own site was to highlight the issues and get them done." One of his first causes celebres was to write about the pros and cons of the Hong Kong dollar's peg to the United States dollar. The peg came under tremendous pressure from currency speculators in 1998 at the peak of the Asian financial crisis, forcing the Hong Kong Monetary Authority to intervene several times in the currency market to shore up the peg. At the same time, speculators shorted some Hong Kong stocks, spreading panic among retail investors. This forced the government to intervene in the market and buy shares in some blue-chip companies. Webb says the unprecedented government action set a dangerous precedent of intervention in the free-wheeling Hong Kong market /more: http://www.scmp.com/portal/site/SCMP/menui...amp;s=Magazines

David Webb's own investments As a private investor, Mr. Webb doesn't have his returns audited. The numbers he provides, however, are impressive. He says if his portfolio were converted into a hypothetical mutual fund without a management fee, it would have gained 1,025% over the 10 years ended Dec. 31, versus a 78.6% return on the Hang Seng Index, though his performance was much better in the first half of the decade, he says. He is up 13.7% this year, while the Hang Seng Index is down 4.6%. Mr. Webb's best investment, he says, was Techtronic Industries Co. In 1999, he started buying the power-tools and appliances company at 60 Hong Kong cents (about eight U.S. cents) a share, adjusting for a stock split. Eventually the small-cap stock rose to more than HK$20 a share in 2005. Mr. Webb finished selling the stock in 2007 and no longer owns it because he says there is a herding effect that tends to push prices up as a stock gets "discovered" by bank analysts and funds. He prefers to rotate out of those stocks and back into other stocks he finds undervalued. Asked about his take on the market today, Mr. Webb says he believes the Hang Seng Index will end the year "significantly lower" as interest rates rise, China's property bubble deflates, and banks' balance sheets see more bad loans. He says the three largest Chinese state banks, which make up 38.6% of the Hang Seng Index's weighting, will face huge loan losses over the next three years because of the lending splurge during the financial crisis. As part of Beijing's banking reforms ahead of listings, the government "cleared out the bad loans, but not the bad lenders," Mr. Webb says. Another stock he is down on is Internet company Tencent Holdings Ltd., which he calls the most overvalued stock in the Hang Seng Index excluding the Chinese banks, with a price-to-book ratio over 21, a trailing price-to-earnings ratio around 50 times, and a dividend yield of just 0.24%. "I don't think their business model is as sustainable as the market seems to think," says Mr. Webb, who previously worked as an investment banker. "Perhaps that's why they are hoarding cash." So far, Mr. Webb says he has no plans to manage other people's money. "I enjoy my life as it is, with the freedom to spend as much time as I want on pro bono activities and family," Mr. Webb says. "A fiduciary duty to shareholders would change that." /more: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405...1829829668.html /search: "David+Webb" "5 percent interest" : == == == (And from last year): As a consequence, we made two other "honourable mentions", Fujikon Industrial Holdings Ltd (0927), which was our 2005 pick, and optical frames maker Sun Hing Vision Group Holdings Ltd (0125). Including dividends, Fujikon returned 57.8%, and Sun Hing Vision did even better than Alco, gaining 190.8%. All 3 stocks beat the Hang Seng Index.

David Webb's Christmas Share Tip From 1999 to 2008, Webb made an annual Christmas share tip where he recommends a single undervalued but well-run company. His picks are believed to have strongly influenced the price of selected stocks.[13] However, The Standard[14] criticised Webb after reporting that he himself owned holdings in his own Christmas share tip (which he has always disclosed), in one case giving himself almost a 40% unrealised profit on his holdings the following day after the tip was published. In December 2009, he announced an end to the "Christmas Pick" after a 10-year run in which they returned a cumulative 1118%, compared with an 87% return in the Hang Seng Index over that period.[15], saying that the success of the picks "has become something of a distraction" to the main goal of raising the standards of Hong Kong's corporate and economic governance. Webb was named in CFO Magazine Global 100, as a "Gadfly" in 2002.[16] == == == Last year's Pick - from Dec. 2009 Last year's pick was Alco Holdings Limited (Alco, 0328): All-data : updated to 2/4/2019: HK$0.91 Alco is a maker of consumer electronics, including portable DVD players, flat panel TVs, iPod/iPhone-ready audio systems and set-top boxes. Well if you joined us, and became an "Alco-holic", then you did well. We picked it at $1.21. It reached a daily low of $1.03 on 20-Mar-09 (so you had the opportunity to get it even cheaper than when we picked it), and it closed yesterday at $2.99. It also paid dividends of $0.23, representing a dividend yield of 19.0% on the pick price. So overall, our pick gained 166.1% for the year, compared with a 42.3% total return on the HSI (dividends reinvested). As we wrote in last year's article: "in our fishing ground of small-caps, valuations are at least as cheap as in 1998. We are spoilt for choice, with some companies trading at close to their net cash, at steep discounts to net asset value, with consistent dividends yielding in the teens, and with P/Es below 4. Indeed, your editor's entire portfolio is tonight on a trailing 12-month P/E of 3.67 and a price/book of 0.41. The metaphoric glass is not half-empty, it is one-third full. If you understand the businesses you are investing in, and if you trust the management, then you probably won't get such attractive valuations for another 10 years. So making our 2008 Christmas Pick has been a difficult choice with so many deserving stocks to choose from." As a consequence, we made two other "honourable mentions", Fujikon Industrial Holdings Ltd (0927), which was our 2005 pick, and optical frames maker Sun Hing Vision Group Holdings Ltd (0125). Including dividends, Fujikon returned 57.8%, and Sun Hing Vision did even better than Alco, gaining 190.8%. All 3 stocks beat the Hang Seng Index. Your editor, David Webb, still holds over 5% of Alco, over 7% of Fujikon, and over 7% of Sun Hing Vision (which we increased through the 6% disclosure threshold on 4-May-09 at $1.60 and through the 7% threshold on 28-Aug-09 at $2.765). The 10-year history What a decade this has been! Our pick has made money in 8 out of 10 years, out-performing the total return on the Hang Seng Index 8 years out of 10. Here's the track record: What this table shows is that if you put $1,000 into the first pick, and rotated into the next one each year, you would have made 1,118.1% and would have about $12,181 by now, a compound average gain of 28.4% per year. By comparison, if you invested the same amount in the Hang Seng Index 10 years ago, and reinvested the dividends, you would now have about $1,866, a compound average gain of 6.4% per year. So our picks have out-performed the index by 552.8% over 10 years. Both the stock and index calculations exclude transaction costs /see: http://webb-site.com/articles/pick2009.asp

