drbubb

Some thought it was flawed by being "too optimistic". (And also to much tied to Greater London to match the more-regionally oriented indices, like Nationwide and Halifax Just as an exercise, I compared RM's index (blue) with: 50%-Nationwide, 25%-Halifax & 25%-RM-Greater London The composite was a rather good fix suggesting that RM simply has a heavier weighting towards London Here's another comparison, which includes the H&N-Index (here, x 132% to make it comparable with Rightmove)

Sadly, the reckless Jerkimers will not be the only ones to suffer. When their equity disappears, they will wind up underwater, and soon after - they will be in a position to default on their loans. Chances are, the banks will wind up with hundreds of billions, even trillions of new losses. And they will ask for another bailout, costing another big sum for tax payers. So the reckless homebuyers, who over-paid and borrowed too much, will wind up costing innocent prudent citizens plenty. The homeowners will suffer, but the bankers, builders, and brokers, who were all paid too much for doing bad business, will probably get off scot-free.

The facts fit so far: Fear will spread more widely when London prices (per Rightmove) are falling in sync with Halifax & Nationwide indices You will note that the 12mo. MA was broken, but that the 12mo-MA (red line) hardly dipped below a sideways move on Greater London.. UPDATE : I think the downtrends may accelerate when 12mo.MA's are broken, & the MA's turn negative: Index====== : latest - month / chg. : 12Mo. Ma / chg. Rightmove.. : 229,767 - Sep -1.07% : 230.557 +0.21% - MA broken ! Rt-London.. : 399,019 - Sep -1.49% : 414,065 +0.17% - MA broken ! Nationwide. : 166,507 - Aug -1.68% : 165,081 +0.32% Halifax-Nsa : 168,889 - Aug +0.33%: 167,173 +0.35% H&N-Index.. : 167,698 - Aug -0.68% : 166,127 +0.33%

