drbubb

BINGO ! The days of illusion are ending. Reality is back (& Brown is a fading memory.) Even more than that ! Here's the actual NSA data : Mo. Year Index %.chg Std Price Nov 2009 536.0 +1.7% 165,617 Dec 2009 541.3 +5.6% 167,260 2010 Jan 2010 535.7 +3.6% 165,514 Feb 2010 537.2 +4.3% 165,997 Mar 2010 543.1 +6.8% 167,808 Apr 2010 552.7 +8.7% 170,772 May 2010 547.6 +5.2% 169,204 Jun 2010 538.5 +4.8% 166,395 Jul 2010 544.8 +4.8% 168,331 Aug 2010 546.6 +4.3% 168,889 Sep 2010 529.6 - 0.7% 163,639 Oct 2010 534.9 - 0.1% 165,275 Nov 2010 528.4 - 1.4% 163,268 ========== This is the lowest figure of the year, 2010. In fact, you would need to go back to Aug. 2009 to find a lower figure. The 2009 low was Feb : 157,066, and Nov.2010 is only 3.95% above that. This should undermine psychology, since no one can say UK home prices are rising any more, and just a 4% drop, would wipe out the entire "Dead Cat bounce rally", and that could happen by Q1 or Q2 next year. The -1.4% drop in Halifax's November NSA index is a big score in the Bear's column. By my reckoning, the H&N Index was down -0.9%, and we have moved into Crash Cruise speed ! Mon.: Rt'move : London : Hometrack chg./ Na'wide H.old.SA Hali.SA Hali.nsa: H&Nindex : mom :DelusIdx 2010 S. : : 229,767 : 399,019 : 157,600*-0.4% / 166,757 = n/a = 161,974 163,639 : £165,198 :- 1.49% :139.1% O : : 236,849 : 418,778 : 156,200* 0.9% / 164,381 = n/a = 164,949 165,275 : £164,828 :- 0.02% :143.7% : Hi Delus. N : : 229,379 : 417,279 : 155,575 - 0.4% / 163,398 = n/a = 164,708 163,268 : £163,333 :- 0.91% :140.4% : ===================================== mom: -3.15%: - 0.36% : Est.DI: 139.2 % / : -0.60%: = n/a = : +1.82%: -1.4% : - 0.91%

My hat off to Cgnao for such an excellent call in his chart from Sept. 6th

Also take a look at these recent comments on DrBubb's Diary about the possible Double Top & the slowdown (1) (2) (3) Personally, I have record cash holdings now, and would be ready, if we see a big drop. So Pigs might get slaughted in a big down move for Gold and/or stocks

... another post from the other thread on Main , for the record here ... At some point, actual economics will trump all the sentimental influences. And I do think that when yoy growth goes negative is where the bullish sentiment really melts and the slide can pick up steam. I have put the two charts together since they show that the speed of selling is now worse (ie slower) than it was for a similar level of year-on-year change: To me, this suggests that people do have some memory of the firts leg down, and they are beginning to become reluctant to buy again. The fact that Time-to-Sell is almost a perfect mirror image of the 6 months change is interesting. But I also find interesting how the momentum to the downside is perfectly reflected on both. It looks steady and relentless in both legs. Last time there was a brief pause around yoy flat. Will we see it in prices? Perhaps not. Since Time-to-Sell has gone rising steadily. I think people need to remind themselves what Time-to-Sell represents. It is a ratio of Supply divided by Sales. The More supply and the less sales, the higher the Ratio goes. So what is happening now is that sales are deteriorating while supply is increasing. Here's an excerpt from the recent November 10th Home report: "Overall prices of homes on the UK market appear to be levitating... Early indications show that buyer interest is waning in the face of high stock levels on estate agent books. Price-cutting of property on the market continues to increase in frequency (a new 21 month record for October fueling the growing 'discount culture' in the UK housing market. . . . Typical (median) Time on Market for unsold properties has risen a further 9 days since last month and now stands at 118 days. Meanwhile the average (mean) Time on Market is also up 8 days to 192 days. These figures are consistent with the observation that somewhat fewer properties are entering the marketplace after the summer surge and those that are currently for sale are spending more time in agents' portfolios." /source: http://www.home.co.uk/asking_price_index/HAPIndex_NOV10.pdf What stopped the freight train to the downside last time was a move to ultra-low rates. That trick has been tried (along with the ramping up of Housing Benefits), and the BofE cannot cut rates to negative numbers. Maybe this time prices will need to fall all the way down to genuinely affordable before the downwards momentum will be stopped.