David Webb's Stock ideas / Hong Kong Investments ... Webb-stock-charts Webb's Hong Kong Picks ==================== Price : P/E R : Yield% : 0328 / Alco Holdings---- : $3.71 : 07.56 : 2.70% : 0684 / Allan Int'l Hldings $3.47 : 05.89 : 1.44% : 1120 / Arts Optical Int'l. : $3.71 : 12.37 : 1.75% : 0927 / Fujikon Industrial: $1.65 : 17.16 : 1.82% : 0645 / KTP Holdings----- : $2.58 : 124.6 : 0.00% : 2728 / Shinhint Acoustic: $0.92 : 10.53 : 1.30% : 0125 / Sun Hing Vision-- : $3.50 : 09.69 : 1.29% : ================= His stakes worth a total of maybe HK$500 million - a guess, assuming he owns 5-10% News-- : http://www.aastocks.com/en/stock/Interests...px?symbol=00645 Info---- : http://www.chinesestock.org/show.aspx?id=99573&cid=28 Profile : http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=0645.hk&d=t Search : "David+Webb" buys stock "interest" David M. Webb : Editor, Webb-site.com A Hong Kong resident since 1991, former investment banker David Webb retired in 1998 to focus on his investments in HK-listed small-caps and establish Webb-site.com, a non-profit platform for better corporate and economic governance in Hong Kong, which now has over 19,000 subscribers to its free newsletter. He has been a member of Hong Kong’s Takeovers and Mergers Panel since 2001, and was an elected independent director of Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Ltd from 2003 to 2008 when he resigned over corporate governance issues. He was a best-selling author of games and books for the first generation of home computers. He is an Oxford maths graduate, a member of the World Economic Forum’s Young Global Leaders, and former Chairman of Hong Kong Mensa. == == == (Wiki-Profile): David Michael Webb (born 29 August 1965 in London, England), usually known as David Webb, is a well-known activist and share market analyst in Hong Kong. He is a retired Investment Banker, and now devotes much of his time to advocating solutions for better corporate and economic governance in Hong Kong. He is also a significant investor in smaller companies listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and is frequently called upon by the media to comment on all matters relating to corporate and economic governance. Biography Webb graduated in Mathematics from Exeter College, Oxford in 1986. From 1981 to 1986 he was also an author of books and games for early home computers. After graduation he became an investment banker in London. He moved to Hong Kong in 1991. He retired from Investment Banking in 1998, and now lobbies extensively for increased transparency and public accountability of directors of public companies as well as for the Government of Hong Kong[1]. Webb is currently a member of the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission's Takeover and Mergers Panel. Activism He uses his eponymous: http://webb-site.com - as his official mouthpiece on all matters commercial and political. He has purchased shares in all the companies which form the Hang Seng Index, and demands formal votes to resolutions which he judges detrimental to the interests of minority shareholders during the annual general meeting of public listed companies. To force real votes, Webb launched "Project Poll" to push for formal votes on all proposals at annual meetings of Hang Seng index constituent companies; he initiated Project Vampire, to block resolutions that allow for bypassing of pre-emption of rights issues and massive share dilutions.[1] Webb is also seen as a bit of a political activist: in December 2005, he advocated dramatic widening the electorate of the functional constituencies, arguing that professionals in fields such as bankers and stockbrokers should get to elect their own representatives.[2] At present, only accountants, lawyers, doctors and teachers are able to exercise that right[2]; stockbrokers are represented by a convicted fraudster,[3] whilst the banking seat has only been contested once in 20 years.[2] /more (2010): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Michael_Webb

Goldfinger's chart, with some of my own comments After Labour came to power, the BofE and the government ignored House Price Inflation, thinking it provided cost free stimulus to the economy. They kept rates at moderate levels, focusing instead on other types of inflation, and thinking that a housing bubble would not create economic problems later. ...Until the BofE introduced QE and ultralow rates. That trigger a 12 months bounce (of about 10% in the H&Nindex). but that is also beginning to give way under its own weight (and some cahnges in Housing benefits.) Rates cannot be moved below zero, and banks are unlikely to go back to reckless lending, so what will stop the slide this time? The only think I can see is prices falling back to affordable levels, which could be at Pds.125,000-130,000 or even: 100,000 - 115,000 assuming the Uk avoids a bout of hyperinflation.