Collecting London data Jan 2002 226,000 122,908 183.9% Feb 2002 225,000 128,490 175.1% Mar 2002 233,500 131,085 178.1% Apr 2002 242,000 136,969 176.7% May 2002 245,000 141,333 173.3% Jun 2002 250,672 145,201 172.6% Jul 2002 251,866 146,854 171.5% Aug 2002 250,782 147,957 169.5% Sep 2002 253,000 151,429 167.1% Oct 2002 256,537 155,467 165.0% Nov 2002 265,725 155,199 171.2% Dec 2002 259,001 156,084 165.9% Jan 2003 262,735 155,481 169.0% Feb 2003 265,899 158,639 167.6% Mar 2003 258,962 160,536 161.3% Apr 2003 259,244 161,370 160.7% May 2003 257,640 163,393 157.7% Jun 2003 257,026 165,511 155.3% Jul 2003 262,400 166,207 157.9% Aug 2003 258,702 166,244 155.6% Sep 2003 251,472 165,265 152.2% Oct 2003 262,868 170,720 154.0% Nov 2003 265,794 170,547 155.8% Dec 2003 258,571 171,055 151.2% Jan 2004 259,429 170,935 151.8% Feb 2004 270,019 174,506 154.7% Mar 2004 275,459 179,570 153.4% Apr 2004 278,098 184,582 150.7% May 2004 286,630 188,962 151.7% Jun 2004 288,385 193,965 148.7% Jul 2004 291,160 196,198 148.4% Aug 2004 278,519 192,335 144.8% Sep 2004 276,664 192,316 143.9% Oct 2004 281,064 193,536 145.2% Nov 2004 275,394 190,329 144.7% Dec 2004 274,343 189,733 144.6% Jan 2005 274,089 189,509 144.6% Feb 2005 279,867 193,830 144.4% Mar 2005 284,242 194,962 145.8% Apr 2005 282,215 197,539 142.9% May 2005 284,071 198,147 143.4% Jun 2005 282,118 198,642 142.0% Jul 2005 284,887 196,649 144.9% Aug 2005 280,452 196,282 142.9% Sep 2005 279,891 195,407 143.2% Oct 2005 281,927 196,348 143.6% Nov 2005 291,904 197,855 147.5% Dec 2005 287,367 196,181 146.5% Jan 2006 291,047 196,319 148.3% Feb 2006 295,685 201,600 146.7% Mar 2006 300,719 203,399 147.8% Apr 2006 303,837 205,674 147.7% May 2006 308,715 209,829 147.1% Jun 2006 315,224 211,442 149.1% Jul 2006 324,216 217,580 149.0% Aug 2006 319,428 214,040 149.2% Sep 2006 328,607 214,566 153.1% Oct 2006 335,507 218,954 153.2% Nov 2006 344,949 222,333 155.1% Dec 2006 355,097 221,751 160.1% Jan 2007 356,192 222,859 159.8% Feb 2007 359,989 224,802 160.1% Mar 2007 366,302 228,183 160.5% Apr 2007 379,846 236,490 160.6% May 2007 385,199 237,361 162.3% Jun 2007 387,898 239,317 162.1% Jul 2007 394,730 240,001 164.5% Aug 2007 394,268 241,474 163.3% Sep 2007 384,439 235,176 163.5% Oct 2007 403,637 241,642 167.0% Nov 2007 412,731 239,986 172.0% Dec 2007 384,632 232,396 165.5% Jan 2008 398,476 230,428 172.9% Feb 2008 402,233 237,856 169.1% Mar 2008 407,383 239,655 170.0% Apr 2008 403,545 239,521 168.5% May 2008 404,541 242,500 166.8% Jun 2008 399,010 239,564 166.6% Jul 2008 400,258 235,219 170.2% Aug 2008 379,162 229,816 165.0% Sep 2008 394,248 227,438 173.3% Oct 2008 395,560 229,691 172.2% Nov 2008 390,340 222,979 175.1% Dec 2008 391,721 217,808 179.8% Jan 2009 386,653 213,570 181.0% Feb 2009 387,988 216,163 179.5% Mar 2009 398,867 218,081 182.9% Apr 2009 387,161 222,077 174.3% May 2009 397,646 227,441 174.8% Jun 2009 397,140 226,436 175.4% Jul 2009 402,761 227,864 176.8% Aug 2009 387,265 222,762 173.8% Sep 2009 390,768 223,996 174.5% Oct 2009 416,157 230,184 180.8% Nov 2009 403,069 226,440 178.0% Dec 2009 398,426 221,463 179.9% Jan 2010 407,731 222,261 183.4% Feb 2010 427,987 229,398 186.6% Mar 2010 417,461 229,614 181.8% Apr 2010 421,822 235,512 179.1% May 2010 420,203 237,134 177.2% Jun 2010 429,597 236,332 181.8% Jul 2010 422,248 236,332 178.7% Aug 2010 405,058 232,241 174.4% Sep 2010 399,019 229,767 173.7% Oct 2010 Nov 2010 Dec 2010 ====== The Pct peaked at 187% (feb.2010), and is now falling back fast, with the drop in London prices

Answer: Crash Cruise speed is an average fall of about -1% per month, or more. Per Rightmove : London's running at over 2%, or DOUBLE the speed limit - that's fast !

"Rm -1.1%" I still think price falls will average -1% per month over the next 2-3 years == == == I originally posted this on : a HPC thread. But TPTB there have now set up a mechanism which automatically transforms "tinyurl" to *******, so I wrote: (For collected historical data, try : tiny url dotcom /UKtrap ) Like the bl@@dy us-govt, HPC seems bent on supression == == == London's CRASHING ! Just look at this data: Mon.: Rt'move : London / Na'wide H.old.SA Hali.SA Hali.nsa: H&Nindex : mom :DelusIdx 2010 J. : : 222,261 : 407,731 / 163,481 169,777 169,484 165,514 : £164,497 :- 0.11% :135.1% : HFsa HIGH F : : 229,398 : 427,987 / 161,320 166,857 166,703 165,997 : £163,659 :- 0.51% :140.2% M : : 229,614 : 417,461 / 164,519 168,521 168,433 167,808 : £166,164 :+1.53% :138.2% A : : 235,512 : 421,822 / 167,802 168,202 168,212 170,772 : £169,287 :+1.88% :139.1% : H&N HIGH M : : 237,134 : 420,203 / 169,162 167,570 167,287 169,204 : £169,183 :- 0.06% :140.2% J. : : 237,767 : 429,597 / 170,111 166,203 166,351 166,395 : £168,253 :- 0.55% :140.5% Jl : : 236,332 : 422,248 / 169,347 167,425 167,536 168,331 : £168,839 :+0.35% :140.0% A. : : 232,241 : 405,058 / 166,507 = n/a = 167,953 168,889 : £167,698 :- 0.68% :138.5% S. : : 229,767 : 399,019 / mom: -1.07%: - 1.49% // -1.68% : = n/a = :+0.25% +0.33% ...And chart suggests a glut of property for sale: / Large Version Better lower those prices, if you want to make a sale ! The uptrend may be breaking now