BACKUP for UKtrap Data ===== ======================== DATA BANK: / WHAT HAS HAPPENED since 2009: Mon.: Rt'move : London : Hometrack / Na'wide H.old.SA Hali.SA Hali.nsa: H&Nindex : mom :DelusIdx When?: 18th? - 18-20th : - 25 - 30th chg / -28th ? : Next mo.on 8th? 2009 J. : : 213,570 : 386,653 : 158,200 - 1.0% / 150,501 159,818 163,945 163,966 : £155,159 : = n / a : 137.6% F : : 216,163 : 387,988 : 157,000 - 0.8% / 147,746 160,327 160,104 159,208 : £153,477 :- 1.08% :140.8% : LOW M : : 218,081 : 398,867 : 156,100* -0.6% / 150,946 157,326 157,622 157,066 : £154,066 :+0.38% :141.6% A : : 222,077 : 387,161 : 155,600* -0.3% / 151,861 154,716 154,663 157,156 : £154,508 :+0.29% :143.7% M : : 227,441 : 397,646 : 155,600*+0.0% / 154,016 158,565 159,111 160,869 : £157,442 :+1.90% :144.5% J. : : 226,436 : 397,140 : 155,650 +X.X% / 156,442 157,713 158,445 158,807 : £157,624 :+0.12% :143.7% Jl : : 227,864 : 402,761 : 155,650 +X.X% / 158,871 159,623 159,749 160,686 : £159,778 :+1.37% :142.6% A : : 222,762 : 387,265 : 155,806 +0.1% / 160,224 160,973 160,947 161,930 : £161,077 :+0.81% :138.3% S : : 223,996 : 390,768 : 156,118 +0.2% / 161,816 163,533 163,487 164,854 : £163,335 :+1.40% :137.1% O : : 230,184 : 416,157 : 156,430 +0.2% / 162,038 165,528 165,349 165,430 : £163,734 :+2.44% :140.6% : RM HIGH N : : 226,440 : 403,069 : 156,743 +0.2% / 162,764 167,664 167,451 165,617 : £164,191 :+0.28% :137.9% D : : 221,463 : 398,426 : 156,900*+0.1% / 162,103 169,042 168,763 167,260 : £164,681 :+0.30% :134.5% Mon.: Rt'move : London : Hometrack chg./ Na'wide H.old.SA Hali.SA Hali.nsa: H&Nindex : mom :DelusIdx 2010 J. : : 222,261 : 407,731 : 156,116 - 0.5% / 163,481 169,777 169,484 165,514 : £164,497 :- 0.11% :135.1% : HFsa HIGH F : : 229,398 : 427,987 : 156,584 +0.3% / 161,320 166,857 166,703 165,997 : £163,659 :- 0.51% :140.2% M : : 229,614 : 417,461 : 157,054 +0.3% / 164,519 168,521 168,433 167,808 : £166,164 :+1.53% :138.2% A : : 235,512 : 421,822 : 157,368 +0.2% / 167,802 168,202 168,212 170,772 : £169,287 :+1.88% :139.1% : H&N HIGH M : : 237,134 : 420,203 : 157,682 +0.2% / 169,162 167,570 167,287 169,204 : £169,183 :- 0.06% :140.2% J. : : 237,767 : 429,597 : 158,700*+0.1% / 170,111 166,203 166,351 166,395 : £168,253 :- 0.55% :140.5% Jl : : 236,332 : 422,248 : 158,500 - 0.1% / 169,347 167,425 167,536 168,331 : £168,839 :+0.35% :140.0% A. : : 232,241 : 405,058 : 158,200 - 0.3% / 166,507 = n/a = 168,124 168,889 : £167,698 :- 0.68% :138.5% S. : : 229,767 : 399,019 : 157,600*-0.4% / 166,757 = n/a = 162,096 163,639 : £165,198 :- 1.49% :139.1% O : : 236,849 : 418,778 : 156,200* 0.9% / 164,381 = n/a = 164,919 165,275 : £164,828 :- 0.02% :143.7% : Hi Delus. N : : 229,379 : 417,279 : 155,575 - 0.4% / 163,398 = n/a = ===================================== mom: -3.15%: - 0.36% : Est.DI: 139.2 % / : -0.60%: = n/a = : +1.82%: +1.0% : - 0.02% *actual figure Hometrack index; others are calculated from mom changes. Criteria for indices : http://www.houseprice.org.uk/articles/house-price-indices/ Comparison of Criteria : http://firstrung.co.uk/page.asp?pagekey=115 Other : http://www.acadametrics.co.uk/acadHousePrices.php === Tags: Halifax, Nationwide Index, SA Seasonally Adjusted, NSA, Bull Trap, UKtrap Links: Halifax : Nationwide : Rightmove : Hometrack Mortgage Approvals = : - 2006 - / - 2007 - / - 2008- / - 2009- / - 2010- / J. : 121,000 : 121,000 : 73,000 : 31,000 : 48,198 : F : 115,000 : 120,000 : 72,000 : 37,937 : 47,094 : M : 117,000 : 114,000 : 64,000 : 39,230 : 48,901 : A : 108,000 : 109,000 : 58,000 : 43,201 : 49,871 : M : 115,000 : 113,000 : 42,000 : 43,414 : 49,815 : J. : 119,000 : 113,000 : 36,000 : 47,584 : 47,643 : Jl : 117,000 : 112,000 : 33,000 : 50,123 : 48,722 : A : 118,000 : 106,000 : 32,000 : 52,317 : 47,372 : S : 124,000 : 100,000 : 33,000 : 56,215 : 47,474 : O : 129,000 : 089,000 : 32,000 : 57,345 : 47,185 : N : 131,000 : 083,000 : 27,000 : 60,518 : D : 115,000 : 072,000 : 31,000 : 59,023 : /source: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/graphs-mo...e-approvals.php

