drbubb

(UK - Tools for assessing the ongoing health of the market: conventional versus my unconventional tools) When to buy: The tell-tale signs, per an HPC poster: 1. Unemployment stabilising: More people in work means there is an increased demand for properties and fewer repossessions. 2. A sharp increase in mortgage approvals: This shows that people want to start buying and this will get the market moving once again. 3. It becomes cheaper to buy than rent: People will realise they could own their homes for the same money they are paying to the landlord. 4. Rising consumer confidence: When people are feeling upbeat they are more willing to spend – whether that's in the shops or by making major purchases, such as a house. SOME good thinking here, but also a flawed understanding of the relationship between prices and sentiment . He seems to think that sentiment changes first at the low, and then prices begin to move up afterwards. And he is not paying sufficient attention to the long term cycle which moves the market. A brief bounce inspired by ultra-low rates, is not what is needed to start a new major cyclical upturn. = = = = = (My response - the above post is not looking at the Bigger Picture): This comment says: the time to buy is "When people are feeling upbeat they are more willing to spend". Just the opposite. If you wait for the clear improvement in mass sentiment, you will miss the bottom by many months. And reports of positive sentiment will continue to be heard after the market is rolling over. And there can be a brief multi-month fake-out rally, or a "dead cat bounce" in the midst of a larger downturn. This rise in confidence, together with (temporary) low interest rates, seems to have inspired a brief Dead Cat Bounce in UK house prices, which we predicted with confidence some weeks ago (early April 2009.) But anyone who buys now (expecting many years of continuous prices rises) will regret it when prices sink back. Why am I so confident prices are headed lower within the next year or two? Several reasons: + Less than two years off the cycle peak is not enough for a final low. I reckon it will take 4-5 years to reach a low. About 4 years after the peak is normal, in the property cycle, which normally lasts about 18 years, give or take. + And affordability ratio of 4.34 is just not low enough. At cycle lows, this will often come in at 3.00 times average incomes or lower. And with banks now lending prudently again, after re-learning the lessons of how reckless it was to throw away the rule book, they will probably remain prudent for another decade or two, until the current crop of bank managers have retired. This means those ultra-high ratios of 5x - 6x earnings that we saw at the peak of the bubble may not come back for decades. The peakees, who bought at the top were "stuffees", and unless they bite the bullet, and take their loss now, they are going to stay stuffees, and see their equity erode even further. + Interest rates are at record lows (ever, in the history of Britain!) This may sound like good news, but once you buy a property, if rates go back up you will pay more. So if you take on a level of debt that you can just afford, and rates rise, you are buying trouble. Not only that, every other buyer also looks at what mortgage they can afford, and so if others are overpaying, because they think rates will stay down, then prices will rise. And that dynamic, plus aggressive ramping by Estate Agents and others with vested interests is what has pushed up prices, into a Dead Cat Bounce. + When rates begin their inevitable ascent, probably by year-end, or in the first half, of 2010, you will see Uk home prices coming under substantial downwards pressure. I don't expect a bottom until 2011-13. Why not check out more articles on: GlobalEdgeInvestors dotcom, if you find this posting to be a rare breath of fresh air. (Lost HPC - the above was first posted in Mid-2009, and then wiped out by HPC mods in their purge of my material)