Yes, I have seen those. In fact, I briefly invested in a company that had one - they went Bust, eventually

PREDICTED PRICE RISES around the world The following table shows Knight Frank’s predictions for home prices for a selection of markets: Market----- 2010 / 2011 Hong Kong... 18. :12.0 Russia......... 8.8 :11.3 Malaysia...... 0.0 :10.0 Sweden....... 4.0 : 6.0 China.......... 6.5 : 5.0 Singapore.... 10. : 3.0 Switzerland. -5.0 : 3.0 U.K. .......... -3.3 : 2.0 U.S. .......... -1.0 : 1.0 Canada........ 3.5 :-0.9 Spain.......... -4.0 :-2.0 Ireland........ -11. :-3.0 /source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-13/h...-rate-risk.html

This looks like a brief Calm before the storm. I observe that Halifax index is already off its high of April (NSA) and January (SA), and I believe that it may be slower to show an impulse move at the Turns, and that is why I use the average of Halifax & Nationwide in my work. The H&N Index was... Mon.: Rt'move: Na'wide H.old.SA Hali.SA Hali.nsa: H&Nindex : mom :DelusIdx 2010 J. : : 222,261 : 163,481 169,777 169,484 165,514 : £164,497 :- 0.11% :135.1% : HFsa HIGH F : : 229,398 : 161,320 166,857 166,703 165,997 : £163,659 :- 0.51% :140.2% M : : 229,614 : 164,519 168,521 168,433 167,808 : £166,164 :+1.53% :138.2% A : : 235,512 : 167,802 168,202 168,212 170,772 : £169,287 :+1.88% :139.1% : H&N HIGH M : : 237,134 : 169,162 167,570 167,287 169,204 : £169,183 :- 0.06% :140.2% J. : : 237,767 : 170,111 166,203 166,351 166,395 : £168,253 :- 0.55% :140.5% Jl : : 236,332 : 169,347 167,425 167,536 168,331 : £168,839 :+0.35% :140.0% A. : : 232,241 : 166,507 = n/a = 167,953 168,889 : £167,698 :- 0.68% :138.5% mom: -1.73%: -1.68% : = n/a = :+0.25% +0.33% /source: http://tinyurl.com/UKtrap That's down: -0.68% in August. The falling Rightmove & Delusion Index is also signalling a possible turn My homebuilder bellwether, Barratt / BDEV.L, has paused ... update But I note that the recent big volume days have been to the downside. A confirmation that a bigger slide is underway might be if BDEV slides thru support near BDEV-92p with rising volume. On the other hand, an upside breakout with volume, would signal that the topping process will take longer.