From the At What point will the UK market bottom? thread : Here's where we've been: What's coming? If it fits the cyclical pattern, it should be something like this: In fact, the fall may be quicker now that the Second Leg down is underway than suggested by my chart. For example, in the US the drop has been rather symmetrical with the rally: http://www.blogcdn.com/www.dailyfinance.co...home-price2.jpg Now that the mirror of that 2005 plateau has been traced out for the UK market, a symmetrical drop would suggest a rather ugly move down. I talk about "crash cruise speed" with prices averaging at least "0.5-1.0% down per month", but I think it could easily be faster than that, for at portion on the next 2-3 years. My H&Nindex is the average of Halifax and Nationwide. Peak was-- : 192,490 -08/07 (100.0% ) Leg1 Low-- : 153,477 -02/09 ( 79.73% : -20.3%) DC bounce : 169,287 -04/10 ( 87.95% : -20.3%) Today------- : 163,333 -11/10 ( 84.85% : -15.1%) Mos to12/12: 25 mos. == at 1%--- : 115,500 -11/10 ( 60% : -40%) Mos to12/13: 37 mos. == at 1%---- : 92,500 -11/10 ( 48% : -52%) Of course, a drop averaging 1% a month would not be a s deep as I have shown, because the base upon which the 1% applies gets smaller over time. But the above order of magnitude- to Pds. 100,000 - 115,000 should give some idea of what I think is possible over the next 3-5 years, if the government allows prices to return to historical multiples of income, without tampering.

Makes sense. But we have decided to play it conservatively, and raise cash while the market was rising. Our last property is on the market, but it is on at a "high" price since we like living in it. If China stocks, the HSI and developer stocks stay weak, I think it will drag the propety index back to one of those green support lines.

A DATA BITE.... Leg1: Ireland-== : UK-======== : GreaterLondon : USA-=====: High: 139.5-1/07 : 192,490 -08/07 : 412,731-11/07 : 206.52-07/06 Low : 90.3- Q2'10 : 153,477-02/09 : 386,653-01/09 : 139.26-04/09 === -35.3% === : -20.3% ===== : - 6.3% ===== : -32.6% === : Bounce: High Ireland-none: 169,287 -04/10 : 429,597-06/10 : 148.91 -07/10 === -N/A% === : + 6.4% ===== : +11.1% ==== : + 6.9% === : Now: 90.3- Q2'10 : 163,333-11/10 : 408,248-12/10 : 147.49-09/10 chg. :-35.3% === : - 3.5% ===== : - 5.0% ===== : - 1.0% ==== : Vs.Peak chg. :-35.3% === : -15.1% ===== :- 5.0% ===== : -28.6% === : ======= Mon: comp20, YoYr.% : +mom% / CSXR10 YoYr.% : mom% / EstAve/ Med.NAR : mean 2007 ===== , ===== : ===== / =====, ====== : ===== / ===== : 219.0K : 266.0k 2008 ===== , ===== : ===== / =====, ====== : ===== / ===== : 198.1K : 242.7k 2009 ===== , ===== : ===== / =====, ====== : ===== / ===== : 172.5K : 216.9k oct. : XXX.xx, +0.00% : - 0.00% / XXX.xx, +0.00% : - 0.00% / $1XX.xk : 172.0k : 217.2k nov : XXX.xx, +0.00% : - 0.00% / XXX.xx, +0.00% : - 0.00% / $1XX.xk : 170.0k : 211.8k dec : 145.90, - 3.08% : - 0.19% / 158.16, - 2.42%: - X.XX% / $189.7K : 170.5k : 218.7k 2010 - jan . : 145.31, - 0.70% : - 0.40% / 157.87, - 0.06% : - 0.18% / $188.9k : 164.9k : 212.2k feb. : 144.06, +0.66% : - 0.86% / 156.85, + 1.45% : - 0.65% / $187.3k : 164.6k : 208.7k mar : 143.35, +2.35% : - 0.49% / 156.22, + 3.13% : - 0.40% / $186.4k : 169.6k : 214.5k apr. : 144.57, +3.81% : +0.85% / 157.36, + 4.60% : +0.73% / $187.9k : 172.3k : 217.3k may: 146.47, +4.64% : +1.31% / 159.41, + 5.44% : +1.30% / $190.4k : 174.6k : 220.9k jun. : 148.00, +4.25% : +1.04% / 161.07, + 5.03% : +1.04% / $192.4k : 183.0k : 230.0k jul . : 148.91, +3.18% : +0.61% / 162.28, + 4.06% : +0.75% / $193.6k : 182.1k : 231.7k aug : 148.59, +1.70% : - 0.21% / 162.13, + 2.57% : - 0.09% / $193.2k : 177.5k : 226.0k sep. : 147.49, +0.55% : - 0.74% / 161.25, + 1.51% : - 0.54% / $191.7k : 171.7k : 218.3k oct. : XXX.xx, + 0.00% : - 0.00% / XXX.xx, + 0.00% : - 0.00% / $1XX.xk : 170.5k : 218.7k Owners of about 11 million homes, or 23 percent of households with a mortgage, owed more than their property was worth as of June 30, according to CoreLogic. Another 2.4 million borrowers had less than 5 percent equity in their houses and probably would lose money on a sale after paying broker fees and closing costs, CoreLogic said Aug 25. 8 Million Douglas Duncan, chief economist for Washington-based Fannie Mae, said in a Bloomberg Radio interview last week that 7 million U.S. homes are vacant or in the foreclosure process. Morgan Stanley’s Chang said the number of bank-owned and foreclosure-bound homes that have yet to hit the market is closer to 8 million. Sales of new and existing homes fell to the lowest levels on record in July as a federal tax credit for buyers expired and U.S. unemployment remained near a 26-year high. The median price of a previously owned home in the month was $182,600, about the level it was in 2003, the National Association of Realtors said. == == == NAR statistics :: http://www.realtor.org/research/research/reportsstatistics