The roof falls in on Ireland's Millionaires Row In 2007 Shrewsbury Road in Dublin was the sixth most expensive street in the world. Now, post-crash, homes have been abandoned and the tycoon residents have run for the hills ... The sharpest drop has been at the top of the market." == == "...where prices have crashed by 50% or more." "... the sixth most expensive street in the world, ahead of Beverly Hills's Carolwood Drive and St Moritz's ritzy Via Suvretta. ...where prices have crashed by at least two-thirds. 'It's right in the centre of things; it's a street that's always achieved top prices'..." /source: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/dec/0...-crisis-bailout At some stage in a crash, you see that: The High End falls more, because wealth has been destroyed for everyone and even many of those who had money find they have to downsize their commitments. Some jeave the country for greener pastures elsewhere. While others are afraid to buy, and no long see property as a one way bet. Niall O'Farrell, the founder of a chain of formalwear shops, Black Tie, who stars on the Irish version of the television show Dragons' Den. O'Farrell is trying to sell his house – initially for €14m, although the price has been drastically cut in recent weeks to €8m. Derek Quinlan, the property magnate who part-owns Claridges hotel, is also looking for a buyer for his Shrewsbury Road residence, priced at €7.5m, after quitting Ireland in favour of Switzerland a year ago. Nobody is biting. A house hasn't changed hands on Shrewsbury Road for two years. The UK is probably AT LEAST 18-24 months away from this realisation. It happens closer to the end than the beginning of the slide. And it takes time to destroy long-held confidence.