This looks like a brief Calm before the storm. I observe that Halifax index is already off its high of April (NSA) and January (SA), and I believe that it may be slower to show an impulse move at the Turns, and that is why I use the average of Halifax & Nationwide in my work. The H&N Index was... Mon.: Rt'move: Na'wide H.old.SA Hali.SA Hali.nsa: H&Nindex : mom :DelusIdx 2010 J. : : 222,261 : 163,481 169,777 169,484 165,514 : £164,497 :- 0.11% :135.1% : HFsa HIGH F : : 229,398 : 161,320 166,857 166,703 165,997 : £163,659 :- 0.51% :140.2% M : : 229,614 : 164,519 168,521 168,433 167,808 : £166,164 :+1.53% :138.2% A : : 235,512 : 167,802 168,202 168,212 170,772 : £169,287 :+1.88% :139.1% : H&N HIGH M : : 237,134 : 169,162 167,570 167,287 169,204 : £169,183 :- 0.06% :140.2% J. : : 237,767 : 170,111 166,203 166,351 166,395 : £168,253 :- 0.55% :140.5% Jl : : 236,332 : 169,347 167,425 167,536 168,331 : £168,839 :+0.35% :140.0% A. : : 232,241 : 166,507 = n/a = 167,953 168,889 : £167,698 :- 0.68% :138.5% mom: -1.73%: -1.68% : = n/a = :+0.25% +0.33% /source: http://tinyurl.com/UKtrap That's down: -0.68% in August. The falling Rightmove & Delusion Index is also signalling a possible turn My homebuilder bellwether, Barratt / BDEV.L, has paused ... update But I note that the recent big volume days have been to the downside. A confirmation that a bigger slide is underway might be if BDEV slides thru support near BDEV-92p with rising volume. On the other hand, an upside breakout with volume, would signal that the topping process will take longer.

Yes, Amazing. If a 5% gross yield is a sort of breakeven proposition (that's a rent = 1/240th of the property valuation), it is astonishing that people would accept only half of that and tie up their property, instead of selling. This is like a collective fantasy : So certain are people that "property prices will rise in the long term", that they will subsidise tenants to an extraordinary degree to hold onto a property. The reality from here may be that prices resume their slide, and valuations fall progressively, month by month for 2-3 years or longer. It is a great time to have your capital somewhere else, even just in cash, but out of a falling asset. Many people would happily pay a rent equal to more than a 5% yield, in order to sidestep the prices falls. In effect, the rent is not only the price of living, but also an insurance premium you pay, to have someone else hold onto the asset that is losing value. As more landlords see that, they will sell down their properties, to escape the losses. By the time the slide is done, LLs will want a premium to the fair running yield, to compensate for the risk that property prices will fall.

I am planning to record a conversation with Gonzalo Lira today - he of the "Way Hyperinflation Happens" fame. If it goes well, it will come out as a podcast on GER

Mon.: Rt'move: Na'wide Hali.SA Hali.nsa: H&Nindex : mom :DelusIdx Jl : : 236,332 : 169,347 167,425 168,331 : £168,839 :+0.35% :140.0% A. : : 232,241 : 166,507 167,953* 168,889 : £168 mom: -1.73%: -1.68% : +0.74% : +1.47% *Halifax seems to have changed all its SA figures for 2010 (& 2009) === === There's no need to change the H&N index, since it uses NSA data Mon.: Rt'move: Na'wide H.old.SA Hali.SA Hali.nsa: H&Nindex : mom :DelusIdx When?: 18th? - 28th ? : Next mo.on 8th? 2009 J. : : 213,570 : 150,501 159,818 163,945 163,966 : £155,159 : = n / a : 137.6% F : : 216,163 : 147,746 160,327 160,104 159,208 : £153,477 :- 1.08% :140.8% : LOW M : : 218,081 : 150,946 157,326 157,622 157,066 : £154,066 :+0.38% :141.6% A : : 222,077 : 151,861 154,716 154,663 157,156 : £154,508 :+0.29% :143.7% M : : 227,441 : 154,016 158,565 159,111 160,869 : £157,442 :+1.90% :144.5% J. : : 226,436 : 156,442 157,713 158,445 158,807 : £157,624 :+0.12% :143.7% Jl : : 227,864 : 158,871 159,623 159,749 160,686 : £159,778 :+1.37% :142.6% A : : 222,762 : 160,224 160,973 160,947 161,930 : £161,077 :+0.81% :138.3% S : : 223,996 : 161,816 163,533 163,487 164,854 : £163,335 :+1.40% :137.1% O : : 230,184 : 162,038 165,528 165,349 165,430 : £163,734 :+2.44% :140.6% : RM HIGH N : : 226,440 : 162,764 167,664 167,451 165,617 : £164,191 :+0.28% :137.9% D : : 221,463 : 162,103 169,042 168,763 167,260 : £164,681 :+0.30% :134.5% =========== Mon.: Rt'move: Na'wide H.old.SA Hali.SA Hali.nsa: H&Nindex : mom :DelusIdx 2010 J. : : 222,261 : 163,481 169,777 169,484 165,514 : £164,497 :- 0.11% :135.1% : HFsa HIGH F : : 229,398 : 161,320 166,857 166,703 165,997 : £163,659 :- 0.51% :140.2% M : : 229,614 : 164,519 168,521 168,433 167,808 : £166,164 :+1.53% :138.2% A : : 235,512 : 167,802 168,202 168,212 170,772 : £169,287 :+1.88% :139.1% : H&N HIGH M : : 237,134 : 169,162 167,570 167,287 169,204 : £169,183 :- 0.06% :140.2% J. : : 237,767 : 170,111 166,203 166,351 166,395 : £168,253 :- 0.55% :140.5% Jl : : 236,332 : 169,347 167,425 167,536 168,331 : £168,839 :+0.35% :140.0% A. : : 232,241 : 166,507 = n/a = 167,953 168,889 : £167,698 :- 0.68% :138.5% mom: -1.73%: -1.68% : = n/a = :+0.25% +0.33% :