LONDON's "BULL TRAP" RALLY (e.g. the "Dead Cat bounce") - Is it over? I think it is ... Let's look at how I anticipated price moves often before they happened, using UK Builder share prices as my guide. = = = = = = = = I posted many times here (and on HPC) about my expectation for a so-called "Dead Cat bounce" in UK property prices. If you had read those posts carefully, you would have been able to get on the right side of that price move, and ride it through the end of 2009, and perhaps longer. 1/ March 2009 I began to signal the possibility of a Dead Cat bounce in late March 2009 with a post on HPC. I was answering a question: "Dr Bubb, you have previously considered shares in housebuilders to be an important bellweather for the future direction of HPI. They have risen significantly this past 2/3 months." DrBubb / Posted 29 March 2009: link : cache Not yet. A BUY signal hasnt been flashed yet. But it could happen soon. I am particularly watching Barratt, and comparing its price action to the 1 year (252day) MovingAverage : Barratt Dev'l (BDEV.L) ... update A move above key resistance near BDEV-120p / the 252d.MA (52 weeks) would be a sign that the "Bull Trap" move may be about to begin. . . . What I find very interesting is that Berkeley / BKG shares have recently flashed a "BUY", by exceeding their 252d.MA and that Tony Pidgley, BKG's chairman (who is well-known for his timing prowess) has recently said that UK property is near a cyclical Low. Fundamentally, I cannot see this as THE LOW, but I think that a nice Bull Trap is about to be set, and for a while Property buyers will think they 'caught the low', only to find themselves trapped in a losing investment when interest rates go back up." = = = = = = = = 2 A/ April 2009 - I saw that a major upthrust in Builders shares was starting: A WARNING to would-be homebuyers... A "Dead Cat Bounce" may soon be underway ! DrBubb / Posted 04 April 2009 on HPC : link : cache A Global "dead cat bounce" in property will soon be underway, I reckon. I make the argument for this elsewhere , we even recorded a podcast about it yesterday. For many, this bounce may give a last chance to sell, and reduce debt before the second leg down into a Greater Depression hits. . . . I really want to save UK people from a probable Bull Trap, which may will fall into, if they buy on this "Dead Cat Bounce". They will then watch with horror as prices start sliding again, when rates begin their inevitable rise, probably 9-18 months from now. I still expect a UK low no sooner than 2011, and very probably 2012-13, or later. ==== 2 B/ April 2009 On the early April thread announcing the Bull Trap, and you will see this in post #3: The Bellwethers should help tell us when to get out. Right now, the Bellwethers are signalling a "surprise bounce". How long might the bounce last? My guess is about 6 - 12 months, maybe 18. I think it will be very hard to buy, and resell, and get out with a decent profit. Let's face it, transaction costs in property are not cheap. = = = = = = = = 3/ June 2009 "wooble" Along the way, I had a brief "wobble", since I had done some scary reading about 1930 events that had convinced me that we might only see a 6-9 months rally in stocks. If a second leg down in stocks began in summer 2009, I did not want people exposed to an overly bullish property forecast. But I was careful to suggest that a quicker downturn in UK property would have to be signalled first by a drop in the UK Builder share prices. (note: some of my detractors on HPC picked up on this "wobble", and misquoted my comments without the careful language I had used.) Dr Bubb / Posted 09 June 2009 : link I think the DC Bounce will be over before the summer is gone, but as for the specific TURN date, I am watching UK homebuilding stocks to give me an early warning for the Turn. So for those who want to get advance notice of the turn, I would say: "BUILDERS - need watching" / The others are still holding up, but I note that... Berkeley Group (BKG) ... update ...has slipped back below its 252d.MA. This shouldnt be happening if the property Low is now in place.. I would expect to see it back up above 900p very soon, but if it slips lower, that would be an early sign that the DC Bounce may be losing its momentum soon = = = = = = = = 4/ October 2009 Since stocks held up through the summer, I did not see the conditions that I thought would signal a new property downturn until late October: It's nearly over, the Dead Cat Bounce, Property should peak by year end (my forecast) Posted 28 October 2009 : link : cache I cannot ignore those price falls in the Builder shares any longer. I think it is time to flash : the REVERSAL WARNING ! Having called the Dead Cat Bounce was underway on April 4th, I now think it is time to say: I believe we are seeing the end of it. I believe now that UK property should peak before year end, and within the first quarter of 2010, you will once again see a sliding market. The following charts of the Builders are my own prima facia evidence of a market that has lost its upwards momentum: All Together : BDEV + PSN + BKG + TW ... update / intraday . . . post #2: Posted 28 October 2009 Here are the charts that convinced me to make the Call ... orig. image The very high volume on the selloff is the main thing convincing me that turn is happening. The Builder stocks are being ditched with real enthusiasm = = = = = = = = 5/ October 2010 Looking back at the price action we have seen during 2010: Whilst UK Builders peaked in late October 2009, and most broke through their 252d/1-year AMs around the same time as Barratt did (April 2010), the major property indices began to roll over in the first half of 2010. Here are the peaks in the main benchmarks that I follow: + Halifax SA peaked in Jan. 2010 - at £169,484 + My H&N index (average of Halifax and Nationwide) peaked in April 2010 at £169,187 + Rightmove's index peaked at 237,767, and their Greater London at 429,597 in June 2010 It should be clear by now whose prognosis has been worth paying attention to, that downside momentum in the indices is increasing: + Hometrack has reported in September the biggest drop in 18 months. + Rightmove has reported a 7.1% drop in Greater London over 3 months + Nationwide's own report says: Martin Gahbauer, chief economist at Nationwide, said September had proven to be an uneventful month for house prices. He said: "The seasonally adjusted price index for a typical UK property was essentially unchanged in September, edging up by a marginal 0.1 per cent from its August level. "The three month on three month rate of change, a good indicator of the near term price trend, fell from 0.0 per cent in August to -0.9 per cent in September. "This represents the first negative reading for the three month rate of change since May 2009 and is consistent with the clear loosening of housing market conditions observed over the summer months." To me, we are moving into a period of continuing slides, where prices may fall and average of 0.5-1.0% per month or more. I call that rate of decline "Crash Cruise Speed."