Lev, I agree with your points. A 5-10% drop seems possible without rate rises, but I think there is a real risk of rate rises, and I am less sure than Russell Napier that rates will stay down. My best guess is that rates will rise more than amny expect, and the China stock market may fall, delivering a property price drop of 15-20%, and perhaps more, in HK. I am playing this by holding high cash levels, and buying a few options on stock indices: Puts, Straddles, etc. I believe that too many people are complacent about rates, the stock market, and property values now. If rates stay down, then I may wish that I had held onto some of the properties we sold in 2009-10. Time will tell.

"Top picks - November 16, 2010 Among developers, our top Buys are Sino Land, Kerry Prop (on CL), SHK Prop, and Hang Lung Prop. We also add Sino Land to Conviction List, as we expect the company to benefit from a series of new HK residential launches next year. Among the major landlords, we continue to see Swire Pacific (0019.HK, Buy, HK$121.40) as the key catch-up name in 2011. We maintain our Sell ratings on Champion REIT and Great Eagle. Key risks An abrupt economic downturn, unexpected interest rate hikes, and government policies that affect the longer-term demand/supply balance." Potential new residential launches in 2011 Potential new launches===========: Location== : Units FY11E ASP : Developers KIL 11146, Hoi Fai Rd., W. Kowloon----- : Tai Kok Tsui : 830 : 11,500 : SHKP Junction of Hoi Wang Rd, Yan Cheng Rd : Tai Kok Tsui : 638 : 12,000 : Sino Land Beech St., Ivy St., Pine St., Tai Kok Tsui-- : Tai Kok Tsui : 464 : 08,160 : Sino Land/ URA /source: http://115.238.20.154:8080/report/download...id=314980573492

... from the 16-18 year Cycle thread ...

Two years ago, I worked out what was the "best fit" for the historical data, and I have not needed to change it. What this says is : Caribbean Coast has moved lock-step with the rest of HK's Property prices. And I think it helps to debunk the regional differences that so many people talk about.

The "Sq x 22" is a special column for some complex calculations that might only confuse you to explain. "MMIx 46" : that's easier to explain: + MMI is the MMIdx (Mass Market Index) + Multiply it x 46, and you get a good guess of what the Caribbean Coast average price might be Thus, for last week (12/05/2010) we have: + MMI : 86.75 + x 46 : $3,991 Compare with: + CarC : $4,030 By this measure, Caribbean Coast is overvalued by only $40 per sf. That's a remarkably close "guess" in my view.

HK Property Prices seem to be drifting higher on light volume: WeekEnded : HangSI- SQx22: Hk12 :: CCLI : MMIdx ... MMI x46 / CaribC : CPark-Olympic 10/31/2010 : 23,096 - X,xxx : 55.05 :: 86.87 : 84.00 ... $3,xxx / $3,955 : $8,870 11/07/2010 : 24,877 - X,xxx : 59.75 :: 87.55 : 84.62 ... $3,xxx / $3,954 : $9,029 11/14/2010 : 24,223 - X,xxx : 59.35 :: 87.41 : 84.70 ... $3,xxx / $4,002 : $9,282 11/21/2010 : 23,606 - X,xxx : 56.85 :: 88.24 : 85.62 ... $3,xxx / $4,012 : $9,225 11/28/2010 : 22,877 - X,xxx : 54.50 :: 88.58 : 86.16 ... $3,xxx / $4,096 : $9,092 12/05/2010 : 23,321 - X,xxx : 54.45 :: 89.41 : 86.75 ... $3,xxx / $4,030 : $9,772 12/12/2010 : 23,163 - X,xxx : 53.15 And it may not take much to take these prices lower. China's credit-tightening could spill over into HK in 2011. If you look at a chart imcluding three top HK developers ... update ... it looks as if they are just levitating on light volume, waiting for some news to bring them down. Meantime, prices in some projects that I watch closely seem to be drifting higher, but I am starting to get calls from agents offering my occasional "bargains" - thought they do not seem cheap to me. Park Avenue / Central Park - in Olympic area (Tai Kok Tsui) of Kowloon ... update Caribbean Coast in Tung Chung, N.T. ... update (PA/CP & CC data is in columns above)