I dont think that the BofE need to raise rates to cause a house price crash, though that would speed it up. The slide is altready underway, if you look closely. There's no need for yoy negative changes to see whjat is occurring. The following quote and comment comes from a new thread that I have started in the Main section, called "the politics of house price falls." And it suggests that the government doesn't need to "put a pin in" (ie raise rates) to burst the bubble - if they did that they would be accused of causing the problem. They can just sit back now and let it happen, and the blame will accrue to Labour, where it belongs. "the "burden of proof" is not on those expecting a big slide, it is now on those expecting stability or higher prices." - see below -0.5% can give you a crash if it continues long enough. But normally, it would pick up pace as the surplus supply increases and confidence erodes. Look what happened in from mid-2007: Mo'Yr Hali.ns Na'wide M Ave.H&N AveHN AyoY% Jul'7 200,578 184,270 J 192,424 +0.34% 10.84% Aug'7 201,081 183,898 A 192,490 +0.03% 10.36% Sep'7 200,168 184,723 S 192,446 -0.02% 9.09% Oct'7 197,817 186,044 O 191,931 -0.27% 8.10% Nov'7 194,258 184,099 N 189,179 -1.43% 5.00% Dec'7 195,333 182,080 D 188,707 -0.25% 5.60% (2008) Jan'8 191,275 180,473 8 185,874 -1.50% 4.05% Feb'8 193,448 179,358 F 186,403 +0.28% 2.45% Mar'8 190,619 179,110 M 184,865 -0.83% -0.14% Apr'8 190,952 178,555 A 184,754 -0.06% -2.38% May'8 186,482 173,583 M 180,033 -2.56% -5.46% Jun'8 181,765 172,415 J 177,090 -1.63% -7.65% Jul'8 178,440 169,316 J 173,878 -1.81% -9.64% Aug'8 175,408 164,654 A 170,031 -2.21% -11.67% Sep'8 173,350 161,797 S 167,574 -1.45% -12.92% Oct'8 168,158 158,872 O 163,515 -2.42% -14.81% Nov'8 162,848 158,442 N 160,645 -1.76% -15.08% Dec'8 158,437 153,048 D 155,743 -3.05% -17.47% (2009) Jan'9 159,818 150,501 9 155,160 -0.37% -16.52% Feb'9 159,208 147,746 F 153,477 -1.08% -17.66% Mar'9 157,066 150,946 M 154,006 +0.34% -16.69% In the early stages of decline, the mom changes bounced around, as they are bouncing around now. They settled into a hard-down condition beginning in May 2008, two months after the yoy change went negative. Perhaps yoy negative change is what is needed to destroy people illusions. Those who are paying attention to mom changes should not need to wait for a you negative reading to understand what is happening. It is already clear from the monthly data that we are headed towards negative reading, and it will take something like a "bullish miracle" to avoid that. With prices now falling, and about to pierce into yoy negative, and time-to-sell rising, the momentum is clearly down, and the "burden of proof" is not on those expecting a big slide, it is now on those expecting stability or higher prices. The sentiment is still too bullish, but that will erode over time under the drip-drip-drip of lower prices. Of course, I could be wrong, and if we now get 3-6 months of stability, the burden of proof will shift to the Bears. But I think that RB has been foolish in throwing in the towel just as the Bear case is winning through. It is as if he is showing himself to be a weather vane of sentiment, and not a man of conviction and careful analysis.