READ THE CHART ! It whispers its messages for those clued up Here's Barratt Development / BDEV.L ... update : Longer Term : Last 12 months : 6mos It looks to me like we just had a "fake out" bounce on light volume, and the NEXT LEG DOWN is about to begin. If it breaks the recent lows with high volume, that should be a clear signal IMHO.

The attitude ("I want full asking price") will get chipped away: 1/ Properties will not sell, and EA's will lose interest in helping those vendors with "unrealistic" prices 2/ EA's will begin talking prices down (in conversations with vendors) 3/ More and more bearish headlines will show up in the press The Market will seek the level that permits the most business activity (ie property sales), and that means LOWER prices == == Tell him: "Someone on my website said: The Job of the Estate Agent in a falling market is to talk the sellers down. Are you willing to do your job? If not, I will find a agent who is." (you might put the point more politely.) Finally, BE PATIENT. It takes time to turn the Titanic. It is turning, but is not yet full speed ahead for falling prices. Crash Cruise speed is coming. and it will take many months to whack off 20%, if the market slides at 1-2% per month.

Good find ! "No sales without price cuts", should be the new mantra of EA's everywhere. This change in attitude WILL bring prices down. In fact, I think you will find the press covering the new attitude of Agents soon too, since the EA's will want to get the word out, to make their price cutting-efforts easier. In fact, the whole thing now will be to "create value" in the minds of the buyers, and they will want to see a "lower than last done" price as an incentive to buy. Remember: this month's price cuts (to below market) creates a new lower market level which must be beat, to attract next month's round of buyers.

... from DrB's Diary ... 1/ Indeed, it has broken a trendline. Thanks for the chart and comment. Did you look closely at mine? In a position like this, it is not uncommon for a Ratio to make a brief "false break", and then move to the opposite side. This week will be interesting. 2/ And so I did, and made a 7-figure profit when I sold it! Much of that profit is now sitting in cash awaiting a better investment opportunity 3/ If you are wanting to see Silver up, then you'd better hope that Bonds/TLT will drop below the gap it filled on Friday All the best rallies in Silver happened when TLT was going sideways or down. So if TLT jumps, Silver may have trouble making any upside. Friday's SLV volume was decent, but less than the last high.