DATA BANK for Hong Kong Property Centaline's Index ... updated Week==== : 35tr : prv : CCLI. : MMLI. : 18wkMA .. before /18 01/06/2008 : xxx : xxx : ??.?? : 64.98 01/13/2008 : xxx : xxx : ??.?? : 67.93 01/20/2008 : xxx : xxx : ??.?? : 68.05 01/27/2008 : xxx : xxx : ??.?? : 69.13 02/03/2008 : xxx : xxx : ??.?? : 71.08 02/10/2008 : xxx : xxx : ??.?? : 70.33 02/17/2008 : 137 : xxx : 73.81 : 71.08 : 63.41 .. 02/24/2008 : 153 : xxx : 73.28 : 70.33 : 64.15 03/02/2008 : 159 : xxx : 73.98 : 71.07 : 64.92 03/09/2008 : 186 : xxx : 73.5E : 70.5E : 65.61 03/16/2008 : 169 : 218 : 73.01 : 69.97 : 66.22 03/23/2008 : 121 : xxx : 72.79 : 69.72 : 66.78 03/30/2008 : 134 : 203 : 72.89 : 70.06 : 67.29 04/06/2008 : 146 : 193 : 73.75 : 70.91 : 67.82 04/13/2008 : 124 : xxx : 71.93 : 69.02 : 68.17 .. 1,227.11 04/20/2008 : 160e: xxx : 72.57 : 69.77 : 68.51 .. 1,233.11 04/27/2008 : 171 : xxx : 71.49 : 68.58 : 68.78 .. 1,238.04 05/04/2008 : 173 : 253 : 71.44 : 68.61 : 69.02 .. 1,242.33 / C.C. 05/11/2008 : 178 : 232 : 71.51 : 68.59 : 69.22 .. 1245.94 / $3,115 05/18/2008 : 150 : xxx : 71.86 : 69.11 : 69.40 .. 1249.20 / $3,085 05/25/2008 : 185 : 209 : 72.67 : 69.87 : 69.57 .. 1252.30 / $3,115 06/01/2008 : 170 : xxx : 72.16 : 69.26 : 69.65 .. 1253.63 / $3,127 06/07/2008 : 183 : 203 : 73.23 : 70.26 : 69.77 .. 1255.84 / $3,295 (! High in CC ?) 06/14/2008 : 171 : 211 : 71.30 : 69.61 : 69.80 .. 1256.32 / $3,154 06/21/2008 : 150e: xxx : 72.62 : 69.39 : 69.xx .. 12xx.xx / $3,030 (reflecting: 6/16 - 6/22) 06/28/2008 : 130e: xxx : 73.38 : 70.27 : 69.xx .. 12xx.xx / $3,111 07/05/2008 : 116 : xxx : 72.77 : 69.70 : 69.xx .. 12xx.xx / $3,240 07/12/2008 : 109 : 262 : 72.38 : 69.41 : 69.xx .. 12xx.xx / $3,192 07/19/2008 : 104 : 268 : 71.84 : 68.78 : 69.xx .. 12xx.xx / $3,025 07/26/2008 : 115 : 333 : 71.55 : 68.47 : 69.xx .. 12xx.xx / $3,324 08/02/2008 : 124 : 268 : 70.81 : 67.59 : 69.xx .. ==== / $3,194 (testing lows again!) 08/09/2008 : 112 : 224 : 70.46 : 67.24 : 69.09 .. 65.05 / $2,870 08/16/2008 : 107 : xxx : 70.49 : 67.31 : 68.99 .. 65.27 / $3,140 08/23/2008 : 104 : 157 : 70.13 : 66.92 : 68.83 .. 65.48 / $3,265 08/30/2008 : 123 : 212 : 69.94 : 66.86 : 68.74 .. 65.70 / $3,097 09/06/2008 : 121 : xxx : 68.93 : 65.93 : 68.59 .. 65.89 / $2,974 (testing again...) 09/15/2008 : 098 : xxx : 68.40 : 65.44 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $3,070e 09/22/2008 : 083 : xxx : 68.26 : 65.26 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $3,192 09/29/2008 : 080 : 329 : 67.52 : 64.46 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $3,160 10/06/2008 : 084 : 391 : 67.44 : 64.61 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $3,097 : Black Oct. week 10/13/2008 : 104 : xxx : 66.27 : 63.79 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $3,159 10/20/2008 : 090 : 422 : 64.64 : 62.01 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,925 10/27/2008 : 113 : xxx : 63.40 : 60.94 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,950e 11/03/2008 : 132 : xxx : 61.61 : 59.09 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,984 11/10/2008 : 157 : xxx : 59.93 : 57.94 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,642 11/17/2008 : 129 : 465 : 57.43 : 55.41 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,609 11/24/2008 : 102 : 337 : 57.00 : 55.03 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,496 12/01/2008 : xxx : xxx : 56.92 : 54.99 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,500e 12/08/2008 : xxx : xxx : 57.15 : 55.19 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,512 12/15/2008 : xxx : xxx : 56.71 : 54.77 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,541 (( LOW )) 12/22/2008 : xxx : xxx : 56.93 : 54.99 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,670e 12/29/2008 : xxx : xxx : 56.78 : 54.89 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,581 (Cal. 2009) 01/05/2009 : 191 : xxx : 57.52 : 55.75 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,649 01/12/2009 : 187 : 396 : 57.51 : 55.94 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,698 01/19/2009 : 187 : 396 : 57.99 : 56.42 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,612 01/26/2009 : ??? : 396 : 