Not much can be done.... that makes political sense for those in power now. When Labour was still in power, and hoping to be re-elected, it made sense to do reckless things that propped up prices like: + Encouraging banks to lend beyond sensible LTV's + Discouraging foreclosures + Pushing up housing benefits Since all these things made many voters happy, and the damage that they caused was really only visible (to most) in hindsight/ Now the "political equation" is much different. I believe the Coalition knows that house prices need s bigger correction, and for them, it is better to get it started sooner, rather than later, so they can assign the blame for the bubble and a possible crash where in belongs: on Brown and BofE loose money. If they delay it another year or two, then Labour might escape blame. So the Coalition must think it is best to "take those pins out" now and aim them at the housing bubble (and also at their Gordon Brown voodoo dolls- he's a pathetic and "abysmal" creature, well-designed for blame that he richly deserves.) The crunch will come within the next few weeks, as year-on-year comparisons turn negative. Potential homeowners will step up their complaints about the lack of mortgages, but many will just see the negative comparisons, and decide it is better to simply wait for lower prices. Those who bought at high prices may ask the government to "do something." But with rates already at low levels, they cannot cut rates further, and forcing banks to "lend more" will not be sensible, since that would help delay the slide, and would not be consistent with the prudent image that the Coalition has worked so hard to portray. This chart from Hometrack speaks loudly: Supply is exceeding demand, and properties are languishing longer and longer on the market, waiting for the vendors to cut prices to a level that buyers are willing to pay. In a market with falling prices, buyers demand a bargain - a discount to compensate them for the risk of buying in a falling market. When rates were pushed down (and they remain at ultra-low levels), buyers had the incentive to buy from the argument that low rates made it cheaper to own than to rent. But 2011 may usher in lower rents (thanks to caps on Housing Benefits), and also buyers may be worried that the period of low rates is closer to the end than the beginning, and falling prices may persuade them that the "total return" of owning is negative, and is not a smart financial move any more. So will the Coalition stop the House Price Crash train once it is set in motion? I think not. I think they may even say something about how lower prices are good for First Time Buyers. These are the voters of the future. Their numbers are swelling every year, and old homeowners are going "off line", or losing interest in politics. The homeowning boomers no longer sit on the thrown of political influence, it is more of a mixed electoret, and so the Coalition may actuall do what makes sense for the future of the country, and let UK and Great London houseprices slide back to more affordable levels. Second leg down, here we come.

Welcome, Hattie Jakes It is good to see you as a posting member. Local area comments are welcome here, and perhaps you will find some other topics of interest. For instance, the Fringe Section has fascinated some

Sentiment is deteriorating again. Property supply is rising, and homes are slumbering on the market, awaiting price cuts. And this is DESPITE the continuance of ultra-low rates... /source: http://www.hometrack.co.uk/commentary-and-...ey/20101129.cfm How long before we go back to the sort of negative sentiment we saw at the bottom?

UNPINNED Goldfinger has unpinned this thread /source: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....showtopic=12377 If people want it move to another section, so it is easier to find, please suggest on the above thread, where you would like it moved. Or... If you feel it MUST be pinned, please register that comment too

UNPINNED Goldfinger has unpinned this thread /source: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....showtopic=12377 If people want it move to another section, so it is easier to find, please suggest on the above thread, where you would like it moved. Or... If you feel it MUST be pinned, please register that comment too

I reckon that despite falling demand, PRICES have been propped up by ultra-low rates. Sellers are unwilling to drop their prices, and buyers "overpay" because low rates make prices look affordable

This mindblowing to me, and maybe interesting to you too, MM:

Sounds crazy, eh? Iknow it may sound like "bragging" to some here, but there is a strange reality: I sold my UK property in 2001, and bought Gold shares, with the profits from the, I was able to buy 10 flats in Hong Kong in 2007-8. And those flats have outperformed UK property. I wish I could tell you what is screaming buy like precious metals were in 2001-4. I am searching for something ... It isn't Silver today - that's for sure. Silver today may be where Uk property was in 2004