CALLING THE TOP ON LONDON PROPERTY - Has not been easy As anyone who trades in markets will tell you: It is easier to pick bottoms than tops. And picking the top on the London property market has been a frustrating game. Only Fred Harrison, the proponent of the 18 year cycle, seems to have gotten right. I think that I am better at calling turns now, but it has been a long learning process, and no doubt I will continue to make mistakes in the year to come. Having said that, I have made money on every one of the 12 properties that I have bought and sold, so I really cannot complain. Back in 2001 when I decided to sell my Kensington property, I wanted to leave a dark lower ground flat that I was living in, and was looking at what I could do with the money (buy Gold shares!), than I was thinking about the length of property cycles. Many would say that UK property was cheap then, as hindsight has shown it to be. But that wasn't so easy to say that about a dark flat in overheated Kensington. : q1-2009 source Back in 2001, the ratio of Property prices to incomes was near 4:1, the Long Term average, but it was much higher than that in London. Most importantly, I was able to cash a huge profit, by selling the property for more than 4-times what I had paid for it 16 years earlier. As someone who then had no job and no regular salary, I could not allow a profit of that size slip away. I needed the money to launch my career as a private investor and trader. Talking Property "on the boards" Throughout my ten years as a fulltime private investor, I have been a regular participant on internet chat boards. I find it useful to develop my ideas to the point that I am ready to share them with others. And the reactions that a poster receives are a sort of reality-testing process. (BTW, sometimes it is more useful as a contrarian indicator than a useful clue about where you should invest your money.) So throughout the last decade, I have posted my property forecasts regularly on various internet forums. And along with charts, I would usually post a reasoned argument about why I was expecting a particular move, up or down. These forecast have inspired debate, controversy, and sometimes outright abuse. My overwhelming sense from the reactions that I read, is that few reactions were made with anything like the care that I take in making the initial forecast. I don't think the the average internet poster on most chatboards is ready to put in the work needed to develop an independent forecast (though GEI and GPC may prove an exception.) Most would rather just make a quick comment and move on. Perhaps that is easy to do when there is no money at stake. But I have heard it said that most people spend more time studying which sound system or car to buy, than they do studying property markets before they plunk down 3-5 years of salary. That's strange behavior. One of my first cyclical property forecast was done in about 2004. I had looked at about 2-3 decades of UK property price data and concluded that there was a 15-16 year cycle in UK property, and it was due to peak in 2004 or 2005. Moreover, I was looking at various charts showing the ratio of House prices to Incomes, and by then the Ratio was stretching into record territory, and it looked as if prices might soon rollover. In fact, there was a multi-month pause in property prices in 2005, and by late summer 2005 there were many thinking prices could go negative on a year-on-year basis. I had begun to play around with UK homebuilders as a "early warning system" for changes in the property market, and my charts looked as if key support levels were being threatened. .. The Bank of England may have been seeing some of the same signs, and in August 2005, they cut base rates by 0.25% perhaps because they were worried that the UK economy was headed towards recession. The decision was a controversial one, since the BofE governor Mervyn King voted against the rate cut. Later, after it touched off a renewed boom in property prices King and his colleagues agreed it was a mistake, but the damage was already done by the time they saw it. The Builder Bellwether - a very brief "false break" in Oct.2005 : Cal.2005 : last 12mos Ironically, the property market did not recover straight away, and the UK homebuilder stocks actually drifted lower (on light volume) during September and October. One of my principal cyclical indicators has been the 12 months moving average (252 days), which I apply to various stock charts. In late September 2005 this was broken for a day or two. So eager had I anticipated this, that I boldly proclaimed that a property correction had arrived "on schedule" in late 2005 and the market might be soon headed into a period of "crash cruise speed" with monthly falls averaging 0.5 - 1.0% per month. But I had spoken too soon. The UK homebuilder stocks bounced from oversold, and went into a nice sharp rally upwards. By November it was clear that it was more than short-covering, and by December I had to backtrack on my forecast of a forthcoming drop. I vowed to be a bit more careful in the future, and wait for a break of more than a day or two, and to pay more attention to trading volumes, which were light during that October "false break." I eventually turned to study the cyclical theories of Fred Harrison. He has developed a theory that Property prices move in a cycle of about 18 years. At the time of the apparent "false break" in late 2005, he was saying that the property market rally still had two years to go. He expected it to peak in 2007 or 2008. I bought his book and studied his cycles, and eventually (in mid-2008) wound up making three videos for YouTube talking about his cycles : From: : : : . One of the very interesting parts of his theory is that the last part of the upcycle, lasting about 2-3 years, is the so-called "Winners Curse" period. Anyone who buys at the time feels lucky, since there is limited supply for sale, and great competition amongst buyers. But when the markets down, they will soon find themselves nursing losses. That proved to be a rather good description of the 2005-7 period. During the 32 months from Jan. 2005, the H&N Index rose a handsome 23.5% to its August 2007 peak at Pds.192,490. UK Builders compared w/ Key MA's: BDEV, PSN, BKG, TW Fortunately, I did not give up on my Builder Bellwether indicator. It gave a great early warning of the property Peak in the first half of 2007. Key stocks like BDEV and PSN had peaked in January or February, and then they slid below the 1year/252d MA in early June, on rising volume - giving a clear warning that property prices were about to peak. I telegraphed this warning on HPC, GEI and on other websites that I visit. Some listened and became cautious on the markets. But some of the usual bulls on the websites dismissed the warnings, without bothering to understand the importance of the heavy selling volume in Builders stocks, and the fact that interest rates were rising rather than falling as they had during the "false break" of 2005. Just after this warning, I recorded a podcast with Dominic Frisby and the "bullish" John Wriglesworth for CWR ( July 2007 ) and I went through the litany of reasons why I expected a top, and a possible property crash in 2008. So keen was I to get the warning out, I learned how to make videos, and recorded my very first one, taking my parts of the CWR podcast, and adding some key charts. This has to be one of the clearest warnings of the impending peak in UK property prices, which came a few months later in August 2007. From: / CWR-July 2007: Moonbound or Pear-shaped The August 2007 peak was an important one. From there, the slide soon picked up steam. The first shock drop was in January 2009, when the NSA index fell by Pds. 2,832, that's -1.5% in a single month, then during 2008 the slide speeded up. The drop for 2008 was a whole was Pds.32,964, or -17.5%. And by the low in February 2009, the H&N Index was down to Pds. 153,477, -20.3% off its peak. Over 18 months, that's a nice average "crash cruise speed" of -1.13% per month.