58.38 : 56.87 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,626 02/03/2009 : 056 : ??? : 58.53 : 57.02 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,612 02/10/2009 : 124 : 072 : 58.35 : 56.75 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,612 02/17/2009 : 152 : 137 : 58.70 : 57.28 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,656 02/24/2009 : 161 : 153 : 58.62 : 57.02 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,545 03/03/2009 : 175 : 159 : 59.45 : 57.78 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,732 03/10/2009 : 157 : 186 : 59.47 : 57.87 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,660e 03/17/2009 : 184 : 169 : 59.74 : 58.25 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,742 03/24/2009 : 240 : 121 : 59.43 : 57.90 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,540 03/31/2009 : 318 : 134 : 60.20 : 58.71 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,595 ==== : Rise from LOW : 6.15%: 7.30% : ==== MMI x46 / CaribC 04/07/2009 : 365 : 146 : 60.10 : 58.48 : xx.xx ... $2,690 / $2,692 04/14/2009 : 327 : 124 : 60.66 : 59.20 : xx.xx ... $2,723 / $2,722 04/21/2009 : 291 : 129 : 61.50 : 60.06 : xx.xx ... $2,763 / $2,695 04/28/2009 : 258 : 171 : 62.83 : 61.29 : xx.xx ... $2,819 / $2,683 05/05/2009 : 157 : 173 : 63.08 : 61.43 : xx.xx ... $2,826 / $2,781 05/12/2009 : 239 : 178 : 64.34 : 62.48 : xx.xx ... $2,874 / $2,634 05/17/2009 : 270 : 150 : 64.30 : 62.56 : xx.xx ... $2,878 / $2,787 05/24/2009 : 242 : 185 : 64.35 : 62.72 : xx.xx ... $2,885 / $2,804 05/31/2009 : 316 : 170 : 65.49 : 63.62 : xx.xx ... $2,926 / $2,944 06/07/2009 : 320 : 183 : 65.00 : 63.18 : xx.xx ... $2,906 / $2,881 06/14/2009 : xxx : xxx : 65.82 : 64.07 : xx.xx ... $2,947 / $2,874 06/21/2009 : xxx : xxx : 67.11 : 65.49 : xx.xx ... $3,013 / $2,967 06/28/2009 : xxx : xxx : 68.42 : 66.77 : xx.xx ... $3,071 / $2,955 ==== : Rise from LOW : 20.6%: 21.9% : ==== MMI x46 / CaribC 07/05/2009 : xxx : xxx : 67.59 : 65.59 : xx.xx ... $3,071 / $2,906 07/12/2009 : xxx : xxx : 68.46 : 66.52 : xx.xx ... $3,060 / $2,948 07/19/2009 : xxx : xxx : 68.62 : 66.73 : xx.xx ... $3,070 / $2,996 07/26/2009 : xxx : xxx : 68.71 : 66.89 : xx.xx ... $3,077 / $3,043 08/02/2009 : xxx : xxx : 69.44 : 67.10 : xx.xx ... $3,087 / $3,140 08/09/2009 : xxx : xxx : 69.51 : 67.33 : xx.xx ... $3,097 / $3,088E? 08/16/2009 : xxx : xxx : 70.12 : 67.62 : xx.xx ... $3,111 / $3,206 +7.00% in a month! 08/23/2009 : xxx : xxx : 70.79 : 68.50 : xx.xx ... $3,151 / $3,084 08/30/2009 : xxx : xxx : 70.72 : 68.31 : xx.xx ... $3,142 / $3,311 09/06/2009 : xxx : xxx : 72.64 : 70.38 : xx.xx ... $3,237 / $3,250e 09/13/2009 : xxx : xxx : 72.06 : 70.07 : xx.xx ... $3,223 / $3,195 09/20/2009 : xxx : xxx : 72.18 : 70.05 : xx.xx ... $3,222 / $3,120e 09/27/2009 : xxx : xxx : 72.92 : 70.95 : xx.xx ... $3,264 / $3,278 ==== : Rise from LOW : 28.5%: 29.5% : ==== MMI x46 / CaribC WeekEnded : HangSI- SQx22: Hk12 :: CCLI : MMIdx ... MMI x46 / CaribC 10/04/2009 : 20,375 - 3,140 : 48.60 :: 72.70 : 70.81 ... $3,257 / $3,096 10/11/2009 : 21,499 - 3,226 : 51.75 :: 73.80 : 71.57 ... $3,292 / $3,257 10/18/2009 : 21,930 - 3,258 : 53.55 :: 73.37 : 71.38 ... $3,283 / $3,283 10/25/2009 : 22,590 - 3,307 : 55.30 :: 73.39 : 71.16 ... $3,273 / $3,247 11/01/2009 : 21,753 - 3,245 : 55.80 :: 73.74 : 71.30 ... $3,280 / $3,150 (Dist.$2,150?) 11/08/2009 : 21,830 - 3,250 : 56.30 :: 73.52 : 71.20 ... $3,275 / $3,161 11/15/2009 : 22,554 - 3,304 : 53.95 :: 73.91 : 71.42 ... $3,285 / $3,304 11/22/2009 : 22,456 - 3,297 : 54.20 :: 73.56 : 71.05 ... $3,xxx / $3,304 11/29/2009 : 21,135 - 3,198 : 51.70 :: 72.61 : 70.00 ... $3,220 / $3,157 12/06/2009 : 22,498 - 3,300 : 59.15 :: 73.03 : 70.87 ... $3,260 / $3,110 12/13/2009 : 21,902 - 3,256 : 57.80 :: 72.79 : 70.61 ... $3,248 / $3,293 12/20/2009 : 21,176 - 3,201 : 55.00 :: 73.08 : 70.79 ... $3,256 / $3,200e 12/27/2009 : 21,517 - 3,227 : 57.65 :: 73.23 : 70.95 ... $3,263 / $3,350 Rise from Low 89.7%: 37.7% : 151% :: 29.1%: 29.5% MMI x46 / +31.8% LOW.......... : 11,345 - 2343 : 23.00 :: 56.71 : 54.77 ... $2,519 / $2,541 01/03/2010 : 21,873 - 3,254 : 58.40 :: 74.07 : 71.77 ... $3,301 / $3,275 01/10/2010 : 22,297 - 3,285 : 59.25 :: 