As we have discussed before - you seem to be a level-headed guy, well able to cope with the challenges of home owning, and paying down a mortgage. And as you say: You are BUYING A HOME, not speculating on property. Personally, I look at things a bit differently - perhaps because I have moved around so much, and am less attached emotionally to any particular place - and my partner's views are similar to me own. She loves where we live, but would like a bigger flat in the same complex. So if we can make some money from buying and selling property, and "trade up" someday, she would be very happy. So good luck with your home. But don't expect to make money on it. Here's the latest chart - thru August, including an Estimate of Pds.167,500 for Halifax The recent HPI data looks like this: Mon.: Rt'move: Na'wide Hali.SA Hali.nsa: H&Nindex : mom :DelusIdx When?: 18th? - 28th ? : Next mo.on 8th? 2010 A : : 235,512 : 167,802 168,202 170,772 : £169,287 :+1.88% :139.1% : H&N HIGH M : : 237,134 : 169,162 167,570 169,204 : £169,183 :- 0.06% :140.2% J. : : 237,767 : 170,111 166,203 166,395 : £168,253 :- 0.55% :140.5% Jl : : 236,332 : 169,347 167,425 168,331 : £168,839 :+0.35% :140.0% A : : 232,241 : 166,507 ====== ======: £167,000est mom: -1.73%: -1.68% : +0.74% : +1.47% I think a break of the 12 month's moving average of about Pds.166,000 will probably happen in September. and that will give a signal that the second leg of the House Price Crash is well and truly underway.

Beautiful. Only sunrise over smoggy Mongkok can match it This place (Kowloon Wall City) doesn't exist any more, but it gives you an idea of the beauty here

The market is weak, and it may not accommodate their selling price expectations ! Perhaps that EA was good at "talking buyers up" until Q1-2010, and is now good at talking the sellers down

I get your point, of course. But you could also they, their real job is to get the sale done. And in a FALLING market such as the UK now, where Buyers gain by waiting, it means: + Get the Buyer to bid firm, and stay firm (at a "reasonable" price not too far below last done), and + Talking the Seller down to hit the "reasonable" bid ALL ELSE, is basically a waste of time and energy, and a denial of the realities of the current market.

WILL WE SEE A SEA CHANGE in how EA's talk to clients? Combined with the very sharp drop in transactions, this means that Housing Demand is disappearing fast. If EA's want to stay alive, they are going to have to get VERY AGGRESSIVE at talking down selling prices ! I have a simple theory: + In a bullish market, the job of the agent is to talk the buyers up to/near the Seller's price, and + In a bearish market, the job of the agent is to talk the sellers down to/near the Buyer's price. I am sure that all agents know this, whether consciously, or unconsciously. Anyway, I think you are about to see a DRAMATIC CHANGE in how EA's describe the market, especially to sellers, compared with how they approached it 2-3 months ago, when some still though the market was rising. == == == *somebody must be smoking good stuff, and it isn't me: Minus 0.9% - is not right ! / If you compare £166,507, with July's £169,347, that's down 1.68% in just one month ! That's a rather MASSIVE DROP- almost -2% mom, if you forget about those so-called "seasonal" adjustments.

I don't know what a VAWT might be. Do you have access to Skype where you are?

I found this link - but it appears to be an old one (2008) and very brief: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/ufo-disclosur...mmad-mansouryar It starts off with someone called "Dean", with MM talking about wormholes on a recording in clear English. ...With a desire to turn his work to Alternative Energy. == Here's the newer one: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/ufo-disclosur...-mansouryar.mp3 But you need to go about 2/3rds of the way in, and miss all the "aquatic" stuff at the beginnning This show is badly in need of editing. It takes time to do that, but it is worth the effort, since it makes it more listenable. == == I listened to it: Be careful, MM. These guys sound like "bullshit artists" (ie not serious people.) And I think they will waste your time, and they will deliver nothing. I think they may be wanting to use your reputation as the so-called "Iranian Einstein", to open doors for themselves. I hope I am wrong, but when they dropped in talk of a "Nobel prize", it sounded very suspicious, and not at all serious to me. I can assure you, that these guys will know nothing about how one really gets a Nobel prize. Anyway, I liked hearing your voice. You sound like a sincere and decent guy. Please tell us about about progress you may make in Alternative Energy areas. I do not want you to reveal any secrets, just to give us the headline news of your progress.

Charles Nenner Sees Dow Falling to 5000 in Two Years Aug. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Charles Nenner, founder of the Charles Nenner Research Center, talks about cycle forecasting and his forecast for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. He speaks on Bloomberg Television's "On The Move" with Francine Lacqua. (Source: Bloomberg) /See VIDEO: http://www.bloomberg.com/video/62419728/ "still risky to be long gold" "the end level we are looking for on Gold is $2500... but not right now"