BUBB's BLOG - First Entry Let me begin with a "shocking" admission: I sold my London property in 2001. If I was given a Pound coin for everytime somebody on HPC, SP, or elsewhere jumped on this fact, and went on to use it as part of an argument to try and undermine my forecasts, then I would be wealthy man on these payments alone. Let me tell you this: The premature sale was NOT a mistake. Here's why: I cashed an approximate 4x profit on the sale, and it gave me much of the start-up capital that I needed for other investments - mainly in the Gold mining sector. HUI - the index of Unhedged Gold Miners : update HUI : 12mos I took my equity out of UK property and put it into Gold shares, and gold shares in 2001 - right near the bottom in the precious metals cycle. My gold share portfolio went up much more than the value of my UK property would have done, so that was a happy choice. But I did not give up entirely on property. I moved away from the UK to HK in 2006. I watched and studied the HK property market for several months. In early 2007 I decided to shift a portion of my wealth out of shares into property in Hong Kong, as I saw potential for an interesting rising in HK property prices, even as UK property appeared to be peaking that year. Over the next year or so, my partner and I were able to buy a total of 10 properties, all 2BR and 3BR flats. I can tell you that my equity in those 10 properties was worth more than that single property in London. On top of that I retained a nice portfolio of Mining related shares, and paid all my living expenses for years. So I must have been doing something right. We have now sold 9 out of our 10 properties in Hong Kong, each one at a profit (albeit some sales were with tiny profits.) We retain the most valuable HK property, as our home and it is virtually debt-free, with a miniscule mortgage so we retain a relationship with our bank. And right now, I am sitting on goodly amount of cash, mostly in C$ and HK$, as well as some residual mining shares. I also hold a decent number of puts on the stock indices, as a hedge for those mining shares, and a possible source of profits if stock markets fall. My blog here will not be primarily about my own investments, but I thought some readers might like to know the larger context. Investing is not an easy game, and I don't see it getting any easier in the years to come. So I feel I am fortunate to have been able to make a decent living at this game, while building up enough capital that I can consider myself "comfortable" now, and able to concentrate on my private investments and developing this website. In the next few panels, I will give some background on how my views of the UK property market have evolved, and also some views on the HK property market.