Trend? Recent house price surveys have shown the effect of a lack of demand among buyers unable to secure a mortgage, as well as more properties coming onto the market. This has led to a stagnation, or slight dip, in prices in recent months. Paul Diggle, property economist at Capital Economics, said: "The second consecutive monthly drop in the Land Registry measure of house prices is further evidence that the devaluation is becoming more embedded. "The fact that house prices are still overvalued across a range of measures, combined with the poor outlook for the underlying economic drivers of the housing market, means that house prices are likely to fall considerably further next year." . . . The Halifax is introducing a new standard variable rate, known as the homeowner variable rate (HVR), from 11 January 2011. Anyone taking out a mortgage with the group from that date will revert to the new rate when their initial deal ends. The HVR will charge interest of 3.99%, compared with interest of 3.5% currently charged on the group's standard variable rate (SVR). This follows moves by Lloyds TSB, Cheltenham & Gloucester and Nationwide to replace their SVRs of 2.5% with ones charging 3.99% for new customers.

Short St. Joe, Long Getty a Good Real Estate Market Neutral Trade ? As I mentioned in a previous article, although my gut feeling is bearish right now, my gut doesn't have a great track record at market timing. Because of that, I've started putting cash to work in market neutral trades every couple of weeks. For today's market neutral trade I shorted St. Joe Co. (JOE) at $17.99 and bought an equal dollar amount of Getty Realty (GTY) at $29.03. GTY / Getty Realty Corp (NYSE) ... update I had bought puts on JOE last June, as I noted on Short Screen's message boards at the time, and sold them for a 39% profit in October, after David Einhorn presented his updated short case for JOE at the Value Investors Conference. As I blogged at the time, Einhorn’s take down was brutal. Market Folly has the audio of Einhorn’s presentation, along with the slide show that accompanied it here. If you’re pressed for time, just listen until he gets to slide #11 and the crowd erupts in laughter. Einhorn's short case for JOE, in a nutshell, is that the company's rural, Florida panhandle land costs more to develop than it's worth (he estimates the company's rural land, the bulk of its assets, is worth $7-$10 per share). The problem for bulls who believe that this land will be worth a lot more in the long term is that JOE's management has to sell tens of thousands of acres of it every year to cover its $50 million annual operating expenses. So it may not have any land left if and when Florida has another real estate boom. Audit Integrity gives JOE an Accounting and Governance Risk (AGR) score of 34, on a 100-point scale, which puts it in the "Aggressive" category. Insiders have been net sellers of JOE over the last three months, though net buyers over the last 12. The most prominent insider is the biggest institutional holder, Bruce Berkowitz's Fairholme Fund. JOE had been on my radar screen since last month as a short candidate for a real estate market neutral trade, but I had trouble finding a candidate for the long side. After not finding anything attractive among real estate management companies, I started looking at REITs and found Getty (GTY), which mainly owns gas stations. GTY has fairly low leverage for a REIT and currently yields 6.5%. It was one of the REITS Alan Brochstein mentioned in his recent Seeking Alpha article, 9 Obscure REITs Yielding More Than 5% With Low Leverage.

JOE's Mkt Cap : $1.61 Billion Shares OS---- : 92.74 Million x $17.36 Cost per acre : (1) :: $1,610 Million / 577,000 = $ 2,790 (2) :: $1,610 Million / 982,000*= $ 1,640 ======== *( 577,000 NW Fla. + 405,000 Gulf coast) With nearly a million total acres, St. Joe owns about 3% of the state of Florida.

Whoops! Change needed, now that you have "gone seasonal" on us:

I always wonder what your avatar will change to when the graph gets to the end of the arrow?