74.87 : 72.69 ... $3,344 / $3,261 01/17/2010 : 21,654 - 3,237 : 56.10 :: 75.08 : 72.86 ... $3,352 / $3,424 01/24/2010 : 20,726 - 3,167 : 51.20 :: 76.17 : 74.09 ... $3,408 / $3,283 01/31/2010 : 20,122 - 3,197 : 49.15 :: 76.05 : 73.55 ... $3,383 / $3,215 02/07/2010 : 19,665 - 3,085 : 47.55 :: 76.67 : 74.25 ... $3,416 / $3,342 02/14/2010 : 20,269 - 3,132 : 50.60 :: 77.03 : 74.57 ... $3,430 / $3,234 02/21/2010 : 19,894 - 3,103 : 48.60 :: 77.26 : 74.74 ... $3,438 / $3,249 02/28/2010 : 20,609 - 3,158 : 52.45 :: 77.96 : 75.65 ... $3,480 / $3.303 03/07/2010 : 20,788 - 3,172 : 53.95 :: 77.01 : 74.72 ... $3,437 / $3,561 03/14/2010 : 21,210 - 3,204 : 54.70 :: 77.24 : 74.82 ... $3,442 / $3,267 03/21/2010 : 21,371 - 3,216 : 56.35 :: 78.63 : 76.43 ... $3,515 / $3,376 : $8,003 03/28/2010 : 21,053 - 3,192 : 56.05 :: 78.69 : 76.25 ... $3,508 / $3,442 : $8,010 Rise from Low 85.6%: 36.4% : 144% : 38.8%: 39.2% MMI x46 / +36.6% 04/04/2010 : 21,537 - 3,229 : 54.90 :: 78.64 : 76.26 ... $3,508 / $3,460 : $7,900e 04/11/2010 : 22,209 - 3,279 : 55.15 :: 78.48 : 76.11 ... $3,501 / $3,498 : $8,045 04/18/2010 : 21,865 - 3,253 : 53.10 :: 79.39 : 77.16 ... $3,549 / $3,457 : $8,313 04/25/2010 : 21,244 - 3,207 : 50.40 :: 78.77 : 76.47 ... $3,518 / $3,624 : $8,178 05/02/2010 : 21,109 - 3,196 : 49.85 :: 80.68 : 78.20 ... $3,597 / $3,479 : $8,406 05/09/2010 : 19,920 - 3,105 : 47.35 :: 79.86 : 77.42 ... $3,561 / $3,746 : $8,321 05/16/2010 : 20,145 - 3,123 : 46.55 :: 80.06 : 77.55 ... $3,567 / $3,735 : $8,313 05/23/2010 : 19,546 - 3,076 : 43.60 :: 80.32 : 77.67 ... $3,573 / $3,716 : $8,101 05/30/2010 : 19,767 - 3,093 : 46.80 :: 79.16 : 76.47 ... $3,518 / $3,533 : $8,309 06/06/2010 : 19,780 - 3,094 : 46.70 :: 79.48 : 76.88 ... $3,537 / $3,671 : $8,505 06/13/2010 : 19,872 - 3,101 : 46.60 :: 79.68 : 77.08 ... $3,xxx / $3,500 : $8,496 06/20/2010 : 20,287 - X,XXx : 46.20 :: 79.12 : 76.25 ... $3,xxx / $3,599 : $8,314 06/27/2010 : 20,691 - X,XXx : 47.65 :: 80.12 : 77.43 ... $3,xxx / $3,721 : $8,433 Rise from Low xx.x%: 36.4% : 1xx% : 07/04/2010 : 19,905 - X,xxx : 46.10 :: 80.15 : 77.33 ... $3,xxx / $3,620 : $8,117 07/11/2010 : 20,379 - X,xxx : 47.20 :: 80.90 : 78.62 ... $3,xxx / $3,711 : $8,161 07/18/2010 : 20,250 - X,xxx : 46.10 :: 81.18 : 78.65 ... $3,xxx / $3,575 : $8,595 07/25/2010 : 20,815 - X,xxx : 48.65 :: 81.88 : 79.35 ... $3,xxx / $3,777 : $8,541 08/01/2010 : 21,030 - X,xxx : 48.35 :: 82.14 : 79.73 ... $3,xxx / $3,834 : $8,431 08/08/2010 : 21,679 - X,xxx : 49.60 :: 83.51 : 81.26 ... $3,xxx / $3,850e $8,500e 08/15/2010 : 21,072 - X,xxx : 49.90 :: 83.36 : 80.86 ... $3,xxx / $3,757 : $8,320 08/22/2010 : 20,981 - X,xxx : 48.00 :: 83.57 : 81.03 ... $3,xxx / $3,809 : $8,490 08/29/2010 : 20,597 - X,xxx : 47.00 :: 83.61 : 80.87 ... $3,xxx / $3,804 : $8,529 09/05/2010 : 20,972 - X,xxx : 47.65 :: 84.54 : 81.79 ... $3,xxx / $3,856 : $8,299 09/12/2010 : 21,257 - X,xxx : 49.35 :: 84.16 : 81.30 ... $3,xxx / $3,904 : $8,327 09/19/2010 : 21,971 - X,xxx : 50.30 :: 83.99 : 81.09 ... $3,xxx / $3,873 : $8,371 09/26/2010 : 22,119 - X,xxx : 53.40 :: 85.34 : 82.32 ... $3,xxx / $3,949 : $8,622 10/03/2010 : 22,358 - X,xxx : 55.25 :: 84.85 : 81.83 ... $3,xxx / $3,925 : $8,359 10/10/2010 : 22,944 - X,xxx : 55.95 :: 85.09 : 82.25 ... $3,xxx / $3,940 : $8,400E 10/17/2010 : 22,944 - X,xxx : 56.05 :: 85.13 : 82.35 ... $3,xxx / $3,915 : $8,536 10/24/2010 : 23,758 - X,xxx : 57.55 :: 85.62 : 82.88 ... $3,xxx / $3,924 : $8,682 10/31/2010 : 23,096 - X,xxx : 55.05 :: 86.87 : 84.00 ... $3,xxx / $3,955 : $8,870 11/07/2010 : 24,877 - X,xxx : 59.75 :: 87.55 : 84.62 ... $3,xxx / $3,954 : $9,029 11/14/2010 : 24,223 - X,xxx : 59.35 :: 87.41 : 84.70 ... $3,xxx / $4,002 : $9,282 11/21/2010 : 23,606 - X,xxx : 56.85 :: 88.24 : 85.62 ... $3,xxx / $4,012 : $9,225 11/28/2010 : 22,877 - X,xxx : 54.50 :: 88.58 : 86.16 ... $3,xxx / $4,096 : $9,092 12/05/2010 : 23,321 - X,xxx : 54.45 :: 89.41 : 86.75 ... $3,991 / $4,030 : $9,772 12/12/2010 : 23,163 - X,xxx : 53.15 :: 88.27 : 84.99 ... $3,xxx / $3,975 : $9,684 12/19/2010 : 22,715 - X,xxx : 52.50 :: 87.48 : 84.26 ... $3,xxx / $4,008 : $9,134 12/26/2010 : 22,834 - X,xxx : 52,85 : Query: Past CCI Data :: http://202.72.14.23/p/cci/SearchHistory.aspx