: DrBubb's Property Blog ==================================================== Link to here: http://tinyurl.com/GPC-Diary / Data: http://tinyurl.com/UKtrap'>http://tinyurl.com/UKtrap SUMMARY of Updated views : (end Sept. 2010) + UK: Has started the second leg down into possible 2012-13 Low + US: Bottom not in place yet. Maybe 2011-12 + HK: Another dip coming before cyclical blow-off? FAVORITE CHARTS UK Market - H&N Index is average of Halifax and Nationwide (more charts to come) DATA UK: http://tinyurl.com/UKtrap HK: xxx US: xx Spline's site :: London Population :: http://www.londononline.co.uk/factfile/historical/

Great to see you here, Pent up. We have bulls and bears on GEI, and they seem to get along okay.

Welcome, grey water plumber. I hope you will post from time-to-time.

Welcome, I think you will fit in well on GEI and GPC too. Have you any thoughts on where one might find good property investments in this dangerous climate?

Welcome to GPC ! - Newcomers Introduce yourself A site for serious discussions about property ============================== : Time to Get Serious ? Hello to all existing GEI members, lurkers, and new visitors to Global Property Cycles. The founder and friends of GEI have decided to open a new section on GEI for those with a special interest in Property. Bulls, Bears, and those who are trying to make up their minds are all welcome here. But disrespect for other posters is not welcome, and if we see it, you can expect the Mods to be "trigger happy." We really want to encourage thoughtful and intelligent commentary, whatever your market view. Because at the moment, Global property markets are fraught with both danger and opportunity. For those who have posted on other chatboards, let's go back to the sort of collegial and gentlemanly discussions about the state of the markets, that you may recall from years ago.