ANOTHER HIDDEN TAX in ripoff Britian ? Base is 0.5%. They are paying 0.0%. The mortgage rate they are charging is 2.5% and they say: "Nationwide also said it was losing out on 300 million pounds per year because of a pledge to cap its base mortgage rate at two percentage points above the Bank of England rate, relative to the typical 4 percent rate offered by other lenders." What a bunch of useless and inefficient lenders are these UK banks! Hong Kong banks charge 0.85% over their costs, and Mortgage rates here got down to 1.0%. Can anyone explain to me why UK banks needs such a huge margin? Why doesn't HSBC just take over the UK market, and push mortgage rates down to 2.0% or lower, and put these useless dinosaurs out of business? (After living in HK again for a few years, you lose patience with the heavy expenses and inefficiencies of backward third world countries like the US and the UK.)

BETTING on the low base... What if that view is wrong? UPDATE 2-Nationwide B/S sees no UK house price slump LONDON, Nov 23 (Reuters) - Nationwide Building Society [NAT.UL], Britain's second-biggest mortgage lender, reported a 26 percent jump in first-half profit, and said it did not expect big house price falls despite signs of property market weakness. Nationwide, which publishes a closely watched monthly house price survey, said on Tuesday major price falls were unlikely in 2011 because continued low interest rates would keep mortgatges affordable and prevent a flood of distressed sales. Mutually-owned Nationwide made an underlying pretax profit of 147 million pounds ($235 million) in the six months to end-September. The improvement reflected a 44 percent drop in bad debts as a partial recovery in commmercial property prices since mid-2009 helped more customers avoid defaulting on loans. Britain's retail banks have all reported stronger profits in the past year as tighter lending criteria and a tentative economic recovery have helped reduce loan impairments. Mortgage and savings-focused Nationwide, the country's biggest customer-owned lender, has emerged as a relative winner from the financial crisis, snapping up financially weaker rivals including the Cheshire and Dunfermline building societies. The Bank of England, which slashed interest rates to 0.5 percent during the crisis two years ago, was unlikely to start raising borrowing costs until the end of 2011, Nationwide said. "We think house prices will remain relatively flat for the next few months, with some possible downward migration, but nothing significant," chief executive Grahame Beale told reporters on a conference call. Surveys show house prices have been falling over the past three months, reflecting scarce mortgage finance and worries over the economic impact of government spending cuts aimed at reducing Britain's budget deficit. Nationwide also said it was losing out on 300 million pounds per year because of a pledge to cap its base mortgage rate at two percentage points above the Bank of England rate, relative to the typical 4 percent rate offered by other lenders. Over a third of Nationwide mortgage customers now pay the base rate, and more are choosing to revert to it when their fixed-term loans expire, the company said. ($1 = 0.6244 pound) /more: http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE6AM07C20101123

Andrew Sentance, who sits on the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), also said that keeping interest rates at record lows for too long could erode confidence in the central bank's 2% inflation target. "The longer we keep interest rates at an exceptionally low level, the greater is the risk that Bank Rate would need to rise sharply in the future, creating a serious setback to business and consumer confidence," he said. "We should seek to avoid such a sudden lurch in policy." Dr Sentance has been calling for a quarter-point increase in interest rates since June. He is the only MPC member to do so at a time when Britain's recovery has been in doubt due to aggressive fiscal tightening measures. However he added that there was a risk that forecasters were underestimating the strength of private sector demand, as they did in the 1990s recession. "There is a risk that we are making the same mistake again because of the preoccupation with downside risks following the financial crisis," he said. The Bank of England base rate has remained at 0.5% since March 2009, while inflation has been running above target all year and looks set to stay raised until the end of 2011. /see: http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Business/...Andrew_Sentance If he cannot spell a word, how can he get out a flawless Sentence?

Sure. Somebody has been selling it down!] I'm not ready to buy it yet. I would want to wait for the 3d.MA to stall out and comeback up and cross the 8d.Ma and for the 21dMA to flatten out. These will take time. Also, in the previous low the slode was breaked by 2 or 3 days of strong buying volume. We havent seen that yet either Then there's the need for some fundamnetal analysis - which I havent done yet By the time I am ready to buy it, Einhorn may be set to cover his shorts

Time to start watching JOE more closely again?