Hong Kong Property Charts, Data & Commentary Centaline's Property Index ... http://www.centadata.com/cci/cci_e.htm HK-12 / Henderson Land ... chart HK-1 / Cheung Kong ... chart HK-83 / Sino Land ... chart HK-10 / Hang Lung ... chart / HK Residential & Mainland China Shopping ctrs HK-688 / China Overseas Land ... chart / Mainland property

There is seasonality in the markets, but in a weak market, we may get no Spring rally at all, and when those numbers come out and get seasonally adjusted, they could get adjust downwards. To me, I would rather watch the prices people actually pay, since no one can buy or sell at a "seasonally adjusted price." Smart buyers are aware of seasonality too, and they may await the arrival of seasonally slack time to but, and grab a bargain.

Good points. When the big 5% jump in Rightmove's October asking prices was announced, I characterised it a "seasonal, trying on" of higher prices, which would be quickly rejected - and so it was. I wasn't aware of the time lag in the other figures. With the big move down in Rightmove, I think we can safely ignore the dated Academetrics index. I have to wonder how long those Builder share prices can go on levitating, when most everything else looks bearish. And they haven't yet broken above key resistance. Blips like these have been "faded" several times in the last few years Mon.: Rt'move : London : Hometrack chg./ Na'wide H.old.SA Hali.SA Hali.nsa: H&Nindex : mom :DelusIdx 2010 S. : : 229,767 : 399,019 : 157,600*-0.4% / 166,757 = n/a = 161,974 163,639 : £165,198 :- 1.49% :139.1% O : : 236,849 : 418,778 : 156,200* 0.9% / 164,381 = n/a = 164,949 165,275 : £164,828 :- 0.02% :143.7% : Hi Delus. N : : 229,379 : 420,248 : 155,575 - 0.4% / 163,398 = n/a = 164,708 163,268 : £163,333 :- 0.91% :140.4% : D : : 222,410 : 408,248 ===================================== mom: -3.04%: - 2.86% : Est.DI: 136.2 % / : -0.60%: = n/a = : +1.82%: -1.4% : - 0.91% The Delusion Index is dropping fast as those "aspirational" asking prices are cut / read: "unrealistically high"

There are some interesting CROSS-currents in the market now The average price of a home in England and Wales climbed for a seventh month, gaining 0.2 percent, research company Acadametrics Ltd. and LSL Property Services Plc said in an estimate released today. U.K. producer prices increased for a second month in November, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. A heads-up, or a false indicator? Taken together with the rise in the Homebuilder shares, it could be a heads-up. Meantime, the average of the H&NIndex shows we are clearly in a Crash Cruise speed phase, with prices down -0.9% in November