I will move this to the new GPC section

In fact, BDEV and PSN held up until last October What's next - as we head into October 2010? ... update : BDEV-2009/10

And now back down at a similar rate, I think

What's happening in those pubs? ROOTS by 'Show Of Hands' - WHERE IS ENGLAND? The Country of 'England' No Longer Exists! From: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ccrPXP2xZ6Q

M, Have you heard that: http://indiadaily.com/comp.asp ...is meant to have a load of information about wormholes & time travel etc EXAMPLES ======= 1/ Visit of super advanced extraterrestrial life forms in 2012 from Galaxy Abell 1835 IR1916, 13.2 billion light years from earth? India Daily Technology Team / Jul. 27, 2010 Visit of super advanced extraterrestrial life forms in 2012 from Galaxy Abell 1835 IR1916, 13.2 billion light years from earth? It is the furthest galaxy from the earth. It was formed roughly 700 million years after the big bang. The life forms in this Galaxy is invisible. They harness gravity waves. They live simultaneously in matter and anti-matter universes. They exchange lives between dimensions without a reboot or death as we know. The UFOs span across the ten dimensions. They travel into Hyperspace and are guided from the chilled universe below the Hyperspace. They communicate via integrated consciousness. They harness zero point energy from quantum vacuum. They defy the chaotic nature of the quantum mechanics. They live in the world of perfect or zero entropy. They travel by bending space and time and taking short cuts across the higher dimensions. They communicate with telepathy and base their civilization on the principle of the eternal continuity in the singularities of integrated consciousness. They access the central black holes of every Galaxy and control the fine tuning of the universe. Their civilization prosper in the dark energy. They use time dimension to create and recreate the formation and reformations of Galaxies, star systems, and Black Holes. 2/ The UFOs use artificial wormholes and change their characteristics at the entry and exit India Daily Technology Team / Sep. 12, 2006 The UFOs use artificial wormholes and change their characteristics at the entry and exit. They create controlled Blackhole at the entry and a controlled Whitehole at the exit. The UFOs first accelerate to the center of the tunnel using gravity of the Blackhole characteristics and then use the controlled exotic matter phenomenon to get out of the tunnel through the Whitehole. Artificial wormholes simulating Blackholes are needed for space travel and time travel within the physical universe. That is exactly what the alien civilizations use to travel instantaneously through time and space. In case one wants to travel to the parallel universe, the real and not simulated Blackhole can be used. That may be the way our soul moves from physical universe to the parallel universe of higher dimension. That may be the reason why people with near death experiences see the white light at the end of the tunnel. They also report first acceleration and then deceleration and finally acceleration again to move out of the Whitehole to the parallel universe.

BUYING SOME GDXJ PUTS here ... update : daily - as a partial hedge for CDNX, and my Junior miners

MM, Are you aware of any cases where VAWT's are operating flawlessly? The few cases that I have seen have been problematic.

... .. .

That OLD INFLATION nonsense, once again... From Timm's thread: A Question for Bears Wages are rising in China, and the Rmb will probably strengthen too. That means higher prices for imports from China. And that will probably put upwards pressure on CPI. But how does rising CPI help home prices? If UK incomes are "flat to down", and CPI rises because imports from China and India cost more, this will squeeze UK wage earners, and may even force them to cut the amount they spend on housing. (Think: stagflation.) There is a rather strange idea that you still hear coming up of the mouths of rather stupid EA's: "Bet on inflation, it will inflate away your housing debts." It did work in the 1970's, when wages were rising fast, and so the income in people's hands was going up faster than their debts, and this rise in incomes underpinned house price inflation. It should be clear that we are in a different sort of world now. Incomes are barely rising, as inflation is being seen in some areas, but not in house prices (since the spring peak.) I expect infllation to be bad for homeowners in two ways: + It will tend to force interest rates back up, from recent hostorically low levels + If inflation is of the 'cost-push" variety, and incomes do not rise to keep pace, there will be less income for housing related expenditures The squeeze is on. Beware the stupidity contained in the statements escaping from lips of Estate agents !

Which Flawed index should one use? "Christmas"? I presume you mean Chistmas 2012 or 2013? Else you may be far too early. But, hey, its your money If you are going to "adjust" home prices by anything, use average salaries, since I cannot see how rising prices for potatoes or candy bars is going to help people to buy property more easily. And what do you think is going to happen to average salaries over the next 2-3 years?

(Please do not put words in my mouth.) Barratt's fall over the last several months, anticipated the falls that we have already seen in Rightmove. If Rightmove-London is going to bounce from here, we will probably see it in BDEV first. And if it is going to dive - likewise BDEV may tell us. Presently, BDEV is in a holding pattern, but I do not expect it to stay there for much longer.

Watch Barratt - BDEV-chart At the moment, it is having trouble holding its head up. If/when it goes into freefall (w/ big voluem), then the next wave of sentiment-busting falls should be clearly underway

Very possibly. The peak for Greater London was : Pds.427,987 in Feb.2010 We are likely to have a very large drop recorded when the new index for Feb. 2011 is released.

Thanks for the comment, Meralti. I have to say that I am a little surprised that so little has been made (here & elsewhere) of the very deep 3 months drop in Gr-London bids. I think it may be a precursor to some very big falls, if the momentum continues If the 3mo-MA stays pink, it is going to soon bring some very deep RED to that chart. It has been a long time since we saw any significant BLUE on the chart == == == RENTS - can this be true ? The average for rent price for property in Greater London is £1,223.01, which means an increase of 5.30 % respecting the previous month (August). In the last 3 months (June 2010 - September 2010) it has increase of 13.02 %. /source: http://homes.trovit.co.uk/567/greater-lond...nt-price-county What are these figures? They start in June 2010? They must be more frrequently than weekly... ======= 1033.73, 1025.05, 1025.05, 1028.14, 1029.69, 1032.9,1038.66,1032.1,1024.61,1010.28,984.06,960.98,964.13,966.11,1008.9,997.47, 1017.13,1005.04,1000.85,1005.07,997.8,992.42,998.83,995.66,1005,1015.04,1101.46,1 107.74,1127,1131.93,1150.13,1149.11,1149.21,1151.87,1068.87,1073.04,1083.46,1101. 39,1070.36,1090.33,1108.19,1103.22,1114.15,1057.93,1115.12,1105.88,1105.55,1112.4 9,1127.8,1126.45,1058.92,1081.69,1064.53,1095.7,1111.33,1077.17,1085.42,1076.4,10 84.18,1132.21,1117.65,1085.89,1190.18,1203.52,1161.28,1196.57,1197.98,1220.28,120 4.77,1225.55,1197.92,1194.73,1211.49,1192.41,1198.36,1196.71,1189.47,1205.84,1159 .72,1205.86,1215.56,1236.78,1178.68,1171.74,1188.2,1185.87,1186.88,1189.32 1033.73 to 1189.32 - is a massive 15.1% change for 3 months. I simply cannot believe these figures - are they made up?

Paint it RED ! Greater London's falling fast Biggest 3 month fall yet in Rightmove's index =================================== Rightmove won't tell you this, but I will. I have been "unpacking" the data in their news releases, and I find something very interesting, which has not been mentioned in the watered down Press Releases that they have been given. Rightmove announced just two days ago: + a -1.07% monthly drop in their National index, + a -1.49% monthly drop in their index for Greater London These are big falls, but the year-on-year index changes are still positive - so no reason for London homeowners to be concerned, right? Wrong ! Take a look at the 3 months change of -7.1% for London. That is the biggest slide ever in the life of their index which goes back to 2002. That's an average of -2.4% per month, more than double the "1% speed limit" than we normally see during a crash. And if it does not bounce back very fast, it will be telling us that London may be set for one of the biggest price drops in History. Fasten your seat belts ! For you music fans out there, here's my forecast, with some help from Mick Jagger: Don't be depressed. Remain cautious. Do not buy recklessly, and stay prepared for opportunities down the road.

No, same time frame When they are all moving in the same direction there is "harmony in the markets", and they move quickly